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Here's why U.S. oil production cannot increase significantly even with WTI above $80/b. For full presentation:

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Anas Alhajji

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51,771 просмотров • 1 год назад •via X (Twitter)

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I cannot stress enough ! The situation will remain positive for NXXT Prices of fuel will be high That’s great news for the us economy Why ? Around $65 WTI was likely profitable for a lot of existing U.S. oil production, but not attractive enough for every producer to aggressively drill new wells. That is the key distinction: Existing wells already pumping: many U.S. producers could still cover operating costs at much lower prices, roughly $34–$47 per barrel depending on basin. So selling oil around $65 was still profitable for a lot of current production. New wells / new drilling: the average breakeven to profitably drill new U.S. wells was more like $62–$70 WTI in the Dallas Fed’s Q1 2026 data. So $65 was basically around the threshold: decent for strong acreage, but not a huge money-printing environment across the whole industry. So the clean read is: At $65, U.S. oil was generally not “unprofitable.” It was more like good enough to keep a lot of production alive, but only moderately attractive for new growth drilling, especially outside the best shale acreage. That also helps explain why U.S. production still stayed high: the EIA said U.S. crude output rose to a record in 2025, with the Permian driving much of the growth. A simple way to think about it: $40-ish WTI = many existing wells survive $65-ish WTI = decent, but selective for new drilling $75+ WTI = much stronger incentive to expand drilling So your sentence is close only if you mean “$65 was not highly profitable enough to unleash maximum U.S. drilling.” But for the broader U.S. oil business overall, $65 was still profitable in many cases.
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I cannot stress enough ! The situation will remain positive for NXXT Prices of fuel will be high That’s great news for the us economy Why ? Around $65 WTI was likely profitable for a lot of existing U.S. oil production, but not attractive enough for every producer to aggressively drill new wells. That is the key distinction: Existing wells already pumping: many U.S. producers could still cover operating costs at much lower prices, roughly $34–$47 per barrel depending on basin. So selling oil around $65 was still profitable for a lot of current production. New wells / new drilling: the average breakeven to profitably drill new U.S. wells was more like $62–$70 WTI in the Dallas Fed’s Q1 2026 data. So $65 was basically around the threshold: decent for strong acreage, but not a huge money-printing environment across the whole industry. So the clean read is: At $65, U.S. oil was generally not “unprofitable.” It was more like good enough to keep a lot of production alive, but only moderately attractive for new growth drilling, especially outside the best shale acreage. That also helps explain why U.S. production still stayed high: the EIA said U.S. crude output rose to a record in 2025, with the Permian driving much of the growth. A simple way to think about it: $40-ish WTI = many existing wells survive $65-ish WTI = decent, but selective for new drilling $75+ WTI = much stronger incentive to expand drilling So your sentence is close only if you mean “$65 was not highly profitable enough to unleash maximum U.S. drilling.” But for the broader U.S. oil business overall, $65 was still profitable in many cases.

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