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Hormuz traffic remains constrained Traffic remained active through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb on 2 August, but the two corridors continued to present distinct risk profiles. Hormuz recorded nine confirmed transits, including two sanctioned and two shadow fleet vessels. Seven crossings used the Iranian Unilateral Scheme, while...

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🚨🇾🇪🇮🇷 BREAKING | A Yemeni government official has told Agence France-Presse that the Iran-backed Houthis have seized Mayun, also known as Perim Island, giving them control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Two Yemeni government sources also told Reuters that government forces withdrew from the island, while the Houthis say they will soon announce a “large and significant” military operation. The development comes as the Houthis now control almost the entire Yemeni Red Sea coastline. Perim sits directly inside the roughly 29-km-wide Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint and physically divides it into two shipping channels, dramatically increasing Houthi leverage over passing traffic. At the same time, the Financial Times reports that Gulf states are considering talks with Iran next week over the future of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, with Oman seeking a meeting between GCC and Iranian foreign ministers. Any further Houthi escalation around Bab el-Mandeb could complicate those efforts considerably. 🔥 Strategically, this is one of the most consequential territorial shifts of the entire Yemen war. Saudi Arabia’s western oil-export route through Yanbu was designed partly to bypass Hormuz, but greater Houthi control around Bab el-Mandeb now places pressure on that alternative exit as well. Iran does not need either chokepoint to be formally closed; making both routes dangerous enough to raise insurance, freight and energy costs may be sufficient. Brent crude has meanwhile climbed above $106, underlining how quickly military control of maritime chokepoints can translate into global economic pressure.

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