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Hot Edging Videos➡️ ➡️Full edging sessions with daddybear ➡️3-4 times weekly upload ➡️Content never published in public before #GayUK #GayLondon #UKGay #GayAustralia #GayMelbourne #GaySydney #GayOrlando #GayMiami #GayNewYork

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this app makes $550k/month selling adults an AI imaginary friend. Tolan shows you "$0.00" pre paywall. then features comparison. then a reminder guarantee. then the paywall. $550k/month. Onboarding: ➡️ opens with a cinematic animation ➡️ ATT prompt fires ➡️ name + age captured early ➡️ push notification opt-in: “…an update from their world” ➡️ "do you have an invite code?," manufactured exclusivity ➡️ AI chat replaces multiple-choice questionnaire voice or text responses to psychological audit ➡️ iOS rating prompt drops mid-onboarding ➡️user names the alien, selects its voice ➡️ tap-and-hold "hatching" mechanic to meet their Tolan Pre-paywall (4 screens): ➡️ "Start for $0.00" as the dominant CTA ➡️ free vs premium visual comparison ➡️ "We'll remind you 1 day before trial ends" ➡️ emotional closer: "your adventure buddy for nature..." Paywall: ➡️ main CTA: "Start for $0.00" with native trial reminder toggle ➡️ monthly tier hidden behind "View more options" ➡️ $79.99/year with 3-day trial vs $19.99/month without trial ➡️ monthly plan is the decoy

this app makes $550k/month selling adults an AI imaginary friend. Tolan shows you "$0.00" pre paywall. then features comparison. then a reminder guarantee. then the paywall. $550k/month. Onboarding: ➡️ opens with a cinematic animation ➡️ ATT prompt fires ➡️ name + age captured early ➡️ push notification opt-in: “…an update from their world” ➡️ "do you have an invite code?," manufactured exclusivity ➡️ AI chat replaces multiple-choice questionnaire voice or text responses to psychological audit ➡️ iOS rating prompt drops mid-onboarding ➡️user names the alien, selects its voice ➡️ tap-and-hold "hatching" mechanic to meet their Tolan Pre-paywall (4 screens): ➡️ "Start for $0.00" as the dominant CTA ➡️ free vs premium visual comparison ➡️ "We'll remind you 1 day before trial ends" ➡️ emotional closer: "your adventure buddy for nature..." Paywall: ➡️ main CTA: "Start for $0.00" with native trial reminder toggle ➡️ monthly tier hidden behind "View more options" ➡️ $79.99/year with 3-day trial vs $19.99/month without trial ➡️ monthly plan is the decoy

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Grey Ledger

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Key love lessons for young men in 2026: ➡️ If you “talk to her” for more than 2 weeks & still haven’t smashed, that’s too long ➡️ If you aren’t boning her yet you have ZERO pull over her (no sway, no influence, nada, zip) ➡️ Until you’ve boned her on 3 separate occasions, expect that she will still meet other guys ➡️ If you have not had sex with her yet, that’s not a relationship ➡️ NEVER let yourself get emotionally invested in a girl UNTIL you’ve been inside her! (Though if she is still pulling this stuff after you’ve boned her 3+ times, then yeah — she is for the streets.)

Girls Chase 🏃‍♀️💨

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🥐 fresh crumbs with Cem Karsan 🥐 What does a Trump 👔 Presidency look like? 🔸 populism ➡️ protectionism ➡️ inflation 🔸 closing borders means increase in service inflation 🔸 may install a shadow FED chairman ✍️ 🔸 financials may perform well for the next ~4 years 🔸 #Bitcoin to $1 Million by 2034 🫢 Full interview Public

🥐 fresh crumbs with Cem Karsan 🥐 What does a Trump 👔 Presidency look like? 🔸 populism ➡️ protectionism ➡️ inflation 🔸 closing borders means increase in service inflation 🔸 may install a shadow FED chairman ✍️ 🔸 financials may perform well for the next ~4 years 🔸 #Bitcoin to $1 Million by 2034 🫢 Full interview Public

Ozzy

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🚨 #BREAKING: U.S. Sen. Andy Kim reports seeing MULTIPLE drones flying over New Jersey yesterday Here are his key findings (w/ videos): ➡️ Local police say they are seeing them every night. They’ve attempted to chase the drones with helicopters, but once they get too close, the drones turn off their lights and go dark ➡️ The drones always come out after dark and disappear before down ➡️ They move horizontally and instantly switch back in the opposite direction as planes can’t do ➡️ Travel in clusters of 2-4 ➡️ Some were illuminated in solid white lights—others had red and green directional lights ➡️ Police are receiving reports that these drones are flying very low and very close to homes, being described by witnesses as being the size of car hoods. ➡️ These drones do NOT show up on any flight tracking apps. Kim made these observations while out with police near the Round Valley Reservoir. What the hell is the government hiding?

🚨 #BREAKING: U.S. Sen. Andy Kim reports seeing MULTIPLE drones flying over New Jersey yesterday Here are his key findings (w/ videos): ➡️ Local police say they are seeing them every night. They’ve attempted to chase the drones with helicopters, but once they get too close, the drones turn off their lights and go dark ➡️ The drones always come out after dark and disappear before down ➡️ They move horizontally and instantly switch back in the opposite direction as planes can’t do ➡️ Travel in clusters of 2-4 ➡️ Some were illuminated in solid white lights—others had red and green directional lights ➡️ Police are receiving reports that these drones are flying very low and very close to homes, being described by witnesses as being the size of car hoods. ➡️ These drones do NOT show up on any flight tracking apps. Kim made these observations while out with police near the Round Valley Reservoir. What the hell is the government hiding?

Nick Sortor

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Non-zero chance that Iran stopped signaling missile attacks and actually seriously targeted USAF fighter-jet assets in Jordan Not just depleting $4 million dollar Patriot PAC-3 stocks with 20-times cheaper missiles but hitting painful targets ➡️ Escalating disproportionally ?

Non-zero chance that Iran stopped signaling missile attacks and actually seriously targeted USAF fighter-jet assets in Jordan Not just depleting $4 million dollar Patriot PAC-3 stocks with 20-times cheaper missiles but hitting painful targets ➡️ Escalating disproportionally ?

Patarames

139,487 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

TRUMP'S GAS PROMISE COLLAPSES: OIL FUTURES LOCKED HIGH UNTIL 2032 Donald Trump and his team repeatedly promised gas prices would drop like a rock once the Iran conflict ended. But the futures market tells a brutal different story. Oil prices are staying elevated for years, hammering everyday costs and shattering approval ratings even inside the Republican base. THE POLLING DISASTER ➡️ Republican net approval on inflation has flipped from plus 68 points to minus 5 in recent Ipsos data. ➡️ On gas prices specifically it cratered from plus 51 last summer to minus 4 now, a staggering 55-point swing. ➡️ This is not the general public. These are Trump's own voters turning sour fast. THE BROKEN PREDICTIONS ➡️ Trump and aides claimed prices would tumble immediately after the war, with oil flooding out of the Strait of Hormuz. ➡️ They said it would drop lower than pre-war levels and come tumbling down like never before. ➡️ Reality shows the opposite, with repeated assurances now exposed as wishful thinking. THE LONG ROAD AHEAD ➡️ Clearing the Hormuz bottleneck with 170 stuck tankers and 13 million barrels trapped is no quick fix. ➡️ Restarting damaged production takes weeks while rebuilding blown-up facilities, especially the massive LNG port, could require two full years. ➡️ Futures markets signal we won't see sub-$70 oil again until 2032, meaning sustained high energy costs. THE DAILY PAIN MULTIPLIER ➡️ Clothing, airfare, shipping, and nearly every consumer good stays more expensive for years ahead. ➡️ Gas prices remain around $4.49 nationally, far above pre-war levels with potential to challenge 2022 records. ➡️ Republicans now rank the economy and cost of living as their clear top issue, right as Trump's numbers sink underwater. THE BOTTOM LINE High oil futures are cementing a long-term economic squeeze that is already eroding Trump's support where it matters most. This energy reality is reshaping everything, and the pain is only beginning. #OilFutures #GasPricesForever #TrumpApprovalCrash #EnergyCrisis #RepublicanPain #2032Oil #InflationDisaster

TRUMP'S GAS PROMISE COLLAPSES: OIL FUTURES LOCKED HIGH UNTIL 2032 Donald Trump and his team repeatedly promised gas prices would drop like a rock once the Iran conflict ended. But the futures market tells a brutal different story. Oil prices are staying elevated for years, hammering everyday costs and shattering approval ratings even inside the Republican base. THE POLLING DISASTER ➡️ Republican net approval on inflation has flipped from plus 68 points to minus 5 in recent Ipsos data. ➡️ On gas prices specifically it cratered from plus 51 last summer to minus 4 now, a staggering 55-point swing. ➡️ This is not the general public. These are Trump's own voters turning sour fast. THE BROKEN PREDICTIONS ➡️ Trump and aides claimed prices would tumble immediately after the war, with oil flooding out of the Strait of Hormuz. ➡️ They said it would drop lower than pre-war levels and come tumbling down like never before. ➡️ Reality shows the opposite, with repeated assurances now exposed as wishful thinking. THE LONG ROAD AHEAD ➡️ Clearing the Hormuz bottleneck with 170 stuck tankers and 13 million barrels trapped is no quick fix. ➡️ Restarting damaged production takes weeks while rebuilding blown-up facilities, especially the massive LNG port, could require two full years. ➡️ Futures markets signal we won't see sub-$70 oil again until 2032, meaning sustained high energy costs. THE DAILY PAIN MULTIPLIER ➡️ Clothing, airfare, shipping, and nearly every consumer good stays more expensive for years ahead. ➡️ Gas prices remain around $4.49 nationally, far above pre-war levels with potential to challenge 2022 records. ➡️ Republicans now rank the economy and cost of living as their clear top issue, right as Trump's numbers sink underwater. THE BOTTOM LINE High oil futures are cementing a long-term economic squeeze that is already eroding Trump's support where it matters most. This energy reality is reshaping everything, and the pain is only beginning. #OilFutures #GasPricesForever #TrumpApprovalCrash #EnergyCrisis #RepublicanPain #2032Oil #InflationDisaster

Mark

14,964 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

"Iranian Missiles hit nothing important" "Even if they impact they are too inaccurate" ➡️ You probably heard those lines at some point Iran's missile strikes today showed how 3 out of 4 🇮🇷 Missiles penetrated Patriot PAC-3 defenses at a key 🇺🇸 base in Jordan 6 PAC-3 were launched for one successful interception ➡️ Effectively 6 x $4 million = $24 million were spend to neutralize one ~150k dollar Kheybar-Shekan-2(?) Result: An exchange-ratio of 160-times ➡️ This is not sustainable PAC-3 are not low-cost Israeli Tamir ($ 100k +) but a high-end, very difficult and time-intensive to produce interceptors. Literally money can't buy then in the number one wishes With these types of strikes, Iran creates a political leverage too. Because once the luxury capability of ballistic missile defense is unavailable at even a few critical sites ➡️ Fighting against Iran becomes virtually impossible

"Iranian Missiles hit nothing important" "Even if they impact they are too inaccurate" ➡️ You probably heard those lines at some point Iran's missile strikes today showed how 3 out of 4 🇮🇷 Missiles penetrated Patriot PAC-3 defenses at a key 🇺🇸 base in Jordan 6 PAC-3 were launched for one successful interception ➡️ Effectively 6 x $4 million = $24 million were spend to neutralize one ~150k dollar Kheybar-Shekan-2(?) Result: An exchange-ratio of 160-times ➡️ This is not sustainable PAC-3 are not low-cost Israeli Tamir ($ 100k +) but a high-end, very difficult and time-intensive to produce interceptors. Literally money can't buy then in the number one wishes With these types of strikes, Iran creates a political leverage too. Because once the luxury capability of ballistic missile defense is unavailable at even a few critical sites ➡️ Fighting against Iran becomes virtually impossible

Patarames

190,772 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

ART BERMAN ON THE BIGGEST BLUNDER IN HISTORY: GEOLOGIST WARNS OF JULY CRUNCH Nate Hagens welcomes petroleum geologist Art Berman back for another truly fascinating conversation. With over 40 years of oil and gas industry experience and deep expertise on US shale plays, Art delivers a sobering deep dive into the data surrounding the Strait of Hormuz closure. What he reveals about impending shortages, system risks, and the true scale of this conflict will change how you see the months ahead. THE SCALE OF THE CRISIS ➡️ Roughly 21 million barrels per day of oil and refined products normally flow through Hormuz — exactly what the United States consumes daily. ➡️ As of now pretty close to zero is getting through, with only Iranian oil moving at all. ➡️ That leaves about 11 to 12 million barrels offline — roughly 11% of global supply suddenly gone. WORSE THAN THE 1970s SHOCKS ➡️ The rate of loss is up to 100 times greater than the 1979 Iranian Revolution shock when normalized for daily impact. ➡️ Leads and lags mean the US has not felt the full pinch yet but places like East Asia and Africa already have. ➡️ Strategic reserves are being drawn down at the maximum physical rate of about 2 million barrels per day. WHY JULY LOOKS BRUTAL ➡️ Even if peace breaks out tomorrow, hundreds of tankers parked inside Hormuz will take 2 to 3 months to reach destinations. ➡️ Production shut-ins, mines in the strait, insurance issues, and repositioning delays all add months more. ➡️ By July gasoline and especially diesel prices will reach levels where many people simply cannot afford to fill their tanks. THE DIESEL HEART ATTACK ➡️ Diesel powers ships, trains, trucks, farms, mining — basically the entire global economy. ➡️ Spot prices in places like Singapore have already hit the equivalent of $210 per barrel. ➡️ Higher diesel costs cascade into everything you buy, from groceries to delivered goods. THE US OIL ILLUSION ➡️ America is a net energy exporter on paper but remains a significant net importer of crude oil. ➡️ We export light shale oil ideal for gasoline but must import heavy oil to make enough diesel and jet fuel. ➡️ Our complex refineries are specifically designed around this mix — there is no quick fix. THE REFINERY SQUEEZE ➡️ Physical oil is trading at $140–$160 per barrel while futures sit much lower. ➡️ Refineries need strong margins to operate profitably at these prices. ➡️ If margins collapse, throughput will be cut, making shortages even worse regardless of crude availability. PEAK MATERIALS REALITY ➡️ Steel, cement and fertilizer production have already been declining for years. ➡️ Plastics are flattening. ➡️ These four pillars support modern civilization — their peak means we were already slowing before Hormuz. THE RENEWABLES LIMIT ➡️ Solar panels, wind turbines and EVs still require massive steel, plastics and concrete. ➡️ Critical minerals are overwhelmingly controlled by China. ➡️ We are simply trading Persian Gulf dependence for Chinese dependence. THE BOTTOM LINE Art Berman and Nate Hagens lay out why this conflict represents the biggest military, geopolitical, and economic blunder in modern history — driven by energy blindness and a failure to grasp system implications. Even in the best case we are screwed through the rest of the year no matter what happens next. HT: YouTube Nate Hagens Art Berman Nate Hagens #TheGreatSimplification #ArtBerman #HormuzCrisis #OilShortage #DieselCrunch #EnergyBlunder #GreatSimplification

ART BERMAN ON THE BIGGEST BLUNDER IN HISTORY: GEOLOGIST WARNS OF JULY CRUNCH Nate Hagens welcomes petroleum geologist Art Berman back for another truly fascinating conversation. With over 40 years of oil and gas industry experience and deep expertise on US shale plays, Art delivers a sobering deep dive into the data surrounding the Strait of Hormuz closure. What he reveals about impending shortages, system risks, and the true scale of this conflict will change how you see the months ahead. THE SCALE OF THE CRISIS ➡️ Roughly 21 million barrels per day of oil and refined products normally flow through Hormuz — exactly what the United States consumes daily. ➡️ As of now pretty close to zero is getting through, with only Iranian oil moving at all. ➡️ That leaves about 11 to 12 million barrels offline — roughly 11% of global supply suddenly gone. WORSE THAN THE 1970s SHOCKS ➡️ The rate of loss is up to 100 times greater than the 1979 Iranian Revolution shock when normalized for daily impact. ➡️ Leads and lags mean the US has not felt the full pinch yet but places like East Asia and Africa already have. ➡️ Strategic reserves are being drawn down at the maximum physical rate of about 2 million barrels per day. WHY JULY LOOKS BRUTAL ➡️ Even if peace breaks out tomorrow, hundreds of tankers parked inside Hormuz will take 2 to 3 months to reach destinations. ➡️ Production shut-ins, mines in the strait, insurance issues, and repositioning delays all add months more. ➡️ By July gasoline and especially diesel prices will reach levels where many people simply cannot afford to fill their tanks. THE DIESEL HEART ATTACK ➡️ Diesel powers ships, trains, trucks, farms, mining — basically the entire global economy. ➡️ Spot prices in places like Singapore have already hit the equivalent of $210 per barrel. ➡️ Higher diesel costs cascade into everything you buy, from groceries to delivered goods. THE US OIL ILLUSION ➡️ America is a net energy exporter on paper but remains a significant net importer of crude oil. ➡️ We export light shale oil ideal for gasoline but must import heavy oil to make enough diesel and jet fuel. ➡️ Our complex refineries are specifically designed around this mix — there is no quick fix. THE REFINERY SQUEEZE ➡️ Physical oil is trading at $140–$160 per barrel while futures sit much lower. ➡️ Refineries need strong margins to operate profitably at these prices. ➡️ If margins collapse, throughput will be cut, making shortages even worse regardless of crude availability. PEAK MATERIALS REALITY ➡️ Steel, cement and fertilizer production have already been declining for years. ➡️ Plastics are flattening. ➡️ These four pillars support modern civilization — their peak means we were already slowing before Hormuz. THE RENEWABLES LIMIT ➡️ Solar panels, wind turbines and EVs still require massive steel, plastics and concrete. ➡️ Critical minerals are overwhelmingly controlled by China. ➡️ We are simply trading Persian Gulf dependence for Chinese dependence. THE BOTTOM LINE Art Berman and Nate Hagens lay out why this conflict represents the biggest military, geopolitical, and economic blunder in modern history — driven by energy blindness and a failure to grasp system implications. Even in the best case we are screwed through the rest of the year no matter what happens next. HT: YouTube Nate Hagens Art Berman Nate Hagens #TheGreatSimplification #ArtBerman #HormuzCrisis #OilShortage #DieselCrunch #EnergyBlunder #GreatSimplification

Mark

57,339 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

BIGGEST ENERGY CRISIS IN HISTORY: $150 OIL IN WEEKS AS INVENTORIES PLUNGE TO RECORD LOWS Eric Nuttall, partner and senior portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners, delivered a sobering message in his Bloomberg TV interview. We are living through the biggest energy crisis anyone alive has ever seen — yet most of the world still has no idea what is coming. With Middle East production slashed by 14 million barrels per day, the safety buffer is gone and inventories are about to hit all-time lows. THE UNPRECEDENTED SHORTAGE ➡️ Middle Eastern production is down a staggering 14 million barrels per day. ➡️ Already lost 650 million barrels of production — and that climbs to 1.5 billion even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens tomorrow. ➡️ The last ships that left before closure have now unloaded, leaving zero safety buffer. THE INVENTORY COLLAPSE ➡️ US diesel stocks fell 4% in a single week while gasoline dropped 3% outside driving season. ➡️ Global oil inventories are heading straight to all-time record lows by the end of May. ➡️ Complacency rules because the human mind simply cannot grasp something this enormous. THE INEVITABLE PRICE SPIKE ➡️ Demand must be rationed more severely than during COVID — and price is the only way to do it. ➡️ Expect oil well in excess of $150 per barrel in the coming days or weeks. ➡️ Physical markets are already trading at these brutal levels. THE POST-CRISIS OUTLOOK ➡️ Nuttall went 100% oil weighted back in January — his fund is already up 44%. ➡️ Once the Strait reopens he still sees an $80 floor with demand boosted 40% from restocking depleted inventories and SPRs. THE BOTTOM LINE Eric Nuttall has spent 25 years in this market and calls this the biggest disruption of his lifetime. The world is sleepwalking into a supply shock that will force prices higher faster than anyone expects. This is the calm before the storm hits hard. #EnergyCrisis #150Oil #OilShortage #StraitOfHormuz #RecordLowInventories #OilPrices #EnergyShock

BIGGEST ENERGY CRISIS IN HISTORY: $150 OIL IN WEEKS AS INVENTORIES PLUNGE TO RECORD LOWS Eric Nuttall, partner and senior portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners, delivered a sobering message in his Bloomberg TV interview. We are living through the biggest energy crisis anyone alive has ever seen — yet most of the world still has no idea what is coming. With Middle East production slashed by 14 million barrels per day, the safety buffer is gone and inventories are about to hit all-time lows. THE UNPRECEDENTED SHORTAGE ➡️ Middle Eastern production is down a staggering 14 million barrels per day. ➡️ Already lost 650 million barrels of production — and that climbs to 1.5 billion even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens tomorrow. ➡️ The last ships that left before closure have now unloaded, leaving zero safety buffer. THE INVENTORY COLLAPSE ➡️ US diesel stocks fell 4% in a single week while gasoline dropped 3% outside driving season. ➡️ Global oil inventories are heading straight to all-time record lows by the end of May. ➡️ Complacency rules because the human mind simply cannot grasp something this enormous. THE INEVITABLE PRICE SPIKE ➡️ Demand must be rationed more severely than during COVID — and price is the only way to do it. ➡️ Expect oil well in excess of $150 per barrel in the coming days or weeks. ➡️ Physical markets are already trading at these brutal levels. THE POST-CRISIS OUTLOOK ➡️ Nuttall went 100% oil weighted back in January — his fund is already up 44%. ➡️ Once the Strait reopens he still sees an $80 floor with demand boosted 40% from restocking depleted inventories and SPRs. THE BOTTOM LINE Eric Nuttall has spent 25 years in this market and calls this the biggest disruption of his lifetime. The world is sleepwalking into a supply shock that will force prices higher faster than anyone expects. This is the calm before the storm hits hard. #EnergyCrisis #150Oil #OilShortage #StraitOfHormuz #RecordLowInventories #OilPrices #EnergyShock

Mark

193,096 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

SILVER'S RUBBER BAND IS ABOUT TO SNAP: 80:1 BACK TO HISTORIC 15:1 Austrian silver expert Ernst Gratz just laid out the most extreme valuation gap in monetary history. Gold and silver are the oldest currencies on earth, yet the paper market has stretched their relationship to a breaking point never seen before. What happens when that rubber band finally snaps back will rewrite portfolios overnight. THE GEOLOGICAL AND HISTORICAL TRUTH ➡️ In the Earth’s crust silver is only 15 to 19 times more abundant than gold. ➡️ Ancient Egypt under King Menes set the ratio as low as 2.5 to 1. ➡️ The Roman Empire fixed it by law at 12 to 1. Julius Caesar adjusted it to 11.5 to 1. ➡️ The United States Coin Act of 1792 locked the official ratio at exactly 15 to 1 for generations. THE MODERN MADNESS ➡️ Today the paper market trades the ratio at 80 to 1 or higher. ➡️ This is not a free market price. It is a historic anomaly created by derivatives, industrial classification, and institutional blindness. WHY THE BAND IS STRETCHED SO FAR ➡️ Gold is treated as pure money and is hoarded. Silver is treated as an industrial metal and is consumed. ➡️ Over 50 percent of annual silver demand now comes from industry: electric vehicles, electronics, and AI data centers. ➡️ Paper markets and futures contracts systematically suppress the physical silver price. ➡️ In every crisis the big institutions, central banks, and sovereign funds flee almost exclusively into gold and overlook silver completely. THE SUPPLY TIME BOMB ➡️ The world has run a structural silver deficit for six consecutive years. ➡️ The cumulative shortfall has already reached roughly 700 million ounces — an entire year of global mine production. ➡️ The green energy transition and the AI boom require enormous additional volumes. Silver is the best electrical conductor on the planet and has no substitute. THE HISTORICAL PATTERN ➡️ Every time the gold-silver ratio has crossed 80 or 100 to 1 — in 1980, 2008, and 2020 — silver launched an epic catch-up rally that dramatically outperformed gold. THE FINAL SHAKEOUT ➡️ Before the rubber band snaps, the system always tries to force the last true believers out of the market. ➡️ Capitulation by the remaining physical holders is the classic final signal that the upside is about to open. THE BOTTOM LINE The rubber band is stretched to its absolute limit. When financial stress meets physical tightness, silver will not gently re-rate. It will snap back toward its 15-to-1 reality with historic force. This is the highest-conviction asymmetric trade left in the precious metals complex. #Silver #GoldSilverRatio #SilverDeficit #PreciousMetals #SilverSqueeze #MonetaryMetals #SilverVsGold

SILVER'S RUBBER BAND IS ABOUT TO SNAP: 80:1 BACK TO HISTORIC 15:1 Austrian silver expert Ernst Gratz just laid out the most extreme valuation gap in monetary history. Gold and silver are the oldest currencies on earth, yet the paper market has stretched their relationship to a breaking point never seen before. What happens when that rubber band finally snaps back will rewrite portfolios overnight. THE GEOLOGICAL AND HISTORICAL TRUTH ➡️ In the Earth’s crust silver is only 15 to 19 times more abundant than gold. ➡️ Ancient Egypt under King Menes set the ratio as low as 2.5 to 1. ➡️ The Roman Empire fixed it by law at 12 to 1. Julius Caesar adjusted it to 11.5 to 1. ➡️ The United States Coin Act of 1792 locked the official ratio at exactly 15 to 1 for generations. THE MODERN MADNESS ➡️ Today the paper market trades the ratio at 80 to 1 or higher. ➡️ This is not a free market price. It is a historic anomaly created by derivatives, industrial classification, and institutional blindness. WHY THE BAND IS STRETCHED SO FAR ➡️ Gold is treated as pure money and is hoarded. Silver is treated as an industrial metal and is consumed. ➡️ Over 50 percent of annual silver demand now comes from industry: electric vehicles, electronics, and AI data centers. ➡️ Paper markets and futures contracts systematically suppress the physical silver price. ➡️ In every crisis the big institutions, central banks, and sovereign funds flee almost exclusively into gold and overlook silver completely. THE SUPPLY TIME BOMB ➡️ The world has run a structural silver deficit for six consecutive years. ➡️ The cumulative shortfall has already reached roughly 700 million ounces — an entire year of global mine production. ➡️ The green energy transition and the AI boom require enormous additional volumes. Silver is the best electrical conductor on the planet and has no substitute. THE HISTORICAL PATTERN ➡️ Every time the gold-silver ratio has crossed 80 or 100 to 1 — in 1980, 2008, and 2020 — silver launched an epic catch-up rally that dramatically outperformed gold. THE FINAL SHAKEOUT ➡️ Before the rubber band snaps, the system always tries to force the last true believers out of the market. ➡️ Capitulation by the remaining physical holders is the classic final signal that the upside is about to open. THE BOTTOM LINE The rubber band is stretched to its absolute limit. When financial stress meets physical tightness, silver will not gently re-rate. It will snap back toward its 15-to-1 reality with historic force. This is the highest-conviction asymmetric trade left in the precious metals complex. #Silver #GoldSilverRatio #SilverDeficit #PreciousMetals #SilverSqueeze #MonetaryMetals #SilverVsGold

Mark

46,452 görüntüleme • 8 gün önce

TRUMP'S LAST OPTION: GROUND INVASION OF IRAN NOW INEVITABLE Professor Pape who has modeled the bombing of Iran for over two decades just laid out the brutal reality. He published the exact three-stage escalation ladder weeks before the first bombs dropped. Every stage has now unfolded precisely as forecasted. Air strikes failed to break the regime. Naval pressure and the double blockade are not enough. One path remains. THE CORE THESIS: AIR AND NAVAL POWER HAVE BEEN EXHAUSTED ➡️ Stage one regime-change bombing only stiffened the Iranian regime and made it more dangerous. ➡️ Stage two horizontal escalation delivered drone attacks on Dubai, Europe, and GCC states plus effective control of the Strait of Hormuz. ➡️ Stage three is now the only remaining option: a limited ground operation with Marines moving forward. WHY NOTHING ELSE WORKS ANYMORE ➡️ More bombing cannot achieve the goal — if it could, it would have already succeeded. ➡️ More naval power and blockades cannot force surrender — if they could, they would have already worked. ➡️ JD Vance and Pete Hegseth have made the demand crystal clear: hand over the enriched uranium or we escalate. ➡️ That escalation no longer means bombs or ships. It means boots on the ground. THE FOURTH CENTER OF WORLD POWER THREAT ➡️ Iran now controls the Strait of Hormuz — 20% of global oil — and is positioned to expand influence into the Red Sea. ➡️ Within a year, even if the war stopped today, intelligence assessments give over 90% odds of Iran fielding a dozen working nuclear weapons. ➡️ This is not a distant future scenario. It is staring the Trump administration directly in the face. THE FORK IN THE ROAD WITH NO OFF-RAMP ➡️ Declaring victory has already failed because the world sees Iran growing stronger, not weaker. ➡️ Begging Iran to surrender is the classic sucker move that history proves never succeeds. ➡️ The only way to prevent Iran from becoming the fourth center of world power is to keep escalating — and the next stage is ground forces. TRUMP’S INCENTIVE TRAP MAKES RETREAT IMPOSSIBLE ➡️ Accepting defeat now would destroy Trump’s domestic political power, risk losing Congress, and erase his legacy forever. ➡️ Like Japan in 1941 facing total oil cutoff, he faces 100% certain political death if he backs down versus a risky bet on ground action to salvage victory. ➡️ Every signal — continued troop movements with zero pullbacks — confirms the path forward. THE BOTTOM LINE Air power failed. Naval power failed. The enriched uranium remains. Iran’s power is rising fast. For Trump, the only tool left that has not been tried and found wanting is a ground invasion. The escalation trap has closed. Marines are the final option. #IranGroundInvasion #EscalationTrap #StraitOfHormuz #TrumpIranWar #NuclearIran #MarinesToIran #FourthWorldPower HT: YouTube Mario Nawfal

TRUMP'S LAST OPTION: GROUND INVASION OF IRAN NOW INEVITABLE Professor Pape who has modeled the bombing of Iran for over two decades just laid out the brutal reality. He published the exact three-stage escalation ladder weeks before the first bombs dropped. Every stage has now unfolded precisely as forecasted. Air strikes failed to break the regime. Naval pressure and the double blockade are not enough. One path remains. THE CORE THESIS: AIR AND NAVAL POWER HAVE BEEN EXHAUSTED ➡️ Stage one regime-change bombing only stiffened the Iranian regime and made it more dangerous. ➡️ Stage two horizontal escalation delivered drone attacks on Dubai, Europe, and GCC states plus effective control of the Strait of Hormuz. ➡️ Stage three is now the only remaining option: a limited ground operation with Marines moving forward. WHY NOTHING ELSE WORKS ANYMORE ➡️ More bombing cannot achieve the goal — if it could, it would have already succeeded. ➡️ More naval power and blockades cannot force surrender — if they could, they would have already worked. ➡️ JD Vance and Pete Hegseth have made the demand crystal clear: hand over the enriched uranium or we escalate. ➡️ That escalation no longer means bombs or ships. It means boots on the ground. THE FOURTH CENTER OF WORLD POWER THREAT ➡️ Iran now controls the Strait of Hormuz — 20% of global oil — and is positioned to expand influence into the Red Sea. ➡️ Within a year, even if the war stopped today, intelligence assessments give over 90% odds of Iran fielding a dozen working nuclear weapons. ➡️ This is not a distant future scenario. It is staring the Trump administration directly in the face. THE FORK IN THE ROAD WITH NO OFF-RAMP ➡️ Declaring victory has already failed because the world sees Iran growing stronger, not weaker. ➡️ Begging Iran to surrender is the classic sucker move that history proves never succeeds. ➡️ The only way to prevent Iran from becoming the fourth center of world power is to keep escalating — and the next stage is ground forces. TRUMP’S INCENTIVE TRAP MAKES RETREAT IMPOSSIBLE ➡️ Accepting defeat now would destroy Trump’s domestic political power, risk losing Congress, and erase his legacy forever. ➡️ Like Japan in 1941 facing total oil cutoff, he faces 100% certain political death if he backs down versus a risky bet on ground action to salvage victory. ➡️ Every signal — continued troop movements with zero pullbacks — confirms the path forward. THE BOTTOM LINE Air power failed. Naval power failed. The enriched uranium remains. Iran’s power is rising fast. For Trump, the only tool left that has not been tried and found wanting is a ground invasion. The escalation trap has closed. Marines are the final option. #IranGroundInvasion #EscalationTrap #StraitOfHormuz #TrumpIranWar #NuclearIran #MarinesToIran #FourthWorldPower HT: YouTube Mario Nawfal

Mark

79,737 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

EXXON CEO WARNS $150 OIL WITHIN WEEKS: THE SHORTAGE THE MARKET IGNORED Josh Young of Bison Interests and Bison just laid out the numbers that flip the entire oil narrative on its head. The numbers coming out of the energy markets have flipped from bearish complacency to outright crisis faster than almost anyone modeled. A balanced global oil system has lost up to 14 million barrels of daily supply in a matter of weeks. Inventories are draining at hundreds of millions of barrels per month with virtually no demand destruction to offset the loss. THE SUPPLY SHOCK AND CYCLE REALITY ➡️ Global supply has dropped by 10 to 14 million barrels per day to around 90 to 92 million barrels daily. ➡️ The market was already 15 years into a down cycle of underinvestment before the conflict hit. ➡️ Traders had positioned for a glut that the fundamentals never supported. THE INVENTORY CRISIS ACCELERATES ➡️ Storage has plunged from 8.3 billion to nearly 7 billion barrels in just months. ➡️ Monthly depletion of 300 to 500 million barrels continues without relief. ➡️ Tank bottoms are approaching fast, threatening the basic functioning of global oil logistics. THE DEMAND AND RECOVERY DYNAMICS ➡️ Demand destruction remains minimal and largely availability driven rather than economic. ➡️ Even immediate reopening of key chokepoints would require two to three months for normalization. ➡️ Additional inventory losses of 500 million to 1 billion barrels are already locked in. THE $150 OIL WARNING FROM THE TOP ➡️ Exxon and Chevron CEOs stated within weeks they expect $150 plus physical oil. ➡️ Their conservative stance makes this warning all the more significant for the market. ➡️ The data on collapsing supply and vanishing storage fully supports their assessment. THE BOTTOM LINE The war has accelerated an already tightening oil cycle into a full-blown supply crisis. With inventories crashing and almost no demand response to cushion the blow, the market is now set for materially higher prices over an extended period. The old glut fears have been exposed as fundamentally misplaced. This is the supply crisis that forces the re-rating of oil higher. #OilSupplyCrisis #HigherOilPrices #InventoryDrawdown #EnergyBull #WTI #TankBottoms #SupplyShock HT: YouTube Natural Resource Stocks Josh Young

EXXON CEO WARNS $150 OIL WITHIN WEEKS: THE SHORTAGE THE MARKET IGNORED Josh Young of Bison Interests and Bison just laid out the numbers that flip the entire oil narrative on its head. The numbers coming out of the energy markets have flipped from bearish complacency to outright crisis faster than almost anyone modeled. A balanced global oil system has lost up to 14 million barrels of daily supply in a matter of weeks. Inventories are draining at hundreds of millions of barrels per month with virtually no demand destruction to offset the loss. THE SUPPLY SHOCK AND CYCLE REALITY ➡️ Global supply has dropped by 10 to 14 million barrels per day to around 90 to 92 million barrels daily. ➡️ The market was already 15 years into a down cycle of underinvestment before the conflict hit. ➡️ Traders had positioned for a glut that the fundamentals never supported. THE INVENTORY CRISIS ACCELERATES ➡️ Storage has plunged from 8.3 billion to nearly 7 billion barrels in just months. ➡️ Monthly depletion of 300 to 500 million barrels continues without relief. ➡️ Tank bottoms are approaching fast, threatening the basic functioning of global oil logistics. THE DEMAND AND RECOVERY DYNAMICS ➡️ Demand destruction remains minimal and largely availability driven rather than economic. ➡️ Even immediate reopening of key chokepoints would require two to three months for normalization. ➡️ Additional inventory losses of 500 million to 1 billion barrels are already locked in. THE $150 OIL WARNING FROM THE TOP ➡️ Exxon and Chevron CEOs stated within weeks they expect $150 plus physical oil. ➡️ Their conservative stance makes this warning all the more significant for the market. ➡️ The data on collapsing supply and vanishing storage fully supports their assessment. THE BOTTOM LINE The war has accelerated an already tightening oil cycle into a full-blown supply crisis. With inventories crashing and almost no demand response to cushion the blow, the market is now set for materially higher prices over an extended period. The old glut fears have been exposed as fundamentally misplaced. This is the supply crisis that forces the re-rating of oil higher. #OilSupplyCrisis #HigherOilPrices #InventoryDrawdown #EnergyBull #WTI #TankBottoms #SupplyShock HT: YouTube Natural Resource Stocks Josh Young

Mark

18,685 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

President Trump delivers for American farmers, American workers, and American consumers — FULL STOP. 🇺🇸💪 President Trump is securing reciprocal terms with our trading partners at a level this country has NEVER seen before. When America negotiates from strength, we can lift tariffs on products that don’t compete with US farmers because we’re finally getting fair deals in return. Things like COVFEFE, bananas, and key fertilizers. ☕️🍌 Today’s update is more proof President Donald J. Trump is laser-focused on: ➡️ Lowering grocery prices ➡️ Cutting input costs for farmers ➡️ Keeping America competitive And he’s doing all of it WITHOUT giving bad trading partners a free pass. Lower costs for Americans. Accountability for everyone else. 🚜🔥

President Trump delivers for American farmers, American workers, and American consumers — FULL STOP. 🇺🇸💪 President Trump is securing reciprocal terms with our trading partners at a level this country has NEVER seen before. When America negotiates from strength, we can lift tariffs on products that don’t compete with US farmers because we’re finally getting fair deals in return. Things like COVFEFE, bananas, and key fertilizers. ☕️🍌 Today’s update is more proof President Donald J. Trump is laser-focused on: ➡️ Lowering grocery prices ➡️ Cutting input costs for farmers ➡️ Keeping America competitive And he’s doing all of it WITHOUT giving bad trading partners a free pass. Lower costs for Americans. Accountability for everyone else. 🚜🔥

Secretary Brooke Rollins

155,873 görüntüleme • 8 ay önce

VIOLENT PRICE SIGNAL AHEAD: WHY $150 OIL IS NOW THE ONLY PATH TO BALANCE Energy strategist Eric Nuttall of ninepoint Energy Strategies just delivered his long-awaited weekly update. Instead of relief, the only measurable change has been the relentless drain of nearly 200 million barrels of forfeited production while the world clings to hope. The data from Kepler and the warnings from Exxon and Chevron reveal a structural crisis that tweets cannot fix. THE STRAIT REALITY CHECK ➡️ Just 23 ships are getting through the Strait of Hormuz each day compared to the normal baseline of 40 to 45. ➡️ Daily claims of 35 to 40 ships passing were proven false when actual tracking data showed only two tankers making the transit. ➡️ Leading shipping companies like Maersk have abandoned the route completely because the risk outweighs any reward. THE INVENTORY FREEFALL ➡️ Global inventories visible and invisible are now falling at a rate of 6 to 8 million barrels per day. ➡️ Almost 200 million barrels have already been sucked out of the system in just the past two weeks. ➡️ The cumulative forfeited production has already exceeded one billion barrels and is tracking toward two billion under even optimistic scenarios. THE EXPERT ALARM ➡️ Exxon and Chevron have now corroborated the numbers and stated the market is heading into the danger zone within the next few weeks. ➡️ Inventories are approaching the point where refineries hit tank bottoms and can no longer operate without cutting demand. ➡️ Their models show that oil prices will have to rise to between 150 and 160 dollars to achieve the required demand destruction. THE PRODUCTION TRAP ➡️ Middle East production has been curtailed by 13 to 14 million barrels per day because storage tanks are full and crude cannot exit. ➡️ Barnacle buildup on vessels that have sat idle in warm water will add 80 to 90 percent to fuel costs and further delay any recovery. ➡️ "The IRGC has figured out that having control of the strait is more powerful than actual possession of a nuclear bomb" — and there is no sign they plan to relinquish it. THE COVID INVERSION ➡️ The current pace of inventory depletion is the fastest in history and stands as the direct opposite of the massive build that started in February 2020. ➡️ All previous safety buffers including the largest SPR releases in history have now been exhausted or are being drawn down in real time. ➡️ The market remains trapped in apathy and continues to price energy equities for oil in the high 60s to low 70s even as physical barrels trade near 95. THE LONG-TERM BULL CASE ➡️ After the spike forces the necessary adjustment, the day after will feature years of incremental demand just to rebuild inventories and replace lost production from formation damage. ➡️ Even a sudden resolution would still leave lasting bullish effects because much of the generalist capital has stayed on the sidelines waiting for certainty that may never arrive. ➡️ Energy equities represent one of the strongest long-term investment opportunities precisely because the structural shortage is already in motion. THE BOTTOM LINE The market is betting that hope and tweets will somehow refill the tanks before they run dry. When tank bottoms arrive the price adjustment will be swift, brutal, and completely necessary to balance a system that has run out of buffers. #OilShortage #StraitOfHormuz #InventoryCrisis #EnergyInvesting #OilPriceSpike #BullishEnergy #TankBottoms

VIOLENT PRICE SIGNAL AHEAD: WHY $150 OIL IS NOW THE ONLY PATH TO BALANCE Energy strategist Eric Nuttall of ninepoint Energy Strategies just delivered his long-awaited weekly update. Instead of relief, the only measurable change has been the relentless drain of nearly 200 million barrels of forfeited production while the world clings to hope. The data from Kepler and the warnings from Exxon and Chevron reveal a structural crisis that tweets cannot fix. THE STRAIT REALITY CHECK ➡️ Just 23 ships are getting through the Strait of Hormuz each day compared to the normal baseline of 40 to 45. ➡️ Daily claims of 35 to 40 ships passing were proven false when actual tracking data showed only two tankers making the transit. ➡️ Leading shipping companies like Maersk have abandoned the route completely because the risk outweighs any reward. THE INVENTORY FREEFALL ➡️ Global inventories visible and invisible are now falling at a rate of 6 to 8 million barrels per day. ➡️ Almost 200 million barrels have already been sucked out of the system in just the past two weeks. ➡️ The cumulative forfeited production has already exceeded one billion barrels and is tracking toward two billion under even optimistic scenarios. THE EXPERT ALARM ➡️ Exxon and Chevron have now corroborated the numbers and stated the market is heading into the danger zone within the next few weeks. ➡️ Inventories are approaching the point where refineries hit tank bottoms and can no longer operate without cutting demand. ➡️ Their models show that oil prices will have to rise to between 150 and 160 dollars to achieve the required demand destruction. THE PRODUCTION TRAP ➡️ Middle East production has been curtailed by 13 to 14 million barrels per day because storage tanks are full and crude cannot exit. ➡️ Barnacle buildup on vessels that have sat idle in warm water will add 80 to 90 percent to fuel costs and further delay any recovery. ➡️ "The IRGC has figured out that having control of the strait is more powerful than actual possession of a nuclear bomb" — and there is no sign they plan to relinquish it. THE COVID INVERSION ➡️ The current pace of inventory depletion is the fastest in history and stands as the direct opposite of the massive build that started in February 2020. ➡️ All previous safety buffers including the largest SPR releases in history have now been exhausted or are being drawn down in real time. ➡️ The market remains trapped in apathy and continues to price energy equities for oil in the high 60s to low 70s even as physical barrels trade near 95. THE LONG-TERM BULL CASE ➡️ After the spike forces the necessary adjustment, the day after will feature years of incremental demand just to rebuild inventories and replace lost production from formation damage. ➡️ Even a sudden resolution would still leave lasting bullish effects because much of the generalist capital has stayed on the sidelines waiting for certainty that may never arrive. ➡️ Energy equities represent one of the strongest long-term investment opportunities precisely because the structural shortage is already in motion. THE BOTTOM LINE The market is betting that hope and tweets will somehow refill the tanks before they run dry. When tank bottoms arrive the price adjustment will be swift, brutal, and completely necessary to balance a system that has run out of buffers. #OilShortage #StraitOfHormuz #InventoryCrisis #EnergyInvesting #OilPriceSpike #BullishEnergy #TankBottoms

Mark

26,328 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🚨 WHAT WE KNOW SO FAR ABOUT THE ARLINGTON HOUSE EXPLOSION Timeline of events: ➡️ Around 4:45pm Tuesday, Arlington County, VA police were called out to a report of “possible shots fired.” ➡️ Once officers got to the scene, they became aware that a man inside the home had fired a flare gun out the window 30 to 40 times ➡️ The owner of the home, James Yoo, then barricaded himself inside and refused to make contact with police. ➡️ As a result, they obtained a search warrant, and while attempting to execute it, the suspect fired multiple shots at the officers from inside the home. ➡️ Then, at 8:45pm, an explosion occurred, leveling the entire property. — WHAT CAUSED THE EXPLOSION? The exact cause of the explosion or how it was triggered has not yet been made public. I have however confirmed that this home DID have natural gas hookups and appliances Based on the videos, it seems the explosion originated in the basement, but I cannot confirm this. — WHERE IS THE SUSPECT? No massive manhunt seems to be underway, so he was most likely killed in the explosion. However, NO announcement has been made by any authorities regarding his status There are SO MANY unanswered questions.

🚨 WHAT WE KNOW SO FAR ABOUT THE ARLINGTON HOUSE EXPLOSION Timeline of events: ➡️ Around 4:45pm Tuesday, Arlington County, VA police were called out to a report of “possible shots fired.” ➡️ Once officers got to the scene, they became aware that a man inside the home had fired a flare gun out the window 30 to 40 times ➡️ The owner of the home, James Yoo, then barricaded himself inside and refused to make contact with police. ➡️ As a result, they obtained a search warrant, and while attempting to execute it, the suspect fired multiple shots at the officers from inside the home. ➡️ Then, at 8:45pm, an explosion occurred, leveling the entire property. — WHAT CAUSED THE EXPLOSION? The exact cause of the explosion or how it was triggered has not yet been made public. I have however confirmed that this home DID have natural gas hookups and appliances Based on the videos, it seems the explosion originated in the basement, but I cannot confirm this. — WHERE IS THE SUSPECT? No massive manhunt seems to be underway, so he was most likely killed in the explosion. However, NO announcement has been made by any authorities regarding his status There are SO MANY unanswered questions.

Nick Sortor

1,890,044 görüntüleme • 2 yıl önce

PEACE DEAL YESTERDAY? OIL STILL HEADED TO $150 Traders are convinced any peace deal in the Strait of Hormuz will crash oil prices overnight. Morgan Downey, the man who literally wrote the book on oil markets just destroyed that assumption. Even if a deal was signed yesterday the physical realities of global energy flows guarantee prices stay wrong and head much higher. **THE FLYWHEEL RESTART TRAP** ➡️ Tankers need one to two full months to resume normal transit and restart the global supply chain from the Middle East. ➡️ Shut-in wells across Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq and others require slow complex engineering restarts that have never been attempted at this scale before. ➡️ Damaged LNG facilities in Qatar alone could take four to five years to return to full capacity because critical turbines are backlogged worldwide. **THE TEMPORARY BUFFERS HAVE EXPIRED** ➡️ Strategic petroleum reserve releases and Iranian floating storage have already been largely drawn down to mask the shortage. ➡️ Technology-driven inventory efficiencies over the past five years created a hidden one-time cushion of roughly one billion barrels but that advantage is now spent. ➡️ The world has consumed its safety margins and now sits on a fuse measured in weeks not months. **THE PERSISTENT RISK PREMIUM** ➡️ Even with peace declared today Iran could restart disruptions within six months forcing traders to keep a permanent risk premium in prices. ➡️ Full confidence in tanker traffic and production infrastructure takes far longer to rebuild than any headline can deliver. ➡️ Oil is a physical flow commodity not an electronic market that resets with the stroke of a pen or a government press release. **THE DEMAND DESTRUCTION MANDATE** ➡️ Roughly ten million barrels per day of global demand must be destroyed to rebalance the market after losing that much daily production. ➡️ History shows oil demand only falls after violent price spikes and it always damages the broader economy in the process. ➡️ Current levels near one hundred dollars are simply not high enough to force the necessary cuts in jet fuel gasoline and diesel fast enough. **THE BOTTOM LINE** A peace deal implemented yesterday fixes the politics but completely ignores the physics of oil markets. Prices remain incorrect at current levels and the path to one hundred fifty dollar oil is still wide open regardless of any headline. This is the sound of markets finally waking up to the real cost of the crisis. HT: YouTube Macro Voices Erik Townsend 🛢️ #OilRestart #HormuzCrisis #PeaceDealMyth #OilPrices #EnergyShock #DemandDestruction #MorganDowney

PEACE DEAL YESTERDAY? OIL STILL HEADED TO $150 Traders are convinced any peace deal in the Strait of Hormuz will crash oil prices overnight. Morgan Downey, the man who literally wrote the book on oil markets just destroyed that assumption. Even if a deal was signed yesterday the physical realities of global energy flows guarantee prices stay wrong and head much higher. THE FLYWHEEL RESTART TRAP ➡️ Tankers need one to two full months to resume normal transit and restart the global supply chain from the Middle East. ➡️ Shut-in wells across Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq and others require slow complex engineering restarts that have never been attempted at this scale before. ➡️ Damaged LNG facilities in Qatar alone could take four to five years to return to full capacity because critical turbines are backlogged worldwide. THE TEMPORARY BUFFERS HAVE EXPIRED ➡️ Strategic petroleum reserve releases and Iranian floating storage have already been largely drawn down to mask the shortage. ➡️ Technology-driven inventory efficiencies over the past five years created a hidden one-time cushion of roughly one billion barrels but that advantage is now spent. ➡️ The world has consumed its safety margins and now sits on a fuse measured in weeks not months. THE PERSISTENT RISK PREMIUM ➡️ Even with peace declared today Iran could restart disruptions within six months forcing traders to keep a permanent risk premium in prices. ➡️ Full confidence in tanker traffic and production infrastructure takes far longer to rebuild than any headline can deliver. ➡️ Oil is a physical flow commodity not an electronic market that resets with the stroke of a pen or a government press release. THE DEMAND DESTRUCTION MANDATE ➡️ Roughly ten million barrels per day of global demand must be destroyed to rebalance the market after losing that much daily production. ➡️ History shows oil demand only falls after violent price spikes and it always damages the broader economy in the process. ➡️ Current levels near one hundred dollars are simply not high enough to force the necessary cuts in jet fuel gasoline and diesel fast enough. THE BOTTOM LINE A peace deal implemented yesterday fixes the politics but completely ignores the physics of oil markets. Prices remain incorrect at current levels and the path to one hundred fifty dollar oil is still wide open regardless of any headline. This is the sound of markets finally waking up to the real cost of the crisis. HT: YouTube Macro Voices Erik Townsend 🛢️ #OilRestart #HormuzCrisis #PeaceDealMyth #OilPrices #EnergyShock #DemandDestruction #MorganDowney

Mark

65,192 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

ART BERMAN'S BASE CASE: OIL SPIKES TO $160 THEN STABILIZES PERMANENTLY AT $110 Petroleum geologist Art Berman built a probability model for the current oil crisis that rejects political theater and quick deals. He treats every forecast as a distribution of outcomes because the situation has no historical precedent. His base case carries the highest weight and it points to a permanent break from the energy world of 2025. ART BERMAN'S PROBABILITY MODEL ➡️ He maps best case, base case, and worst case scenarios instead of offering single predictions because no one can know the exact path through unprecedented disruption. ➡️ The best case assumes a perfect deal by early June yet still delivers only 50 percent of normal flows by the end of 2026 due to demining, insurance delays, and weeks of tanker queuing. ➡️ Even that optimistic path leaves three quarters of 2026 operating under severely reduced energy supplies with catastrophic economic consequences. THE BASE CASE THAT DRIVES EVERYTHING ➡️ Iran has no incentive to ever fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz and will likely maintain control indefinitely. ➡️ Restarting shut-in production faces massive lags from damaged reservoirs, lost investment confidence, and infrastructure that may never fully recover. ➡️ The global system faces irreversible change with no realistic path back to 2025 economic conditions. THE OIL PRICE PROJECTION ➡️ In the realistic base case oil prices will almost certainly spike into the 150 to 160 dollar per barrel range by summer. ➡️ Extreme prices trigger demand destruction that pulls Brent back down to around 100 to 105 dollars. ➡️ Prices then slowly rise and stabilize in the 105 to 115 dollar per barrel range through 2027 and likely beyond. WHY THIS SHOCK IS 60 TO 99 TIMES FASTER ➡️ The rate of supply loss is 60 to 99 times faster than the greatest previous oil shocks in recorded history. ➡️ No rapid solutions like vaccines or policy reversals exist this time to cushion the blow. ➡️ Inventories have masked the crisis so far but those savings are running out fast and the full impact is coming. THE BOTTOM LINE Art Berman's model shows the world just suffered its greatest energy blunder in modern history by jeopardizing the entire global economy with one move. Oil will spike hard then settle into a permanently higher range because the old supply system is broken beyond repair. #OilPrices #ArtBerman #EnergyCrisis #OilShock #HormuzBlockade #DemandDestruction #NewOilNormal HT: YouTube Palisades Gold Radio Art Berman

ART BERMAN'S BASE CASE: OIL SPIKES TO $160 THEN STABILIZES PERMANENTLY AT $110 Petroleum geologist Art Berman built a probability model for the current oil crisis that rejects political theater and quick deals. He treats every forecast as a distribution of outcomes because the situation has no historical precedent. His base case carries the highest weight and it points to a permanent break from the energy world of 2025. ART BERMAN'S PROBABILITY MODEL ➡️ He maps best case, base case, and worst case scenarios instead of offering single predictions because no one can know the exact path through unprecedented disruption. ➡️ The best case assumes a perfect deal by early June yet still delivers only 50 percent of normal flows by the end of 2026 due to demining, insurance delays, and weeks of tanker queuing. ➡️ Even that optimistic path leaves three quarters of 2026 operating under severely reduced energy supplies with catastrophic economic consequences. THE BASE CASE THAT DRIVES EVERYTHING ➡️ Iran has no incentive to ever fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz and will likely maintain control indefinitely. ➡️ Restarting shut-in production faces massive lags from damaged reservoirs, lost investment confidence, and infrastructure that may never fully recover. ➡️ The global system faces irreversible change with no realistic path back to 2025 economic conditions. THE OIL PRICE PROJECTION ➡️ In the realistic base case oil prices will almost certainly spike into the 150 to 160 dollar per barrel range by summer. ➡️ Extreme prices trigger demand destruction that pulls Brent back down to around 100 to 105 dollars. ➡️ Prices then slowly rise and stabilize in the 105 to 115 dollar per barrel range through 2027 and likely beyond. WHY THIS SHOCK IS 60 TO 99 TIMES FASTER ➡️ The rate of supply loss is 60 to 99 times faster than the greatest previous oil shocks in recorded history. ➡️ No rapid solutions like vaccines or policy reversals exist this time to cushion the blow. ➡️ Inventories have masked the crisis so far but those savings are running out fast and the full impact is coming. THE BOTTOM LINE Art Berman's model shows the world just suffered its greatest energy blunder in modern history by jeopardizing the entire global economy with one move. Oil will spike hard then settle into a permanently higher range because the old supply system is broken beyond repair. #OilPrices #ArtBerman #EnergyCrisis #OilShock #HormuzBlockade #DemandDestruction #NewOilNormal HT: YouTube Palisades Gold Radio Art Berman

Mark

48,969 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

"300 Tutsi homes burned to the ground in Nturo by FDLR!" A report by Bojana Coulibaly As part of a book project on the Mechanisms of Genocide Ideology in North Kivu, my research partner and I went to investigate the infamous attack on the village of Nturo which took place in October 2023. ➡️ After conducting interviews with Nturo residents, we found that Nturo had about 300 homes owned by Congolese Tutsi. They were attacked by #FDLR on October 2nd, 3rd and 4th, 2023. This was 6 months after the #M23 withdrew from 80% of their previously controlled territory in the Rutshuru and Masisi areas, and one month before the withdrawal of the EAC forces. ➡️ During the main attack, the area was under control of the Burundian EAC contingent. ➡️ We found out that after the #M23 withdrew in March 2023, the 300 Nturo families were systematically targeted by FDLR-Nyatura-Wazalendo. The residents were persecuted and had to pay monthly taxes for cattle and land ownership to the #FDLR. People were killed when they could not pay the taxes. ➡️ The FDLR attacked Nturo several times after M23 withdrew, on the watch of the Burundian EAC forces. All the Nturo residents we interviewed agree that the Burundian EAC soldiers gave a green light to the FDLR-Nyatura-Wazalendo on the day of the main attack. This was confirmed in a video by one of the assailants. The complicity of the Burundian EAC forces with FDLR may be explained by their endorsement of anti-Tutsi genocide ideology. ➡️ On October 2nd, the big attack began. Two Nturo residents got killed during the attack. On October 3rd, FDLR, Nyatura and their families came and looted all the homes, loading trucks with the belongings of Nturo residents. Most residents had fled on October 2nd and 3rd. On October 4th, the assailants came with yellow canisters full of gasoline. They deliberately sprayed all the houses and set fire, which led to the total annihilation of the village of Nturo. ➡️ As we can see in the video footage, FDLR-Nyatura-Wazalendo clearly acknowledged that they were wiping of the map a "Tutsi village". ➡️ During the attack, the majority of Nturo residents fled to the Bwiza IDP camp where 17,000 IDPs had gathered from several parts of eastern DRC, after facing persecution by #FDLR & Nyatura for decades. ➡️ Since November 2023, Nturo residents have began to return to Nturo to rebuild their homes. Those who came in November 2023 witnessed attacks carried out by a FARDC Sukhoi. Indeed, according to the residents, seven bombs were dropped on Nturo. ➡️ When we visit Nturo today, we can see that all the houses have recently been rebuilt. ➡️ ➡️What happened in Nturo is illustrative of the politics of divisionism used by the Government of Kinshasa in its conflict against #M23, particularly through its collaboration with the genocidal force #FDLR. It is also representative of the impact of genocide ideology in DR Congo. ➡️➡️While the attack is slightly mentioned in the December 2023 UN Group of Experts report, it is certainly inadequate as no statement was done by MONUSCO & no investigation was ever carried out. In fact, around the time of the withdrawal of the EAC forces in November 2023, the Burundian army joined the DRC government coalition comprising FARDC, MONUSCO, #FDLR, Wazalendo and European Mercenaries, to fight against #M23. ➡️➡️The total annihilation of Nturo is proof that there is ongoing ethnic cleansing of the Congolese Tutsi in eastern DRC. It shows the impact of genocide ideology in the region, as systematic attacks on Congolese Tutsi in Kitchanga and Bwiza by FDLR also took place. ➡️➡️This tragedy similarly highlights that Nturo residents were feeling safe under the presence of #M23. However, when #M23 withdrew in March 2023, letting EAC take over, the security of Nturo residents drastically decreased. This particular element seems to legitimize the existence of #M23. ➡️➡️➡️ In view of these observations, could we conclude that #M23 is the solution to insecurity in Eastern DRC? (Video by TEDDY MAZINA)

"300 Tutsi homes burned to the ground in Nturo by FDLR!" A report by Bojana Coulibaly As part of a book project on the Mechanisms of Genocide Ideology in North Kivu, my research partner and I went to investigate the infamous attack on the village of Nturo which took place in October 2023. ➡️ After conducting interviews with Nturo residents, we found that Nturo had about 300 homes owned by Congolese Tutsi. They were attacked by #FDLR on October 2nd, 3rd and 4th, 2023. This was 6 months after the #M23 withdrew from 80% of their previously controlled territory in the Rutshuru and Masisi areas, and one month before the withdrawal of the EAC forces. ➡️ During the main attack, the area was under control of the Burundian EAC contingent. ➡️ We found out that after the #M23 withdrew in March 2023, the 300 Nturo families were systematically targeted by FDLR-Nyatura-Wazalendo. The residents were persecuted and had to pay monthly taxes for cattle and land ownership to the #FDLR. People were killed when they could not pay the taxes. ➡️ The FDLR attacked Nturo several times after M23 withdrew, on the watch of the Burundian EAC forces. All the Nturo residents we interviewed agree that the Burundian EAC soldiers gave a green light to the FDLR-Nyatura-Wazalendo on the day of the main attack. This was confirmed in a video by one of the assailants. The complicity of the Burundian EAC forces with FDLR may be explained by their endorsement of anti-Tutsi genocide ideology. ➡️ On October 2nd, the big attack began. Two Nturo residents got killed during the attack. On October 3rd, FDLR, Nyatura and their families came and looted all the homes, loading trucks with the belongings of Nturo residents. Most residents had fled on October 2nd and 3rd. On October 4th, the assailants came with yellow canisters full of gasoline. They deliberately sprayed all the houses and set fire, which led to the total annihilation of the village of Nturo. ➡️ As we can see in the video footage, FDLR-Nyatura-Wazalendo clearly acknowledged that they were wiping of the map a "Tutsi village". ➡️ During the attack, the majority of Nturo residents fled to the Bwiza IDP camp where 17,000 IDPs had gathered from several parts of eastern DRC, after facing persecution by #FDLR & Nyatura for decades. ➡️ Since November 2023, Nturo residents have began to return to Nturo to rebuild their homes. Those who came in November 2023 witnessed attacks carried out by a FARDC Sukhoi. Indeed, according to the residents, seven bombs were dropped on Nturo. ➡️ When we visit Nturo today, we can see that all the houses have recently been rebuilt. ➡️ ➡️What happened in Nturo is illustrative of the politics of divisionism used by the Government of Kinshasa in its conflict against #M23, particularly through its collaboration with the genocidal force #FDLR. It is also representative of the impact of genocide ideology in DR Congo. ➡️➡️While the attack is slightly mentioned in the December 2023 UN Group of Experts report, it is certainly inadequate as no statement was done by MONUSCO & no investigation was ever carried out. In fact, around the time of the withdrawal of the EAC forces in November 2023, the Burundian army joined the DRC government coalition comprising FARDC, MONUSCO, #FDLR, Wazalendo and European Mercenaries, to fight against #M23. ➡️➡️The total annihilation of Nturo is proof that there is ongoing ethnic cleansing of the Congolese Tutsi in eastern DRC. It shows the impact of genocide ideology in the region, as systematic attacks on Congolese Tutsi in Kitchanga and Bwiza by FDLR also took place. ➡️➡️This tragedy similarly highlights that Nturo residents were feeling safe under the presence of #M23. However, when #M23 withdrew in March 2023, letting EAC take over, the security of Nturo residents drastically decreased. This particular element seems to legitimize the existence of #M23. ➡️➡️➡️ In view of these observations, could we conclude that #M23 is the solution to insecurity in Eastern DRC? (Video by TEDDY MAZINA)

Bojana Coulibaly, Ph.D.

178,904 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce