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HOW IS THIS QUANT BOT MAKING $12,422 PER DAY? +$211,174 in just 17 days. Not by predicting Bitcoin. By exploiting math. Public wallet: Since March 25, the wallet switched to a completely different style. High-frequency market making. Every second it scans for small pricing mistakes. Most traders need a...

12,556 次观看 • 2 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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Chinese student used AI from Anthropic to turn $1,000 into $1,500,000 He studies at Tsinghua University in Beijing. His account is k9Q2m In such a young age he already make a million simply knowing the right formulas and being able to use Claude Result: $1,430 → $1,550,750 44,364 trades Win rate 100% The biggest win $23,600 on a single bet k9Q2m profile: How it bots work: The bot runs 6 formulas hedge funds use simultaneously, every tick. Most traders guess. This bot calculates. Formula 1 - LMSR Pricing Polymarket prices move on a logarithmic curve. The bot knows the exact price impact before entering. Market says 31¢ for BTC up in 5 minutes. The model sees the curve is mispriced. The bot enters before the correction. Formula 2 - Kelly Criterion Renaissance Capital uses it. Two Sigma uses it. Now your bot uses it. Every bet is sized exactly right. Never too big to blow the account. Never too small to matter. $1,000 bankroll. Consistent edge. Kelly compounds it into something real. Formula 3 - EV Gap Detection The bot scans every BTC market looking for one thing: - Where is the market price wrong by more than 5%? - Market says 30¢. Real probability is 55¢. EV = +0.52. The bot enters. Most people never see this gap. The bot never misses it. Formula 4 - KL-Divergence BTC 5-minute and 15-minute markets are correlated. When they drift apart - that's an arb. The bot measures the statistical distance between them every second. When it crosses 0.2, it flags the trade. This is how hedge funds extracted $100K+ on correlated election markets. The same logic runs here. Formula 5 - Bayesian Updates New block confirmed. Volume spike. Price movement. The bot doesn't ignore signals - it updates. Prior probability was 54%. New data comes in. Posterior jumps to 71%. The bot re-prices in real time while the market is still asleep. Formula 6 - Stoikov Execution Entering at the wrong moment kills the edge. The bot calculates the reservation price-the exact point where the risk-adjusted entry makes sense. It doesn't chase. It doesn't panic. It waits for the right tick, then fills What this means in practice: - Every few seconds the bot runs all six formulas in parallel. - If LMSR confirms mispricing - EV gap is above 5% - Kelly says the bet size is justified - Bayesian posterior agrees - KL-divergence flags the correlated drift - Stoikov clears the execution price Only then does the bot enter. Six filters. One trade. This isn't a trading bot. It's a hedge fund strategy running on a prediction market. The edge is real. The math is public. The difference is most people never build it. Just insert all these formulas into Claude and create your own bot Add this post to bookmarks so you don’t lose it Soon I will publish another bot with working formulas

AdiiX

718,185 次观看 • 4 个月前

I asked Claude Fable 5 (Extra High) to build an arb bot for Polymarket. One rule: trade only when YES + NO in 2 hours it almost doubled it (+$96.31) > in 5 hours it showed +$579 PnL > current balance: +$3,799.73 Cost: 10M tokens. Here's how it works and why: Every BTC Up/Down market on Polymarket has exactly two outcomes. YES and NO. When the market resolves, one pays $1. The other pays $0. That means owning BOTH sides should always cost exactly $1. But markets aren't perfect. Sometimes YES trades at $0.48 while NO trades at $0.49. Together that's only $0.97 so the bot instantly buys both. A position worth $1... for just $0.97. And Claude knows it, this is the simplest arb that exists. You can paste this to it and use this logic in your prompt. This $0.03 difference is locked in regardless of whether Bitcoin pumps, dumps, or goes sideways. No prediction required. And difficult part isn't finding the opportunity, it's execution. These pricing gaps usually disappear in seconds. If one order fills but the other doesn't, the trade can become a loss. So my bot constantly scans every BTC market, checks fees, validates liquidity, places both orders almost simultaneously and skips what isn't worth the risk. It's less like trading and more like catching tiny accounting mistakes before everyone else notices them. Funny enoughh, the hardest part was not writing arb logic. It was making the execution reliable enough that free money actually stayed free. This completely changed how I think about trading. What's the point of it if you can just fill mispriced BTC markets?? Automatically. The biggest edge is getting AI to execute simple ideas faster and more consistently than any human ever could. Shared the exact build in my last article, leaving it below. Good luck!

Oracle Boar

154,167 次观看 • 1 个月前

THIS WALLET STACKED $230K ON BTC UP/DOWN BETS. THE BLUEPRINT TO AUTOMATE THE SAME EDGE WITH CLAUDE The wallet is $230K all-time, every position a Bitcoin or Ethereum Up or Down market It never guesses direction. It enters only when the math and the market disagree THE STRATEGY: BTC moves are not fully random. When the market enters a committed directional state, continuation is measurable. That is Markov persistence Entry signal: > Δ = p̂ − q ≥ ε Model probability minus market price. Enter only on a 5% gap or more Persistence filter: > p(j*,j*) ≥ 0.87 Only trade states with 0.87 persistence or higher. Below that, skip. This is what holds the win rate above 65% with zero directional guessing Payout: > r = (1 − q) / q At q = 0.647 that is +54.5% a win. At q = 0.441, +126.7%. Lower entry price, bigger asymmetry Sizing: > f* = p − (1−p)/b Kelly. At p = 0.87, b = 0.647, f* ≈ 0.71. Size to the edge, never to gut HOW TO BUILD IT WITH CLAUDE: What separates this from a static bot: Claude reads its own trade journal every night and rewrites its own thresholds 1. Take an open-source Polymarket bot repo as your base logic. Feed it to Claude and have it migrate to CLOB v2: py_clob_client_v2, Safe wallet support, fee-aware evaluation 2. Hard-code the filters. Enter only when Δ ≥ 0.05 and p(j*,j*) ≥ 0.87. Apply Kelly on every fill. 3. Run DRY_RUN first. Log every signal, entry price, Markov state, and simulated P/L. No real money until the numbers hold for days 4. The nightly loop. Claude reads the journal, finds which persistence states actually won, adjusts MIN_PROB and MIN_EDGE, ships tomorrow's rules. The agent is sharper after 50 to 100 trades THE SETUP: Claude Opus as the brain. An open-source repo as the starting logic. A Polygon wallet with $50 to $100. Telegram for the morning report Start at $1 to $2 per trade while it learns. Scale only when the dry runs and the live fills line up 17,000 trades compound a thin edge into six figures. The model finds the edge. The nightly loop keeps it sharp Bookmark before you point a bot at your first window

Yarchi

22,966 次观看 • 2 个月前

Chat GPT + Polymarket = $1,000 / week And no, this is NOT about trading bots This is a PASSIVE strategy most people ignore Here's how to profit where almost nobody is looking: Let's take this one as example. #1 free app in the US App Store by January 16th ChatGPT YES is trading around 95% again. This market resets every single week. And almost every week, it resolves YES. Why this keeps working is simple. ChatGPT is now a part of our daily life. Daily usage is massive. Apple keeps featuring it. No random competitor holds #1 long enough. For this market to lose, all of this must happen fast: > A new app goes viral nationwide > It beats ChatGPT > It holds #1 exactly at the snapshot That almost never happens. So you don’t guess - you bet based on history AND VERIFY. Before betting, open Appfigures (or any other service like this). Live App Store rankings, public data. If ChatGPT is still #1 and Polymarket hasn’t fully repriced, the edge already exists. That’s the trade. You simply buy $1 for $0.95 That’s a 5% edge on something that resolves weekly. And this is where most people completely misjudge it. A 5% edge doesn’t feel exciting until you look at repetition. Even bonding at $0.99 still implies ~36% annualized. That’s not risking $10k to make $10. That’s turning time into yield. You’re not predicting growth. You’re getting paid to wait. Repeat it weekly, compound it, and suddenly: > $100 becomes $200 in ~12 clean cycles > Size scales without stress > Variance stays low If you enter right after market creation, pricing is often even better (some traders sniped YES at $0.79) This is how people quietly build size on Polymarket. Same market. Same math. New date. Polymarket doesn’t reward excitement, but patience and structure. Market link: [

Dexter's Lab

73,690 次观看 • 6 个月前

Claude 5.0 built a Chinese girl a trading bot. skip to 0:08 look at her journal, bot easily earns your monthly salary in a couple of days. how it works: the bot runs mean reversion on s&p 500 and nasdaq on 15-min candles, catching the small overextensions indices make every few hours. on bitcoin it switches to momentum breakouts on the 1-hour crypto trends harder than indices, so you ride the move instead of fading it. gold and oil get a slower trend-following layer on the 4-hour, because commodities move in cleaner waves and you don't want noise from intraday whipsaws. position sizing is ATR-based per instrument, so a quiet day on gold gets a bigger size than a volatile day on bitcoin - risk stays constant even when volatility doesn't. every trade has a hard 1% stop, no exceptions, no "let me give it room." and there's a correlation filter on top: if s&p and nasdaq are already long, it won't pile into another risk-on asset and double the real exposure. claude code writes and updates the logic. the bot just executes. then claude cowork sends her two messages a day: - 7am: what's happening in the market - 9pm: how did the bot do that's the whole job. two messages. five instruments. zero screen time. manually she could only watch one chart at a time. this thing watches five. doesn't sleep. doesn't tilt. doesn't revenge trade at 2am. what used to need a team of quants and a $200k bloomberg terminal now runs on a laptop and claude. And your friend is still trading manually and is constantly in the red. save this and read the article in the comments below to write your own bot using Claude

AdiiX

7,961,714 次观看 • 1 个月前

Polymarket added fees so most arbitrage bots died. Devs who spent months building strategies watched their edge disappear in one update. But a small group figured out how to stay profitable anyway. This wallet is making $27,000 every single day right now. $743,000 in 35 days. 31,566 predictions. Fully automated. And it is running the exact same strategy i broke down in my previous article. His wallet: < Here is exactly how it works and why fees didn't kill it: The bot trades crypto Up/Down markets across BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP simultaneously. Not randomly. With surgical precision on timing and entry price. Look at the realized moves: Bitcoin position turned $2,300 into $8,260. XRP position turned $10,105 into $22,100. Ethereum position turned $1,347 into $10,950. Those are not lucky trades. That is a system firing correctly at scale. The reason fees didn't destroy this bot is the same reason i explained before. Pure speed arbitrage bots died because their edge was margin - and fees ate the margin completely. This bot doesn't rely on tiny spread captures. It combines pair-sum arbitrage with precise entry timing to find windows where combined price is cheap enough that fees still leave meaningful profit on the table. The math only works at specific entry prices and specific timing windows. Most bots can't find those windows fast enough. This one can because the infrastructure is fast enough to compete. $27,000 per day from a strategy that survived the fee update while everyone else shut down. That is not luck. That is being technically ahead of the competition. The gap between bots that died and bots that kept printing was never the strategy. It was execution quality and infrastructure speed.

Punisher

34,167 次观看 • 3 个月前