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Polymarket front run bot Spent the last month building the backend for this bot which essentially acts the same way that high frequency trading bots work in the stock market It waits for a market buy order to come through where there is thin liquidity in the order book...

71,718 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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My Polymarket bot is finished! It’s fully automated, I just run it and let the magic happen. At the start of each "Bitcoin Up or Down" round, the bot only watches the market during the first 2 minutes (configurable). If, during that time, either UP or DOWN drops fast enough, a price drop of at least 15% over 3 seconds (configurable), the bot triggers Leg 1 and immediately buys the side that dumped. After this first buy, the bot will never buy the same side again. Instead, it waits for a hedge opportunity on the opposite side. The hedge (Leg 2) is triggered only when: Leg1 entry price + current opposite ask price auto on [sum=0.95] [move=0.15] [windowMin=2] > shares: number of shares bought each time (for both Leg 1 and Leg 2) > sum: total price threshold that allows the hedge > move: dump threshold (e.g. 0.15 = 15%) > windowMin: number of minutes from the start of the round during which Leg 1 is allowed In this example, I ran: auto on 10 0.95 0.15 4 The bot watched the market for the first 4 minutes and bought 10 DOWN shares at $0.35 after a 17% drop in 3 seconds. A few seconds later, it bought 10 UP shares at $0.56, because: 0.56 + 0.35 = 0.91 < 0.95 That locked in a clean 9% profit. Why limit the strategy to the first 4 minutes of the round? Because early in the cycle, the market still has time to dump further and then stabilize. The closer you get to the end of the round, the lower the probability of seeing large corrective moves. Early on, there’s still time for volatility to play out. You can watch the video, the first order triggers at 2:50, and the second order at 3:02. If you’re interested in the bot, DM me.

The Smart Ape 🔥

202,615 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

In 2025 I created an Arbitrage Bot for Kalshi Polymarket Opinion The results were actually quite surprising I will share how much I've been able to make using the bot at the end of the thread! But first, how does it even work? 1. The Strategy A lot of the viral trading bots on X for Prediction Markets are trying to trade just within Polymarket, mostly on highly volatile markets. Buying quickly / selling quickly, this works great if you’re a VC with an infinite budget for development and the fastest infrastructure positioned right next to Polymarkets servers, but doesn't work great for regular traders. I knew building a bot here is like trying to out sprint Usain Bolt wearing flip flops So instead if i wanted to make a bot it would have to be doing something I haven't seen anyone else do So after engaging 100% of my brain I remembered how I'd seen many of the same markets when browsing Kalshi that I'd previously seen on Polymarket. If the odds were different I'd actually be able to arbitrage the two platforms. After checking 20 or so pairs I found a few examples where the odds were different, proving my theory. So i started building 2. The Bot I began crafting an algorithm that collects all the Polymarket, Kalshi & Opinion markets and identifies any that are the same. In total that's over 6,000,000 markets, billions of potential combinations, from that i found around 6,000 that match. A lot of markets have the same title, but slight differences in the rules that means an arbitrage is not possible. For example ‘Will Trump meet XYZ person before ABC date’ - many of these exist between Poly Kalshi but Kalshi defines ‘meeting’ as online, or in real life, whilst Polymarket defines it strictly as in real life. To verify the matches I first used an algorithm that sees if the titles / rules are similar, then I feed every one of those potential pairs into an LLM that is prompted to approve / reject the potential match. This part sounds like it should be easy, but the LLMs were all so inconsistent. I’d pass the same market 10 times and it would reject it twice and approve it eight times. After a lot of prompt engineering I finally got it to a stage where it's at least 99% accurate. The bot then recreates locally all the orderbooks for the matched markets and looks for any pairs with YES + NO values of < $1 & calculate how much you can profitably buy of each side ( your EV ) 3. An Example ‘SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap? 900B to 1T' This market exists on both Poly & Opinion, but right now the odds are different. YES / NO 4% / 97% - Polymarket 10% / 92% - Opinion Lets say you told the bot you wanted to trade $100 You’d split it $3.85 into Polymarket YES for 104.743 Shares $96.15 into Opinion NO for 104.743 Shares You spent $100, and you got 104.7 shares of each side And because 1 YES + 1 NO = $1 ( when the markets are identical ) Your expected profit is $4.7, because: value ( 104.7 shares * $1 ) - cost ( $100 ) = profit ( 4.7 Shares / $4.7 ) Then once the odds rebalance, usually a few days to a week, you can sell both sides and use the principal + the profit to take another arbitrage $100 isn't much, but imagine if you did $1000, or $10,000 every few days. Since creating the bot it has been finding around $350,000 in arbitrages from over 5,000 matching market pairs every month. That's more than I could ever take my self Assuming an average of 4% per arb (often more), It would take over $8,750,000 deployed to capture them all simultaneously That's why I initially shared the bot with some sharp sportsbook bettors for commission on their trades, eventually making it a public version that's on AlertPilot for anyone to use. 4. The Longevity Will this work forever? No, eventually a VC will come and eat our free lunch, it will become more competitive and the spreads wont be as high as they are now (+10% at times). My mantra here is just to make the most of it whilst I can, and release consistent updates so that it remains competitive against the competition. I already have a head start in that regard. I will say over the last 3 months of using the bot myself, plus adding traders / syndicates to the platform to trade as well, the amount of Arbitrages found has only increased. In large part no doubt to the huge increase in volume on PM’s, especially Opinion where many of the more profitable arbitrages have been. 5. The Profit So how much did I make? I started with a bankroll of $1,000 as I was skeptical initially how well the bot would work, first week I was able to close two 5% arbs. I then increased my bank roll and started sharing the bot with other traders. Since then I've been averaging five figures every month from my own trades + commissions. Anywhere between 12% to 20% per month in closed arbs, personally. To anyone reading this that wants to arbitraging these markets, i've released a version of the bot on AlertPilot! And for any VCs or betting syndicate that wants to trade these markets, my DMs are open. Aspiring trading bot makers, there is money out there if you can be creative in your strategies Have lots of plans for AlertPilot + the Arbitrage bot going into 2026. Happy new year everybody!

SecureZero is Hiring 

13,638 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

Why is Palantir so expensive? You don’t need to look at spreadsheets. Just consider this: The market knows NVIDIA sells the shovels for the AI goldrush. The market is realizing that AI isn’t being monetized at the commercial level because although it’s cool, it’s not unlocking any real insights yet. The market now anticipates that Palantir is selling the maps to find the gold…. Gold being AI-driven insights that actually solve difficult problems. Software that works. Since 2021, NVIDIA’s revenue has exploded from $16B to $96B. Palantir’s TTM revenue is $2.5B. The trajectory of Palantir has changed since AIP released in 2023, which is enabling the company to scale. If NVIDIA sells the shovels, and Palantir provides the maps, then the market believes Palantir will see the same explosion of growth within the commercial market, which the market believes has an almost unlimited TAM for Palantir. A lot of people missed out on NVIDIA. While Palantir’s market cap is expensive at $95B, it is nothing compared to NVIDIA’s $3.26T market cap in terms of size. The market doesn’t want to miss out on the next big thing. At this point, investors have thrown all standard methods of valuation out of the window… Those days were years ago. To me, at this point, buying the stock is betting on NVIDIA-like growth (No I’m not saying the company will shoot to a $3T market cap in 2 years — you get the point). If the company does not show this sort of revenue growth, the stock will be punished. This is the risk investors are willing to take. While I am very bullish on the company in the long run, I, like everyone else, have no clue what will actually happen in the short term. This is not a stock to play on the short term. This is why I continue to hold, regardless of how “expensive” the stock gets. I personally believe Palantir does in fact carry the potential to see explosive revenue growth to more than enough justify its current ratios. I’m not saying it will happen this quarter. But the potential is there. It’s a matter of when, in my opinion. I would never risk selling what I view as my golden ticket to wealth with the justification of “it’s too expensive, the price will come back down and I can buy even more then”. If the stock crashes, I can start buying more shares regardless — I don’t want to get greedy and try to time the market. I would never forgive myself if I sold and the stock ended up soaring so high that even after a crash, it would be far too expensive for me to get back in with my original position size (plus capital gains tax). I don’t care who agrees with me or who thinks I’m crazy for saying this — it’s a real risk to me and I’m not willing to take it. This is not me telling you to buy $PLTR. My average is $8.50. Only you can decide what is right, and your decision should be made on your own level of conviction from studying the company — nothing else. This is me telling you why it’s so expensive. Again, I believe that if the stock does not continue to crush earnings each quarter, even the slightest miss, the stock will be punished in the short term. For longs, it’s another opportunity to accumulate more. This is my opinion, of course. 5-10 years from now, we’ll see who was right. Chips & Ontology.

Jack Prescott

258,450 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

I vibe-coded a bot for the 5M / 15M BTC markets on Polymarket. Releasing it for you for free. Open source (Python). I just earned $400 today on Polymarket with this tool myself It doesn’t trade It just prints a signal in the console: UP or DOWN 🔸 The signal appears a few seconds before the Polymarket market actually moves. The bot exploits a Chainlink oracle inefficiency. What matters is that it consistently gives you a 4-8 second lead over the actual quotes on Polymarket. In practice, you’re seeing a few seconds into the future. What you can do with it: 🔸 Possible strategies: 1/ Momentum sniper Bot gives a signal -> instant entry into the current 5-minute market in the direction of the signal (Yes/No). Works best during strong moves >0.3-0.5%. 2/ Last-second scalp before market expiration 3-12 seconds before the 5-minute candle closes, you already see where the BTC candle is going to close. -> Enter Polymarket at the very last moment. 3/ Hedging + arbitrage Strong signal against the current Yes/No price -> hedge your position or catch crowd squeezes. Especially juicy in the final seconds, when odds are still fat, but the outcome is almost decided. 🔸 This is pure price update inefficiency. Open the 5M or 15M BTC market yourself. Run the bot. Watch who moves first. Until this gets tightened up - it’s a clean inefficiency. And yes, if you ape your entire deposit into it, the market will punish you fast. 🔸 But as a tool - this is the closest thing to a "Polymarket money printer" setup I’ve seen recently. Python bot setup instructions on GitHub: DYOR. Print hard, print smart.

0xLanister

18,295 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

On Polymarket this bot outperforms luck. In 3 weeks it turned -$82 into $67K. A single algorithm executed 524 trades in one 10-min window. → Account: When I first analyzed the trade history I thought the API was malfunctioning. You never see over 500 orders in one candle unless the system is broken. But I checked the timestamps. It was not a glitch. It is a flawless mathematical strategy. While most traders panic about where Bitcoin is going next, this bot plays a superior game. It buys the Yes side and the No side simultaneously. It sounds impossible to make money this way but here is the logic. During the first 5 minutes the market is confused and spreads are wide. It buys Yes at 47 cents. It buys No at 48 cents. It sells them back seconds later for a tiny profit. It acts as a Market Maker. It harvests the chaos. It does not care about the direction yet. It is just collecting the dust from your hesitation. But then the real move happens. Around minute five the Bitcoin trend becomes obvious on the spot market. The bot instantly changes behavior. It stops hedging. It dumps the loser immediately. Then it aggressively loads the winner. It starts buying massive clips. 120 shares here or 500 shares there. It chases the price all the way up to 85 cents or 93 cents. By the end it holds 7,000 shares of the winning outcome. The stats are ridiculous. It climbed out of debt to generate $67K pure profit. 95% win rate. Normal traders try to guess. This bot waits for certainty and then extracts maximum value. You need to stop staring at the charts and start tracking the flow. Is this the new reality of trading or just an overly aggressive script?

Blaze

43,480 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten