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How To Manage The Bitcoin Bounce 🔊 Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough breaks down $BTC's current setup, noting it has formed a higher low above the prior closing low of $62,800 and is holding just above $71,000, but warns this is not an ideal entry point. He explains that the... show more

Hedgeye

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McCullough: Bitcoin Doesn’t Care About Your Cost Basis 🔊 Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough made it clear this week: when downside accelerates, the market isn’t debating your cost basis or favorite “support level.” In fact, “the situation is accelerating at an accelerating rate,” explains McCullough. That’s why we focus on the rate of change, especially the volatility of volatility. “The volatility of volatility is going to get you to the right answer faster than the crowd.” Get Keith's quantitative Risk Range™ Signals and daily analysis on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and more, with our $BTC Trend Tracker: And for risk management insights you won’t get anywhere else, subscribe to The Macro Show:

McCullough: Bitcoin Doesn’t Care About Your Cost Basis 🔊 Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough made it clear this week: when downside accelerates, the market isn’t debating your cost basis or favorite “support level.” In fact, “the situation is accelerating at an accelerating rate,” explains McCullough. That’s why we focus on the rate of change, especially the volatility of volatility. “The volatility of volatility is going to get you to the right answer faster than the crowd.” Get Keith's quantitative Risk Range™ Signals and daily analysis on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and more, with our $BTC Trend Tracker: And for risk management insights you won’t get anywhere else, subscribe to The Macro Show:

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McCullough: Watch Volatility $VIX (Very) Closely 📈 The $VIX is at a critical tipping point as markets (once again) bounce after a big down day. 🔊 Will it be able to finally close below 29 and exit what we affectionately call "The F*$k Bucket?" It has stubbornly stayed above that line every trading day since April 3rd, causing wild swings in market prices. In this clip from "The Macro Show," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains why he is watching for that level so closely. "The biggest question for me is, 'Is the VIX going to make its first lower-high of the cycle?' and 'Will be above its prior closing low?'" McCullough says. "If it happens, it's less bearish for the next trade. It doesn't mean I wasn't ragingly bearish a week ago. It just means that's what would make me less bearish a week later." If the VIX stays above 29, however, Tuesday's bounce could be yet another one to fade, McCullough says. Stay disciplined in volatile times by subscribing to "The Macro Show":

McCullough: Watch Volatility $VIX (Very) Closely 📈 The $VIX is at a critical tipping point as markets (once again) bounce after a big down day. 🔊 Will it be able to finally close below 29 and exit what we affectionately call "The F*$k Bucket?" It has stubbornly stayed above that line every trading day since April 3rd, causing wild swings in market prices. In this clip from "The Macro Show," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains why he is watching for that level so closely. "The biggest question for me is, 'Is the VIX going to make its first lower-high of the cycle?' and 'Will be above its prior closing low?'" McCullough says. "If it happens, it's less bearish for the next trade. It doesn't mean I wasn't ragingly bearish a week ago. It just means that's what would make me less bearish a week later." If the VIX stays above 29, however, Tuesday's bounce could be yet another one to fade, McCullough says. Stay disciplined in volatile times by subscribing to "The Macro Show":

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‘The Story vs. The Signal’: McGough + McCullough Discuss Beyond $BYON After Brian McGough's conversation with Beyond Executive Chairman Marcus Lemonis in Friday's exclusive Hedgeye webcast, Hedgeye's Retail analyst is moving $BYON to the top of his “Best Idea” Long list. “You didn’t miss [the stock move] because it’s going to double from here, and I think next year it’s going to double again,” Brian McGough explained today on The Call @ Hedgeye. Keith McCullough warns investors to temper expectations and stick to the process. “It can easily go [down] to $30 by the end of the week, then you can buy it there, which is the low end of the range,” added Hedgeye's CEO. “Right when you think it’s never going to go down, it will.” ▶️Watch the full clip:

‘The Story vs. The Signal’: McGough + McCullough Discuss Beyond $BYON After Brian McGough's conversation with Beyond Executive Chairman Marcus Lemonis in Friday's exclusive Hedgeye webcast, Hedgeye's Retail analyst is moving $BYON to the top of his “Best Idea” Long list. “You didn’t miss [the stock move] because it’s going to double from here, and I think next year it’s going to double again,” Brian McGough explained today on The Call @ Hedgeye. Keith McCullough warns investors to temper expectations and stick to the process. “It can easily go [down] to $30 by the end of the week, then you can buy it there, which is the low end of the range,” added Hedgeye's CEO. “Right when you think it’s never going to go down, it will.” ▶️Watch the full clip:

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McCullough: ‘Bitcoin May Be Bottoming’ 📉 In this clip from "The Macro Show," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough breaks down the latest market signals pointing to a potential bottom in Bitcoin after its drawdown from $125,000. Keith explains how Hedgeye’s quantitative risk management process has navigated every major move along the way – the drawdowns, the reversals, and the emerging signs of a regime shift. “So, if you want to go through how things stop signaling Quad 4, look at the worst place it's been Quad 4, which is of course Bitcoin,” McCullough says. Stay ahead of the next big move. Follow all of Keith’s signals with a subscription to "The Macro Show." ➡️

McCullough: ‘Bitcoin May Be Bottoming’ 📉 In this clip from "The Macro Show," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough breaks down the latest market signals pointing to a potential bottom in Bitcoin after its drawdown from $125,000. Keith explains how Hedgeye’s quantitative risk management process has navigated every major move along the way – the drawdowns, the reversals, and the emerging signs of a regime shift. “So, if you want to go through how things stop signaling Quad 4, look at the worst place it's been Quad 4, which is of course Bitcoin,” McCullough says. Stay ahead of the next big move. Follow all of Keith’s signals with a subscription to "The Macro Show." ➡️

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McCullough: Fed’s Powell Remains ‘Full of Sh*t’ 🔊 "How about them eggs? You been paying a lot for eggs?" 🍳 asks Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in this clip from “The Macro Show” this morning. It's become blatantly obvious that the Fed is either ignorant or outright lying about inflation. "[Powell] is full of sh*t," McCullough says. "It's getting worse. It's more of a clown show than it's ever been. And we know what to do with it: front-run the next print." * * * * * If you're new to Hedgeye, make sure to download our Founder & CEO Keith McCullough's new eBook "Master The Market: A Hedge Fund Manager’s Guide to Process and Profit" It's free here:

McCullough: Fed’s Powell Remains ‘Full of Sht’ 🔊 "How about them eggs? You been paying a lot for eggs?" 🍳 asks Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in this clip from “The Macro Show” this morning. It's become blatantly obvious that the Fed is either ignorant or outright lying about inflation. "[Powell] is full of sht," McCullough says. "It's getting worse. It's more of a clown show than it's ever been. And we know what to do with it: front-run the next print." * * * * * If you're new to Hedgeye, make sure to download our Founder & CEO Keith McCullough's new eBook "Master The Market: A Hedge Fund Manager’s Guide to Process and Profit" It's free here:

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Gold vs. Bitcoin: Navigating The Risk Divergence 📈 A reminder that you don't need to wear a drawdown in Bitcoin (or any asset for that matter) just because someone with "laser eyes" says to buy and hold at all times. At Hedgeye we manage risk, and if you did that properly, you would have handled the 1700 basis points divergence between gold $GLD and Bitcoin $BTC in February. That difference was fueled by a #Quad4 environment - but one that could soon be reversing. "Bitcoin is trying to make up its mind. It's got 3 or 4 days left of that. So what do you do? You wait and you watch," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains in this clip from "The Macro Show." "Everything is a number. The question is, do you see it?" * * * * * You can download Keith's new, 52-page eBook "Master The Market: A Hedge Fund Manager's Guide to Process and Profit" for FREE here:

Gold vs. Bitcoin: Navigating The Risk Divergence 📈 A reminder that you don't need to wear a drawdown in Bitcoin (or any asset for that matter) just because someone with "laser eyes" says to buy and hold at all times. At Hedgeye we manage risk, and if you did that properly, you would have handled the 1700 basis points divergence between gold $GLD and Bitcoin $BTC in February. That difference was fueled by a #Quad4 environment - but one that could soon be reversing. "Bitcoin is trying to make up its mind. It's got 3 or 4 days left of that. So what do you do? You wait and you watch," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains in this clip from "The Macro Show." "Everything is a number. The question is, do you see it?" * * * * * You can download Keith's new, 52-page eBook "Master The Market: A Hedge Fund Manager's Guide to Process and Profit" for FREE here:

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McCullough: Process > Predictions In this clip from "The Macro Show," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains a core truth about Wall Street—and what makes Hedgeye different. 🔊 While traditional Wall Street thrives on making predictions, flashy “calls” and selling narratives, Hedgeye is built around a repeatable, risk-managed process. Keith explains why theories, fads and predictions come and go, but a disciplined approach delivers consistent results—particularly when markets get tough. We’re not in the business of hype at Hedgeye. We’re in the business of helping investors protect and compound their capital. That’s the power of process. We invite you to join us:

McCullough: Process > Predictions In this clip from "The Macro Show," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains a core truth about Wall Street—and what makes Hedgeye different. 🔊 While traditional Wall Street thrives on making predictions, flashy “calls” and selling narratives, Hedgeye is built around a repeatable, risk-managed process. Keith explains why theories, fads and predictions come and go, but a disciplined approach delivers consistent results—particularly when markets get tough. We’re not in the business of hype at Hedgeye. We’re in the business of helping investors protect and compound their capital. That’s the power of process. We invite you to join us:

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WATCH | The "Float" Game in Crypto Is Similar to Equities 🪙 Avalanche Avalanche🔺 Chief Strategy Officer Luigi D'Onorio DeMeo breaks down how "The Game" is played with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough 🔊 Watch the interview free on-demand:

WATCH | The "Float" Game in Crypto Is Similar to Equities 🪙 Avalanche Avalanche🔺 Chief Strategy Officer Luigi D'Onorio DeMeo breaks down how "The Game" is played with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough 🔊 Watch the interview free on-demand:

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59,895 Aufrufe • vor 10 Monaten

"When bonds do well, then obviously you just have to own bonds as the 40%. You don't have to look any further. But when bonds don't do well, gold is the hedge against that 40%." 🔊 Watch the full webcast with Jurrien Timmer and Keith McCullough free:

"When bonds do well, then obviously you just have to own bonds as the 40%. You don't have to look any further. But when bonds don't do well, gold is the hedge against that 40%." 🔊 Watch the full webcast with Jurrien Timmer and Keith McCullough free:

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37,128 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

MCCULLOUGH: Sizing Your Positions Correctly Is Mission Critical 🔊 Picture this. You wake up and check your portfolio. A position you own is down 3% in pre-market moves. Are you panicking? Are you overwhelmed by your feelings? As Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains in this clip from "The Macro Show," you wouldn't be freaking out if you size your positions properly. "If you're on tilt, it's probably because your position sizing is too big and you're not diversified enough," McCullough says. "You have to fix that." Watch this full clip for an important lesson on how Keith sizes positions in his portfolio - using our current exposure to energy as an example - so you can fade your feelings too. * * * Get daily, actionable insights from a top Wall Street veteran, guiding you through important macro trends and portfolio risk management. Your edge starts here:

MCCULLOUGH: Sizing Your Positions Correctly Is Mission Critical 🔊 Picture this. You wake up and check your portfolio. A position you own is down 3% in pre-market moves. Are you panicking? Are you overwhelmed by your feelings? As Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains in this clip from "The Macro Show," you wouldn't be freaking out if you size your positions properly. "If you're on tilt, it's probably because your position sizing is too big and you're not diversified enough," McCullough says. "You have to fix that." Watch this full clip for an important lesson on how Keith sizes positions in his portfolio - using our current exposure to energy as an example - so you can fade your feelings too. * * * Get daily, actionable insights from a top Wall Street veteran, guiding you through important macro trends and portfolio risk management. Your edge starts here:

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McCullough: No Recession—Rates Don’t Lie Markets can’t hide from the signals embedded in interest rates. 🔊 In this clip from The Macro Show, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough unpacks critical signals across the curve—each pointing to the same conclusion: the U.S. economy is accelerating. There’s no recession in sight. "We positioned for Quad 4 from February all the way to April. The Street started talking about a U.S. recession pending, which we did not," McCullough says. "Instead of entering a recession...credit risk continued to go down." That’s the key. While headlines warned of a slowdown, rates told a different story of acceleration, not recession. The yield curve steepened, credit spreads tightened—clear signals of a shifting market structure aligned with a strengthening economy. “We have a process to signal a recession…that is not it,” McCullough explains. “Paying attention to interest rates not only across the curve, inside of the shape of the curve—we’re long a steepener. I was adding to that on Friday too." Stay on top of the real macro signals by subscribing to "The Macro Show".

McCullough: No Recession—Rates Don’t Lie Markets can’t hide from the signals embedded in interest rates. 🔊 In this clip from The Macro Show, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough unpacks critical signals across the curve—each pointing to the same conclusion: the U.S. economy is accelerating. There’s no recession in sight. "We positioned for Quad 4 from February all the way to April. The Street started talking about a U.S. recession pending, which we did not," McCullough says. "Instead of entering a recession...credit risk continued to go down." That’s the key. While headlines warned of a slowdown, rates told a different story of acceleration, not recession. The yield curve steepened, credit spreads tightened—clear signals of a shifting market structure aligned with a strengthening economy. “We have a process to signal a recession…that is not it,” McCullough explains. “Paying attention to interest rates not only across the curve, inside of the shape of the curve—we’re long a steepener. I was adding to that on Friday too." Stay on top of the real macro signals by subscribing to "The Macro Show".

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$The Market’s Most Bearish Signal Right Now ⚠️ A key Hedgeye Risk Range Signal™ just flipped: Nvidia $NVDA is now in a Bearish trend. 🔊 In this clip from "The Macro Show," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough breaks down why this shift matters. NVDA’s massive weighting in the market drives major moves—on Tuesday alone, it traded 254 million shares, accounting for nearly 12% of the S&P 500’s total upside. Yet, despite recent gains, NVDA remains in a Bearish trend. "In fractal math, we call these emergent properties—developments that set up the next pattern," McCullough explains. "What’s the next pattern? The stock market blowing up? Nvidia has already blown up." * * * * * * * Stay ahead of market shifts. Download Keith's new, 52-page eBook for FREE and see for yourself that there's a better way to protect and grow your money:$

The Market’s Most Bearish Signal Right Now ⚠️ A key Hedgeye Risk Range Signal™ just flipped: Nvidia $NVDA is now in a Bearish trend. 🔊 In this clip from "The Macro Show," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough breaks down why this shift matters. NVDA’s massive weighting in the market drives major moves—on Tuesday alone, it traded 254 million shares, accounting for nearly 12% of the S&P 500’s total upside. Yet, despite recent gains, NVDA remains in a Bearish trend. "In fractal math, we call these emergent properties—developments that set up the next pattern," McCullough explains. "What’s the next pattern? The stock market blowing up? Nvidia has already blown up." * * * * * * * Stay ahead of market shifts. Download Keith's new, 52-page eBook for FREE and see for yourself that there's a better way to protect and grow your money:

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Rune Christensen, Co-Founder of Sky (Sky), on USDS, STUSDS, and risk tiers in DeFi "Lindy, like stablecoin product with a really really reasonable rate of return" "right now it's at 3.75%, which is actually 10 points above SOFR" "a lot of people dunking on DeFi for not being able to beat TradFi, but USDS does in fact still beat TradFi and is very much highly risk optimized" "with Sky you can also use a product like STUSDS, which is a higher risk token that still has this link to the US dollar" "you can actually go even more high risk and buy something like SPK, which is a completely volatile governance token of one of the Sky agents" "STUSDS, because it's a risk token and it's explicitly marketed as risk capital, it's for advanced users because it has higher risk" "it's not just a stablecoin that is designed to protect you above everything else" "with STUSDS it's also about being able to offer a higher rate of return" "one of the consequences of this is that it can have its liquidity, its one to one liquidity with USDS frozen"

Rune Christensen, Co-Founder of Sky (Sky), on USDS, STUSDS, and risk tiers in DeFi "Lindy, like stablecoin product with a really really reasonable rate of return" "right now it's at 3.75%, which is actually 10 points above SOFR" "a lot of people dunking on DeFi for not being able to beat TradFi, but USDS does in fact still beat TradFi and is very much highly risk optimized" "with Sky you can also use a product like STUSDS, which is a higher risk token that still has this link to the US dollar" "you can actually go even more high risk and buy something like SPK, which is a completely volatile governance token of one of the Sky agents" "STUSDS, because it's a risk token and it's explicitly marketed as risk capital, it's for advanced users because it has higher risk" "it's not just a stablecoin that is designed to protect you above everything else" "with STUSDS it's also about being able to offer a higher rate of return" "one of the consequences of this is that it can have its liquidity, its one to one liquidity with USDS frozen"

Frontliner 💯

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Q showing how to buy stock that setup (opening range highs + ATR). How do I enter on this setup? usually you buy it opening range highs like when it takes out the first one minute or five minute candle but you really don't even need to look at the uh intraday chart you really don't you just have to pay attention where when are they breaking the ranges that's just visually on the daily chart like $NVAX you know if it starts breaking that 150 area you would see it on the daily chart 150 151 and then you have to pay attention to average true range okay is the stock like sometimes they gap up a little bit but you have to look, okay if I buy let's say the stock gets to like what is at 153 okay let's say and it closed at 147 today and tomorrow it uh is at 153 intraday then you just look at okay it's up six bucks intraday it's up six dollars but the average true range is 13.6 so it's up less than half of its average true range that means you can buy it as long as the good setup is good and then you have a stop at low of the day and then after three to five days you sell half move your stop to break even and just keep trail on the 10-day moving average

Q showing how to buy stock that setup (opening range highs + ATR). How do I enter on this setup? usually you buy it opening range highs like when it takes out the first one minute or five minute candle but you really don't even need to look at the uh intraday chart you really don't you just have to pay attention where when are they breaking the ranges that's just visually on the daily chart like $NVAX you know if it starts breaking that 150 area you would see it on the daily chart 150 151 and then you have to pay attention to average true range okay is the stock like sometimes they gap up a little bit but you have to look, okay if I buy let's say the stock gets to like what is at 153 okay let's say and it closed at 147 today and tomorrow it uh is at 153 intraday then you just look at okay it's up six bucks intraday it's up six dollars but the average true range is 13.6 so it's up less than half of its average true range that means you can buy it as long as the good setup is good and then you have a stop at low of the day and then after three to five days you sell half move your stop to break even and just keep trail on the 10-day moving average

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Short $META: Hedgeye Analyst Andrew Freedman Nails It In today’s edition of The Call @ Hedgeye, Communications analyst Andrew Freedman, CFA 🦅 and Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough recap Freedman’s short $META call made on Monday before the company crashed nearly 15% after yesterday’s earnings report. “A lot of bullish investors are saying ‘buy the dip, this is an opportunity,’ but, if this plays out like we expect, that’s going to be a mistake,” said Freedman. “The next move if you’re long $META is to sell it,” added McCullough. “It’s not to rationalize it on valuation.” Click to watch the full breakdown:

Short $META: Hedgeye Analyst Andrew Freedman Nails It In today’s edition of The Call @ Hedgeye, Communications analyst Andrew Freedman, CFA 🦅 and Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough recap Freedman’s short $META call made on Monday before the company crashed nearly 15% after yesterday’s earnings report. “A lot of bullish investors are saying ‘buy the dip, this is an opportunity,’ but, if this plays out like we expect, that’s going to be a mistake,” said Freedman. “The next move if you’re long $META is to sell it,” added McCullough. “It’s not to rationalize it on valuation.” Click to watch the full breakdown:

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$McCullough: How We Nailed Dr. Copper (And Why You Shouldn't Chase) The Hedgeye process had our subscribers prepared ahead of Copper's $CPER surge to all-time highs on Wednesday. "The AI signal, the fractal patterns, that we have embedded in our process certainly saw this coming," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says. Now, what do we do with an all-time-high? A: You do NOT chase it. You sell SOME, lock in some gains, and use those funds to buy something else. "These aren't 'calls.' These are executions of the process." "And if you sell some, you could buy something like uranium. They're both things that are in the same inflation category. One is for sale, the other is overbought." Don't chase the rip after the headlines. Follow the Hedgeye process and subscribe to The Macro Show.$

McCullough: How We Nailed Dr. Copper (And Why You Shouldn't Chase) The Hedgeye process had our subscribers prepared ahead of Copper's $CPER surge to all-time highs on Wednesday. "The AI signal, the fractal patterns, that we have embedded in our process certainly saw this coming," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says. Now, what do we do with an all-time-high? A: You do NOT chase it. You sell SOME, lock in some gains, and use those funds to buy something else. "These aren't 'calls.' These are executions of the process." "And if you sell some, you could buy something like uranium. They're both things that are in the same inflation category. One is for sale, the other is overbought." Don't chase the rip after the headlines. Follow the Hedgeye process and subscribe to The Macro Show.

Hedgeye

41,316 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Buzz Williams shares how entitlement and gratitude are connected and why you can only have one. "When entitlement is high, gratitude is low." "Why would gratitude be low? Because you're being selfish. 'Hey, I'm supposed to get this.'" "If ego and arrogance are a part of entitlement - which they are - then I can't function with the level of gratitude that it takes." Then he connected the dots: "If my entitlement is high, my gratitude is low. If my gratitude is low, then I'm not present...You see how they're connected?" Entitlement pulls you out of the moment. Gratitude keeps you in it. Then he had them flip it: "When gratitude is high, entitlement is low." You can't be grateful and entitled at the same time. Entitlement is the enemy of progress. It's the delusion of earning without earning. Be grateful for the moment and the opportunity. (🎥Buzz Williams)

Buzz Williams shares how entitlement and gratitude are connected and why you can only have one. "When entitlement is high, gratitude is low." "Why would gratitude be low? Because you're being selfish. 'Hey, I'm supposed to get this.'" "If ego and arrogance are a part of entitlement - which they are - then I can't function with the level of gratitude that it takes." Then he connected the dots: "If my entitlement is high, my gratitude is low. If my gratitude is low, then I'm not present...You see how they're connected?" Entitlement pulls you out of the moment. Gratitude keeps you in it. Then he had them flip it: "When gratitude is high, entitlement is low." You can't be grateful and entitled at the same time. Entitlement is the enemy of progress. It's the delusion of earning without earning. Be grateful for the moment and the opportunity. (🎥Buzz Williams)

Coach AJ 🎯 Mental Fitness

32,482 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten