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McCullough: Bitcoin Doesn’t Care About Your Cost Basis 🔊 Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough made it clear this week: when downside accelerates, the market isn’t debating your cost basis or favorite “support level.” In fact, “the situation is accelerating at an accelerating rate,” explains McCullough. That’s why we focus on... show more

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McCullough: ‘Bitcoin May Be Bottoming’ 📉 In this clip from "The Macro Show," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough breaks down the latest market signals pointing to a potential bottom in Bitcoin after its drawdown from $125,000. Keith explains how Hedgeye’s quantitative risk management process has navigated every major move along the way – the drawdowns, the reversals, and the emerging signs of a regime shift. “So, if you want to go through how things stop signaling Quad 4, look at the worst place it's been Quad 4, which is of course Bitcoin,” McCullough says. Stay ahead of the next big move. Follow all of Keith’s signals with a subscription to "The Macro Show." ➡️

McCullough: ‘Bitcoin May Be Bottoming’ 📉 In this clip from "The Macro Show," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough breaks down the latest market signals pointing to a potential bottom in Bitcoin after its drawdown from $125,000. Keith explains how Hedgeye’s quantitative risk management process has navigated every major move along the way – the drawdowns, the reversals, and the emerging signs of a regime shift. “So, if you want to go through how things stop signaling Quad 4, look at the worst place it's been Quad 4, which is of course Bitcoin,” McCullough says. Stay ahead of the next big move. Follow all of Keith’s signals with a subscription to "The Macro Show." ➡️

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When Will MSM Tell the Truth on Food Inflation? 🍳 🔊 Prices for U.S. consumers continue to rise, with the cost of eggs in particular skyrocketing over 7% in the last day alone and 12% over the last month. While the mainstream media was quick to report on (imaginary) improved prices for the cost of Thanksgiving dinner, they're predictably silent on this topic. "When people go to the store, they actually notice these things," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains in the clip below from "The Macro Show." * * * * * Tired of the MSM BS? We are too. Stay ahead of market moves with "The Macro Show" hosted weekday mornings by Keith McCullough. Get daily, actionable insights from a top Wall Street veteran, guiding you through important macro trends and portfolio risk management. Your edge starts here:

When Will MSM Tell the Truth on Food Inflation? 🍳 🔊 Prices for U.S. consumers continue to rise, with the cost of eggs in particular skyrocketing over 7% in the last day alone and 12% over the last month. While the mainstream media was quick to report on (imaginary) improved prices for the cost of Thanksgiving dinner, they're predictably silent on this topic. "When people go to the store, they actually notice these things," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains in the clip below from "The Macro Show." * * * * * Tired of the MSM BS? We are too. Stay ahead of market moves with "The Macro Show" hosted weekday mornings by Keith McCullough. Get daily, actionable insights from a top Wall Street veteran, guiding you through important macro trends and portfolio risk management. Your edge starts here:

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McCullough: WW3? The Numbers Say No Many investors got baited by "soundbite investing" over the weekend after the contentious Oval Office meeting between U.S. President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky. Instead of getting swept up in headlines like a "Macro Tourist," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough reminds investors to focus on the unemotional numbers. "I'm not here to make comments on Ukraine—the oil market is," McCullough explains in this clip from "The Macro Show." "Oil is the number one geopolitical risk factor, if you had to pick one. Or the UK 10-year bond yield is up 10 basis points today. If we were going into World War Three, that would not be happening." Hedgeye Director of Research Daryl Jones Jonesy adds, "If you look at specific soundbites, it looks really bad. Then if you make the analysis based on that limited information, you get it wrong." * * * * * * * The best way to steer clear of "soundbite investing" is to follow our unique, data-driven process. If you've read this far, you should take this opportunity to download Keith's new, 52-page eBook "Master The Market." It will give you the tools to succeed. Get the eBook FREE here:

McCullough: WW3? The Numbers Say No Many investors got baited by "soundbite investing" over the weekend after the contentious Oval Office meeting between U.S. President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky. Instead of getting swept up in headlines like a "Macro Tourist," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough reminds investors to focus on the unemotional numbers. "I'm not here to make comments on Ukraine—the oil market is," McCullough explains in this clip from "The Macro Show." "Oil is the number one geopolitical risk factor, if you had to pick one. Or the UK 10-year bond yield is up 10 basis points today. If we were going into World War Three, that would not be happening." Hedgeye Director of Research Daryl Jones Jonesy adds, "If you look at specific soundbites, it looks really bad. Then if you make the analysis based on that limited information, you get it wrong." * * * * * * * The best way to steer clear of "soundbite investing" is to follow our unique, data-driven process. If you've read this far, you should take this opportunity to download Keith's new, 52-page eBook "Master The Market." It will give you the tools to succeed. Get the eBook FREE here:

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McCullough: Process > Predictions In this clip from "The Macro Show," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains a core truth about Wall Street—and what makes Hedgeye different. 🔊 While traditional Wall Street thrives on making predictions, flashy “calls” and selling narratives, Hedgeye is built around a repeatable, risk-managed process. Keith explains why theories, fads and predictions come and go, but a disciplined approach delivers consistent results—particularly when markets get tough. We’re not in the business of hype at Hedgeye. We’re in the business of helping investors protect and compound their capital. That’s the power of process. We invite you to join us:

McCullough: Process > Predictions In this clip from "The Macro Show," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains a core truth about Wall Street—and what makes Hedgeye different. 🔊 While traditional Wall Street thrives on making predictions, flashy “calls” and selling narratives, Hedgeye is built around a repeatable, risk-managed process. Keith explains why theories, fads and predictions come and go, but a disciplined approach delivers consistent results—particularly when markets get tough. We’re not in the business of hype at Hedgeye. We’re in the business of helping investors protect and compound their capital. That’s the power of process. We invite you to join us:

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McCullough: The Most Bullish Pivot Since 2020 Is Already Underway 🔊 Babe, wake up...The Quad Countdown is in motion. “The most important thing is getting the direction right… This is the most bullish pivot — Quad 3, 2, 1," explains Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. "By the time you get to 1, you’ve already missed it" As the data keeps surprising to the upside, it’s reinforcing the self-feeding loop that drives Quad 1 momentum higher. All eyes are on Friday’s delayed CPI number— the next key print for Wall Street. Subscribe to The Macro Show for insights you won’t find anywhere else.

McCullough: The Most Bullish Pivot Since 2020 Is Already Underway 🔊 Babe, wake up...The Quad Countdown is in motion. “The most important thing is getting the direction right… This is the most bullish pivot — Quad 3, 2, 1," explains Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. "By the time you get to 1, you’ve already missed it" As the data keeps surprising to the upside, it’s reinforcing the self-feeding loop that drives Quad 1 momentum higher. All eyes are on Friday’s delayed CPI number— the next key print for Wall Street. Subscribe to The Macro Show for insights you won’t find anywhere else.

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McCullough: No Recession—Rates Don’t Lie Markets can’t hide from the signals embedded in interest rates. 🔊 In this clip from The Macro Show, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough unpacks critical signals across the curve—each pointing to the same conclusion: the U.S. economy is accelerating. There’s no recession in sight. "We positioned for Quad 4 from February all the way to April. The Street started talking about a U.S. recession pending, which we did not," McCullough says. "Instead of entering a recession...credit risk continued to go down." That’s the key. While headlines warned of a slowdown, rates told a different story of acceleration, not recession. The yield curve steepened, credit spreads tightened—clear signals of a shifting market structure aligned with a strengthening economy. “We have a process to signal a recession…that is not it,” McCullough explains. “Paying attention to interest rates not only across the curve, inside of the shape of the curve—we’re long a steepener. I was adding to that on Friday too." Stay on top of the real macro signals by subscribing to "The Macro Show".

McCullough: No Recession—Rates Don’t Lie Markets can’t hide from the signals embedded in interest rates. 🔊 In this clip from The Macro Show, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough unpacks critical signals across the curve—each pointing to the same conclusion: the U.S. economy is accelerating. There’s no recession in sight. "We positioned for Quad 4 from February all the way to April. The Street started talking about a U.S. recession pending, which we did not," McCullough says. "Instead of entering a recession...credit risk continued to go down." That’s the key. While headlines warned of a slowdown, rates told a different story of acceleration, not recession. The yield curve steepened, credit spreads tightened—clear signals of a shifting market structure aligned with a strengthening economy. “We have a process to signal a recession…that is not it,” McCullough explains. “Paying attention to interest rates not only across the curve, inside of the shape of the curve—we’re long a steepener. I was adding to that on Friday too." Stay on top of the real macro signals by subscribing to "The Macro Show".

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How To Manage The Bitcoin Bounce 🔊 Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough breaks down $BTC's current setup, noting it has formed a higher low above the prior closing low of $62,800 and is holding just above $71,000, but warns this is not an ideal entry point. He explains that the buy zone is at the low end of the risk range near $63,000, while the top of the Risk Range™ is where caution is warranted. "It's a progression right? You cover your shorts first and then you continue to wait and watch. It's not like you just flip completely." Watch the full clip. Then watch today's full episode of The Macro Show free — along with our entire suite of research this week.

How To Manage The Bitcoin Bounce 🔊 Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough breaks down $BTC's current setup, noting it has formed a higher low above the prior closing low of $62,800 and is holding just above $71,000, but warns this is not an ideal entry point. He explains that the buy zone is at the low end of the risk range near $63,000, while the top of the Risk Range™ is where caution is warranted. "It's a progression right? You cover your shorts first and then you continue to wait and watch. It's not like you just flip completely." Watch the full clip. Then watch today's full episode of The Macro Show free — along with our entire suite of research this week.

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McCullough: "Inflation Should Be Your #1 Bet" 🔊 If you're new to investing, here’s something you won’t hear on CNBC: The smartest thing you can do right now is get long inflation. At Hedgeye, rising inflation is a key feature of Quad 3—an environment where inflation accelerates while economic growth slows. In this setup, traditional growth stocks often struggle while real assets and commodities outperform. This isn’t about guessing—it’s about stacking the odds in your favor. Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough put it best: “We’re counting cards. We’re watching blackjack odds. We’re just trying to up the probability… In a world where you really want certainty and you're not going to get it, you're going to get probability, which is different.” Inflation is here. If your portfolio isn’t already aligned, you’re betting against the highest-probability setup on the board. Subscribe to The Call @ Hedgeye to follow the data and stay aligned with the dominant Quad.

McCullough: "Inflation Should Be Your #1 Bet" 🔊 If you're new to investing, here’s something you won’t hear on CNBC: The smartest thing you can do right now is get long inflation. At Hedgeye, rising inflation is a key feature of Quad 3—an environment where inflation accelerates while economic growth slows. In this setup, traditional growth stocks often struggle while real assets and commodities outperform. This isn’t about guessing—it’s about stacking the odds in your favor. Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough put it best: “We’re counting cards. We’re watching blackjack odds. We’re just trying to up the probability… In a world where you really want certainty and you're not going to get it, you're going to get probability, which is different.” Inflation is here. If your portfolio isn’t already aligned, you’re betting against the highest-probability setup on the board. Subscribe to The Call @ Hedgeye to follow the data and stay aligned with the dominant Quad.

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McCullough: U.S. Dollar Weakness Could Trigger Market Correlation Risk 💰 Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough flagged a growing divide between the U.S. Dollar and the S&P 500, gold, and more in this important clip from Thursday’s edition of "The Macro Show." 🔊 With Hedgeye forecasts calling for a renewed rise in inflation starting in March, McCullough reminds investors to keep a close eye on how the dollar behaves in relation to markets and other assets. “If you thought we had inflation accelerating before with a strong dollar, wait until you see what happens when the dollar breaks down and continues to break down,” McCullough says. “It shouldn’t be unnoticed or unsaid that my signal got me out of the U.S. dollar weeks ago and got me into the [Japanese] Yen.” * * * * * Unlock Keith McCullough’s ultimate guide to investing with "Master The Market: A Hedge Fund Manager’s Guide to Process and Profit." Download this FREE 52-page eBook now 👉

McCullough: U.S. Dollar Weakness Could Trigger Market Correlation Risk 💰 Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough flagged a growing divide between the U.S. Dollar and the S&P 500, gold, and more in this important clip from Thursday’s edition of "The Macro Show." 🔊 With Hedgeye forecasts calling for a renewed rise in inflation starting in March, McCullough reminds investors to keep a close eye on how the dollar behaves in relation to markets and other assets. “If you thought we had inflation accelerating before with a strong dollar, wait until you see what happens when the dollar breaks down and continues to break down,” McCullough says. “It shouldn’t be unnoticed or unsaid that my signal got me out of the U.S. dollar weeks ago and got me into the [Japanese] Yen.” * * * * * Unlock Keith McCullough’s ultimate guide to investing with "Master The Market: A Hedge Fund Manager’s Guide to Process and Profit." Download this FREE 52-page eBook now 👉

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Gold vs. Bitcoin: Navigating The Risk Divergence 📈 A reminder that you don't need to wear a drawdown in Bitcoin (or any asset for that matter) just because someone with "laser eyes" says to buy and hold at all times. At Hedgeye we manage risk, and if you did that properly, you would have handled the 1700 basis points divergence between gold $GLD and Bitcoin $BTC in February. That difference was fueled by a #Quad4 environment - but one that could soon be reversing. "Bitcoin is trying to make up its mind. It's got 3 or 4 days left of that. So what do you do? You wait and you watch," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains in this clip from "The Macro Show." "Everything is a number. The question is, do you see it?" * * * * * You can download Keith's new, 52-page eBook "Master The Market: A Hedge Fund Manager's Guide to Process and Profit" for FREE here:

Gold vs. Bitcoin: Navigating The Risk Divergence 📈 A reminder that you don't need to wear a drawdown in Bitcoin (or any asset for that matter) just because someone with "laser eyes" says to buy and hold at all times. At Hedgeye we manage risk, and if you did that properly, you would have handled the 1700 basis points divergence between gold $GLD and Bitcoin $BTC in February. That difference was fueled by a #Quad4 environment - but one that could soon be reversing. "Bitcoin is trying to make up its mind. It's got 3 or 4 days left of that. So what do you do? You wait and you watch," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains in this clip from "The Macro Show." "Everything is a number. The question is, do you see it?" * * * * * You can download Keith's new, 52-page eBook "Master The Market: A Hedge Fund Manager's Guide to Process and Profit" for FREE here:

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107,530 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

McCullough: Fed’s Powell Remains ‘Full of Sh*t’ 🔊 "How about them eggs? You been paying a lot for eggs?" 🍳 asks Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in this clip from “The Macro Show” this morning. It's become blatantly obvious that the Fed is either ignorant or outright lying about inflation. "[Powell] is full of sh*t," McCullough says. "It's getting worse. It's more of a clown show than it's ever been. And we know what to do with it: front-run the next print." * * * * * If you're new to Hedgeye, make sure to download our Founder & CEO Keith McCullough's new eBook "Master The Market: A Hedge Fund Manager’s Guide to Process and Profit" It's free here:

McCullough: Fed’s Powell Remains ‘Full of Sht’ 🔊 "How about them eggs? You been paying a lot for eggs?" 🍳 asks Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in this clip from “The Macro Show” this morning. It's become blatantly obvious that the Fed is either ignorant or outright lying about inflation. "[Powell] is full of sht," McCullough says. "It's getting worse. It's more of a clown show than it's ever been. And we know what to do with it: front-run the next print." * * * * * If you're new to Hedgeye, make sure to download our Founder & CEO Keith McCullough's new eBook "Master The Market: A Hedge Fund Manager’s Guide to Process and Profit" It's free here:

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43,060 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Three Reasons To Buy Bitcoin (Right Now) In this clip from The Call, Macro & Digital Assets analyst Joshua Steiner provides the basis for why Hedgeye has pivoted to a Bullish position on Bitcoin. 🔊 Among the reasons is a shift to Monthly Quad 2 - when growth and inflation are accelerating at the same time. "The only quad that Bitcoin backtests really poorly in is Quad 4 [when growth and inflation slow together]," Steiner explains. "The best is in Quad 3 [when growth slows, but inflation accelerates]. And interestingly we have a May Quad 3 and a June Quad 2." Steiner also highlights Hedgeye’s current Bullish trend signal on Bitcoin, noting that the cryptocurrency is in a pivotal stage of its quadrennial halving cycle—a period that has historically marked some of its most explosive return phases. Make no mistake, Hedgeye views Bitcoin as just another asset to be bought and sold in the appropriate economic environments. We don't blindly hold it in perpetuity - we buy it when it's appropriate and short it when the data tells us to. Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough also summarized the three reasons to buy Bitcoin: "The [bullish] signal says buy it. The Quad says buy it. And the fundamental backdrop on the supply side that Steiner walked through says buy it. I don't have to spend the rest of my life telling you how smart I am about Bitcoin." ****** Subscribe to The Call for more daily investment insights 👇

Three Reasons To Buy Bitcoin (Right Now) In this clip from The Call, Macro & Digital Assets analyst Joshua Steiner provides the basis for why Hedgeye has pivoted to a Bullish position on Bitcoin. 🔊 Among the reasons is a shift to Monthly Quad 2 - when growth and inflation are accelerating at the same time. "The only quad that Bitcoin backtests really poorly in is Quad 4 [when growth and inflation slow together]," Steiner explains. "The best is in Quad 3 [when growth slows, but inflation accelerates]. And interestingly we have a May Quad 3 and a June Quad 2." Steiner also highlights Hedgeye’s current Bullish trend signal on Bitcoin, noting that the cryptocurrency is in a pivotal stage of its quadrennial halving cycle—a period that has historically marked some of its most explosive return phases. Make no mistake, Hedgeye views Bitcoin as just another asset to be bought and sold in the appropriate economic environments. We don't blindly hold it in perpetuity - we buy it when it's appropriate and short it when the data tells us to. Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough also summarized the three reasons to buy Bitcoin: "The [bullish] signal says buy it. The Quad says buy it. And the fundamental backdrop on the supply side that Steiner walked through says buy it. I don't have to spend the rest of my life telling you how smart I am about Bitcoin." ****** Subscribe to The Call for more daily investment insights 👇

Hedgeye

72,691 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

$The Market’s Most Bearish Signal Right Now ⚠️ A key Hedgeye Risk Range Signal™ just flipped: Nvidia $NVDA is now in a Bearish trend. 🔊 In this clip from "The Macro Show," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough breaks down why this shift matters. NVDA’s massive weighting in the market drives major moves—on Tuesday alone, it traded 254 million shares, accounting for nearly 12% of the S&P 500’s total upside. Yet, despite recent gains, NVDA remains in a Bearish trend. "In fractal math, we call these emergent properties—developments that set up the next pattern," McCullough explains. "What’s the next pattern? The stock market blowing up? Nvidia has already blown up." * * * * * * * Stay ahead of market shifts. Download Keith's new, 52-page eBook for FREE and see for yourself that there's a better way to protect and grow your money:$

The Market’s Most Bearish Signal Right Now ⚠️ A key Hedgeye Risk Range Signal™ just flipped: Nvidia $NVDA is now in a Bearish trend. 🔊 In this clip from "The Macro Show," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough breaks down why this shift matters. NVDA’s massive weighting in the market drives major moves—on Tuesday alone, it traded 254 million shares, accounting for nearly 12% of the S&P 500’s total upside. Yet, despite recent gains, NVDA remains in a Bearish trend. "In fractal math, we call these emergent properties—developments that set up the next pattern," McCullough explains. "What’s the next pattern? The stock market blowing up? Nvidia has already blown up." * * * * * * * Stay ahead of market shifts. Download Keith's new, 52-page eBook for FREE and see for yourself that there's a better way to protect and grow your money:

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McCullough: Watch Volatility $VIX (Very) Closely 📈 The $VIX is at a critical tipping point as markets (once again) bounce after a big down day. 🔊 Will it be able to finally close below 29 and exit what we affectionately call "The F*$k Bucket?" It has stubbornly stayed above that line every trading day since April 3rd, causing wild swings in market prices. In this clip from "The Macro Show," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains why he is watching for that level so closely. "The biggest question for me is, 'Is the VIX going to make its first lower-high of the cycle?' and 'Will be above its prior closing low?'" McCullough says. "If it happens, it's less bearish for the next trade. It doesn't mean I wasn't ragingly bearish a week ago. It just means that's what would make me less bearish a week later." If the VIX stays above 29, however, Tuesday's bounce could be yet another one to fade, McCullough says. Stay disciplined in volatile times by subscribing to "The Macro Show":

McCullough: Watch Volatility $VIX (Very) Closely 📈 The $VIX is at a critical tipping point as markets (once again) bounce after a big down day. 🔊 Will it be able to finally close below 29 and exit what we affectionately call "The F*$k Bucket?" It has stubbornly stayed above that line every trading day since April 3rd, causing wild swings in market prices. In this clip from "The Macro Show," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains why he is watching for that level so closely. "The biggest question for me is, 'Is the VIX going to make its first lower-high of the cycle?' and 'Will be above its prior closing low?'" McCullough says. "If it happens, it's less bearish for the next trade. It doesn't mean I wasn't ragingly bearish a week ago. It just means that's what would make me less bearish a week later." If the VIX stays above 29, however, Tuesday's bounce could be yet another one to fade, McCullough says. Stay disciplined in volatile times by subscribing to "The Macro Show":

Hedgeye

36,605 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

McCullough: 2025 Drawdown Is Nothing Compared to Historic Bear Markets ⚠️ Most investors underestimate bear markets. On Monday, Tier1 Alpha made that clear with a chart dating back to 1927, showing how long bear markets have lasted and how severe the drawdowns have been. 🔊 In this clip from "The Macro Show," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough lays out a critical warning: if the 2025 drawdown marks the beginning of a new bear market, "News flash: it just got started." “When you’re coming out of a bubble and into a bear market,” McCullough explains, "the next bull market is not the former bubble." Historically, bear markets don't last just three months — they unfold over time, often far longer and deeper than most investors expect. McCullough also highlights several names that are making our subscribers money by generating real alpha in the current market environment. * * * * * Unlock Keith McCullough’s proven risk management process with his free eBook, "Master The Market." Learn how to spot opportunities, avoid costly mistakes, and position your portfolio like a pro—download it now:

McCullough: 2025 Drawdown Is Nothing Compared to Historic Bear Markets ⚠️ Most investors underestimate bear markets. On Monday, Tier1 Alpha made that clear with a chart dating back to 1927, showing how long bear markets have lasted and how severe the drawdowns have been. 🔊 In this clip from "The Macro Show," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough lays out a critical warning: if the 2025 drawdown marks the beginning of a new bear market, "News flash: it just got started." “When you’re coming out of a bubble and into a bear market,” McCullough explains, "the next bull market is not the former bubble." Historically, bear markets don't last just three months — they unfold over time, often far longer and deeper than most investors expect. McCullough also highlights several names that are making our subscribers money by generating real alpha in the current market environment. * * * * * Unlock Keith McCullough’s proven risk management process with his free eBook, "Master The Market." Learn how to spot opportunities, avoid costly mistakes, and position your portfolio like a pro—download it now:

Hedgeye

33,275 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Jeff Currie explains the fundamental difference between commodity and equity market volatility. 🔊

Jeff Currie explains the fundamental difference between commodity and equity market volatility. 🔊

Hedgeye

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