正在加载视频...

视频加载失败

加载此视频时出现问题。这可能是由于临时网络问题，或视频可能不可用。

Howard Marks: “Buffett said, ‘I would rather have a lumpy 15% [return] than a smooth 12%.” “Risk is the probability of a negative outcome, of an undesirable outcome. It is not the volatility of the stream.”

Investment Wisdom

126,524 subscribers

24,203 次观看 • 7 天前 •via X (Twitter)

Anya Rossi• Live Now

Private livecam show

7 条评论

Investment Wisdom 的头像

Investment Wisdom7 天前

For more on one of the most misunderstood concepts in investing:

SnoopyTrades 的头像

SnoopyTrades7 天前

3% difference on a decade long timeframe makes a hell of a difference

Jim Osman 的头像

Jim Osman7 天前

Volatility and risk are not synonymous.

mokla 的头像

mokla6 天前

A jagged line can lead upward. A smooth one can lead off a cliff.

0963836678 的头像

09638366787 天前

I am getting more context from writing the test rules before selecting historical examples. @ArineitweJoe

Sean Patrick Griffin 的头像

Sean Patrick Griffin7 天前

Redefining risk as probability of loss rather than volatility cuts straight through decades of misapplied finance theory. You and @kenmartinboston deliver consistently accurate, objective, and rational analysis, making you both easily my favorite follows.

Louis A Stevens 的头像

Louis A Stevens6 天前

But mathematically the volatility of cash flows is risk More volatile cash flows = earnings yield required is higher = return = risk I see his point but cash flow volatility, which could be understood by proxy as share price volatility, does equate to risk in its truest sense

相关视频

I would not have expected the outcome of this recycling process…

I would not have expected the outcome of this recycling process…

Tansu Yegen

372,183 次观看 • 2 年前

"IF A DICTATORSHIP IS INEVITABLE, THEN I WOULD RATHER HAVE IT BE A DICTATORSHIP OF THE PROLETARIAT THAN ONE THAT IS DESIGNED AROUND THE NEEDS OF THE BOURGEOIS CLASS" - hasanabi 🔥

"IF A DICTATORSHIP IS INEVITABLE, THEN I WOULD RATHER HAVE IT BE A DICTATORSHIP OF THE PROLETARIAT THAN ONE THAT IS DESIGNED AROUND THE NEEDS OF THE BOURGEOIS CLASS" - hasanabi 🔥

adri ♡

1,619,288 次观看 • 5 个月前

Amy Adams says that signing on to #Nightbitch was a personal risk more than a professional risk: “I don’t think about the outcome [of the film] a lot of times going in.” | #ActorsOnActors

Amy Adams says that signing on to #Nightbitch was a personal risk more than a professional risk: “I don’t think about the outcome [of the film] a lot of times going in.” | #ActorsOnActors

Variety

25,268 次观看 • 1 年前

“The worst outcome is you don’t take advantage of it.” Nvidia’s Jensen Huang tells the countries at G20 and Secretary Howard Lutnick that the biggest risk with Artificial Intelligence is being left behind. A couple foreign leaders nodded in agreement.

“The worst outcome is you don’t take advantage of it.” Nvidia’s Jensen Huang tells the countries at G20 and Secretary Howard Lutnick that the biggest risk with Artificial Intelligence is being left behind. A couple foreign leaders nodded in agreement.

Brecca Stoll

24,782 次观看 • 13 天前

Elon Musk on why a superintelligent AI might keep humans around the way we keep chimps "Digital superintelligence is a real concern. I think it's more likely to be good than bad, but the probability of a bad outcome is not zero. The extreme case would be it wipes out humanity. Hopefully that's a low chance, but it's not zero" "Or maybe it doesn't wipe us out entirely. It's kind of like the chimps and the gorillas. There are small sections of them on Earth, and it's not like we're hunting them down, but they're contained in small areas. We don't prioritize them, and they're certainly not expanding" "So that could also be a not-great outcome, where it doesn't kill all the humans, it just keeps enough around, to study us out of curiosity, like Gorillas in the Mist. That would still not be a great outcome for humanity"

Elon Musk on why a superintelligent AI might keep humans around the way we keep chimps "Digital superintelligence is a real concern. I think it's more likely to be good than bad, but the probability of a bad outcome is not zero. The extreme case would be it wipes out humanity. Hopefully that's a low chance, but it's not zero" "Or maybe it doesn't wipe us out entirely. It's kind of like the chimps and the gorillas. There are small sections of them on Earth, and it's not like we're hunting them down, but they're contained in small areas. We don't prioritize them, and they're certainly not expanding" "So that could also be a not-great outcome, where it doesn't kill all the humans, it just keeps enough around, to study us out of curiosity, like Gorillas in the Mist. That would still not be a great outcome for humanity"

Jaynit

27,412 次观看 • 13 天前

My proposed strategy involves great respect for China. The future for China if a strategy of denial works is to be one of the world’s two superpowers; it would command great respect and influence. Is that not a better outcome than risking it all in a major war?

My proposed strategy involves great respect for China. The future for China if a strategy of denial works is to be one of the world’s two superpowers; it would command great respect and influence. Is that not a better outcome than risking it all in a major war?

Elbridge Colby

132,903 次观看 • 3 年前

A shot of substance for beauty, but is it worth the outcome and the repercussions?

A shot of substance for beauty, but is it worth the outcome and the repercussions?

Echo Corals

2,194,463 次观看 • 2 个月前

‘THIS IS NOT A CRIMINAL TRIAL’ Atty. Chel Diokno of the prosecution panel explains that the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte is not a criminal trial. “I think it is very clear that this is not a criminal trial. This is an impeachment trial where the outcome will determine whether the Vice President can continue to serve as vice president. And whether there would be any perpetual disqualification imposed on her,” he said during the 23rd day of the impeachment.

‘THIS IS NOT A CRIMINAL TRIAL’ Atty. Chel Diokno of the prosecution panel explains that the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte is not a criminal trial. “I think it is very clear that this is not a criminal trial. This is an impeachment trial where the outcome will determine whether the Vice President can continue to serve as vice president. And whether there would be any perpetual disqualification imposed on her,” he said during the 23rd day of the impeachment.

The Philippine Star

67,319 次观看 • 8 天前

"The concept that digital credit is dead because of the volatility we saw just could not be more wrong. Even with its volatility profile today, it is still better on a return relative to risk metric than basically any income opportunity that's out there." - Matt Cole

TFTC

13,157 次观看 • 2 个月前

🚨 JUST IN: Senate Leader John Thune says he will FORCE a vote on the SAVE America Act, but he can NOT guarantee it will pass because that needs 60 votes "That debate will happen. But like I said, I can guarantee the debate. I can guarantee a vote. I just can't guarantee an outcome." "There are a lot of optimistic views about what Democrats may or may not do. We all know, because we deal with them every day, that the Democrats are not all of a sudden going to decide that this is something they want to be for." "I think you have a lot of optimists out there, and I appreciate that, and a lot of passion and energy behind getting an outcome here." "But getting an outcome would require Democrat votes." "And, you know, we'll give them a chance. Like I said, they'll have that opportunity to vote one way or the other on this. But I would be very, very surprised."

🚨 JUST IN: Senate Leader John Thune says he will FORCE a vote on the SAVE America Act, but he can NOT guarantee it will pass because that needs 60 votes "That debate will happen. But like I said, I can guarantee the debate. I can guarantee a vote. I just can't guarantee an outcome." "There are a lot of optimistic views about what Democrats may or may not do. We all know, because we deal with them every day, that the Democrats are not all of a sudden going to decide that this is something they want to be for." "I think you have a lot of optimists out there, and I appreciate that, and a lot of passion and energy behind getting an outcome here." "But getting an outcome would require Democrat votes." "And, you know, we'll give them a chance. Like I said, they'll have that opportunity to vote one way or the other on this. But I would be very, very surprised."

Eric Daugherty

304,559 次观看 • 6 个月前

The market is teaching Dhagu hands on the stupidity of his car “donation adventure”. I little education and reasoning would have informed him of this outcome before the donations. It’s a foolhardy expedition.

The market is teaching Dhagu hands on the stupidity of his car “donation adventure”. I little education and reasoning would have informed him of this outcome before the donations. It’s a foolhardy expedition.

mmatigari

57,564 次观看 • 1 个月前

I told Howard Marks that I only invest in the index. He told me he did the research for one of his memos: - Yes, on average it has returned 10% a year for 100 years - But the annual return is almost never between 8% and 12% - "It kills it or it dies" - "The norm is not the average"

I told Howard Marks that I only invest in the index. He told me he did the research for one of his memos: - Yes, on average it has returned 10% a year for 100 years - But the annual return is almost never between 8% and 12% - "It kills it or it dies" - "The norm is not the average"

Sam Parr

122,533 次观看 • 2 个月前

The primary job of a president of the United States is to keep the country out of war. President Trump is somebody who would rather make a deal than have a war.

The primary job of a president of the United States is to keep the country out of war. President Trump is somebody who would rather make a deal than have a war.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr

665,637 次观看 • 1 年前

Warren Buffett: "Gambling is a tax on ignorance." "I find it kind of socially revolting when a government preys on the weaknesses of its citizenry rather than acts to serve them."

Warren Buffett: "Gambling is a tax on ignorance." "I find it kind of socially revolting when a government preys on the weaknesses of its citizenry rather than acts to serve them."

Kevin Carpenter

20,636 次观看 • 1 年前

Chariot CEO Adam Warmoth says the U.S. lost track of what actually matters: winning—but now that's changing. "There was this overcorrection where the process became the outcome." "I think what you've seen with the guidance from Secretary Hegseth, Secretary Driscoll, and General George is really refocusing on the outcome." "It's been a complete transformation in terms of the willingness to accept risk—the willingness to bring in new entrants." "I think that outcome focus is really what I would say is the central tenet of the transformation initiative." Chariot Defense Erin Price-Wright

Chariot CEO Adam Warmoth says the U.S. lost track of what actually matters: winning—but now that's changing. "There was this overcorrection where the process became the outcome." "I think what you've seen with the guidance from Secretary Hegseth, Secretary Driscoll, and General George is really refocusing on the outcome." "It's been a complete transformation in terms of the willingness to accept risk—the willingness to bring in new entrants." "I think that outcome focus is really what I would say is the central tenet of the transformation initiative." Chariot Defense Erin Price-Wright

a16z

14,521 次观看 • 5 个月前

Charles Kanjama on whether the DP can run for office or not: The court was not clear on it; it could have been clear by making a declaration that the outcome of the impeachment will not have any consequence. My interpretation is that because the court has found that there has been a violation of the right to a fair hearing, of necessity, the fruits of the impeachment cannot all be sustained. The finality in terms of bringing in a new DP has been sustained, but the other fruits of impeachment, which is to stop the DP from running again, cannot be sustained. The outcome is fairly confusing #CitizenMondayReport

Charles Kanjama on whether the DP can run for office or not: The court was not clear on it; it could have been clear by making a declaration that the outcome of the impeachment will not have any consequence. My interpretation is that because the court has found that there has been a violation of the right to a fair hearing, of necessity, the fruits of the impeachment cannot all be sustained. The finality in terms of bringing in a new DP has been sustained, but the other fruits of impeachment, which is to stop the DP from running again, cannot be sustained. The outcome is fairly confusing #CitizenMondayReport

Citizen TV Kenya

35,563 次观看 • 3 个月前