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Howard Marks has called every major bubble for 30 years and written it down before it popped - dot com. 2008. he saw them in his own memos now he is on record on AI, debt vs equity, and the next 40 years of investing 80-min and you will...

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Paul Tudor Jones predicted the 1987 crash and made $100 million shorting Black Monday. He is 71 years old and still trading. He just gave a new interview where he names the two things that will trigger the next 1987-scale event. Most traders are watching neither. Tudor Investment Corp, the fund he founded in 1980, has compounded at roughly 19 percent a year for 45 years. He is one of the four or five people alive who have done that continuously. The interview is with Patrick O'Shaughnessy. Jones's two warnings: One, the U.S. debt bubble. The government is running fiscal deficits at a pace historically reserved for wartime. He has seen bubbles before. He has never seen a debt structure that could not be reversed by a rate cut. This one, he says, is not reversible without pain that voters will not accept. It ends the same way every debt bubble in history has ended. Not this year. Not next. But it ends. Two, unregulated AI. He has been early on every major macro move for 45 years, and he says he has never been more concerned about a single technology in his career. He is not worried about AI taking jobs. He is worried about AI making mistakes at speeds no human can supervise. He has publicly called for regulation because he believes the alternative is a market event that makes 1987 look modest. His trading rule has not changed in five decades: "The most important rule of trading is to play great defense, not great offense." He does not try to be right. He tries not to lose. He sets stops tight. He cuts positions fast. He never averages down on a loser. His return record is not built on being clever. It is built on refusing to be dead. He also spent much of the interview talking about the Robin Hood Foundation, which he co-founded in 1988 to reduce poverty in New York. His advice for the next generation was to find significance outside of money. The last words of the interview are: kill them with kindness. A man who has shorted markets for 45 years ends every conversation with an argument for kindness. That contrast is the whole post. Greatness in markets is not a talent. It is a refusal. Refusal to be reckless. Refusal to be certain. Refusal to be indifferent. Tudor Jones has refused all three for half a century. The interview is free. The warnings are specific. Most people will scroll past both

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