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Robert Shiller called the dot-com bubble in 2000 - the market collapsed months later then he called the housing bubble years before 2008, while everyone laughed he won the Nobel Prize for explaining why markets aren't rational and he put his entire Yale course on financial markets online, for... show more

st1ne

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Ray Dalio on the AI bubble: "this is about 80% into a bubble - that 100% would have been 1929 and 2000" this is him - the Bridgewater founder - reading the AI melt-up against 500 years of bubbles "there's definitely a bubble in the markets" "isn't it amazing? we're talking about one stock for the stock market bubble" "General Electric and RCA - those companies went down 90%, not because of the economy - the bubble burst first because they needed cash" "the need for cash is always that which pricks the bubble" bookmark & watch today ↓

Ray Dalio on the AI bubble: "this is about 80% into a bubble - that 100% would have been 1929 and 2000" this is him - the Bridgewater founder - reading the AI melt-up against 500 years of bubbles "there's definitely a bubble in the markets" "isn't it amazing? we're talking about one stock for the stock market bubble" "General Electric and RCA - those companies went down 90%, not because of the economy - the bubble burst first because they needed cash" "the need for cash is always that which pricks the bubble" bookmark & watch today ↓

st1ne

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Howard Marks has called every major bubble for 30 years and written it down before it popped - dot com. 2008. he saw them in his own memos now he is on record on AI, debt vs equity, and the next 40 years of investing 80-min and you will hear how a legend prepares instead of predicts

Howard Marks has called every major bubble for 30 years and written it down before it popped - dot com. 2008. he saw them in his own memos now he is on record on AI, debt vs equity, and the next 40 years of investing 80-min and you will hear how a legend prepares instead of predicts

Loofy

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On February 5, 2018, a fund called XIV lost $2 billion in fifteen minutes. Retail owned it. A Yale Nobel laureate had explained the exact trade that killed it on YouTube seven years earlier. Nobody watched. Nobody warned them. Every option seller alive is still running a version of the same trade. The Nobel laureate is Robert Shiller. He won in 2013. His Yale course is ECON 252, Financial Markets. Lecture 17 is on options and runs 71 minutes. Shiller walks through the Black-Scholes derivation, then does something no other professor does. He puts implied volatility next to realized volatility on the same chart. The gap is obvious. The gap is the trade. Implied vol is what people pay for options. Realized vol is what actually happens. For 30 years the VIX has averaged 4 points higher than realized S&P vol. That gap is called the variance risk premium. It means the average put buyer pays a 4 vol overcharge above what the market actually does. Selling that overcharge is one of the most persistent edges in finance. It works for years. Until it does not. XIV was that trade in a ticker. It compounded 40 percent a year from 2011 to early 2018. Retail piled in. Assets crossed $2 billion. On February 5, 2018, spot VIX doubled in a single session. XIV lost 96 percent between 4pm and after-hours. Credit Suisse pulled the plug two weeks later. Holders got pennies. Shiller had drawn the tail seven years earlier. He named it. He told a room of Yale undergrads that anyone selling this without a hedge would eventually give it all back. The section is six minutes long. It is on YouTube. Shiller is 80. He still teaches at Yale. ECON 252 has been free since 2008. The lecture is free. The trade is real. The tail is what killed them.

On February 5, 2018, a fund called XIV lost $2 billion in fifteen minutes. Retail owned it. A Yale Nobel laureate had explained the exact trade that killed it on YouTube seven years earlier. Nobody watched. Nobody warned them. Every option seller alive is still running a version of the same trade. The Nobel laureate is Robert Shiller. He won in 2013. His Yale course is ECON 252, Financial Markets. Lecture 17 is on options and runs 71 minutes. Shiller walks through the Black-Scholes derivation, then does something no other professor does. He puts implied volatility next to realized volatility on the same chart. The gap is obvious. The gap is the trade. Implied vol is what people pay for options. Realized vol is what actually happens. For 30 years the VIX has averaged 4 points higher than realized S&P vol. That gap is called the variance risk premium. It means the average put buyer pays a 4 vol overcharge above what the market actually does. Selling that overcharge is one of the most persistent edges in finance. It works for years. Until it does not. XIV was that trade in a ticker. It compounded 40 percent a year from 2011 to early 2018. Retail piled in. Assets crossed $2 billion. On February 5, 2018, spot VIX doubled in a single session. XIV lost 96 percent between 4pm and after-hours. Credit Suisse pulled the plug two weeks later. Holders got pennies. Shiller had drawn the tail seven years earlier. He named it. He told a room of Yale undergrads that anyone selling this without a hedge would eventually give it all back. The section is six minutes long. It is on YouTube. Shiller is 80. He still teaches at Yale. ECON 252 has been free since 2008. The lecture is free. The trade is real. The tail is what killed them.

Veles

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The most overvalued market in 100 years. Retail is still buying like nothing is wrong. 100 out of 100 years have proved one thing: This pattern has never failed. And the S&P 500 is following it again. - Dot-com bubble (1999) - Housing bubble (2007) - AI bubble (2026) You are not ready for what's coming. Reminder: I’ve called every major market top and bottom for the last 15 years, including the tops in Gold and Silver, the collapse in Oil, the SpaceX drop, and Bitcoin’s crash. When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

The most overvalued market in 100 years. Retail is still buying like nothing is wrong. 100 out of 100 years have proved one thing: This pattern has never failed. And the S&P 500 is following it again. - Dot-com bubble (1999) - Housing bubble (2007) - AI bubble (2026) You are not ready for what's coming. Reminder: I’ve called every major market top and bottom for the last 15 years, including the tops in Gold and Silver, the collapse in Oil, the SpaceX drop, and Bitcoin’s crash. When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

Alex Mason 👁△

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The most overvalued market in 100 years. Retail is still buying like nothing is wrong. 100 YEARS. Samuel Benner predicted this in 1875. But this pattern has NEVER failed. 100 out of 100 years showed the same thing: The S&P 500 is already following it. → Dot-com bubble → Housing bubble → AI bubble And SpaceX is the final liquidity event before it all breaks. Keep in mind: I’ve called every major market top and bottom for over 10 YEARS. I was one of the only people who called the top in October, and I’ll do it again. That’s literally my job. If you still haven’t followed me, you’ll regret it.

The most overvalued market in 100 years. Retail is still buying like nothing is wrong. 100 YEARS. Samuel Benner predicted this in 1875. But this pattern has NEVER failed. 100 out of 100 years showed the same thing: The S&P 500 is already following it. → Dot-com bubble → Housing bubble → AI bubble And SpaceX is the final liquidity event before it all breaks. Keep in mind: I’ve called every major market top and bottom for over 10 YEARS. I was one of the only people who called the top in October, and I’ll do it again. That’s literally my job. If you still haven’t followed me, you’ll regret it.

DANNY

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Jeremy Grantham made $1 billion on every global crash for 40 years - now he says he's selling all his US stocks before the next bubble he asked 400 Wall Street analysts: "will the market crash?" - 99% said yes - then their firms told clients everything was fine "Goldman Sachs will NEVER tell you to get out - it's suicidal for their business - no help is coming - you are on your own" he predicted the dot-com crash, the 2008 crisis, and the Japanese bubble - all before they happened "AI is the biggest bubble in history - a 70% decline would not be unexpected " he gave away 95% of his billion - "I'm called a billionaire but only because they count the money I gave away " bookmark & watch!

Jeremy Grantham made $1 billion on every global crash for 40 years - now he says he's selling all his US stocks before the next bubble he asked 400 Wall Street analysts: "will the market crash?" - 99% said yes - then their firms told clients everything was fine "Goldman Sachs will NEVER tell you to get out - it's suicidal for their business - no help is coming - you are on your own" he predicted the dot-com crash, the 2008 crisis, and the Japanese bubble - all before they happened "AI is the biggest bubble in history - a 70% decline would not be unexpected " he gave away 95% of his billion - "I'm called a billionaire but only because they count the money I gave away " bookmark & watch!

bodila

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this pure masterclass from Yale professor explains investment banking, breaking down decades of studying financial crises and showing why pure investment banking was fundamentally destroyed in 2008 when Lehman Brothers collapsed after a massive bank run on repo markets, giants like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were forced to give up their pure investment banking status just to survive this is the tape of his famous Yale lecture breaking down the brutal reality of Wall Street: • 03:46 - how investment banking differs from commercial banking • 12:45 - the secret principles of Goldman Sachs that built an empire • 17:19 - how Glass-Steagall split Wall Street in 1933 • 28:06 - how the shadow banking repo run brought down Lehman Brothers • 35:46 - what a 100 hour work week looks like for a Wall Street analyst • 53:56 - transitioning from investment banking to Silicon Valley giant Facebook bookmark & watch this rare lecture for free

this pure masterclass from Yale professor explains investment banking, breaking down decades of studying financial crises and showing why pure investment banking was fundamentally destroyed in 2008 when Lehman Brothers collapsed after a massive bank run on repo markets, giants like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were forced to give up their pure investment banking status just to survive this is the tape of his famous Yale lecture breaking down the brutal reality of Wall Street: • 03:46 - how investment banking differs from commercial banking • 12:45 - the secret principles of Goldman Sachs that built an empire • 17:19 - how Glass-Steagall split Wall Street in 1933 • 28:06 - how the shadow banking repo run brought down Lehman Brothers • 35:46 - what a 100 hour work week looks like for a Wall Street analyst • 53:56 - transitioning from investment banking to Silicon Valley giant Facebook bookmark & watch this rare lecture for free

Beaver

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🇺🇸 MICHAEL BURRY IS CALLING THE NEXT US STOCK MARKET CRASH!!! When he warned us last time - the entire financial system collapsed Now read carefully: Real Estate (2005) - "The market is broken. I'm not wrong, the market is wrong" Then S&P crashed 57%. $725M profit for his investors AI Bubble (2026) - "Sell" And these aren't just words He just placed a $1,100,000,000 short against the AI bubble - $912M against Palantir - $187M against Nvidia. The same man Wall Street called crazy in 2007 is now positioned identically against AI. FOLLOW + NOTIFS ON

🇺🇸 MICHAEL BURRY IS CALLING THE NEXT US STOCK MARKET CRASH!!! When he warned us last time - the entire financial system collapsed Now read carefully: Real Estate (2005) - "The market is broken. I'm not wrong, the market is wrong" Then S&P crashed 57%. $725M profit for his investors AI Bubble (2026) - "Sell" And these aren't just words He just placed a $1,100,000,000 short against the AI bubble - $912M against Palantir - $187M against Nvidia. The same man Wall Street called crazy in 2007 is now positioned identically against AI. FOLLOW + NOTIFS ON

Crypto Rover

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WARREN BUFFETT LEFT THIS MARKET The last time he did this was 27 years ago Right before dot-com wiped out a generation of investors Back then he moved 50% of his assets to cash Right now he's holding $397 billion in cash - roughly 75% of his entire net worth And he's not just doing it quietly. He's telling us directly In 2000 during the dot-com bubble he said one thing: "Euphoria is the enemy" In 2026 during the AI bubble he's saying: "We've never had people in a more gambling mood than now" In 60 years he found exactly 5 moments worth acting on This is one of them FOLLOW + NOTIFS ON!

WARREN BUFFETT LEFT THIS MARKET The last time he did this was 27 years ago Right before dot-com wiped out a generation of investors Back then he moved 50% of his assets to cash Right now he's holding $397 billion in cash - roughly 75% of his entire net worth And he's not just doing it quietly. He's telling us directly In 2000 during the dot-com bubble he said one thing: "Euphoria is the enemy" In 2026 during the AI bubble he's saying: "We've never had people in a more gambling mood than now" In 60 years he found exactly 5 moments worth acting on This is one of them FOLLOW + NOTIFS ON!

bee🐝

16,376 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

A Yale professor recorded 26 hours of undergraduate financial theory in 2009 that quietly runs every mortgage desk, credit hedge fund, bank stress test, and repo market on earth. Yale charges $86,000 a year to sit in that classroom. He posted the entire course to YouTube for nothing. Millions have opened lecture one. Almost no retail trader has finished all twenty-six. His name is John Geanakoplos. He is the James Tobin Professor of Economics at Yale and co-founder of Ellington Capital Management, one of the largest mortgage hedge funds on Wall Street. He called the 2008 crash in a public lecture eight years early. The 75-minute clip in this video is one lecture from ECON 251 Financial Theory, filmed in the fall of 2009 at the MacMillan Center at Yale. The diagram on the board behind him looks trivial. It is the exact math that decides whether a bank stays solvent, whether a housing market corrects gently, and whether a mortgage fund survives a bad quarter. Geanakoplos covers the entire mathematical foundation of collateral, leverage, and financial crises in one semester. The Leverage Cycle. His original equation. Asset prices rise faster than fundamentals in booms and collapse harder in busts. Ellington priced every mortgage bond through 2008 with it. Collateral equilibrium. The price of an asset depends on who is allowed to borrow against it and how much. Not on discounted cash flow. Every housing bubble in history is a story about collateral. CDS and tranching. The math that turned $200 billion of subprime mortgages into $1.2 trillion of AAA bonds. Geanakoplos drew the diagram at Yale in 2005 and told his students the pool would default. Merrill, Citi, UBS, and Bear Stearns held it until it did. The natural buyers theory of price. A small number of optimists sets the price of every risky asset on earth. Remove their leverage and the market crashes faster than any change in fundamentals. By December 2007 Merrill had written down $9 billion, Citi $10 billion, UBS $13.7 billion. Total announced bank losses hit $52 billion. Geanakoplos had drawn the exact math for that outcome on the board two years earlier. Every mortgage desk on Wall Street pays entry-level analysts $250,000 to know this material before they walk in. Every senior MBS trader is paid $500,000 to remember it under pressure. Every central banker learns half of it and pretends the other half does not exist. "The most important variable in any market is not the interest rate. It is the collateral rate." That is a sentence Geanakoplos has repeated in every public lecture for twenty-five years. Bernanke ignored it in 2007. Every retail trader ignores it today. The lectures are free on Yale Open Courses. The Leverage Cycle paper is under thirty pages. The textbook chapters are free. The math is free. The willingness to sit through 26 hours of financial theory before opening a leveraged position, buying a mortgage ETF, or holding a bank stock through the next credit tightening is a much rarer commodity than the confidence to walk in without it.

A Yale professor recorded 26 hours of undergraduate financial theory in 2009 that quietly runs every mortgage desk, credit hedge fund, bank stress test, and repo market on earth. Yale charges $86,000 a year to sit in that classroom. He posted the entire course to YouTube for nothing. Millions have opened lecture one. Almost no retail trader has finished all twenty-six. His name is John Geanakoplos. He is the James Tobin Professor of Economics at Yale and co-founder of Ellington Capital Management, one of the largest mortgage hedge funds on Wall Street. He called the 2008 crash in a public lecture eight years early. The 75-minute clip in this video is one lecture from ECON 251 Financial Theory, filmed in the fall of 2009 at the MacMillan Center at Yale. The diagram on the board behind him looks trivial. It is the exact math that decides whether a bank stays solvent, whether a housing market corrects gently, and whether a mortgage fund survives a bad quarter. Geanakoplos covers the entire mathematical foundation of collateral, leverage, and financial crises in one semester. The Leverage Cycle. His original equation. Asset prices rise faster than fundamentals in booms and collapse harder in busts. Ellington priced every mortgage bond through 2008 with it. Collateral equilibrium. The price of an asset depends on who is allowed to borrow against it and how much. Not on discounted cash flow. Every housing bubble in history is a story about collateral. CDS and tranching. The math that turned $200 billion of subprime mortgages into $1.2 trillion of AAA bonds. Geanakoplos drew the diagram at Yale in 2005 and told his students the pool would default. Merrill, Citi, UBS, and Bear Stearns held it until it did. The natural buyers theory of price. A small number of optimists sets the price of every risky asset on earth. Remove their leverage and the market crashes faster than any change in fundamentals. By December 2007 Merrill had written down $9 billion, Citi $10 billion, UBS $13.7 billion. Total announced bank losses hit $52 billion. Geanakoplos had drawn the exact math for that outcome on the board two years earlier. Every mortgage desk on Wall Street pays entry-level analysts $250,000 to know this material before they walk in. Every senior MBS trader is paid $500,000 to remember it under pressure. Every central banker learns half of it and pretends the other half does not exist. "The most important variable in any market is not the interest rate. It is the collateral rate." That is a sentence Geanakoplos has repeated in every public lecture for twenty-five years. Bernanke ignored it in 2007. Every retail trader ignores it today. The lectures are free on Yale Open Courses. The Leverage Cycle paper is under thirty pages. The textbook chapters are free. The math is free. The willingness to sit through 26 hours of financial theory before opening a leveraged position, buying a mortgage ETF, or holding a bank stock through the next credit tightening is a much rarer commodity than the confidence to walk in without it.

Lumen

16,139 Aufrufe • vor 15 Tagen

RAY DALIO JUST SAID HE THINKS THE AI BUBBLE IS GOING TO POP On Bloomberg, he laid out exactly when, why, and how he sees it happening. He also compared the current market to two specific years: "We are right now rising closer to, not at, the same level in 2000 and the same level in 1929, a specific level where you say, oh no, here's the one that we really need to worry about." On all tech revolutions: "All great technology changes produce bubbles. And the reason they produce bubbles is because nobody can get it exactly right." On the mechanism that pops bubbles: "There's a bubble, and then there's the pricking of the bubble. The pricking of the bubble happens when there's a need for wealth to be sold to get the money." On the wealth gap that comes with it: "A very small percentage of the population is going to do unbelievably and a lot of people won't." On a political solution: "I'm not optimistic on us working together to solve." He says the technology is real. The prices and the debt are the problem.

RAY DALIO JUST SAID HE THINKS THE AI BUBBLE IS GOING TO POP On Bloomberg, he laid out exactly when, why, and how he sees it happening. He also compared the current market to two specific years: "We are right now rising closer to, not at, the same level in 2000 and the same level in 1929, a specific level where you say, oh no, here's the one that we really need to worry about." On all tech revolutions: "All great technology changes produce bubbles. And the reason they produce bubbles is because nobody can get it exactly right." On the mechanism that pops bubbles: "There's a bubble, and then there's the pricking of the bubble. The pricking of the bubble happens when there's a need for wealth to be sold to get the money." On the wealth gap that comes with it: "A very small percentage of the population is going to do unbelievably and a lot of people won't." On a political solution: "I'm not optimistic on us working together to solve." He says the technology is real. The prices and the debt are the problem.

WOLF

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MICHAEL BURRY IS CALLING THE NEXT CRASH When he warned us last time - the entire financial system collapsed Now read carefully: Real Estate (2005) - "The market is broken. I'm not wrong, the market is wrong" Then S&P crashed 57%. $725M profit for his investors AI Bubble (2026) - "Sell" And these aren't just words He just placed a $1,100,000,000 short against the AI bubble - $912M against Palantir - $187M against Nvidia. The same man Wall Street called crazy in 2007 is now positioned identically against AI If you can trust one guy in this game, it’s Michael Burry Think about it FOLLOW + NOTIFS ON

MICHAEL BURRY IS CALLING THE NEXT CRASH When he warned us last time - the entire financial system collapsed Now read carefully: Real Estate (2005) - "The market is broken. I'm not wrong, the market is wrong" Then S&P crashed 57%. $725M profit for his investors AI Bubble (2026) - "Sell" And these aren't just words He just placed a $1,100,000,000 short against the AI bubble - $912M against Palantir - $187M against Nvidia. The same man Wall Street called crazy in 2007 is now positioned identically against AI If you can trust one guy in this game, it’s Michael Burry Think about it FOLLOW + NOTIFS ON

bee🐝

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This is what peak bubble pricing looks like. Retail is still buying like nothing is wrong. But the chart and the numbers are already screaming. SpaceX valuation: $1.55T Walmart valuation: $1.05T SpaceX revenue: $18.7B Walmart revenue: $681B Read that again. SpaceX is worth $500B more than Walmart… while making 36x less revenue. But this pattern has NEVER failed. 100 out of 100 years showed the same thing: → Dot-com bubble → Housing bubble → AI bubble And SpaceX is the final liquidity event before it all breaks. But $SPCX won’t dump below $130, right? Keep in mind: I’ve called every major market top and bottom for over 10 YEARS. I was one of the only people who called the top in October, and I’ll do it again, that’s literally my job. If you still haven’t followed me, you’ll regret it.

This is what peak bubble pricing looks like. Retail is still buying like nothing is wrong. But the chart and the numbers are already screaming. SpaceX valuation: $1.55T Walmart valuation: $1.05T SpaceX revenue: $18.7B Walmart revenue: $681B Read that again. SpaceX is worth $500B more than Walmart… while making 36x less revenue. But this pattern has NEVER failed. 100 out of 100 years showed the same thing: → Dot-com bubble → Housing bubble → AI bubble And SpaceX is the final liquidity event before it all breaks. But $SPCX won’t dump below $130, right? Keep in mind: I’ve called every major market top and bottom for over 10 YEARS. I was one of the only people who called the top in October, and I’ll do it again, that’s literally my job. If you still haven’t followed me, you’ll regret it.

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58,407 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

The biggest IPO warning in 100 years. This pattern has NEVER failed. 1928 → Goldman Sachs 1971 → Intel 2000 → AT&T Wireless 2026 → Anthropic Each mega IPO arrived exactly on the peak of a major market bubble. Then the S&P 500 crashed. → 1929 crash: 86% → 1973 crash: 53% → 2000 crash: 51% → 2026 crash: **% And Anthropic is the final liquidity event before the AI bubble breaks. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

The biggest IPO warning in 100 years. This pattern has NEVER failed. 1928 → Goldman Sachs 1971 → Intel 2000 → AT&T Wireless 2026 → Anthropic Each mega IPO arrived exactly on the peak of a major market bubble. Then the S&P 500 crashed. → 1929 crash: 86% → 1973 crash: 53% → 2000 crash: 51% → 2026 crash: **% And Anthropic is the final liquidity event before the AI bubble breaks. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

Alex Mason 👁△

211,617 Aufrufe • vor 16 Tagen

A dead MIT professor accidentally destroyed the $20 billion executive coaching industry with one hour of lecture, and ten million people have already watched him do it. He filmed it once in January 2018 and died eighteen months later. Executive coaches charge fifteen thousand dollars a session to teach a third of what he covered in that one hour for free. His name was Patrick Winston. He ran the MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory from 1972 to 1997 and wrote the AI textbook every computer science major in the world read for thirty years. Every January for four decades, he gave a lecture called "How to Speak." His entire framework fits on a napkin. Do not read. Be in the image. Keep images simple. Eliminate clutter. Start with an empathetic connection. End with a punch line the audience can repeat over dinner. Never open with a joke. Never end with "thank you." That last rule alone has probably cost the executive coaching industry a hundred million dollars. "Your success in life will be determined largely by your ability to speak, your ability to write, and the quality of your ideas. In that order." That is the actual opening line of the lecture. Winston believed it strongly enough to spend fifty years teaching computer scientists how to talk. Founders spend $80,000 on an MBA and then hire a communications coach to teach them the same material Winston filmed once for free. Engineers write brilliant code and lose promotions to teammates who watched this lecture on the train. The lecture is free on MIT OpenCourseWare. The textbook is free on his page. Winston died in 2019. Almost none of the ten million viewers have actually implemented the four rules on the napkin. The napkin is free. The willingness to actually use it in your next meeting is the entire edge.

A dead MIT professor accidentally destroyed the $20 billion executive coaching industry with one hour of lecture, and ten million people have already watched him do it. He filmed it once in January 2018 and died eighteen months later. Executive coaches charge fifteen thousand dollars a session to teach a third of what he covered in that one hour for free. His name was Patrick Winston. He ran the MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory from 1972 to 1997 and wrote the AI textbook every computer science major in the world read for thirty years. Every January for four decades, he gave a lecture called "How to Speak." His entire framework fits on a napkin. Do not read. Be in the image. Keep images simple. Eliminate clutter. Start with an empathetic connection. End with a punch line the audience can repeat over dinner. Never open with a joke. Never end with "thank you." That last rule alone has probably cost the executive coaching industry a hundred million dollars. "Your success in life will be determined largely by your ability to speak, your ability to write, and the quality of your ideas. In that order." That is the actual opening line of the lecture. Winston believed it strongly enough to spend fifty years teaching computer scientists how to talk. Founders spend $80,000 on an MBA and then hire a communications coach to teach them the same material Winston filmed once for free. Engineers write brilliant code and lose promotions to teammates who watched this lecture on the train. The lecture is free on MIT OpenCourseWare. The textbook is free on his page. Winston died in 2019. Almost none of the ten million viewers have actually implemented the four rules on the napkin. The napkin is free. The willingness to actually use it in your next meeting is the entire edge.

Isa

537,402 Aufrufe • vor 20 Tagen

Six billion people cannot access three of the four ways to make money. The reason was diagrammed in a French history book in 1979 and drawn on a Yale chalkboard thirty years later. Wall Street built its entire marketing on pretending the diagram does not exist. The historian was Fernand Braudel. Three volumes. Thirty years of work. He called it the bell jar - the invisible container of laws, courts, and enforceable contracts under which capital, arbitrage, and insurance actually compound. He died in 1985. Nobody in finance picked up the book. A Yale professor named Douglas Rae taught the whole theorem in a forty-five-minute chalkboard lecture in 2009. He drew the bell jar. Inside: transparent property, courts that will jail your business partner, contracts that outlive their signers. Outside: everyone working for their next meal. Labor works everywhere. Capital, arbitrage, and insurance work in maybe forty countries on Earth. That is why a factory worker in Ohio compounds more wealth in five years than an equally skilled worker in Lagos compounds in twenty. Every emerging-market economist on Earth knows the theorem. Every VC pitching in Nairobi is quietly repricing Braudel every time a limited partner asks about jurisdiction risk. The lecture is called Braudel's Bell Jar. It has been on YouTube for fifteen years. Free. Twelve thousand people have watched it. Almost none of them are the ones outside the glass.

Six billion people cannot access three of the four ways to make money. The reason was diagrammed in a French history book in 1979 and drawn on a Yale chalkboard thirty years later. Wall Street built its entire marketing on pretending the diagram does not exist. The historian was Fernand Braudel. Three volumes. Thirty years of work. He called it the bell jar - the invisible container of laws, courts, and enforceable contracts under which capital, arbitrage, and insurance actually compound. He died in 1985. Nobody in finance picked up the book. A Yale professor named Douglas Rae taught the whole theorem in a forty-five-minute chalkboard lecture in 2009. He drew the bell jar. Inside: transparent property, courts that will jail your business partner, contracts that outlive their signers. Outside: everyone working for their next meal. Labor works everywhere. Capital, arbitrage, and insurance work in maybe forty countries on Earth. That is why a factory worker in Ohio compounds more wealth in five years than an equally skilled worker in Lagos compounds in twenty. Every emerging-market economist on Earth knows the theorem. Every VC pitching in Nairobi is quietly repricing Braudel every time a limited partner asks about jurisdiction risk. The lecture is called Braudel's Bell Jar. It has been on YouTube for fifteen years. Free. Twelve thousand people have watched it. Almost none of them are the ones outside the glass.

Isa

41,505 Aufrufe • vor 17 Tagen

Richard Feynman stood at a Cornell blackboard in 1964 and explained the problem every AI lab is fighting in 2026. The BBC filmed it. Almost nobody watches it. The lecture is about why nature only answers in mathematics. Every team forcing language models to reason is hitting the wall he mapped 62 years ago. He was 46. The Nobel Prize came 11 months later. The footage survived on film reels and now sits free on YouTube with fewer views than a keyboard unboxing. Watch the blackboard section near the middle. He takes 1 of Kepler's laws and rebuilds it from nothing, with notation a 12-year-old can follow. No slides. No jargon. 1 piece of chalk. An ML engineer I know paused it 4 times and made his whole team watch it before standup. You're 62 years late. The lecture is still free.

Richard Feynman stood at a Cornell blackboard in 1964 and explained the problem every AI lab is fighting in 2026. The BBC filmed it. Almost nobody watches it. The lecture is about why nature only answers in mathematics. Every team forcing language models to reason is hitting the wall he mapped 62 years ago. He was 46. The Nobel Prize came 11 months later. The footage survived on film reels and now sits free on YouTube with fewer views than a keyboard unboxing. Watch the blackboard section near the middle. He takes 1 of Kepler's laws and rebuilds it from nothing, with notation a 12-year-old can follow. No slides. No jargon. 1 piece of chalk. An ML engineer I know paused it 4 times and made his whole team watch it before standup. You're 62 years late. The lecture is still free.

Merlow

2,588,643 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

I warned you the S&P 500 crash is coming. Dot-com bubble → Today The final phase always looks the same. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

I warned you the S&P 500 crash is coming. Dot-com bubble → Today The final phase always looks the same. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

Alex Mason 👁△

95,247 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Nassim Taleb breaks down the Black-Scholes formula - and the story he tells starts with a forgotten man. Louis Bachelier priced options 73 years before Black-Scholes - and modeled Brownian motion 5 years before Einstein. it was 1900. a 30-year-old Frenchman defends a thesis under Henri Poincaré that quietly invents two fields at once: the math of random markets, and the first real formula for pricing options. his reward? the committee marks it down - "too much finance." no top grade, no patron, no career. he spends his life applying for jobs one rank below what his work deserved, and dies forgotten in 1946. then 1973: Black, Scholes & Merton publish the option-pricing formula. it reshapes Wall Street and wins the 1997 Nobel - for two of them (Black had died, so missed it). almost nobody remembers the Frenchman who got there first. and here's Taleb's twist: traders never actually use Black-Scholes. what the market runs on is a version of Bachelier's original. the Nobel, he argues, wasn't even for the pricing - it was for dressing it up to fit the economic theory of the day. ~15-min lecture, free. the man who built modern finance — and watched the credit go to everyone but him ↓

Nassim Taleb breaks down the Black-Scholes formula - and the story he tells starts with a forgotten man. Louis Bachelier priced options 73 years before Black-Scholes - and modeled Brownian motion 5 years before Einstein. it was 1900. a 30-year-old Frenchman defends a thesis under Henri Poincaré that quietly invents two fields at once: the math of random markets, and the first real formula for pricing options. his reward? the committee marks it down - "too much finance." no top grade, no patron, no career. he spends his life applying for jobs one rank below what his work deserved, and dies forgotten in 1946. then 1973: Black, Scholes & Merton publish the option-pricing formula. it reshapes Wall Street and wins the 1997 Nobel - for two of them (Black had died, so missed it). almost nobody remembers the Frenchman who got there first. and here's Taleb's twist: traders never actually use Black-Scholes. what the market runs on is a version of Bachelier's original. the Nobel, he argues, wasn't even for the pricing - it was for dressing it up to fit the economic theory of the day. ~15-min lecture, free. the man who built modern finance — and watched the credit go to everyone but him ↓

0xDipper

245,386 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

CEO of a trillion-dollar company sat in a Stanford classroom in 2011 and explained exactly how he built it. No PR team, no prepared remarks, no investors in the room. No business school has ever added the recording to a syllabus. His name is Jensen Huang. He co-founded NVIDIA in 1993 with $40,000. By 2011 the company was worth $9 billion. Today it is worth over $3 trillion. He walked into the Stanford ASES Summit and gave away the entire playbook to a room of fifty students for free. The lecture is about when to bet everything on one technology before the market knows it exists. He did it with GPUs. Then with CUDA. Then with AI infrastructure. Three bets, same logic, same company, three different industries. The uncomfortable part is what he says about risk. He almost went bankrupt twice. What he did both times is the opposite of what every MBA program teaches. Business schools charge $200K in tuition to teach frameworks he rejected before his company was worth a billion. Every founder podcast repeats the same five lessons. Almost none of them mention what Huang actually did when the company was ninety days from dying. That part is in the lecture. It has been free for fifteen years. Filmed by a student with a handheld camera. Audio cuts in and out. He gave away the playbook of the most valuable company on Earth to fifty people. Almost nobody watched it. One classroom. One camera. The full lecture is free. It is in the video.

CEO of a trillion-dollar company sat in a Stanford classroom in 2011 and explained exactly how he built it. No PR team, no prepared remarks, no investors in the room. No business school has ever added the recording to a syllabus. His name is Jensen Huang. He co-founded NVIDIA in 1993 with $40,000. By 2011 the company was worth $9 billion. Today it is worth over $3 trillion. He walked into the Stanford ASES Summit and gave away the entire playbook to a room of fifty students for free. The lecture is about when to bet everything on one technology before the market knows it exists. He did it with GPUs. Then with CUDA. Then with AI infrastructure. Three bets, same logic, same company, three different industries. The uncomfortable part is what he says about risk. He almost went bankrupt twice. What he did both times is the opposite of what every MBA program teaches. Business schools charge $200K in tuition to teach frameworks he rejected before his company was worth a billion. Every founder podcast repeats the same five lessons. Almost none of them mention what Huang actually did when the company was ninety days from dying. That part is in the lecture. It has been free for fifteen years. Filmed by a student with a handheld camera. Audio cuts in and out. He gave away the playbook of the most valuable company on Earth to fifty people. Almost nobody watched it. One classroom. One camera. The full lecture is free. It is in the video.

Tigerflow

74,298 Aufrufe • vor 24 Tagen