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Howard Marks has called every major bubble for 30 years and written it down before it popped - dot com. 2008. he saw them in his own memos now he is on record on AI, debt vs equity, and the next 40 years of investing 80-min and you will... show more

Loofy

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70,134 просмотров • 18 дней назад •via X (Twitter)

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Robert Shiller called the dot-com bubble in 2000 - the market collapsed months later then he called the housing bubble years before 2008, while everyone laughed he won the Nobel Prize for explaining why markets aren't rational and he put his entire Yale course on financial markets online, for free lecture one breaks down how risk, banking and bubbles actually work "irrational exuberance is the psychological basis of a speculative bubble" full Yale lecture. free. bookmark and watch it today

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I told Howard Marks that I only invest in the index. He told me he did the research for one of his memos: - Yes, on average it has returned 10% a year for 100 years - But the annual return is almost never between 8% and 12% - "It kills it or it dies" - "The norm is not the average"

I told Howard Marks that I only invest in the index. He told me he did the research for one of his memos: - Yes, on average it has returned 10% a year for 100 years - But the annual return is almost never between 8% and 12% - "It kills it or it dies" - "The norm is not the average"

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Jeremy Grantham made $1 billion on every global crash for 40 years - now he says he's selling all his US stocks before the next bubble he asked 400 Wall Street analysts: "will the market crash?" - 99% said yes - then their firms told clients everything was fine "Goldman Sachs will NEVER tell you to get out - it's suicidal for their business - no help is coming - you are on your own" he predicted the dot-com crash, the 2008 crisis, and the Japanese bubble - all before they happened "AI is the biggest bubble in history - a 70% decline would not be unexpected " he gave away 95% of his billion - "I'm called a billionaire but only because they count the money I gave away " bookmark & watch!

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The most overvalued market in 100 years. Retail is still buying like nothing is wrong. 100 YEARS. Samuel Benner predicted this in 1875. But this pattern has NEVER failed. 100 out of 100 years showed the same thing: The S&P 500 is already following it. → Dot-com bubble → Housing bubble → AI bubble And SpaceX is the final liquidity event before it all breaks. Keep in mind: I’ve called every major market top and bottom for over 10 YEARS. I was one of the only people who called the top in October, and I’ll do it again. That’s literally my job. If you still haven’t followed me, you’ll regret it.

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Howard Marks runs Oaktree, a $120 billion+ firm built on distressed debt, has been writing the memos Warren Buffett opens first for over thirty years, and just changed his mind on AI after a single conversation with Claude — we got into where the $10 bill nobody has picked up is hiding right now, why he picked debt over equity for an entire career, and why the herd is almost always wrong. Full episode drops soon. Oaktree

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1/ Howard Marks is the Co-Founder and the Co-Chairman of Oaktree Capital management. He is managing more than $200 billion and has a robust understanding of the market, he wrote a book called "Mastering The Market Cycle" in 2018. In 2021, he called the bubble before anyone 👇

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Paul Tudor Jones predicted the 1987 crash and made $100 million shorting Black Monday. He is 71 years old and still trading. He just gave a new interview where he names the two things that will trigger the next 1987-scale event. Most traders are watching neither. Tudor Investment Corp, the fund he founded in 1980, has compounded at roughly 19 percent a year for 45 years. He is one of the four or five people alive who have done that continuously. The interview is with Patrick O'Shaughnessy. Jones's two warnings: One, the U.S. debt bubble. The government is running fiscal deficits at a pace historically reserved for wartime. He has seen bubbles before. He has never seen a debt structure that could not be reversed by a rate cut. This one, he says, is not reversible without pain that voters will not accept. It ends the same way every debt bubble in history has ended. Not this year. Not next. But it ends. Two, unregulated AI. He has been early on every major macro move for 45 years, and he says he has never been more concerned about a single technology in his career. He is not worried about AI taking jobs. He is worried about AI making mistakes at speeds no human can supervise. He has publicly called for regulation because he believes the alternative is a market event that makes 1987 look modest. His trading rule has not changed in five decades: "The most important rule of trading is to play great defense, not great offense." He does not try to be right. He tries not to lose. He sets stops tight. He cuts positions fast. He never averages down on a loser. His return record is not built on being clever. It is built on refusing to be dead. He also spent much of the interview talking about the Robin Hood Foundation, which he co-founded in 1988 to reduce poverty in New York. His advice for the next generation was to find significance outside of money. The last words of the interview are: kill them with kindness. A man who has shorted markets for 45 years ends every conversation with an argument for kindness. That contrast is the whole post. Greatness in markets is not a talent. It is a refusal. Refusal to be reckless. Refusal to be certain. Refusal to be indifferent. Tudor Jones has refused all three for half a century. The interview is free. The warnings are specific. Most people will scroll past both

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