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I asked John McQueeney why ERCOT landed on 75 megawatts as the threshold for large-load review. His explanation was interesting: at that level, sudden changes in load meaningfully impact grid operations in the ERCOT control room.

14,187 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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$IREN: Fake vs Real Power Something that appears to be overlooked by the broader $IREN investor community, and especially by analysts, is the recent set of ERCOT (Texas grid) changes. For a long time, most data center developers could purchase random parcels of land, or secure land through option agreements, and then claim they had a “multi-GW” power pipeline in Texas. Somewhere in the footnotes, they would then clarify: *Pending grid studies, interconnection agreements, and ERCOT approvals.* It used to be difficult to distinguish between what was “real” power and what was, at best, aspirational. That was especially true for projects already halfway through the process, such as those that had partially completed grid studies but had not yet secured the remaining approvals. This led to a tsunami of “fake” power claims from operators across the industry, many of whom used inflated pipeline claims to support their valuation and strengthen their negotiating position. With the new ERCOT changes in place, that is no longer possible. The statewide grid operator has now introduced a new batching system that categorizes projects based on real, tangible progress and the steps they have taken, queuing them accordingly. As of today, it largely comes down to whether your project is in “batch 0, base load”. If you are not in this initial batch, you can effectively kiss your project goodbye until, at the very earliest, 2028. For the first time, counterparties (i.e., customers) and investors alike can distinguish between what is real and what is fake, or at best still many years away. This plays directly into $IREN's hands, as it is one of the few operators in the space that has always been straightforward about its power pipeline, only announcing sites that have gone through all the necessary steps and approval requirements. As such, $IREN's Sweetwater 1 & 2 sites are all but guaranteed to be in the first “base” batch, with additional unannounced sites also likely to be part of it. These new changes undoubtedly strengthen $IREN's negotiating position, as the pool of seemingly near term capacity has now shrunk by a meaningful margin.

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