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I have been working for the last 3 weeks on a comprehensive macro dashboard to track FED policy, macro, and liquidity. Perplexity Computer has done an amazing job at building what I had envisioned. Key Sections: 1. All the key economic data points 2. Policy signal gauge and Bottom...

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Ted Zhang

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14,251 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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The CRYPTO LIQUIDITY Engine Just RESTARTED After 3 Years. For the first time in years, the Fed’s balance sheet has begun to expand. The drain stopped and liquidity is quietly being added again. At the same time: • Inflation is slipping below 2% (Truflation) • PMI is still weak, but that’s a lagging signal • Crypto remains undervalued and oversold This doesn’t mean crypto pumps tomorrow. Monetary policy works with a lag. But historically, this exact setup is what precedes major risk-asset cycles.
12:34

The CRYPTO LIQUIDITY Engine Just RESTARTED After 3 Years. For the first time in years, the Fed’s balance sheet has begun to expand. The drain stopped and liquidity is quietly being added again. At the same time: • Inflation is slipping below 2% (Truflation) • PMI is still weak, but that’s a lagging signal • Crypto remains undervalued and oversold This doesn’t mean crypto pumps tomorrow. Monetary policy works with a lag. But historically, this exact setup is what precedes major risk-asset cycles.

Dan Gambardello

40,265 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

Watch This If You Want To Fully Understand Why The Fed NEEDS A 3% Inflation Target The politicized debate surrounding Fed independence in mainstream media = trees. Structural regime change at the Fed = forest. Focus on the forest, not the trees. This is not a matter of what is likely to occur with US monetary policy over the long term, but rather, what must occur for the economy and asset markets to function properly in a fiscal dominance regime. In our Fourth Turning-inspired view, it would be a policy mistake for the Trump administration to not try to catalyze regime change at the Fed. Watch these excerpts from our August 2, 2025 and August 9, 2025 Around the Horn webcasts to learn why.❤️
49:08

Watch This If You Want To Fully Understand Why The Fed NEEDS A 3% Inflation Target The politicized debate surrounding Fed independence in mainstream media = trees. Structural regime change at the Fed = forest. Focus on the forest, not the trees. This is not a matter of what is likely to occur with US monetary policy over the long term, but rather, what must occur for the economy and asset markets to function properly in a fiscal dominance regime. In our Fourth Turning-inspired view, it would be a policy mistake for the Trump administration to not try to catalyze regime change at the Fed. Watch these excerpts from our August 2, 2025 and August 9, 2025 Around the Horn webcasts to learn why.❤️

Darius Dale

58,242 görüntüleme • 11 ay önce

Buckle up because the Fed's on the verge of a massive pivot—ditching Quantitative Tightening (QT) and setting the stage for a liquidity flood just like the 2019 repo meltdown that kicked off QE. I'm super pumped about what this means for Bitcoin and altcoins exploding in November and December 2025. In this vid, I break down all the juicy catalysts, with a spotlight on that game-changing Fed shift. 02:32 Why Fed Liquidity matters for Crypto 08:49 When will the Fed end QT? 10:43 2019 Crisis ended QT and started QE 16:52 Signs of Bank liquidity stress like 2019 21:50 Fed has to inject liquidity NOW 24:27 Timeline of next 2 FOMC this year 26:37 No Bitcoin top signals have fired 27:57 Global M2 showing Bitcoin rally ahead 29:11 Gold shows Bitcoin rally ahead 32:23 Altseason begins with Liquidity Injection 35:38 Summary
39:01

Buckle up because the Fed's on the verge of a massive pivot—ditching Quantitative Tightening (QT) and setting the stage for a liquidity flood just like the 2019 repo meltdown that kicked off QE. I'm super pumped about what this means for Bitcoin and altcoins exploding in November and December 2025. In this vid, I break down all the juicy catalysts, with a spotlight on that game-changing Fed shift. 02:32 Why Fed Liquidity matters for Crypto 08:49 When will the Fed end QT? 10:43 2019 Crisis ended QT and started QE 16:52 Signs of Bank liquidity stress like 2019 21:50 Fed has to inject liquidity NOW 24:27 Timeline of next 2 FOMC this year 26:37 No Bitcoin top signals have fired 27:57 Global M2 showing Bitcoin rally ahead 29:11 Gold shows Bitcoin rally ahead 32:23 Altseason begins with Liquidity Injection 35:38 Summary

VirtualBacon

126,742 görüntüleme • 9 ay önce

🚨 THIS $BTC PATTERN HAS PREDICTED BOTTOM SINCE 2012... Idea is simple: “Every cycle bottom tends to form near the previous cycle’s ATH level” Market has already hit a key level - $60k - but this is still NOT cycle bottom... Bottoms form in stages, with multiple key liquidity sweeps along way Here’s roadmap for this year: 1. Drop below $60k + liquidity sweep 2. Bottom formation in $52k-$56k range 3. Gradual move up toward $90k This isn’t wishful thinking - it’s a pattern that has been working for over 14 years... On top of that, several major macro factors are also pointing toward an upcoming correction Don’t rush BTC accumulation - the best opportunities are still ahead... TURN ON NOTIFS, I’LL UPDATE SOON
1:10

🚨 THIS $BTC PATTERN HAS PREDICTED BOTTOM SINCE 2012... Idea is simple: “Every cycle bottom tends to form near the previous cycle’s ATH level” Market has already hit a key level - $60k - but this is still NOT cycle bottom... Bottoms form in stages, with multiple key liquidity sweeps along way Here’s roadmap for this year: 1. Drop below $60k + liquidity sweep 2. Bottom formation in $52k-$56k range 3. Gradual move up toward $90k This isn’t wishful thinking - it’s a pattern that has been working for over 14 years... On top of that, several major macro factors are also pointing toward an upcoming correction Don’t rush BTC accumulation - the best opportunities are still ahead... TURN ON NOTIFS, I’LL UPDATE SOON

Aralez 🐕

75,347 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

The rate cut isn’t the real story today. Everyone is staring at the Fed short term headlines which ultimately do not matter…meanwhile the actual macro signals are flashing. The Russell 2000 is breaking into all-time-high territory. That’s the chart that maps directly to business activity, PMI expansion, and liquidity rotations. And every time this happens near the end of a tightening cycle, it leads into a full-on altcoin expansion cycle. Add in a transitioning Fed, a pro-growth policy shift coming in 2026, QT ending, and Ethereum pressing a multi-year breakout…and the setup is epic. If you’re an altcoin holder, this is the moment to pay attention. Intro 00:00 The real FED news to watch 1:40 Russell 2000 4:55 Altcoins 7:20 Ethereum 9:05
12:20

The rate cut isn’t the real story today. Everyone is staring at the Fed short term headlines which ultimately do not matter…meanwhile the actual macro signals are flashing. The Russell 2000 is breaking into all-time-high territory. That’s the chart that maps directly to business activity, PMI expansion, and liquidity rotations. And every time this happens near the end of a tightening cycle, it leads into a full-on altcoin expansion cycle. Add in a transitioning Fed, a pro-growth policy shift coming in 2026, QT ending, and Ethereum pressing a multi-year breakout…and the setup is epic. If you’re an altcoin holder, this is the moment to pay attention. Intro 00:00 The real FED news to watch 1:40 Russell 2000 4:55 Altcoins 7:20 Ethereum 9:05

Dan Gambardello

65,156 görüntüleme • 8 ay önce

LIVE NOW - Trump, Tariffs & The Dollar’s Fate: Lyn Alden’s Macro Predictions for 2025 The 2024 U.S. election has reshaped the macro landscape, and few understand its implications better than Lyn Alden. She joins Bankless to discuss the impact of Trump’s policies on the dollar, Bitcoin, and global markets. From fiscal dominance and trade wars to the possibility of a new Plaza Accord and the role of Bitcoin in sovereign reserves, this episode covers the key macro trends that will shape 2025 and beyond. Will Trump’s economic agenda lead to a weaker dollar and lower interest rates? What does it mean for Bitcoin and risk assets? Tune in to find out. -------------- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 4:03 Trump’s Policies 15:52 Dollar Strength 24:11 Plaza Accord 2.0 29:59 Inflation 33:25 Tariffs 37:50 Interest Rates 47:32 Monetary Policy 56:06 Impact on Stocks & Crypto 59:33 Bitcoin as a Reserve Asset 1:06:32 Energy Policy 1:07:58 Closing Thoughts
1:09:55

LIVE NOW - Trump, Tariffs & The Dollar’s Fate: Lyn Alden’s Macro Predictions for 2025 The 2024 U.S. election has reshaped the macro landscape, and few understand its implications better than Lyn Alden. She joins Bankless to discuss the impact of Trump’s policies on the dollar, Bitcoin, and global markets. From fiscal dominance and trade wars to the possibility of a new Plaza Accord and the role of Bitcoin in sovereign reserves, this episode covers the key macro trends that will shape 2025 and beyond. Will Trump’s economic agenda lead to a weaker dollar and lower interest rates? What does it mean for Bitcoin and risk assets? Tune in to find out. -------------- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 4:03 Trump’s Policies 15:52 Dollar Strength 24:11 Plaza Accord 2.0 29:59 Inflation 33:25 Tariffs 37:50 Interest Rates 47:32 Monetary Policy 56:06 Impact on Stocks & Crypto 59:33 Bitcoin as a Reserve Asset 1:06:32 Energy Policy 1:07:58 Closing Thoughts

Bankless

182,581 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

Powell is set to wrap up his controversial eight-year term. Let’s break down his market-moving key decisions in just three minutes 👇 As the invisible puppet master behind the crypto market, every major call he’s made has swung Bitcoin’s price up and down. • 2018: A liquidity winter amid aggressive tightening After taking office in February, Powell stuck to monetary normalization and hiked rates four times within the year. His aggressive liquidity drain pushed capital costs higher, sending Bitcoin into a prolonged downtrend that bottomed out at $3,000 that December. • 2019: A rebound catalyst from policy pivot Faced with mounting growth headwinds, Powell put rate hikes on hold early in the year and delivered the first rate cut in a decade that July. Liquidity sentiment rebounded instantly, and Bitcoin front-ran the signal to hit a interim peak back in June. • 2020: Massive liquidity injection amid the pandemic crash Following the historic March 312 market meltdown, Powell cut rates to near zero and unleashed unlimited quantitative easing. The unprecedented flood of capital triggered a global asset shortage, directly fueling Bitcoin’s epic bull run into 2021. • 2021: The final rally fueled by lingering easy monetary policy Even as inflation heated up, Powell maintained a dovish stance throughout the year. This window of abundant liquidity backed Bitcoin’s landmark high in April, before notching a new all-time high ahead of the tapering announcement in November. • 2022: Aggressive tightening as an inflation hawk To correct its earlier misjudgment on inflation, the Fed kicked off its most aggressive rate hike cycle in decades starting in March. Global USD liquidity rushed back home, and Bitcoin crumbled under the brutal tightening pressure, hitting a cycle trough in November 2022. • 2023: Targeted liquidity backstop amid the banking crisis Amid the regional bank collapse chaos in March, Powell injected targeted liquidity via special Fed tools. This implicit market backstop restored risk sentiment, and Bitcoin showcased strong safe-haven properties to rally against the trend that month. • 2024: A new cycle ignited by the restart of rate cuts With the rate-cut cycle officially kicking off in September, the liquidity floodgates reopened once again. Strong easing expectations pushed Bitcoin to break its previous high as early as March, rallying all the way to its peak in October 2025. • 2026: Uncertainty lingers as his term draws to a close Powell chaired his final FOMC meeting this April, and his neutral stance heading into departure has left the market clouded with uncertainty. With his official exit due in May, capital turned cautious and retreated, triggering a predictable market pullback. Looking back over these eight years, every major surge and slump in Bitcoin has essentially moved in lockstep with Powell’s interest rate decisions. Now, this defining figure of the era is drawing the curtain on his tenure at the helm.
0:55

Powell is set to wrap up his controversial eight-year term. Let’s break down his market-moving key decisions in just three minutes 👇 As the invisible puppet master behind the crypto market, every major call he’s made has swung Bitcoin’s price up and down. • 2018: A liquidity winter amid aggressive tightening After taking office in February, Powell stuck to monetary normalization and hiked rates four times within the year. His aggressive liquidity drain pushed capital costs higher, sending Bitcoin into a prolonged downtrend that bottomed out at $3,000 that December. • 2019: A rebound catalyst from policy pivot Faced with mounting growth headwinds, Powell put rate hikes on hold early in the year and delivered the first rate cut in a decade that July. Liquidity sentiment rebounded instantly, and Bitcoin front-ran the signal to hit a interim peak back in June. • 2020: Massive liquidity injection amid the pandemic crash Following the historic March 312 market meltdown, Powell cut rates to near zero and unleashed unlimited quantitative easing. The unprecedented flood of capital triggered a global asset shortage, directly fueling Bitcoin’s epic bull run into 2021. • 2021: The final rally fueled by lingering easy monetary policy Even as inflation heated up, Powell maintained a dovish stance throughout the year. This window of abundant liquidity backed Bitcoin’s landmark high in April, before notching a new all-time high ahead of the tapering announcement in November. • 2022: Aggressive tightening as an inflation hawk To correct its earlier misjudgment on inflation, the Fed kicked off its most aggressive rate hike cycle in decades starting in March. Global USD liquidity rushed back home, and Bitcoin crumbled under the brutal tightening pressure, hitting a cycle trough in November 2022. • 2023: Targeted liquidity backstop amid the banking crisis Amid the regional bank collapse chaos in March, Powell injected targeted liquidity via special Fed tools. This implicit market backstop restored risk sentiment, and Bitcoin showcased strong safe-haven properties to rally against the trend that month. • 2024: A new cycle ignited by the restart of rate cuts With the rate-cut cycle officially kicking off in September, the liquidity floodgates reopened once again. Strong easing expectations pushed Bitcoin to break its previous high as early as March, rallying all the way to its peak in October 2025. • 2026: Uncertainty lingers as his term draws to a close Powell chaired his final FOMC meeting this April, and his neutral stance heading into departure has left the market clouded with uncertainty. With his official exit due in May, capital turned cautious and retreated, triggering a predictable market pullback. Looking back over these eight years, every major surge and slump in Bitcoin has essentially moved in lockstep with Powell’s interest rate decisions. Now, this defining figure of the era is drawing the curtain on his tenure at the helm.

Marcos Crypto

56,471 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

BREAKING: MACRO JUST FLIPPED. AND BITCOIN IS ALREADY PRICING IT IN. Tom Lee, live on CNBC: “Bitcoin no longer follows the halving. It follows the ISM. When ISM crosses above 50, crypto goes into supercycle mode.” The data is brutal: - Detrended Bitcoin tracks the business cycle almost perfectly - Every single time ISM > 50 explosive BTC & ETH moves - ISM is now bottoming at 48.2 and turning up fast Meanwhile: - Global liquidity is surging - The Fed is boxed in with more cuts coming - Fiscal flows are accelerating - Institutions are loading, retail is still scared Sequence locked: 1. Bitcoin breaks out first 2. Ethereum catches fire on liquidity 3. Altseason detonates when the tide overflows The 4-year halving cycle isn’t dead. It got absorbed into the global macro engine. If you’re still waiting for the “post-halving pump” in 2025… you’re trading the wrong calendar. The real trigger is ISM. And it’s flashing green. Position for the inversion. Or get left in the dust. Macro won. Crypto is now its highest-beta play.
1:33

BREAKING: MACRO JUST FLIPPED. AND BITCOIN IS ALREADY PRICING IT IN. Tom Lee, live on CNBC: “Bitcoin no longer follows the halving. It follows the ISM. When ISM crosses above 50, crypto goes into supercycle mode.” The data is brutal: - Detrended Bitcoin tracks the business cycle almost perfectly - Every single time ISM > 50 explosive BTC & ETH moves - ISM is now bottoming at 48.2 and turning up fast Meanwhile: - Global liquidity is surging - The Fed is boxed in with more cuts coming - Fiscal flows are accelerating - Institutions are loading, retail is still scared Sequence locked: 1. Bitcoin breaks out first 2. Ethereum catches fire on liquidity 3. Altseason detonates when the tide overflows The 4-year halving cycle isn’t dead. It got absorbed into the global macro engine. If you’re still waiting for the “post-halving pump” in 2025… you’re trading the wrong calendar. The real trigger is ISM. And it’s flashing green. Position for the inversion. Or get left in the dust. Macro won. Crypto is now its highest-beta play.

Merlijn The Trader

338,912 görüntüleme • 8 ay önce

The Fed Is Blowing Bubbles in Stocks, Gold, and Bitcoin… KISS Will Help You Sell Near the Top Enjoy this excerpt from our December 5, 2025, Macro Scouting Report webcast in which we accurately forecasted two of the most important structural changes to US monetary policy in our lifetimes: 1. The Fed will lean into the long-term outlook for productivity growth to implement increasingly — and perhaps unjustifiably — dovish monetary policy; and 2. The Fed will sacrifice Main Street to save Wall Street by restarting QE during a nationwide affordability crisis. The Fourth Turning took a big step forward today. If your portfolio is overweight Bonds relative to the 42 Macro 🇺🇸 KISS Model Portfolio's 30% target allocation for Gold and 10% target allocation for Bitcoin, it is likely your family will increasingly fall victim to the historic Cantillon effect that we’ve identified in our research as a key driver of the K-Shaped Economy Crisis (KEC). If you don’t know what “Cantillon effect” means, look it up now because it is increasingly the #1 thing standing between you and a comfortable retirement. 42 Macro is here to make sure you don’t slide down to or get trapped at the bottom of the “K.” Godspeed, my friends. —Skipper💜
10:10

The Fed Is Blowing Bubbles in Stocks, Gold, and Bitcoin… KISS Will Help You Sell Near the Top Enjoy this excerpt from our December 5, 2025, Macro Scouting Report webcast in which we accurately forecasted two of the most important structural changes to US monetary policy in our lifetimes: 1. The Fed will lean into the long-term outlook for productivity growth to implement increasingly — and perhaps unjustifiably — dovish monetary policy; and 2. The Fed will sacrifice Main Street to save Wall Street by restarting QE during a nationwide affordability crisis. The Fourth Turning took a big step forward today. If your portfolio is overweight Bonds relative to the 42 Macro 🇺🇸 KISS Model Portfolio's 30% target allocation for Gold and 10% target allocation for Bitcoin, it is likely your family will increasingly fall victim to the historic Cantillon effect that we’ve identified in our research as a key driver of the K-Shaped Economy Crisis (KEC). If you don’t know what “Cantillon effect” means, look it up now because it is increasingly the #1 thing standing between you and a comfortable retirement. 42 Macro is here to make sure you don’t slide down to or get trapped at the bottom of the “K.” Godspeed, my friends. —Skipper💜

Darius Dale

45,252 görüntüleme • 8 ay önce

After 1,000+ trades, this is the only setup that consistently works in any market condition. It's called liquidity sweep reversal—and it's the highest probability trading strategy I know. Before I show you what it is, here are the two things most traders get wrong with it: 1) They enter too early and get stopped out on the second sweep. 2) They try to predict the LAST sweep with certainty This is a sure-fire way to burn your money. Here's what to do instead: Step 1: Identify market control Look at structure. Higher highs and higher lows? Buyers are in control. We're only trading from demand zones. Step 2: Mark your liquidity zones Find equal lows. When retail sees a "double bottom," they go long because textbooks tell them to. Their stop losses sit right below those lows. Available liquidity for institutions to sweep. Step 3: Wait for the sweep Price drops, sweeps those stops, liquidates retail traders, then creates a sharp V-shaped reaction. This sweep breaks structure. Zoom into 1-hour timeframe - price was making lower highs and lows. After the sweep? Higher highs and higher lows. That sweep zone becomes your institutional demand zone. Step 4: Enter on mitigation Wait for price to pull back to the liquidity zone. Enter there. Stop below the zone. Target 2-3R. Remember: You'll NEVER predict with 100% certainty when it's the LAST liquidity sweep. Sometimes price sweeps 2-3 times before the real move. But that's trading—we trade probabilities, not certainties. Also, keep in mind: If you can't spot the liquidity, you ARE the liquidity. — This is just a breakdown of one of the trading strategies we covered in our 2-hour long cryptocurrency trading course. I also discussed the trend pullback strategy, how to trade breakout retests without getting stopped out on fake moves, and why understanding liquidity is the only way to avoid becoming exit liquidity. Just comment "COURSE" and I'll DM it to you immediately so you can watch it.
7:25

After 1,000+ trades, this is the only setup that consistently works in any market condition. It's called liquidity sweep reversal—and it's the highest probability trading strategy I know. Before I show you what it is, here are the two things most traders get wrong with it: 1) They enter too early and get stopped out on the second sweep. 2) They try to predict the LAST sweep with certainty This is a sure-fire way to burn your money. Here's what to do instead: Step 1: Identify market control Look at structure. Higher highs and higher lows? Buyers are in control. We're only trading from demand zones. Step 2: Mark your liquidity zones Find equal lows. When retail sees a "double bottom," they go long because textbooks tell them to. Their stop losses sit right below those lows. Available liquidity for institutions to sweep. Step 3: Wait for the sweep Price drops, sweeps those stops, liquidates retail traders, then creates a sharp V-shaped reaction. This sweep breaks structure. Zoom into 1-hour timeframe - price was making lower highs and lows. After the sweep? Higher highs and higher lows. That sweep zone becomes your institutional demand zone. Step 4: Enter on mitigation Wait for price to pull back to the liquidity zone. Enter there. Stop below the zone. Target 2-3R. Remember: You'll NEVER predict with 100% certainty when it's the LAST liquidity sweep. Sometimes price sweeps 2-3 times before the real move. But that's trading—we trade probabilities, not certainties. Also, keep in mind: If you can't spot the liquidity, you ARE the liquidity. — This is just a breakdown of one of the trading strategies we covered in our 2-hour long cryptocurrency trading course. I also discussed the trend pullback strategy, how to trade breakout retests without getting stopped out on fake moves, and why understanding liquidity is the only way to avoid becoming exit liquidity. Just comment "COURSE" and I'll DM it to you immediately so you can watch it.

The Trading Geek (Brad Goh)

54,129 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

KEVIN WARSH IS ANOTHER REASON BEHIND THIS MARKET CRASH. Yesterday’s sell off began when the probability of Kevin Warsh becoming the next Fed Chair surged sharply. , This reaction was due to Kevin Warsh’s policy record. Kevin Warsh is not a new name. He served on the Federal Reserve Board from 2006 to 2011 and played a role during the 2008 crisis. Since leaving the Fed, he has been one of the most vocal critics of how monetary policy was handled after that period. He has repeatedly argued that QE inflated asset prices, increased inequality, and mainly benefited financial markets rather than the real economy. He has described QE as a REVERSE ROBIN HOOD policy. He has also said the post 2020 inflation surge was a policy mistake, not an unavoidable outcome. That tells markets he is less tolerant of prolonged ultra easy policy. While Warsh now supports cutting interest rates, his framework is different from what markets are used to. He has opposed for rate cuts combined with balance sheet reduction, not open ended liquidity. This is a big issue. Markets are pricing the risk that rates may come down, but liquidity may not expand the way it has in previous cycles. That combination is not friendly for highly leveraged trades, stretched equity valuations, or liquidity driven rallies. In simple terms: • Trump wants lower rates • Warsh wants tighter balance sheet discipline • Markets fear rate cuts without QE The era of QE is no longer guaranteed. And markets are finally starting to price that reality.
1:49

KEVIN WARSH IS ANOTHER REASON BEHIND THIS MARKET CRASH. Yesterday’s sell off began when the probability of Kevin Warsh becoming the next Fed Chair surged sharply. , This reaction was due to Kevin Warsh’s policy record. Kevin Warsh is not a new name. He served on the Federal Reserve Board from 2006 to 2011 and played a role during the 2008 crisis. Since leaving the Fed, he has been one of the most vocal critics of how monetary policy was handled after that period. He has repeatedly argued that QE inflated asset prices, increased inequality, and mainly benefited financial markets rather than the real economy. He has described QE as a REVERSE ROBIN HOOD policy. He has also said the post 2020 inflation surge was a policy mistake, not an unavoidable outcome. That tells markets he is less tolerant of prolonged ultra easy policy. While Warsh now supports cutting interest rates, his framework is different from what markets are used to. He has opposed for rate cuts combined with balance sheet reduction, not open ended liquidity. This is a big issue. Markets are pricing the risk that rates may come down, but liquidity may not expand the way it has in previous cycles. That combination is not friendly for highly leveraged trades, stretched equity valuations, or liquidity driven rallies. In simple terms: • Trump wants lower rates • Warsh wants tighter balance sheet discipline • Markets fear rate cuts without QE The era of QE is no longer guaranteed. And markets are finally starting to price that reality.

Bull Theory

424,118 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

🚨 FED CHAIR KEVIN WARSH JUST MADE IT CLEAR: THE FIGHT AGAINST INFLATION IS NOT OVER. Key points from the FOMC press conference: • The Fed held rates in a 9–3 vote after a heated internal debate. • Warsh said inflation is still too high and the 2% target is non-negotiable. • The Fed is pulling back from forward guidance and will let markets react directly to incoming data. • Treasury yields have already tightened financial conditions, even without another rate hike. • One soft CPI report will not change policy. The Fed is focused on the broader trend. • The economy and labor market remain solid, while AI investment is driving a major surge in business spending. • A hold does not mean the Fed has paused. Warsh called it “watchful thinking.” • If inflation rises while employment stays strong, the Fed will be more inclined to tighten again. The message was simple: The Fed is not declaring victory, and rate hikes are still on the table.
1:58

🚨 FED CHAIR KEVIN WARSH JUST MADE IT CLEAR: THE FIGHT AGAINST INFLATION IS NOT OVER. Key points from the FOMC press conference: • The Fed held rates in a 9–3 vote after a heated internal debate. • Warsh said inflation is still too high and the 2% target is non-negotiable. • The Fed is pulling back from forward guidance and will let markets react directly to incoming data. • Treasury yields have already tightened financial conditions, even without another rate hike. • One soft CPI report will not change policy. The Fed is focused on the broader trend. • The economy and labor market remain solid, while AI investment is driving a major surge in business spending. • A hold does not mean the Fed has paused. Warsh called it “watchful thinking.” • If inflation rises while employment stays strong, the Fed will be more inclined to tighten again. The message was simple: The Fed is not declaring victory, and rate hikes are still on the table.

Crypto Rover

117,515 görüntüleme • 14 gün önce

LIVE NOW - The Real Crypto Cycle: What Happens When Global Liquidity Peaks Global liquidity veteran Michael Howell (CrossBorder Capital/ GLIndexes) joins to map out the “master variable” driving asset price: A 65-month global liquidity and debt refinancing cycle that underpins booms, busts, and the recent “everything bubble.” He breaks down: - the coming debt maturity wall, - rising repo stress, - the shift from Fed QE to “Treasury QE,” - and a new capital war between a US dollar stablecoin system and China’s gold-backed strategy. Plus, what all of this means for our bags and how to position as the current cycle rolls over. -------------- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 0:45 Global Liquidity: Theory of Everything? 14:49 Will it Go Up Forever? 24:50 Where Are We in The Cycle? 34:23 Asset Allocation 47:14 Can The Monetary Regime Break? 58:55 China Gold vs US Tech 1:04:29 Crypto & Gold 1:08:03 4-Year Cycles 1:12:40 AI Bubble 1:15:14 Global Liquidity Limitations 1:18:39 Next 3-6 Months 1:20:24 Assets to Hold 1:21:25 Closing & Disclaimers
1:22:33

LIVE NOW - The Real Crypto Cycle: What Happens When Global Liquidity Peaks Global liquidity veteran Michael Howell (CrossBorder Capital/ GLIndexes) joins to map out the “master variable” driving asset price: A 65-month global liquidity and debt refinancing cycle that underpins booms, busts, and the recent “everything bubble.” He breaks down: - the coming debt maturity wall, - rising repo stress, - the shift from Fed QE to “Treasury QE,” - and a new capital war between a US dollar stablecoin system and China’s gold-backed strategy. Plus, what all of this means for our bags and how to position as the current cycle rolls over. -------------- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 0:45 Global Liquidity: Theory of Everything? 14:49 Will it Go Up Forever? 24:50 Where Are We in The Cycle? 34:23 Asset Allocation 47:14 Can The Monetary Regime Break? 58:55 China Gold vs US Tech 1:04:29 Crypto & Gold 1:08:03 4-Year Cycles 1:12:40 AI Bubble 1:15:14 Global Liquidity Limitations 1:18:39 Next 3-6 Months 1:20:24 Assets to Hold 1:21:25 Closing & Disclaimers

Bankless

42,363 görüntüleme • 8 ay önce

You can never go wrong being early! Falcon Finance miles pilot season just went live and this is a simple guide to max out and earn the most points before project launch. First What is Falcon Miles? Falcon Miles are on-chain reward points that users earn by participating in the Falcon ecosystem. These points track key actions like swapping $USDf, holding it, staking or restaking sUSDf, providing liquidity, and more. How to accumulate falcon mile points fast ( video guide below for better understanding ) Step 1: Connect wallet to Step 2: Connect your wallet to merkl Use filter function search for “USDF” You will see 4 displayed opportunities “click on it” Click on provide liquidity to uniswap, then supply Step 3: swap some usdt into usdf ( if you total liquidity is 100$ swap $50 into $USDF ) then click on add liquidity, after then click on custom to choose your range, set the lower price to 0.995 and upper to 1.005 to ensure your LP stays active and within range. Direct link to uniswap usdt/usdf pool: ⚠️ connecting your wallet you used in providing liquidity to merkl gives you a 30% USDf apy bonus and for every 1$ liquidity you provide you earn 40 falcon points which means 100 liquid provided = 4000 daily + you earn fees for every $USDF swaps. Falcon miles point is still at its very early stages and you can max out before it gets so much attention on the timeline!
6:38

You can never go wrong being early! Falcon Finance miles pilot season just went live and this is a simple guide to max out and earn the most points before project launch. First What is Falcon Miles? Falcon Miles are on-chain reward points that users earn by participating in the Falcon ecosystem. These points track key actions like swapping $USDf, holding it, staking or restaking sUSDf, providing liquidity, and more. How to accumulate falcon mile points fast ( video guide below for better understanding ) Step 1: Connect wallet to Step 2: Connect your wallet to merkl Use filter function search for “USDF” You will see 4 displayed opportunities “click on it” Click on provide liquidity to uniswap, then supply Step 3: swap some usdt into usdf ( if you total liquidity is 100$ swap $50 into $USDF ) then click on add liquidity, after then click on custom to choose your range, set the lower price to 0.995 and upper to 1.005 to ensure your LP stays active and within range. Direct link to uniswap usdt/usdf pool: ⚠️ connecting your wallet you used in providing liquidity to merkl gives you a 30% USDf apy bonus and for every 1$ liquidity you provide you earn 40 falcon points which means 100 liquid provided = 4000 daily + you earn fees for every $USDF swaps. Falcon miles point is still at its very early stages and you can max out before it gets so much attention on the timeline!

Farmercist 👨‍🌾

54,599 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

The Bank of Japan Just Sent a Warning to the Entire Financial World by Raising Its Rate to a 31 Year High. Does this signal the end of the world’s cheapest money? Japan just raised interest rates to 1%, the highest level since 1995. That may sound small, but for Japan, it is a major macro turning point. After decades of zero rates, deflation, and ultra-cheap money, the Bank of Japan is now trying to normalize policy while facing a weak yen, rising imported inflation, higher energy costs, and one of the largest government debt burdens in the world. In this video, we discuss why Japan’s 1% rate hike matters far beyond Japan, from the yen carry trade and global liquidity to Japanese bonds, equities, inflation, and everyday life.
14:42

The Bank of Japan Just Sent a Warning to the Entire Financial World by Raising Its Rate to a 31 Year High. Does this signal the end of the world’s cheapest money? Japan just raised interest rates to 1%, the highest level since 1995. That may sound small, but for Japan, it is a major macro turning point. After decades of zero rates, deflation, and ultra-cheap money, the Bank of Japan is now trying to normalize policy while facing a weak yen, rising imported inflation, higher energy costs, and one of the largest government debt burdens in the world. In this video, we discuss why Japan’s 1% rate hike matters far beyond Japan, from the yen carry trade and global liquidity to Japanese bonds, equities, inflation, and everyday life.

YCC Macro

50,861 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

Here's my recent talk at Sui Basecamp in Dubai—Enjoy! 00:00 - PALvatar introduces the episode 01:04 - Reframing the macro fear narrative 01:26 - The Everything Code and liquidity 01:51 - Debt cycles and macro structure 02:10 - Demographics, debt, and GDP 02:38 - Aging populations and GDP drag 03:00 - Liquidity as the real driver 03:25 - Fed balance sheet to total liquidity 03:50 - M2 and asset correlations 04:23 - Why the rich get richer 04:47 - Global tax via currency debasement 05:21 - Crypto as a generational opportunity 05:48 - Banana zones and BTC decoupling 06:13 - Bitcoin log regression and upside 06:37 - 850K $BTC and market cycles 06:56 - Debasement and asset returns 07:19 - Liquidity vs. traditional returns 07:48 - Why tech and crypto matter 08:10 - Bitcoin vs Nasdaq performance 08:38 - Crypto: best asset in history 09:03 - The "Don’t F*ck This Up" thesis 09:38 - Liquidity and the macro setup 09:58 - Volatility is the price for returns 10:31 - Tariffs, rates, and market lag 11:01 - Economic surprises and liquidity 11:37 - 2017 tariffs and liquidity boost 12:01 - Twitter narratives vs macro truth 12:24 - What assets lead market cycles 12:51 - Inventory buildup and Q1 GDP 13:12 - Philly Fed confirms thesis 13:31 - ISM and forward outlook 14:00 - #Bitcoin and DeMark analysis 14:21 - Trump cycle deja vu 14:38 - My Bitcoin trading mistake 14:57 - Dollar strength and the Trump pivot 15:16 - Why the dollar isn’t over 15:36 - A weak dollar lifts global growth 15:56 - The 2017 breakout comparison 16:18 - One of the best setups ever 16:40 - Global M2 and debt cycle 17:03 - Basel IV and monetary creation 17:25 - Liquidity cycles repeat 17:45 - Debt refi cycles and patterns 18:06 - Liquidity leads Bitcoin 18:29 - Banana Zone phases 18:50 - Global M2 vs BTC chart 19:09 - Breakouts and corrections 19:29 - The voodoo chart: M2 + BTC 19:50 - One-way street ahead 20:08 - China, the dollar, and liquidity 20:31 - Central banks printing 20:50 - Liquidity surge from all angles 21:14 - Correlation with BTC and Nasdaq 21:39 - The Everything Code plays out 22:03 - Business cycle and crypto 22:32 - Bitcoin and ISM outlook 22:54 - Bitcoin at 450K? 23:21 - Altseason and business cycle 23:48 - Earnings, spending, and risk 24:16 - Altcoins = risk curve 24:40 - ISM >50 = big signal 25:06 - Everyone's fearful at the bottom 25:35 - Bearish sentiment at extremes 26:03 - Institutions still not in 26:29 - Indicators signal reversals 26:56 - Bitcoin corrections are normal 27:18 - The 2017 rollercoaster 27:42 - Technicals: #Solana & $SUI 28:00 - Sui charts breaking out 28:28 - Sui vs $SOL: faster horse 28:50 - $DEEP: top performer 29:16 - Ecosystem growth & excitement 29:45 - Market reacting to the vision 30:07 - Follow liquidity, not noise 30:27 - RSI and breakouts 30:47 - Liquidity patterns repeat 31:13 - We are in the Banana Zone 31:30 - No cycle top in sight 31:56 - This is just the beginning 32:19 - Banana Zone map 32:44 - Final advice: don’t mess this up 33:08 - Cycle could run into Q2 2026 33:39 - Stick to the program and DFTU
34:04

Here's my recent talk at Sui Basecamp in Dubai—Enjoy! 00:00 - PALvatar introduces the episode 01:04 - Reframing the macro fear narrative 01:26 - The Everything Code and liquidity 01:51 - Debt cycles and macro structure 02:10 - Demographics, debt, and GDP 02:38 - Aging populations and GDP drag 03:00 - Liquidity as the real driver 03:25 - Fed balance sheet to total liquidity 03:50 - M2 and asset correlations 04:23 - Why the rich get richer 04:47 - Global tax via currency debasement 05:21 - Crypto as a generational opportunity 05:48 - Banana zones and BTC decoupling 06:13 - Bitcoin log regression and upside 06:37 - 850K $BTC and market cycles 06:56 - Debasement and asset returns 07:19 - Liquidity vs. traditional returns 07:48 - Why tech and crypto matter 08:10 - Bitcoin vs Nasdaq performance 08:38 - Crypto: best asset in history 09:03 - The "Don’t F*ck This Up" thesis 09:38 - Liquidity and the macro setup 09:58 - Volatility is the price for returns 10:31 - Tariffs, rates, and market lag 11:01 - Economic surprises and liquidity 11:37 - 2017 tariffs and liquidity boost 12:01 - Twitter narratives vs macro truth 12:24 - What assets lead market cycles 12:51 - Inventory buildup and Q1 GDP 13:12 - Philly Fed confirms thesis 13:31 - ISM and forward outlook 14:00 - #Bitcoin and DeMark analysis 14:21 - Trump cycle deja vu 14:38 - My Bitcoin trading mistake 14:57 - Dollar strength and the Trump pivot 15:16 - Why the dollar isn’t over 15:36 - A weak dollar lifts global growth 15:56 - The 2017 breakout comparison 16:18 - One of the best setups ever 16:40 - Global M2 and debt cycle 17:03 - Basel IV and monetary creation 17:25 - Liquidity cycles repeat 17:45 - Debt refi cycles and patterns 18:06 - Liquidity leads Bitcoin 18:29 - Banana Zone phases 18:50 - Global M2 vs BTC chart 19:09 - Breakouts and corrections 19:29 - The voodoo chart: M2 + BTC 19:50 - One-way street ahead 20:08 - China, the dollar, and liquidity 20:31 - Central banks printing 20:50 - Liquidity surge from all angles 21:14 - Correlation with BTC and Nasdaq 21:39 - The Everything Code plays out 22:03 - Business cycle and crypto 22:32 - Bitcoin and ISM outlook 22:54 - Bitcoin at 450K? 23:21 - Altseason and business cycle 23:48 - Earnings, spending, and risk 24:16 - Altcoins = risk curve 24:40 - ISM >50 = big signal 25:06 - Everyone's fearful at the bottom 25:35 - Bearish sentiment at extremes 26:03 - Institutions still not in 26:29 - Indicators signal reversals 26:56 - Bitcoin corrections are normal 27:18 - The 2017 rollercoaster 27:42 - Technicals: #Solana & $SUI 28:00 - Sui charts breaking out 28:28 - Sui vs $SOL: faster horse 28:50 - $DEEP: top performer 29:16 - Ecosystem growth & excitement 29:45 - Market reacting to the vision 30:07 - Follow liquidity, not noise 30:27 - RSI and breakouts 30:47 - Liquidity patterns repeat 31:13 - We are in the Banana Zone 31:30 - No cycle top in sight 31:56 - This is just the beginning 32:19 - Banana Zone map 32:44 - Final advice: don’t mess this up 33:08 - Cycle could run into Q2 2026 33:39 - Stick to the program and DFTU

Raoul Pal

533,987 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

🚨 8 YEARS IN AND I'VE NEVER SEEN A SETUP LIKE THIS The amount of long liquidity stacked at $58K is unlike anything I've seen in nearly a decade of trading Once price hits that level the liquidation cascade will be brutal We're talking $2B in forced selling that could mark the actual cycle bottom This market has been purely liquidity-driven the entire cycle chopping from one imbalance to the next, and the pattern keeps repeating My view hasn't changed: $55K and $50K are coming, and $42K is absolutely on the table Both mathematically and historically this lines up perfectly Macro bottoms never feel like bottoms they come after the most aggressive liquidation event of the cycle, When nobody is expecting it and everyone has already given up That's when liquidity is fully exhausted and there's simply nothing left to sell I'm already buying and will keep DCA-ing at: $58K $55K $52K I bought BTC at $16K last cycle, called the exact $126K top 8 years of doing this and I believe the next few months are the most important opportunity of this entire cycle Follow and turn on notifications - the people who do tend not to regret it
0:44

🚨 8 YEARS IN AND I'VE NEVER SEEN A SETUP LIKE THIS The amount of long liquidity stacked at $58K is unlike anything I've seen in nearly a decade of trading Once price hits that level the liquidation cascade will be brutal We're talking $2B in forced selling that could mark the actual cycle bottom This market has been purely liquidity-driven the entire cycle chopping from one imbalance to the next, and the pattern keeps repeating My view hasn't changed: $55K and $50K are coming, and $42K is absolutely on the table Both mathematically and historically this lines up perfectly Macro bottoms never feel like bottoms they come after the most aggressive liquidation event of the cycle, When nobody is expecting it and everyone has already given up That's when liquidity is fully exhausted and there's simply nothing left to sell I'm already buying and will keep DCA-ing at: $58K $55K $52K I bought BTC at $16K last cycle, called the exact $126K top 8 years of doing this and I believe the next few months are the most important opportunity of this entire cycle Follow and turn on notifications - the people who do tend not to regret it

philarekt

29,116 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🚨 BITCOIN IS ABOUT TO REPEAT 2022 Everyone thinks the crash is over. But the real catalyst hasn’t even started yet. In 2022: Fed hiked 11 times. Bitcoin crashed 77%. Simple playbook: Higher rates → less liquidity → risk assets get destroyed. Now look at 2026. The same setup is loading again. The Fed is about to hike. Probability by December: 86%. Two weeks ago it was only 61%. Why? Inflation is back. PCE just hit 4.1% in May. First time above 4% in three years. And Bitcoin is already bleeding. Down 32% in 30 days. Read that again. Bitcoin is dumping BEFORE the Fed even starts hiking. Imagine what happens after they do. Same liquidity trap, same macro setup, same crowd making the same mistake. Most people are waiting for a bounce. I think they’re about to get trapped again. Keep in mind: Keep in mind: I’ve called every major market top and bottom for over 10 YEARS. I was one of the only people who called the top in October, and I’ll do it again, that’s literally my job. If you still haven’t followed me, you’ll regret it.
0:39

🚨 BITCOIN IS ABOUT TO REPEAT 2022 Everyone thinks the crash is over. But the real catalyst hasn’t even started yet. In 2022: Fed hiked 11 times. Bitcoin crashed 77%. Simple playbook: Higher rates → less liquidity → risk assets get destroyed. Now look at 2026. The same setup is loading again. The Fed is about to hike. Probability by December: 86%. Two weeks ago it was only 61%. Why? Inflation is back. PCE just hit 4.1% in May. First time above 4% in three years. And Bitcoin is already bleeding. Down 32% in 30 days. Read that again. Bitcoin is dumping BEFORE the Fed even starts hiking. Imagine what happens after they do. Same liquidity trap, same macro setup, same crowd making the same mistake. Most people are waiting for a bounce. I think they’re about to get trapped again. Keep in mind: Keep in mind: I’ve called every major market top and bottom for over 10 YEARS. I was one of the only people who called the top in October, and I’ll do it again, that’s literally my job. If you still haven’t followed me, you’ll regret it.

DANNY

113,214 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

every liquidity provider on Meteora only wants to know one thing. am i up? or am i down? introducing Portfolio, built for LPs to manage EVERYTHING. live for testing on Edge. we focused on 3 key principles when building this: Performance. Precision. and Clarity. here’s what you'll see on Edge: 1. Liquidity Card with your All-Time & Real-Time LP stats a) All-Time: Total Position Value, All-time Deposit, Fees Claimed, Claimable Fees b) Real-Time: Realized and Unrealized PnL, Total Deposits, Win Rate and Biggest Win 2. PnL Calendar, alongside a Bar Chart and Line Chart PnL view 3. Portfolio Sharing Card for you to flex to noobs test out the new portfolio and tell me what you think — always a DM away if you have any feedback!
0:46

every liquidity provider on Meteora only wants to know one thing. am i up? or am i down? introducing Portfolio, built for LPs to manage EVERYTHING. live for testing on Edge. we focused on 3 key principles when building this: Performance. Precision. and Clarity. here’s what you'll see on Edge: 1. Liquidity Card with your All-Time & Real-Time LP stats a) All-Time: Total Position Value, All-time Deposit, Fees Claimed, Claimable Fees b) Real-Time: Realized and Unrealized PnL, Total Deposits, Win Rate and Biggest Win 2. PnL Calendar, alongside a Bar Chart and Line Chart PnL view 3. Portfolio Sharing Card for you to flex to noobs test out the new portfolio and tell me what you think — always a DM away if you have any feedback!

dann

33,152 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

zkgm to $U all! as you may know, Union announced its BTCfi Flywheel Point Campaign a few days ago. this program rewards users with points for actions like bridging, providing liquidity through Union. basically, you bring value — Union gives you hourly points in return. the points increase depending on the LST you use, the bridging method, the pool you provided liquidity etc. so, i made a quick tutorial video to help you earn the maximum possible point multiplier in this campaign. but before we jump into the video, let’s take a look at what we’ll need: - $ETH on Ethereum ( $USDT, $USDC, or $DAI also work, but ETH is still needed for gas fees ) - $BABY on Babylon Genesis chain by the end of the video, we’ll have added liquidity to two different uniBTC/eBABY pools on Tower, which is a native DEX on Babylon Genesis. let’s get started. #UnionBTCfiFlywheel 00:00 - go to and make a deposit to receive uniBTC. 00:28 - head over to and bridge your uniBTC from Ethereum to Babylon Genesis using Union. this process can take 15–20 minutes depending on Ethereum finality. 01:32 - use to liquid stake your BABY and receive eBABY in return. 01:55 - add liquidity to the uniBTC/eBABY pools on Tower. since these pools currently have very low liquidity, you can only add in small amounts. that’s why i added liquidity in several smaller batches. by doing this, we followed the most optimal path to earn points. you can see the Union point multipliers next to each pool on the Tower interface. currently, there are 3 pools with a 2.5x multiplier, two of them are the ones we added liquidity to. the other one includes pumpBTC, feel free to try that as well. more liquidity for other Union-bridged BTC LSTs will be available over time.
3:15

zkgm to $U all! as you may know, Union announced its BTCfi Flywheel Point Campaign a few days ago. this program rewards users with points for actions like bridging, providing liquidity through Union. basically, you bring value — Union gives you hourly points in return. the points increase depending on the LST you use, the bridging method, the pool you provided liquidity etc. so, i made a quick tutorial video to help you earn the maximum possible point multiplier in this campaign. but before we jump into the video, let’s take a look at what we’ll need: - $ETH on Ethereum ( $USDT, $USDC, or $DAI also work, but ETH is still needed for gas fees ) - $BABY on Babylon Genesis chain by the end of the video, we’ll have added liquidity to two different uniBTC/eBABY pools on Tower, which is a native DEX on Babylon Genesis. let’s get started. #UnionBTCfiFlywheel 00:00 - go to and make a deposit to receive uniBTC. 00:28 - head over to and bridge your uniBTC from Ethereum to Babylon Genesis using Union. this process can take 15–20 minutes depending on Ethereum finality. 01:32 - use to liquid stake your BABY and receive eBABY in return. 01:55 - add liquidity to the uniBTC/eBABY pools on Tower. since these pools currently have very low liquidity, you can only add in small amounts. that’s why i added liquidity in several smaller batches. by doing this, we followed the most optimal path to earn points. you can see the Union point multipliers next to each pool on the Tower interface. currently, there are 3 pools with a 2.5x multiplier, two of them are the ones we added liquidity to. the other one includes pumpBTC, feel free to try that as well. more liquidity for other Union-bridged BTC LSTs will be available over time.

utku 🦥 | Huginn

23,748 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce