I think Sam Altman is understating the progress-understandably doesn’t want it to sound hyperbolic. But let me say it: In the next 2 years, there will be more progress than in the past 10-15 years & in the next 10 years, more than in the entire past century!

@sama This is hair raising for those ose of us who understand the tech and its implications. The capabilities jump from 2023 to today were astounding.

The recent US withdrawal from the @WHO adds a significant layer of complexity to the negotiations, with far-reaching implications for future of the pandemic agreement & global health governance. ✍️ Daniela Morich, Ava Greenup & @SuerieMoon. @GVAGrad

@sama That's what we're heading towards. And while you say we see more progress in the next 2 years than in the past 10-15 I think it'll be much, much more progress. Look at Deep Research. Connect it to an agentic AI finding and solving topics by itself -> unmeasurable progress.

@sama Even I may be understating:)

Isn't that the general rule of thumb though? There's a break through in X, and suddenly, X can progress faster. It's not the first time we've seen such rapid developments, and as they tend to compound, the speed/rate increases. But ... it's 2025. What as Generative AI from stolen content actually "fixed" so far? What diseases has it cured? What world shortage has it resolved? What scientific breakthrough has it provided? (Remembering - that "AI" has been used/developed/tested in medicine/science/engineering etc. for over a decade, ranging from clustering patients through to examining the genome sequence for diagnostics etc. - so it's current "uses" need to exceed those to be "profound")

@sama You just summarized what being “short-sighted” means. Good luck.

@sama Of course. Sam has been slow-walking and downplaying for ages, has to balance things on the razor’s edge between hope and fear.

@sama As of February 2025, I cannot “hire” an AI agent to replace a human doing even the most rudimentary back office job.

@sama The thing is, you can hire an agent to do a much more sophisticated job much quicker and cheaper, but due to Moravec’s paradox, low-level jobs are paradoxically more difficult to replace. However, that will change with AGI.

@sama I think it’s obvious for anyone who has been paying attention but many people are still going to have a big shock when they finally wake up.

@sama Only handful of people have been paying attention, I know because for years almost everyone I know thought I was absolutely insane! 😅