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IKEA deployed an AI chatbot named Billy to handle level-one customer service inquiries. It reportedly resolved around 57% of those engagements without human escalation. Most companies would have celebrated the labor savings and stopped there. Cost takeout right? But the more interesting move was to study the 43% of...

415,739 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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Elon Musk says AI will gut customer service — a $1 trillion industry — in months. Musk laid out the path AI takes to eat industry after industry. "If you have to integrate with the APIs of existing corporations — many of which don't even have an API, so you've got to make one, and you've got to wade through legacy software — that's extremely slow." Then he picked the industry that skips the slow part. "Take something as simple as customer service." Customer service is a human at a desktop, clicking through software the company already runs. "If AI can simply take whatever is given to the outsourced customer service company that they already use and do customer service using the apps that they already use, then you can make tremendous headway." No API. No integration. No engineering quarter to coordinate. Musk, on the size of the prize: "It's close to a trillion dollars all in, for customer service. And there's no barriers to entry." Customer service is 1% of the world economy. A trillion-dollar market sitting on top of software AI can already use. Then Musk drew the conclusion every CFO will eventually face: "You can immediately say, 'We'll outsource it for a fraction of the cost,' and there's no integration needed." The first wave will not be a smarter AI. It will be the same AI doing the same desktop work cheaper. Musk, looking at the digital human emulator about to ship: "You basically have access to trillions of dollars of revenue." Which $100M cost center in your business has zero integration moat? P.S. I made a playbook breaking down 100+ most powerful decision making mental models used by history's greatest thinkers. 5,000+ downloads. 113 five-star reviews. Grab a free copy here: If you're new here, follow GeniusThinking for content on the greatest minds in economics, psychology, and history. — Elon Musk ( Elon Musk ), CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, on Dwarkesh Patel's ( Dwarkesh Patel ) podcast

GeniusThinking

33,183 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Mark Zuckerberg just argued that AI will force companies to hire more people. Not fewer. Three and a half billion people use Meta every day. Not one of them has a phone number to call. Mark Zuckerberg: “It’s clearly just going to automate jobs and like all these jobs are going to go away… that has not really been how the history of technology has worked.” The entire media cycle runs the same story. AI replaces workers. Industries hollow out. The human becomes unnecessary. History has never once cooperated. Voice support for 3.5 billion daily users costs between ten and twenty billion dollars a year. The math made it untouchable. So Meta never built it. AI changed the math. Zuckerberg: “Let’s say the AI can handle 90 percent of that… you’ve gotten the cost of providing that service down to one 10th.” A service that could not exist becomes standard. Overnight. The moment it goes live, the edge cases arrive. The escalations. The problems no model can close alone. Every one needs a human on the other end. Zuckerberg: “I actually think we’re probably going to go hire more customer support people.” The AI did not kill the jobs. It unlocked a service so vast the company now needs people it never would have hired. When execution costs crater, companies do not pocket the savings. They go after problems they could never afford to touch. New markets. New products. New services that were economically impossible twelve months ago. Every one creates roles that did not exist before the machine arrived. The people terrified of automation are tracking the wrong number. They count the jobs that disappear. They have no framework for the ones that haven’t been invented yet.

Dustin

369,810 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

Morgan Stanley just raised their 2027 AI capex forecast to $1.1 trillion and that number still doesn't include SpaceX or a lot of the other AI companies (Save this). When you factor those in, the real 2027 figure is probably closer to $1.5 trillion and AI lab inference revenue combined is tracking toward $300 billion in 2027. On its surface that ratio sounds alarming, spending $1.5 trillion in capex to generate $300 billion in revenue. But the framing collapses the moment you examine two things the bears consistently ignore, gross margins and the revenue trajectory. Gross margins on inference revenue are running at 60 to 70 percent. That means the $300 billion in inference revenue generates $180 to $210 billion in gross profit and that number compounds rapidly as utilization scales on infrastructure that is already built and paid for. The Capex is not being deployed against today's revenue but rather being deployed against a revenue trajectory that has shown no signs of decelerating. To understand how aggressive that trajectory actually is, consider that Morgan Stanley's $1.1 trillion hyperscaler forecast is nearly double what analysts projected for the same year just twelve months ago And they described the demand as inelastic, meaning it is not slowing down regardless of rising costs, tighter financing conditions or geopolitical risk. The AI industry ended 2025 tracking well over $200 billion in combined inference revenue and the growth rate since then has continued to accelerate rather than flatten. Anthropic alone scaled from negligible revenue to a $30 billion annualized run rate in approximately 18 months while OpenAI is tracking toward $280 billion in annual revenue by 2030 from $13 billion in 2025. There is also a structural reality in the capex number that the bears never account for. Roughly 35 percent of total AI spending goes toward training, building the next model generation which is not revenue-generating in the current period. That means only about 65 percent of the $1.5 trillion in capex is actually deployed against the inference infrastructure that earns revenue today. When you apply the 60 to 70 percent gross margin to the revenue that sits on top of that 65 percent figure, the economics look substantially better than the headline capex to revenue ratio implies. Every CEO who has been closest to this buildout has consistently underestimated it and Jensen Huang projected $1 trillion in AI capex two years ago and was called delusional. Dario Amodei said in early 2026 that AI revenues would reach the low hundreds of billions by 2028 and trillions before 2030 and given where Anthropic's own revenue trajectory is today, he is likely revising those numbers upward. The pattern here is consistent, every time someone models the revenue ceiling, the actual number breaks through it faster than expected. Come join Milk Road Pro for our full breakdown, the real unit economics of the AI inference buildout, how the capex to revenue ratio evolves over the next three years, and our entire AI thesis! Link below!

Milk Road AI

21,141 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

THIS IS ABSOLUTELY RIDICULOUS. OpenAI and Anthropic are losing money on every dollar they make. OpenAI generated $20 billion in revenue in 2025 and is projected to lose $14 billion in the same year. Internal forecasts project cumulative losses hitting $44 billion by 2028. The company's own CFO warned executives in April 2026 that OpenAI might struggle to finance upcoming computing deals if revenue growth slows. Anthropic reached $4.3 billion in annualized revenue in April 2026 against $19 billion in total costs. It spends $3 to make $1, and is not expected to stop burning cash until 2027. Now look at what these two companies have committed to spend. OpenAI and Anthropic together have committed $1.05 trillion in cloud spending to Microsoft, Oracle, Google and Amazon, making up 43 to 54% of each provider's entire future revenue backlog. - Microsoft: $627B total backlog. OpenAI and Anthropic account for 49%. - Oracle: $553B total backlog. OpenAI alone accounts for 54%. - Google: $467.6B total backlog. Anthropic accounts for 43%. - Amazon: $464B total backlog. OpenAI and Anthropic account for 51%. The entire cloud industry's future revenue is a bet on two companies losing billions every quarter. Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon are collectively expected to spend $725 billion in capex in 2026, almost entirely on AI infrastructure. Combined hyperscaler capex from 2025 to 2027 is projected at $1.15 trillion, more than double what was spent from 2022 to 2024. What is the return on all of this? McKinsey's 2025 State of AI survey found that only a minority of companies reported AI meaningfully increased revenue or reduced costs. Enterprise generative AI spending grew from $1.7 billion in 2023 to $37 billion in 2025 and most CIOs still describe their initiatives as pilots without clear ROI metrics. Microsoft's AI business is running at a $37 billion annual revenue run rate with 123% year over year growth. That sounds impressive until you realize most of the capex funding is justified by expected future AI revenue rather than current AI profit. The internet burned money for years before it became the most profitable industry in history. But right now $1 trillion in committed cloud spend, $725 billion in annual capex, two loss-making customers making up half of every major cloud provider's revenue backlog, and the enterprises writing the checks cannot tell you if any of it is working.

Crypto Rover

58,862 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

I can’t forget the visualization below of the scale of a billion dollars. It is why I laugh when the number is carelessly thrown around by Nigerians. According to Mark Cuban, getting wealth at this scale is more about luck than skill or knowledge. You can’t get it linearly, only from exponential growth. The question we should ask if we seriously want to get wealth at this level is how many opportunities are open to an African to create exponential growth in any offering? In America and elsewhere, the market rewards people for creating that level of growth largely through valuation of future prospects and the probability of gaining more as exponential growth continues. We got a brief taste of those valuations in tech simply because foreign money decided to make some bets on entities that are still legally in their own country but operating in Africa. The way those companies are currently valued gives an idea of what they think about our markets but it is not always the reality on ground. The most objective measure is income and we are now slowly proving that previous valuations make sense. Getting to the point of creating individual billionaires is still far away unless we unlock further exponential growth opportunities. Speculation won’t create more billionaires. The government route has largely helped to create our current dollar billionaires by giving them advantage in areas where exponential demand was present. Those areas still have opportunities for growth. Someone sent me a deck and said he was trying to raise $10 Billion dollars, after laughing, I started to seriously look at the opportunities in the sector. The conclusion I reached with my cousin was that the only way to invest money and make money at that scale is to be in bed with the government. This is the bitter reality of Nigeria.

Osaretin Victor Asemota

77,890 просмотров • 11 месяцев назад

Greg Brockman, President of OpenAI, said there is not enough compute in the world to satisfy AI demand, and OpenAI itself cannot launch products it has already built because it cannot find the infrastructure to run them (Save this). OpenAI is spending $50 billion on compute in 2026 alone and it still is not enough. That is the setup but here is the trade. Nebius is one of the most asymmetric infrastructure plays in public markets right now, and most people have never heard of it. Q1 2026 revenue came in at $399 million, up 684% year over year, with AI cloud revenue specifically growing 841% in a single quarter. The company entered 2026 with an exit ARR of $1.25 billion and is targeting $7 to $9 billion by year end, a number that would make it one of the fastest revenue ramps in the history of public infrastructure companies. The contracted backlog sits at $50 billion anchored by a $17.4 billion agreement with Microsoft through 2031 and a $27 billion five-year deal with Meta. They are decade-scale infrastructure commitments from the two largest enterprise AI spenders on earth, signed before the demand curve has even reached its steepest point. Nvidia took a direct equity stake in Nebius, one of only two neoclouds it has invested in alongside CoreWeave. That relationship is not just financial but rather means Nebius gets preferential access to GPU allocation at a moment when every lab and every hyperscaler is competing for the same constrained supply. Contracted power capacity now exceeds 3.5 gigawatts, with expansion plans targeting 5 to 6 GW by mid-2029. And power is the other binding constraint in AI infrastructure, you cannot build a data center without it and Nebius has already secured the capacity that competitors are still fighting to acquire. At full ramp, analysts project revenue in the $15 to $25 billion range by 2029, against a current market cap the contracted backlog alone already dwarfs. Come join Milk Road Pro and get our full Nebius deep-dive, the exact price levels we are watching, how we are sizing the position against the backlog and power capacity timeline, and our full AI thesis. link below!

Milk Road AI

14,578 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

The selloff in Micron is one of the best buying opportunities you'll see this year (Save this). Sanjay Mehrotra just explained exactly why the old mental model for Micron, cyclical, commodity, mean reverting no longer applies. Every AI system, regardless of what device it runs on, requires more memory at higher performance to unlock its full potential. From data centers to smartphones to autonomous vehicles, memory is no longer a supporting actor but rather the critical bottleneck determining how fast AI can move. What makes this cycle structurally different starts with what happened in 2023. Certain customers drove industry pricing to one third of 2022 levels, forcing Micron into severe losses while still requiring $10 billion in investment just to stay competitive. Most companies in that situation cut spending and survive but Micron invested through the pain with the vision that the other side would be worth it. Those 2023 investments are now producing 84.9% gross margins, $41.46 billion in quarterly revenue, and Q4 guidance of $50 billion up from $11.3 billion in the same quarter just one year ago. That is what it looks like when a company bets on itself at exactly the right moment. Even Micron's own largest customers, Nvidia, Google, Amazon could not forecast the scale of AI memory demand that materialized. When the biggest technology companies in the world cannot project their own memory requirements, you are watching a structural transformation that nobody had models to predict, still in its early innings. Supply cannot respond quickly enough to close that gap. Mehrotra confirmed on air that tightness extends beyond 2027, new domestic fabs take years to bring online, and new HBM capacity which requires advanced 3D stacking that compounds in complexity at every generation won't meaningfully arrive until late 2028. There is no fast fix to a shortage of the most valuable memory on earth. The strategic customer agreements are the most underappreciated part of the entire story. Multi-year contracts with volume commitments and price floors now cover roughly 20% of DRAM volume and 30% of NAND volume, locking in a $100 billion contractual revenue base. The old Micron was at the mercy of customers who could crater prices overnight while the new Micron has contractual floors that make the 2023 scenario structurally impossible to repeat. Long Micron and make sure to follow me Melvin for more deep dives into AI and memory.

Melvin

130,037 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

SITUATION EXPLAINED: Dwarkesh argues compute could get 10X more expensive. • Anthropic's revenue has been 10X-ing year over year while lab compute only 3X's • Three ways that gap can close: margins rise, compute gets more expensive, or labs shift compute to inference • All three are already happening, Anthropic went from 40% margins in 2025 to possibly 80%+ this year • But labs don't want the third one, heavy inference spend signals AI progress has stalled and you're now a cloud provider • Spot compute prices are up 40%+ since February, and labs pay well above spot for security and scale • Google is reportedly paying SpaceXAI $900 million a month for 110K GPUs, roughly 2X spot • Key claim: if a human-level software engineer ran on an H100, that H100 should rent for $250K a year, 15X today's price • The 3X annual compute growth is 1.4X Moore's Law, 1.2X new fabs, and 1.8X from AI taking wafer allocation from other devices • The fab piece is bottlenecked by EUV tool supply through 2030, and the wafer piece hits a wall by end of 2027 • If compute stays scarce, new labs need far more capital just to reach the same starting line • Compute gets cheap again only once robots can turn sand and copper into computers, which is gated on robotics, not RSI sof 𓋹: "This is what I'm most concerned about, a lack of innovation, not within companies, but a lack of new companies that can actually do something substantially new, because of the scarcity of compute." Theo Jaffee: "The biggest companies in the world by revenue are Amazon and Walmart, at 743 billion and 725 billion. If Anthropic makes 100 billion by the end of this year, that puts them at Target. To go from Target to bigger than Walmart in a year would be very impressive."

MTS

10,617 просмотров • 4 дней назад