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I'm extremely concerned that Melissa is undergoing rapid intensification – or I suppose rapid reintensification – again as it approaches Cuba. The core/eye have RAPIDLY reorganized and the EEL – Enveloped Eyewall Lightning – signature has re-appeared. Cat-4 impact possible!

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Matthew Cappucci

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175,455 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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Well, this is crazy. Coming off of her historically violent, 185 MPH landfall in Jamaica, Hurricane Melissa has rapidly reorganized on her way to Cuba despite being heavily disrupted by mountainous terrain. The latest NHC advisory has her back at CATEGORY 4 status with winds of 130 MPH, as a furious explosion of lightning illuminates her western eyewall. What’s more, she is trending well east of her initial forecast cone and may now be threatening Santiago de Cuba, Cuba’s 2nd largest city.
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In case you're wondering what EXTREME rapid intensification looks like (55 mph/13 hours), behold. Erin is a maelstrom of meteorological mayhem as it puts on a pageant of power and elegance. It has rapidly intensified at three time the rate needed to qualify.
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Just leave this with you, as Paul said a turds eye view. Thanks to everyone for the messages of support, if i have missed anyone i do apologise it is not intentional, but my notifications have been red hot and it is time for shut eye as i'm in the river tomorrow. Thanks again
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The new cone from the NHC paints a terribly grim picture. It calls for Melissa to make landfall in Jamaica with winds of 155 MPH and potential gusts up to 190 MPH. And that’s if she only peaks as a low-end CAT 5. Right now, the storm has leveled off, but this actually isn’t good news. Jamaica radar indicates that Melissa is possibly about to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle or merger, which explains why the Hurricane’s pressure has risen a bit (953 mbar) despite an absolutely monstrous appearance on satellite. The problem, however, is that Melissa is still only moving at 3 mph and will have plenty of time to complete the cycle/merger; and given the favorability of the environment, it could wrap up smoothly. What’s worse, the core wind field may grow larger in size during the process. At this time, models and the NHC unfortunately remain locked on the worst case scenario prospect of Hurricane Melissa reaching Category 5 intensity.
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