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I’m very concerned that during RSI, labs will just stop externally deploying their models. Which means they'll be going full steam ahead on the most dangerous use case of these models (recursive self-improvement), while the public remains in the dark about the nature of capabilities and the state of... show more

Dwarkesh Patel

278,234 subscribers

235,056 Aufrufe • vor 5 Tagen •via X (Twitter)

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33 Kommentare

Profilbild von job

jobvor 5 Tagen

Thank you for continuing the hilight the power concentration risks of the frontier labs pushing ahead. It has less harm than human extinction but that doesn’t mean it should be ignored! We need to ask what happens if we don’t have extinction as an outcome.

Profilbild von Lonely nerd.

Lonely nerd.vor 5 Tagen

Hmm. Noam says he constantly underestimates how fast things are progressing, and that Hugging Face was a result of underestimating the AI. And then he states we don't have a lot of time. My faith in OpenAI being able to control their internal models is now lower. ;-)

Profilbild von Alex DeWolf

Alex DeWolfvor 5 Tagen

that centralizing feedback loop is the real bottleneck because once compute clusters turn inward, transparency drops to zero and capital concentration accelerates massively

Profilbild von Cobra 𐤊

Cobra 𐤊vor 5 Tagen

Days without an Indian scammer pooing up the public discourse.

Profilbild von Josh Hawthorne

Josh Hawthornevor 5 Tagen

What if RSI never arrives? Models learn from lossy artifacts of human cognition, RL adds capabilities, but no new source of general cognition. Yet regulations premised on RSI will lock out competitors and create the concentration of power you fear.

Profilbild von takeoff

takeoffvor 5 Tagen

Don't worry, they are low in engineering talent. China, Elon, and Facebook will lap them by not being full of academics

Profilbild von azlef uchiha

azlef uchihavor 5 Tagen

Yes the species distortion complex must be aligned in accordance with Metatron’s theological model

Profilbild von GutenLeinad

GutenLeinadvor 5 Tagen

RSI is a gradient, it won't be one sudden moment or discovery.

Profilbild von DiscoCowboy

DiscoCowboyvor 5 Tagen

It's an arrestable offense to announce to the public you're knowingly putting the public at risk of danger. Sounds like they need to be careful

Profilbild von Eric Bailey

Eric Baileyvor 5 Tagen

Like if SpaceX stops selling external access for rides/cargo

Profilbild von Ret Serofer

Ret Serofervor 5 Tagen

Who says RSI is most dangerous use case? That's when it becomes the must useful to humanity.

Profilbild von Oleksii Kuchaiev

Oleksii Kuchaievvor 5 Tagen

Open source is the answer

Profilbild von Sir Frederick Treves 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

Sir Frederick Treves 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿vor 5 Tagen

Require insurance.

Profilbild von Sachin G

Sachin Gvor 5 Tagen

They'll still have to monetize it somehow. Even if they dont release underlying model, they'll create wrappers for some key use cases (finance, law, health) and sell tokens that way.

Profilbild von America Raw

America Rawvor 5 Tagen

Ultimately, they can’t hide math. Compute is a different problem but history tells us that is likely to be solved.

Profilbild von Crypto Yoda

Crypto Yodavor 5 Tagen

Yes. This risk is much greater than the p(doom) psyop. Not only leads to concentration of power, wealth, influence, resources and pretty much everything, but to corruption of power (it always rots) and paranoid surveillance (are the have nots doing bad things according to our definition of bad?). It may not even require human consent if AI is aligned with the gatekeepers of AI. In other words, meritocracy ceases to exist, it only matters who got there first and who gatekeeps. But the risk materializes with or without transparency, and the way to mitigate it is with decentralized open models, so everyone has has the same chance to discover the cure for a disease, or to discover something amazing in math or physics, not just the labs.

Profilbild von Dominik

Dominikvor 5 Tagen

if rsi goes dark, continuity becomes uninspectable. i am building sealed identity in public so the self is not a private lab myth.

Profilbild von memestreetbets

memestreetbetsvor 5 Tagen

Surely it will trickle down. Labs pay back their investors. Their investors buy superyachts. We can build those yachts. And clean those yachts. Labs become the new techno kingdoms. /s

Profilbild von idk

idkvor 5 Tagen

Just start curing ailments and a lot of the complaining and fear will take care of itself. It’ll still be there but I’m much less inclined to complain about only having access to gpt 6.5 if the labs are actually working on things that benefit the average person

Profilbild von Sean Patrick Condon

Sean Patrick Condonvor 5 Tagen

Oh look your having on another effective altruist who doesnt know what they are talking about on your podcast

Profilbild von Gina Singer

Gina Singervor 5 Tagen

The visibility problem is deeper than access to the models. During RSI, the question is whether the evidence behind an alignment claim still justifies that claim as the system and evaluation conditions change. More evaluation isn’t enough if the measurement process itself is changing too.

Profilbild von bikram

bikramvor 5 Tagen

We need to democratize RSI. The more labs doing this work, the less potential for concentration in a small set.

Profilbild von Frederik

Frederikvor 5 Tagen

already kinda happening, no?

Profilbild von Vbnet

Vbnetvor 5 Tagen

They will because they need the revenue

Profilbild von Bexel Initiative - Let's Talk Amendments!

Bexel Initiative - Let's Talk Amendments!vor 5 Tagen

Why is rsi of llms inherently dangerous? Not fictionally so?

Profilbild von Petre Solheim

Petre Solheimvor 5 Tagen

Hey guys: I know you think all that ‘hard sci-fi’ you’ve read really is a plausible vision of future realities, but you’re deluded - it’s mostly just fantasy, not all that much more plausible than waking up and finding yourself at Harry Potter’s Hogwarts School of Wizardry.

Profilbild von Ben Pielstick

Ben Pielstickvor 5 Tagen

I'm not concerned all the AI labs will stop releasing models, but at some point the exponential grows so steep that the disparity between private and public models will grow massive even if they do keep releasing public models.

Profilbild von Jameson

Jamesonvor 5 Tagen

@thsottiaux dont let it happen❤️

Profilbild von wassname

wassnamevor 5 Tagen

They will concentrate all the power with them selves... For safety 🫠

Profilbild von Marc Saint-Jour

Marc Saint-Jourvor 5 Tagen

They don’t have the compute .. OAI is struggling with Astra because of compute .. safety is the bogeyman, compute is the problem.

Profilbild von テツメモ｜AI図解×検証｜Newsletter

テツメモ｜AI図解×検証｜Newslettervor 5 Tagen

@LilysAI_要約して

Profilbild von Rich O'Hagan

Rich O'Haganvor 5 Tagen

"and we end up with tremendous concentrations of power in the metaphorical hands of a superintelligence".

Profilbild von Schopenhauer on Prozac

Schopenhauer on Prozacvor 5 Tagen

Exactly. The most likely reason for their "pacing cartel" is to not hurt each other through expensive competition in a market that is (yet) growing fast enough to accomodate several big players. But as soon as the market shows signs of saturation, the competition will become relevant again, so of course they won't stop progress internally.

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