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In 1968, Paul Ehrlich predicted that unchecked population growth would cause mass starvation. Instead, the global death rate fell by over a third, and famines disappeared outside of war zones. How did he get it so wrong? In short, he ignored humanity's ability to innovate.

Human Progress

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one year later and i’m still not over how he fell to his knees, how he covered his face cause he was so overwhelmed, how he tried to capture every single detail of the audience with tears in his eyes, and how he did not want to leave that stage.

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Paul Ehrlich: the most damaging intellectual of the late 20th century Few individuals have done more to distort Western thinking on civilization, progress, and human flourishing than Paul Ehrlich. His central thesis was that the Earth was dangerously overpopulated, and that continued population growth would make famine, plague, and war not only inevitable but imminent. In 1970, he issued a string of apocalyptic predictions (none of which came true): >Starvation would surge worldwide and become the new normal >The United States faced imminent famine driven by climate and weather shifts >A global plague would devastate humanity >Rising population and pollution would dramatically increase the odds of thermonuclear war >Basic arithmetic showed the world could not possibly reach 7 billion people by 2000 >Society would pass the point of no return after 1972 Every major forecast collapsed. Global population soared past 7 billion, yet per-capita food production rose, extreme poverty plummeted, and life expectancy increased. Yet the overpopulation myth he popularized never died. That is the real tragedy. Because the idea survived, governments and institutions continue to shape policy around it, often with coercive population control measures, anti-natalist cultural messaging, and hostility to human flourishing. Policies built on false premises rarely end well. They tend to produce exactly the kind of stagnation and misery their architects claimed to prevent. Paul Ehrlich belongs in the dustbin of history. The sooner his intellectual legacy is discarded, the better.

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