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In 2005, the highest expected-value career move a finance grad could make was taking the Lehman Brothers offer. A hedge fund manager on why the smartest people make the number one career mistake: Sinan Xin joined Lehman's tech M&A group out of Penn in '06 — now runs a... global EM tech long/short fund. Sinan Xin explains: "The number one mistake people make at this stage is going somewhere for what seems like a rational economic outcome." "The reason people do that is because these are intelligent people — making what seems to be a very reasonable and attractive economic choice." "But five, ten years down the line, you're surrounded by people who made the same choice you did — for a different and potentially better reason." "That's when you find you're not as competitive. You're not as passionate about generating alpha on a large cap US portfolio. You're not the expert on squeezing a millionth of a millisecond out of a trade." "Making a decision based on passion rather than pure expected value is more alpha down the line — because the fidelity in calculating those expected values is quite low." "In 2005, the expected value of taking a job offer from Lehman Brothers was quite high. The outcomes were different." "People place too much faith in their own ability to assign correct probabilities to uncertain outcomes."show more

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.Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸's recipe for a great founder: two traits and one choice. The traits: intellect and energy. The choice: courage. Courage is pain tolerance. “A huge amount of what people have to do is just get used to getting punched. And the reason people don't understand this is because when you're a founder, you cannot let on that this is happening because it will cause people to think that you're weak, and they'll lose faith in you. So you have to pretend that you're having a great time when you're dying inside.”

.Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸's recipe for a great founder: two traits and one choice. The traits: intellect and energy. The choice: courage. Courage is pain tolerance. “A huge amount of what people have to do is just get used to getting punched. And the reason people don't understand this is because when you're a founder, you cannot let on that this is happening because it will cause people to think that you're weak, and they'll lose faith in you. So you have to pretend that you're having a great time when you're dying inside.”

a16z

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🚨 Asmongold explains to Twitch Streamer Frogan why her streaming career has collapsed dropping as low as 70 viewers. "The reason she was successful is because people used her as a token minority." "This is the reason people don't like you. You're a liar. You're a liar who misrepresents what happens. That's the main problem that you have." "In the Quran, it doesn't tell you to lie. Why are you saying things that are not true?"

🚨 Asmongold explains to Twitch Streamer Frogan why her streaming career has collapsed dropping as low as 70 viewers. "The reason she was successful is because people used her as a token minority." "This is the reason people don't like you. You're a liar. You're a liar who misrepresents what happens. That's the main problem that you have." "In the Quran, it doesn't tell you to lie. Why are you saying things that are not true?"

Rekapz

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Mark Zuckerberg on why the people you surround yourself with matter more than you think "The most important decision you're probably going to make if you're in college is who you surround yourself with, because you become like the people you surround yourself with" "When you're in college trying to figure out what your circle is going to be, or evaluating different job opportunities... who are the people, even if they're peers, who in an alternate universe you would want to work for?" "Because you think you're going to learn a lot from them, because they're values-aligned on the things you care about, and they're going to push you. They know different things and have different experiences that are more of what you want to become like over time" "I think in general people are too obsessed and maybe not focused enough on the connections and the people who they're building relationships with"

Mark Zuckerberg on why the people you surround yourself with matter more than you think "The most important decision you're probably going to make if you're in college is who you surround yourself with, because you become like the people you surround yourself with" "When you're in college trying to figure out what your circle is going to be, or evaluating different job opportunities... who are the people, even if they're peers, who in an alternate universe you would want to work for?" "Because you think you're going to learn a lot from them, because they're values-aligned on the things you care about, and they're going to push you. They know different things and have different experiences that are more of what you want to become like over time" "I think in general people are too obsessed and maybe not focused enough on the connections and the people who they're building relationships with"

Jaynit

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Ansem explains how memecoins could fix the social media model "It's discounted a lot, how large that group of people is that will invest or buy memes, but won't invest in stocks" "The reason Meta has value is because all the people on Instagram are spending a ton of time on that app, contributing a lot of value to the network with their time, their attention, etc" "But the people who are determining the value of this network typically don't have a stake in the upside" "If you can figure out a way to flip the social media model on its head, where the people who are the reason the network has value also have upside in the value of the network, there's a complete regime change on how all these things operate. One of the ways to do that is through memes"

Ansem explains how memecoins could fix the social media model "It's discounted a lot, how large that group of people is that will invest or buy memes, but won't invest in stocks" "The reason Meta has value is because all the people on Instagram are spending a ton of time on that app, contributing a lot of value to the network with their time, their attention, etc" "But the people who are determining the value of this network typically don't have a stake in the upside" "If you can figure out a way to flip the social media model on its head, where the people who are the reason the network has value also have upside in the value of the network, there's a complete regime change on how all these things operate. One of the ways to do that is through memes"

Market Bubble

17,975 Aufrufe • vor 24 Tagen

Martin Shkreli says running a hedge fund is the worst job in the world "That's the thing. I mean, why become a hedge fund manager? I have a friend who wants to start a hedge fund. I told him this is the most painful, horrible business in the world." "If you start a newsletter business that makes $50 million a year of revenue, you've done better than almost every hedge fund on the planet. You do not want to do this job." "And the reason people do it, and I did it too and I would never do it again, is it's the sexiest thing in the world." "I had friends wanting to quit really high profile jobs to be a hedge fund manager. I was just like, you're out of your mind, you don't know what this job is. It's waking up at 3 a.m. checking Korean stock prices, waking back up at 6, wondering what's happening in the world." "There's absolutely no productive thing you're doing. You're providing capital, but other than that you're really playing this high-stakes crazy poker game. It's certainly fun and interesting, but when it's painful and raw..."

dnap

157,642 Aufrufe • vor 14 Tagen

Martin Shkreli says running a hedge fund is the worst job in finance, that a newsletter doing $50 million of revenue beats almost every fund on the planet, and that people only take the job because it's the "sexiest thing" being master of the universe. "I have a friend who wants to start a hedge fund. I told him, this is the most painful, horrible business in the world. Why do this?" "If you start a newsletter business that makes $100 million a year, even $50 million a year of revenue, you've done better than almost every hedge fund on the planet." "You do not want to do this job." "And the reason people do it, and I did it too, and I would never do it again, is it's the sexiest thing in the world. You think you're the master of the universe..." "It's waking up at 3 a.m. checking Korean stock prices and waking back up at 6 wondering what's happening in the world."

Martin Shkreli says running a hedge fund is the worst job in finance, that a newsletter doing $50 million of revenue beats almost every fund on the planet, and that people only take the job because it's the "sexiest thing" being master of the universe. "I have a friend who wants to start a hedge fund. I told him, this is the most painful, horrible business in the world. Why do this?" "If you start a newsletter business that makes $100 million a year, even $50 million a year of revenue, you've done better than almost every hedge fund on the planet." "You do not want to do this job." "And the reason people do it, and I did it too, and I would never do it again, is it's the sexiest thing in the world. You think you're the master of the universe..." "It's waking up at 3 a.m. checking Korean stock prices and waking back up at 6 wondering what's happening in the world."

Fireside Alpha

203,781 Aufrufe • vor 15 Tagen

Early on in my career, I had one business and I was still figuring it out. The decisions in front of me felt like everything was on the line. I needed a model. Something that could make every call clearer, big or small. What I figured out: all decision-making is value clarification. It comes down to what’s most important to you. Two people can look at the same situation and make completely different calls. Both right. Because the answer always comes back to what you value most. Next time a decision doesn’t feel clear, run it through OOC-EMR.

Early on in my career, I had one business and I was still figuring it out. The decisions in front of me felt like everything was on the line. I needed a model. Something that could make every call clearer, big or small. What I figured out: all decision-making is value clarification. It comes down to what’s most important to you. Two people can look at the same situation and make completely different calls. Both right. Because the answer always comes back to what you value most. Next time a decision doesn’t feel clear, run it through OOC-EMR.

Tony Robbins

62,318 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

“What I think SPX is, is a wake-up call. And I think for the normie, the average person, it literally is best described as being the next Bitcoin, because that's literally what it is. Bitcoin was a wake-up call to show people that value is subjective. And SPX is the next iteration of that. And once you get enough people to understand that the value of the dollar is subjective. It only has value because people believe in it. Bitcoin only has value because people believe in it. SPX has value because people believe in it. And the next step is Well, it's not just money that is subjective in value. It is literally everything is subjective. The entire universe is this subjective entity that is created from our own consciousness. And that's what Like, the purpose of this vehicle, yes, it's going to make a lot of people a lot of money, but the point of that is to wake people up to the fact that the entire universe is this subjective entity. It is not just this, like, empirical machine with interlocking gears and like this orderly machine that proceeds from just like the sum of its parts like no like we are literally the universe creating the universe and that's what spx is meant to wake people up to.” — Crypto Maxi 💹🧲

“What I think SPX is, is a wake-up call. And I think for the normie, the average person, it literally is best described as being the next Bitcoin, because that's literally what it is. Bitcoin was a wake-up call to show people that value is subjective. And SPX is the next iteration of that. And once you get enough people to understand that the value of the dollar is subjective. It only has value because people believe in it. Bitcoin only has value because people believe in it. SPX has value because people believe in it. And the next step is Well, it's not just money that is subjective in value. It is literally everything is subjective. The entire universe is this subjective entity that is created from our own consciousness. And that's what Like, the purpose of this vehicle, yes, it's going to make a lot of people a lot of money, but the point of that is to wake people up to the fact that the entire universe is this subjective entity. It is not just this, like, empirical machine with interlocking gears and like this orderly machine that proceeds from just like the sum of its parts like no like we are literally the universe creating the universe and that's what spx is meant to wake people up to.” — Crypto Maxi 💹🧲

Tanz Cho 💹🧲

12,294 Aufrufe • vor 29 Tagen

Abdul El-Sayed: Too many of the same people who say that they're for a two-state solution are also for sending our taxpayer dollars to the tune of billions to a foreign government that is dead set on foreclosing on the possibility of a second state. You can't say you're for a two-state solution when you're supporting the people who only want one state. So I just think that we in this country have had an inconsistent approach to this for a very long time. And my responsibility as a senator from Michigan is the people of Michigan, not the people of Israel. Source: The Jim Acosta Show

Abdul El-Sayed: Too many of the same people who say that they're for a two-state solution are also for sending our taxpayer dollars to the tune of billions to a foreign government that is dead set on foreclosing on the possibility of a second state. You can't say you're for a two-state solution when you're supporting the people who only want one state. So I just think that we in this country have had an inconsistent approach to this for a very long time. And my responsibility as a senator from Michigan is the people of Michigan, not the people of Israel. Source: The Jim Acosta Show

Clash Report

15,921 Aufrufe • vor 4 Tagen

Peter Thiel: "Competition is for losers" "Competition is for losers, which got people's attention, because we normally believe the opposite. We believe that the losers are the people who don't compete intensely enough. You're a loser if you're not competitive. But what if you're a loser because you're too obsessed with competing? If you're too focused on competing, maybe you're losing sight of what's really important." Thiel explains the distinction most people miss: "The most important distinction in business that people don't talk about enough is that there are two kinds of companies in this world. There are companies that are competitive, and there are companies that have monopolies. If you're a one-of-a-kind company, a happy company that's doing something different, you are a monopoly. It is the goal of every founder, every entrepreneur, it should be their goal to try to build a monopoly business." He frames this as an unconventional truth: "Most people believe that capitalism and competition are synonyms. I believe capitalism and competition are antonyms. A capitalist is someone who's in the business of accumulating capital. A world of perfect competition is a world where all the profits are competed away."

Peter Thiel: "Competition is for losers" "Competition is for losers, which got people's attention, because we normally believe the opposite. We believe that the losers are the people who don't compete intensely enough. You're a loser if you're not competitive. But what if you're a loser because you're too obsessed with competing? If you're too focused on competing, maybe you're losing sight of what's really important." Thiel explains the distinction most people miss: "The most important distinction in business that people don't talk about enough is that there are two kinds of companies in this world. There are companies that are competitive, and there are companies that have monopolies. If you're a one-of-a-kind company, a happy company that's doing something different, you are a monopoly. It is the goal of every founder, every entrepreneur, it should be their goal to try to build a monopoly business." He frames this as an unconventional truth: "Most people believe that capitalism and competition are synonyms. I believe capitalism and competition are antonyms. A capitalist is someone who's in the business of accumulating capital. A world of perfect competition is a world where all the profits are competed away."

Jaynit

55,406 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

Ansem explains why people are so drawn to memecoins “One of the reasons dogecoin:native went so high is because you have this set of buyers who were never going to buy stocks. They didn't care about stocks at all and didn't have any money invested in the stock market” “They invested in Dogecoin because they related to the meme. They thought the meme was funny. It was fun to invest with their friends. Elon's attached to it. It was something they could understand easily and relate to” “I think it's discounted a lot how large that group of people is that will invest in whatever meme but won't invest in stocks” “If you look at Instagram, it has like 3B users but the holders of $META are only like 30M. There's only around 30M people that own Meta stock” “The reason Meta has value is because all the people on Instagram are spending a ton of time on that app, contributing a lot of value to the network by using their time and attention” “The people who are determining the value of this network typically don't have a stake in the upside” “If you can figure out a way to flip the social media model on its head where the people who are the reason the network has value also have upside in the value of the network, there's a complete regime change in how all these things operate” “I think one of the ways to do that is through memes” solana:9cRCn9rGT8V2imeM2BaKs13yhMEais3ruM3rPvTGpump

Ansem explains why people are so drawn to memecoins “One of the reasons dogecoin:native went so high is because you have this set of buyers who were never going to buy stocks. They didn't care about stocks at all and didn't have any money invested in the stock market” “They invested in Dogecoin because they related to the meme. They thought the meme was funny. It was fun to invest with their friends. Elon's attached to it. It was something they could understand easily and relate to” “I think it's discounted a lot how large that group of people is that will invest in whatever meme but won't invest in stocks” “If you look at Instagram, it has like 3B users but the holders of $META are only like 30M. There's only around 30M people that own Meta stock” “The reason Meta has value is because all the people on Instagram are spending a ton of time on that app, contributing a lot of value to the network by using their time and attention” “The people who are determining the value of this network typically don't have a stake in the upside” “If you can figure out a way to flip the social media model on its head where the people who are the reason the network has value also have upside in the value of the network, there's a complete regime change in how all these things operate” “I think one of the ways to do that is through memes” solana:9cRCn9rGT8V2imeM2BaKs13yhMEais3ruM3rPvTGpump

Jack

113,253 Aufrufe • vor 25 Tagen

Caitlin Clark: "When you're in the spotlight like this there's gonna be a million different opinions on you. And for as many people that are going to love you, there's going to be people that don't like you. That's the case with every professional athlete, men or women, playing at the highest stage. And I think what I've been able to do over the course of my career is just focus on the opinions of the people inside our locker room. That's what I really care about. The people that I love to death. The people that have had my back every single second of my career."

Caitlin Clark: "When you're in the spotlight like this there's gonna be a million different opinions on you. And for as many people that are going to love you, there's going to be people that don't like you. That's the case with every professional athlete, men or women, playing at the highest stage. And I think what I've been able to do over the course of my career is just focus on the opinions of the people inside our locker room. That's what I really care about. The people that I love to death. The people that have had my back every single second of my career."

Tyler Tachman

2,633,828 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on why most leaders fail at meritocracy: "One of the tough things about management is you have to get rid of the bad people." Dimon argues that leaders often talk about meritocracy but fail to act on it. Execution is the problem, not philosophy. "Very often you have people who are unwilling to get rid of the bad people. Bad could be because their culture is bad. It also could be because they're not good enough." He points to the difference between business and sports: "In sport, if you're not batting 250, you're not going to be playing second base. You take out a pitcher who's not doing a good job. In business, they're left in those jobs for a long time." Dimon recalls being challenged early in his career after demoting a long-tenured employee named Joe. Someone asked: "How can I be loyal to you when you weren't loyal to Joe?" He couldn't answer in the moment. But the next day, he called back: "You got it backwards. If I was loyal to Joe and kept him in the job and most people thought he just wasn't doing a good job anymore, who am I being disloyal to? Everybody else and the customer." His advice: "You have to be very careful in management about why you're doing and what you're doing..." Keeping the wrong people in place is the fastest way to lose the right ones.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on why most leaders fail at meritocracy: "One of the tough things about management is you have to get rid of the bad people." Dimon argues that leaders often talk about meritocracy but fail to act on it. Execution is the problem, not philosophy. "Very often you have people who are unwilling to get rid of the bad people. Bad could be because their culture is bad. It also could be because they're not good enough." He points to the difference between business and sports: "In sport, if you're not batting 250, you're not going to be playing second base. You take out a pitcher who's not doing a good job. In business, they're left in those jobs for a long time." Dimon recalls being challenged early in his career after demoting a long-tenured employee named Joe. Someone asked: "How can I be loyal to you when you weren't loyal to Joe?" He couldn't answer in the moment. But the next day, he called back: "You got it backwards. If I was loyal to Joe and kept him in the job and most people thought he just wasn't doing a good job anymore, who am I being disloyal to? Everybody else and the customer." His advice: "You have to be very careful in management about why you're doing and what you're doing..." Keeping the wrong people in place is the fastest way to lose the right ones.

Big Brain Business

338,908 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

A 35-year quant veteran on why AGI won't beat hedge funds: Tom Costello (ex-Tudor PM, now CIO at Bedrock) explains: "A successful hedge fund makes money when other people make mistakes. They're looking for the antelope with a limp." "You're not looking at standard deviations. You're looking at a specific decision being made in someone's head." "Even if they come up with AGI, it's never going to do materially better than the hedge fund industry already does." "We're already capturing all the alpha that's readily capturable." "To beat us, you'd need to know what people are actually deciding, when, and how new information changes their minds." "If you could obtain that in a timely fashion, you could predict every blip of the market."

A 35-year quant veteran on why AGI won't beat hedge funds: Tom Costello (ex-Tudor PM, now CIO at Bedrock) explains: "A successful hedge fund makes money when other people make mistakes. They're looking for the antelope with a limp." "You're not looking at standard deviations. You're looking at a specific decision being made in someone's head." "Even if they come up with AGI, it's never going to do materially better than the hedge fund industry already does." "We're already capturing all the alpha that's readily capturable." "To beat us, you'd need to know what people are actually deciding, when, and how new information changes their minds." "If you could obtain that in a timely fashion, you could predict every blip of the market."

Ethan Kho

126,868 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Steve Jobs on leadership In the clip below, Steve argues: “The greatest people are self-managing. They don’t need to be managed. Once they know what to do, they’ll go figure out how to do it… What they need is a common vision, and that’s what leadership is. Leadership is having a vision, being able to articulate that so the people around you can understand it, and getting consensus on a common vision.” Borrowing from his tagline for the original Mac, Steve continues: “we wanted people who were insanely great at what they did… and the neatest thing that happens when you get a core group of ten great people is that it becomes self-policing as to who they let into that group. So I consider the most important job of someone like myself to be recruiting.” This observation on the importance of getting the first ten people right is a refrain you constantly hear from the very best founders. As Patrick Collison put it: “A large part of the reason why the first ten people you hire are so important is because you’re not just hiring those first ten people. You’re actually hiring 100 people, because you should think of each of those people as bring along another ten people with them.” The best leaders recruit “insanely great” people and align them around a common vision.

Steve Jobs on leadership In the clip below, Steve argues: “The greatest people are self-managing. They don’t need to be managed. Once they know what to do, they’ll go figure out how to do it… What they need is a common vision, and that’s what leadership is. Leadership is having a vision, being able to articulate that so the people around you can understand it, and getting consensus on a common vision.” Borrowing from his tagline for the original Mac, Steve continues: “we wanted people who were insanely great at what they did… and the neatest thing that happens when you get a core group of ten great people is that it becomes self-policing as to who they let into that group. So I consider the most important job of someone like myself to be recruiting.” This observation on the importance of getting the first ten people right is a refrain you constantly hear from the very best founders. As Patrick Collison put it: “A large part of the reason why the first ten people you hire are so important is because you’re not just hiring those first ten people. You’re actually hiring 100 people, because you should think of each of those people as bring along another ten people with them.” The best leaders recruit “insanely great” people and align them around a common vision.

Startup Archive

187,721 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

Danny Briere was asked about how involved the Flyers will be on the NHL trade market. “I’m not going to make a move just to make a move. I know there’s some people out there complaining that we’re not making a big move yet, but it’s got to be the right thing to do… Right now, the value coming back is just not there for us.”

Danny Briere was asked about how involved the Flyers will be on the NHL trade market. “I’m not going to make a move just to make a move. I know there’s some people out there complaining that we’re not making a big move yet, but it’s got to be the right thing to do… Right now, the value coming back is just not there for us.”

97.5 The Fanatic

50,375 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

John: AI is actually doing very little for the economy right now. It's doing a lot for the markets, but in terms of the actual economic impact of AI, it's very low. If you add up the actual revenues from the AI labs, you're talking about $40 billion. Maybe there's like a 5x multiple on that, and so you're generating $200 billion of GDP on top of those tokens. But that's just not that much in the grand scheme of America's actual GDP. There's this disconnect between the market, which is pricing future GDP, future cash flows, future value creation. Then you have what is actually driving GDP, and then you have the actual workforce and what Americans do. What's actually holding up the American economy? It's healthcare jobs. The number of people that are software developers is less than 1% of America. The number of people that work at tech companies broadly is less than 10%.

John: AI is actually doing very little for the economy right now. It's doing a lot for the markets, but in terms of the actual economic impact of AI, it's very low. If you add up the actual revenues from the AI labs, you're talking about $40 billion. Maybe there's like a 5x multiple on that, and so you're generating $200 billion of GDP on top of those tokens. But that's just not that much in the grand scheme of America's actual GDP. There's this disconnect between the market, which is pricing future GDP, future cash flows, future value creation. Then you have what is actually driving GDP, and then you have the actual workforce and what Americans do. What's actually holding up the American economy? It's healthcare jobs. The number of people that are software developers is less than 1% of America. The number of people that work at tech companies broadly is less than 10%.

TBPN

34,206 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

Jeremy has a unique lens on how to underwrite new investment managers. He looks at whether the manager is looking up or looking down at the size of their own fund: "People overweight the investing thesis and track record and underweight the facts about the person. The personal financial situation of a manager is an incredibly underrated thing to ask about. Someone who has a million dollars in the bank, raising $100M to do a thing that they're trying to make the most money from -- that's a very different place to start from. Take two $50 million funds. One is from someone who has 500 grand in the bank and one is from someone who has $500 million in the bank. For the $500 million person, the $50 million fund might very well do better because it's held with a looser grip. You're gonna be less paralyzed by the sheer quantities of dollars. That is generally not recognized, and you see it all the time in new ventures. If you are helming something that is two or three zeros more than you have, there's just a monumental to it that is a bit intimidating...versus when you're taking bets that are negligible to you."

Jeremy has a unique lens on how to underwrite new investment managers. He looks at whether the manager is looking up or looking down at the size of their own fund: "People overweight the investing thesis and track record and underweight the facts about the person. The personal financial situation of a manager is an incredibly underrated thing to ask about. Someone who has a million dollars in the bank, raising $100M to do a thing that they're trying to make the most money from -- that's a very different place to start from. Take two $50 million funds. One is from someone who has 500 grand in the bank and one is from someone who has $500 million in the bank. For the $500 million person, the $50 million fund might very well do better because it's held with a looser grip. You're gonna be less paralyzed by the sheer quantities of dollars. That is generally not recognized, and you see it all the time in new ventures. If you are helming something that is two or three zeros more than you have, there's just a monumental to it that is a bit intimidating...versus when you're taking bets that are negligible to you."

Patrick OShaughnessy

80,785 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Ben Horowitz (a16z co-founder) offers a contrarian view: the decisions that matter most are the ones you're only 52% sure about: "It takes courage to do what you don't know is the right decision." The moments that define leadership are the ones where the answer isn't obvious and the people around you are actively against you. "You think it's the right decision and then many people think it's the wrong decision. So they're not going to like you when you make the decision." That, Ben argues, is precisely where a leader earns their keep: "That's the point at which leaders add value. Because if you just do what people want, you're not actually adding anything. You know, they could run the company without you." A leader who only ratifies consensus is redundant. The organisation could function without them. benahorowitz.eth concedes this is harder than it sounds. "Courage is a tricky thing." He reaches for a line from boxing to explain what courage actually is. His favourite quote on the subject comes from Cus D'Amato, the trainer behind Floyd Patterson and Mike Tyson: "The difference between a hero and a coward isn't what they feel. They're both scared. It's what they do." Fear isn't the variable. Action is. And the fear doesn't go away once you're the one deciding: "You're not going to feel confident in making a decision that you think is 52% right and everybody else thinks is wrong. But that's what you have to do to be good at this job." Fifty-two per cent is a coin flip with a thumb on the scale, and that's the actual texture of the decisions that matter. Which leaves the question of how you survive being disliked. Ben's answer is a reframe of the timeline: "The thing you have to keep in mind is you want to be liked and respected in the long run, not the short run."

Ben Horowitz (a16z co-founder) offers a contrarian view: the decisions that matter most are the ones you're only 52% sure about: "It takes courage to do what you don't know is the right decision." The moments that define leadership are the ones where the answer isn't obvious and the people around you are actively against you. "You think it's the right decision and then many people think it's the wrong decision. So they're not going to like you when you make the decision." That, Ben argues, is precisely where a leader earns their keep: "That's the point at which leaders add value. Because if you just do what people want, you're not actually adding anything. You know, they could run the company without you." A leader who only ratifies consensus is redundant. The organisation could function without them. benahorowitz.eth concedes this is harder than it sounds. "Courage is a tricky thing." He reaches for a line from boxing to explain what courage actually is. His favourite quote on the subject comes from Cus D'Amato, the trainer behind Floyd Patterson and Mike Tyson: "The difference between a hero and a coward isn't what they feel. They're both scared. It's what they do." Fear isn't the variable. Action is. And the fear doesn't go away once you're the one deciding: "You're not going to feel confident in making a decision that you think is 52% right and everybody else thinks is wrong. But that's what you have to do to be good at this job." Fifty-two per cent is a coin flip with a thumb on the scale, and that's the actual texture of the decisions that matter. Which leaves the question of how you survive being disliked. Ben's answer is a reframe of the timeline: "The thing you have to keep in mind is you want to be liked and respected in the long run, not the short run."

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