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In the early 2000s, climate models projected warming, but the actual observations did not follow. This gap between models and measurements became known as 'the global warming pause'. The response to this discrepancy was not to revisit the models, it was to revisit the measurements. More weather stations were...

34,837 次观看 • 5 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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Greenland Temperature Study Challenges Climate Narratives: The Data Speaks | Climate Conservative Consumer Recent analysis of MODIS satellite data (2000–2019) reveals Greenland’s surface temperatures remained remarkably stable, challenging narratives of rapid Arctic warming. The study, covering 31,464 observations across 36 sub-regions, found minimal long-term trends—only a slight cooling of ~0.05°C per decade, with three of four regions showing no significant change and the South region cooling slightly. This contrasts with expectations of accelerated warming, though seasonal patterns remained consistent. The findings suggest factors beyond surface temperature, such as ocean currents or ice dynamics, may drive observed ice sheet changes. Ice-free areas showed higher average temperatures than ice-covered regions but neither displayed significant warming, challenging assumptions that ice-free regions would warm faster. The study aligns with other research indicating slowed warming since the 1990s, complicating climate model assumptions. While MODIS data has limitations (e.g., cloud cover), the results highlight complex Arctic climate dynamics, urging reevaluation of ice melt drivers and their implications for sea level projections. The analysis divided Greenland into four primary regions (North, Central-North, Central-South, South), each with nine sub-regions, using statistical methods to isolate long-term trends from seasonal variability. These results underscore the need for honest integration of such findings into climate science discourse, emphasizing the complexity of Arctic climate dynamics and demanding reassessment of current climate models. Read more:

Owen Gregorian

129,879 次观看 • 1 年前

lol This is a crock of crap. Climate “scientists” cannot get their climate models to produce accurate hindcasts of 20th century global mean surface temperature (GMST) observations without having precursory knowledge of 20th century observations to calibrate them to. That's curve fitting, not science. These models also run on circular reasoning. When global climate models (GCMs) are input with the supposedly “established physics” you mentioned, the energy fluxes in and out of the Earth’s atmosphere are not balanced, which causes the models to drift into unrealistic climate states (either too hot or too cold, but usually running too hot). Rather than doing real science to try figuring out why the best physics we have don't yield correct values, scientists simply assume that fluxes were balanced before the Industrial Revolution. They then adjust any uncertain parameters (e.g., clouds and aerosol) to force energy fluxes to balance. It is then assumed that there are no natural pathways that can cause energy imbalance, so modelers input CO₂ forcing, the climate system warms, and they say, “See!? CO₂ caused the warming.” While it may prove that there is at least some effects from CO₂, all else being equal, it in no way, shape or form proves that all of the observed warming is due to CO₂. They assumed it was at the outset, then forced their GCMs to produce that result. That's circular logic, not science. We also know model outputs are just statistical curve fitting because while the GMST response to a forcing has one value, the range of uncertainty in the aerosol contribution to GMST change since 1850 is 1°C. If you take the median of the CMIP6 models shown in Figure 3.8 from IPCC AR6 WG1, the uncertainty is a whopping 125%. If you don’t know that vital piece of information about aerosol forcing, you cannot have any confidence whatsoever in anything else. Arguing with me about this is not going to go well for you, I'm afraid. If you need an explainer that isn't so jargon-filled, Dr. Roy Spencer has a good one in the video below from a presentation he gave on March 3, 2021.

Chris Martz

27,313 次观看 • 5 天前

Sea Levels Not Surging Despite Years Of Climate Activists And Corporate Media Freaking Out, Study Finds | Audrey Streb, Daily Caller News Foundation One recent study compiling sea level rise data shows oceans are not surging as much as the scientific world previously projected and corporate media has repeatedly sounded the alarm over. The Journal of Marine Science and Engineering published the peer-reviewed study on Aug. 27, authored by Dutch engineering consultant Hessel G. Voortman and independent researcher Rob De Vos. The study concluded that the average rate of sea level rise in 2020 was well below other widely cited analyses, and that when projections were compared with local data, there was little evidence climate change was driving the acceleration seen in a few regions — a finding energy policy experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation challenges mainstream climate change orthodoxy. “Overall, this study indicates that in most places, sea levels are not rising unusually quickly. In the relatively few locations where sea levels are rising faster than average, the cause is almost certainly local factors such as land subsidence or ground compaction,” Sterling Burnett, director of the Arthur B. Robinson Center on Climate and Environmental Policy at The Heartland Institute, told the DCNF. “Global sea levels are currently rising more slowly than they have for much of the time since the last ice age ended — a period during which seas rose more than 400 feet. Any possible increase in the recent rate of rise compared with the past century is small, within the margin of error, and not outside historical patterns.” Though the report doesn’t account for sea level rise everywhere, Voortman told journalist Michael Shellenberger on Tuesday that he was surprised no one had compiled such a study before, noting it is the first to compare projections with recorded local data from the past century. The two data sets the researchers drew from did have some gaps, which meant that most sections in the world with usable data were in the Northern Hemisphere, with several of the “selected stations” spanning North America, Europe and Japan. Gaps in the data included regions around Australia, the northeast of Latin America, East Asia and most of Africa. “The average rate of sea level rise in 2020 is (only) around 1.5 mm/year (15 cm per century)” Voortman said Tuesday. “This is significantly lower than the 3 to 4 mm/year often reported by climate scientists in scientific literature and the media.” The report notes that in the data sets the researchers used, “approximately 95% of the suitable locations show no statistically significant acceleration of the rate of sea level rise,” and that regions that did see a spike in sea level likely “local, non-climatic phenomena are a plausible cause of the accelerated sea level rise observed at the remaining 5% of the suitable locations.” “It is crazy that it had not been done. … I started doing this research in 2021 by doing the literature review. ‘Who has done the comparison of the projections with the observations?’ And there were none,” Voortman said Tuesday. “I had to do a lot of programming and automate data imports and data management. I organized it by using databases so that I really knew what I was doing. It was very structured because I was dealing with 150,000 locations and, on average, 100 years of data. That made one and a half million lines of data. I found myself for days working on things that I felt, ‘This is more computer science than civil engineering.'” Steve Milloy, senior fellow at the Energy & Environment Legal Institute, told the DCNF that “there are a lot of additional factors that can affect tide gauge measurements including geological changes, groundwater withdrawal, and land use. But climate alarmists falsely chalk up all changes to polar ice melting caused by emissions-driven ‘global warming.'” A few other studies have been published of late that also challenge climate change hysteria, with one widely reported study showing that Arctic Sea ice melting has slowed in the last 20 years. Another recent report found that a 2024 climate change study — heavily cited by legacy media for projecting up to $38 trillion in global damages by 2050 — relied on inaccurate data.

Owen Gregorian

105,142 次观看 • 10 个月前