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In this interview, Ackman pointed out the distinction between maintenance capex and growth capex. A retail business forced to spend heavily to renovate stores just to remain competitive is engaging in value-destroying maintenance. On the other hand, the billions being spent by $MSFT and $AMZN on data centers and... show more

CapexAndChill

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15,946 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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Unabridged John profil fotoğrafı

Unabridged John4 ay önce

and when that compute is obsolete in 4 years? They won't need to invest more to sustain that growth?

the Fundamental Investor profil fotoğrafı

the Fundamental Investor4 ay önce

Yes! A lot of people seem to forget this. Also couple this with the very high ROIC% rate which demonstrates the capex will generate future cash flows.

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Ackman on attempting to predict the markets in the short-term: "It's a fool's errand to predict what the stock market's going to do in the short term." Ackman on the market's current multiple: "People say, 'Oh, it's overvalued,' but I would argue that the business mix... is a very different business mix than it was 30 years ago. They're deserving of much higher valuations." Bill acknowledged $MSFT and $AMZN are both trading at very attractive multiples. He even gave a shout-out to $NVDA 👀 when mentioning the index's composition is now dominated by high-margin, high-growth technology companies that deserve higher premiums than the legacy industrial mix of 30 years ago.

Ackman on attempting to predict the markets in the short-term: "It's a fool's errand to predict what the stock market's going to do in the short term." Ackman on the market's current multiple: "People say, 'Oh, it's overvalued,' but I would argue that the business mix... is a very different business mix than it was 30 years ago. They're deserving of much higher valuations." Bill acknowledged $MSFT and $AMZN are both trading at very attractive multiples. He even gave a shout-out to $NVDA 👀 when mentioning the index's composition is now dominated by high-margin, high-growth technology companies that deserve higher premiums than the legacy industrial mix of 30 years ago.

CapexAndChill

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An in depth analysis of $AMZN, $META, $PLTR, $AMD, $MSFT Q3 earnings reveals more compute continues to equate to more intelligence and thus, incremental value delivered to end customers. The market is freaking out because fundamentals are impossibly good. I remain long AI.

An in depth analysis of $AMZN, $META, $PLTR, $AMD, $MSFT Q3 earnings reveals more compute continues to equate to more intelligence and thus, incremental value delivered to end customers. The market is freaking out because fundamentals are impossibly good. I remain long AI.

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Ackamn noted that the market is heavily distracted by momentum and hype specifically regarding semiconductor/memory chips and new IPOs. This obsession drains attention and capital away from massive, highly profitable tech incumbents. Ackman named $META and $MSFT, noting that the market currently treats them as old-fashioned companies. This lack of excitement makes fundamentally dominant mega-caps "very cheap" on a relative basis compared to overvalued, hype-driven sectors. Even $NVDA has recently become a lot cheaper on a price to growth basis as the market continues to follow momentum.

Ackamn noted that the market is heavily distracted by momentum and hype specifically regarding semiconductor/memory chips and new IPOs. This obsession drains attention and capital away from massive, highly profitable tech incumbents. Ackman named $META and $MSFT, noting that the market currently treats them as old-fashioned companies. This lack of excitement makes fundamentally dominant mega-caps "very cheap" on a relative basis compared to overvalued, hype-driven sectors. Even $NVDA has recently become a lot cheaper on a price to growth basis as the market continues to follow momentum.

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Gene Munster on AI CapEx spend for 2027: "Street is looking for 23% CapEx growth for next year, few weeks ago it was 17%. If we take what CNBC is reporting this year on the $25B raise from Amazon and the recent comments from Google on their capital raise, that probably suggests the numbers are going to be up 37%." $AMZN $GOOGL $MSFT $META

Gene Munster on AI CapEx spend for 2027: "Street is looking for 23% CapEx growth for next year, few weeks ago it was 17%. If we take what CNBC is reporting this year on the $25B raise from Amazon and the recent comments from Google on their capital raise, that probably suggests the numbers are going to be up 37%." $AMZN $GOOGL $MSFT $META

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$AMD delivered a strong quarter into an almost perfect bar but the market fixated on capex more than doubling from $389M to $808M. That spending supports two AI engines at once because agentic systems need EPYC CPUs to retrieve data, call tools and coordinate workloads while Helios expands AMD into accelerators and complete rack-scale systems. AMD now sees server CPU market growing from ~$26B in 2025 to $220B by 2030 so the capex may pressure near-term sentiment but its funding the capacity required to capture the growth investors are demanding.

Shay Boloor

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Variant Bio 5/ Here in response to super smart (& scoop king) Andy Dunn of Endpoints News on our Lux quarterly letter contrarian investment theses of MAINTENANCE Gist: capex has 2 parts (growth + maintenance) and the last decade investors clamored for growth neglecting maintenance—ergo opportunity

Variant Bio 5/ Here in response to super smart (& scoop king) Andy Dunn of Endpoints News on our Lux quarterly letter contrarian investment theses of MAINTENANCE Gist: capex has 2 parts (growth + maintenance) and the last decade investors clamored for growth neglecting maintenance—ergo opportunity

Josh Wolfe

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CEO of AWS, Matt Garman, on Amazon's CapEx spend: "The capex expense needed to deploy all of the compute everyone needs right now is massive. Our capex is $220 billion for 26. It's the largest expense we've ever had, maybe any company has ever had in a single year. We don't anticipate slowing down anytime soon because the demand is massive." Via a16z $GOOGL $MSFT $META $ORCL $AMZN

CEO of AWS, Matt Garman, on Amazon's CapEx spend: "The capex expense needed to deploy all of the compute everyone needs right now is massive. Our capex is $220 billion for 26. It's the largest expense we've ever had, maybe any company has ever had in a single year. We don't anticipate slowing down anytime soon because the demand is massive." Via a16z $GOOGL $MSFT $META $ORCL $AMZN

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Jensen Huang $NVDA says the AI infrastructure buildout will continue to grow exponentially for the next 7–8 years before reaching a level that will need to be sustained. $AMZN, $META, $GOOGL, and $MSFT are expected to spend around ~$700B in capex in 2026, up ~60% vs 2025. Growth rates like this are likely to persist for several more years. Betting on chipmakers like $NVDA, $AMD, and $AVGO remains one of the safest and most compelling plays.

Jensen Huang $NVDA says the AI infrastructure buildout will continue to grow exponentially for the next 7–8 years before reaching a level that will need to be sustained. $AMZN, $META, $GOOGL, and $MSFT are expected to spend around ~$700B in capex in 2026, up ~60% vs 2025. Growth rates like this are likely to persist for several more years. Betting on chipmakers like $NVDA, $AMD, and $AVGO remains one of the safest and most compelling plays.

Daniel

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$MSFT and $META will likely reaffirm or raise capex today, but it’s a Goldilocks situation. Market hates the investments right now, but they are existential to these companies long term.

$MSFT and $META will likely reaffirm or raise capex today, but it’s a Goldilocks situation. Market hates the investments right now, but they are existential to these companies long term.

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In Ackman's latest interview he divides the AI market, stating that it is not a bubble at the foundational layer, but highly risky at the software/model layer. He sees "near infinite demand" for compute. He believes infrastructure providers such as Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and even SpaceX will earn massive returns on their data center investments. He is highly skeptical of pure model layer businesses like OpenAI and Anthropic. He notes they face massive capital burn rates and an existential threat from open-source models such as Chinese model and SpaceX that are driving the cost of AI access effectively to zero. A business model reliant on charging for proprietary models will collapse if open-source alternatives are essentially free. $AMZN $META $MSFT $SPCX

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AustinFindsAlpha

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Hohn’s strategy essentially redefines quality as extreme resilience against substitution and competition over a multi-decade timeline. Hohn targets super-companies where physical, non-replicable assets create monopolistic barriers to entry, rendering executive talent largely irrelevant to the underlying cash flows. He deliberately avoids high-growth sectors vulnerable to disruption, viewing terminal value as the greatest source of alpha missed by short-term analysts. For instance, in infrastructure, he targets assets like cell towers, rail lines, and literal toll roads where tenancy ratios allow for near-100% margin expansion on zero-cost additions, and cash flow yields are contractually linked to inflation. In aerospace, his conviction is absolute. TCI's largest holding is $GE Aerospace. Hohn categorizes this as an unbreakable moat because the complexity of building aircraft engines has prevented any new market entrants in over 50 years. The true economic value, however, is not the engine itself, but the captive aftermarket spare parts and servicing ecosystem. Once an airline adopts an engine, the switching costs are effectively insurmountable, guaranteeing decades of highly predictable, high-margin revenue. Hohn’s view on moats is dynamic. He believes even the strongest moats can erode. In a definitive move in early 2026, TCI slashed a large portion of its $8B stake in $MSFT, which is a position held for nearly a decade. Hohn explicitly cited that the rapid advancement of Generative AI posed an existential risk to Microsoft's core Office and Azure moats, proving that he will mercilessly abandon a historically 'high quality' asset the moment technological disruption threatens its terminal value.

CapexAndChill

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$AMZN $GOOGL $MSFT and $META all understand that the risk of underinvesting in AI Capex is significantly larger than overspending. 👏🏻

$AMZN $GOOGL $MSFT and $META all understand that the risk of underinvesting in AI Capex is significantly larger than overspending. 👏🏻

Daniel Newman

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I’m beyond excited to finally announce Internet Backyard We’ve raised $4.5M pre-seed to build the financial backbone of the global compute economy, starting with billing for data centers. Every day, $1.2B flows into compute, almost entirely debt-financed. AI is surpassing every growth curve we’ve seen: training runs heading toward $1B each, global capacity set to triple, trillions in capex already committed. And yet the financial rails underneath it all are still running on spreadsheets.

I’m beyond excited to finally announce Internet Backyard We’ve raised $4.5M pre-seed to build the financial backbone of the global compute economy, starting with billing for data centers. Every day, $1.2B flows into compute, almost entirely debt-financed. AI is surpassing every growth curve we’ve seen: training runs heading toward $1B each, global capacity set to triple, trillions in capex already committed. And yet the financial rails underneath it all are still running on spreadsheets.

mai

107,951 görüntüleme • 11 ay önce

If you trade $QQQ or big tech, watch this before the close. 🚨 Market is ripping. $QQQ +2.5%. In today’s video $MSFT crushes earnings and capex. Semi and AI names push higher. $META ramps capex and gets sold. What I’m expecting from $AAPL and $AMZN after the bell. Watch now 👇

If you trade $QQQ or big tech, watch this before the close. 🚨 Market is ripping. $QQQ +2.5%. In today’s video $MSFT crushes earnings and capex. Semi and AI names push higher. $META ramps capex and gets sold. What I’m expecting from $AAPL and $AMZN after the bell. Watch now 👇

Peter DiCarlo

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$GOOG's business and growth outlook is rock solid. Shares sold off on the massive CapEx guide, comments on rising depreciation impacting earnings, and unknowns around quarter-to-quarter Cloud growth.

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Gene Munster

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Before debating the model, define the business. TeraWulf CFO Patrick Fleury clears up a key misconception around $WULF: TeraWulf provides the powered infrastructure, controlled environment, and access to reliable power and cooling. The tenant owns the technology stack. That distinction is fundamental to maintenance CapEx assumptions and financial modeling. We're always happy to engage with investors looking to better understand the model 🐺

Before debating the model, define the business. TeraWulf CFO Patrick Fleury clears up a key misconception around $WULF: TeraWulf provides the powered infrastructure, controlled environment, and access to reliable power and cooling. The tenant owns the technology stack. That distinction is fundamental to maintenance CapEx assumptions and financial modeling. We're always happy to engage with investors looking to better understand the model 🐺

TeraWulf

22,905 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce