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Intercontinental Exchange CEO Jeffrey Sprecher says Hyperliquid is bigger than Nasdaq in daily perpetual futures volume, Paxos wins SEC approval to clear U.S. stocks on blockchain rails, and Kalshi sues Minnesota over its prediction market ban. Sam Ewen | CoinDesk has what you need to know.

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DROPS E39: Worm - The permissionless truth machine Nass Diba studied quantum physics, worked at Facebook, then left to build in crypto. He's now building Worm - a permissionless prediction market on Solana with leverage. His thesis: prediction markets are the only mechanism that consistently surfaces truth, and they're about to matter more than ever. He grew up in Iran under a dictatorship. He watched state TV claim there was no inflation while the money in people's pockets shrank. That's not a metaphor for him - it's the problem he's building to solve. We talk about: - Why CNN and Fox both showed different election results in 2024 - Growing up in Iran and experiencing information asymmetry under dictatorship firsthand - Building a Poly Market Telegram mini app in September 2024 and getting 56,000 users overnight - Why 90% of those users weren't American - and what that revealed about the technology - How leverage works on prediction markets, why it took 9 months to build, and what liquidation actually means when there's no price - just probability - Why Polymarket and Kalshi are scratching the surface of what's possible - Prediction markets as the engagement layer for Web3 - and what Worm is launching on HyperLiquid HIP-4 And much more… Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction 1:17 Welcome to DROPS 1:57 Prediction Markets in 2026 3:08 Can the crowd be wrong? 4:26 Money Creates Better Truth Discovery 5:22 Who is Nass? 5:55 Growing up in Iran 6:52 Entered Crypto in 2019 8:05 Discovering Prediction Markets 10:08 Signal Behind the 2024 Elections 11:59 How Prediction Markets Disrupt Traditional Media 13:16 Traditional Media Prioritizes Incentives Over Truth 17:33 Polymarket vs Kalshi: Which Model Wins? 18:25 Why is Kalshi or Polymarket enough? 19:43 Lessons Learned Building on Polymarket 21:07 Building Worm on Solana 21:56 What Is Worm and its special elements? 23:36 How Leverage Works on Prediction Markets 25:29 Hedging 27:33 Prediction Markets vs Options & Perps 29:15 How Liquidations Work 31:13 Why Leverage is more than a Gimmick 33:04 Building Leverage Was Harder Than Expected 34:12 Solving Liquidity Problem 36:05 How Worm Acquires Users 36:59 Inflection Point for Prediction Markets 39:06 Why Worm chose Solana 40:24 Becoming the Hyperliquid of Prediction Markets 42:26 Solana vs Hyperliquid: Which Wins? 45:00 Conclusion

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Hyperliquid and Polymarket dominate in the West. In Asia, there is no equivalent. TurboFlow is building it. Tony (TurboFlow) joins Stateful, hosted by Mason Nystrom. In this episode, they discuss why Asia has been missing a world-class trading platform and how TurboFlow is building it: - Asian traders operate in communities, not alone. That changes everything about product design. - Prediction markets beat perps for retail: click yes or no on anything. No margin knowledge needed. - $9 trillion in perps volume in 2025. Still only 75K to 200K daily active traders on-chain. - Bear markets are for building. Competitors go to sleep. You lay the foundation. - 18-month goal: dominate Asian prediction markets and expand to 50 assets including RWAs and FX. 00:00 Why Asia Has No Hyperliquid or Polymarket 01:56 The Perps Market Today: $9 Trillion, Only 200K Daily Traders 06:07 Why Prediction Markets Beat Perps for Retail 11:18 What Actually Matters When Building a Trading Platform 14:45 Lessons from Co-Founding Amber Group 18:46 Quick Fire: Bear Market Timing, 18-Month Roadmap

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Kalshi raised $1B at an $11B valuation. A decade ago, only a few thousand people knew what a prediction market was. Eighteen months ago, most prediction markets were banned - until we overcame the government to set them free. Over the past seven years, our community has opened up an entirely new category. Today, Kalshi is trusted, used, and loved by millions of people. It’s a part of everyday culture, and it’s driving one of the most important shifts in consumer behavior in recent history. The time has finally come for prediction markets to achieve their full potential and we are intent on making that happen. To all the believers and the early adopters: thank you.

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1:02

DraftKings co-founder says every sportsbook in America is building a prediction market right now and Kalshi is about to get decimated by competition "There's not a sportsbook in the US who's not building an exchange right now. DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics, MGM. DraftKings just acquired a company called Railbird, and it's basically the same exact thing as Kalshi. It'll all just going to be in house stuff built by real consumer product teams that have real instinct around the customer and know how to actually make a normal person happy." "That's the whole reason I don't think Kalshi has anything durable here. You have a couple months where maybe you're a first mover. But once the competition is there it's going to decimate them."

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189,749 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten