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Iran just closed the Strait again, live, as this interview was starting. Lt. Col. Davis said it was predictable as sunrise and he's right, you cannot end a 3-party war with a 2-party deal. Israel was never in the room and they've made clear they never intend to honor...

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Mario Nawfal

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237,045 Aufrufe • vor 24 Tagen •via X (Twitter)

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🇺🇸🇮🇷⚡️ — President Trump on Iran: We ended the war with Iran today, and they have agreed never to have a nuclear weapon, something that we insisted on. That was the whole purpose. That was 95% of it, and they've done it in the most powerful way you can do it.

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"Iran refused to let this be just another war in West Asia, where Americans and Israelis dropped bombs and it was far away from the people of the world." Sharmine Narwani noted that by closing the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is ensuring that this war is on the minds of EVERYONE, EVERYDAY.
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"Iran refused to let this be just another war in West Asia, where Americans and Israelis dropped bombs and it was far away from the people of the world." Sharmine Narwani noted that by closing the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is ensuring that this war is on the minds of EVERYONE, EVERYDAY.

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Possibly the best analysis on the Iran-US war and how it could end. As part of much broader conversation with Drop Site, Trita Parsi search. .. makes the case for why Iran cannot end this conflict without imposing a high enough cost on Israel and the US to deter them from coming after Iran again. Effectively: “ • Iran’s core goal is to end the war in a way that makes it impossible to restart. They refuse to accept a simple ceasefire that lets the US and Israel regroup, rearm, and attack again in six or eight months — a “mowing the lawn” cycle Iran literally cannot survive. • To achieve lasting deterrence, Iran must make the war as costly as possible for the United States, Israel, and others involved. The aim is for everyone to conclude this war was a grave mistake that should never be repeated. • Iran will not agree to end the war without some form of sanctions relief. This isn’t just leverage — it’s survival. Without relief, Iran emerges weakened and degraded, making future attacks even more likely because weakness is exactly what invited this war in the first place. • Sanctions relief is therefore part of Iran’s long-term deterrence strategy. It prevents the country from sliding into continuous decline and removes the incentive for the US and Israel to strike again. • Negotiations are inevitable. The US has already quietly opened the door by lifting sanctions on Iranian oil at sea to help bring down global oil prices — a clear sign that sanctions relief is now on the table. • Continuing the war carries huge risk: if it drags on and Trump can no longer credibly claim victory, he loses any incentive to end it. The conflict could then become a low-intensity “forever war” that destroys his presidency.”
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Possibly the best analysis on the Iran-US war and how it could end. As part of much broader conversation with Drop Site, Trita Parsi search. .. makes the case for why Iran cannot end this conflict without imposing a high enough cost on Israel and the US to deter them from coming after Iran again. Effectively: “ • Iran’s core goal is to end the war in a way that makes it impossible to restart. They refuse to accept a simple ceasefire that lets the US and Israel regroup, rearm, and attack again in six or eight months — a “mowing the lawn” cycle Iran literally cannot survive. • To achieve lasting deterrence, Iran must make the war as costly as possible for the United States, Israel, and others involved. The aim is for everyone to conclude this war was a grave mistake that should never be repeated. • Iran will not agree to end the war without some form of sanctions relief. This isn’t just leverage — it’s survival. Without relief, Iran emerges weakened and degraded, making future attacks even more likely because weakness is exactly what invited this war in the first place. • Sanctions relief is therefore part of Iran’s long-term deterrence strategy. It prevents the country from sliding into continuous decline and removes the incentive for the US and Israel to strike again. • Negotiations are inevitable. The US has already quietly opened the door by lifting sanctions on Iranian oil at sea to help bring down global oil prices — a clear sign that sanctions relief is now on the table. • Continuing the war carries huge risk: if it drags on and Trump can no longer credibly claim victory, he loses any incentive to end it. The conflict could then become a low-intensity “forever war” that destroys his presidency.”

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 PROXY STRATEGY MAY BE IRAN'S BIGGEST BARGAINING CHIP Retired Lt. Col. Daniel Davis explores whether Iran will trade its proxy network for something bigger. The key question post-ceasefire: does Iran keep arming Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, or does it pivot to relying purely on ballistic missiles and Strait of Hormuz leverage as its deterrent? Davis says the latter could actually bring regional stability, ending the Saudi-Iran-Israel proxy wars playing out across Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq. "I'm hoping the latter, because that would bring more peace to the region." But he warns the U.S. and Israel are not humbled enough yet to let that happen. Daniel Davis Deep Dive

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In an interview for Al Mayadeen, Professor Mohammad Marandi said that Iran and the US agreed upon terms that "were very appealing to Iran," explaining that the US accepted a regional end to the war, an end to the war on Lebanon, and to put off discussions about the nuclear program until the second stage. "So the only thing that is in this text that hasn't been agreed upon yet is Iran saying that it will not build a nuclear weapon, but that's what Iran has been saying for decades. So that's not something new for Iran," Professor Marandi said. He explained that the US wanted the Strait of Hormuz to return to normal, but Iran did not accept that, explaining that what Iran accepted "will return to normal is the number of ships that pass through," while it maintains control of the Strait. Seyed Mohammad Marandi #AlMayadeen #Iran #IranWar #US #Hormuz
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In an interview for Al Mayadeen, Professor Mohammad Marandi said that Iran and the US agreed upon terms that "were very appealing to Iran," explaining that the US accepted a regional end to the war, an end to the war on Lebanon, and to put off discussions about the nuclear program until the second stage. "So the only thing that is in this text that hasn't been agreed upon yet is Iran saying that it will not build a nuclear weapon, but that's what Iran has been saying for decades. So that's not something new for Iran," Professor Marandi said. He explained that the US wanted the Strait of Hormuz to return to normal, but Iran did not accept that, explaining that what Iran accepted "will return to normal is the number of ships that pass through," while it maintains control of the Strait. Seyed Mohammad Marandi #AlMayadeen #Iran #IranWar #US #Hormuz

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🚨 IRAN JUST RESPONDED TO PRESIDENT TRUMP’S DEAL Iran apparently wants to “end the war” and ensure safety in the Strait HOLD THEM TO IT! “Reports indicate that Iran has responded to the U.S. peace proposal to end the war, giving their response to Pakistani mediators.” “Now, initial reports in Iranian state media indicate their response focuses on ending the war and ensuring security in the Strait of Hormuz. There is no mention of Iran's nuclear program, a key agenda item for the Trump administration.” “This comes as we're also tracking reports of a cargo ship that was targeted off the coast of Qatar earlier this week.” Trey Yingst
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🚨 IRAN JUST RESPONDED TO PRESIDENT TRUMP’S DEAL Iran apparently wants to “end the war” and ensure safety in the Strait HOLD THEM TO IT! “Reports indicate that Iran has responded to the U.S. peace proposal to end the war, giving their response to Pakistani mediators.” “Now, initial reports in Iranian state media indicate their response focuses on ending the war and ensuring security in the Strait of Hormuz. There is no mention of Iran's nuclear program, a key agenda item for the Trump administration.” “This comes as we're also tracking reports of a cargo ship that was targeted off the coast of Qatar earlier this week.” Trey Yingst

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 IRAN COULD EMERGE AS REGIONAL POWER BROKER Retired Lt. Col. Daniel Davis lays out how this war reshapes the entire regional order. Gulf states that hosted 13 American bases, now severely damaged and partially evacuated, have no reason to return to business as usual. The petrodollar's credibility rested on US protection. That protection failed. Iran, meanwhile, has proven it can close the Strait of Hormuz and may demand future tolls paid in yuan, further eroding dollar dominance. "I don't see any military path to force Iran into capitulation... short of a nuclear weapon, and even that I don't think would get it done." The post-war map looks nothing like the pre-war one. Daniel Davis Deep Dive

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Dr. Suzanne Maloney says this war was never about strategy; it was about Trump's legacy, and that gives Iran enormous leverage. "He can't have a war that ends with Iran in control of the strait and with some capacity of highly enriched uranium that could lead them to a quick breakout to nuclear weapons capability." If Iran won't give Trump his season finale, nobody wins. Suzanne Maloney
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Dr. Suzanne Maloney says this war was never about strategy; it was about Trump's legacy, and that gives Iran enormous leverage. "He can't have a war that ends with Iran in control of the strait and with some capacity of highly enriched uranium that could lead them to a quick breakout to nuclear weapons capability." If Iran won't give Trump his season finale, nobody wins. Suzanne Maloney

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