Video yükleniyor...

Video Yüklenemedi

Bu video yüklenirken bir sorun oluştu. Bu geçici bir ağ sorunundan kaynaklanıyor olabilir veya video kullanılamıyor olabilir.

Ana Sayfaya Dön

🚨 IRAN: KILLINGS CONTINUE DESPITE CLAIMS THEY STOPPED Source Selena 🇮🇱 Despite President Trump’s statement that the killings in Iran have stopped, U.S. intelligence estimates say the regime is still killing protesters. What’s happening now: • New footage from Dezful shows forces firing on civilians • Basij militants shot... an unarmed protester at point-blank range • Protests reignited in Lorestan, Mashhad, Rasht, Tehran, Karaj • Funerals for recently returned bodies are fueling new demonstrations • Markets burned in Rasht; witnesses say security forces set fires, blocked exits, then opened fire • After ~5–6pm, cities resemble martial law • IRGC UAVs spotted over Tehran and Qazvin • Checkpoints, phone searches, rapid arrests and prosecutions continue nationwide This crackdown never stopped. It just went darker. Stay connected, follow Mossad Commentaryshow more

Mossad Commentary

1,049,011 subscribers

47,158 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

Haberler & Politika

Anya Rossi• Live Now

Private livecam show

0 Yorum

Yorum bulunmuyor

Orijinal gönderinin yorumları burada görünecek

Benzer Videolar

The ayatollah gave a direct order to kill protesters. The death toll has crossed one thousand Protesters in Iran report that security forces opened fire on crowds without warnings or attempts to disperse them. “They were simply killing people, over and over again,” a Tehran resident told the BBC. After Ali Khamenei declared that the regime would “not retreat”, the violence escalated sharply. The IRGC and the Basij militia were deployed to the streets — ideologically indoctrinated fanatics loyal to the ayatollah. Witnesses from Tehran, Ferdows, Karaj, and Mashhad describe the same scenes: ambushes in side streets, shootings from unmarked vehicles, and large numbers of bodies lying in the streets. The internet has been almost completely shut down for several days, making it impossible to verify the full scale of the killings. The regime cut connectivity not only to prevent protesters from coordinating, but also to ensure that the security forces’ atrocities are not seen by the world. Death toll estimates vary. Reuters reports around 2,000 killed, while opposition media cite significantly higher numbers. The regime labels the protests “terrorism” and blames the United States and Israel. The order to shoot protesters was personally given by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and approved by Iran’s entire leadership. Despite the unprecedented scale of repression, the protests continue and threaten to bring down the regime. It looks like Trump may need to intervene — now.

The ayatollah gave a direct order to kill protesters. The death toll has crossed one thousand Protesters in Iran report that security forces opened fire on crowds without warnings or attempts to disperse them. “They were simply killing people, over and over again,” a Tehran resident told the BBC. After Ali Khamenei declared that the regime would “not retreat”, the violence escalated sharply. The IRGC and the Basij militia were deployed to the streets — ideologically indoctrinated fanatics loyal to the ayatollah. Witnesses from Tehran, Ferdows, Karaj, and Mashhad describe the same scenes: ambushes in side streets, shootings from unmarked vehicles, and large numbers of bodies lying in the streets. The internet has been almost completely shut down for several days, making it impossible to verify the full scale of the killings. The regime cut connectivity not only to prevent protesters from coordinating, but also to ensure that the security forces’ atrocities are not seen by the world. Death toll estimates vary. Reuters reports around 2,000 killed, while opposition media cite significantly higher numbers. The regime labels the protests “terrorism” and blames the United States and Israel. The order to shoot protesters was personally given by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and approved by Iran’s entire leadership. Despite the unprecedented scale of repression, the protests continue and threaten to bring down the regime. It looks like Trump may need to intervene — now.

NEXTA

151,139 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

🚨It’s 2:30 a.m. in Tehran, and here are my 12 key observations from Day 15 of Iran’s protests (January 11): 1️⃣ On the fifteenth day of protests in Iran, following the fourth nationwide call by Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, demonstrations and strikes continued across multiple parts of the country. A strike by truck drivers and shopkeepers in Shiraz began on Sunday morning. At the same time, people took to the streets in several cities, including Tehran, Bandar Abbas, Abdanan, and Shahsavar. Crowd sizes in Tehran remain notable and significant, but smaller than yesterday. 2⃣ Late last night, Iran International confirmed that at least 2,000 people have been killed in Iran—a figure described as conservative. At the same time, horrifying new videos and images emerged showing families of the victims gathered at forensic medicine centers, with hundreds of bodies laid on the ground. The scale of the killings has plunged Iranian society into deep shock and collective mourning. 3⃣ Following the release of these images, regime state media and officials implicitly acknowledged the occurrence of mass killings—without providing figures—while attempting to deflect responsibility. They claimed the bodies were “left behind by rioters” and denied the government’s role. Simultaneously, President Masoud Pezeshkian, the regime’s so-called reformist president, alleged that protesters had beheaded people and burned them alive. 4⃣ Field reports indicate large gatherings in Tehran neighborhoods including Punok, Shahrak-e Beheshti, Saadat Abad, Ashrafi Esfahani, and Pirouzi. In Shahsavar, protesters lit fires and chanted “Javid Shah,” while heavy gunfire can be heard in multiple videos. In Abdanan, large crowds attended the funeral of one of the victims, chanting “Death to Khamenei.” 5⃣ Protests continued across Iran until around 2:00 a.m. This morning, new videos emerged from Behesht-e Zahra cemetery, where families chanted “Death to Khamenei” during burial ceremonies. Regime forces responded by attacking mourners with tear gas and paintball guns. Meanwhile, strikes by truck drivers and shopkeepers continued in Shiraz. In Tehran, protesters reportedly renamed a square from the name of Khomeini’s grandson to Pahlavi. 6⃣ Iran’s internet shutdown remains in place. According to NetBlocks, more than 72 hours after the blackout began, national connectivity is still at around 1% of normal levels. Due to the outage, information is emerging slowly and with delay, and very few reports are reaching the outside world from smaller cities. 7⃣ Coinciding with the fifteenth day of Iran’s national uprising, solidarity rallies by Iranians abroad continued in hundreds of cities across Europe, the United States, Canada, and elsewhere worldwide, in support of the Iranian people and Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi. These demonstrations, however, received limited coverage in major Western media outlets. 8⃣ Judiciary Chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei once again instructed prosecutors to show “no leniency” toward protesters. He further stated that authorities should even pursue individuals who have taken ambiguous or non-committal positions on the protests. At the same time, the head of Iran’s police announced that the crackdown has entered a new phase, while regime media reported widespread arrests in multiple cities. 9⃣ Despite widespread public outrage over the killing of protesters, the regime declared three days of public mourning for several of its own slain security personnel. In parallel, the Islamic Propaganda Coordination Council, the regime’s main propaganda body, called on regime supporters to gather tomorrow at 2:00 p.m., carrying Qurans and condemning the protesters. 🔟Internationally, as supportive statements from Donald Trump and Senator Lindsey Graham continue, some observers believe U.S. military action is becoming increasingly likely. Iranian activists, however, are calling for heavy strikes against the regime’s repressive institutions, urging Washington not to limit its response to symbolic actions. 11. Following yesterday’s revelations, a wave of condemnations from global politicians has emerged. Iranian diaspora activists argue that statements of concern are no longer sufficient, calling instead for concrete measures such as expelling regime diplomats, providing Starlink internet access to Iranians, and holding the regime accountable for crimes against humanity. 12. Outlook: The number of cities actively involved in protests has declined noticeably following the recent mass killings, and regime media are openly celebrating what they describe as a victory over the protesters. Nevertheless, significant gatherings continue in Tehran. As of this hour, no new call has been issued by Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi. It is likely that protests will persist in the coming days in certain areas, though in a more fragmented and localized form. The key question remains whether meaningful international intervention will shift the balance in favor of the Iranian people.

🚨It’s 2:30 a.m. in Tehran, and here are my 12 key observations from Day 15 of Iran’s protests (January 11): 1️⃣ On the fifteenth day of protests in Iran, following the fourth nationwide call by Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, demonstrations and strikes continued across multiple parts of the country. A strike by truck drivers and shopkeepers in Shiraz began on Sunday morning. At the same time, people took to the streets in several cities, including Tehran, Bandar Abbas, Abdanan, and Shahsavar. Crowd sizes in Tehran remain notable and significant, but smaller than yesterday. 2⃣ Late last night, Iran International confirmed that at least 2,000 people have been killed in Iran—a figure described as conservative. At the same time, horrifying new videos and images emerged showing families of the victims gathered at forensic medicine centers, with hundreds of bodies laid on the ground. The scale of the killings has plunged Iranian society into deep shock and collective mourning. 3⃣ Following the release of these images, regime state media and officials implicitly acknowledged the occurrence of mass killings—without providing figures—while attempting to deflect responsibility. They claimed the bodies were “left behind by rioters” and denied the government’s role. Simultaneously, President Masoud Pezeshkian, the regime’s so-called reformist president, alleged that protesters had beheaded people and burned them alive. 4⃣ Field reports indicate large gatherings in Tehran neighborhoods including Punok, Shahrak-e Beheshti, Saadat Abad, Ashrafi Esfahani, and Pirouzi. In Shahsavar, protesters lit fires and chanted “Javid Shah,” while heavy gunfire can be heard in multiple videos. In Abdanan, large crowds attended the funeral of one of the victims, chanting “Death to Khamenei.” 5⃣ Protests continued across Iran until around 2:00 a.m. This morning, new videos emerged from Behesht-e Zahra cemetery, where families chanted “Death to Khamenei” during burial ceremonies. Regime forces responded by attacking mourners with tear gas and paintball guns. Meanwhile, strikes by truck drivers and shopkeepers continued in Shiraz. In Tehran, protesters reportedly renamed a square from the name of Khomeini’s grandson to Pahlavi. 6⃣ Iran’s internet shutdown remains in place. According to NetBlocks, more than 72 hours after the blackout began, national connectivity is still at around 1% of normal levels. Due to the outage, information is emerging slowly and with delay, and very few reports are reaching the outside world from smaller cities. 7⃣ Coinciding with the fifteenth day of Iran’s national uprising, solidarity rallies by Iranians abroad continued in hundreds of cities across Europe, the United States, Canada, and elsewhere worldwide, in support of the Iranian people and Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi. These demonstrations, however, received limited coverage in major Western media outlets. 8⃣ Judiciary Chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei once again instructed prosecutors to show “no leniency” toward protesters. He further stated that authorities should even pursue individuals who have taken ambiguous or non-committal positions on the protests. At the same time, the head of Iran’s police announced that the crackdown has entered a new phase, while regime media reported widespread arrests in multiple cities. 9⃣ Despite widespread public outrage over the killing of protesters, the regime declared three days of public mourning for several of its own slain security personnel. In parallel, the Islamic Propaganda Coordination Council, the regime’s main propaganda body, called on regime supporters to gather tomorrow at 2:00 p.m., carrying Qurans and condemning the protesters. 🔟Internationally, as supportive statements from Donald Trump and Senator Lindsey Graham continue, some observers believe U.S. military action is becoming increasingly likely. Iranian activists, however, are calling for heavy strikes against the regime’s repressive institutions, urging Washington not to limit its response to symbolic actions. 11. Following yesterday’s revelations, a wave of condemnations from global politicians has emerged. Iranian diaspora activists argue that statements of concern are no longer sufficient, calling instead for concrete measures such as expelling regime diplomats, providing Starlink internet access to Iranians, and holding the regime accountable for crimes against humanity. 12. Outlook: The number of cities actively involved in protests has declined noticeably following the recent mass killings, and regime media are openly celebrating what they describe as a victory over the protesters. Nevertheless, significant gatherings continue in Tehran. As of this hour, no new call has been issued by Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi. It is likely that protests will persist in the coming days in certain areas, though in a more fragmented and localized form. The key question remains whether meaningful international intervention will shift the balance in favor of the Iranian people.

Navid Mohebbi نوید محبی

189,842 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

Iran war, day 89! Trump keeps breaching the ceasefire! Just how compromised is Oman? -4 American vessels, attempted to cross the SOH without coordinating with IRGC security forces -They were warned, and following their disregard, warning shots were fired at them, forcing them to turn back. -4 drones were fired as warning shots Meanwhile, Kosher media lies as usual and claims: -that IRGC fired 4 one-way drones at a U.S. commercial ship! -The U.S. military shot down all the drones and attacked another Iranian drone launching unit on the ground before it launched in Bandar Abbas, the official added -no mentions of the 4 invader vessels attempting to breach iran’s control of the SOH, and failing miserably! Per Reuters, the U.S. military has executed new strikes on an Iranian military facility that “posed a threat to U.S. forces and commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz”. -no mention of the U.S. military invasion of a sovereign territory. However, -U.S. official told CBS News the Iran ceasefire holds following tonight's strikes. -interesting how no accusation was made against Iran breaching the ceasefire despite kosher media’s bs claims. Analysis: The U.S. is testing out Iran’s ability to strike U.S. ships with limited breaches to gauge where Iran is striking from each time. Iran isn’t providing a predictable pattern and is sticking to its protocol of warnings, warning shots, and then on standby to escalate. Ynet Hebrew news on Iran’s demand for compensation: Tehran sets new conditions - the US must pay $300 billion in compensation! -Trump/Israel keep raising the price for a peace deal How is Trump’s bs blockade working out? Per WSJ: Despite the naval blockade, Iran continues to sell its oil! -The ship-to-ship transfer of oil in the middle of the sea reveals Iran's main strength and the main reason for its ability to resist US pressure for a long time. -Per the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Tehran earned about $31 billion in oil revenues from China last year. -this is conservative figure as most of sales are unaccounted for -The Chinese government explicitly ordered local companies not to comply with US sanctions against five Chinese refineries. And now Iran is selling its oil and maximum capacity, at higher prices. Pre war oil was at $70/b. It’s around $100/b. Trump did that! Nobody fears Trump’s bs blockade, sanctions and tariffs! Trump keeps barking anyway! Trump reserved the right to now wipe out Oman and finish off Iran! -I thought Iran was already beat according to Trump! As for Oman: Oman can be considered the most staunch supporter of the U.S. presence in the Persian Gulf region. The first military agreement between the two countries was signed in 1980. Currently, 26,000 American air force units are stationed on the territory of this Arab state. In addition, U.S. military aviation units assigned the private security firm DynCorp International to guard various parts of the base, including aircraft hangars, fuel storage, ammunition depots, automobiles, and administrative buildings. Oman hosts multiple US military bases: -the bases of the Navy in Rycote, Sit Lahsa and Muscat. -the U.S. air force bases are in al-Hasib, Siba, Markaz Tamarid, and masir. -the air force base in masir and the port of Matra are permanent bases of the US armed forces. -Oman hosts the command post of the US air force. -From American air bases in Oman, drones (UAVs) are periodically flown over the territories of many countries, up to Afghanistan. Iran for whatever reason trusted Oman as a mediator state at one time. Trump said he is not sure the U.S. should sign a deal to end the war with Iran if Saudi Arabia and other gulf slave states don't agree to join the Abraham Accords! They owe it to us he says! Kosher media calls out Netanyahu’s bs! "Haaretz" quoting an Israeli field officer: Netanyahu's claim of killing 600 Hezbollah fighters in recent weeks is laughable

Iran war, day 89! Trump keeps breaching the ceasefire! Just how compromised is Oman? -4 American vessels, attempted to cross the SOH without coordinating with IRGC security forces -They were warned, and following their disregard, warning shots were fired at them, forcing them to turn back. -4 drones were fired as warning shots Meanwhile, Kosher media lies as usual and claims: -that IRGC fired 4 one-way drones at a U.S. commercial ship! -The U.S. military shot down all the drones and attacked another Iranian drone launching unit on the ground before it launched in Bandar Abbas, the official added -no mentions of the 4 invader vessels attempting to breach iran’s control of the SOH, and failing miserably! Per Reuters, the U.S. military has executed new strikes on an Iranian military facility that “posed a threat to U.S. forces and commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz”. -no mention of the U.S. military invasion of a sovereign territory. However, -U.S. official told CBS News the Iran ceasefire holds following tonight's strikes. -interesting how no accusation was made against Iran breaching the ceasefire despite kosher media’s bs claims. Analysis: The U.S. is testing out Iran’s ability to strike U.S. ships with limited breaches to gauge where Iran is striking from each time. Iran isn’t providing a predictable pattern and is sticking to its protocol of warnings, warning shots, and then on standby to escalate. Ynet Hebrew news on Iran’s demand for compensation: Tehran sets new conditions - the US must pay $300 billion in compensation! -Trump/Israel keep raising the price for a peace deal How is Trump’s bs blockade working out? Per WSJ: Despite the naval blockade, Iran continues to sell its oil! -The ship-to-ship transfer of oil in the middle of the sea reveals Iran's main strength and the main reason for its ability to resist US pressure for a long time. -Per the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Tehran earned about $31 billion in oil revenues from China last year. -this is conservative figure as most of sales are unaccounted for -The Chinese government explicitly ordered local companies not to comply with US sanctions against five Chinese refineries. And now Iran is selling its oil and maximum capacity, at higher prices. Pre war oil was at $70/b. It’s around $100/b. Trump did that! Nobody fears Trump’s bs blockade, sanctions and tariffs! Trump keeps barking anyway! Trump reserved the right to now wipe out Oman and finish off Iran! -I thought Iran was already beat according to Trump! As for Oman: Oman can be considered the most staunch supporter of the U.S. presence in the Persian Gulf region. The first military agreement between the two countries was signed in 1980. Currently, 26,000 American air force units are stationed on the territory of this Arab state. In addition, U.S. military aviation units assigned the private security firm DynCorp International to guard various parts of the base, including aircraft hangars, fuel storage, ammunition depots, automobiles, and administrative buildings. Oman hosts multiple US military bases: -the bases of the Navy in Rycote, Sit Lahsa and Muscat. -the U.S. air force bases are in al-Hasib, Siba, Markaz Tamarid, and masir. -the air force base in masir and the port of Matra are permanent bases of the US armed forces. -Oman hosts the command post of the US air force. -From American air bases in Oman, drones (UAVs) are periodically flown over the territories of many countries, up to Afghanistan. Iran for whatever reason trusted Oman as a mediator state at one time. Trump said he is not sure the U.S. should sign a deal to end the war with Iran if Saudi Arabia and other gulf slave states don't agree to join the Abraham Accords! They owe it to us he says! Kosher media calls out Netanyahu’s bs! "Haaretz" quoting an Israeli field officer: Netanyahu's claim of killing 600 Hezbollah fighters in recent weeks is laughable

Truth_teller 🇷🇺

32,618 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🚨12 HOUR NEWS RECAP 1.⁠ T⁠rump left the G7 meeting in Canada early, returning to DC to deal with the escalating situation between Israel and Iran, stating: “It certainly has nothing to do with a Cease Fire. Much bigger than that.” 2.⁠ ⁠The Israeli Air Force intercepted around 30 drones launched overnight, all reportedly from Iran. Many were downed outside Israeli airspace, with several intercepted over the Golan Heights. 3.⁠ At least 2 ballistic missile impacts were reported in and around Tel Aviv. Emergency medical teams from Magen David Adom responded to the scenes to assess and treat possible injuries. 4.⁠ Iran claimed its missile strikes on Israel hit a military intelligence center and a Mossad operations planning site. Israeli reports confirmed a missile impact in Herzliya, describing it as a “sensitive site” - a term often used for military or strategic facilities. 5.⁠ U.S officials said that America has no plans to participate in Israel's military offensive against Iran, despite heightened diplomatic activity as Trump returned early from the G7 summit. 6.⁠ Iran announced a fresh wave of intensified missile attacks targeting Israel. Army Ground Forces Commander Kiomars Heidari said the strikes involve “new and advanced weapons” and will “intensify in the coming hours.” 7.⁠ Russia unleashed a massive 10-hour assault on Ukraine's capital overnight, killing at least 14 people including a 62-year-old American citizen, with over 40 injured. 8.⁠ China slammed Trump’s warning for Tehran residents to evacuate, accusing the U.S of worsening the Iran-Israel crisis. 9.⁠ G7 leaders, including Trump, issued a joint statement supporting Israel's right to defend itself while describing Iran as "the principal source of regional instability and terror" and declaring that Iran can never obtain nuclear weapons. 10.⁠ At least 51 Palestinians were killed and 200 wounded, reportedly by Israeli tank fire, while waiting for humanitarian aid in Khan Yunis, according to Gaza’s health ministry.

🚨12 HOUR NEWS RECAP 1.⁠ T⁠rump left the G7 meeting in Canada early, returning to DC to deal with the escalating situation between Israel and Iran, stating: “It certainly has nothing to do with a Cease Fire. Much bigger than that.” 2.⁠ ⁠The Israeli Air Force intercepted around 30 drones launched overnight, all reportedly from Iran. Many were downed outside Israeli airspace, with several intercepted over the Golan Heights. 3.⁠ At least 2 ballistic missile impacts were reported in and around Tel Aviv. Emergency medical teams from Magen David Adom responded to the scenes to assess and treat possible injuries. 4.⁠ Iran claimed its missile strikes on Israel hit a military intelligence center and a Mossad operations planning site. Israeli reports confirmed a missile impact in Herzliya, describing it as a “sensitive site” - a term often used for military or strategic facilities. 5.⁠ U.S officials said that America has no plans to participate in Israel's military offensive against Iran, despite heightened diplomatic activity as Trump returned early from the G7 summit. 6.⁠ Iran announced a fresh wave of intensified missile attacks targeting Israel. Army Ground Forces Commander Kiomars Heidari said the strikes involve “new and advanced weapons” and will “intensify in the coming hours.” 7.⁠ Russia unleashed a massive 10-hour assault on Ukraine's capital overnight, killing at least 14 people including a 62-year-old American citizen, with over 40 injured. 8.⁠ China slammed Trump’s warning for Tehran residents to evacuate, accusing the U.S of worsening the Iran-Israel crisis. 9.⁠ G7 leaders, including Trump, issued a joint statement supporting Israel's right to defend itself while describing Iran as "the principal source of regional instability and terror" and declaring that Iran can never obtain nuclear weapons. 10.⁠ At least 51 Palestinians were killed and 200 wounded, reportedly by Israeli tank fire, while waiting for humanitarian aid in Khan Yunis, according to Gaza’s health ministry.

Mario Nawfal

208,698 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

🚨 It’s 1:00 a.m. in Iran. Here are my 15 key observations from Day 12 of nationwide protests [January 8]: 1️⃣ The largest anti-regime protests of the Islamic Republic’s 47-year history unfolded on Day 12. When aggregated nationwide, turnout reached multi-million levels. 2️⃣ Since the unrest began, protests have been reported in at least 111 cities across all 31 provinces, underscoring the truly national scope of the uprising. 3️⃣ Today’s protests followed the first-ever direct call by Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, scheduled for 8:00 p.m. The response was widespread and visible across major cities. 4️⃣ Another nationwide call has already been issued for tomorrow at 8:00 p.m. Observers say the movement still has room to grow. 5️⃣ Analysts argue that the success of today’s call and dominant street slogans have effectively solidified Reza Pahlavi’s position as the central figure of the protests. 6️⃣ One of tonight’s largest demonstrations took place in Mashhad, Khamenei’s hometown and a city tightly controlled by his inner circle—a major symbolic blow. 7️⃣ In Tehran, protests expanded into more affluent neighborhoods like Vanak for the first time. Drivers joined in with continuous honking, while bazaar merchants went on strike in around 50 cities nationwide. 8️⃣ Student protests have erupted at 36 universities so far, with openly anti-regime slogans—an important escalation across generations. 9️⃣ Iranian human rights groups report at least 45 protesters killed, including 8 children, and hundreds injured. Yesterday alone saw 13 deaths, making it one of the bloodiest days so far. 🔟 Calls are growing—by both Iranian and non-Iranian activists—for world leaders to engage directly with Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, including renewed attention to a potential meeting with Donald Trump and the provision of resources to help him better lead the uprising. 11. Trump, in a recent interview, reiterated warnings to the regime and said of Pahlavi: “I’ve watched him, he seems like a nice person—but I’m not sure this is the right moment, as president, to do something like that.” 12. State media, while forced to acknowledge unrest, are pushing a narrative of “small crowds” and emphasizing alleged attacks on security forces—a pattern analysts warn may signal preparation for harsher repression. 13. Meanwhile, rare pro-regime gatherings were staged, alongside headlines declaring “the defeat of counter-revolutionaries”—widely seen as damage control. 14. Social media (Instagram) ahead of protests showed unprecedented public coordination and solidarity: shop closures announced in advance, emotional farewell messages, and strong virtual participation even from those unable to attend. 15. Outlook: Protests are expected to continue in the coming days—especially tomorrow. The movement’s success will hinge on the public’s ability to neutralize the Islamic Republic’s repressive apparatus. So far, the regime appears not to have deployed its full coercive capacity, relying instead on mass arrests and widespread injuries. If protests advance to the point of overrunning security and state institutions, the regime may resort to large-scale lethal violence. The role of Israel and the United States is crucial to the success of the protests. So far, there are no clear signs that the regime’s repressive apparatus is cracking.

🚨 It’s 1:00 a.m. in Iran. Here are my 15 key observations from Day 12 of nationwide protests [January 8]: 1️⃣ The largest anti-regime protests of the Islamic Republic’s 47-year history unfolded on Day 12. When aggregated nationwide, turnout reached multi-million levels. 2️⃣ Since the unrest began, protests have been reported in at least 111 cities across all 31 provinces, underscoring the truly national scope of the uprising. 3️⃣ Today’s protests followed the first-ever direct call by Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, scheduled for 8:00 p.m. The response was widespread and visible across major cities. 4️⃣ Another nationwide call has already been issued for tomorrow at 8:00 p.m. Observers say the movement still has room to grow. 5️⃣ Analysts argue that the success of today’s call and dominant street slogans have effectively solidified Reza Pahlavi’s position as the central figure of the protests. 6️⃣ One of tonight’s largest demonstrations took place in Mashhad, Khamenei’s hometown and a city tightly controlled by his inner circle—a major symbolic blow. 7️⃣ In Tehran, protests expanded into more affluent neighborhoods like Vanak for the first time. Drivers joined in with continuous honking, while bazaar merchants went on strike in around 50 cities nationwide. 8️⃣ Student protests have erupted at 36 universities so far, with openly anti-regime slogans—an important escalation across generations. 9️⃣ Iranian human rights groups report at least 45 protesters killed, including 8 children, and hundreds injured. Yesterday alone saw 13 deaths, making it one of the bloodiest days so far. 🔟 Calls are growing—by both Iranian and non-Iranian activists—for world leaders to engage directly with Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, including renewed attention to a potential meeting with Donald Trump and the provision of resources to help him better lead the uprising. 11. Trump, in a recent interview, reiterated warnings to the regime and said of Pahlavi: “I’ve watched him, he seems like a nice person—but I’m not sure this is the right moment, as president, to do something like that.” 12. State media, while forced to acknowledge unrest, are pushing a narrative of “small crowds” and emphasizing alleged attacks on security forces—a pattern analysts warn may signal preparation for harsher repression. 13. Meanwhile, rare pro-regime gatherings were staged, alongside headlines declaring “the defeat of counter-revolutionaries”—widely seen as damage control. 14. Social media (Instagram) ahead of protests showed unprecedented public coordination and solidarity: shop closures announced in advance, emotional farewell messages, and strong virtual participation even from those unable to attend. 15. Outlook: Protests are expected to continue in the coming days—especially tomorrow. The movement’s success will hinge on the public’s ability to neutralize the Islamic Republic’s repressive apparatus. So far, the regime appears not to have deployed its full coercive capacity, relying instead on mass arrests and widespread injuries. If protests advance to the point of overrunning security and state institutions, the regime may resort to large-scale lethal violence. The role of Israel and the United States is crucial to the success of the protests. So far, there are no clear signs that the regime’s repressive apparatus is cracking.

Navid Mohebbi نوید محبی

266,894 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

Developments in the Iran-Israel war. It is currently 1:11am in Tel Aviv and 1:42am in Tehran. Main points: Iran and Israel have started targeting each other’s energy infrastructure. Iranian missiles continued to target and impact northern and central Israel. Israel has started targeting Iranian oil infrastructure, including oil refineries and oil depots. Israeli airstrikes continue to target various parts of Tehran and the surrounding areas. Iranian air defence seems to finally be doing some damage to Israeli missiles and drones. In turn, Israel has deployed dozens of small quadcopters and loitering munitions to waste Iranian air defence and saturate for larger attacks with cruise missiles. Drones launched from Iran and factions in Iraq continue to target northern and southern Israel. Missiles & drones: 2 rockets were launched from the Khan Younis area of southern Gaza by an unknown Palestinian faction. Neither were intercepted, with the IDF claiming they hit an open area with no casualties. 2 rockets were launched from Gaza, both of which impacted an unspecified section of the Gaza buffer zone. They were either targeting IDF troops, or malfunctioned mid-flight. The IDF claimed to have intercepted 2 drones, launched by either Iran or factions in Iraq, in the area of Kiryat Shmona, northeastern Israel. Consequences: Israeli outlet Haaretz confirms that 30 Iranian ballistic missiles impacted military bases across Israel, including 10 in Tel Aviv. This was at around 7am local time in Israel, prior to more missile impacts in the north of the country. Iranian ballistic missiles impacted Haifa and Tamra, targeting the Haifa Oil Refinery Israeli airstrikes and drones targeted various targets around Tehran including a central oil depot. Footage shows what appears to be wreckage of a shot down Israeli F-16 somewhere over Iran. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian claims that Iran shot down an Israeli F-35 fighter jet. Israeli airstrikes targeted Iran’s Bushehr Port. IDF spokesperson claimed that 7 IDF soldiers were “slightly” wounded Friday night in an Iranian ballistic missile strike on central Israel. Israeli airstrikes targeted the Yemen capital of Sana’a, reportedly killing the commander-in-chief of the Houthis. This remains unconfirmed. Al Jazeera, citing a senior Iranian official, stated that Iran is preparing for an “ongoing” confrontation with Israel, and will escalate its attacks. The head of Israel’s domestic intelligence announced his resignation, citing the failure to stop Hamas’ October 7 attacks. The IDF claimed to have killed the head of Iran’s military Intelligence, as well as the commander of the surface-to-surface missile sector. Israeli MDA spokesperson stated that 3 people have been killed and 172 others (directly) wounded. Iranian intelligence claims to have arrested 16 Mossad-affiliated collaborators and spies across Iran, The IAEA stated that 4 "critical" buildings were damaged at the Isfahan Nuclear Technology/Research Center in central Iran, including the Uranium Conversion Facility and the Fuel Plate Fabrication Plant. They added that no increase in off-site radiation is expected at the Natanz Nuclear enrichment facility after significant Israeli airstrikes, including with bunker-busting bombs. The current home-front guidelines remain in place for all of Israel, including a ban on all educational activities and large gatherings, except for essential services. Regional developments: Trump stated that “The war between Iran and Israel must end”. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated that new military assets are being transferred to the Middle East, including aircraft, for “contingency support”. Iran’s foreign ministry confirmed that Iran will not participate in nuclear talks with the U.S. on Sunday, stating that “Participating in talks with accomplices of the aggressor is pointless.” Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Shariz expressed his “unwavering support” to Iran in a phone call with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.

Developments in the Iran-Israel war. It is currently 1:11am in Tel Aviv and 1:42am in Tehran. Main points: Iran and Israel have started targeting each other’s energy infrastructure. Iranian missiles continued to target and impact northern and central Israel. Israel has started targeting Iranian oil infrastructure, including oil refineries and oil depots. Israeli airstrikes continue to target various parts of Tehran and the surrounding areas. Iranian air defence seems to finally be doing some damage to Israeli missiles and drones. In turn, Israel has deployed dozens of small quadcopters and loitering munitions to waste Iranian air defence and saturate for larger attacks with cruise missiles. Drones launched from Iran and factions in Iraq continue to target northern and southern Israel. Missiles & drones: 2 rockets were launched from the Khan Younis area of southern Gaza by an unknown Palestinian faction. Neither were intercepted, with the IDF claiming they hit an open area with no casualties. 2 rockets were launched from Gaza, both of which impacted an unspecified section of the Gaza buffer zone. They were either targeting IDF troops, or malfunctioned mid-flight. The IDF claimed to have intercepted 2 drones, launched by either Iran or factions in Iraq, in the area of Kiryat Shmona, northeastern Israel. Consequences: Israeli outlet Haaretz confirms that 30 Iranian ballistic missiles impacted military bases across Israel, including 10 in Tel Aviv. This was at around 7am local time in Israel, prior to more missile impacts in the north of the country. Iranian ballistic missiles impacted Haifa and Tamra, targeting the Haifa Oil Refinery Israeli airstrikes and drones targeted various targets around Tehran including a central oil depot. Footage shows what appears to be wreckage of a shot down Israeli F-16 somewhere over Iran. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian claims that Iran shot down an Israeli F-35 fighter jet. Israeli airstrikes targeted Iran’s Bushehr Port. IDF spokesperson claimed that 7 IDF soldiers were “slightly” wounded Friday night in an Iranian ballistic missile strike on central Israel. Israeli airstrikes targeted the Yemen capital of Sana’a, reportedly killing the commander-in-chief of the Houthis. This remains unconfirmed. Al Jazeera, citing a senior Iranian official, stated that Iran is preparing for an “ongoing” confrontation with Israel, and will escalate its attacks. The head of Israel’s domestic intelligence announced his resignation, citing the failure to stop Hamas’ October 7 attacks. The IDF claimed to have killed the head of Iran’s military Intelligence, as well as the commander of the surface-to-surface missile sector. Israeli MDA spokesperson stated that 3 people have been killed and 172 others (directly) wounded. Iranian intelligence claims to have arrested 16 Mossad-affiliated collaborators and spies across Iran, The IAEA stated that 4 "critical" buildings were damaged at the Isfahan Nuclear Technology/Research Center in central Iran, including the Uranium Conversion Facility and the Fuel Plate Fabrication Plant. They added that no increase in off-site radiation is expected at the Natanz Nuclear enrichment facility after significant Israeli airstrikes, including with bunker-busting bombs. The current home-front guidelines remain in place for all of Israel, including a ban on all educational activities and large gatherings, except for essential services. Regional developments: Trump stated that “The war between Iran and Israel must end”. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated that new military assets are being transferred to the Middle East, including aircraft, for “contingency support”. Iran’s foreign ministry confirmed that Iran will not participate in nuclear talks with the U.S. on Sunday, stating that “Participating in talks with accomplices of the aggressor is pointless.” Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Shariz expressed his “unwavering support” to Iran in a phone call with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.

AMK Mapping 🇳🇿

38,923 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

Here's what you missed over the weekend in the ongoing conflict in Iran. Get caught up below👇 🚨 OPERATIONAL UPDATE: ISRAEL U.S. WAR WITH THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC - Reporting Window: 3/27 - 3/30 *⃣ Israel sustained a wide strike campaign inside Tehran, targeting missile production, air defense systems, and core regime infrastructure in the capital. *⃣ The IAEA confirmed Iran’s Khondab heavy water facility at Arak is no longer operational after Israeli strikes, marking one of the clearest verified hits to nuclear-linked infrastructure. *⃣ Iran continued missile attacks into Israel, including impacts near the Neot Hovav industrial zone that caused fires and industrial disruption without mass casualties. *⃣ The Houthis in Yemen officially entered the war, launching ballistic missiles and drones toward Israel and signaling continued attacks. *⃣ The Gulf front intensified, with damage to infrastructure in Kuwait and sustained pressure tied to the Strait of Hormuz and regional energy systems. *⃣ The United States is now weighing escalation options tied to Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile while maintaining a public posture of diplomacy. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ✈️ STRATEGIC AIR CAMPAIGN OVER IRAN Israel’s campaign seems to have shifted from targeting regime objectives and symbols, like Basij headquarters, to industrial and military complex infrastructure. This is likely due to a prioritization to degrade the long term capabilities of the regime should the conflict end before regime change objectives can be achieved. Sustained strikes across Tehran, combined with the confirmed disabling of the Arak heavy water facility, show a shift toward dismantling Iran’s military and nuclear backbone. This is now a campaign against production, command, and regeneration capacity. Power disruptions and secondary infrastructure damage across Tehran reinforce that this is expanding beyond military sites into the broader ecosystem that sustains the regime’s ability to fight. This is not a temporary degradation effort. It is structural. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🚀 IRANIAN ATTACKS ON ISRAEL Iran is still firing. But the pattern has changed. Missile attacks continue across Israel, including impacts in the south and repeated alerts across multiple regions. The strike near Neot Hovav fits the current model: disruption, not mass casualties. Launch tempo is down significantly from earlier phases, but the capability remains intact. What matters now is not volume. It’s persistence. Iran can still impose pressure. It just can’t dominate the battlefield in any meaningful way. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🟥 YEMEN FRONT: HOUTHIS ENTER THE WAR The Houthis officially joined the war on March 28, launching ballistic missiles toward Israel for the first time in this conflict and signaling continued operations going forward. Since then additional drone launches toward Israel have been reported and intercepted. The group has framed its attacks as part of a unified “resistance front” alongside Iran, Hezbollah, and Iraqi militias. This matters for three reasons: 1. Range and geography - Yemen is over 2,000 km away. These are long-range strikes that stretch Israel’s defensive envelope. 2. Multi-front pressure - Israel is now dealing with Iran (direct), Hezbollah (north), Houthis (south / long-range). That is a true multi-front war. 3. Escalation pathway - The Houthis are not limited to Israel. They sit on the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, one of the most critical shipping chokepoints in the world. If they escalate there, it links directly with Hormuz. This could even further choke critical shipping lanes in the global economy. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🌍 GULF / HORMUZ / ENERGY WAR Iran is now fully leaning into economic warfare. Confirmed damage to infrastructure in Kuwait, combined with continued disruption around Hormuz, shows a deliberate strategy: expand the cost of the war beyond Israel. This is not incidental escalation. It is strategic leverage. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🇺🇸 POLITICAL / STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENTS The United States is now the pivot. The public posture is diplomacy and de-escalation messaging. The operational reality is that troop deployments are increasing, escalation planning is underway, and uranium-targeting scenarios are under consideration. At the same time, Iran is not signaling compromise. It is mobilizing, expanding proxy activity, and behaving like a regime preparing for a longer war and signaling it can outwait it's adversaries. That gap is now one of the most important dynamics in the conflict. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📌 WHAT MATTERS MOST RIGHT NOW ➡️ Israel is systematically dismantling Iran’s military and nuclear-supporting infrastructure, with Tehran now a primary focus. ➡️ Iran still has strike capability, but its attacks are increasingly intermittent but now beginning to be supplemented by proxy fronts in Lebanon and Yemen. ➡️ The Gulf and global energy system are a growing target for the IRGC's war trajectory. ➡️ The United States is positioned between diplomacy and escalation, with the ability to decisively shift the war if it acts. Bottom line, this is no longer just Israel vs Iran. It is now: Iran, Hezbollah, Houthis VS the US, Israel, Gulf States, and the global economy.

Here's what you missed over the weekend in the ongoing conflict in Iran. Get caught up below👇 🚨 OPERATIONAL UPDATE: ISRAEL U.S. WAR WITH THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC - Reporting Window: 3/27 - 3/30 ⃣ Israel sustained a wide strike campaign inside Tehran, targeting missile production, air defense systems, and core regime infrastructure in the capital. ⃣ The IAEA confirmed Iran’s Khondab heavy water facility at Arak is no longer operational after Israeli strikes, marking one of the clearest verified hits to nuclear-linked infrastructure. ⃣ Iran continued missile attacks into Israel, including impacts near the Neot Hovav industrial zone that caused fires and industrial disruption without mass casualties. ⃣ The Houthis in Yemen officially entered the war, launching ballistic missiles and drones toward Israel and signaling continued attacks. ⃣ The Gulf front intensified, with damage to infrastructure in Kuwait and sustained pressure tied to the Strait of Hormuz and regional energy systems. ⃣ The United States is now weighing escalation options tied to Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile while maintaining a public posture of diplomacy. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ✈️ STRATEGIC AIR CAMPAIGN OVER IRAN Israel’s campaign seems to have shifted from targeting regime objectives and symbols, like Basij headquarters, to industrial and military complex infrastructure. This is likely due to a prioritization to degrade the long term capabilities of the regime should the conflict end before regime change objectives can be achieved. Sustained strikes across Tehran, combined with the confirmed disabling of the Arak heavy water facility, show a shift toward dismantling Iran’s military and nuclear backbone. This is now a campaign against production, command, and regeneration capacity. Power disruptions and secondary infrastructure damage across Tehran reinforce that this is expanding beyond military sites into the broader ecosystem that sustains the regime’s ability to fight. This is not a temporary degradation effort. It is structural. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🚀 IRANIAN ATTACKS ON ISRAEL Iran is still firing. But the pattern has changed. Missile attacks continue across Israel, including impacts in the south and repeated alerts across multiple regions. The strike near Neot Hovav fits the current model: disruption, not mass casualties. Launch tempo is down significantly from earlier phases, but the capability remains intact. What matters now is not volume. It’s persistence. Iran can still impose pressure. It just can’t dominate the battlefield in any meaningful way. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🟥 YEMEN FRONT: HOUTHIS ENTER THE WAR The Houthis officially joined the war on March 28, launching ballistic missiles toward Israel for the first time in this conflict and signaling continued operations going forward. Since then additional drone launches toward Israel have been reported and intercepted. The group has framed its attacks as part of a unified “resistance front” alongside Iran, Hezbollah, and Iraqi militias. This matters for three reasons: 1. Range and geography - Yemen is over 2,000 km away. These are long-range strikes that stretch Israel’s defensive envelope. 2. Multi-front pressure - Israel is now dealing with Iran (direct), Hezbollah (north), Houthis (south / long-range). That is a true multi-front war. 3. Escalation pathway - The Houthis are not limited to Israel. They sit on the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, one of the most critical shipping chokepoints in the world. If they escalate there, it links directly with Hormuz. This could even further choke critical shipping lanes in the global economy. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🌍 GULF / HORMUZ / ENERGY WAR Iran is now fully leaning into economic warfare. Confirmed damage to infrastructure in Kuwait, combined with continued disruption around Hormuz, shows a deliberate strategy: expand the cost of the war beyond Israel. This is not incidental escalation. It is strategic leverage. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🇺🇸 POLITICAL / STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENTS The United States is now the pivot. The public posture is diplomacy and de-escalation messaging. The operational reality is that troop deployments are increasing, escalation planning is underway, and uranium-targeting scenarios are under consideration. At the same time, Iran is not signaling compromise. It is mobilizing, expanding proxy activity, and behaving like a regime preparing for a longer war and signaling it can outwait it's adversaries. That gap is now one of the most important dynamics in the conflict. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📌 WHAT MATTERS MOST RIGHT NOW ➡️ Israel is systematically dismantling Iran’s military and nuclear-supporting infrastructure, with Tehran now a primary focus. ➡️ Iran still has strike capability, but its attacks are increasingly intermittent but now beginning to be supplemented by proxy fronts in Lebanon and Yemen. ➡️ The Gulf and global energy system are a growing target for the IRGC's war trajectory. ➡️ The United States is positioned between diplomacy and escalation, with the ability to decisively shift the war if it acts. Bottom line, this is no longer just Israel vs Iran. It is now: Iran, Hezbollah, Houthis VS the US, Israel, Gulf States, and the global economy.

Inside_Israel_Intel

39,012 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

🚨 OPERATIONAL UPDATE: ISRAEL U.S. WAR WITH THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC - Reporting Window: LAST 24 HOURS • Iran widened its fire again with a broad evening missile barrage on central Israel and continued attacks across the Gulf, including a drone strike that hit a fuel tank at Kuwait International Airport • Israel intensified strikes across Iran, with reported hits in Tehran, Qazvin and Alborz industrial areas, plus continued pressure on missile infrastructure and launch cells • Hezbollah kept the northern front active, including a direct rocket hit on a building in Kiryat Shmona, while Israel deepened its Lebanon campaign and Katz publicly framed the objective as a security zone up to the Litani • The diplomatic track moved forward, but only in the strangest possible way: Trump says talks are progressing, Iran still publicly denies direct negotiations, and multiple reports now point to JD Vance as Tehran’s preferred American interlocutor • The big picture is unchanged: the war is still live on every major front, but the center of gravity is shifting toward a contest over how it ends, who gets to define victory, and whether the Gulf will stay adjacent to the war or be pulled fully into it The most important thing to understand about the last 24 hours is that this was not a quiet period masked by negotiations. It was the opposite. The battlefield remained active from Tehran to southern Lebanon to Kuwait, even as Washington and Tehran edged further into a murky negotiation channel. That is what gives the last day its character: not de escalation, but simultaneous escalation and diplomacy, both moving at once. Open source reporting reflects the same picture, with repeated indications of strikes in Tehran and Qazvin, attacks near Baghdad airport, a Kuwait airport fuel fire, and a large Iranian barrage toward central Israel late in the window. **Special thanks to Michael W for your continued contribution to the open-source intel picture behind these updates. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🚀 IRANIAN MISSILE FIRE ON ISRAEL Iran kept up the pressure on Israel in two different ways over this window. Earlier in the cycle, a cluster warhead strike wounded nine people in Bnei Brak, with additional damage in Petah Tikva, while Hezbollah fire from Lebanon killed a woman near Mahanayim Junction and wounded several more in Kiryat Shmona. Later, near the end of the reporting window, Iran launched another broad barrage toward central Israel, with warnings stretching across Gush Dan, Sharon, Wadi Ara, Samaria, Judea and the Dead Sea region. Open source reporting you provided tracked that second wave in real time, showing how broad the alert footprint was even though initial reports indicated no immediate casualties from that specific evening barrage. This is what stands out operationally: Iran’s missile campaign is not gone, but it looks increasingly built around selective disruption rather than the huge opening barrages of the war. The salvos are still dangerous, still capable of civilian casualties and still capable of producing visually dramatic and politically effective moments, but they are landing against a backdrop of steadily intensifying strikes on Iran’s launch network. That makes each successful hit feel more deliberate and more strategic. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ✈️ THE AIR CAMPAIGN OVER IRAN KEPT MOVING Israel’s strike campaign inside Iran also remained broad and geographically layered. Reuters reported renewed Israeli strikes as talks were being floated through intermediaries. Open source intelligence adds texture to that by showing repeated reporting from open source channels of impacts in eastern and western Tehran, the Alborz industrial zone in Qazvin province, and additional blasts reported across Khuzestan and other regions. There were also repeated reports of targeted assassination attempts in east Tehran, which fits the broader pattern of not just degrading launchers and production nodes, but also hunting the people tied to them. The color here matters. This no longer looks like a campaign limited to air defenses and obvious military compounds. The picture from the last 24 hours is of a system being pressed from multiple angles at once: missile depots, industrial support zones, launch crews, command elements and regime infrastructure in and around Tehran. Open source reporting reinforces that sense of breadth, especially the repeated references to Qazvin and Alborz secondary explosions and to ongoing heavy activity over Tehran. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚡ THE ENERGY WAR IS STILL HOT The clearest new regional energy development in this window was Kuwait. Reuters reported that a drone attack hit a fuel tank at Kuwait International Airport, causing a fire but no casualties. That matters not because the material damage was catastrophic, but because it again shows Iran or Iran aligned actors reaching directly for civilian and logistical energy infrastructure in Gulf states. This was not an abstract threat anymore. It was a live strike on a functioning international hub. Your outbox tracked the same event quickly and repeatedly, alongside additional open source reporting about nearby attacks and power disruptions in Kuwait. At the same time, the diplomatic and military discussion around the Strait of Hormuz kept shaping everything else. Markets moved on talk of a U.S. proposal and possible hosted talks in Pakistan or Turkey. Oil eased on negotiation optimism, but the underlying structure of the crisis remains the same: Iran still retains the ability to disrupt shipping and energy confidence without fully “closing” the Strait in a formal sense. That is why even modest signs of diplomacy can move oil sharply, and why even a localized drone strike in Kuwait still carries outsized weight. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🇱🇧 LEBANON IS NOT A SIDESHOW The northern front kept boiling. Reuters reported that Israel now intends to occupy a swathe of southern Lebanon up to the Litani River, with Defense Minister Israel Katz explicitly describing a “security zone” concept. That is not rhetoric you use if you still think this is a short punitive phase. At the tactical level, Hezbollah continued to demonstrate that it can still impose costs, including a direct rocket hit on a building in Kiryat Shmona and earlier casualties in the north. Meanwhile, open source reporting pointed to Israeli strikes in Nabatieh, Rashidiya, Bchamoun and broader southern Lebanese infrastructure, which matches the picture of sustained pressure rather than episodic retaliation. The broader meaning is straightforward. Israel is signaling that if the Iran war ends inconclusively on the Iranian front, it does not intend to leave Hezbollah’s northern threat structure intact and simply hope for the best. Lebanon is being shaped now as part of the endgame, not just the current fight. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🇮🇶 IRAQ STAYED ACTIVE TOO Iraq remained active in the background, but it should not be treated as background noise. Open source intel reporting includes repeated reporting on a targeted U.S. strike on a vehicle near Baghdad airport and continued militia related activity tied to U.S. positions and proxy structures. That comes after the prior cycle’s major strikes on PMF and militia command nodes. It fits the larger pattern we have now seen for weeks: Iraq is not the main theater, but it is still one of the places where the war keeps trying to widen horizontally. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🌍 THE NEGOTIATION TRACK GOT STRANGER, NOT CLEARER Trump is still publicly presenting the talks as real progress. Reuters reports that Pakistan conveyed a U.S. proposal, with Pakistan or Turkey possible venues, and that Washington has floated a broader framework dealing with nuclear capability, missiles and proxies. At the same time, Iran continues to publicly deny meaningful direct talks and has toughened its public stance, insisting on guarantees, compensation and no rollback of its missile deterrent. What makes the last 24 hours more interesting is the growing focus on who would even talk for the United States. Times of Israel and Jerusalem Post reporting both indicate that JD Vance is increasingly central to the diplomacy, with Tehran reportedly preferring him over Witkoff and Kushner. The diplomatic track here appears as both real and deeply unstable, with questions about who on the Iranian side actually holds authority and whether Washington is now seeking an end state short of outright regime collapse. That shift matters because it tells us something important: Washington increasingly seems to be searching for an off ramp that still looks like victory, while Israel and Gulf allies appear much less comfortable with ending this war before Iran’s military and proxy architecture are degraded further. That tension is now one of the defining features of the conflict. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📌 WHAT MATTERS MOST RIGHT NOW 1️⃣ The war is still fully active across multiple fronts Iran hit central Israel again, Kuwait airport was struck, Lebanon stayed hot and Israel kept pounding targets inside Iran. Negotiations did not replace combat. They were layered on top of it. 2️⃣ The pressure on Iran’s internal military system keeps deepening The accumulating pattern of strikes in Tehran, Qazvin, Alborz and other areas suggests a campaign that is still broadening the target set, not narrowing it. Open source reporting in your files strongly supports that picture. 3️⃣ The diplomatic track is real, but it is not clean Trump is selling progress. Iran is denying direct talks. Vance is becoming more central. And nobody looking at the battlefield would conclude that the war is genuinely close to stopping on its own. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ BOTTOM LINE The last 24 hours painted a clearer picture than some of the recent reporting windows. This is no longer just a war of salvos and counterstrikes. It is now a war over end states. Iran is still trying to prove it can widen the cost map, not just hit Israel but keep the Gulf under pressure too. Israel is still trying to prove that sustained, system level degradation inside Iran can continue even while diplomacy swirls overhead. And Washington is trying to find a formula that can stop the war without looking like it backed down. That is why the reporting feels different now. The battlefield is still violent, but the arguments over how this ends are becoming just as important as the strikes themselves.

🚨 OPERATIONAL UPDATE: ISRAEL U.S. WAR WITH THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC - Reporting Window: LAST 24 HOURS • Iran widened its fire again with a broad evening missile barrage on central Israel and continued attacks across the Gulf, including a drone strike that hit a fuel tank at Kuwait International Airport • Israel intensified strikes across Iran, with reported hits in Tehran, Qazvin and Alborz industrial areas, plus continued pressure on missile infrastructure and launch cells • Hezbollah kept the northern front active, including a direct rocket hit on a building in Kiryat Shmona, while Israel deepened its Lebanon campaign and Katz publicly framed the objective as a security zone up to the Litani • The diplomatic track moved forward, but only in the strangest possible way: Trump says talks are progressing, Iran still publicly denies direct negotiations, and multiple reports now point to JD Vance as Tehran’s preferred American interlocutor • The big picture is unchanged: the war is still live on every major front, but the center of gravity is shifting toward a contest over how it ends, who gets to define victory, and whether the Gulf will stay adjacent to the war or be pulled fully into it The most important thing to understand about the last 24 hours is that this was not a quiet period masked by negotiations. It was the opposite. The battlefield remained active from Tehran to southern Lebanon to Kuwait, even as Washington and Tehran edged further into a murky negotiation channel. That is what gives the last day its character: not de escalation, but simultaneous escalation and diplomacy, both moving at once. Open source reporting reflects the same picture, with repeated indications of strikes in Tehran and Qazvin, attacks near Baghdad airport, a Kuwait airport fuel fire, and a large Iranian barrage toward central Israel late in the window. **Special thanks to Michael W for your continued contribution to the open-source intel picture behind these updates. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🚀 IRANIAN MISSILE FIRE ON ISRAEL Iran kept up the pressure on Israel in two different ways over this window. Earlier in the cycle, a cluster warhead strike wounded nine people in Bnei Brak, with additional damage in Petah Tikva, while Hezbollah fire from Lebanon killed a woman near Mahanayim Junction and wounded several more in Kiryat Shmona. Later, near the end of the reporting window, Iran launched another broad barrage toward central Israel, with warnings stretching across Gush Dan, Sharon, Wadi Ara, Samaria, Judea and the Dead Sea region. Open source reporting you provided tracked that second wave in real time, showing how broad the alert footprint was even though initial reports indicated no immediate casualties from that specific evening barrage. This is what stands out operationally: Iran’s missile campaign is not gone, but it looks increasingly built around selective disruption rather than the huge opening barrages of the war. The salvos are still dangerous, still capable of civilian casualties and still capable of producing visually dramatic and politically effective moments, but they are landing against a backdrop of steadily intensifying strikes on Iran’s launch network. That makes each successful hit feel more deliberate and more strategic. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ✈️ THE AIR CAMPAIGN OVER IRAN KEPT MOVING Israel’s strike campaign inside Iran also remained broad and geographically layered. Reuters reported renewed Israeli strikes as talks were being floated through intermediaries. Open source intelligence adds texture to that by showing repeated reporting from open source channels of impacts in eastern and western Tehran, the Alborz industrial zone in Qazvin province, and additional blasts reported across Khuzestan and other regions. There were also repeated reports of targeted assassination attempts in east Tehran, which fits the broader pattern of not just degrading launchers and production nodes, but also hunting the people tied to them. The color here matters. This no longer looks like a campaign limited to air defenses and obvious military compounds. The picture from the last 24 hours is of a system being pressed from multiple angles at once: missile depots, industrial support zones, launch crews, command elements and regime infrastructure in and around Tehran. Open source reporting reinforces that sense of breadth, especially the repeated references to Qazvin and Alborz secondary explosions and to ongoing heavy activity over Tehran. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚡ THE ENERGY WAR IS STILL HOT The clearest new regional energy development in this window was Kuwait. Reuters reported that a drone attack hit a fuel tank at Kuwait International Airport, causing a fire but no casualties. That matters not because the material damage was catastrophic, but because it again shows Iran or Iran aligned actors reaching directly for civilian and logistical energy infrastructure in Gulf states. This was not an abstract threat anymore. It was a live strike on a functioning international hub. Your outbox tracked the same event quickly and repeatedly, alongside additional open source reporting about nearby attacks and power disruptions in Kuwait. At the same time, the diplomatic and military discussion around the Strait of Hormuz kept shaping everything else. Markets moved on talk of a U.S. proposal and possible hosted talks in Pakistan or Turkey. Oil eased on negotiation optimism, but the underlying structure of the crisis remains the same: Iran still retains the ability to disrupt shipping and energy confidence without fully “closing” the Strait in a formal sense. That is why even modest signs of diplomacy can move oil sharply, and why even a localized drone strike in Kuwait still carries outsized weight. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🇱🇧 LEBANON IS NOT A SIDESHOW The northern front kept boiling. Reuters reported that Israel now intends to occupy a swathe of southern Lebanon up to the Litani River, with Defense Minister Israel Katz explicitly describing a “security zone” concept. That is not rhetoric you use if you still think this is a short punitive phase. At the tactical level, Hezbollah continued to demonstrate that it can still impose costs, including a direct rocket hit on a building in Kiryat Shmona and earlier casualties in the north. Meanwhile, open source reporting pointed to Israeli strikes in Nabatieh, Rashidiya, Bchamoun and broader southern Lebanese infrastructure, which matches the picture of sustained pressure rather than episodic retaliation. The broader meaning is straightforward. Israel is signaling that if the Iran war ends inconclusively on the Iranian front, it does not intend to leave Hezbollah’s northern threat structure intact and simply hope for the best. Lebanon is being shaped now as part of the endgame, not just the current fight. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🇮🇶 IRAQ STAYED ACTIVE TOO Iraq remained active in the background, but it should not be treated as background noise. Open source intel reporting includes repeated reporting on a targeted U.S. strike on a vehicle near Baghdad airport and continued militia related activity tied to U.S. positions and proxy structures. That comes after the prior cycle’s major strikes on PMF and militia command nodes. It fits the larger pattern we have now seen for weeks: Iraq is not the main theater, but it is still one of the places where the war keeps trying to widen horizontally. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🌍 THE NEGOTIATION TRACK GOT STRANGER, NOT CLEARER Trump is still publicly presenting the talks as real progress. Reuters reports that Pakistan conveyed a U.S. proposal, with Pakistan or Turkey possible venues, and that Washington has floated a broader framework dealing with nuclear capability, missiles and proxies. At the same time, Iran continues to publicly deny meaningful direct talks and has toughened its public stance, insisting on guarantees, compensation and no rollback of its missile deterrent. What makes the last 24 hours more interesting is the growing focus on who would even talk for the United States. Times of Israel and Jerusalem Post reporting both indicate that JD Vance is increasingly central to the diplomacy, with Tehran reportedly preferring him over Witkoff and Kushner. The diplomatic track here appears as both real and deeply unstable, with questions about who on the Iranian side actually holds authority and whether Washington is now seeking an end state short of outright regime collapse. That shift matters because it tells us something important: Washington increasingly seems to be searching for an off ramp that still looks like victory, while Israel and Gulf allies appear much less comfortable with ending this war before Iran’s military and proxy architecture are degraded further. That tension is now one of the defining features of the conflict. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📌 WHAT MATTERS MOST RIGHT NOW 1️⃣ The war is still fully active across multiple fronts Iran hit central Israel again, Kuwait airport was struck, Lebanon stayed hot and Israel kept pounding targets inside Iran. Negotiations did not replace combat. They were layered on top of it. 2️⃣ The pressure on Iran’s internal military system keeps deepening The accumulating pattern of strikes in Tehran, Qazvin, Alborz and other areas suggests a campaign that is still broadening the target set, not narrowing it. Open source reporting in your files strongly supports that picture. 3️⃣ The diplomatic track is real, but it is not clean Trump is selling progress. Iran is denying direct talks. Vance is becoming more central. And nobody looking at the battlefield would conclude that the war is genuinely close to stopping on its own. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ BOTTOM LINE The last 24 hours painted a clearer picture than some of the recent reporting windows. This is no longer just a war of salvos and counterstrikes. It is now a war over end states. Iran is still trying to prove it can widen the cost map, not just hit Israel but keep the Gulf under pressure too. Israel is still trying to prove that sustained, system level degradation inside Iran can continue even while diplomacy swirls overhead. And Washington is trying to find a formula that can stop the war without looking like it backed down. That is why the reporting feels different now. The battlefield is still violent, but the arguments over how this ends are becoming just as important as the strikes themselves.

Inside_Israel_Intel

23,818 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

Iran just fired missiles at five countries simultaneously. Here is what actually happened to each of them. Bahrain. Confirmed hit on the US Navy Fifth Fleet headquarters. Bahrain’s own state news agency reported the strike. No casualty figures released yet. This is the command center for every American naval operation in the Persian Gulf. It was struck. UAE. Multiple missiles intercepted by Emirati air defenses. One civilian killed in Abu Dhabi from falling debris. The UAE defense ministry confirmed the intercepts. The Emirates just absorbed an act of war on its sovereign territory from a country it shares a maritime border with. Qatar. Missile intercepted. Zero damage. The Qatari Interior Ministry confirmed. The same country Iran just attacked is the country that hosted Al Udeid for twenty years as a gesture of regional balance. That balance ended this morning. Kuwait. KUNA state news agency confirmed missiles were “dealt with” in Kuwaiti airspace. No reported damage. Kuwait, which stayed neutral through every Gulf crisis since 1991, just had Iranian ballistic missiles flying over its cities. Jordan. Two Iranian ballistic missiles shot down by Jordanian military. Confirmed by the Jordanian armed forces directly. Jordan intercepted Iranian missiles in June 2025 as well. That was in defense of Israel. This time Iran targeted Jordan itself. Saudi Arabia. Fars News claims strikes. No confirmation from any Saudi source. No Tier 1 or Tier 2 verification. Either it did not happen or Riyadh is not yet ready to say it did. Both possibilities carry enormous implications. Now understand what Iran just accomplished strategically. In attempting to retaliate against Israel and America, the IRGC fired missiles at six sovereign nations in a single morning. Not one of those nations attacked Iran. Bahrain did not bomb Tehran. The UAE did not launch strikes on Isfahan. Qatar hosted diplomatic back channels. Kuwait maintained neutrality for three decades. Jordan was mediating. Iran just converted every neutral and semi-neutral state in the Gulf into a potential co-belligerent. Every nation whose airspace was violated, whose civilians were killed, whose sovereignty was breached now has legal and political justification to join whatever coalition forms next. And the damage tells the real story. One civilian dead from debris. Intercepts across four countries. No confirmed destruction of any US military asset. No reported American casualties among 40,000 troops in theater. Iran fired at the entire Gulf and the Gulf caught almost everything. Compare this to what Israel did to Tehran this morning. Precision strikes on the IRGC Intelligence Directorate. Explosions near the Supreme Leader’s office. Three detonations in central Tehran confirmed by Iranian state media itself. One side hit what it aimed at. The other side hit one civilian with debris. This is the asymmetry that will define the next 72 hours. Iran demonstrated intent to strike everywhere and capability to hit almost nothing. The Gulf states demonstrated they can defend themselves. And now those states must decide whether the country that just fired ballistic missiles across their borders gets to do it again. They will not let it happen again. Watch for the joint statement. Watch for airspace coordination between Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Manama, and Kuwait City. Watch for the coalition that Iran just built against itself with a single salvo. Iran did not retaliate against Israel this morning. Iran gave every country in the Middle East a reason to retaliate against Iran.

Iran just fired missiles at five countries simultaneously. Here is what actually happened to each of them. Bahrain. Confirmed hit on the US Navy Fifth Fleet headquarters. Bahrain’s own state news agency reported the strike. No casualty figures released yet. This is the command center for every American naval operation in the Persian Gulf. It was struck. UAE. Multiple missiles intercepted by Emirati air defenses. One civilian killed in Abu Dhabi from falling debris. The UAE defense ministry confirmed the intercepts. The Emirates just absorbed an act of war on its sovereign territory from a country it shares a maritime border with. Qatar. Missile intercepted. Zero damage. The Qatari Interior Ministry confirmed. The same country Iran just attacked is the country that hosted Al Udeid for twenty years as a gesture of regional balance. That balance ended this morning. Kuwait. KUNA state news agency confirmed missiles were “dealt with” in Kuwaiti airspace. No reported damage. Kuwait, which stayed neutral through every Gulf crisis since 1991, just had Iranian ballistic missiles flying over its cities. Jordan. Two Iranian ballistic missiles shot down by Jordanian military. Confirmed by the Jordanian armed forces directly. Jordan intercepted Iranian missiles in June 2025 as well. That was in defense of Israel. This time Iran targeted Jordan itself. Saudi Arabia. Fars News claims strikes. No confirmation from any Saudi source. No Tier 1 or Tier 2 verification. Either it did not happen or Riyadh is not yet ready to say it did. Both possibilities carry enormous implications. Now understand what Iran just accomplished strategically. In attempting to retaliate against Israel and America, the IRGC fired missiles at six sovereign nations in a single morning. Not one of those nations attacked Iran. Bahrain did not bomb Tehran. The UAE did not launch strikes on Isfahan. Qatar hosted diplomatic back channels. Kuwait maintained neutrality for three decades. Jordan was mediating. Iran just converted every neutral and semi-neutral state in the Gulf into a potential co-belligerent. Every nation whose airspace was violated, whose civilians were killed, whose sovereignty was breached now has legal and political justification to join whatever coalition forms next. And the damage tells the real story. One civilian dead from debris. Intercepts across four countries. No confirmed destruction of any US military asset. No reported American casualties among 40,000 troops in theater. Iran fired at the entire Gulf and the Gulf caught almost everything. Compare this to what Israel did to Tehran this morning. Precision strikes on the IRGC Intelligence Directorate. Explosions near the Supreme Leader’s office. Three detonations in central Tehran confirmed by Iranian state media itself. One side hit what it aimed at. The other side hit one civilian with debris. This is the asymmetry that will define the next 72 hours. Iran demonstrated intent to strike everywhere and capability to hit almost nothing. The Gulf states demonstrated they can defend themselves. And now those states must decide whether the country that just fired ballistic missiles across their borders gets to do it again. They will not let it happen again. Watch for the joint statement. Watch for airspace coordination between Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Manama, and Kuwait City. Watch for the coalition that Iran just built against itself with a single salvo. Iran did not retaliate against Israel this morning. Iran gave every country in the Middle East a reason to retaliate against Iran.

Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡

16,726,044 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

🚨 The last 24 hours didn’t change the war in Iran. They clarified where it’s heading. *⃣ Israel struck inside Tehran again, with the IDF confirming a wide wave targeting regime infrastructure in the capital. Open-source reporting points to repeated explosions in western Tehran’s Chitgar area, including sites linked to IRGC aerospace activity, with indications of deeper penetration into command and operational systems. *⃣ Iran launched multiple coordinated barrages into central Israel, triggering nationwide alerts across Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and the coastal plain. A ballistic missile struck a residential area, while cluster munitions and interception debris caused localized damage and light injuries across multiple locations. *⃣ The U.S. paused energy-site strikes while preparing escalation options, extending the timeline for targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure while weighing deployment of up to 10,000 additional troops and potential expanded operations. Over the last 24 hours, the battlefield didn’t shift in a dramatic new direction. But the trajectory became clearer. Inside Iran, the campaign is now visibly centered on Tehran itself, not just peripheral military sites. Repeated strikes in western districts and areas associated with IRGC aerospace infrastructure point to a focused effort to degrade missile and operational command capabilities. Additional reporting suggests targeted eliminations remain part of the campaign, though confirmation remains mixed. On the Israeli side, Iran demonstrated it can still impose disruption at scale. The latest attacks included multiple waves in a single day, with at least one confirmed impact in a residential area and additional injuries caused by shrapnel and cluster dispersal. The operational effect is less about mass casualties and more about sustained pressure on Israel’s civilian core. The diplomatic picture also became clearer, not because of progress, but because of contradiction. Washington has paused strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure for 10 days while pushing for a deal, even as Tehran denies requesting the pause and rejects key elements of the U.S. position. At the same time, Iran appears to be selectively modulating pressure in the Strait of Hormuz, allowing limited passage in what U.S. officials have framed as a gesture, even as broader threats to Gulf energy infrastructure remain in place. At the same time, the U.S. is preparing for the opposite outcome. Planning continues for additional troop deployments and potential escalation scenarios, including operations targeting Kharg Island, the terminal responsible for the majority of Iran’s oil exports. Control of that node would directly threaten the regime’s primary revenue stream, but would also carry significant risk of wider regional retaliation. Israel, for its part, appears to be acting on the assumption that its window is limited. Reporting indicates directives to accelerate strikes against Iran’s military-industrial base, including missile and drone production, before any diplomatic outcome can constrain operations. Put together, the signal is this: ➡️The war is not expanding dramatically right now. It is tightening. ➡️Israel is pushing deeper into the infrastructure that sustains Iran’s military capability, now centered on Tehran. ➡️Iran is relying on intermittent but still disruptive strikes that continue to reach Israel’s population centers. And the United States is positioning between negotiation and escalation at the same time, preparing options that could decisively shift the war if chosen. ➡️The gap between what Washington says is happening and what Tehran is willing to accept is now as important as the fighting itself. **Special thanks to Michael W for his continued contribution to the open-source intel picture behind these updates. If you aren't already, you need to give him a follow!

🚨 The last 24 hours didn’t change the war in Iran. They clarified where it’s heading. ⃣ Israel struck inside Tehran again, with the IDF confirming a wide wave targeting regime infrastructure in the capital. Open-source reporting points to repeated explosions in western Tehran’s Chitgar area, including sites linked to IRGC aerospace activity, with indications of deeper penetration into command and operational systems. ⃣ Iran launched multiple coordinated barrages into central Israel, triggering nationwide alerts across Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and the coastal plain. A ballistic missile struck a residential area, while cluster munitions and interception debris caused localized damage and light injuries across multiple locations. *⃣ The U.S. paused energy-site strikes while preparing escalation options, extending the timeline for targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure while weighing deployment of up to 10,000 additional troops and potential expanded operations. Over the last 24 hours, the battlefield didn’t shift in a dramatic new direction. But the trajectory became clearer. Inside Iran, the campaign is now visibly centered on Tehran itself, not just peripheral military sites. Repeated strikes in western districts and areas associated with IRGC aerospace infrastructure point to a focused effort to degrade missile and operational command capabilities. Additional reporting suggests targeted eliminations remain part of the campaign, though confirmation remains mixed. On the Israeli side, Iran demonstrated it can still impose disruption at scale. The latest attacks included multiple waves in a single day, with at least one confirmed impact in a residential area and additional injuries caused by shrapnel and cluster dispersal. The operational effect is less about mass casualties and more about sustained pressure on Israel’s civilian core. The diplomatic picture also became clearer, not because of progress, but because of contradiction. Washington has paused strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure for 10 days while pushing for a deal, even as Tehran denies requesting the pause and rejects key elements of the U.S. position. At the same time, Iran appears to be selectively modulating pressure in the Strait of Hormuz, allowing limited passage in what U.S. officials have framed as a gesture, even as broader threats to Gulf energy infrastructure remain in place. At the same time, the U.S. is preparing for the opposite outcome. Planning continues for additional troop deployments and potential escalation scenarios, including operations targeting Kharg Island, the terminal responsible for the majority of Iran’s oil exports. Control of that node would directly threaten the regime’s primary revenue stream, but would also carry significant risk of wider regional retaliation. Israel, for its part, appears to be acting on the assumption that its window is limited. Reporting indicates directives to accelerate strikes against Iran’s military-industrial base, including missile and drone production, before any diplomatic outcome can constrain operations. Put together, the signal is this: ➡️The war is not expanding dramatically right now. It is tightening. ➡️Israel is pushing deeper into the infrastructure that sustains Iran’s military capability, now centered on Tehran. ➡️Iran is relying on intermittent but still disruptive strikes that continue to reach Israel’s population centers. And the United States is positioning between negotiation and escalation at the same time, preparing options that could decisively shift the war if chosen. ➡️The gap between what Washington says is happening and what Tehran is willing to accept is now as important as the fighting itself. **Special thanks to Michael W for his continued contribution to the open-source intel picture behind these updates. If you aren't already, you need to give him a follow!

Inside_Israel_Intel

128,925 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

🇮🇱🇮🇷 IRAN WAR STRATEGY EXPLAINED! It is important to understand that Iran is not fighting a symmetric war against the USA/Israel. They can’t and they don’t. 📋 Iran is doing two things at the same time: 1) WAR ON OIL AND GAS Iran is trying to choke off oil and gas trade from the Middle East through strikes on oil and gas platforms/refineries and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 25% of seaborne oil and gas trade. (Video 3) This hits US and Arab interests hard. The sheikhs are already calling Trump and urging quick action. They need peace to continue business. → This is achieved with minimal effort by Iran and is working. No ships pass the strait, oil/gas production is halted to some extent, prices skyrocket. This affects everyone worldwide. Trump is under heavy pressure as long as this continues. 2) MISSILE WAR The missile campaign is not aimed at quickly destroying USA or Israel. That’s pure internet hype. Iran fires enough drones and missiles to keep defenses busy and deplete interceptor stocks. They strike multiple locations simultaneously (Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, even Cyprus), forcing the US to spread air defenses thin. Concentrating heavy defenses in one place becomes impossible. As Rubio noted yesterday, only 6–7 interceptors are produced per month (Video 2), while Iran produces over 100 missiles per month. If Iran sustains the campaign, it will win the attrition war against air defenses. Time is on Iran’s side. The more air-defense missiles are expended per Iranian projectile, (just look how much they fire to intercept one missile - Video 4), the worse the situation becomes for the defenders—especially after Ukraine depleted much of the Western stockpile over the past four years. Key takeaway: As long as Iran maintains the missile campaign, time works in their favour. The longer the conflict lasts, the stronger Iran’s position becomes. If air defenses run out, Iran can strike freely anything and will win. 📋 Status quo: A) Iran fired fewer missiles on Monday, so they are losing? No! Analysis of the US CENTCOM video (Video 1): The US Air Force struck abandoned, already-used launchers and a broken-down truck. They clearly couldn’t locate active Iranian missile forces, so they hit whatever they found. The launchers were already expended; the crews had left after firing. When the US releases such footage, it suggests this is the best they have. They are not destroying Iran’s missile forces at a high rate. They destroy abandoned trucks. Iran doesn’t need to act quickly. Firing drones and missiles a few times a day is enough to keep oil/gas trade stopped and air defenses occupied. As long as they sustain this, time remains on their side. B) Is Iran winning? Also No. Iran struggles to keep its airspace clear. US surveillance drones continue to penetrate, preventing free movement of launchers. As long as those drones remain active, Iran cannot fire at will without risk. Failure to neutralise them would break their strategy. While American and Israeli drones fly in Irans sky, Irans missiles stay under ground and can’t surface, or they risk being struck quickly. Hence US/Israeli Surveillance drones, that direct strikes are the biggest problem Iran has now. They want to roll out missile infrastructure from below ground to the surface, and they can’t … at least not at scale. Watch this closely as a key indicator. How many drones are flying above Iran and how many are shot down. C) What is the US/Israeli strategy? They planned to remove Khamenei, trigger mass protests by Shah supporters, and install a new regime. This has clearly failed. Now they destroy military buildings (police headquarters, etc.), mostly for posture and intimidation. Essential personnel do not work in above-ground offices—doing so would be foolish. The remaining option is to make life unbearable and force surrender by bombing power plants and similar infrastructure. This will come soon at scale. More bombs!

🇮🇱🇮🇷 IRAN WAR STRATEGY EXPLAINED! It is important to understand that Iran is not fighting a symmetric war against the USA/Israel. They can’t and they don’t. 📋 Iran is doing two things at the same time: 1) WAR ON OIL AND GAS Iran is trying to choke off oil and gas trade from the Middle East through strikes on oil and gas platforms/refineries and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 25% of seaborne oil and gas trade. (Video 3) This hits US and Arab interests hard. The sheikhs are already calling Trump and urging quick action. They need peace to continue business. → This is achieved with minimal effort by Iran and is working. No ships pass the strait, oil/gas production is halted to some extent, prices skyrocket. This affects everyone worldwide. Trump is under heavy pressure as long as this continues. 2) MISSILE WAR The missile campaign is not aimed at quickly destroying USA or Israel. That’s pure internet hype. Iran fires enough drones and missiles to keep defenses busy and deplete interceptor stocks. They strike multiple locations simultaneously (Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, even Cyprus), forcing the US to spread air defenses thin. Concentrating heavy defenses in one place becomes impossible. As Rubio noted yesterday, only 6–7 interceptors are produced per month (Video 2), while Iran produces over 100 missiles per month. If Iran sustains the campaign, it will win the attrition war against air defenses. Time is on Iran’s side. The more air-defense missiles are expended per Iranian projectile, (just look how much they fire to intercept one missile - Video 4), the worse the situation becomes for the defenders—especially after Ukraine depleted much of the Western stockpile over the past four years. Key takeaway: As long as Iran maintains the missile campaign, time works in their favour. The longer the conflict lasts, the stronger Iran’s position becomes. If air defenses run out, Iran can strike freely anything and will win. 📋 Status quo: A) Iran fired fewer missiles on Monday, so they are losing? No! Analysis of the US CENTCOM video (Video 1): The US Air Force struck abandoned, already-used launchers and a broken-down truck. They clearly couldn’t locate active Iranian missile forces, so they hit whatever they found. The launchers were already expended; the crews had left after firing. When the US releases such footage, it suggests this is the best they have. They are not destroying Iran’s missile forces at a high rate. They destroy abandoned trucks. Iran doesn’t need to act quickly. Firing drones and missiles a few times a day is enough to keep oil/gas trade stopped and air defenses occupied. As long as they sustain this, time remains on their side. B) Is Iran winning? Also No. Iran struggles to keep its airspace clear. US surveillance drones continue to penetrate, preventing free movement of launchers. As long as those drones remain active, Iran cannot fire at will without risk. Failure to neutralise them would break their strategy. While American and Israeli drones fly in Irans sky, Irans missiles stay under ground and can’t surface, or they risk being struck quickly. Hence US/Israeli Surveillance drones, that direct strikes are the biggest problem Iran has now. They want to roll out missile infrastructure from below ground to the surface, and they can’t … at least not at scale. Watch this closely as a key indicator. How many drones are flying above Iran and how many are shot down. C) What is the US/Israeli strategy? They planned to remove Khamenei, trigger mass protests by Shah supporters, and install a new regime. This has clearly failed. Now they destroy military buildings (police headquarters, etc.), mostly for posture and intimidation. Essential personnel do not work in above-ground offices—doing so would be foolish. The remaining option is to make life unbearable and force surrender by bombing power plants and similar infrastructure. This will come soon at scale. More bombs!

Lord Bebo

1,612,322 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

🚨Rebellion Erupts Against Munir–Shehbaz Alliance in AJ&K: Shutdown, Protests & Army Firing A major uprising is underway across Pakistani administered Kashmir known as Azad Jammu & Kashmir (AJ&K) as thousands have taken to the streets against the Pakistani government and military. Protests and a complete shutdown are ongoing in Rawalakot, Kotli, Muzaffarabad, Bhimber, Dadyal, Palandri, and Sudhnoti. In Rawalakot, demonstrations began around 11 a.m., with protesters blocking the main road. Pakistani police, army personnel, and Rangers responded with live firing, pellet guns, and tear gas. At least seven people were injured when security forces opened fire on protesters moving from Bhimber toward Rawalakot. In Kotli, large crowds are chanting slogans against the Pakistani military, with groups marching toward Rawalakot. In Dadyal, massive anti-army demonstrations are visible on the roads. The shutdown has paralyzed AJ&K — markets and businesses remain closed in all major cities including Muzaffarabad, Rawalakot, Kotli, Bhimber, and Dadyal. In Palandri, protesters displayed tear gas shells fired by security forces. In Sudhnoti, demonstrators carrying timber sticks issued warning messages to the Pakistani government and military. Clashes have now begun at Neelum Bridge in Muzaffarabad, with visuals of firing emerging as tensions escalate. What are the protesters demanding? A 38-point charter of demands, including: · Cheaper electricity, flour, rice, and pulses · Reduced electricity rates from hydropower projects like Mangla Dam — built on AJ&K land, which protesters argue is not part of Pakistan · Removal of 12 "refugee" seats in the AJ&K Legislative Assembly The 12-seat controversy: These seats are reserved for individuals who migrated from Indian-administered Kashmir but now live in Islamabad, Rawalpindi, and Karachi — not in AJ&K. Protesters ask: how can non-residents be voters and legislators here? Protesters claim that Pakistani military establishment and intelligence apparatus uses these seats to control the government in AJ&K Allegedly Pakistan's military uses these 12 seats (out of 45) to elect proxies, often militant leadership, and their family members. This allows the ISI and military to break away legislators and install their choice of prime minister whenever needed. This is not the first protest: Last October, a similar movement left 31 people dead. PM Shehbaz Sharif sent Rana Sanaullah to negotiate. Of 38 demands, 21 were accepted — but after eight months, none have been implemented. Instead, authorities have resumed firing on demonstrators. The "Butcher of Lahore" in AJ&K: Brigadier Faiq Ayub, now ISI Sector Commander in AJ&K, was previously Sub-Sector Commander Punjab — where he earned the nickname "Butcher of Lahore" for a violent crackdown on former PM Imran Khan's party PTI. He was handpicked and posted to AJ&K by Field Marshal Asim Munir. Since his arrival, military repression has intensified dramatically. As of June 9, 2 p.m., reportedly 57 civilians have been killed in military firing over the past eight months. What began as a protest over bread and butter has now become a direct challenge to military rule in AJ&K. Stay tuned for a Livestream on the latest updates and analysis...

🚨Rebellion Erupts Against Munir–Shehbaz Alliance in AJ&K: Shutdown, Protests & Army Firing A major uprising is underway across Pakistani administered Kashmir known as Azad Jammu & Kashmir (AJ&K) as thousands have taken to the streets against the Pakistani government and military. Protests and a complete shutdown are ongoing in Rawalakot, Kotli, Muzaffarabad, Bhimber, Dadyal, Palandri, and Sudhnoti. In Rawalakot, demonstrations began around 11 a.m., with protesters blocking the main road. Pakistani police, army personnel, and Rangers responded with live firing, pellet guns, and tear gas. At least seven people were injured when security forces opened fire on protesters moving from Bhimber toward Rawalakot. In Kotli, large crowds are chanting slogans against the Pakistani military, with groups marching toward Rawalakot. In Dadyal, massive anti-army demonstrations are visible on the roads. The shutdown has paralyzed AJ&K — markets and businesses remain closed in all major cities including Muzaffarabad, Rawalakot, Kotli, Bhimber, and Dadyal. In Palandri, protesters displayed tear gas shells fired by security forces. In Sudhnoti, demonstrators carrying timber sticks issued warning messages to the Pakistani government and military. Clashes have now begun at Neelum Bridge in Muzaffarabad, with visuals of firing emerging as tensions escalate. What are the protesters demanding? A 38-point charter of demands, including: · Cheaper electricity, flour, rice, and pulses · Reduced electricity rates from hydropower projects like Mangla Dam — built on AJ&K land, which protesters argue is not part of Pakistan · Removal of 12 "refugee" seats in the AJ&K Legislative Assembly The 12-seat controversy: These seats are reserved for individuals who migrated from Indian-administered Kashmir but now live in Islamabad, Rawalpindi, and Karachi — not in AJ&K. Protesters ask: how can non-residents be voters and legislators here? Protesters claim that Pakistani military establishment and intelligence apparatus uses these seats to control the government in AJ&K Allegedly Pakistan's military uses these 12 seats (out of 45) to elect proxies, often militant leadership, and their family members. This allows the ISI and military to break away legislators and install their choice of prime minister whenever needed. This is not the first protest: Last October, a similar movement left 31 people dead. PM Shehbaz Sharif sent Rana Sanaullah to negotiate. Of 38 demands, 21 were accepted — but after eight months, none have been implemented. Instead, authorities have resumed firing on demonstrators. The "Butcher of Lahore" in AJ&K: Brigadier Faiq Ayub, now ISI Sector Commander in AJ&K, was previously Sub-Sector Commander Punjab — where he earned the nickname "Butcher of Lahore" for a violent crackdown on former PM Imran Khan's party PTI. He was handpicked and posted to AJ&K by Field Marshal Asim Munir. Since his arrival, military repression has intensified dramatically. As of June 9, 2 p.m., reportedly 57 civilians have been killed in military firing over the past eight months. What began as a protest over bread and butter has now become a direct challenge to military rule in AJ&K. Stay tuned for a Livestream on the latest updates and analysis...

Adil Raja

64,157 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

Iran war, day 96! Iran has turned the game on its head! Iran’s president confirms that Iran has a nuke to the Pakistani prime minister. •The NSA may have intercepted this call •the Pakistani fm let the U.S. know -CIA Intel agent Larry Johnson confirms -Veteran journalist Pepe Escobar confirms -The IRGC previously confirms -Iran will demo its nuke on its time My analysis: Iran’s disclosure of a nuclear weapon is a massive humiliation to the Trump regime and Israel who committed two illegal wars against Iran, lost both while claiming victory defined by preventing Iran from obtaining nuke. This massive humiliation further solidifies Trump’s failed presidency and confirms America is a paper tiger who did its utmost for 39 days to defeat Iran while suffering a one sided defeat. How has Trump changed his tune since this news was exposed last week? Isn’t it interesting how Trump seems so much more diplomatic? Trump: "We actually spoke with Hezbollah for the first time. We didn’t know they spoke." •perhaps because he kept bombing them Trump on Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei: “Yeah, I’d like to meet him. I’d love to meet everybody. I would like to meet him and we probably will meet at some point, depending on how it all works out.” •Trump previously said Mojtaba is gay? •What changed? How did Trump respond to Iran levelling Kuwait and striking Bahrain? ‘They Were Slightly Provoked’: Trump DownplayedIran’s Attacks Targeting US Bases in Kuwait and Bahrain At least one person was killed, and dozens were injured during Iran's attack on Kuwait Iran launched missile and drone attacks on the GCC terror states after the US bombed a commercial ship attempting to reach Iran and launched strikes on Iran’s Qeshm island. During the Iranian attack on Kuwait, a passenger terminal at Kuwait’s international airport was hit, and at least one person was killed, and more than 60 were injured. Trump has completely sold out gulf allies in fear of a nuclear Iran! How has Iran responded since? Iranian Navy targeted a U.S. warship in the Sea of Oman •But Trump said Iran has no navy •see video below •Trump has yet to respond. How has Hezbollah responded? •Hezbollah launched a 2nd drone •it set of sirens in the Western Galilee What is a deal breaker for Trump? Per Hebrew channel 12: -Trump said he would consider ending the ceasefire with Iran if Tehran caused the death of American soldiers. •and that’s why he’s covering up deaths Eg. US DOW: A soldier died at Erbil Air Base in Iraq due to an accident during military training. lol yeah right. In the meantime Trump/israel have violated the ceasefire 6x in 10 days like the terrorist, barbarians they are with zero regard for international law. Who does Trump black for the war he started? “Israel needed us. They couldn't have done it without us. They couldn't have even come close. They needed us, and they got us to help them.” What are the consequences of trump’s failed foreign policies? Per US Army spokesperson: • We are facing financial pressures due to the war with Iran, border operations, and rising fuel prices. •impact to military training plans. • impact to cost of transporting personnel, supplies, and equipment. • The Army has issued directives to ration resources. •expect fuel rationing and difficult times ahead. Sen. Jacobs to Rubio: You say we are winning because the Iranian economy is suffering from inflation and losing millions daily. Well, we are also suffering from inflation. This inflation has cost us about $100 billion so far, and gasoline prices have risen. You say the war is over, but that's not what US intelligence agencies are saying. CIA analyst Pollack says Trump in a stalemate with Iran What is the extent of war crimes by the kosher terror state? -WHO: 190 Israeli terror attacks on healthcare workers in Lebanon in 3 months -17 hospitals have been damaged. -3 hospitals and 42 health centers remain closed.

Iran war, day 96! Iran has turned the game on its head! Iran’s president confirms that Iran has a nuke to the Pakistani prime minister. •The NSA may have intercepted this call •the Pakistani fm let the U.S. know -CIA Intel agent Larry Johnson confirms -Veteran journalist Pepe Escobar confirms -The IRGC previously confirms -Iran will demo its nuke on its time My analysis: Iran’s disclosure of a nuclear weapon is a massive humiliation to the Trump regime and Israel who committed two illegal wars against Iran, lost both while claiming victory defined by preventing Iran from obtaining nuke. This massive humiliation further solidifies Trump’s failed presidency and confirms America is a paper tiger who did its utmost for 39 days to defeat Iran while suffering a one sided defeat. How has Trump changed his tune since this news was exposed last week? Isn’t it interesting how Trump seems so much more diplomatic? Trump: "We actually spoke with Hezbollah for the first time. We didn’t know they spoke." •perhaps because he kept bombing them Trump on Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei: “Yeah, I’d like to meet him. I’d love to meet everybody. I would like to meet him and we probably will meet at some point, depending on how it all works out.” •Trump previously said Mojtaba is gay? •What changed? How did Trump respond to Iran levelling Kuwait and striking Bahrain? ‘They Were Slightly Provoked’: Trump DownplayedIran’s Attacks Targeting US Bases in Kuwait and Bahrain At least one person was killed, and dozens were injured during Iran's attack on Kuwait Iran launched missile and drone attacks on the GCC terror states after the US bombed a commercial ship attempting to reach Iran and launched strikes on Iran’s Qeshm island. During the Iranian attack on Kuwait, a passenger terminal at Kuwait’s international airport was hit, and at least one person was killed, and more than 60 were injured. Trump has completely sold out gulf allies in fear of a nuclear Iran! How has Iran responded since? Iranian Navy targeted a U.S. warship in the Sea of Oman •But Trump said Iran has no navy •see video below •Trump has yet to respond. How has Hezbollah responded? •Hezbollah launched a 2nd drone •it set of sirens in the Western Galilee What is a deal breaker for Trump? Per Hebrew channel 12: -Trump said he would consider ending the ceasefire with Iran if Tehran caused the death of American soldiers. •and that’s why he’s covering up deaths Eg. US DOW: A soldier died at Erbil Air Base in Iraq due to an accident during military training. lol yeah right. In the meantime Trump/israel have violated the ceasefire 6x in 10 days like the terrorist, barbarians they are with zero regard for international law. Who does Trump black for the war he started? “Israel needed us. They couldn't have done it without us. They couldn't have even come close. They needed us, and they got us to help them.” What are the consequences of trump’s failed foreign policies? Per US Army spokesperson: • We are facing financial pressures due to the war with Iran, border operations, and rising fuel prices. •impact to military training plans. • impact to cost of transporting personnel, supplies, and equipment. • The Army has issued directives to ration resources. •expect fuel rationing and difficult times ahead. Sen. Jacobs to Rubio: You say we are winning because the Iranian economy is suffering from inflation and losing millions daily. Well, we are also suffering from inflation. This inflation has cost us about $100 billion so far, and gasoline prices have risen. You say the war is over, but that's not what US intelligence agencies are saying. CIA analyst Pollack says Trump in a stalemate with Iran What is the extent of war crimes by the kosher terror state? -WHO: 190 Israeli terror attacks on healthcare workers in Lebanon in 3 months -17 hospitals have been damaged. -3 hospitals and 42 health centers remain closed.

Truth_teller 🇷🇺

47,684 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🚨 OPERATIONAL UPDATE: ISRAEL U.S. WAR WITH THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC - Reporting Window: LAST 24 HOURS • Iranian missiles struck Tel Aviv and northern Israel, causing injuries and structural damage • Israel expanded strikes across Iran, including Tehran, Tabriz, Isfahan, Bandar Abbas, and missile infrastructure sites • U.S.–Israel strikes hit senior PMF infrastructure in Iraq, killing key commanders • Reported strikes on Iranian gas infrastructure in Isfahan and Khorramshahr signal a potential shift toward energy targeting • Lebanon intensified with evacuations, Rashidiya strikes, and continued Hezbollah fire • Trump abruptly pivoted to negotiations with Iran and extended the Hormuz deadline, delaying a major escalation The past 24 hours were not defined by a single headline event, but by a combination of very real battlefield activity and a sudden political shift at the top level. On the ground, the war remained active across every front: Israel, Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, and the Gulf. At the same time, the expected U.S. escalation tied to Hormuz did not happen. Instead, Washington pivoted toward negotiations, with Trump claiming talks are close to agreement while Iran publicly denies that anything meaningful is underway. That combination, ongoing war with a simultaneous negotiation track, is new. And it matters. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🚀 IRANIAN MISSILE ATTACKS ON ISRAEL Iran continued missile launches into Israel, with a clear pattern of split targeting between central and northern sectors. A missile hit in Tel Aviv injured several civilians and damaged nearby residential structures. Later waves triggered wide alert zones across northern Israel, including the Galilee, Golan, and confrontation line communities. Your outbox tracked these alerts across dozens of locations in real time. There were also additional impacts from fragments and debris, including a schoolyard hit and damage to homes in the north without mass casualties. This continues a trend seen over the last several days: • lower salvo size • wider disruption footprint • sustained daily pressure Iran is no longer relying on large coordinated barrages. It is maintaining pressure through frequency, geography, and effect per missile. At the same time, Israeli officials continue to investigate interception gaps, including earlier failures tied to THAAD systems, reinforcing that even a degraded Iranian launcher network can still produce meaningful results. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ✈️ STRATEGIC AIR CAMPAIGN OVER IRAN The Israeli and U.S. strike campaign inside Iran remained broad, multi-layered, and geographically extensive. Mainstream reporting confirmed strikes on: • missile storage and production facilities • regime and intelligence headquarters in Tehran • additional infrastructure in Isfahan and surrounding regions Open source intel shows how wide this really was. Strikes or explosions were reported across: • Tehran (multiple districts including eastern sectors and Parchin-adjacent areas) • Tabriz • Khuzestan and Dezful • Bandar Abbas and coastal nodes • Yazd and missile infrastructure There were also multiple reports of targeted assassination strikes, destruction of missile-related infrastructure, and pressure on internal security nodes This matters because the campaign is not narrowing. It is hitting production, command, logistics, and leadership. This is a system-wide degradation effort, not a tactical suppression campaign. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚡ ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE: THE WAR IS GETTING CLOSER TO THE GRID One of the most important developments in this window was the reported targeting of Iranian gas infrastructure. Reuters reported a gas company office and pressure reduction station hit in Isfahan and a pipeline feeding a power station in Khorramshahr struck At the same time, oil prices rose again as markets reacted to continued Hormuz disruption, uncertainty around negotiations, and risk of escalation into full infrastructure targeting Open source intel strongly corroborates these reports, with repeated references to the same targets and follow-on rhetoric about retaliatory strikes on regional power systems. This is the key shift. The war is moving from military systems toward civilian energy systems. Not fully yet, but clearly closer. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🇮🇶 IRAQ: PROXY COMMAND STRUCTURE HIT The Iraq front escalated meaningfully. Reuters reported that strikes hit: • PMF headquarters in Anbar • a residence tied to PMF leadership Casualties included at least 15 fighters killed, dozens wounded, and the confirmed death of operations commander Saad al-Baiji. Open source intel confirmed this in real time, including militant messaging and follow-on threats against U.S. positions. This was not a minor militia strike. It was a hit on central PMF command infrastructure. That keeps Iraq as an active and important front, not just a background theater. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🇱🇧 LEBANON: PRESSURE CONTINUES AND DEEPENS The Lebanon front remained highly active. Key developments included evacuation warnings north of the Zahrani River, Israeli strikes near Rashidiya and southern Lebanon infrastructure, and continued Hezbollah rocket fire into northern Israel. Open source intel tracked: • strike activity near Rashidiya refugee camp • additional targeted strikes in Bchamoun • repeated northern Israeli alerts Israel continues shifting toward targeting infrastructure, limiting movement, and shaping the battlefield. Hezbollah remains active, but increasingly constrained. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🌍 WASHINGTON, TEHRAN, AND THE NEGOTIATION TRACK In a sharp pivot, Trump announced that the U.S. is now holding talks with Iran, the Hormuz deadline was extended, and discussions are “close to agreement”. From there markets reacted immediately with oil prices dropping and then global markets rallying. But the reality is far less clear. Iranian leadership denied meaningful negotiations, and then demanded compensation and guarantees as new conditions for an any agreement, including limiting U.S. presence in the Gulf There is also uncertainty about who the U.S. is even talking to. Reports suggest contact with Mohammad Ghalibaf rather than Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not been seen publicly. At the same time, there is a deeper shift: The U.S. may now be willing to end the war without full regime change. That is a major departure from earlier expectations. Meanwhile, Israel is trying to ensure any deal reflects its interests, with Netanyahu reportedly engaging directly with the administration. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📌 WHAT MATTERS MOST RIGHT NOW Three developments define the war right now. 1️⃣ The battlefield remains fully active across all fronts. Missiles, strikes, Lebanon operations, and Gulf pressure all continued in this window. 2️⃣ The war is moving closer to energy infrastructure targeting. Isfahan and Khorramshahr are early signals of a potentially much more dangerous phase. 3️⃣ Negotiations have entered the picture, but nothing is settled. The war is still being fought at full intensity even as diplomacy begins. Bottom line, this was not just another day of escalation. It was the first clear moment where war and negotiations are happening at the same time. That creates a new dynamic: • escalation is still real • pressure is still increasing • but the outcome is now less predictable than it was 24 hours ago Quick note... big thanks to Michael W for contributing to the open-source intel picture behind these updates. If you’re serious about following this war and the broader geopolitical landscape, he’s worth having in your feed. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ END OF REPORT

🚨 OPERATIONAL UPDATE: ISRAEL U.S. WAR WITH THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC - Reporting Window: LAST 24 HOURS • Iranian missiles struck Tel Aviv and northern Israel, causing injuries and structural damage • Israel expanded strikes across Iran, including Tehran, Tabriz, Isfahan, Bandar Abbas, and missile infrastructure sites • U.S.–Israel strikes hit senior PMF infrastructure in Iraq, killing key commanders • Reported strikes on Iranian gas infrastructure in Isfahan and Khorramshahr signal a potential shift toward energy targeting • Lebanon intensified with evacuations, Rashidiya strikes, and continued Hezbollah fire • Trump abruptly pivoted to negotiations with Iran and extended the Hormuz deadline, delaying a major escalation The past 24 hours were not defined by a single headline event, but by a combination of very real battlefield activity and a sudden political shift at the top level. On the ground, the war remained active across every front: Israel, Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, and the Gulf. At the same time, the expected U.S. escalation tied to Hormuz did not happen. Instead, Washington pivoted toward negotiations, with Trump claiming talks are close to agreement while Iran publicly denies that anything meaningful is underway. That combination, ongoing war with a simultaneous negotiation track, is new. And it matters. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🚀 IRANIAN MISSILE ATTACKS ON ISRAEL Iran continued missile launches into Israel, with a clear pattern of split targeting between central and northern sectors. A missile hit in Tel Aviv injured several civilians and damaged nearby residential structures. Later waves triggered wide alert zones across northern Israel, including the Galilee, Golan, and confrontation line communities. Your outbox tracked these alerts across dozens of locations in real time. There were also additional impacts from fragments and debris, including a schoolyard hit and damage to homes in the north without mass casualties. This continues a trend seen over the last several days: • lower salvo size • wider disruption footprint • sustained daily pressure Iran is no longer relying on large coordinated barrages. It is maintaining pressure through frequency, geography, and effect per missile. At the same time, Israeli officials continue to investigate interception gaps, including earlier failures tied to THAAD systems, reinforcing that even a degraded Iranian launcher network can still produce meaningful results. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ✈️ STRATEGIC AIR CAMPAIGN OVER IRAN The Israeli and U.S. strike campaign inside Iran remained broad, multi-layered, and geographically extensive. Mainstream reporting confirmed strikes on: • missile storage and production facilities • regime and intelligence headquarters in Tehran • additional infrastructure in Isfahan and surrounding regions Open source intel shows how wide this really was. Strikes or explosions were reported across: • Tehran (multiple districts including eastern sectors and Parchin-adjacent areas) • Tabriz • Khuzestan and Dezful • Bandar Abbas and coastal nodes • Yazd and missile infrastructure There were also multiple reports of targeted assassination strikes, destruction of missile-related infrastructure, and pressure on internal security nodes This matters because the campaign is not narrowing. It is hitting production, command, logistics, and leadership. This is a system-wide degradation effort, not a tactical suppression campaign. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚡ ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE: THE WAR IS GETTING CLOSER TO THE GRID One of the most important developments in this window was the reported targeting of Iranian gas infrastructure. Reuters reported a gas company office and pressure reduction station hit in Isfahan and a pipeline feeding a power station in Khorramshahr struck At the same time, oil prices rose again as markets reacted to continued Hormuz disruption, uncertainty around negotiations, and risk of escalation into full infrastructure targeting Open source intel strongly corroborates these reports, with repeated references to the same targets and follow-on rhetoric about retaliatory strikes on regional power systems. This is the key shift. The war is moving from military systems toward civilian energy systems. Not fully yet, but clearly closer. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🇮🇶 IRAQ: PROXY COMMAND STRUCTURE HIT The Iraq front escalated meaningfully. Reuters reported that strikes hit: • PMF headquarters in Anbar • a residence tied to PMF leadership Casualties included at least 15 fighters killed, dozens wounded, and the confirmed death of operations commander Saad al-Baiji. Open source intel confirmed this in real time, including militant messaging and follow-on threats against U.S. positions. This was not a minor militia strike. It was a hit on central PMF command infrastructure. That keeps Iraq as an active and important front, not just a background theater. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🇱🇧 LEBANON: PRESSURE CONTINUES AND DEEPENS The Lebanon front remained highly active. Key developments included evacuation warnings north of the Zahrani River, Israeli strikes near Rashidiya and southern Lebanon infrastructure, and continued Hezbollah rocket fire into northern Israel. Open source intel tracked: • strike activity near Rashidiya refugee camp • additional targeted strikes in Bchamoun • repeated northern Israeli alerts Israel continues shifting toward targeting infrastructure, limiting movement, and shaping the battlefield. Hezbollah remains active, but increasingly constrained. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🌍 WASHINGTON, TEHRAN, AND THE NEGOTIATION TRACK In a sharp pivot, Trump announced that the U.S. is now holding talks with Iran, the Hormuz deadline was extended, and discussions are “close to agreement”. From there markets reacted immediately with oil prices dropping and then global markets rallying. But the reality is far less clear. Iranian leadership denied meaningful negotiations, and then demanded compensation and guarantees as new conditions for an any agreement, including limiting U.S. presence in the Gulf There is also uncertainty about who the U.S. is even talking to. Reports suggest contact with Mohammad Ghalibaf rather than Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not been seen publicly. At the same time, there is a deeper shift: The U.S. may now be willing to end the war without full regime change. That is a major departure from earlier expectations. Meanwhile, Israel is trying to ensure any deal reflects its interests, with Netanyahu reportedly engaging directly with the administration. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📌 WHAT MATTERS MOST RIGHT NOW Three developments define the war right now. 1️⃣ The battlefield remains fully active across all fronts. Missiles, strikes, Lebanon operations, and Gulf pressure all continued in this window. 2️⃣ The war is moving closer to energy infrastructure targeting. Isfahan and Khorramshahr are early signals of a potentially much more dangerous phase. 3️⃣ Negotiations have entered the picture, but nothing is settled. The war is still being fought at full intensity even as diplomacy begins. Bottom line, this was not just another day of escalation. It was the first clear moment where war and negotiations are happening at the same time. That creates a new dynamic: • escalation is still real • pressure is still increasing • but the outcome is now less predictable than it was 24 hours ago Quick note... big thanks to Michael W for contributing to the open-source intel picture behind these updates. If you’re serious about following this war and the broader geopolitical landscape, he’s worth having in your feed. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ END OF REPORT

Inside_Israel_Intel

37,207 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

🚨 OPERATIONAL UPDATE: TALKS FAIL, PRESSURE CONTINUES - Reporting Window: Last 24 Hours The diplomatic track did not produce a result in this window. After extended, high-level negotiations in Islamabad, the United States and Iran left without an agreement, despite what both sides described as a final round of talks. At the same time, Lebanon remains active, the Strait of Hormuz is still unresolved, and the broader regional pressure structure has not changed. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🇵🇰 ISLAMABAD TALKS: FAILED ROUND, NOT A BREAKTHROUGH The most important development in this window is straightforward: • U.S. and Iranian delegations held 21 hours of direct talks • No agreement was reached • Both sides left without accepting terms • Each side blamed the other The core issues did not move: • U.S. demands: nuclear rollback and unrestricted access to the Strait of Hormuz • Iranian demands: sanctions relief, reparations, control over Hormuz, and a regional ceasefire including Lebanon Those positions remain fundamentally incompatible. At its core, this is not just a ceasefire negotiation. It is a negotiation over Iran’s long-term ability to project power: • The U.S. is pushing to dismantle that capability, including nuclear, missile, and proxy elements • Iran is trying to preserve enough of it to remain a regional power Both sides are still signaling willingness to continue talks, but this round produced no progress. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🇱🇧 LEBANON: CONTINUED STRIKES, NO LINK TO CEASEFIRE Lebanon remains the most active battlefield and was not affected by the failed negotiations. Israeli strikes continued across southern Lebanon, with reporting confirming: • Multiple strike waves across southern towns • At least 11 killed in recent operations • Continued targeting of Hezbollah infrastructure and positions At the same time, Hezbollah continues: • Intermittent rocket fire toward Israel • Ongoing clashes along the border This reinforces the established fact that there is no operational pause in Lebanon. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚓ STRAIT OF HORMUZ: NAVAL MOVEMENTS AND PARTIAL OPENING The most important operational shift in this window is in the Strait itself. Two U.S. Navy destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz, tied to planned mine-clearing operations. Three supertankers successfully exited the Gulf, while hundreds remain queued, and Iran continues to signal control and leverage over access. At the same time, the U.S. has now moved beyond signaling: • President Trump announced the Navy will interdict vessels that pay tolls to Iran • He indicated a willingness to impose a de facto blockade of the Strait • The stated objective is to eliminate Iran’s ability to monetize or control passage This creates a new reality: • Hormuz is not fully closed • It is not fully open • It is now becoming an actively contested maritime zone ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🌍 GLOBAL ENERGY RESPONSE Markets are already adapting to the disruption. • Tankers are rerouting away from the Gulf • U.S. exports are rising toward record levels • Gulf Coast refineries are running near capacity • Major buyers are competing for non-Gulf supply The effect is clear. Iran disrupted supply, the global market began rerouting around it, that does not remove Iran’s leverage. It limits how long that leverage can be sustained. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📌 WHAT MATTERS MOST RIGHT NOW • U.S.–Iran talks failed to produce an agreement • Both sides left Islamabad without accepting terms, though talks may continue • Lebanon remains an active battlefield, with continued Israeli strikes and Hezbollah fire • The U.S. has begun direct naval movement through Hormuz, including destroyer transits and upcoming mine-clearing operations • Shipping is partially resuming, but the Strait remains unstable and contested ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🧠 ASSESSMENT This was a real negotiation attempt. It failed. And the reason it failed is becoming clearer. Iran continues to negotiate as if it holds structural leverage over the outcome. The battlefield suggests otherwise. Its position is weaker than its posture. But it is not without leverage. That leverage is concentrated in two places: • The ability to disrupt Hormuz and global energy flow • The ability to keep secondary fronts, especially Lebanon, active The first creates economic pressure. The second prevents clean diplomatic separation. At the same time, the United States is signaling something equally important: It is willing to test those limits directly. Naval transits through Hormuz are not symbolic. They are the early stages of forcing open the most important pressure point Iran still holds. That is the real signal underneath the headlines. Not just that talks failed. But that both sides are now preparing for what happens if they continue to fail.

🚨 OPERATIONAL UPDATE: TALKS FAIL, PRESSURE CONTINUES - Reporting Window: Last 24 Hours The diplomatic track did not produce a result in this window. After extended, high-level negotiations in Islamabad, the United States and Iran left without an agreement, despite what both sides described as a final round of talks. At the same time, Lebanon remains active, the Strait of Hormuz is still unresolved, and the broader regional pressure structure has not changed. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🇵🇰 ISLAMABAD TALKS: FAILED ROUND, NOT A BREAKTHROUGH The most important development in this window is straightforward: • U.S. and Iranian delegations held 21 hours of direct talks • No agreement was reached • Both sides left without accepting terms • Each side blamed the other The core issues did not move: • U.S. demands: nuclear rollback and unrestricted access to the Strait of Hormuz • Iranian demands: sanctions relief, reparations, control over Hormuz, and a regional ceasefire including Lebanon Those positions remain fundamentally incompatible. At its core, this is not just a ceasefire negotiation. It is a negotiation over Iran’s long-term ability to project power: • The U.S. is pushing to dismantle that capability, including nuclear, missile, and proxy elements • Iran is trying to preserve enough of it to remain a regional power Both sides are still signaling willingness to continue talks, but this round produced no progress. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🇱🇧 LEBANON: CONTINUED STRIKES, NO LINK TO CEASEFIRE Lebanon remains the most active battlefield and was not affected by the failed negotiations. Israeli strikes continued across southern Lebanon, with reporting confirming: • Multiple strike waves across southern towns • At least 11 killed in recent operations • Continued targeting of Hezbollah infrastructure and positions At the same time, Hezbollah continues: • Intermittent rocket fire toward Israel • Ongoing clashes along the border This reinforces the established fact that there is no operational pause in Lebanon. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚓ STRAIT OF HORMUZ: NAVAL MOVEMENTS AND PARTIAL OPENING The most important operational shift in this window is in the Strait itself. Two U.S. Navy destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz, tied to planned mine-clearing operations. Three supertankers successfully exited the Gulf, while hundreds remain queued, and Iran continues to signal control and leverage over access. At the same time, the U.S. has now moved beyond signaling: • President Trump announced the Navy will interdict vessels that pay tolls to Iran • He indicated a willingness to impose a de facto blockade of the Strait • The stated objective is to eliminate Iran’s ability to monetize or control passage This creates a new reality: • Hormuz is not fully closed • It is not fully open • It is now becoming an actively contested maritime zone ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🌍 GLOBAL ENERGY RESPONSE Markets are already adapting to the disruption. • Tankers are rerouting away from the Gulf • U.S. exports are rising toward record levels • Gulf Coast refineries are running near capacity • Major buyers are competing for non-Gulf supply The effect is clear. Iran disrupted supply, the global market began rerouting around it, that does not remove Iran’s leverage. It limits how long that leverage can be sustained. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📌 WHAT MATTERS MOST RIGHT NOW • U.S.–Iran talks failed to produce an agreement • Both sides left Islamabad without accepting terms, though talks may continue • Lebanon remains an active battlefield, with continued Israeli strikes and Hezbollah fire • The U.S. has begun direct naval movement through Hormuz, including destroyer transits and upcoming mine-clearing operations • Shipping is partially resuming, but the Strait remains unstable and contested ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🧠 ASSESSMENT This was a real negotiation attempt. It failed. And the reason it failed is becoming clearer. Iran continues to negotiate as if it holds structural leverage over the outcome. The battlefield suggests otherwise. Its position is weaker than its posture. But it is not without leverage. That leverage is concentrated in two places: • The ability to disrupt Hormuz and global energy flow • The ability to keep secondary fronts, especially Lebanon, active The first creates economic pressure. The second prevents clean diplomatic separation. At the same time, the United States is signaling something equally important: It is willing to test those limits directly. Naval transits through Hormuz are not symbolic. They are the early stages of forcing open the most important pressure point Iran still holds. That is the real signal underneath the headlines. Not just that talks failed. But that both sides are now preparing for what happens if they continue to fail.

Inside_Israel_Intel

22,034 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

A new wave of protests is underway in Iran, a strategic partner of Russia. They started in late December 2025 and quickly became the most significant in several years. This time, the initial driving force has not primarily been cultural or human rights slogans such as "Woman, Life, Freedom" (as in 2022), but rather an economic shock. People are joining the protests because of rapid impoverishment, price increase, and a growing sense that the state has lost control over basic economic rules. The main trigger is a currency collapse. On the "open" (effectively parallel) market in late December, the US dollar was valued at roughly 1.39-1.42 million rials, while inflation in December reached over 40% in some estimates. For ordinary families, this means one simple thing: wages and savings are losing value faster than people can adapt, and basic purchases are becoming increasingly unaffordable. The protests were the largest in Tehran, particularly in commercial districts linked to major markets and urban trade. Notably, a key form of pressure has been not only street demonstrations but also merchants’ strikes - mass shop closures and an effective shutdown of trade. Such actions are harder to neutralize through targeted arrests, as they immediately affect urban life and the economy. Within days, the protest wave started spreading to other cities and reached parts of the university sector as well. Students and young people have taken up economic demands and quickly moved on to political questions about the accountability of those in power. The authorities’ response has been mixed. On the one hand, the government has publicly spoken of readiness for dialogue with representatives of the protesters and the trading community. On the other hand, reports from the ground indicate coercive containment measures: arrests, dispersals, and crackdowns. In several provinces, deaths and injuries have already been reported. The figures vary across sources, which is typical for Iran due to information restrictions, but the very fact of fatalities during clashes has been confirmed by several major media outlets. What makes this wave of protests particularly risky for the regime is that it rests on the urban economic base: small and medium-sized businesses, commerce, and the "bazaar." Even if these groups have not always been at the forefront of political protests, they serve as a sensitive barometer of legitimacy. When the "bazaar" shuts down, it signals not only discontent, but also doubt about the state’s ability to maintain basic order. Alongside the internal crisis, external risks are also mounting. Sanctions continue to narrow Iran’s financial and technological room for maneuver, while signals are emerging in the media about the possibility of a new round of coercive pressure on Iran in 2026 - particularly following discussions within the Israel-US-Iran triangle. ❓ What could come next? Four trajectories appear most realistic, and they may even overlap. ▪️ First, controlled de-escalation: the authorities attempt to "cool things down" through targeted economic measures and negotiations with the trading community. This would work only if the exchange rate and prices stabilize. ▪️ Second, wave-like protests: smaller in scale but more frequent and more radical, with repeated flare-ups across different cities and sectors. ▪️ Third, harsh repression: a tightening of the security apparatus and severe sentences, which may temporarily suppress mobilization but typically accumulate deferred anger. ▪️ Fourth, external escalation: which could either temporarily shift the domestic agenda or, conversely, sharply worsen economic conditions and bring people back onto the streets even faster. ‼️ Iran is one of Russia’s authoritarian partners, which raises a logical question: what consequences could the current crisis have for Russian-Iranian relations? If the situation in Iran deteriorates but the regime as a whole survives, the partnership with Russia is likely to be preserved or even strengthened. For Tehran, Moscow remains one of the few major partners available under sanctions and diplomatic isolation; for Moscow, Iran is an important component of its "anti-sanctions" infrastructure and political rear. In the short term, this is unlikely to significantly weaken Russia’s position. The most critical military component for Russia - the Shahed/Geran drone line - has already been largely integrated into Russian domestic production, meaning that a direct disruption of Iranian supplies would probably not be a turning point. More tangible risks for Russia emerge in the medium term if Iran enters a phase of governance paralysis or prolonged instability that undermines its ability to honor agreements. In that case, logistics and infrastructure projects would be hit first - especially those Russia views as alternative sanction-era routes, including the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and its critical segments. In such a scenario, Moscow would lose the Iranian vector for trade and transit and would face a less predictable partner in technology transfers and financial settlements. The most ambiguous scenario is one in which Iran’s deterioration is linked to a new external escalation (strikes or war). The effects for Russia could be mixed: on the one hand, heightened risks in the Persian Gulf often push oil prices higher, potentially boosting Russian oil revenues; on the other hand, war increases the likelihood of tighter sanctions enforcement and maritime controls, complicating both Iranian and Russian sanction-evasion schemes and disrupting logistics. In other words, "deterioration in Iran" does not guarantee a weakening of Russia, but it does increase environmental instability. Moscow may gain from higher energy prices, but lose in terms of partner predictability and transport capacity. ‼️ Russia’s position would weaken most sharply in a scenario where a new leadership in Tehran moves toward normalization with the West or at least distances itself from Moscow. In that case, the entire "anti-sanctions" framework - financial settlements, technological cooperation, and joint projects - would come under pressure, including the North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and its key Rasht-Astara segment, in which Russia is investing both financially and politically. For Russia, this would mean the loss of an important (though not the only) route and partner infrastructure in the region. While the purely military Shahed/Geran component may be somewhat less critical due to partial localization of production inside Russia, Iran’s political and logistical value as a partner would nonetheless diminish.

A new wave of protests is underway in Iran, a strategic partner of Russia. They started in late December 2025 and quickly became the most significant in several years. This time, the initial driving force has not primarily been cultural or human rights slogans such as "Woman, Life, Freedom" (as in 2022), but rather an economic shock. People are joining the protests because of rapid impoverishment, price increase, and a growing sense that the state has lost control over basic economic rules. The main trigger is a currency collapse. On the "open" (effectively parallel) market in late December, the US dollar was valued at roughly 1.39-1.42 million rials, while inflation in December reached over 40% in some estimates. For ordinary families, this means one simple thing: wages and savings are losing value faster than people can adapt, and basic purchases are becoming increasingly unaffordable. The protests were the largest in Tehran, particularly in commercial districts linked to major markets and urban trade. Notably, a key form of pressure has been not only street demonstrations but also merchants’ strikes - mass shop closures and an effective shutdown of trade. Such actions are harder to neutralize through targeted arrests, as they immediately affect urban life and the economy. Within days, the protest wave started spreading to other cities and reached parts of the university sector as well. Students and young people have taken up economic demands and quickly moved on to political questions about the accountability of those in power. The authorities’ response has been mixed. On the one hand, the government has publicly spoken of readiness for dialogue with representatives of the protesters and the trading community. On the other hand, reports from the ground indicate coercive containment measures: arrests, dispersals, and crackdowns. In several provinces, deaths and injuries have already been reported. The figures vary across sources, which is typical for Iran due to information restrictions, but the very fact of fatalities during clashes has been confirmed by several major media outlets. What makes this wave of protests particularly risky for the regime is that it rests on the urban economic base: small and medium-sized businesses, commerce, and the "bazaar." Even if these groups have not always been at the forefront of political protests, they serve as a sensitive barometer of legitimacy. When the "bazaar" shuts down, it signals not only discontent, but also doubt about the state’s ability to maintain basic order. Alongside the internal crisis, external risks are also mounting. Sanctions continue to narrow Iran’s financial and technological room for maneuver, while signals are emerging in the media about the possibility of a new round of coercive pressure on Iran in 2026 - particularly following discussions within the Israel-US-Iran triangle. ❓ What could come next? Four trajectories appear most realistic, and they may even overlap. ▪️ First, controlled de-escalation: the authorities attempt to "cool things down" through targeted economic measures and negotiations with the trading community. This would work only if the exchange rate and prices stabilize. ▪️ Second, wave-like protests: smaller in scale but more frequent and more radical, with repeated flare-ups across different cities and sectors. ▪️ Third, harsh repression: a tightening of the security apparatus and severe sentences, which may temporarily suppress mobilization but typically accumulate deferred anger. ▪️ Fourth, external escalation: which could either temporarily shift the domestic agenda or, conversely, sharply worsen economic conditions and bring people back onto the streets even faster. ‼️ Iran is one of Russia’s authoritarian partners, which raises a logical question: what consequences could the current crisis have for Russian-Iranian relations? If the situation in Iran deteriorates but the regime as a whole survives, the partnership with Russia is likely to be preserved or even strengthened. For Tehran, Moscow remains one of the few major partners available under sanctions and diplomatic isolation; for Moscow, Iran is an important component of its "anti-sanctions" infrastructure and political rear. In the short term, this is unlikely to significantly weaken Russia’s position. The most critical military component for Russia - the Shahed/Geran drone line - has already been largely integrated into Russian domestic production, meaning that a direct disruption of Iranian supplies would probably not be a turning point. More tangible risks for Russia emerge in the medium term if Iran enters a phase of governance paralysis or prolonged instability that undermines its ability to honor agreements. In that case, logistics and infrastructure projects would be hit first - especially those Russia views as alternative sanction-era routes, including the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and its critical segments. In such a scenario, Moscow would lose the Iranian vector for trade and transit and would face a less predictable partner in technology transfers and financial settlements. The most ambiguous scenario is one in which Iran’s deterioration is linked to a new external escalation (strikes or war). The effects for Russia could be mixed: on the one hand, heightened risks in the Persian Gulf often push oil prices higher, potentially boosting Russian oil revenues; on the other hand, war increases the likelihood of tighter sanctions enforcement and maritime controls, complicating both Iranian and Russian sanction-evasion schemes and disrupting logistics. In other words, "deterioration in Iran" does not guarantee a weakening of Russia, but it does increase environmental instability. Moscow may gain from higher energy prices, but lose in terms of partner predictability and transport capacity. ‼️ Russia’s position would weaken most sharply in a scenario where a new leadership in Tehran moves toward normalization with the West or at least distances itself from Moscow. In that case, the entire "anti-sanctions" framework - financial settlements, technological cooperation, and joint projects - would come under pressure, including the North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and its key Rasht-Astara segment, in which Russia is investing both financially and politically. For Russia, this would mean the loss of an important (though not the only) route and partner infrastructure in the region. While the purely military Shahed/Geran component may be somewhat less critical due to partial localization of production inside Russia, Iran’s political and logistical value as a partner would nonetheless diminish.

Anton Gerashchenko

83,100 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

🚨12 HOUR NEWS RECAP 1.⁠ Tyler Robinson, 22, the trade school student accused of executing Charlie Kirk with a single rifle shot from a rooftop, is set to appear in court later today via video from jail. 2.⁠ FBI Director Kash Patel said the suspect in the Charlie Kirk shooting had confessed to killing him: “After the shooting and assassination of Charlie Kirk, the suspect admitted to it.” 3.⁠ After striking over 850 Hamas targets, Israeli forces have begun a full-scale ground invasion of Gaza City. Thousands are fleeing south in what is now Gaza’s largest displacement wave since the assault began. 4.⁠ U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio landed in Doha just one week after an Israeli strike in Qatar targeting Hamas leaders mid-negotiation. Rubio says the U.S will still push Qatar to continue mediating the Gaza war - despite the attack taking place on its soil. 5.⁠ After a massive overnight assault across multiple regions, Zelensky said Ukraine is under relentless “aerial terror” and urged Europe to deploy a joint, multi-layered air defense system. 6.⁠ Trump ordered a second strike on a boat carrying drugs in the Caribbean: “The Strike occurred while these confirmed narcoterrorists from Venezuela were in International Waters transporting illegal narcotics.” 7.⁠ American military officers made a surprise visit to huge war drills in Belarus, where Russia was showing off hypersonic missiles and even practicing with tactical nukes. Belarus’s defense minister told the U.S. team they could watch “whatever they want.” 8.⁠ A UN Commission of Inquiry has concluded Israel is committing genocide in Gaza - citing mass killings, forced displacement, aid blockages, and the destruction of a fertility clinic. 9.⁠ Trump is suing The New York Times for a jaw-dropping $15 billion, calling it a “virtual mouthpiece” for Democrats and accusing it of defamation over its Epstein coverage. 10.⁠ UK fighter jets are being sent to Poland as part of NATO’s Eastern Sentry mission, after Russian drones entered Polish airspace in what’s being called Putin’s most serious violation of NATO territory yet. The UK joins Denmark, France, and Germany in reinforcing NATO’s eastern flank with jets, Patriots, and refuelling support from RAF Brize Norton.

🚨12 HOUR NEWS RECAP 1.⁠ Tyler Robinson, 22, the trade school student accused of executing Charlie Kirk with a single rifle shot from a rooftop, is set to appear in court later today via video from jail. 2.⁠ FBI Director Kash Patel said the suspect in the Charlie Kirk shooting had confessed to killing him: “After the shooting and assassination of Charlie Kirk, the suspect admitted to it.” 3.⁠ After striking over 850 Hamas targets, Israeli forces have begun a full-scale ground invasion of Gaza City. Thousands are fleeing south in what is now Gaza’s largest displacement wave since the assault began. 4.⁠ U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio landed in Doha just one week after an Israeli strike in Qatar targeting Hamas leaders mid-negotiation. Rubio says the U.S will still push Qatar to continue mediating the Gaza war - despite the attack taking place on its soil. 5.⁠ After a massive overnight assault across multiple regions, Zelensky said Ukraine is under relentless “aerial terror” and urged Europe to deploy a joint, multi-layered air defense system. 6.⁠ Trump ordered a second strike on a boat carrying drugs in the Caribbean: “The Strike occurred while these confirmed narcoterrorists from Venezuela were in International Waters transporting illegal narcotics.” 7.⁠ American military officers made a surprise visit to huge war drills in Belarus, where Russia was showing off hypersonic missiles and even practicing with tactical nukes. Belarus’s defense minister told the U.S. team they could watch “whatever they want.” 8.⁠ A UN Commission of Inquiry has concluded Israel is committing genocide in Gaza - citing mass killings, forced displacement, aid blockages, and the destruction of a fertility clinic. 9.⁠ Trump is suing The New York Times for a jaw-dropping $15 billion, calling it a “virtual mouthpiece” for Democrats and accusing it of defamation over its Epstein coverage. 10.⁠ UK fighter jets are being sent to Poland as part of NATO’s Eastern Sentry mission, after Russian drones entered Polish airspace in what’s being called Putin’s most serious violation of NATO territory yet. The UK joins Denmark, France, and Germany in reinforcing NATO’s eastern flank with jets, Patriots, and refuelling support from RAF Brize Norton.

Mario Nawfal

318,613 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce

🚨 OPERATIONAL UPDATE: TALKS ADVANCE, PRESSURE HOLDS - Reporting Window: Last 24 Hours *⃣ If you find these reports useful, PLEASE consider sharing them, this is how more people get access to clear, open source breakdowns of what’s actually happening. Diplomacy is now fully underway, but the underlying structure of the war has not changed. U.S. and Iranian officials are actively engaged in talks in Islamabad, while Israel continues operations in Lebanon and regional pressure points remain unresolved. Negotiations are real, but they are happening alongside continued military activity, not in place of it. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🧠 MY ASSESSMENT The disconnect in this phase of the war is no longer just military. It is perceptual. Iran is negotiating like a peer power. It is not operating like one. The regime has taken real damage across leadership, infrastructure, and military capability. That much is clear from weeks of sustained strikes and the cumulative effect they’ve had on its systems. At the same time, the United States and Israel retain clear escalation dominance, including the ability to threaten core Iranian infrastructure on a scale that would put the regime itself at risk. And yet, Iran continues to negotiate from a maximalist position. That is not because it holds superior leverage. It is because the leverage it does have is concentrated in disruption, not control. Hormuz remains the clearest example. Iran does not need to shut it permanently to create pressure. It only needs to make it unstable enough to raise global economic costs and force urgency into negotiations. The same applies to its proxy network. Hezbollah does not need to win in Lebanon. It only needs to remain active enough to prevent a clean separation of fronts. So the reality is more specific than either extreme. Iran is not negotiating from strength. But it is not negotiating without leverage. It is negotiating from a weakened position, using time, disruption, and regional pressure to offset what it has lost militarily. That is what makes this phase unstable. The United States is trying to convert military advantage into a negotiated outcome. Iran is trying to convert limited leverage into constraints on that outcome. Israel is continuing to act where it is not constrained. Those dynamics do not resolve cleanly. They drag. And the longer they drag, the more the outcome depends not just on capability, but on tolerance for escalation and time. Now let's break down all the different theaters contributing to this assessment: ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🇵🇰 ISLAMABAD TALKS: REAL, HIGH-STAKES, BUT FAR APART The most significant development in this window is the shift to direct U.S.–Iran engagement in Pakistan. Senior delegations are now physically present in Islamabad under heavy security, with Pakistan acting as the central intermediary trying to convert a temporary ceasefire into something more durable. But the gap between the two sides remains wide: • Iran’s reported framework focuses on sanctions relief, security guarantees, and preserving proxy influence • The U.S. framework demands nuclear dismantlement, missile limits, and a permanently open Hormuz Both sides are treating these as opening positions, not final terms. At the same time, Iranian negotiators are still pushing to include Lebanon in ceasefire guarantees, a condition that continues to complicate progress. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🇱🇧 LEBANON REMAINS ACTIVE Despite the diplomatic push, Lebanon remains an active combat zone. Israeli strikes continued across southern Lebanon in this window, including deadly strikes in Nabatieh and surrounding areas. Reporting indicates: • More than two dozen killed in a single strike event, including members of Lebanese security forces • Additional strikes on urban areas, shops, and infrastructure • Continued clashes on the ground, with IDF personnel wounded in exchanges along the border At the same time, Hezbollah fire has not stopped entirely, with intermittent launches toward northern Israel continuing. The key continuity point holds: Lebanon is not covered by the ceasefire structure being negotiated in Pakistan, and it is not behaving like it is. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚓ HORMUZ: STILL UNRESOLVED The Strait of Hormuz remains the central strategic lever. U.S. officials are signaling active efforts to secure the waterway, including naval movements and mine-clearing operations, though some claims remain unverified. At the same time, Iran continues to threaten rapid retaliation against U.S. vessels operating in the area. This is the same unresolved issue sitting underneath the negotiations: • The ceasefire depends on Hormuz being open and stable • That condition has not yet been fully met • Both sides are still signaling willingness to escalate if it breaks down ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🌍 REGIONAL PRESSURE AND SPILLOVER The regional layer of the war remains active even as talks proceed. Recent reporting highlights: • Continued Iranian-linked pressure on Gulf infrastructure, which has already disrupted Saudi industrial capacity in recent days • Pakistan increasing its own military posture, including sending fighter jets to Saudi Arabia as part of broader defense coordination • European pressure, particularly from France, to expand the ceasefire framework to include Lebanon This reinforces the broader pattern: The war is no longer confined to one front, and it cannot be easily paused in one place without consequences elsewhere. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🇮🇷 INTERNAL IRAN DYNAMICS Additional reporting in this window provides a clearer picture inside Iran. • Iran’s current Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, remains seriously injured from earlier strikes but is still actively governing through remote coordination • The regime continues to maintain tight control domestically, including extended internet blackouts • There are increasing indications of information control and narrative shaping as negotiations proceed Separately, reporting suggests the regime has encouraged civilians to position themselves near key infrastructure as a deterrence tactic, reinforcing a pattern of using civilian presence as part of its defensive posture. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📌 WHAT MATTERS MOST RIGHT NOW • Direct U.S.–Iran talks are now fully underway in Pakistan, but positions remain far apart • Lebanon remains an active battlefield, with continued Israeli strikes and ongoing casualties • Hormuz is still not fully stabilized, leaving the entire diplomatic framework conditional • Regional actors are adjusting posture, including Gulf states and Pakistan, signaling continued instability • Iran continues to operate from a constrained but still functional position, both militarily and internally

🚨 OPERATIONAL UPDATE: TALKS ADVANCE, PRESSURE HOLDS - Reporting Window: Last 24 Hours *⃣ If you find these reports useful, PLEASE consider sharing them, this is how more people get access to clear, open source breakdowns of what’s actually happening. Diplomacy is now fully underway, but the underlying structure of the war has not changed. U.S. and Iranian officials are actively engaged in talks in Islamabad, while Israel continues operations in Lebanon and regional pressure points remain unresolved. Negotiations are real, but they are happening alongside continued military activity, not in place of it. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🧠 MY ASSESSMENT The disconnect in this phase of the war is no longer just military. It is perceptual. Iran is negotiating like a peer power. It is not operating like one. The regime has taken real damage across leadership, infrastructure, and military capability. That much is clear from weeks of sustained strikes and the cumulative effect they’ve had on its systems. At the same time, the United States and Israel retain clear escalation dominance, including the ability to threaten core Iranian infrastructure on a scale that would put the regime itself at risk. And yet, Iran continues to negotiate from a maximalist position. That is not because it holds superior leverage. It is because the leverage it does have is concentrated in disruption, not control. Hormuz remains the clearest example. Iran does not need to shut it permanently to create pressure. It only needs to make it unstable enough to raise global economic costs and force urgency into negotiations. The same applies to its proxy network. Hezbollah does not need to win in Lebanon. It only needs to remain active enough to prevent a clean separation of fronts. So the reality is more specific than either extreme. Iran is not negotiating from strength. But it is not negotiating without leverage. It is negotiating from a weakened position, using time, disruption, and regional pressure to offset what it has lost militarily. That is what makes this phase unstable. The United States is trying to convert military advantage into a negotiated outcome. Iran is trying to convert limited leverage into constraints on that outcome. Israel is continuing to act where it is not constrained. Those dynamics do not resolve cleanly. They drag. And the longer they drag, the more the outcome depends not just on capability, but on tolerance for escalation and time. Now let's break down all the different theaters contributing to this assessment: ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🇵🇰 ISLAMABAD TALKS: REAL, HIGH-STAKES, BUT FAR APART The most significant development in this window is the shift to direct U.S.–Iran engagement in Pakistan. Senior delegations are now physically present in Islamabad under heavy security, with Pakistan acting as the central intermediary trying to convert a temporary ceasefire into something more durable. But the gap between the two sides remains wide: • Iran’s reported framework focuses on sanctions relief, security guarantees, and preserving proxy influence • The U.S. framework demands nuclear dismantlement, missile limits, and a permanently open Hormuz Both sides are treating these as opening positions, not final terms. At the same time, Iranian negotiators are still pushing to include Lebanon in ceasefire guarantees, a condition that continues to complicate progress. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🇱🇧 LEBANON REMAINS ACTIVE Despite the diplomatic push, Lebanon remains an active combat zone. Israeli strikes continued across southern Lebanon in this window, including deadly strikes in Nabatieh and surrounding areas. Reporting indicates: • More than two dozen killed in a single strike event, including members of Lebanese security forces • Additional strikes on urban areas, shops, and infrastructure • Continued clashes on the ground, with IDF personnel wounded in exchanges along the border At the same time, Hezbollah fire has not stopped entirely, with intermittent launches toward northern Israel continuing. The key continuity point holds: Lebanon is not covered by the ceasefire structure being negotiated in Pakistan, and it is not behaving like it is. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚓ HORMUZ: STILL UNRESOLVED The Strait of Hormuz remains the central strategic lever. U.S. officials are signaling active efforts to secure the waterway, including naval movements and mine-clearing operations, though some claims remain unverified. At the same time, Iran continues to threaten rapid retaliation against U.S. vessels operating in the area. This is the same unresolved issue sitting underneath the negotiations: • The ceasefire depends on Hormuz being open and stable • That condition has not yet been fully met • Both sides are still signaling willingness to escalate if it breaks down ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🌍 REGIONAL PRESSURE AND SPILLOVER The regional layer of the war remains active even as talks proceed. Recent reporting highlights: • Continued Iranian-linked pressure on Gulf infrastructure, which has already disrupted Saudi industrial capacity in recent days • Pakistan increasing its own military posture, including sending fighter jets to Saudi Arabia as part of broader defense coordination • European pressure, particularly from France, to expand the ceasefire framework to include Lebanon This reinforces the broader pattern: The war is no longer confined to one front, and it cannot be easily paused in one place without consequences elsewhere. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🇮🇷 INTERNAL IRAN DYNAMICS Additional reporting in this window provides a clearer picture inside Iran. • Iran’s current Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, remains seriously injured from earlier strikes but is still actively governing through remote coordination • The regime continues to maintain tight control domestically, including extended internet blackouts • There are increasing indications of information control and narrative shaping as negotiations proceed Separately, reporting suggests the regime has encouraged civilians to position themselves near key infrastructure as a deterrence tactic, reinforcing a pattern of using civilian presence as part of its defensive posture. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📌 WHAT MATTERS MOST RIGHT NOW • Direct U.S.–Iran talks are now fully underway in Pakistan, but positions remain far apart • Lebanon remains an active battlefield, with continued Israeli strikes and ongoing casualties • Hormuz is still not fully stabilized, leaving the entire diplomatic framework conditional • Regional actors are adjusting posture, including Gulf states and Pakistan, signaling continued instability • Iran continues to operate from a constrained but still functional position, both militarily and internally

Inside_Israel_Intel

15,357 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

🚨 OPERATIONAL UPDATE: ISRAEL U.S. WAR WITH THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC - Reporting Window: Last 24 Hours Heavy strike activity continued across Iran, while Iran maintained intermittent but still damaging attacks into Israel and across the Gulf. Open-source reporting, civilian footage, and mainstream outlets including The New York Times, AP, The Guardian, Ynet, and The Jerusalem Post all point to the same picture: sustained pressure across multiple fronts with no meaningful slowdown. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ✈️ INSIDE IRAN The most concrete strike detail in this window is the continued targeting of Iran’s energy and industrial base. Multiple sources, including The Guardian, AP, and Ynet, confirm Israeli strikes on the South Pars gas field, specifically a major petrochemical facility responsible for roughly half of Iran’s petrochemical production. Additional reporting indicates that, combined with prior strikes, a large portion of Iran’s export-linked petrochemical capacity has now been taken offline. This sits alongside continued strikes in and around Tehran, with open-source reporting and local accounts indicating ongoing explosions, air defense activity, and damage to both infrastructure and regime-linked sites. At the same time, Majid Khademi, head of the IRGC Intelligence Organization, was killed in strikes attributed to Israel and the United States. That removes a senior figure tied directly to internal security, intelligence coordination, and regime control. Taken together, this window reinforces what has already been visible: *⃣ Energy and industrial infrastructure are being hit directly *⃣ Senior regime figures remain active targets *⃣ Tehran itself continues to absorb repeated strike activity ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🚀 IRANIAN STRIKES ON ISRAEL Iran continued to launch missiles into Israel, with the most detailed reporting coming from Ynet and corroborated by open-source imagery and emergency response reports. A cluster munition missile dispersed submunitions across central Israel, creating 20 to 28 separate impact sites across the Tel Aviv metropolitan area. Residential buildings, vehicles, and infrastructure were damaged, and at least one person was wounded. Separately, rescue operations in Haifa confirmed four civilian fatalities after a direct missile strike caused a structural collapse in a residential building. This is consistent with what you’ve already been reporting: *⃣ Iran still has the ability to penetrate defenses at times *⃣ Civilian impact remains real even at reduced launch tempo *⃣ Cluster munitions continue to increase the number of impact sites per strike ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔥 LEBANON FRONT Lebanon remained active, though not the central focus of this window. Israeli strikes continued in Beirut’s southern suburbs, targeting Hezbollah positions, with large secondary explosions and visible damage. Reporting from Asharq Al-Awsat and additional regional sources indicates continued evacuation patterns and reduced civilian presence in targeted areas. There is also continued reporting of internal Lebanese tension, with criticism of Hezbollah growing in some areas as strikes expand geographically. This front remains active, but its role in this window is supportive rather than dominant. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🌍 GULF AND REGIONAL PRESSURE Iran continued applying pressure beyond Israel, particularly in the Gulf. Reporting from The National indicates Kuwait has now intercepted hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles since late February, with continued targeting of: *⃣ Oil refineries *⃣ Power infrastructure *⃣ Desalination facilities Daily life in Kuwait is continuing, but under persistent alert conditions. This reinforces the broader pattern already established that Iran is sustaining regional pressure even as its direct strike tempo into Israel fluctuates. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚓ HORMUZ AND THE POLITICAL CLOCK The most consequential non-kinetic development remains tied to the Strait of Hormuz. Reporting across The New York Times, AP, and Al Jazeera confirms that the U.S. has again issued a deadline for Iran to reopen the strait, with explicit threats to strike power plants, bridges, and national infrastructure if that does not occur. Iran has responded by signaling it will retaliate if those strikes are carried out. At the same time, there are indications of ongoing diplomatic efforts, including proposals being circulated through regional intermediaries, though none appear close to resolution. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📌 WHAT MATTERS MOST RIGHT NOW • Israeli strikes continue to hit energy infrastructure and regime leadership targets inside Iran • Iran maintains the ability to cause civilian damage inside Israel, including multi-impact cluster strikes • Civilian fatalities inside Israel were confirmed in this window • Hezbollah positions in Beirut continue to be targeted • Gulf infrastructure remains under sustained Iranian pressure • The Hormuz deadline remains the clearest trigger for possible escalation ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🧠 ASSESSMENT The pattern across the war is holding. Israel continues applying pressure across military, industrial, and economic systems inside Iran. Iran continues to respond within its constraints, maintaining the ability to strike while distributing pressure across multiple fronts. The most important variable is not a new development. It is timing. The U.S. has now attached a clear deadline to Hormuz, with specific targets named publicly. If that deadline passes without resolution, escalation will not be gradual. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📖 BOOK PLUG If you want the deeper context behind everything you’re watching play out right now, I break it down in: Contested Land, Uncontested Truth It goes beyond daily updates and explains the history, strategy, and narratives shaping this conflict. Continued thanks to Michael W for continuing to contribute to the open-source picture behind these reports.

🚨 OPERATIONAL UPDATE: ISRAEL U.S. WAR WITH THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC - Reporting Window: Last 24 Hours Heavy strike activity continued across Iran, while Iran maintained intermittent but still damaging attacks into Israel and across the Gulf. Open-source reporting, civilian footage, and mainstream outlets including The New York Times, AP, The Guardian, Ynet, and The Jerusalem Post all point to the same picture: sustained pressure across multiple fronts with no meaningful slowdown. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ✈️ INSIDE IRAN The most concrete strike detail in this window is the continued targeting of Iran’s energy and industrial base. Multiple sources, including The Guardian, AP, and Ynet, confirm Israeli strikes on the South Pars gas field, specifically a major petrochemical facility responsible for roughly half of Iran’s petrochemical production. Additional reporting indicates that, combined with prior strikes, a large portion of Iran’s export-linked petrochemical capacity has now been taken offline. This sits alongside continued strikes in and around Tehran, with open-source reporting and local accounts indicating ongoing explosions, air defense activity, and damage to both infrastructure and regime-linked sites. At the same time, Majid Khademi, head of the IRGC Intelligence Organization, was killed in strikes attributed to Israel and the United States. That removes a senior figure tied directly to internal security, intelligence coordination, and regime control. Taken together, this window reinforces what has already been visible: ⃣ Energy and industrial infrastructure are being hit directly ⃣ Senior regime figures remain active targets ⃣ Tehran itself continues to absorb repeated strike activity ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🚀 IRANIAN STRIKES ON ISRAEL Iran continued to launch missiles into Israel, with the most detailed reporting coming from Ynet and corroborated by open-source imagery and emergency response reports. A cluster munition missile dispersed submunitions across central Israel, creating 20 to 28 separate impact sites across the Tel Aviv metropolitan area. Residential buildings, vehicles, and infrastructure were damaged, and at least one person was wounded. Separately, rescue operations in Haifa confirmed four civilian fatalities after a direct missile strike caused a structural collapse in a residential building. This is consistent with what you’ve already been reporting: ⃣ Iran still has the ability to penetrate defenses at times ⃣ Civilian impact remains real even at reduced launch tempo ⃣ Cluster munitions continue to increase the number of impact sites per strike ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔥 LEBANON FRONT Lebanon remained active, though not the central focus of this window. Israeli strikes continued in Beirut’s southern suburbs, targeting Hezbollah positions, with large secondary explosions and visible damage. Reporting from Asharq Al-Awsat and additional regional sources indicates continued evacuation patterns and reduced civilian presence in targeted areas. There is also continued reporting of internal Lebanese tension, with criticism of Hezbollah growing in some areas as strikes expand geographically. This front remains active, but its role in this window is supportive rather than dominant. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🌍 GULF AND REGIONAL PRESSURE Iran continued applying pressure beyond Israel, particularly in the Gulf. Reporting from The National indicates Kuwait has now intercepted hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles since late February, with continued targeting of: ⃣ Oil refineries ⃣ Power infrastructure *⃣ Desalination facilities Daily life in Kuwait is continuing, but under persistent alert conditions. This reinforces the broader pattern already established that Iran is sustaining regional pressure even as its direct strike tempo into Israel fluctuates. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚓ HORMUZ AND THE POLITICAL CLOCK The most consequential non-kinetic development remains tied to the Strait of Hormuz. Reporting across The New York Times, AP, and Al Jazeera confirms that the U.S. has again issued a deadline for Iran to reopen the strait, with explicit threats to strike power plants, bridges, and national infrastructure if that does not occur. Iran has responded by signaling it will retaliate if those strikes are carried out. At the same time, there are indications of ongoing diplomatic efforts, including proposals being circulated through regional intermediaries, though none appear close to resolution. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📌 WHAT MATTERS MOST RIGHT NOW • Israeli strikes continue to hit energy infrastructure and regime leadership targets inside Iran • Iran maintains the ability to cause civilian damage inside Israel, including multi-impact cluster strikes • Civilian fatalities inside Israel were confirmed in this window • Hezbollah positions in Beirut continue to be targeted • Gulf infrastructure remains under sustained Iranian pressure • The Hormuz deadline remains the clearest trigger for possible escalation ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🧠 ASSESSMENT The pattern across the war is holding. Israel continues applying pressure across military, industrial, and economic systems inside Iran. Iran continues to respond within its constraints, maintaining the ability to strike while distributing pressure across multiple fronts. The most important variable is not a new development. It is timing. The U.S. has now attached a clear deadline to Hormuz, with specific targets named publicly. If that deadline passes without resolution, escalation will not be gradual. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📖 BOOK PLUG If you want the deeper context behind everything you’re watching play out right now, I break it down in: Contested Land, Uncontested Truth It goes beyond daily updates and explains the history, strategy, and narratives shaping this conflict. Continued thanks to Michael W for continuing to contribute to the open-source picture behind these reports.

Inside_Israel_Intel

24,295 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

Iran war day 115 | Israel already breached the ceasefire! Boycotts work! Indeed Boycotts work and Israel noticed! Per Channel 12 Hebrew: There’s an unprecedented global boycott of all things Israeli amid people noticing how awful these people are! ‘We’ve never seen such traction before’ they say. Oyy vey! Starbucks has lost over $12B from boycotts and McDonald’s over $7B Here’s a list of companies to co boycott: They even killed a 76 year old, peace loving conservationist! -The kosher mafia killed acclaimed conservationist Mona Khalil! -she died after being wounded in an Israeli strike on her home in Lebanon two weeks ago. -The 76-year-old spent years trying to protect endangered sea turtles and Lebanon's Mediterranean coastline. -where Hamas and Hezbollah hiding with turtles? Since Israel has been forced into a ceasefire, kosher terrorists took their frustrations out on a Spanish food vendor! Israeli invaders attacked a street food vendor in Spain for raising the Palestinian flag! Not to worry as they still killed 2 people in southern Lebanon while partially withdrawing! -Israel did a partial and limited withdrawal from some occupied areas in southern Lebanon -they think withdrawing from stolen land is somehow a favour to Lebanese cuck president Joseph Aoun. - and this is while kosher terrorists opened fire in southern Lebanon, killing 2 people. Trump was asked if he’s confident that the ceasefire is still holding while it was already breached as expected? Trump: “Well, look, they've been fighting each other for years, for decades. We'll have to see what happens, but it will be alright.” How does the New York Post feel on trump’s deal? New York Post trolls Trump with "Easy Mullah" headline -The publication plays on "Easy Money" to mock Trump's claim of a "magnificent deal" with Iran. -Democrat-aligned outlets are pointing out that Tehran gets assets unfrozen and a real prospect of sanctions relief, while Washington's only "trophy" is the conditionally open SOH - which was open before the White House decided to strike Iran. Trump must also feel great about the markets as a $1 trillion was wiped and the spacex hype crashed and burned! Morningstar’s has a $62 fair value to Oppenheimer’s $250 target. Spacex sits below $150, barely above the IPO price. The UN confirms that Israel not only committed a genocide in Gaza but in the West Bank too. -Around 30% of Gaza War Casualties Were Children -or sacrifices for their God Baal/Moloch -kosher terrorists deliberately targeted Palestinian children, resulting in genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes in Gaza, and war crimes in the occupied West Bank -and they still play the victim card! Meanwhile both Lebanon and Palestine remain under judeo occupation! What does US Senator Bruce Mark from Pennsylvania think about the Iran war loss? Marks: Iran is a very resilient country •We realized that convincing Iranians to change their views was not that easy. •The war against Iran taught the US many lessons. -Trump learned nothing though. •Maybe we should have thought a little before doing what we did. -maybe think before you act and speak in general!

Iran war day 115 | Israel already breached the ceasefire! Boycotts work! Indeed Boycotts work and Israel noticed! Per Channel 12 Hebrew: There’s an unprecedented global boycott of all things Israeli amid people noticing how awful these people are! ‘We’ve never seen such traction before’ they say. Oyy vey! Starbucks has lost over $12B from boycotts and McDonald’s over $7B Here’s a list of companies to co boycott: They even killed a 76 year old, peace loving conservationist! -The kosher mafia killed acclaimed conservationist Mona Khalil! -she died after being wounded in an Israeli strike on her home in Lebanon two weeks ago. -The 76-year-old spent years trying to protect endangered sea turtles and Lebanon's Mediterranean coastline. -where Hamas and Hezbollah hiding with turtles? Since Israel has been forced into a ceasefire, kosher terrorists took their frustrations out on a Spanish food vendor! Israeli invaders attacked a street food vendor in Spain for raising the Palestinian flag! Not to worry as they still killed 2 people in southern Lebanon while partially withdrawing! -Israel did a partial and limited withdrawal from some occupied areas in southern Lebanon -they think withdrawing from stolen land is somehow a favour to Lebanese cuck president Joseph Aoun. - and this is while kosher terrorists opened fire in southern Lebanon, killing 2 people. Trump was asked if he’s confident that the ceasefire is still holding while it was already breached as expected? Trump: “Well, look, they've been fighting each other for years, for decades. We'll have to see what happens, but it will be alright.” How does the New York Post feel on trump’s deal? New York Post trolls Trump with "Easy Mullah" headline -The publication plays on "Easy Money" to mock Trump's claim of a "magnificent deal" with Iran. -Democrat-aligned outlets are pointing out that Tehran gets assets unfrozen and a real prospect of sanctions relief, while Washington's only "trophy" is the conditionally open SOH - which was open before the White House decided to strike Iran. Trump must also feel great about the markets as a $1 trillion was wiped and the spacex hype crashed and burned! Morningstar’s has a $62 fair value to Oppenheimer’s $250 target. Spacex sits below $150, barely above the IPO price. The UN confirms that Israel not only committed a genocide in Gaza but in the West Bank too. -Around 30% of Gaza War Casualties Were Children -or sacrifices for their God Baal/Moloch -kosher terrorists deliberately targeted Palestinian children, resulting in genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes in Gaza, and war crimes in the occupied West Bank -and they still play the victim card! Meanwhile both Lebanon and Palestine remain under judeo occupation! What does US Senator Bruce Mark from Pennsylvania think about the Iran war loss? Marks: Iran is a very resilient country •We realized that convincing Iranians to change their views was not that easy. •The war against Iran taught the US many lessons. -Trump learned nothing though. •Maybe we should have thought a little before doing what we did. -maybe think before you act and speak in general!

Truth_teller 🇷🇺

13,322 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce