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Is 💩coining a degenerative disease? 🤷‍♂️ Judge for yourself Stay Humble Stack Sats #Btc

19,138 views • 2 years ago •via X (Twitter)

8 Comments

Richard “Dick” Whitman (🌎/21M)'s profile picture
Richard “Dick” Whitman (🌎/21M)2 years ago

They’re both pieces of human garbage

Shane Hazel's profile picture
Shane Hazel2 years ago

He did it! He went full Simple Jack. Holy shit.

Crypto Viking's profile picture
Crypto Viking2 years ago

It was a fraud from the beginning. What still lingers in my head is that Alameda had insider access to data on FTX... And they STILL went bust shitcoining

Steve B's profile picture
Steve B2 years ago

The symptom is 💩coinery. The root problem is fiat addiction.

Ali BABA's profile picture
Ali BABA2 years ago

F...ing idiot!

Study Bitcoin's profile picture
Study Bitcoin2 years ago

🥴

Mateo Didomenico's profile picture
Mateo Didomenico2 years ago

You’re cancelled. @kevinolearytv

TheBigTexan's profile picture
TheBigTexan2 years ago

@BigSeanHarris What a tool

Related Videos

I ran a BRUTAL 3-year MSTR stress test. Not the cute kind. The “Bitcoin crashes 55% from here, mNAV collapses below 0.50x, capital markets are closed, cash gets burned, BTC has to be sold to pay the senior stack, and everyone on X is filming their victory lap in the clown mirror” kind. Starting point: BTC: $59,135 MSTR: $87.64 Total BTC: 847,363 Cash: $1.4B CEBE: 138,161 sats/share Claim ratio: 41.5% Then the model nukes BTC to $26,611 by month 6. The senior stack does exactly what fixed-dollar claims do when collateral crashes. It explodes in BTC terms. Senior claims go from 351,567 BTC to 819,073 BTC. Claim ratio spikes from 41.5% to 96.7%. Common equity BTC collapses from 495,796 BTC to 28,290 BTC. CEBE gets annihilated: 138,161 sats/share → 7,884 sats/share. MSTR stock gets modeled from $87.64 to $1.01. That is the horror movie. Would the stock price actually go this low in that scenario? I doubt it. 2022 had NEGATIVE -14,000+ of common equity sats exposure and the stock never dropped below $10. But here is where the bear case gets uncomfortable. The model assumes: Zero new BTC buys. Zero common issuance. $167.7M/month of obligations. Cash gone by month 9. BTC sales begin after cash is exhausted. Over 3 years, MSTR sells 115,727 BTC to keep servicing the stack. That is real damage. But it still ends with 731,636 BTC. Final state: BTC: $48,498 MSTR: $51.86 mNAV: 1.40x Common equity BTC: 274,093 CEBE: 76,380 sats/share Claim ratio: 62.5% MSTR survives. The common gets dragged through flaming glass for 18 months, but it survives. The real risk is not “instant bankruptcy" like all the FUD spreaders are telling you. The real risk is CEBE compression while fixed-dollar senior claims temporarily consume almost the entire Bitcoin stack in BTC-equivalent terms. Survival is not comfort. But death spiral? This model says no.

Adam Livingston

122,090 views • 1 month ago