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Jeff Currie: Capital rotation into real assets would trigger explosive price moves. Just picture the difference in size: - MAG7: ~20T USD - All mining shares: ~2T - All energy companies: ~7T That's the market cap. The free float, the shares available at any moment, is a fraction of...

37,944 次观看 • 4 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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David Friedberg: Michael Burry’s Datacenter Math is Wrong “I actually think Michael Burberry's got this wrong.” “What Michael Burry is saying is that all of these hyperscalers have extended their depreciation schedule or the useful life of their data centers by roughly 2x, which cuts the operating costs in half when they report it in earnings. And so it's making their earnings inflate.” “So he's claiming they're cooking the books. Google first made this change in Q1 of 2021, where they said the servers are now going from 3 to 4 years. Separately in 2021, Google took networking equipment from 3 to 5 years. And then in 2023, they took it from 5 to 6 years.” “And so this is a result of this effort where they went in and did an analysis. So what happened?” “What happened in the data centers is that the data centers transitioned from being primarily data storage and data transfer systems, where you would use hard drives and RAM and memory to store data and then transmit it back out, to being data processing centers because of the AI boom.” “So as AI became more important in the data center, more of the dollars that are going into data centers were allocated towards chips from data storage, which initially was hard drives.” “And then suddenly, when you put these processors in to process the data to do AI, the majority of the spend and the majority of the energy is going towards the processors.” “I made some calls and I checked around with some other friends, and everyone says the same thing: that these 7-8 year old TPUs and GPUs that are sitting in the data centers are still being used and they're being used at 100% utilization.” “So that actually justifies and validates the depreciation schedule being much longer versus shorter.”

The All-In Podcast

304,297 次观看 • 8 个月前

This is the most SHAMELESS structural manipulation of a major index I've ever seen. SpaceX is preparing what could be the largest IPO in history. Target valuation: $1.75 trillion. That would make it the sixth-largest company in America on day one. And Nasdaq wants the listing so badly they're literally CHANGING how the Nasdaq-100 works. In February, Nasdaq published a "consultation" proposing sweeping changes to how companies enter the index. The timing is pure coincidence, of course. Just like it's pure coincidence that SpaceX has reportedly made fast index inclusion a CONDITION of listing on Nasdaq. Here's what they're proposing: A new "Fast Entry" rule would let any newly listed company whose market cap ranks in the top 40 of current Nasdaq-100 members get added to the index after just 15 trading days. No seasoning period. No liquidity requirements. Completely exempt from the standards every other company had to meet. Currently, new public companies typically wait up to a year before they're eligible for major index inclusion. That waiting period exists for a reason. It lets the market establish real price discovery. It protects passive investors from being forced into untested, illiquid stocks. And Nasdaq wants to throw all of that out. For ONE listing. But the Fast Entry rule isn't even the worst part... The real scandal is the 5x float multiplier. Right now, the S&P 500 uses a free-float adjusted methodology. If only 5% of a company's shares are available for public trading, the index weights you at 5% of total market cap. That's common sense. You weight a company based on what investors can actually buy. Nasdaq's current methodology already uses total market cap rather than free-float for weighting. But for very low-float stocks, they at least had a 10% minimum float threshold. Under the new proposal, that threshold DISAPPEARS entirely. Instead, any stock with less than 20% free float gets weighted at FIVE TIMES its actual float percentage, capped at 100%. Do the math on SpaceX: If SpaceX IPOs at $1.75 trillion and floats 5% of its shares, there would be roughly $87.5 billion worth of stock available for public trading. Under Nasdaq's proposed 5x multiplier, the index would weight SpaceX at 25% of its total market cap. That means passive funds would be forced to buy as if SpaceX were a $437.5 billion company. But only $87.5 billion of stock actually exists in the market. You are forcing hundreds of billions in passive buying into a $87.5 billion float. QQQ alone manages nearly $400 billion. The total Nasdaq-100 ecosystem represents over $1.4 trillion in exposure across ETFs, mutual funds, structured notes, and derivatives. Every single passive vehicle tracking this index would be REQUIRED to buy SpaceX at whatever price the market dictates. On Day 15. With zero price discovery. Zero track record as a public company. And a float so thin you could read through it. So what this actually does is it creates a structural wealth transfer mechanism. The passive bid from index funds pushes the stock price higher. That higher price benefits exactly one group of people: the insiders and early investors who own the other 95% of the shares. And when lock-up periods expire 90 to 180 days later? Those insiders sell into the artificially inflated passive bid. Your 401(k) is the exit liquidity. This is the fundamental corruption of indexing. Indexing used to be brilliant. Low cost. Efficient. You were free-riding on the price discovery done by active managers. The index reflected the market. Now the index IS the market. Trillions of dollars flow blindly into whatever the index tells them to buy. And the people who control the index methodology are changing the rules to serve the interests of a single IPO candidate. The S&P 500 requires companies to have at least 50% of shares available for public trading. It requires 6 to 12 months of seasoning. It uses free-float adjusted weighting so passive investors aren't buying phantom liquidity. Nasdaq is doing the exact opposite. 15 days. No float requirement. 5x multiplier on insider-held shares. Every passive investor in QQQ, QQQM, and every fund benchmarked to the Nasdaq-100 should understand what's about to happen: The rules are being rewritten to benefit IPO issuers and early-stage insiders, and your capital is the tool being USED to enrich them. 45 years in this business and I've watched Wall Street find creative new ways to separate retail investors from their money in every cycle. But usually they at least try to be subtle about it. This one they put in a PDF and called it a "consultation." What's your take?

George Noble

868,845 次观看 • 4 个月前

Why is Palantir so expensive? You don’t need to look at spreadsheets. Just consider this: The market knows NVIDIA sells the shovels for the AI goldrush. The market is realizing that AI isn’t being monetized at the commercial level because although it’s cool, it’s not unlocking any real insights yet. The market now anticipates that Palantir is selling the maps to find the gold…. Gold being AI-driven insights that actually solve difficult problems. Software that works. Since 2021, NVIDIA’s revenue has exploded from $16B to $96B. Palantir’s TTM revenue is $2.5B. The trajectory of Palantir has changed since AIP released in 2023, which is enabling the company to scale. If NVIDIA sells the shovels, and Palantir provides the maps, then the market believes Palantir will see the same explosion of growth within the commercial market, which the market believes has an almost unlimited TAM for Palantir. A lot of people missed out on NVIDIA. While Palantir’s market cap is expensive at $95B, it is nothing compared to NVIDIA’s $3.26T market cap in terms of size. The market doesn’t want to miss out on the next big thing. At this point, investors have thrown all standard methods of valuation out of the window… Those days were years ago. To me, at this point, buying the stock is betting on NVIDIA-like growth (No I’m not saying the company will shoot to a $3T market cap in 2 years — you get the point). If the company does not show this sort of revenue growth, the stock will be punished. This is the risk investors are willing to take. While I am very bullish on the company in the long run, I, like everyone else, have no clue what will actually happen in the short term. This is not a stock to play on the short term. This is why I continue to hold, regardless of how “expensive” the stock gets. I personally believe Palantir does in fact carry the potential to see explosive revenue growth to more than enough justify its current ratios. I’m not saying it will happen this quarter. But the potential is there. It’s a matter of when, in my opinion. I would never risk selling what I view as my golden ticket to wealth with the justification of “it’s too expensive, the price will come back down and I can buy even more then”. If the stock crashes, I can start buying more shares regardless — I don’t want to get greedy and try to time the market. I would never forgive myself if I sold and the stock ended up soaring so high that even after a crash, it would be far too expensive for me to get back in with my original position size (plus capital gains tax). I don’t care who agrees with me or who thinks I’m crazy for saying this — it’s a real risk to me and I’m not willing to take it. This is not me telling you to buy $PLTR. My average is $8.50. Only you can decide what is right, and your decision should be made on your own level of conviction from studying the company — nothing else. This is me telling you why it’s so expensive. Again, I believe that if the stock does not continue to crush earnings each quarter, even the slightest miss, the stock will be punished in the short term. For longs, it’s another opportunity to accumulate more. This is my opinion, of course. 5-10 years from now, we’ll see who was right. Chips & Ontology.

Jack Prescott

258,450 次观看 • 1 年前