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Why is Palantir so expensive? You don’t need to look at spreadsheets. Just consider this: The market knows NVIDIA sells the shovels for the AI goldrush. The market is realizing that AI isn’t being monetized at the commercial level because although it’s cool, it’s not unlocking any real insights...

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Jack Prescott

15,607 subscribers

278,422 views • 1 year ago •via X (Twitter)

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Nikolias Goninus's profile picture
Nikolias Goninus1 year ago

Great read. You articulated my exact bathroom thoughts from about 30min ago. Is the valuation justified right now? Not really, but like you said people are valuing it in a NVIDIA-esque. Who knows what will happen in the short term. I'll just be holding for a while.

Enrique's profile picture
Enrique1 year ago

Great work, Jack, and spot on with your mental framework! You're a business owner, not a stock owner. Love the maps analogy!

Jack Prescott's profile picture
Jack Prescott1 year ago

Thank you, Enrique! I know we’re aligned with viewing ourselves as business owners and not stock owners. It sure does provide a lot of peace of mind 🧘🏻‍♂️

Gabriel's profile picture
Gabriel1 year ago

Awesome read

Jack Prescott's profile picture
Jack Prescott1 year ago

Happy to help!

heraeus's profile picture
heraeus1 year ago

You get to the point very well, which is also my point of view. I am holding these shares for the long term.

Jack Prescott's profile picture
Jack Prescott1 year ago

🤝

Andy Renfrew's profile picture
Andy Renfrew1 year ago

I’d say it somewhat simpler than that Jack: Nvidia sells the shovels, but Palantir refines the ore to separate gold from pyrite…

Jack Prescott's profile picture
Jack Prescott1 year ago

Yes!!! I love your description 🔮

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I think of this Peter Thiel clip often. Thiel discusses how he sold $META at IPO; underestimating just how easy it would be for the company to scale from a $100B market cap to $1T. While this conversation is specifically about big tech, I believe it can apply to any company with strong network effects, various flywheels, etc. That’s not to say every great company will hit $1T, but I do believe it’s likely we underestimate just how much a truly great company can accomplish over the long run. Valuation matters over the long run, so I’m not saying just because a company hits $100B it will magically become easier to scale… but relatively speaking, assuming said market cap is an accurate reflection of the success a company is having, I think Thiel’s take makes a lot of sense. Flywheels are very powerful.. In my view, Palantir is building a flywheel as an operating system, where the more users they adopt, the more improved the platform will become and the more attractive it will be for devs, which in turn attracts more users and so on. With AbCellera, I believe the more data they collect, the better their platform becomes and the more partners they will attract, which results in even more microfluidic experiments, resulting in more data/improved accuracy, attracting more partnered molecules, and so on. Everyone is focused on obtaining as many shares as possible, and I get that… I want to own as many shares as possible for the companies I believe in as well. But I also believe folks probably have way more shares than they realize. The key is being able to hold for the LONG term… decades. Amara’s Law: “We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.” I believe 500 shares of $PLTR and 1,000 of $ABCL can be life changing over the long run if the thesis plays out and you’re patient (emphasis on thesis playing out, which is never guaranteed)… Life changing meaning accumulating a disproportionate amount of wealth relative to the average person. Maybe it won’t get you a yacht and a mansion, but could at least make you not have to worry about money ever again with a modest lifestyle… something most people dream of. And this isn’t specific to just these companies; I use them as an example because they’re what I know. And to those who have thousands of shares… enjoy the show.
1:58

I think of this Peter Thiel clip often. Thiel discusses how he sold $META at IPO; underestimating just how easy it would be for the company to scale from a $100B market cap to $1T. While this conversation is specifically about big tech, I believe it can apply to any company with strong network effects, various flywheels, etc. That’s not to say every great company will hit $1T, but I do believe it’s likely we underestimate just how much a truly great company can accomplish over the long run. Valuation matters over the long run, so I’m not saying just because a company hits $100B it will magically become easier to scale… but relatively speaking, assuming said market cap is an accurate reflection of the success a company is having, I think Thiel’s take makes a lot of sense. Flywheels are very powerful.. In my view, Palantir is building a flywheel as an operating system, where the more users they adopt, the more improved the platform will become and the more attractive it will be for devs, which in turn attracts more users and so on. With AbCellera, I believe the more data they collect, the better their platform becomes and the more partners they will attract, which results in even more microfluidic experiments, resulting in more data/improved accuracy, attracting more partnered molecules, and so on. Everyone is focused on obtaining as many shares as possible, and I get that… I want to own as many shares as possible for the companies I believe in as well. But I also believe folks probably have way more shares than they realize. The key is being able to hold for the LONG term… decades. Amara’s Law: “We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.” I believe 500 shares of $PLTR and 1,000 of $ABCL can be life changing over the long run if the thesis plays out and you’re patient (emphasis on thesis playing out, which is never guaranteed)… Life changing meaning accumulating a disproportionate amount of wealth relative to the average person. Maybe it won’t get you a yacht and a mansion, but could at least make you not have to worry about money ever again with a modest lifestyle… something most people dream of. And this isn’t specific to just these companies; I use them as an example because they’re what I know. And to those who have thousands of shares… enjoy the show.

Jack Prescott

153,243 views • 1 year ago

This will change how you see the stock market. Serial investor JL Collins explains stock market investment using the beer analogy: "When most people look at investment news, it's all this churning and trading; what stocks are hot right now, what stocks are falling. That's not the simple path to wealth; that's the foam." "The value of a stock is a combination of two things: the beer and the foam." "The beer is the fundamental operating value of the company; the sales, expenses, and profits while the foam is what the market determines the stock is worth based on emotions and speculation."
1:29

This will change how you see the stock market. Serial investor JL Collins explains stock market investment using the beer analogy: "When most people look at investment news, it's all this churning and trading; what stocks are hot right now, what stocks are falling. That's not the simple path to wealth; that's the foam." "The value of a stock is a combination of two things: the beer and the foam." "The beer is the fundamental operating value of the company; the sales, expenses, and profits while the foam is what the market determines the stock is worth based on emotions and speculation."

Fibonacci 🥷

43,392 views • 4 months ago

After yesterday I am currently holding 341,671 shares at an avg cost of 1.209 of $ASST The goal is to acquire 1/2 million shares over the next 2-4 weeks. I have gotten a lot of hate over this position. It’s actually very strange. I could care less, but what it does tell me, is that I’m definitely on the right path. Obviously I could be way off but I believe this stock trades between 16-22 in 2026. This would yield somewhere between $5,466,736.00 to $7,516,762.00. Here’s another insane prediction, that I obviously don’t know if this will happen, but if I believe $BTC will be 1mm to 3mm in 10 years, then I believe $ASST will be between 83-221 a share. So in 10 years this one investment could be between $28,358,693 to $75,509,291.00. And that’s at current share amount. Not the 1/2 million. So, when you ask me what are you going to do if it drops .20? Do you see how silly that question is? This investment is not for everyone and my suggestion is simply this. If you’re not convicted on $BTC and it’s replacement of fiat, then don’t invest in any crypto treasuries. Thanks for your attention on this matter. Many blessings to all of you and especially all the haters. My thesis attached below 👇🏼 Matt Cole
1:04

After yesterday I am currently holding 341,671 shares at an avg cost of 1.209 of $ASST The goal is to acquire 1/2 million shares over the next 2-4 weeks. I have gotten a lot of hate over this position. It’s actually very strange. I could care less, but what it does tell me, is that I’m definitely on the right path. Obviously I could be way off but I believe this stock trades between 16-22 in 2026. This would yield somewhere between $5,466,736.00 to $7,516,762.00. Here’s another insane prediction, that I obviously don’t know if this will happen, but if I believe $BTC will be 1mm to 3mm in 10 years, then I believe $ASST will be between 83-221 a share. So in 10 years this one investment could be between $28,358,693 to $75,509,291.00. And that’s at current share amount. Not the 1/2 million. So, when you ask me what are you going to do if it drops .20? Do you see how silly that question is? This investment is not for everyone and my suggestion is simply this. If you’re not convicted on $BTC and it’s replacement of fiat, then don’t invest in any crypto treasuries. Thanks for your attention on this matter. Many blessings to all of you and especially all the haters. My thesis attached below 👇🏼 Matt Cole

Boening Capital

78,282 views • 7 months ago

"The fact that you go all in on stocks makes you a gambler, not an investor." I hear this a lot. I have since I started investing with $20,000 in 2019 and went all in $TSLA. I hear it more today now that I'm investing millions of dollars in 2026, because this year has admittedly been one of my worst. Yet, I'm still looking a lot better than the $40,000 I would have if I had bought the S&P 500 in 2019. What people don't understand about my investing strategy is that because I buy asymmetrical bets where valuations are low and the stocks are counted out and disliked, I haven't had to be right every investment to maintain an ~80% CAGR since 2019, (yes counting from the trough I'm currently in). When I'm wrong I live to fight another day even despite often investing 100% of my net liquidity into a single position. If I'm right about $BETR and we get substantial rate cuts in the next five years... I'm not gonna recover from $1.5 million back to $10 million. I'm gonna hit $50 million+ I know the market is starting to think that rate cuts are nothing but a dream and Better is not a threat to incumbents... but funny enough that's the exact moment that you should be buying into a stock if you disagree. What's great is I only have to be right on one of these two points in order to make a lot of money over the next five years. For those in $PATH with me I want to say that I don't believe I was wrong about PATH at all. I still believe in the company, and still have a 5% position and still think that it's going to 5-10x over the next 5 years. However as software has pulled back and I discovered the Better opportunity, I decided it was smart to move up the risk curve (smaller market cap, less revenue, not profitable yet) to something that has sold off even more, has even more upside potential and an even faster growth rate. When everything in the software sector is out of favor and sold off, Higher Beta stocks are likely to go up a lot more if we see a sector wide recovery. I truly don't believe Better deserves to sell off any more than it currently has ($85 to $29) even if we found out it's only going to be a 10% revenue growth company after this year, which would be a huge disappointment. The valuation is simply already that discounted. Of course all of this is shared for entertainment. I am not your investment advisor, though i am out-returning him.
1:16

"The fact that you go all in on stocks makes you a gambler, not an investor." I hear this a lot. I have since I started investing with $20,000 in 2019 and went all in $TSLA. I hear it more today now that I'm investing millions of dollars in 2026, because this year has admittedly been one of my worst. Yet, I'm still looking a lot better than the $40,000 I would have if I had bought the S&P 500 in 2019. What people don't understand about my investing strategy is that because I buy asymmetrical bets where valuations are low and the stocks are counted out and disliked, I haven't had to be right every investment to maintain an ~80% CAGR since 2019, (yes counting from the trough I'm currently in). When I'm wrong I live to fight another day even despite often investing 100% of my net liquidity into a single position. If I'm right about $BETR and we get substantial rate cuts in the next five years... I'm not gonna recover from $1.5 million back to $10 million. I'm gonna hit $50 million+ I know the market is starting to think that rate cuts are nothing but a dream and Better is not a threat to incumbents... but funny enough that's the exact moment that you should be buying into a stock if you disagree. What's great is I only have to be right on one of these two points in order to make a lot of money over the next five years. For those in $PATH with me I want to say that I don't believe I was wrong about PATH at all. I still believe in the company, and still have a 5% position and still think that it's going to 5-10x over the next 5 years. However as software has pulled back and I discovered the Better opportunity, I decided it was smart to move up the risk curve (smaller market cap, less revenue, not profitable yet) to something that has sold off even more, has even more upside potential and an even faster growth rate. When everything in the software sector is out of favor and sold off, Higher Beta stocks are likely to go up a lot more if we see a sector wide recovery. I truly don't believe Better deserves to sell off any more than it currently has ($85 to $29) even if we found out it's only going to be a 10% revenue growth company after this year, which would be a huge disappointment. The valuation is simply already that discounted. Of course all of this is shared for entertainment. I am not your investment advisor, though i am out-returning him.

Jake Browatzke 🚀

10,834 views • 3 months ago

BREAKING: Michael Burry just compared Nvidia to the company that lost 90% of its value in the dot-com crash and took 25 years to recover. "I stand by my analysis. I am not claiming Nvidia is Enron. It is clearly Cisco." Here's the most recent warning from the investor who called the 2008 crash: Michael Burry built his reputation on one trade. He saw the housing market collapse before anyone else and bet against it. "The Big Short" made him famous. Now he's looking at Nvidia. And he says it looks like Cisco in March 2000. That comparison is not a casual insult. Cisco was the most valuable company in the world at the peak of the dot-com bubble. Its valuation crossed $500 billion. Then the bubble burst. The stock fell roughly 90% from its 2000 peak. Its market cap collapsed to about $60 billion by 2002. And it took roughly 25 years for the stock to climb back to where it started. An entire generation of investors waited a quarter century just to break even. That is the company Burry is comparing Nvidia to. Now here is the number that triggered the warning. In Nvidia's fiscal 2026 results, the company disclosed its purchase obligations. These are the commitments Nvidia makes to its suppliers to lock in future manufacturing capacity. A year ago, that figure sat at $16.1 billion. This year it jumped to $95.2 billion. Total supply obligations now sit at roughly $117 billion. Nvidia is committing $117 billion to build capacity for demand that has not arrived yet. Burry's argument is simple. A company does not lock in $117 billion in supplier commitments unless it is betting the demand keeps climbing. If that demand slows even slightly, Nvidia is holding billions in obligations it cannot unwind. And that is exactly what happened to Cisco. Cisco overcommitted to supplier capacity expecting roughly 50% annual growth. Then tech spending slowed. The inventory piled up. The stock cratered. Burry is not calling Nvidia a fraud. He is not saying it is the next Enron. He is saying it could be the market's Cisco. The single stock that becomes the symbol of an AI spending unwind that drags everything down with it. And the dot-com comparison carries weight because of what happened to the broader market. When that bubble burst, the Nasdaq 100 fell 77%. The S&P 500 dropped 49%. It was not just one stock. It was the whole market. Now here is the other side of the argument. Nvidia's supporters say the Cisco comparison is too simple. Because Cisco was riding hype. Nvidia is riding actual revenue. Nvidia reported fiscal 2026 revenue of $215.9 billion, up 65% year over year. Data center revenue alone hit roughly $193.7 billion, up 68%. Record quarterly data center revenue of $62.3 billion in the fourth quarter, up 75%. These are not promises. These are realized sales, booked and collected. The bulls argue that pricing power and margins this strong do not exist inside a pure bubble. In their view, Burry is warning about a future slowdown that has not shown up in a single quarterly report. So the debate splits into two clean halves. The bears say the $117 billion in commitments makes Nvidia dangerously sensitive to any demand slowdown. The bulls say the revenue is real, the growth is accelerating, and the buildout is justified by the orders already on the books. Both sides are looking at the same company. Both sides are looking at the same numbers. They just disagree on what those numbers mean. And there is a second force pulling at this market that has nothing to do with Nvidia's earnings. A wave of mega-IPOs is reportedly coming. SpaceX. OpenAI. Anthropic. Some estimates suggest the market may need to absorb close to $200 billion in fresh equity supply. That creates a quieter question underneath the Burry debate. Even if AI demand stays strong, capital is finite. When the next wave of private giants goes public, money has to come from somewhere. And the easiest place to pull it from is the stock that already tripled. The real test is not whether Burry is right or wrong today. It is whether demand growth, margins, and contract utilization keep matching the $117 billion that Nvidia and its entire ecosystem are committing right now. If the demand keeps climbing, the commitments look like foresight. If it stalls, they look like Cisco. The man who saw the last crash before anyone else just put a name on the risk. A company that was once worth over $500 billion, then lost 90%, then made its investors wait 25 years to get back to even. The numbers say Nvidia is booking record revenue. The same numbers say Nvidia is committing $117 billion to a future nobody can see. One of those facts ages well. The other one is the entire question.
7:21

BREAKING: Michael Burry just compared Nvidia to the company that lost 90% of its value in the dot-com crash and took 25 years to recover. "I stand by my analysis. I am not claiming Nvidia is Enron. It is clearly Cisco." Here's the most recent warning from the investor who called the 2008 crash: Michael Burry built his reputation on one trade. He saw the housing market collapse before anyone else and bet against it. "The Big Short" made him famous. Now he's looking at Nvidia. And he says it looks like Cisco in March 2000. That comparison is not a casual insult. Cisco was the most valuable company in the world at the peak of the dot-com bubble. Its valuation crossed $500 billion. Then the bubble burst. The stock fell roughly 90% from its 2000 peak. Its market cap collapsed to about $60 billion by 2002. And it took roughly 25 years for the stock to climb back to where it started. An entire generation of investors waited a quarter century just to break even. That is the company Burry is comparing Nvidia to. Now here is the number that triggered the warning. In Nvidia's fiscal 2026 results, the company disclosed its purchase obligations. These are the commitments Nvidia makes to its suppliers to lock in future manufacturing capacity. A year ago, that figure sat at $16.1 billion. This year it jumped to $95.2 billion. Total supply obligations now sit at roughly $117 billion. Nvidia is committing $117 billion to build capacity for demand that has not arrived yet. Burry's argument is simple. A company does not lock in $117 billion in supplier commitments unless it is betting the demand keeps climbing. If that demand slows even slightly, Nvidia is holding billions in obligations it cannot unwind. And that is exactly what happened to Cisco. Cisco overcommitted to supplier capacity expecting roughly 50% annual growth. Then tech spending slowed. The inventory piled up. The stock cratered. Burry is not calling Nvidia a fraud. He is not saying it is the next Enron. He is saying it could be the market's Cisco. The single stock that becomes the symbol of an AI spending unwind that drags everything down with it. And the dot-com comparison carries weight because of what happened to the broader market. When that bubble burst, the Nasdaq 100 fell 77%. The S&P 500 dropped 49%. It was not just one stock. It was the whole market. Now here is the other side of the argument. Nvidia's supporters say the Cisco comparison is too simple. Because Cisco was riding hype. Nvidia is riding actual revenue. Nvidia reported fiscal 2026 revenue of $215.9 billion, up 65% year over year. Data center revenue alone hit roughly $193.7 billion, up 68%. Record quarterly data center revenue of $62.3 billion in the fourth quarter, up 75%. These are not promises. These are realized sales, booked and collected. The bulls argue that pricing power and margins this strong do not exist inside a pure bubble. In their view, Burry is warning about a future slowdown that has not shown up in a single quarterly report. So the debate splits into two clean halves. The bears say the $117 billion in commitments makes Nvidia dangerously sensitive to any demand slowdown. The bulls say the revenue is real, the growth is accelerating, and the buildout is justified by the orders already on the books. Both sides are looking at the same company. Both sides are looking at the same numbers. They just disagree on what those numbers mean. And there is a second force pulling at this market that has nothing to do with Nvidia's earnings. A wave of mega-IPOs is reportedly coming. SpaceX. OpenAI. Anthropic. Some estimates suggest the market may need to absorb close to $200 billion in fresh equity supply. That creates a quieter question underneath the Burry debate. Even if AI demand stays strong, capital is finite. When the next wave of private giants goes public, money has to come from somewhere. And the easiest place to pull it from is the stock that already tripled. The real test is not whether Burry is right or wrong today. It is whether demand growth, margins, and contract utilization keep matching the $117 billion that Nvidia and its entire ecosystem are committing right now. If the demand keeps climbing, the commitments look like foresight. If it stalls, they look like Cisco. The man who saw the last crash before anyone else just put a name on the risk. A company that was once worth over $500 billion, then lost 90%, then made its investors wait 25 years to get back to even. The numbers say Nvidia is booking record revenue. The same numbers say Nvidia is committing $117 billion to a future nobody can see. One of those facts ages well. The other one is the entire question.

Insider Trackers

285,273 views • 3 months ago