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Jensen Huang pushes back on common misconceptions about China's tech capabilities, arguing the West is dangerously underestimating its competitor. He challenges three narratives he's heard: "They could never build AI chips. China can't manufacture. If there's one thing they could do is manufacture. And they're years behind us? Come...

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Distilled recap of the back-and-forth with Jensen on export controls: Dwarkesh: Wouldn’t selling Nvidia chips to China enable them to train models like Claude Mythos with cyber offensive capabilities that would be threats to American companies and national security? Jensen: First of all, Mythos was trained on fairly mundane capacity and a fairly mundane amount of it by an extraordinary company. The amount of capacity and the type of compute it was trained on is abundantly available in China. Dwarkesh: With that, could they eventually train a model like Mythos? Yes. But the question is, because we have more FLOPs, American labs are able to get to this level of capabilities first. Furthermore, even if they trained a model like this, the ability to deploy it at scale matters. If you had a cyber hacker, it's much more dangerous if they have a million of them versus a thousand of them. Jensen: Your premise is just wrong. The fact of the matter is their AI development is going just fine. The best AI researchers in the world, because they are limited in compute, also come up with extremely smart algorithms. DeepSeek is not an inconsequential advance. The day that DeepSeek comes out on Huawei first, that is a horrible outcome for our nation. Dwarkesh: Currently, you can have a model like DeepSeek that can run on any accelerator if it's open source. Why would that stop being the case in the future? Jensen: Suppose it optimizes for Huawei. Suppose it optimizes for their architecture. It would put others at a disadvantage. As AI diffuses out into the rest of the world, their standards and their tech stack will become superior to ours because their models are open. Dwarkesh: Tesla sold extremely good electric vehicles to China for a long time. iPhones are sold in China. They didn't cause some lock-in. China will still make their version of EVs, and they're dominating, or smartphones, they're dominating. Jensen: We are not a car. The fact that I can buy this car brand one day and use another car brand another day is easy. Computing is not like that. There's a reason why x86 still exists. There's a reason why Arm is so sticky. These ecosystems are hard to replace. Dwarkesh: It's just hard to imagine that there's a long-term lock-in to the Chinese ecosystem, even if they have this slightly better open-source model for a while. American labs port across accelerators constantly. Anthropic's models are run on GPUs, they're run on Trainium, they're run on TPUs. There are so many things you can do, from distilling to a model that's well fit for your chips. Jensen: China is the largest contributor to open source software in the world. China's the largest contributor to open models in the world. Today it's built on the American tech stack, Nvidia’s. Fact. All five layers of the tech stack for AI are important. The United States ought to go win all five of them. in a few years time, I'm making you the prediction that when we want American technology to be diffused around the world—out to India, out to the Middle East, out to Africa, out to Southeast Asia—on that day, I will tell you exactly about today's conversation, about how your policy ... caused the United States to concede the second largest market in the world for no good reason at all.

Dwarkesh Patel

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Jensen Huang just made the most direct argument of his career about why banning Nvidia from China is not a national security strategy but rather a national security failure. Dwarkesh asks why Nvidia should be allowed to sell chips to China at all, if China would just use Huawei chips without them. Jensen's answer was that in the absence of a better choice, you take the only choice you have. As long as China has to settle for inferior chips, they are building their AI infrastructure on a foundation that is slower, harder to program, and years behind American technology. The moment the US decides to ban Nvidia from selling to China entirely, it removes that disadvantage. China is 40 percent of the global technology industry, Jensen said. Conceding that market, handing it entirely to Huawei is a disservice to American national security, American technology leadership, and American economic power. The data shows what has already happened since the export bans tightened. Nvidia's share of China's AI chip market collapsed from 95 percent to 55 percent in 2025 and at one point during the H20 ban, Jensen himself declared Nvidia had gone from 95 percent share to zero on advanced accelerators. The Trump administration's ban on H20 chips cost Nvidia an estimated 15 billion dollars in lost sales, plus a 4.5 billion dollar inventory write-down. Without the export controls, Nvidia was on track to generate roughly 23 billion dollars in H20 chip sales to China in 2025 alone. Meanwhile Huawei shipped 812,000 AI chips in 2025 and Beijing has now mandated that all state-funded data centers must switch to domestic chips. Jensen's deeper argument is about the global stack, not the quarterly revenue. When developers around the world build AI on CUDA, Nvidia's programming platform, they are building on American technology. When those AI models deploy into every country, the American stack goes with them. Cutting Nvidia out of China does not slow Chinese AI but rather accelerates the construction of a parallel Chinese tech stack that, once built at scale, competes with American technology everywhere else in the world.

Milk Road AI

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