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JUST IN: The intelligence unit that detonated Hezbollah’s pagers in 2024 just dropped thousands of leaflets over Beirut asking Lebanese civilians to disarm Hezbollah themselves. Israeli jets flew over Verdun, Hamra, Ain al-Mreisseh, and the southern suburbs on 13 March and released paper. Not bombs. Paper. Each leaflet carried...

52,060 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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BREAKING: Lebanon has ordered the Iranian ambassador to leave the country by 29th March. Persona non grata. The host nation of Iran’s most successful proxy just told the patron state to get out. This happened on the same day that Hezbollah fired its 55th rocket and drone attack since March 22nd. On the same day that the IDF struck hundreds of Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley, and Beirut’s southern suburbs. On the same day that the Lebanese Health Ministry reported 18 killed and 65 injured from Israeli strikes on Lebanese soil. Lebanon expelled the ambassador of the country whose proxy is fighting a war from Lebanon’s territory while Lebanon’s own citizens die in the crossfire. Process what that means. Lebanon has two governments. One sits in the Grand Serail and issues decrees. The other sits in Dahieh and launches missiles. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam has banned all Hezbollah military and security activities. He has demanded weapon surrender. He has expelled the Iranian ambassador. And Hezbollah has responded by firing another barrage into northern Israel this morning. The decrees do not reach Dahieh. The Lebanese Armed Forces remain non-engaged. The state issues orders that the parallel state ignores. The ambassador leaves. The rockets do not. Lebanon created Hezbollah’s host environment and Hezbollah consumed it. Iran’s IRGC dispatched advisors to the Bekaa Valley in 1982 during the Israeli invasion and the chaos of civil war. They trained Shiite militants. They funded mosques, hospitals, schools. They built a social infrastructure that the Lebanese state could not provide, then militarised it. Hezbollah’s 1985 manifesto pledged allegiance to Ayatollah Khomeini. Iran provides an estimated $700 million annually. Forty-four years later, the organisation that Iran built inside Lebanon is more powerful than the state that hosts it. The ambassador can be expelled. The $700 million pipeline cannot. The expulsion is not strength. It is the last card a government plays when it has no others. Lebanon’s economy loses $30 to $80 million per day from the strikes. Five hundred and seventeen thousand people are displaced. The banking system collapsed in 2020 and never recovered. The currency has lost 98 percent of its value since 2019. And now Israel is striking Lebanese territory daily because Hezbollah is using Lebanese territory to attack Israel in solidarity with an Iranian war that the Lebanese government did not start, does not support, and cannot stop. The country is being destroyed by a war between its tenant and its neighbour, and the landlord has no power over either. Hezbollah fights because Iran’s sealed packets and $700 million command it. Israel strikes because Hezbollah fires from Lebanese positions. Lebanon’s government expels an ambassador because expelling an ambassador is the one sovereign act it can still perform. The army cannot disarm Hezbollah. The police cannot enter Dahieh. The courts cannot prosecute a militia that provides social services to a third of the population. The only tool the state has left is a diplomatic note handed to a man whose organisation does not need his presence to continue operating. The Axis of Resistance was designed for exactly this: to fight from inside states that cannot control the fight. Lebanon is the template. Iraq, Yemen, and Syria are the copies. The patron state provides the funding. The proxy provides the violence. The host state absorbs the retaliation. And when the host state protests, the proxy ignores the protest and the patron state sends a new ambassador. The rockets will continue after March 29. The ambassador will leave. The $700 million will not.

Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡

74,745 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

The situation in northern Israel is getting surprisingly little attention in the West. Here’s some background and an explanation of just how dire it is. World War Three gets closer by the day, and I’m not exaggerating. UNSC resolution 1701 (2006) is that Hezbollah agree to stay north of the river Litani in Lebanon. This puts Israeli settlements out of anti-tank rocket range. However, Hezbollah have broken this and since 7th October have fired thousands of rockets into Israel, displacing some 60,000 Israelis from their homes. To be clear, Hezbollah is a direct Iranian proxy, who live like a virus inside the almost-dead body of the Lebanese state. Their fighters are far superior to Hamas, having gained serious experience in the Syrian civil war. They have no real ground manoeuvre or air power, but their tunnels in the chalk rock of southern Lebanon are better than Hamas’ and they have an estimated 150,000 rockets. There are UN Peacekeepers in Lebanon, but (shockingly for the UN, I know) they’re as much use as a bacon sandwich at a Bar Mitzvah. One very senior Israeli source described them to me as “an umbrella that folds when it rains”. So Israel has a real, very serious problem. They do not have the manpower to assault into Lebanon for any kind of sustained campaign, especially whilst Gaza is ongoing. So, in polite terms, they are kicking the shit out of it from the air (over which they have total superiority) and relying on missile defences. Thousands of targets have been struck in the last 9 months but Hezbollah retain very significant missile capability. This is why Israel are beholden to the USA to offer obscenely generous ceasefire terms to Hamas (that Hamas appear to be declining). They cannot afford to lose American military aid with this threat on their northern border. In the videos below, in the first vid you see the war zone northern Israel has become. The second one is the settlement of Katzrin in the Golan Heights. Surrounded on all sides by fires. In a statement to Qatari-funded Muslim Brotherhood mouthpiece Al Jazeera, yesterday Hezbollah said, “We simultaneously attacked 15 bases in the Golan and the Galilee using 150 rockets and 30 drones. This is the most extensive attack carried out by the organization since October 8, this attack came in response to the assassination in Joya and in order to deter Israel from carrying out further assassinations of this type.” On top of that, Iranian proxies in Iraq took responsibility last night for the joint operation they carried out together with the Houthis (Iranian proxies in Yemen), which launched these ballistic missiles and UAVs towards the Israeli cities of Ashdod and Haifa (third video). Iran is besieging Israel on all sides, and Israel is bending, not breaking. This situation is genuinely dire. It explains why Hamas will not sign a ceasefire deal, and why other non-Iran aligned Gulf states are meeting with IDF commanders. The entire region is teetering on the edge of a much more widespread conflict with Iran, and Israel is taking the brunt of it. If this situation deteriorates, our allies in the Gulf may call for aid. As a second front in the war against the Iran-Russia-China-Qatar axis of malign global actors, this could not be more serious or worrying. And all the while we see subversive Iranian proxy organisations organising protests about Gaza on Western streets. Hopefully the West is not defeated domestically before the war even starts in earnest.

Andrew Fox

1,310,115 görüntüleme • 2 yıl önce

Israel has backtracked and has not included Lebanon in the ceasefire. 🇮🇱🇱🇧 Following Israel’s strategic defeat in its quest to eliminate the current Iranian political regime, Tel Aviv will now focus on eliminating Hezbollah in Lebanon. Netanyahu announced that Lebanon is not included in the ceasefire despite the US, Iran and Pakistan (which has taken an important role in the negotiations for a ceasefire) announces. To this end, operations south of the Litani River are likely to intensify in what could be a long war if external pressure does not force the Zionist political regime to desist. This operation could leave Lebanon partially occupied and destroyed, as has happened in Gaza, under the pretext of fighting armed groups. Eliminating Hezbollah would represent Israel’s ultimate success in ‘neutralising’ all its neighbours, securing lasting peace in the Levant and, for Iran, a loss of influence behind Israeli lines (having Hezbollah is like having a land front against Israel). As for Lebanon, the country would have no chance of defending itself with a government and an army currently subservient to external dictates, and new dissident movements could emerge, leading to a new civil war. Hezbollah, after all, is more than a paramilitary group; it is a state within a state. In fact, the Israeli opposition is deeply disappointed with the ceasefire, branding it a humiliating defeat. Lebanon could be the consolation prize to appease the most radical sector of Zionism. To demonstrate Israel’s resolve, southern Lebanon was bombed this morning, resulting in further civilian casualties.

@Suriyak

29,778 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

This morning, Israel withdrew from its first Lebanese village since the invasion in March, and the Lebanese Armed Forces have moved in to fill the void. The question is: Does this signal the beginning of a forced Israeli retreat, or the start of Lebanon’s long road to recovery? The answer is complicated. Israel can continue destroying Hezbollah infrastructure indefinitely, but it will pay massive international costs for doing so, with no way, short of a full invasion, to extinguish the group entirely. The framework agreement gives Israel legitimacy and time to uproot Hezbollah, but what Lebanon gives, it can also take away. If Beirut loses momentum and descends into state collapse, the entire agreement evaporates, and Hezbollah recovers out of Israel’s reach. This is the project President Joseph Aoun carries to Washington, where he meets Trump for the first time. Trump had no direct communication with Aoun during his first year in office—no meetings, calls, or letters. His sole contact has been in the form of inconsistent messaging on Lebanon’s fate: declaring after the June 26 agreement that “Iran is out, Hezbollah is out, and the road to peace between Israel and Lebanon is in,” then pivoting to pressure Netanyahu for unconditional withdrawal in the spirit of the Iran MOU, telling him, “They don’t want you there. You should redeploy,” before abandoning both positions altogether in favor of his own scheme, declaring, “Syria will do the job.” Aoun has already proven his willingness to buck Iran and pursue eventual peace with Israel. That was enough to earn this meeting. But anyone with a functioning memory knows the track record is bleak. Lebanon’s LAF claimed to have cleared Hezbollah infrastructure south of the Litani in late 2025, yet Israel continues finding significant assets there a year since their declaration. More damning still, LAF commander Rodolphe Haykal has explicitly prioritized “civil peace” over confronting Hezbollah—a strange priority for a general with orders to the contrary. The Lebanese military has proven as effective at disarming Hezbollah as UN peacekeepers have been, which is to say, not at all. Lebanese leaders have repeatedly promised and failed to disarm the group over the past 35 years—from the Taif Accord through the 2024 ceasefire. The uncomfortable truth is that throughout Lebanon’s history, only foreign powers—the United States, France, Israel, and Syria—have successfully disarmed Lebanese militias. Before Aoun goes all in on Hezbollah disarmament, he needs ironclad U.S. commitments. That means Delta Force-style training units for elite LAF operations, drones and sensors for border security, organized international fundraising for reconstruction, and business initiatives to rebuild Lebanon’s shattered economy. He also needs assurance that Trump will not abandon him halfway through his push. Trump, for his part, will demand specifics: a detailed plan for Hezbollah disarmament, removal of military officers complicit with the group, suspension of anti-normalization laws blocking Israeli-Lebanese civilian contact, and a clear reaffirmation that peace with Israel is Aoun’s strategic objective. Most critically, Aoun must decisively kill Trump’s recurring fantasy of deploying Syrian troops into Lebanon—a move that would resurrect memories of Assad-era brutality and paradoxically strengthen Hezbollah’s popular support. The circumstances favor success. The U.S.-Iran MOU is in tatters, eliminating easy alternatives to the framework. This week’s Rome talks were productive. Pilot zones are advancing. Trump will likely warm to Aoun personally, provided he takes a note from Zelensky and wears a suit. But this is about far more than personal rapport; the future of Lebanon hangs in the balance.

Amit Segal

23,281 görüntüleme • 15 gün önce

Israel has confirmed its intention to occupy southern Lebanon. 🇮🇱🇱🇧 The Defence Minister confirmed the armed forces’ intention to occupy the entire region south of the Litani River until the area is safe for the population and free of Hezbollah’s presence. Over the last few days, the Israeli air force has bombed the main evacuation bridges used by the Lebanese population to flee northwards, whilst IDF ground forces continue to build up along the border. The towns are subject to intense bombing and systematic destruction by Israel, which coincides with recent statements and speeches by the Israeli Defence Minister, Israel Katz (who ordered the destruction of border villages in southern Lebanon ‘in line with the model applied in Gaza’) and the Finance Minister, Bezalel Smotrich, who has threatened that “the southern suburbs of Beirut (Dahiya) could soon resemble Khan Younis”. The main areas where Israeli forces are massing are located in the occupied Golan Heights and in Kiryat Shmona (which has come under heavy attack from Hezbollah in recent days), suggesting that these will be the main axes of the occupation: on the one hand, occupying new positions on the slopes of Mount Hermon, and on the other hand reaching the Litani River and advancing towards Wadi el-Hjeir, in order to ‘encircle’ the southern towns whilst advancing towards Tyre and along the secondary axes in the south. However, with Israel’s current capabilities, it could only create a buffer zone along the Lebanese border. The IDF Chief of Staff, Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir, warned at a security cabinet meeting on 25–26 March 2026 that the army “will collapse in on itself” if the manpower shortage is not resolved. He cited “10 red flags” (serious warnings), including the exhaustion of reservists who have already completed 6 or 7 rotations, the expansion of missions and the lack of new conscription laws. Furthermore, the military spokesperson, Brigadier General Effie Defrin, acknowledged that the IDF needs around 15,000 additional soldiers to fulfil current missions. Moreover, this does not take into account the additional reserve troops that will be required to sustain a long-term occupation on the ground, nor the cost this may entail, given the history of previous Israeli occupations of Lebanese territory.

@Suriyak

18,982 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

We are already at war. Not with rifles or tanks, but with replacement. This is conquest by other means, through the slow erasure of a people who no longer recognize they are being conquered. That is why I write—to remind my people that we are not living in peace, but in the midst of a war waged without banners. The invasion is not declared with armies but with flights and boats, birthrates and welfare rolls. It is demographic warfare, calculated, continuous, and increasingly irreversible. A people, and a civilization, does not need to be burned to the ground to fall. It only needs to be replaced. Throughout the Western world, we are witnessing not mere immigration but a deliberate population transformation, one that has been rationalized by moral cowardice and enforced by political elites who have long since abandoned the idea that their nations belong to their people. What you mock as conquest is already underway, and unlike the conquests of old, it comes with the full consent of those in power. But I do not write in surrender. I write as a warning, as an act of resistance. My writing is meant to exhort and to enliven, to reawaken what has been buried beneath shame and silence. It is a summons to remember, to reclaim, and to rebuild. We are in an existential struggle, not only for our land, but for our survival, and thus for the future itself. Those who sneer at the loss will one day find there is nothing left to sneer at. A people who forget that they exist will be replaced by those who do not. You may call this natural. So be it. Then let nature return, red in tooth and claw, and let the sons of Europe remember who they are.

Chad Crowley

37,093 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce