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Kevin Warsh thought the Fed could communicate better by saying less. Instead, less clarity created more uncertainty.⁣ ⁣ Markets don't just listen to the Fed's actions. They listen to what the Fed says it believes. When that message gets unclear, uncertainty fills the gap.⁣ ⁣

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Justin Wolfers

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22,355 просмотров • 1 месяц назад •via X (Twitter)

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BREAKING: The new Fed Chair just signaled a major shift. Kevin Warsh says QE is fueling inflation. The Fed's massive balance sheet is part of the problem. "The Fed should exit markets outside of crises." This is not Powell talking. This is a completely different philosophy. Powell printed. Warsh wants to stop. Powell expanded the balance sheet. Warsh wants to shrink it. $6,700,000,000,000 in Fed assets. Warsh just told you that number needs to come down. - Less liquidity. - Higher rates for longer. - Risk assets reprice. The market has been betting on easy money. The new Fed Chair just bet against it. Everything changes on today.
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BREAKING: The new Fed Chair just signaled a major shift. Kevin Warsh says QE is fueling inflation. The Fed's massive balance sheet is part of the problem. "The Fed should exit markets outside of crises." This is not Powell talking. This is a completely different philosophy. Powell printed. Warsh wants to stop. Powell expanded the balance sheet. Warsh wants to shrink it. $6,700,000,000,000 in Fed assets. Warsh just told you that number needs to come down. - Less liquidity. - Higher rates for longer. - Risk assets reprice. The market has been betting on easy money. The new Fed Chair just bet against it. Everything changes on today.

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📉 WHAT'S CAUSING THE MARKET CRASH?! Gold & silver lost $10T in 3 days. Crypto wiped out $430B in 4 days. There’s been no obvious catalyst, so what changed? Markets are reacting to incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s message: "The Fed should shrink its balance sheet." He says today’s $7T Fed balance sheet is “trillions larger than it needs to be.” That matters because less Fed balance sheet = less liquidity for stocks and crypto. If this is Warsh’s Fed, markets could be in for more pain.🔥
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📉 WHAT'S CAUSING THE MARKET CRASH?! Gold & silver lost $10T in 3 days. Crypto wiped out $430B in 4 days. There’s been no obvious catalyst, so what changed? Markets are reacting to incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s message: "The Fed should shrink its balance sheet." He says today’s $7T Fed balance sheet is “trillions larger than it needs to be.” That matters because less Fed balance sheet = less liquidity for stocks and crypto. If this is Warsh’s Fed, markets could be in for more pain.🔥

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Kevin Warsh explains "the hall of mirrors problem" in the economy. 🪞 "If markets rely materially on the Fed's guidance and the Fed relies on market prices, we're more likely to be blinded to new developments, more likely to be caught unprepared, and more likely to commit errors in policymaking," Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said at Jackson Hole on Friday.
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Kevin Warsh explains "the hall of mirrors problem" in the economy. 🪞 "If markets rely materially on the Fed's guidance and the Fed relies on market prices, we're more likely to be blinded to new developments, more likely to be caught unprepared, and more likely to commit errors in policymaking," Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said at Jackson Hole on Friday.

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"They price of oil in the markets today, or even the price of a dozen eggs, that does not have first order consequences to what we are doing," says Fed Chair Kevin Warsh
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"They price of oil in the markets today, or even the price of a dozen eggs, that does not have first order consequences to what we are doing," says Fed Chair Kevin Warsh

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LATEST: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh says markets have already pushed rates higher, suggesting the Fed doesn't always need to raise its policy rate for monetary policy to affect the economy.
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LATEST: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh says markets have already pushed rates higher, suggesting the Fed doesn't always need to raise its policy rate for monetary policy to affect the economy.

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💥 BITCOIN'S BIGGEST MOVES START WHEN THE FED LOSES CONTROL OF EXPECTATIONS. 2019 Fed pivot → BTC went from $3k to $13k. 2020 emergency QE → BTC started the run to $69k. 2021 hawkish reversal → BTC entered a brutal bear market. Yesterday, Kevin Warsh officially ended forward guidance. The Fed just entered another uncertainty phase. Historically, this is where Bitcoin makes its biggest moves.
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💥 BITCOIN'S BIGGEST MOVES START WHEN THE FED LOSES CONTROL OF EXPECTATIONS. 2019 Fed pivot → BTC went from $3k to $13k. 2020 emergency QE → BTC started the run to $69k. 2021 hawkish reversal → BTC entered a brutal bear market. Yesterday, Kevin Warsh officially ended forward guidance. The Fed just entered another uncertainty phase. Historically, this is where Bitcoin makes its biggest moves.

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“Regime Change” at the Federal Reserve as Kevin Warsh hauls the Powell legacy to the dumpster. Sadly, it’s rearranging the silverware when Warsh could functionally End the Fed.
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“Regime Change” at the Federal Reserve as Kevin Warsh hauls the Powell legacy to the dumpster. Sadly, it’s rearranging the silverware when Warsh could functionally End the Fed.

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LATEST: Former Fed Vice Chair Roger Ferguson says rate hikes are eventually coming, but Kevin Warsh delivered a mixed message by pairing hawkish words with limited commitment to action. “The Fed cannot keep saying it is resolute and then not act. Eventually, its actions must match its words or risk losing credibility.”
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LATEST: Former Fed Vice Chair Roger Ferguson says rate hikes are eventually coming, but Kevin Warsh delivered a mixed message by pairing hawkish words with limited commitment to action. “The Fed cannot keep saying it is resolute and then not act. Eventually, its actions must match its words or risk losing credibility.”

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Conflicting signals from the Federal Reserve and Chair Kevin Warsh have fueled volatility in the Treasury market, pushing 30-year yields to a two-decade-high. Chris Rossbach from J. Stern says that markets may need to accept less Fed guidance and a greater focus on the long term
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Conflicting signals from the Federal Reserve and Chair Kevin Warsh have fueled volatility in the Treasury market, pushing 30-year yields to a two-decade-high. Chris Rossbach from J. Stern says that markets may need to accept less Fed guidance and a greater focus on the long term

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🔥WARSH: AI COULD PUSH PRICES LOWER Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh says the U.S. may be entering a productivity boom driven by AI that leads to a structural decline in prices.
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🔥WARSH: AI COULD PUSH PRICES LOWER Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh says the U.S. may be entering a productivity boom driven by AI that leads to a structural decline in prices.

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Kevin Warsh just ended his first ever FOMC meeting as Fed chair. His message to markets: "I can't give you any guidance on what we're going to do next." Here is what he said: 1. Inflation is still way above the Fed's 2% target and prices are too high for most people 2. "We will fix five years of misses on inflation", he is directly saying the previous Fed failed 3. The Fed will no longer tell you in advance what it plans to do with interest rates 4. He watches stock market prices more than anything else when making decisions 5. Interest rates are hurting the housing market but are not slowing down financial markets 6. All 19 members at the table agreed not to raise rates today 7. The 2% inflation target is not changing 8. He refused to say whether bond yields rising after today's decision concerns him 9. He refused to say whether he has spoken to Trump since becoming Fed chair Under Powell, the Fed always told markets what was coming next. Under Warsh, that is gone.
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Fed Chair Kevin Warsh says markets shouldn’t be looking to the central bank for their next trade: “We should not indulge a regime in which market participants are looking primarily to the Fed for their next trade.”
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"All the bluster about shrinking the Fed's balance sheet is questionable. Someone's going to have to eat treasury issuance. My spoiler alert: the Fed will ultimately be the final backstop." - John Arnold We discuss: ⚡ Kevin Warsh ⚡ Fed Balance Sheet ⚡ QE By Another Name
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"All the bluster about shrinking the Fed's balance sheet is questionable. Someone's going to have to eat treasury issuance. My spoiler alert: the Fed will ultimately be the final backstop." - John Arnold We discuss: ⚡ Kevin Warsh ⚡ Fed Balance Sheet ⚡ QE By Another Name

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🚨 FACT: NEW FED CHAIR = MARKET DUMP And now Kevin Warsh is stepping in. Three Fed transitions. Three major market breakdowns. Now 2026 is next. The crowd keeps saying: “Warsh is bullish on crypto.” That’s not the point. Markets don’t crash because a Fed Chair is bearish. Markets crash because nobody fully understands what comes next. - New signals. - New policy tone. - New uncertainty. And uncertainty is where liquidity disappears first. My take: The market is celebrating too early. Maybe the dump doesn’t start tomorrow. Maybe not even this week. But history is getting a little too familiar again. Mark this post. I’ve been in finance for more than 15 years. When I EXIT the markets completely, I’ll say it here publicly, like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.
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🚨 FACT: NEW FED CHAIR = MARKET DUMP And now Kevin Warsh is stepping in. Three Fed transitions. Three major market breakdowns. Now 2026 is next. The crowd keeps saying: “Warsh is bullish on crypto.” That’s not the point. Markets don’t crash because a Fed Chair is bearish. Markets crash because nobody fully understands what comes next. - New signals. - New policy tone. - New uncertainty. And uncertainty is where liquidity disappears first. My take: The market is celebrating too early. Maybe the dump doesn’t start tomorrow. Maybe not even this week. But history is getting a little too familiar again. Mark this post. I’ve been in finance for more than 15 years. When I EXIT the markets completely, I’ll say it here publicly, like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

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With today's announcement of Kevin Warsh as Trump's pick for Fed chair, tylercowen says, "it's a very difficult pick to judge." "Usually you think, 'What does this Fed chair believe?' I think what Kevin Warsh believes is that he should be chair of the Fed. He's very good at politics." "First he's for tight money, now with Trump as president, he's for easy money. The real question is: what's the psychological and power dynamic between Warsh and Trump?" "The fact that he's connected to the very wealthy Lauder family fortune, to me, says he at least has the freedom to tell Trump to take a hike."
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With today's announcement of Kevin Warsh as Trump's pick for Fed chair, tylercowen says, "it's a very difficult pick to judge." "Usually you think, 'What does this Fed chair believe?' I think what Kevin Warsh believes is that he should be chair of the Fed. He's very good at politics." "First he's for tight money, now with Trump as president, he's for easy money. The real question is: what's the psychological and power dynamic between Warsh and Trump?" "The fact that he's connected to the very wealthy Lauder family fortune, to me, says he at least has the freedom to tell Trump to take a hike."

TBPN

47,002 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

CNBC: What is the bigger risk for the Fed -- higher inflation or higher unemployment? HASSETT: The bottom line is the Fed should be able to lower rates and I expect that's what's going to happen when my friend Kevin Warsh gets in there
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CNBC: What is the bigger risk for the Fed -- higher inflation or higher unemployment? HASSETT: The bottom line is the Fed should be able to lower rates and I expect that's what's going to happen when my friend Kevin Warsh gets in there

Aaron Rupar

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🇺🇸TRUMP: I MADE A “BIG MISTAKE” ON THE FED Trump says he should have picked Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair in 2017 instead of Jerome Powell. "It was a mistake. A really big mistake." Now, Trump is promising a “high-quality” Fed Chair who’ll “do something spectacular.” "If Kevin Warsh does the job, we can grow at 15%. I think more than that."
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🇺🇸TRUMP: I MADE A “BIG MISTAKE” ON THE FED Trump says he should have picked Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair in 2017 instead of Jerome Powell. "It was a mistake. A really big mistake." Now, Trump is promising a “high-quality” Fed Chair who’ll “do something spectacular.” "If Kevin Warsh does the job, we can grow at 15%. I think more than that."

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🇺🇸 JUST IN: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declined to provide forward guidance on future rate decisions, noting that the Fed will meet again in six weeks.
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🇺🇸 JUST IN: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declined to provide forward guidance on future rate decisions, noting that the Fed will meet again in six weeks.

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"PM Carney never actually promised a CUSMA deal by July 1. What he did promise, months ago, was to reduce tariff uncertainty. Instead, as July 1 arrives, trade uncertainty is set to increase—not decrease. And Canada is far less equipped than the U.S. to absorb prolonged trade uncertainty. That should concern everyone."
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"PM Carney never actually promised a CUSMA deal by July 1. What he did promise, months ago, was to reduce tariff uncertainty. Instead, as July 1 arrives, trade uncertainty is set to increase—not decrease. And Canada is far less equipped than the U.S. to absorb prolonged trade uncertainty. That should concern everyone."

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