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🇮🇷🇺🇸 Malcolm Nance just did the math on Trump's "biggest bombing campaign since WWII" line, and it doesn't hold up. His point: no B-52s staged, no mass tanker buildup, tanker fleets already dispersed instead of massing for a real strike. He says he knew by Friday night this wasn't...

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Mario Nawfal

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump has dropped his demand for total uranium surrender, and that tells you everything about how badly he needs a win. Fmr U.S. Navy Intel Officer Malcolm Nance says the Gulf states are driving this deal, not Washington. "Trump desperately needs this single piece of paper calling an end to the war, opening of the Strait of Hormuz, an end to the blockade. And he can walk away and call this a victory, and the rest will be lost to negotiations." The details get buried. The headline is all he wants. Malcolm Nance
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump has dropped his demand for total uranium surrender, and that tells you everything about how badly he needs a win. Fmr U.S. Navy Intel Officer Malcolm Nance says the Gulf states are driving this deal, not Washington. "Trump desperately needs this single piece of paper calling an end to the war, opening of the Strait of Hormuz, an end to the blockade. And he can walk away and call this a victory, and the rest will be lost to negotiations." The details get buried. The headline is all he wants. Malcolm Nance

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🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The Gulf states are being told their security now depends on walking away from America... Fmr U.S. Navy intel officer Malcolm Nance lays out just how thoroughly Iran rewrote the regional order. The Gulf states are absorbing a brutal new message, that their security may hinge on putting distance between themselves and Washington, and Nance says it's actually landing: "The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until Donald Trump pays up. We're paying up." The bigger picture is what stings. By surviving this war and forcing America to pay up, Iran walked away having reshaped the entire balance of power in the region. Malcolm Nance
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs was asked for his opinion, and apparently said "We are out of options." Fmr. U.S. Navy Intel Officer Malcolm Nance says a ground operation would be "way too much" at this point, and all other options have been exhausted. "Clearly, this crisis is going to go past the Midterms... it's in Iran's interest to get Trump as damaged as possible." And damaged he is, a president who ran on "no new wars" just like Woodrow Wilson did 108 years before. "U.S. military forces are never setting foot back in the Persian Gulf... this is the end of freedom of navigation." Malcolm Nance
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs was asked for his opinion, and apparently said "We are out of options." Fmr. U.S. Navy Intel Officer Malcolm Nance says a ground operation would be "way too much" at this point, and all other options have been exhausted. "Clearly, this crisis is going to go past the Midterms... it's in Iran's interest to get Trump as damaged as possible." And damaged he is, a president who ran on "no new wars" just like Woodrow Wilson did 108 years before. "U.S. military forces are never setting foot back in the Persian Gulf... this is the end of freedom of navigation." Malcolm Nance

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🇺🇸🇮🇷🇨🇳 The Iran war may end with China looking stronger than everyone involved. Fmr U.S. Navy Intel Officer Malcolm Nance says Trump went to Beijing for an off ramp and handed China a historic win in the process. "Not only could he not destroy Iran, now, he had to ask the Chinese for help to just get him out of this jam." The only thing standing between a deal and a disaster is Israel. Malcolm Nance
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 COINCIDENCE TAKES A LOT OF PLANNING Former U.S. Navy Intel Officer Malcolm Nance says Iran shooting down multiple U.S. aircraft in one day was no accident. “I think the Iranians had a deliberate strategy not to waste their missiles unless and until the United States was going to start bringing in aircraft at low altitude that they could actually get good licks in on. The Iranians probably said hey, today’s that day.” Malcolm Nance
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🇺🇸🇻🇪LARA TRUMP: "MADURO KNEW HIS TIME WAS COMING" Lara Trump is calling it the real war on drugs, and says the U.S. strike that captured Maduro was the moment it all came to a head. She claims Maduro knew he was being tracked and that his removal is a major victory not just for Venezuela, but for the U.S. Lara linked Maduro directly to the fentanyl crisis in America and said Venezuelans are crying with joy. "He probably knew he was being tracked by the United States. Trump did not hesitate… we’re also going in on land in Venezuela. It has been a plague on our country that hopefully will come to an end. This president said, this is the real war on drugs. We are crying tears of joy for the fact that this illegitimate dictator is no longer in power. He knew his time was limited and that came to a conclusion overnight." Source: Fox News, The Patriot Oasis™, Lara Trump
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🇺🇸 Something that has held since Hiroshima is now reportedly on the table in White House strategy meetings. Fmr U.S. Navy Intel Officer Malcolm Nance is not joking about this one. "The posture of the United States has always been since Hiroshima and Nagasaki that the United States will not employ a nuclear weapon as a first strike unless the United States itself was attacked with a nuclear weapon." If that line moves, nothing else matters. Malcolm Nance
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🇺🇸 Something that has held since Hiroshima is now reportedly on the table in White House strategy meetings. Fmr U.S. Navy Intel Officer Malcolm Nance is not joking about this one. "The posture of the United States has always been since Hiroshima and Nagasaki that the United States will not employ a nuclear weapon as a first strike unless the United States itself was attacked with a nuclear weapon." If that line moves, nothing else matters. Malcolm Nance

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump spent years trashing the JCPOA. Now the deal he is celebrating may be weaker than the one he tore up. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar says the JCPOA was an actual plan of action, with requirements, constraints, consequences, and a clear end state. The new MOU, he says, is just an idea. “The principles of this MOU are significantly worse for the U.S. interests than the JCPOA. Without question.” That is the irony: after war, strikes, blockade, and chaos, Washington may have ended up with less than it already had.
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump spent years trashing the JCPOA. Now the deal he is celebrating may be weaker than the one he tore up. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar says the JCPOA was an actual plan of action, with requirements, constraints, consequences, and a clear end state. The new MOU, he says, is just an idea. “The principles of this MOU are significantly worse for the U.S. interests than the JCPOA. Without question.” That is the irony: after war, strikes, blockade, and chaos, Washington may have ended up with less than it already had.

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Malcolm Nance kept coming back to one word: DECOUPLED. And once he explained it, the whole picture clicked into place. His read is that Trump's U-turn was never about morality or turning on Israel. It was pure economic desperation. Trump admitted it himself at the G7, that the US was four weeks from an oil-driven economic collapse. Malcolm, an intelligence veteran, called that Trump's black hole moment, the confession he'd avoided for three weeks. But here's the dangerous part. While Trump scrambled to sign his deal, Netanyahu formally decoupled Israel's military strategy from the United States. Trump can threaten his career, dangle the Epstein files, drop him in the polls, 46 points in Israel in three weeks, and it doesn't matter. On Lebanon, Trump no longer controls him. "All of Lebanon must burn" and the leveling of every border village is what decoupling looks like in practice The chilling implication Malcolm raised? A decoupled Israel could try to assassinate Mojtaba Khamenei at his own father's funeral, without waiting for a US green light. Malcolm Nance
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Malcolm Nance kept coming back to one word: DECOUPLED. And once he explained it, the whole picture clicked into place. His read is that Trump's U-turn was never about morality or turning on Israel. It was pure economic desperation. Trump admitted it himself at the G7, that the US was four weeks from an oil-driven economic collapse. Malcolm, an intelligence veteran, called that Trump's black hole moment, the confession he'd avoided for three weeks. But here's the dangerous part. While Trump scrambled to sign his deal, Netanyahu formally decoupled Israel's military strategy from the United States. Trump can threaten his career, dangle the Epstein files, drop him in the polls, 46 points in Israel in three weeks, and it doesn't matter. On Lebanon, Trump no longer controls him. "All of Lebanon must burn" and the leveling of every border village is what decoupling looks like in practice The chilling implication Malcolm raised? A decoupled Israel could try to assassinate Mojtaba Khamenei at his own father's funeral, without waiting for a US green light. Malcolm Nance

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🚨 🇮🇱🇮🇷 ISRAEL CAN'T BE DISUADED FROM WAR Senior intelligence analyst Malcolm Nance says the ceasefire will have no effect on what Israel does next. Lebanon will be attacked whatever anyone says about it. Malcolm suggested that the goal of destabilization in the Middle East will be one Israel sticks to and Trump's admiration for autocrats will keep him from interfering. "I think Netanyahu is just going to flip us all the bird and do whatever he wants. I think the best thing he could have is to destabilize Iran." Malcolm Nance
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🚨 🇮🇱🇮🇷 ISRAEL CAN'T BE DISUADED FROM WAR Senior intelligence analyst Malcolm Nance says the ceasefire will have no effect on what Israel does next. Lebanon will be attacked whatever anyone says about it. Malcolm suggested that the goal of destabilization in the Middle East will be one Israel sticks to and Trump's admiration for autocrats will keep him from interfering. "I think Netanyahu is just going to flip us all the bird and do whatever he wants. I think the best thing he could have is to destabilize Iran." Malcolm Nance

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Strait of Hormuz is on fire and no one in Washington seems to have a plan. Fmr. U.S. Navy intelligence officer Malcolm Nance breaks down why hitting Qeshm Island and Bandar Abbas right now makes no strategic sense. "I just don't understand the logic of poking that bear at this point when the White House is expecting an agreement, because every time they do this, Iran rejected." Tehran has 32,000 fast attack boats left. Sinking a few doesn't end a war. Malcolm Nance
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Strait of Hormuz is on fire and no one in Washington seems to have a plan. Fmr. U.S. Navy intelligence officer Malcolm Nance breaks down why hitting Qeshm Island and Bandar Abbas right now makes no strategic sense. "I just don't understand the logic of poking that bear at this point when the White House is expecting an agreement, because every time they do this, Iran rejected." Tehran has 32,000 fast attack boats left. Sinking a few doesn't end a war. Malcolm Nance

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Washington is about to sanction a banking system with no wires, no computers, and no switch to flip Malcolm Nance spent years moving money across the Middle East, and he says the entire economic war rests on a false assumption: that Iranians buy their goats with PayPal. Meet hawala. You hand cash to a trusted man, he sends word, and the same sum is paid out in Tehran, Dushanbe, or Tashkent. No wire. No ledger. Older than every bank in Manhattan. "it never enters the Western system of banking" He learned it the hard way in Iraq, when a million dollars in cash arrived at his NGO office in shopping bags, delivered by a stranger in a taxi, after his organization had handed the money to someone a country away. In Najaf he watched money counters from families centuries into the trade count each stack twice by hand before insulting it with a machine. Meanwhile Treasury explained why the hammer hasn't dropped: he doesn't want to blow up the global financial system. Malcolm calls that the whole confession. A siege that spares dates, flour and kebab meat isn't a siege. Malcolm Nance
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Washington is about to sanction a banking system with no wires, no computers, and no switch to flip Malcolm Nance spent years moving money across the Middle East, and he says the entire economic war rests on a false assumption: that Iranians buy their goats with PayPal. Meet hawala. You hand cash to a trusted man, he sends word, and the same sum is paid out in Tehran, Dushanbe, or Tashkent. No wire. No ledger. Older than every bank in Manhattan. "it never enters the Western system of banking" He learned it the hard way in Iraq, when a million dollars in cash arrived at his NGO office in shopping bags, delivered by a stranger in a taxi, after his organization had handed the money to someone a country away. In Najaf he watched money counters from families centuries into the trade count each stack twice by hand before insulting it with a machine. Meanwhile Treasury explained why the hammer hasn't dropped: he doesn't want to blow up the global financial system. Malcolm calls that the whole confession. A siege that spares dates, flour and kebab meat isn't a siege. Malcolm Nance

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🇮🇱🇮🇷 Israel's leadership is looking FORWARD to this war restarting. Fmr. U.S. Navy intel officer Malcolm Nance points to Katz declaring the Shia axis nearly finished and already naming the next enemy: a Muslim Brotherhood axis of Qatar and Turkey. "These right wing Israelis that are running the government need an existential threat to keep the country living in fear at all times." Trump wants an off-ramp. Malcolm's worry is Netanyahu selling him one last 20% of targets, the kind of list that never ends: "We could be at this a year from now." Malcolm Nance
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🇮🇱🇮🇷 Israel's leadership is looking FORWARD to this war restarting. Fmr. U.S. Navy intel officer Malcolm Nance points to Katz declaring the Shia axis nearly finished and already naming the next enemy: a Muslim Brotherhood axis of Qatar and Turkey. "These right wing Israelis that are running the government need an existential threat to keep the country living in fear at all times." Trump wants an off-ramp. Malcolm's worry is Netanyahu selling him one last 20% of targets, the kind of list that never ends: "We could be at this a year from now." Malcolm Nance

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Excellent interview with Alan Eyre, former U.S diplomat and an expert on Iran. He says: ▫️ Trump cancelled Witkoff/Kushner's trip because he probably heard that Iran wasn't capitulating as he had expected. ▫️U.S. doesn't hold all the cards as Trump claims. Iran holds the Strait of Hormuz. ▫️Both sides are feeling the pain but this a war of survival for Iran but a war of choice for the United States. ▫️No one is winning this war. Not everything is solved with Diplomacy but nothing can be solved without it. ▫️ Regardless of how this war ends the region will not be the same. Whatever deal Trump gets it won't be better than the one he could have gotten before Feb 27th.
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Excellent interview with Alan Eyre, former U.S diplomat and an expert on Iran. He says: ▫️ Trump cancelled Witkoff/Kushner's trip because he probably heard that Iran wasn't capitulating as he had expected. ▫️U.S. doesn't hold all the cards as Trump claims. Iran holds the Strait of Hormuz. ▫️Both sides are feeling the pain but this a war of survival for Iran but a war of choice for the United States. ▫️No one is winning this war. Not everything is solved with Diplomacy but nothing can be solved without it. ▫️ Regardless of how this war ends the region will not be the same. Whatever deal Trump gets it won't be better than the one he could have gotten before Feb 27th.

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Tehran fired 24 missiles into Israel yesterday and watched the panic ripple through Washington in real time. Malcolm Nance, former U.S. Navy intelligence officer, says Iran has figured out the most valuable weapon in this entire war is the calendar. Trump needs a deal before the midterm math collapses on him, and every day without one belongs to Tehran. The missiles serve as receipts, regular reminders of who decides when this ends: "The more that they push it back, the more desperate Trump gets." Iran is running the clock with total discipline, and Trump handed them the stopwatch the day he showed them how badly he needs out. Malcolm Nance
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Tehran fired 24 missiles into Israel yesterday and watched the panic ripple through Washington in real time. Malcolm Nance, former U.S. Navy intelligence officer, says Iran has figured out the most valuable weapon in this entire war is the calendar. Trump needs a deal before the midterm math collapses on him, and every day without one belongs to Tehran. The missiles serve as receipts, regular reminders of who decides when this ends: "The more that they push it back, the more desperate Trump gets." Iran is running the clock with total discipline, and Trump handed them the stopwatch the day he showed them how badly he needs out. Malcolm Nance

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🇺🇸 🇮🇱 Netanyahu just cut Israel loose from the US, and Washington has no way to pull it back. Malcolm Nance says the US-Israeli military relationship, which used to run like one deeply integrated theater command, has fundamentally broken. The turning point, in his view, came when Netanyahu publicly declared that an Israeli leader has to be willing to tell America "no." That decoupling got cemented, Nance argues, when Netanyahu brushed off US efforts to lock down the MOU and escalated operations in Lebanon anyway, diplomatic fallout be damned. The result is the part that should worry Washington most. Nance says the US is now left without a single real lever to rein Israel in. Malcolm Nance
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🇺🇸 🇮🇱 Netanyahu just cut Israel loose from the US, and Washington has no way to pull it back. Malcolm Nance says the US-Israeli military relationship, which used to run like one deeply integrated theater command, has fundamentally broken. The turning point, in his view, came when Netanyahu publicly declared that an Israeli leader has to be willing to tell America "no." That decoupling got cemented, Nance argues, when Netanyahu brushed off US efforts to lock down the MOU and escalated operations in Lebanon anyway, diplomatic fallout be damned. The result is the part that should worry Washington most. Nance says the US is now left without a single real lever to rein Israel in. Malcolm Nance

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🇮🇷 🇦🇪 Iran's currency is devaluing at half the rate it was before the war started... Intelligence expert Malcolm Nance cites analyst Brant Erickson on the numbers, and his conclusion runs against everything Washington is claiming: "They're doing better than they were doing before the war." So when Iranian officials warn publicly that hungry people and frozen finances mean the country cannot endure, Malcolm reads it as a deliberate disinformation campaign designed to let Washington believe the pressure is working. Meanwhile the UAE keeps trading gold with Iran straight out of the gold souk, which is why he says nobody is going to starve that nation. Malcolm Nance
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🇮🇷 🇦🇪 Iran's currency is devaluing at half the rate it was before the war started... Intelligence expert Malcolm Nance cites analyst Brant Erickson on the numbers, and his conclusion runs against everything Washington is claiming: "They're doing better than they were doing before the war." So when Iranian officials warn publicly that hungry people and frozen finances mean the country cannot endure, Malcolm reads it as a deliberate disinformation campaign designed to let Washington believe the pressure is working. Meanwhile the UAE keeps trading gold with Iran straight out of the gold souk, which is why he says nobody is going to starve that nation. Malcolm Nance

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The Qatar explosion dropped live as the interview started and former U.S. Intelligence Malcolm Nance was not fazed His read: natural gas fed fire, not a drone strike, probably a pipeline feeding it, and the Qataris immediately killed all cell coverage in the area But the timing, day one of negotiations, Israel being forced into a ceasefire, a power struggle happening in real time... He wasn't ruling anything out But remember, he says: you don't rob the armored truck delivering your $30 billion Israel's only real remaining option to blow up this deal, he said flatly, is assassinate Mojtaba Khamenei Iran took everything America had short of a nuclear weapon and came out with $24 billion delivered and $300 billion guaranteed Israel first, Israel alone, Israel now, his words, and he doesn't think that ends well for them Thank You Malcolm Nance for our conversation
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The Qatar explosion dropped live as the interview started and former U.S. Intelligence Malcolm Nance was not fazed His read: natural gas fed fire, not a drone strike, probably a pipeline feeding it, and the Qataris immediately killed all cell coverage in the area But the timing, day one of negotiations, Israel being forced into a ceasefire, a power struggle happening in real time... He wasn't ruling anything out But remember, he says: you don't rob the armored truck delivering your $30 billion Israel's only real remaining option to blow up this deal, he said flatly, is assassinate Mojtaba Khamenei Iran took everything America had short of a nuclear weapon and came out with $24 billion delivered and $300 billion guaranteed Israel first, Israel alone, Israel now, his words, and he doesn't think that ends well for them Thank You Malcolm Nance for our conversation

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Food prices are up 29% in the United States, and Johns Hopkins economist Steve Hanke says that's the price tag on two wars nobody budgeted for. Hanke, senior economist and one of the most followed economics accounts on X, laid out the mechanics bluntly: "It's a deadly cocktail. You've got Trump's tariff wars disrupting things, and then Trump's war with Iran messed things up enormously too, because it turns out farmers use something called diesel fuel, and truckers use something called diesel fuel, and the crack spread is at a record level." On why there's no quick fix from Washington, he didn't hedge: "Trump has no options. When I say no options, I mean there's no option Trump can take in which the benefits exceed the cost. Iran has totally and completely all the cards." What actually stopped further escalation, in his view, wasn't Congress, but Gulf states like Saudi Arabia telling Washington no, because Iran made clear that hitting their power and water infrastructure would be mutual destruction. Desalination plants are the whole ballgame for a region that can't feed itself otherwise. Hanke's sharpest line is about trust, not hardware: even if the interceptors get rebuilt, the credibility doesn't come back. Global polling already shows the U.S. image cratering while China's climbs. "Once you lose trust, you've got a problem. Even in the administrations that follow this one, the trust factor is just gone." A clear-eyed look at what this war is actually costing, far beyond the battlefield. Thanks for coming on, Steve Hanke
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231,582 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat