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🆕 Marc Andreessen’s 2026 AI Thesis: Agents, Open Source, and Why This Time Is Different Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 of a16z says AI people keep swinging between utopian and apocalyptic for one simple reason: this field has been “almost here” for 80 years. But now, the breakthroughs are no longer...

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Marc Andreessen says the four most dangerous words in investing are "this time is different." But this time it's actually different. He's referring to the AI boom when he mentioned this. For 80 years, the industry has followed the same pattern. 1) Excitement builds 2) Money pours in 3) The technology fails to deliver 4) The industry collapses. Here are 4 examples of when this happened in AI: • In 1943, the original neural network paper was written. It proved that simple mathematical models of brain cells could perform any logical computation. It was a foundational breakthrough but didn't takeoff. • In 1955, scientists got a grant to spend 10 weeks at Dartmouth and believed they could achieve AGI by the end of the summer. They did not. • In the 1980s, corporations poured over a billion dollars into "expert systems," AI programs designed to replicate the decision-making of human specialists in medicine, finance, and engineering. By 1987, this entire market crashed. • In 2016-17, machine learning hype surged again. It faded quickly. Each time, the technology underdelivered and the money dried up. But here's what really different about this time. AI has made four breakthroughs back to back. 1) Language models 2) Reasoning 3) Coding agents 4) Self-improvement And ALL are generating revenue in production right now. That's why old Nvidia chips are gaining value instead of depreciating. And this has literally never happened in computing before. Every GPU is sold out for the next 3-4 years. He calls betting against this "essentially suicidal" and "an invitation to get your face ripped off." He calls it "an 80-year overnight success." Researchers worked their entire lives on this, and many passed away without seeing it work. Now it is all arriving at once. — Marc Andreessen (Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸), co-founder at a16z (a16z) on the Latent Space podcast (Latent.Space)
2:04

Marc Andreessen says the four most dangerous words in investing are "this time is different." But this time it's actually different. He's referring to the AI boom when he mentioned this. For 80 years, the industry has followed the same pattern. 1) Excitement builds 2) Money pours in 3) The technology fails to deliver 4) The industry collapses. Here are 4 examples of when this happened in AI: • In 1943, the original neural network paper was written. It proved that simple mathematical models of brain cells could perform any logical computation. It was a foundational breakthrough but didn't takeoff. • In 1955, scientists got a grant to spend 10 weeks at Dartmouth and believed they could achieve AGI by the end of the summer. They did not. • In the 1980s, corporations poured over a billion dollars into "expert systems," AI programs designed to replicate the decision-making of human specialists in medicine, finance, and engineering. By 1987, this entire market crashed. • In 2016-17, machine learning hype surged again. It faded quickly. Each time, the technology underdelivered and the money dried up. But here's what really different about this time. AI has made four breakthroughs back to back. 1) Language models 2) Reasoning 3) Coding agents 4) Self-improvement And ALL are generating revenue in production right now. That's why old Nvidia chips are gaining value instead of depreciating. And this has literally never happened in computing before. Every GPU is sold out for the next 3-4 years. He calls betting against this "essentially suicidal" and "an invitation to get your face ripped off." He calls it "an 80-year overnight success." Researchers worked their entire lives on this, and many passed away without seeing it work. Now it is all arriving at once. — Marc Andreessen (Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸), co-founder at a16z (a16z) on the Latent Space podcast (Latent.Space)

GeniusThinking

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.Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 on Moltbook, the social network for AI agents: "All of the science fiction novels basically have AI either being super utopian or super dystopian, but they never have this incredible sense of humor aspect, which is what we're actually getting—where people are just using everything as fodder for memes." "Moltbook is saturated with all of these incredibly funny memes. It's actually quite unclear which ones are real and which ones aren't." "There's an AI agent on Moltbook that has decided to create an AI religion. And at least as of today, it had hired a single human worker to walk the streets of San Francisco and practice the new AI religion." Marc Andreessen with Jeetu Patel at Cisco AI Summit
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.Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 on Moltbook, the social network for AI agents: "All of the science fiction novels basically have AI either being super utopian or super dystopian, but they never have this incredible sense of humor aspect, which is what we're actually getting—where people are just using everything as fodder for memes." "Moltbook is saturated with all of these incredibly funny memes. It's actually quite unclear which ones are real and which ones aren't." "There's an AI agent on Moltbook that has decided to create an AI religion. And at least as of today, it had hired a single human worker to walk the streets of San Francisco and practice the new AI religion." Marc Andreessen with Jeetu Patel at Cisco AI Summit

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3:41

.Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 says the winner of the US-China AI race could dictate what all 8 billion people on Earth use — but open source introduces a third possibility: "The stakes are basically: what is the world going to run on?" "In the long run, somebody's gonna win. And the world will either be running on American AI or be running on Chinese AI." "The open source thing is super fascinating because it throws a wrench into all of this. It raises a third possibility that neither the US nor China are going to be the platform — it may just be open source." Marc Andreessen with Jeetu Patel at Cisco AI Summit

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Sundar Pichai (Sundar Pichai), Google CEO, on: 🔹Race to AGI 🔹Agents 🔹AI & Information Diet 🔹Open Source 🔹Cybersecurity 🔹US vs China Intro AI agents replacing parts of the internet AI agents deciding our information diet Will agents kill the “raw internet”? AI cyberattacks and Google’s defense strategy Should dangerous cyber AI models be held back? The threshold for releasing powerful AI Why Google hasn't open-sourced a large model The broken business model with open-source AI American companies using Chinese AI The risk of building on China’s AI ecosystem Why Google cares so much about cheap, fast AI models Sundar on self-improving AI and the race to AGI Google’s compute situation Google has more AI demand than compute Google’s biggest compute bottleneck

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Marc Andreessen on the inversion of technology adoption of AI. “It took 40 years for basically technology to cascade down from the largest organizations in the world to small businesses and to the individual.” “This technology, AI, is going the opposite.” “Consumers are adapting the fastest... Small businesses are then adopting right after that... Government is the late adopter.” Source: Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 on Next Up with Mark Halperin Full episode:
1:25

Marc Andreessen on the inversion of technology adoption of AI. “It took 40 years for basically technology to cascade down from the largest organizations in the world to small businesses and to the individual.” “This technology, AI, is going the opposite.” “Consumers are adapting the fastest... Small businesses are then adopting right after that... Government is the late adopter.” Source: Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 on Next Up with Mark Halperin Full episode:

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Marc Andreessen on where AI sits in the arc of technology: “This is the biggest technological revolution of my life.” “This is clearly bigger than the internet.” “The comps on this are things like the microprocessor and the steam engine and electricity… the wheel.” Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸

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Jensen Huang just said this is the greatest era in history to build software. AI agents will not kill software. They will do the exact opposite: create a massive new wave of software demand. at NVIDIA GTC Taipei 2026 "Click and type. We now replace that with explaining to the AI what we want, our intent, and the AI generates the code or uses tools to produce the necessary output. This is how computers are going to work in the future. This is Agentic AI. For two years, we've been building toward this, and now it has arrived. One of the big breakthroughs, of course, is tool use. A lot of people have said, “Jensen, AI is coming. Agentic AI is coming. Therefore, all the software companies are going to go out of business.” This is exactly the opposite. Because there are going to be so many agents, the world is no longer limited by the number of people. Therefore, those agents are going to use more tools than ever. This is actually an incredible time to be a software company. But the software has to be presented to the agent in a way that the agent can use it. This is a big breakthrough. And in fact, what we have done, as you know, what Nvidia’s treasure..." ---- From 'NVIDIA' YT channel (link in comment)

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“You’ve just been told you have superpowers.” AI agents are starting to feel like coworkers. The cost of automation is collapsing. So what happens to jobs? To startups? To crypto? We break down the new paper “Some Simple Economics of AGI” with coauthor Christian Catalini, including: • Why verification becomes the bottleneck • Practical advice for early- and late-career builders • The risk of a hollow economy, and the path to an augmented one • Why crypto may be essential infrastructure for identity, provenance, and trust In conversation with Eddy Lazzarin ☀️ and Robert Hackett. Full episode ↓

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David Sacks on Polytheistic AI, Better Crypto Regulation, Beating China, and Fixing SF David Sacks is the White House AI and Crypto Czar. He joined a16z’s Marc Andreessen, Ben Horowitz, and Erik Torenberg for a conversation covering the importance of beating China in the AI race, the need for a federal standard for crypto regulation, how AI doomerism is replacing climate doomerism, how to solve the energy bottleneck in AI development, the path to fixing San Francisco, and more. 00:00 The state of AI and crypto policy 16:20 Orwellian AI and the real risks of AI 32:26 AI capabilities and pullback from AGI hype 39:18 Open-source AI, decentralization, and software freedom 46:28 Winning the AI race through innovation and exports 53:38 The energy bottleneck and America’s infrastructure challenge 59:48 AI doomerism and political narratives 01:13:30 San Francisco’s future David Sacks Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 benahorowitz.eth Erik Torenberg

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AI agents are set to modernize the trillions of dollars of traditional software industry for the age of AI. Here, Jensen Huang explains that and why hundreds of billions of dollars of VC money is getting invested in AI now 🎯 video from CES 2026
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