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Mark Chen dropping some alpha while cooking up a tasty meal: "AGI is coming soon." "We're getting closer and closer to a world where the models can come up with more of the innovations on their own, kind of do self-sustained research." "Are there big bets before that point...

28,060 просмотров • 1 месяц назад •via X (Twitter)

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David Friedberg Explains Why AI Will Break Every Economic Model: Will Output Surpass Consumptive Capacity? I think fundamentally, if you're driving productivity with AI, you're driving leverage on human time and leverage on capital. The question is, how quickly can you drive that up? And that's a function of how much consumption there is, how much capacity there is for consumption. So if your earnings are the same, but things are getting more expensive, you're not happy. If your earnings go up by 10% and things stay the same price, you got 10% more than you had last year, you're gonna be happy. I just think all humans are driven by this need to consume more each year than they did last year. So I think for me, that's the lower limit on consumptive capacity in the world. The question that we're now facing, which we've never faced in human history before, is there an upper limit on consumptive capacity? Because AI creates such a profound shift in productivity and in leverage that normally you would say, “Hey, when we get a new tool or we get new leverage in a system, we build a new technology, we can make more with less.” Therefore, everyone gets access to more things for the same price or the cost of things that they consume come down by a certain price. But there may be a situation now where the ability to make stuff exceeds the capacity to consume stuff, and that is something that I don't think we’ve faced before. And I think that's where a lot of the models start to break. Just general economic models, just general productivity models and general social models. And this goes to the point about, like, what is everyone going to do? In the same way that I think we've argued that maybe SaaS was a transitory business phenomenon that existed between the foundation of the internet and the era of AI, it may be the case that knowledge work in general is also a transitory phenomenon that only existed between the foundation of the computer, or computing tools, and the existence of AI, generally speaking. And if all of that goes away very quickly, and all of those people can be redistributed and recast into doing other higher level, more creative things, their productivity goes up by 100x, is there really a consumer on the other end of all of that productivity? Is there really enough consumptive capacity? And I think that's the profound question that we all face.

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Ashton Kutcher on why the race to AGI has become a geopolitical war between the free world and China: He believes the pursuit of artificial general intelligence has moved well beyond the realm of science and product competition. In his view, it's now a contest between nations, one with stakes that could define global power for decades. "We are in a war that is very very active between the free world and China if we want to call China the not free world… to see who gets to AGI first." And according to ashton kutcher, the finish line is closer than most people think: "The latest brightest predictions from some of the brightest people I know is that we're about a thousand days away from having one of these models go hyperbolic." He explains what happens the moment a model crosses that threshold: "The moment that that model goes hyperbolic, it starts self-training. So, not only are we using inference for the output, we're in a constant training cycle for that model and it's just training itself, training itself, training itself." That self-training loop is what makes the geopolitical stakes so high: "The output of that is that that model will be able to do about 25,000 years of thinking in 1 second. That's the most powerful tool humanity has ever known." Ashton's framing reshapes the AGI conversation entirely. Forget the question of which lab ships first. The deeper issue is which country ends up controlling a technology so powerful that the rest of the world may never catch up.

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