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Markets are calling the bluff. Treasury yields keep ripping higher, and for the first time in a long time, Washington looks powerless to stop it. Ran Neuner

The Wolf Of All Streets

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🇺🇸 Every time yields spike, the Treasury reaches for another emergency fix. Macroeconomic analyst Luke Gromen says the buybacks and currency maneuvers are covering a debt problem rather than solving one, and everybody in the bond market can see the difference. High energy prices and foreign policy friction keep pushing long-term yields higher, which means each patch buys less time than the one before it, and Washington ends up back at the same wall a little sooner every round. Luke Gromen

🇺🇸 Every time yields spike, the Treasury reaches for another emergency fix. Macroeconomic analyst Luke Gromen says the buybacks and currency maneuvers are covering a debt problem rather than solving one, and everybody in the bond market can see the difference. High energy prices and foreign policy friction keep pushing long-term yields higher, which means each patch buys less time than the one before it, and Washington ends up back at the same wall a little sooner every round. Luke Gromen

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A sustained sell-off in the bond market sent long-term Treasury yields to their highest levels in nearly 20 years this week, rattling both Wall Street and Washington. Higher yields, essentially the interest rate the government pays to borrow money, also mean higher borrowing costs throughout the economy, from mortgages to car loans. Amna Nawaz (amna) discussed more with The Washington Post's David Lynch.

A sustained sell-off in the bond market sent long-term Treasury yields to their highest levels in nearly 20 years this week, rattling both Wall Street and Washington. Higher yields, essentially the interest rate the government pays to borrow money, also mean higher borrowing costs throughout the economy, from mortgages to car loans. Amna Nawaz (amna) discussed more with The Washington Post's David Lynch.

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Could long- and short-term US Treasury yields diverge further, and where are investors finding opportunities in the bond market? Mike Mitchell, head of US Treasury and Inflation Trading in Global Banking & Markets, discusses:

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GLOBAL BOND MARKETS ARE BREAKING IN REAL TIME Bond yields are spiking around the world simultaneously US 10-year Treasury: 4.6%, biggest weekly jump since 2025 Japan 30-year: broke 4% for the first time since it was introduced in 1999 Japan 10-year: 2.78%, highest since May 1997 UK gilts up 15 bps in a single day on political instability The cause in the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, meaning oil stays elevated and Inflation expectations refuse to come down The Trump-Xi summit ended without progress Bond traders are pricing in stagflation instead of pricing in rate cuts This matters beyond bonds Higher yields mean higher borrowing costs for governments The US has $39 trillion in debt and pays $1 trillion a year in interest Every basis point up costs the Treasury billions Polymarket now gives 66% odds that Kevin Warsh hikes rates in December Markets are still in disbelief The bigger risk is if Japanese institutional investors stop financing US Treasuries and start repatriating capital They hold $1.1 trillion in US debt When the same thing happened in August 2024, the yen carry trade unwound and global markets crashed in 72 hours Bond markets are the foundation of everything else And the foundation is moving

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This is excellent So right now a lot of institutional investors are selling treasuries and buying hyperscaler debt because it yields 2% more. This is pushing treasury yields higher $META debt now yields 7.5%. Other hyperscalers are in the 6.5% range. It won’t last tho 👇

This is excellent So right now a lot of institutional investors are selling treasuries and buying hyperscaler debt because it yields 2% more. This is pushing treasury yields higher $META debt now yields 7.5%. Other hyperscalers are in the 6.5% range. It won’t last tho 👇

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🇺🇸🇯🇵 Mohamed El-Erian: Washington is trying to impose outcomes on markets that fundamentals don't support The yen intervention isn't working. The attempt to push down long-term Treasury yields isn't working either. And Mohamed El-Erian thinks both are symptoms of the same problem: Washington increasingly believes government policy can dictate market outcomes. Markets are reminding it otherwise. Japan has already sold roughly $96 billion in foreign securities in a month while defending the yen, putting additional upward pressure on U.S. yields. Yet the yen has weakened again, creating what El-Erian agrees is essentially a vicious loop: defend the yen, sell Treasuries, push U.S. yields higher, make the carry trade more attractive, weaken the yen again. Washington is simultaneously trying its own financial engineering. With mortgage costs hurting voters ahead of the midterms, the administration wants lower long-term yields. But El-Erian says Treasury lacks the “bazooka” required to overpower a market this large. Without fixing the fundamentals, intervention becomes another Band-Aid. And those fundamentals aren't pretty. U.S. debt has crossed $40 trillion, doubled in 10 years, and interest payments are rising roughly 15% annually. Meanwhile, the AI boom is creating another enormous demand for capital, forcing government, companies and households to compete for money and pushing borrowing costs higher. El-Erian's broader warning is about “geo-economics.” Tariffs. Sanctions. Currency intervention. Treasury intervention. Economic tools increasingly look attractive because their costs aren't immediately visible. But the costs don't disappear. They accumulate. And eventually, El-Erian warns, markets will react. Mohamed A. El-Erian

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