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🇺🇸 Every time yields spike, the Treasury reaches for another emergency fix. Macroeconomic analyst Luke Gromen says the buybacks and currency maneuvers are covering a debt problem rather than solving one, and everybody in the bond market can see the difference. High energy prices and foreign policy friction keep... show more

Mario Nawfal

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47,092 просмотров • 10 дней назад •via X (Twitter)

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🇺🇸 Foreign central banks stopped buying US debt years ago and started buying gold instead. Macroeconomic analyst Luke Gromen says the buyers who replaced them are hedge funds and offshore money, which behave nothing like a central bank does. Patient long-term holders have given way to fast capital that can leave whenever the trade stops working, and funding a growing national debt that way builds volatility into the system rather than stability. Luke Gromen

🇺🇸 Foreign central banks stopped buying US debt years ago and started buying gold instead. Macroeconomic analyst Luke Gromen says the buyers who replaced them are hedge funds and offshore money, which behave nothing like a central bank does. Patient long-term holders have given way to fast capital that can leave whenever the trade stops working, and funding a growing national debt that way builds volatility into the system rather than stability. Luke Gromen

Mario Nawfal

48,187 просмотров • 10 дней назад

🇺🇸 The Pentagon says clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz could take six months, and that's only after the war ends. Luke Gromen says don't expect a quick fix, and the bond markets might not be able to handle what comes next. "Energy prices now that the Western bond markets can't sustain. They're going to have to print money to cap yields, which then it's going to be very inflationary." Luke Gromen

🇺🇸 The Pentagon says clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz could take six months, and that's only after the war ends. Luke Gromen says don't expect a quick fix, and the bond markets might not be able to handle what comes next. "Energy prices now that the Western bond markets can't sustain. They're going to have to print money to cap yields, which then it's going to be very inflationary." Luke Gromen

Mario Nawfal

47,467 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump’s Iran war and “Financial D-Day” are accelerating the very dollar crisis Washington is trying to avoid. Macroeconomic analyst Luke Gromen points out that before the U.S attacked Iran, 10-year Treasury yields were around 3.94% and oil was roughly $62. Now oil is around $86, and the 10-year is pushing 4.7%, a level Luke says has repeatedly forced Washington to intervene in the markets. First came intervention around the yen, then larger Treasury buybacks. Now there's talk of expanding those buybacks further and potentially running down the Treasury General Account to support the long end of the bond market. Luke describes it as plugging holes in a dam: every time Washington sticks its finger into one, another springs open. And now Trump is launching the biggest financial offensive against Iran ever attempted. Luke thinks that's pouring gasoline on the problem, because America's greatest financial weapon is also one of the foundations of its global power: The dollar. Washington can cut countries off from the financial system, freeze reserves, sanction banks, and make it extraordinarily difficult for companies around the world to do business with America's enemies. But every time the U.S demonstrates that another country's dollar assets can be frozen, restricted, or rendered difficult to sell, Luke argues it gives foreign governments another reason to ask a dangerous question: Why are we storing our national wealth in an asset somebody else can decide we aren't allowed to use? And according to Luke, that shift began long before Trump's latest Iran offensive. Luke Gromen

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump’s Iran war and “Financial D-Day” are accelerating the very dollar crisis Washington is trying to avoid. Macroeconomic analyst Luke Gromen points out that before the U.S attacked Iran, 10-year Treasury yields were around 3.94% and oil was roughly $62. Now oil is around $86, and the 10-year is pushing 4.7%, a level Luke says has repeatedly forced Washington to intervene in the markets. First came intervention around the yen, then larger Treasury buybacks. Now there's talk of expanding those buybacks further and potentially running down the Treasury General Account to support the long end of the bond market. Luke describes it as plugging holes in a dam: every time Washington sticks its finger into one, another springs open. And now Trump is launching the biggest financial offensive against Iran ever attempted. Luke thinks that's pouring gasoline on the problem, because America's greatest financial weapon is also one of the foundations of its global power: The dollar. Washington can cut countries off from the financial system, freeze reserves, sanction banks, and make it extraordinarily difficult for companies around the world to do business with America's enemies. But every time the U.S demonstrates that another country's dollar assets can be frozen, restricted, or rendered difficult to sell, Luke argues it gives foreign governments another reason to ask a dangerous question: Why are we storing our national wealth in an asset somebody else can decide we aren't allowed to use? And according to Luke, that shift began long before Trump's latest Iran offensive. Luke Gromen

Mario Nawfal

353,164 просмотров • 10 дней назад

🇺🇸🇨🇳 Weaponizing the dollar without a factory base behind it ends one way. Macroeconomic analyst Luke Gromen says a reserve currency used as a weapon is only as strong as the industrial capacity standing behind it, and America let that capacity go while the leverage still felt free. Every superpower that stopped building physical things eventually met creditors who wanted real value rather than paper, and Luke's warning is that protecting today's privileges is exactly how the next decade gets handed to a rival. Luke Gromen

🇺🇸🇨🇳 Weaponizing the dollar without a factory base behind it ends one way. Macroeconomic analyst Luke Gromen says a reserve currency used as a weapon is only as strong as the industrial capacity standing behind it, and America let that capacity go while the leverage still felt free. Every superpower that stopped building physical things eventually met creditors who wanted real value rather than paper, and Luke's warning is that protecting today's privileges is exactly how the next decade gets handed to a rival. Luke Gromen

Mario Nawfal

59,041 просмотров • 10 дней назад

Markets are calling the bluff. Treasury yields keep ripping higher, and for the first time in a long time, Washington looks powerless to stop it. Ran Neuner

Markets are calling the bluff. Treasury yields keep ripping higher, and for the first time in a long time, Washington looks powerless to stop it. Ran Neuner

The Wolf Of All Streets

20,929 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The world economy is being severely strained by the Iran war, and the end of it will just be the start of economic recovery. Luke Gromen says the IRGC hardliners want to keep fighting, because time is on their side. "We're now past borrowed time. We're already starting to see the breakdowns. And the problem is, once the breakdowns really accelerate in the global economy, supply chains, it takes a lot longer to put Humpty Dumpty back together again." Luke Gromen

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The world economy is being severely strained by the Iran war, and the end of it will just be the start of economic recovery. Luke Gromen says the IRGC hardliners want to keep fighting, because time is on their side. "We're now past borrowed time. We're already starting to see the breakdowns. And the problem is, once the breakdowns really accelerate in the global economy, supply chains, it takes a lot longer to put Humpty Dumpty back together again." Luke Gromen

Mario Nawfal

16,234 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

🇺🇸 Washington is throwing $40 billion at a $40 trillion bond market. Financial journalist David Lin says the arithmetic doomed the intervention before it started, and traders worked that out immediately: "The Treasury won't have enough firepower to enact meaningful long term change to the direction of the yields." Yields have already climbed back, which is the market's way of pricing what the announcement is actually worth. David Lin

🇺🇸 Washington is throwing $40 billion at a $40 trillion bond market. Financial journalist David Lin says the arithmetic doomed the intervention before it started, and traders worked that out immediately: "The Treasury won't have enough firepower to enact meaningful long term change to the direction of the yields." Yields have already climbed back, which is the market's way of pricing what the announcement is actually worth. David Lin

Mario Nawfal

58,971 просмотров • 3 дней назад

🇺🇸 The bond market may break before this war ends. Col. Douglas Macgregor warns that the liquidity being pumped in is covering for a sovereign debt problem that keeps compounding underneath it. Push Treasury yields past a certain threshold and the obligations stop being payable at all, which is the point where the dollar's standing stops being a debate among economists and turns into something everyone feels. Douglas Macgregor

🇺🇸 The bond market may break before this war ends. Col. Douglas Macgregor warns that the liquidity being pumped in is covering for a sovereign debt problem that keeps compounding underneath it. Push Treasury yields past a certain threshold and the obligations stop being payable at all, which is the point where the dollar's standing stops being a debate among economists and turns into something everyone feels. Douglas Macgregor

Mario Nawfal

29,959 просмотров • 15 дней назад

🇺🇸 Philip Pilkington says the Treasury stepped into the bond market to push long-term yields lower. It worked for about a day. Then yields rose again. The problem is bigger than one failed intervention. The Treasury wants cheaper long-term borrowing, while the Fed is reluctant to cut rates because inflation remains above target. Meanwhile, Japan may be forced to sell more U.S. Treasuries, and the ECB is openly warning that the AI boom looks like a bubble. Different institutions. Different incentives. One increasingly stressed financial system. Pilkington's phrase for it is clean and simple: They're fighting gravity. Philip Pilkington

🇺🇸 Philip Pilkington says the Treasury stepped into the bond market to push long-term yields lower. It worked for about a day. Then yields rose again. The problem is bigger than one failed intervention. The Treasury wants cheaper long-term borrowing, while the Fed is reluctant to cut rates because inflation remains above target. Meanwhile, Japan may be forced to sell more U.S. Treasuries, and the ECB is openly warning that the AI boom looks like a bubble. Different institutions. Different incentives. One increasingly stressed financial system. Pilkington's phrase for it is clean and simple: They're fighting gravity. Philip Pilkington

Mario Nawfal

87,510 просмотров • 14 дней назад

🇺🇸🇨🇳 INTERVIEW: “THE U.S. AND CHINA ARE IN ECONOMIC MUTUALLY ASSURED DESTRUCTION” Luke Gromen, Macroeconomic Strategist “If the U.S. and China tried to break ties completely, both economies would collapse, but not at the same time. The U.S. is like a fighter with broken ribs. China knows it and keeps hitting where it hurts. Those ribs are America’s bond market. When Treasury volatility spiked to historic levels, it showed how fragile our debt system really is. If either side pushes too hard, it could trigger a financial chain reaction that takes both down.”

🇺🇸🇨🇳 INTERVIEW: “THE U.S. AND CHINA ARE IN ECONOMIC MUTUALLY ASSURED DESTRUCTION” Luke Gromen, Macroeconomic Strategist “If the U.S. and China tried to break ties completely, both economies would collapse, but not at the same time. The U.S. is like a fighter with broken ribs. China knows it and keeps hitting where it hurts. Those ribs are America’s bond market. When Treasury volatility spiked to historic levels, it showed how fragile our debt system really is. If either side pushes too hard, it could trigger a financial chain reaction that takes both down.”

Mario Nawfal

560,343 просмотров • 10 месяцев назад

Before Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent unveils what he calls an “economic D-Day” of the “toughest sanctions in history” against Iran at 2 p.m. ET Monday, Jeff Currie, Goldman Sachs’ former global head of commodities research, explains how Bessent has already intervened across oil, currency and bond markets. Currie notes Washington pushed oil lower to contain inflation and long-term yields, then supported the yen and proposed Gulf swap lines to discourage foreign Treasury sales. With 30-year yields continuing to rise, Treasury doubled long-bond buybacks. He says Bessent is forcing prices below market fundamentals, calling it “financial repression” and a path toward dollar debasement which helps explain rising gold, silver and Bitcoin prices. Via Mario Nawfal (YouTube)

Before Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent unveils what he calls an “economic D-Day” of the “toughest sanctions in history” against Iran at 2 p.m. ET Monday, Jeff Currie, Goldman Sachs’ former global head of commodities research, explains how Bessent has already intervened across oil, currency and bond markets. Currie notes Washington pushed oil lower to contain inflation and long-term yields, then supported the yen and proposed Gulf swap lines to discourage foreign Treasury sales. With 30-year yields continuing to rise, Treasury doubled long-bond buybacks. He says Bessent is forcing prices below market fundamentals, calling it “financial repression” and a path toward dollar debasement which helps explain rising gold, silver and Bitcoin prices. Via Mario Nawfal (YouTube)

Drop Site

83,101 просмотров • 11 дней назад

🇺🇸🇨🇳 One war, and the entire dollar-based energy order is being stress-tested at once. Luke Gromen explained how China can rely on months of stockpiled oil reserves, while Europe, Australia, and much of Asia would run short far sooner, and why the UAE floating yuan-based oil pricing is such a critical warning sign. "Unless you weaken the dollar, we're going to keep switching to Chinese yuan." Iran has escalation dominance. Time is on their side. And China hasn't lost a thing just watching. Luke Gromen

🇺🇸🇨🇳 One war, and the entire dollar-based energy order is being stress-tested at once. Luke Gromen explained how China can rely on months of stockpiled oil reserves, while Europe, Australia, and much of Asia would run short far sooner, and why the UAE floating yuan-based oil pricing is such a critical warning sign. "Unless you weaken the dollar, we're going to keep switching to Chinese yuan." Iran has escalation dominance. Time is on their side. And China hasn't lost a thing just watching. Luke Gromen

Mario Nawfal

37,543 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

GROMEN SUSPECTS INSIDER SHORTS CRUSHED OIL PRICES TO SAVE BONDS Luke Gromen just laid out how oil prices were managed during the Iran conflict. The veteran macro analyst watched the chaos unfold and saw a clear pattern of deliberate intervention instead of free markets at work. THE RIGGING PLAYBOOK ➡️ Gromen reveals that when oil exploded past $110 the Treasury unsanctioned Russian and Iranian crude within days. ➡️ This flooded supply exactly when 20 percent of global oil was cut off at the Strait of Hormuz. ➡️ The move flew in the face of existing sanctions and was spun as clever “jujitsu.” THE FRONT-RUNNING SUSPICIONS ➡️ Gromen suspects politically connected players front-ran massive positions at key moments. ➡️ On March 22 Trump tweeted plans to destroy Iran’s infrastructure, oil spiked, then someone shorted $500 million right before the “just kidding” reversal. ➡️ Days before the ceasefire another $950 million notional short hit futures at the perfect instant. THE TREASURY MARKET DRIVER ➡️ Gromen warns that soaring oil threatened to shatter Treasury volatility at levels that normally trigger emergency liquidity. ➡️ Policymakers chose artificial price management over letting markets price the real war risk. ➡️ This created what Gromen calls Schrödinger’s war — serious for policy, but never serious enough to let oil trade freely. THE LONG-TERM DAMAGE ➡️ Gromen suspects these tactics are eroding the sanctity of US markets. ➡️ Market participants now whisper the game feels rigged by insiders. ➡️ Trust is slipping fast, and once faith leaves it rarely returns. THE BOTTOM LINE They capped oil short-term to protect bonds and the narrative, but Luke Groman sees the permanent cost: markets that no longer feel fair or free. This is how you win the day and lose the decade. HT: YouTube misesmedia Luke Gromen #MarketRigging #OilPriceManipulation #LukeGroman #TreasuryShorts #InsiderFutures #BondMarketPanic #USMarketTrust

GROMEN SUSPECTS INSIDER SHORTS CRUSHED OIL PRICES TO SAVE BONDS Luke Gromen just laid out how oil prices were managed during the Iran conflict. The veteran macro analyst watched the chaos unfold and saw a clear pattern of deliberate intervention instead of free markets at work. THE RIGGING PLAYBOOK ➡️ Gromen reveals that when oil exploded past $110 the Treasury unsanctioned Russian and Iranian crude within days. ➡️ This flooded supply exactly when 20 percent of global oil was cut off at the Strait of Hormuz. ➡️ The move flew in the face of existing sanctions and was spun as clever “jujitsu.” THE FRONT-RUNNING SUSPICIONS ➡️ Gromen suspects politically connected players front-ran massive positions at key moments. ➡️ On March 22 Trump tweeted plans to destroy Iran’s infrastructure, oil spiked, then someone shorted $500 million right before the “just kidding” reversal. ➡️ Days before the ceasefire another $950 million notional short hit futures at the perfect instant. THE TREASURY MARKET DRIVER ➡️ Gromen warns that soaring oil threatened to shatter Treasury volatility at levels that normally trigger emergency liquidity. ➡️ Policymakers chose artificial price management over letting markets price the real war risk. ➡️ This created what Gromen calls Schrödinger’s war — serious for policy, but never serious enough to let oil trade freely. THE LONG-TERM DAMAGE ➡️ Gromen suspects these tactics are eroding the sanctity of US markets. ➡️ Market participants now whisper the game feels rigged by insiders. ➡️ Trust is slipping fast, and once faith leaves it rarely returns. THE BOTTOM LINE They capped oil short-term to protect bonds and the narrative, but Luke Groman sees the permanent cost: markets that no longer feel fair or free. This is how you win the day and lose the decade. HT: YouTube misesmedia Luke Gromen #MarketRigging #OilPriceManipulation #LukeGroman #TreasuryShorts #InsiderFutures #BondMarketPanic #USMarketTrust

Mark

136,298 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

🇺🇸 The U.S. Treasury is trying to stop bond yields from rising. But according to David Lin, Washington may be picking a fight with a market it simply doesn't have enough firepower to control. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubled planned bond buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation, signalling that Washington is prepared to intervene more aggressively. Yields fell for one day. Then they went straight back up. The problem is scale. The Treasury market is measured in tens of trillions of dollars, making $4 billion of intervention little more than a signal. And if yields keep rising, the consequences spread far beyond Wall Street. Mortgages, corporate borrowing and government debt servicing all become more expensive. Lin's bigger concern is what governments do when financial pressure starts limiting their options. Higher debt costs could push governments toward more aggressive tariffs, trade wars and foreign-policy decisions as they try to protect their economies. Meanwhile, the dollar remains the world's dominant safe haven, even as central banks accumulate more gold and countries increasingly look for ways around a dollar-based system. And then there's the Iran war. Lin argues that the conflict has exposed another vulnerability: energy infrastructure is remarkably easy to disrupt with cheap drones. Refineries, pipelines and shipping can all become targets, creating a much bigger problem for an already fragile global economy. So the biggest risk may not be a sudden financial collapse. It may be governments gradually losing room to maneuver, while markets become increasingly unwilling to listen. The Treasury can announce bigger interventions. The bond market can simply decide they aren't big enough. David Lin

🇺🇸 The U.S. Treasury is trying to stop bond yields from rising. But according to David Lin, Washington may be picking a fight with a market it simply doesn't have enough firepower to control. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubled planned bond buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation, signalling that Washington is prepared to intervene more aggressively. Yields fell for one day. Then they went straight back up. The problem is scale. The Treasury market is measured in tens of trillions of dollars, making $4 billion of intervention little more than a signal. And if yields keep rising, the consequences spread far beyond Wall Street. Mortgages, corporate borrowing and government debt servicing all become more expensive. Lin's bigger concern is what governments do when financial pressure starts limiting their options. Higher debt costs could push governments toward more aggressive tariffs, trade wars and foreign-policy decisions as they try to protect their economies. Meanwhile, the dollar remains the world's dominant safe haven, even as central banks accumulate more gold and countries increasingly look for ways around a dollar-based system. And then there's the Iran war. Lin argues that the conflict has exposed another vulnerability: energy infrastructure is remarkably easy to disrupt with cheap drones. Refineries, pipelines and shipping can all become targets, creating a much bigger problem for an already fragile global economy. So the biggest risk may not be a sudden financial collapse. It may be governments gradually losing room to maneuver, while markets become increasingly unwilling to listen. The Treasury can announce bigger interventions. The bond market can simply decide they aren't big enough. David Lin

Mario Nawfal

295,040 просмотров • 11 дней назад

🇺🇸🇨🇳 China has been quietly breaking free from the dollar system for over a decade, and even most in finance missed every sign it was happening. Luke Gromen traces it all back, from the Shanghai Gold Exchange in 2014 to the yuan oil contract in 2018 to record trade surpluses that keep growing even as the yuan strengthens. "China and Russia looked at that, and said 'we've got to get out of the dollar system. We have to create an alternative, otherwise any war that started would be over day one.'" The footprints are in the markets. Most just don't know what to look for. Luke Gromen

🇺🇸🇨🇳 China has been quietly breaking free from the dollar system for over a decade, and even most in finance missed every sign it was happening. Luke Gromen traces it all back, from the Shanghai Gold Exchange in 2014 to the yuan oil contract in 2018 to record trade surpluses that keep growing even as the yuan strengthens. "China and Russia looked at that, and said 'we've got to get out of the dollar system. We have to create an alternative, otherwise any war that started would be over day one.'" The footprints are in the markets. Most just don't know what to look for. Luke Gromen

Mario Nawfal

147,496 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

🇺🇸🇯🇵 Mohamed El-Erian: Washington is trying to impose outcomes on markets that fundamentals don't support The yen intervention isn't working. The attempt to push down long-term Treasury yields isn't working either. And Mohamed El-Erian thinks both are symptoms of the same problem: Washington increasingly believes government policy can dictate market outcomes. Markets are reminding it otherwise. Japan has already sold roughly $96 billion in foreign securities in a month while defending the yen, putting additional upward pressure on U.S. yields. Yet the yen has weakened again, creating what El-Erian agrees is essentially a vicious loop: defend the yen, sell Treasuries, push U.S. yields higher, make the carry trade more attractive, weaken the yen again. Washington is simultaneously trying its own financial engineering. With mortgage costs hurting voters ahead of the midterms, the administration wants lower long-term yields. But El-Erian says Treasury lacks the “bazooka” required to overpower a market this large. Without fixing the fundamentals, intervention becomes another Band-Aid. And those fundamentals aren't pretty. U.S. debt has crossed $40 trillion, doubled in 10 years, and interest payments are rising roughly 15% annually. Meanwhile, the AI boom is creating another enormous demand for capital, forcing government, companies and households to compete for money and pushing borrowing costs higher. El-Erian's broader warning is about “geo-economics.” Tariffs. Sanctions. Currency intervention. Treasury intervention. Economic tools increasingly look attractive because their costs aren't immediately visible. But the costs don't disappear. They accumulate. And eventually, El-Erian warns, markets will react. Mohamed A. El-Erian

🇺🇸🇯🇵 Mohamed El-Erian: Washington is trying to impose outcomes on markets that fundamentals don't support The yen intervention isn't working. The attempt to push down long-term Treasury yields isn't working either. And Mohamed El-Erian thinks both are symptoms of the same problem: Washington increasingly believes government policy can dictate market outcomes. Markets are reminding it otherwise. Japan has already sold roughly $96 billion in foreign securities in a month while defending the yen, putting additional upward pressure on U.S. yields. Yet the yen has weakened again, creating what El-Erian agrees is essentially a vicious loop: defend the yen, sell Treasuries, push U.S. yields higher, make the carry trade more attractive, weaken the yen again. Washington is simultaneously trying its own financial engineering. With mortgage costs hurting voters ahead of the midterms, the administration wants lower long-term yields. But El-Erian says Treasury lacks the “bazooka” required to overpower a market this large. Without fixing the fundamentals, intervention becomes another Band-Aid. And those fundamentals aren't pretty. U.S. debt has crossed $40 trillion, doubled in 10 years, and interest payments are rising roughly 15% annually. Meanwhile, the AI boom is creating another enormous demand for capital, forcing government, companies and households to compete for money and pushing borrowing costs higher. El-Erian's broader warning is about “geo-economics.” Tariffs. Sanctions. Currency intervention. Treasury intervention. Economic tools increasingly look attractive because their costs aren't immediately visible. But the costs don't disappear. They accumulate. And eventually, El-Erian warns, markets will react. Mohamed A. El-Erian

Mario Nawfal

404,344 просмотров • 5 дней назад

🚨 TOMORROW COULD BE THE WORST DAY OF 2026 FOR MARKETS. You need to understand what’s happening before August 24. Japan and China are both reducing exposure to U.S. Treasuries while China keeps accumulating gold. This is much bigger than one bond trade. For decades, near-zero Japanese rates created one of the biggest carry trades in history: Japan and China are forcing capital back into their countries. And the biggest carry trade in history is now starting to unwind. This is NOT normal. For decades, Japan kept interest rates near zero. That turned the yen into the world's cheapest funding currency. Investors borrowed trillions of yen. Then they poured that money into U.S. Treasuries, stocks, real estate, crypto, and markets around the world. That trade is now breaking apart. Japan is facing soaring government debt. A rapidly aging population. Massive pension obligations. And years of pressure from a weak yen. Now policymakers want that capital back home. And now China is adding another layer of pressure to the U.S. Treasury market. China has been steadily reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasuries. Chinese Treasury holdings just fell to $633 BILLION, the lowest level since 2008. At the same time, China continues to build its gold reserves. → U.S. Treasuries get reduced → Gold holdings increase → Demand for U.S. debt weakens → Pressure on Treasury yields increases Japan and China were both among the major sources of the latest decline in foreign Treasury holdings. And when two of the world's biggest holders reduce their exposure at the same time... Someone else has to absorb that supply. That means higher yields are required to attract buyers. And U.S. bond yields are already surging. The 30-year Treasury yield recently pushed above 5.3%, reaching levels not seen since 2007. The U.S. Treasury is now forced to buy back its own debt because no one else wants it. Read that again. This is the part most people are missing. Japan is pulling capital toward Japan. China is reducing Treasury exposure and increasing its strategic gold position. → Foreign Treasury demand weakens → Treasury prices fall → U.S. bond yields rise → Borrowing costs increase → Liquidity tightens This creates another feedback loop. Higher U.S. yields increase the cost of financing the enormous U.S. government debt load. Higher Japanese yields make Japanese assets more attractive. And China's continued diversification adds another structural source of pressure to the Treasury market. Pay attention. Most people won't understand why markets are collapsing until it's already happening. I’ve studied markets for over 12 years and called nearly every major top and bottom. If you want to survive the 2026 cycle, follow and turn notifications on. I warned you before. And I'll warn you again soon. A lot of people will wish they paid attention earlier.

🚨 TOMORROW COULD BE THE WORST DAY OF 2026 FOR MARKETS. You need to understand what’s happening before August 24. Japan and China are both reducing exposure to U.S. Treasuries while China keeps accumulating gold. This is much bigger than one bond trade. For decades, near-zero Japanese rates created one of the biggest carry trades in history: Japan and China are forcing capital back into their countries. And the biggest carry trade in history is now starting to unwind. This is NOT normal. For decades, Japan kept interest rates near zero. That turned the yen into the world's cheapest funding currency. Investors borrowed trillions of yen. Then they poured that money into U.S. Treasuries, stocks, real estate, crypto, and markets around the world. That trade is now breaking apart. Japan is facing soaring government debt. A rapidly aging population. Massive pension obligations. And years of pressure from a weak yen. Now policymakers want that capital back home. And now China is adding another layer of pressure to the U.S. Treasury market. China has been steadily reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasuries. Chinese Treasury holdings just fell to $633 BILLION, the lowest level since 2008. At the same time, China continues to build its gold reserves. → U.S. Treasuries get reduced → Gold holdings increase → Demand for U.S. debt weakens → Pressure on Treasury yields increases Japan and China were both among the major sources of the latest decline in foreign Treasury holdings. And when two of the world's biggest holders reduce their exposure at the same time... Someone else has to absorb that supply. That means higher yields are required to attract buyers. And U.S. bond yields are already surging. The 30-year Treasury yield recently pushed above 5.3%, reaching levels not seen since 2007. The U.S. Treasury is now forced to buy back its own debt because no one else wants it. Read that again. This is the part most people are missing. Japan is pulling capital toward Japan. China is reducing Treasury exposure and increasing its strategic gold position. → Foreign Treasury demand weakens → Treasury prices fall → U.S. bond yields rise → Borrowing costs increase → Liquidity tightens This creates another feedback loop. Higher U.S. yields increase the cost of financing the enormous U.S. government debt load. Higher Japanese yields make Japanese assets more attractive. And China's continued diversification adds another structural source of pressure to the Treasury market. Pay attention. Most people won't understand why markets are collapsing until it's already happening. I’ve studied markets for over 12 years and called nearly every major top and bottom. If you want to survive the 2026 cycle, follow and turn notifications on. I warned you before. And I'll warn you again soon. A lot of people will wish they paid attention earlier.

DANNY

187,057 просмотров • 11 дней назад

Ray Dalio explains how financial repression begins once the debt problem gets out of control. It starts with a simple reality: One man’s debt is another man’s asset. Government debt is not just a liability for the government. It is also the asset sitting inside pension funds, banks, insurance companies, foreign reserves and portfolios. But here is the problem. If those bonds do not offer a good real return after inflation, investors stop wanting them. So yields rise. And when yields rise, the government’s debt burden becomes even harder to manage. That is the trap. At some point, the system cannot tolerate true market-priced interest rates anymore. So policy steps in. The Treasury keeps issuing debt. The Fed is pressured to help absorb it or suppress yields. Inflation is allowed to run above bond returns. Taxes on capital and wealth rise. And savers are slowly paid back in money that buys less. This is financial repression. It does not look like default on paper. But in real purchasing power terms, it is a slow default on savers. That is why Dalio keeps pointing toward gold. Because when bonds stop protecting real wealth, capital starts looking for assets outside the paper promise system. The core message is simple: The government needs cheap funding. Investors need real returns. Both cannot win at the same time. And historically, when the debt burden becomes too large, policy chooses the debtor over the saver.

Ray Dalio explains how financial repression begins once the debt problem gets out of control. It starts with a simple reality: One man’s debt is another man’s asset. Government debt is not just a liability for the government. It is also the asset sitting inside pension funds, banks, insurance companies, foreign reserves and portfolios. But here is the problem. If those bonds do not offer a good real return after inflation, investors stop wanting them. So yields rise. And when yields rise, the government’s debt burden becomes even harder to manage. That is the trap. At some point, the system cannot tolerate true market-priced interest rates anymore. So policy steps in. The Treasury keeps issuing debt. The Fed is pressured to help absorb it or suppress yields. Inflation is allowed to run above bond returns. Taxes on capital and wealth rise. And savers are slowly paid back in money that buys less. This is financial repression. It does not look like default on paper. But in real purchasing power terms, it is a slow default on savers. That is why Dalio keeps pointing toward gold. Because when bonds stop protecting real wealth, capital starts looking for assets outside the paper promise system. The core message is simple: The government needs cheap funding. Investors need real returns. Both cannot win at the same time. And historically, when the debt burden becomes too large, policy chooses the debtor over the saver.

Macro Liquidity by Sunil Reddy

11,723 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

🇨🇳 INTERVIEW: “CHINA IS USING GOLD TO CHALLENGE THE DOLLAR SYSTEM” Luke Gromen, Macroeconomic Strategist “China studied how the U.S. lost control of the gold peg in the 1970s and built a system that avoids the same weakness. By allowing the gold price to float in yuan rather than fixing it, they protect themselves from a direct run on their currency. And by keeping their own gold off the market, they can use it strategically without showing all their cards. It’s not about replacing the dollar overnight. It’s about creating an alternative that slowly shifts power away from the current system.”

🇨🇳 INTERVIEW: “CHINA IS USING GOLD TO CHALLENGE THE DOLLAR SYSTEM” Luke Gromen, Macroeconomic Strategist “China studied how the U.S. lost control of the gold peg in the 1970s and built a system that avoids the same weakness. By allowing the gold price to float in yuan rather than fixing it, they protect themselves from a direct run on their currency. And by keeping their own gold off the market, they can use it strategically without showing all their cards. It’s not about replacing the dollar overnight. It’s about creating an alternative that slowly shifts power away from the current system.”

Mario Nawfal

42,230 просмотров • 10 месяцев назад

LUKE GROMEN: GOLD TO RUN THE US TRADE DEFICIT – $10K-$20K+ AHEAD? Macro strategist Luke Gromen drops a mind-bending take: the US isn't just exporting gold randomly—it's de facto settling massive trade deficits with physical gold flows. This could force gold prices way higher, paving the way for an official revaluation to tackle the debt mountain. THE GOLD EXPORT PARADOX – STRATEGY, NOT WEAKNESS ➡️ Gromen says recent US gold exports don't kill the revaluation idea—they actually make it possible. ➡️ The trade deficit is enormous and nobody else wants to keep financing it forever. ➡️ Gold flows out to settle parts of it, letting the market bid the price up naturally. HOW GOLD STARTS "RUNNING" THE DEFICIT ➡️ No paper market alone can absorb deficits this size anymore. ➡️ Gold becomes the neutral settlement asset when the price rises high enough. ➡️ "Gold is going to run the deficits... rather than the US running the deficits." THE PRICE LEVELS REQUIRED FOR THIS SHIFT ➡️ $5,000 gold is far too low to handle the volume needed. ➡️ Real settlement power requires $10,000, $15,000 or even $20,000+ gold. ➡️ "It's not going to happen at $5,000 gold. It's going to need $10,000 gold, $15,000 gold, $20,000 gold." THE REVALUATION PLAY THAT FOLLOWS ➡️ Once trade bids gold that high, the US can simply revalue its official holdings. ➡️ One accounting move marks gold to market and creates trillions instantly. ➡️ Treasury Secretary gets huge flexibility to shorten the long end of the curve and strengthen the balance sheet. CHINA'S TREASURY REDUCTION – SMART, NOT DESPERATE ➡️ Cutting Treasuries is not proof of a collapsing Chinese economy. ➡️ Desperate nations sell gold—China keeps aggressively buying it. ➡️ This looks like preparation for a stronger yuan, weaker dollar deal tied to future trade talks. THE BOTTOM LINE Luke Gromen sees America's trade deficits turning into the ultimate bullish driver for gold, quietly forcing a much higher price floor before the US rides the wave to recapitalize its books in one clean move. The old dollar-deficit era ends not with a crash, but with gold quietly taking over the burden. HT: Luke Gromen #Gold #Macro #TradeDeficit #LukeGromen #MonetaryReset #DollarSystem

LUKE GROMEN: GOLD TO RUN THE US TRADE DEFICIT – $10K-$20K+ AHEAD? Macro strategist Luke Gromen drops a mind-bending take: the US isn't just exporting gold randomly—it's de facto settling massive trade deficits with physical gold flows. This could force gold prices way higher, paving the way for an official revaluation to tackle the debt mountain. THE GOLD EXPORT PARADOX – STRATEGY, NOT WEAKNESS ➡️ Gromen says recent US gold exports don't kill the revaluation idea—they actually make it possible. ➡️ The trade deficit is enormous and nobody else wants to keep financing it forever. ➡️ Gold flows out to settle parts of it, letting the market bid the price up naturally. HOW GOLD STARTS "RUNNING" THE DEFICIT ➡️ No paper market alone can absorb deficits this size anymore. ➡️ Gold becomes the neutral settlement asset when the price rises high enough. ➡️ "Gold is going to run the deficits... rather than the US running the deficits." THE PRICE LEVELS REQUIRED FOR THIS SHIFT ➡️ $5,000 gold is far too low to handle the volume needed. ➡️ Real settlement power requires $10,000, $15,000 or even $20,000+ gold. ➡️ "It's not going to happen at $5,000 gold. It's going to need $10,000 gold, $15,000 gold, $20,000 gold." THE REVALUATION PLAY THAT FOLLOWS ➡️ Once trade bids gold that high, the US can simply revalue its official holdings. ➡️ One accounting move marks gold to market and creates trillions instantly. ➡️ Treasury Secretary gets huge flexibility to shorten the long end of the curve and strengthen the balance sheet. CHINA'S TREASURY REDUCTION – SMART, NOT DESPERATE ➡️ Cutting Treasuries is not proof of a collapsing Chinese economy. ➡️ Desperate nations sell gold—China keeps aggressively buying it. ➡️ This looks like preparation for a stronger yuan, weaker dollar deal tied to future trade talks. THE BOTTOM LINE Luke Gromen sees America's trade deficits turning into the ultimate bullish driver for gold, quietly forcing a much higher price floor before the US rides the wave to recapitalize its books in one clean move. The old dollar-deficit era ends not with a crash, but with gold quietly taking over the burden. HT: Luke Gromen #Gold #Macro #TradeDeficit #LukeGromen #MonetaryReset #DollarSystem

Mark

168,466 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад