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McCullough: U.S. Dollar Weakness Could Trigger Market Correlation Risk 💰 Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough flagged a growing divide between the U.S. Dollar and the S&P 500, gold, and more in this important clip from Thursday’s edition of "The Macro Show." 🔊 With Hedgeye forecasts calling for a renewed rise...

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46,133 views • 1 year ago •via X (Twitter)

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McCullough: Fed’s Powell Remains ‘Full of Sh*t’ 🔊 "How about them eggs? You been paying a lot for eggs?" 🍳 asks Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in this clip from “The Macro Show” this morning. It's become blatantly obvious that the Fed is either ignorant or outright lying about inflation. "[Powell] is full of sh*t," McCullough says. "It's getting worse. It's more of a clown show than it's ever been. And we know what to do with it: front-run the next print." * * * * * If you're new to Hedgeye, make sure to download our Founder & CEO Keith McCullough's new eBook "Master The Market: A Hedge Fund Manager’s Guide to Process and Profit" It's free here:
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McCullough: Fed’s Powell Remains ‘Full of Sh*t’ 🔊 "How about them eggs? You been paying a lot for eggs?" 🍳 asks Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in this clip from “The Macro Show” this morning. It's become blatantly obvious that the Fed is either ignorant or outright lying about inflation. "[Powell] is full of sh*t," McCullough says. "It's getting worse. It's more of a clown show than it's ever been. And we know what to do with it: front-run the next print." * * * * * If you're new to Hedgeye, make sure to download our Founder & CEO Keith McCullough's new eBook "Master The Market: A Hedge Fund Manager’s Guide to Process and Profit" It's free here:

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Avoid The Pain Trade ☠️ Every hedge fund (and trader) obviously wants to avoid the "pain trade." In this clip from The Macro Show, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains how his unique portfolio construction rules can accomplish that. "Generally speaking, with the Hedgeye longs and shorts, you're not [going to take the pain trade]," McCullough says. "How many hedge funds are going on CNBC or talking to the Wall Street Journal about getting long the United Arab Emirates, corn, and IVOL?” “Zero." * * * * * Ditch consensus and start building your portfolio like a pro by subscribing to The Macro Show: Download Keith's free 52-page eBook "Master the Market: A Hedge Fund Manager’s Guide to Process and Profit" ➡️

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Inflation is +21% Higher Than Three Years Ago 😵‍💫 🔊 Despite recent headlines from mainstream financial media claiming inflation was “cooler than expected,” Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough set the record straight on "The Macro Show" this morning. He emphasized that inflation remains persistently high and continues to negatively impact everyday living costs for people. “There’s plenty of evidence to maintain our inflation outlook,” McCullough explained. “The cost of living is cumulative. Today’s inflation figure is actually 21.2% higher than it was three years ago.” McCullough’s analysis highlights the disconnect between media narratives on places likes CNBC and the real economic pressures facing consumers. * * * * * Download Keith McCullough's free 52-page eBook "Master The Market: A Hedge Fund Manager's Guide to Process and Profit":
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Inflation is +21% Higher Than Three Years Ago 😵‍💫 🔊 Despite recent headlines from mainstream financial media claiming inflation was “cooler than expected,” Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough set the record straight on "The Macro Show" this morning. He emphasized that inflation remains persistently high and continues to negatively impact everyday living costs for people. “There’s plenty of evidence to maintain our inflation outlook,” McCullough explained. “The cost of living is cumulative. Today’s inflation figure is actually 21.2% higher than it was three years ago.” McCullough’s analysis highlights the disconnect between media narratives on places likes CNBC and the real economic pressures facing consumers. * * * * * Download Keith McCullough's free 52-page eBook "Master The Market: A Hedge Fund Manager's Guide to Process and Profit":

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‘Gargantuan’ Turn In US Small Business Data 📊🚀 The pulse of the U.S. economy just delivered a jolt of optimism. NFIB Small Business data released on Tuesday surged to its highest level in more than three years, marking a dramatic turnaround that has analysts and investors taking notice. In this clip from "The Macro Show," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough breaks down the implications of this significant move and its potential to fuel an extended market bull run. "This is a very good leading indicator when you come out of the bottom," McCullough explains. "This is a gargantuan turn in small business. I can only go back so many times in my career and find something like this." * * * Get a free copy of Keith's new 52-page eBook "Master The Market: A Hedge Fund Manager's Guide to Process and Profit":

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102,594 views • 1 year ago

Gold vs. Bitcoin: Navigating The Risk Divergence 📈 A reminder that you don't need to wear a drawdown in Bitcoin (or any asset for that matter) just because someone with "laser eyes" says to buy and hold at all times. At Hedgeye we manage risk, and if you did that properly, you would have handled the 1700 basis points divergence between gold $GLD and Bitcoin $BTC in February. That difference was fueled by a #Quad4 environment - but one that could soon be reversing. "Bitcoin is trying to make up its mind. It's got 3 or 4 days left of that. So what do you do? You wait and you watch," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains in this clip from "The Macro Show." "Everything is a number. The question is, do you see it?" * * * * * You can download Keith's new, 52-page eBook "Master The Market: A Hedge Fund Manager's Guide to Process and Profit" for FREE here:
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Gold vs. Bitcoin: Navigating The Risk Divergence 📈 A reminder that you don't need to wear a drawdown in Bitcoin (or any asset for that matter) just because someone with "laser eyes" says to buy and hold at all times. At Hedgeye we manage risk, and if you did that properly, you would have handled the 1700 basis points divergence between gold $GLD and Bitcoin $BTC in February. That difference was fueled by a #Quad4 environment - but one that could soon be reversing. "Bitcoin is trying to make up its mind. It's got 3 or 4 days left of that. So what do you do? You wait and you watch," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains in this clip from "The Macro Show." "Everything is a number. The question is, do you see it?" * * * * * You can download Keith's new, 52-page eBook "Master The Market: A Hedge Fund Manager's Guide to Process and Profit" for FREE here:

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The Market’s Most Bearish Signal Right Now ⚠️ A key Hedgeye Risk Range Signal™ just flipped: Nvidia $NVDA is now in a Bearish trend. 🔊 In this clip from "The Macro Show," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough breaks down why this shift matters. NVDA’s massive weighting in the market drives major moves—on Tuesday alone, it traded 254 million shares, accounting for nearly 12% of the S&P 500’s total upside. Yet, despite recent gains, NVDA remains in a Bearish trend. "In fractal math, we call these emergent properties—developments that set up the next pattern," McCullough explains. "What’s the next pattern? The stock market blowing up? Nvidia has already blown up." * * * * * * * Stay ahead of market shifts. Download Keith's new, 52-page eBook for FREE and see for yourself that there's a better way to protect and grow your money:

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McCullough: ‘Bitcoin May Be Bottoming’ 📉 In this clip from "The Macro Show," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough breaks down the latest market signals pointing to a potential bottom in Bitcoin after its drawdown from $125,000. Keith explains how Hedgeye’s quantitative risk management process has navigated every major move along the way – the drawdowns, the reversals, and the emerging signs of a regime shift. “So, if you want to go through how things stop signaling Quad 4, look at the worst place it's been Quad 4, which is of course Bitcoin,” McCullough says. Stay ahead of the next big move. Follow all of Keith’s signals with a subscription to "The Macro Show." ➡️

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When Will MSM Tell the Truth on Food Inflation? 🍳 🔊 Prices for U.S. consumers continue to rise, with the cost of eggs in particular skyrocketing over 7% in the last day alone and 12% over the last month. While the mainstream media was quick to report on (imaginary) improved prices for the cost of Thanksgiving dinner, they're predictably silent on this topic. "When people go to the store, they actually notice these things," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains in the clip below from "The Macro Show." * * * * * Tired of the MSM BS? We are too. Stay ahead of market moves with "The Macro Show" hosted weekday mornings by Keith McCullough. Get daily, actionable insights from a top Wall Street veteran, guiding you through important macro trends and portfolio risk management. Your edge starts here:
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When Will MSM Tell the Truth on Food Inflation? 🍳 🔊 Prices for U.S. consumers continue to rise, with the cost of eggs in particular skyrocketing over 7% in the last day alone and 12% over the last month. While the mainstream media was quick to report on (imaginary) improved prices for the cost of Thanksgiving dinner, they're predictably silent on this topic. "When people go to the store, they actually notice these things," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains in the clip below from "The Macro Show." * * * * * Tired of the MSM BS? We are too. Stay ahead of market moves with "The Macro Show" hosted weekday mornings by Keith McCullough. Get daily, actionable insights from a top Wall Street veteran, guiding you through important macro trends and portfolio risk management. Your edge starts here:

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37,917 views • 1 year ago

McCullough: No Recession—Rates Don’t Lie Markets can’t hide from the signals embedded in interest rates. 🔊 In this clip from The Macro Show, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough unpacks critical signals across the curve—each pointing to the same conclusion: the U.S. economy is accelerating. There’s no recession in sight. "We positioned for Quad 4 from February all the way to April. The Street started talking about a U.S. recession pending, which we did not," McCullough says. "Instead of entering a recession...credit risk continued to go down." That’s the key. While headlines warned of a slowdown, rates told a different story of acceleration, not recession. The yield curve steepened, credit spreads tightened—clear signals of a shifting market structure aligned with a strengthening economy. “We have a process to signal a recession…that is not it,” McCullough explains. “Paying attention to interest rates not only across the curve, inside of the shape of the curve—we’re long a steepener. I was adding to that on Friday too." Stay on top of the real macro signals by subscribing to "The Macro Show".
1:23

McCullough: No Recession—Rates Don’t Lie Markets can’t hide from the signals embedded in interest rates. 🔊 In this clip from The Macro Show, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough unpacks critical signals across the curve—each pointing to the same conclusion: the U.S. economy is accelerating. There’s no recession in sight. "We positioned for Quad 4 from February all the way to April. The Street started talking about a U.S. recession pending, which we did not," McCullough says. "Instead of entering a recession...credit risk continued to go down." That’s the key. While headlines warned of a slowdown, rates told a different story of acceleration, not recession. The yield curve steepened, credit spreads tightened—clear signals of a shifting market structure aligned with a strengthening economy. “We have a process to signal a recession…that is not it,” McCullough explains. “Paying attention to interest rates not only across the curve, inside of the shape of the curve—we’re long a steepener. I was adding to that on Friday too." Stay on top of the real macro signals by subscribing to "The Macro Show".

Hedgeye

227,204 views • 1 year ago

Squeezed: How Surging Inflation is Affecting the Lives of Everyday Americans 😬 🔊 Inflation is no longer just an economic term—it’s a painful reality affecting the lives of millions of Americans, from soaring grocery bills to sky-high restaurant tabs. In a lively discussion on "The Call @ Hedgeye" today, Macro analyst Josh Steiner Joshua Steiner and Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough brought the numbers to life with real-world examples of inflation’s impact. Steiner highlighted a recent Reddit post that spotlighted a jaw-dropping 32% price hike at a Texas restaurant in just three months, emphasizing the rapid pace of cost increases faced by everyday consumers. McCullough then turned the spotlight to global commodities, where inflation’s fingerprints are unmistakable. “Cocoa and coffee prices are on an epic tear,” he explained, before joking, “Pretty soon, instead of stacking gold coins, I might have to find a way to store coffee.” * * * New to Hedgeye? Download Keith McCullough’s new eBook, "Master The Market," and discover the proven investing strategies that have helped thousands of investors successfully navigate today’s changing markets. Get your free copy now!
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Squeezed: How Surging Inflation is Affecting the Lives of Everyday Americans 😬 🔊 Inflation is no longer just an economic term—it’s a painful reality affecting the lives of millions of Americans, from soaring grocery bills to sky-high restaurant tabs. In a lively discussion on "The Call @ Hedgeye" today, Macro analyst Josh Steiner Joshua Steiner and Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough brought the numbers to life with real-world examples of inflation’s impact. Steiner highlighted a recent Reddit post that spotlighted a jaw-dropping 32% price hike at a Texas restaurant in just three months, emphasizing the rapid pace of cost increases faced by everyday consumers. McCullough then turned the spotlight to global commodities, where inflation’s fingerprints are unmistakable. “Cocoa and coffee prices are on an epic tear,” he explained, before joking, “Pretty soon, instead of stacking gold coins, I might have to find a way to store coffee.” * * * New to Hedgeye? Download Keith McCullough’s new eBook, "Master The Market," and discover the proven investing strategies that have helped thousands of investors successfully navigate today’s changing markets. Get your free copy now!

Hedgeye

94,335 views • 1 year ago

Fed Rate Cut Coming? The Market Just Sent a Clear Signal 💰 Hedgeye’s proprietary signals are detecting a shift in the U.S. economic outlook, driven by a notable drop in the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield. 🔊 Our Macro team is now forecasting a period of disinflation—an environment that could pave the way for a Fed rate cut. “As Mandelbrot taught us, it’s the particular thing that matters in clock time, market time, or cycle time,” explains Keith McCullough. “And if you look at what’s happened in the last 48 hours, my Fed front-runner—the 2-year bond yield—broke down through trend.” * * * * * Download Keith McCullough's new, 52-page eBook "Master The Market" and learn the proven process behind smarter, risk-managed investing. Get it FREE here:
2:18

Fed Rate Cut Coming? The Market Just Sent a Clear Signal 💰 Hedgeye’s proprietary signals are detecting a shift in the U.S. economic outlook, driven by a notable drop in the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield. 🔊 Our Macro team is now forecasting a period of disinflation—an environment that could pave the way for a Fed rate cut. “As Mandelbrot taught us, it’s the particular thing that matters in clock time, market time, or cycle time,” explains Keith McCullough. “And if you look at what’s happened in the last 48 hours, my Fed front-runner—the 2-year bond yield—broke down through trend.” * * * * * Download Keith McCullough's new, 52-page eBook "Master The Market" and learn the proven process behind smarter, risk-managed investing. Get it FREE here:

Hedgeye

91,318 views • 1 year ago

McCullough: The Last Time Yields Did This, I Called the 2008 Crash 🔊 On Tuesday's edition of The Macro Show, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explained why he is still short long-term bonds at new cycle highs and what the last cycle says about where yields go from here. The 2-year yield made a new cycle high at 4.95% this morning, moving toward the top of the range at 5.00%, alongside a dollar breakout. The two signals travel together, and Hedgeye publishes a daily Risk Range™ on both the dollar index and the 2-year. The Fed is the setup. The market is pricing in more hikes than it probably should, and the Fed typically goes too far, reacting to late-cycle data on a lag. Until the bond market is done pricing that in, the short stays on. $TLT has been the vehicle, with $ZROZ on alongside it. "5.29-ish is where bond yields stopped going up in '07, when I started thinking about this pending market crash of 2008." What followed was the long cycle. "It went to 1.39% by 2012." Subscribe to The Macro Show for daily macro insights you won't find anywhere else:
2:33

McCullough: The Last Time Yields Did This, I Called the 2008 Crash 🔊 On Tuesday's edition of The Macro Show, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explained why he is still short long-term bonds at new cycle highs and what the last cycle says about where yields go from here. The 2-year yield made a new cycle high at 4.95% this morning, moving toward the top of the range at 5.00%, alongside a dollar breakout. The two signals travel together, and Hedgeye publishes a daily Risk Range™ on both the dollar index and the 2-year. The Fed is the setup. The market is pricing in more hikes than it probably should, and the Fed typically goes too far, reacting to late-cycle data on a lag. Until the bond market is done pricing that in, the short stays on. $TLT has been the vehicle, with $ZROZ on alongside it. "5.29-ish is where bond yields stopped going up in '07, when I started thinking about this pending market crash of 2008." What followed was the long cycle. "It went to 1.39% by 2012." Subscribe to The Macro Show for daily macro insights you won't find anywhere else:

Hedgeye

13,459 views • 6 days ago

“The dangers of sitting out the gold market are much more probable than the risks of being in it.” Rick Rule lays out the asymmetric case for gold as U.S. debt climbs and purchasing power erodes. Full conversation with Keith McCullough here:
2:18

“The dangers of sitting out the gold market are much more probable than the risks of being in it.” Rick Rule lays out the asymmetric case for gold as U.S. debt climbs and purchasing power erodes. Full conversation with Keith McCullough here:

Hedgeye

40,583 views • 1 month ago

McCullough: Bitcoin Doesn’t Care About Your Cost Basis 🔊 Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough made it clear this week: when downside accelerates, the market isn’t debating your cost basis or favorite “support level.” In fact, “the situation is accelerating at an accelerating rate,” explains McCullough. That’s why we focus on the rate of change, especially the volatility of volatility. “The volatility of volatility is going to get you to the right answer faster than the crowd.” Get Keith's quantitative Risk Range™ Signals and daily analysis on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and more, with our $BTC Trend Tracker: And for risk management insights you won’t get anywhere else, subscribe to The Macro Show:
3:39

McCullough: Bitcoin Doesn’t Care About Your Cost Basis 🔊 Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough made it clear this week: when downside accelerates, the market isn’t debating your cost basis or favorite “support level.” In fact, “the situation is accelerating at an accelerating rate,” explains McCullough. That’s why we focus on the rate of change, especially the volatility of volatility. “The volatility of volatility is going to get you to the right answer faster than the crowd.” Get Keith's quantitative Risk Range™ Signals and daily analysis on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and more, with our $BTC Trend Tracker: And for risk management insights you won’t get anywhere else, subscribe to The Macro Show:

Hedgeye

13,872 views • 8 months ago