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.Michael Weiss and Marc Polymeropoulos explain why Russia doesn’t need a full-scale invasion of NATO territory to test the alliance, and how even a limited strike could be designed to see whether the alliance responds when Article 5 is put on the line.

The Bulwark

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10,905 просмотров • 7 дней назад •via X (Twitter)

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Комментарии: 5

Фото профиля The Bulwark

The Bulwark7 дней назад

@Mpolymer Watch the full episode of Bulwark Takes:

Фото профиля dVN

dVN7 дней назад

@michaeldweiss @Mpolymer Weisser hasn't made a @ForeignOffPod in so long that it has actually become foreign.

Фото профиля Effina

Effina7 дней назад

@michaeldweiss @Mpolymer Trump is the only leader of a NATO country that said he wouldn’t commit to defending NATO allies under Article 5; even though every ally in NATO came to the defence of the U.S. right after the Sept 11 terrorist attack.

Фото профиля stephen albert

stephen albert7 дней назад

@michaeldweiss @Mpolymer How can NATO respond when Trump is pro-Putin?

Фото профиля Vincent Cogliano Jr

Vincent Cogliano Jr7 дней назад

@michaeldweiss @Mpolymer Once again, a couple of dopes trying to make something out of nothing. If Russia could have taken over Ukraine their combined armies could have posed a real threat to NATO. But now, are you kidding, Russia is a paper tiger. No threat to Poland or anyone. Get real fools.

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The Telegraph

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🇺🇸🇷🇺 U.S. intelligence has changed its assessment on Putin. For years the working assumption was that Russia was too bogged down in Ukraine to risk a direct confrontation with NATO. That view is now being revised. New reports detailed by U.S. officials warn that Putin could test the alliance with a limited or hybrid operation, potentially as soon as this fall, and out to 2029. The scenarios on the table are deliberately designed to stay below the threshold of a clear Article 5 trigger: - Major cyberattacks - Sabotage of critical infrastructure - Unmarked or deniable forces - A small-scale land probe along the eastern flank (Baltics or Poland most often mentioned) The goal would be to force NATO into the gray zone; where attribution is murky, the response has to be proportional, and every one of the 32 members has to decide how hard to push back. What’s driving the shift? Mounting pressure inside Russia, Ukrainian strikes deeper into Russian territory, and slower-than-expected battlefield gains. Officials now assess that limited escalation could start looking more attractive to the Kremlin, not less. The real test is political will: Can the alliance stay unified when Moscow deliberately makes the line between “aggression” and “war” hard to define? This is the kind of pressure point that could reshape European security for years. Source: The President's Daily Brief YT / Writer: Val

🇺🇸🇷🇺 U.S. intelligence has changed its assessment on Putin. For years the working assumption was that Russia was too bogged down in Ukraine to risk a direct confrontation with NATO. That view is now being revised. New reports detailed by U.S. officials warn that Putin could test the alliance with a limited or hybrid operation, potentially as soon as this fall, and out to 2029. The scenarios on the table are deliberately designed to stay below the threshold of a clear Article 5 trigger: - Major cyberattacks - Sabotage of critical infrastructure - Unmarked or deniable forces - A small-scale land probe along the eastern flank (Baltics or Poland most often mentioned) The goal would be to force NATO into the gray zone; where attribution is murky, the response has to be proportional, and every one of the 32 members has to decide how hard to push back. What’s driving the shift? Mounting pressure inside Russia, Ukrainian strikes deeper into Russian territory, and slower-than-expected battlefield gains. Officials now assess that limited escalation could start looking more attractive to the Kremlin, not less. The real test is political will: Can the alliance stay unified when Moscow deliberately makes the line between “aggression” and “war” hard to define? This is the kind of pressure point that could reshape European security for years. Source: The President's Daily Brief YT / Writer: Val

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103,527 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇷🇺🇪🇺 U.S. Intel Warns Putin Could Test NATO With A Limited Attack New U.S. intelligence warns that Vladimir Putin could attempt a limited attack against a NATO member as early as this autumn, with the risk window extending through 2029. Scenarios range from cyberattacks and sabotage to a small scale military incursion on NATO’s eastern flank. Poland and the Baltic states are reportedly viewed as the most likely targets in related assessments, but no specific country has been officially identified by the U.S. The goal could be to test NATO’s unity and see whether Washington and European allies would actually respond under Article 5. A full scale invasion is NOT what the assessment predicts. The concern is a limited operation designed to stay below the threshold of a major war. If Putin crosses NATO’s border, the world could face its most dangerous military crisis in Europe since the Cold War. 👀

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🇺🇸🇱🇻 A small, limited attack on Latvia could be enough to shatter the entire alliance. Fmr. Gen. U.S. Army Ben Hodges just explained how Russia breaks NATO without a full war. "You launch a limited attack, not something on the scale of what they did to Ukraine, but an attack into Latvia or Lithuania, for example, and then stop and say, do you really want to get into a nuclear war over Daugavpils in Latvia?" If we don't respond, Article Five is dead. Ben Hodges

🇺🇸🇱🇻 A small, limited attack on Latvia could be enough to shatter the entire alliance. Fmr. Gen. U.S. Army Ben Hodges just explained how Russia breaks NATO without a full war. "You launch a limited attack, not something on the scale of what they did to Ukraine, but an attack into Latvia or Lithuania, for example, and then stop and say, do you really want to get into a nuclear war over Daugavpils in Latvia?" If we don't respond, Article Five is dead. Ben Hodges

Mario Nawfal

62,598 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

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Fmr CIA agent Marc Polymeropoulos: "If Trump had actually won the election, think about — Ukraine would be part of Russia, the NATO alliance would be shattered." "With Biden’s trip to Europe, he is welcomed as not only, frankly, the savior of Ukraine, but also the savior of Europe"

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562,728 просмотров • 3 лет назад

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The Times Of India

45,511 просмотров • 6 дней назад

French President Macron on NATO: There is now a doubt on Article 5 — not put on the table by the Europeans, but by the US president — and it’s clearly de facto weakening the strength of the alliance.

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Clash Report

38,330 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

Russia is constantly probing and testing us. NATO has always been a defensive alliance – but we are ready to defend every inch of NATO territory if Russia attacks.

Russia is constantly probing and testing us. NATO has always been a defensive alliance – but we are ready to defend every inch of NATO territory if Russia attacks.

Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧

303,745 просмотров • 23 дней назад

Lavrov said one of the goals of the war against Ukraine is “to keep NATO away from our borders” In 2022, shortly after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Finland applied to join NATO. In 2023, it joined the alliance, adding 1,340 km to Russia’s NATO border. Russia had no objection.

Lavrov said one of the goals of the war against Ukraine is “to keep NATO away from our borders” In 2022, shortly after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Finland applied to join NATO. In 2023, it joined the alliance, adding 1,340 km to Russia’s NATO border. Russia had no objection.

Visegrád 24

65,445 просмотров • 18 дней назад

I would like to remind you of several interesting factors about how Putin and Russia’s rhetoric about NATO has changed, as well as about Ukraine’s accession to NATO. In 2002, in Rome, when asked by a journalist about how Ukraine’s accession to NATO would affect relations between Russia and Ukraine, Putin replied that Ukraine is a sovereign state. And she herself has the right to freely choose her future, including the future of her security. And that Russia is not against if Ukraine and the Alliance decide that Ukraine will become a member of NATO. Now these liars are using NATO expansion as one of the reasons for their invasion. And this despite the fact that Ukraine has never been a member of this military bloc, and there were no plans to admit it there in the near future. And we all understand that all these reasons for the invasion are manipulation and lies in order to justify their aggression, terror and attempt to occupy Ukraine. Regarding the second part of the video, Putin says that NATO expansion is unacceptable in 2022. Some time later, when he is asked about Finland and Sweden joining NATO. He says he doesn't mind. NATO is the Defense Alliance. Even Article 5 of NATO implies collective security in the event of an attack on one of the Alliance countries. But this in no way obliges all NATO members to fight for a country that is itself an aggressor. Even if he is a member of NATO. Therefore, Putin’s manipulations that if Ukraine had joined NATO, it would have attacked Russia and started a war between NATO and Russia is a complete lie. Article 5 does not oblige one to fight for a side that itself is the aggressor. But only to protect a NATO member from attack and invasion by other countries. Against the backdrop of all this, all these fairy tales and Russian propaganda that Ukraine wanted to attack Russia is a lie. (I remind you that until 2014 Ukraine was not a member of NATO and there were no plans to admit it there, at least in the near future). And if Ukraine wanted to attack, why did it give up nuclear weapons? Why didn’t she carry out a massive militarization of the country, but, on the contrary, reduced the army? Why now, when the war is already going on, does Ukraine not enter Russian territory with its troops? After all, propaganda says that it was Ukraine that wanted to attack.

I would like to remind you of several interesting factors about how Putin and Russia’s rhetoric about NATO has changed, as well as about Ukraine’s accession to NATO. In 2002, in Rome, when asked by a journalist about how Ukraine’s accession to NATO would affect relations between Russia and Ukraine, Putin replied that Ukraine is a sovereign state. And she herself has the right to freely choose her future, including the future of her security. And that Russia is not against if Ukraine and the Alliance decide that Ukraine will become a member of NATO. Now these liars are using NATO expansion as one of the reasons for their invasion. And this despite the fact that Ukraine has never been a member of this military bloc, and there were no plans to admit it there in the near future. And we all understand that all these reasons for the invasion are manipulation and lies in order to justify their aggression, terror and attempt to occupy Ukraine. Regarding the second part of the video, Putin says that NATO expansion is unacceptable in 2022. Some time later, when he is asked about Finland and Sweden joining NATO. He says he doesn't mind. NATO is the Defense Alliance. Even Article 5 of NATO implies collective security in the event of an attack on one of the Alliance countries. But this in no way obliges all NATO members to fight for a country that is itself an aggressor. Even if he is a member of NATO. Therefore, Putin’s manipulations that if Ukraine had joined NATO, it would have attacked Russia and started a war between NATO and Russia is a complete lie. Article 5 does not oblige one to fight for a side that itself is the aggressor. But only to protect a NATO member from attack and invasion by other countries. Against the backdrop of all this, all these fairy tales and Russian propaganda that Ukraine wanted to attack Russia is a lie. (I remind you that until 2014 Ukraine was not a member of NATO and there were no plans to admit it there, at least in the near future). And if Ukraine wanted to attack, why did it give up nuclear weapons? Why didn’t she carry out a massive militarization of the country, but, on the contrary, reduced the army? Why now, when the war is already going on, does Ukraine not enter Russian territory with its troops? After all, propaganda says that it was Ukraine that wanted to attack.

Igor Kyivskyi

226,429 просмотров • 2 лет назад

Russia claims #Ukraine carried out a missile strike on Okhmatdyt Children’s Hospital to stir support ahead of the NATO summit. The reality is #Russia has been attacking civilians consistently since the first day of its full-scale invasion.

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Foreign Policy CAN

20,377 просмотров • 2 лет назад

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The Bulwark

18,850 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

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American lawmakers: If Russia launches a nuclear strike on Ukraine, it will go to war with NATO. U.S. Senators Lindsey Graham, Republican, and Richard Blumenthal, Democrat, registered a draft bipartisan resolution in the Senate declaring Russia's use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine or the bombing of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant as an attack on NATO, requiring the application of Article 5 of the alliance.

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Kellogg: NATO may need to be redrawn with countries willing to fight, like Japan, Australia, Germany, Poland, and Ukraine, which has proven to be a good ally. Under Article 13, the US could leave NATO with one year’s notice if the alliance no longer works. 1/

Tymofiy Mylovanov

265,260 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад