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.Michael Weiss and Marc Polymeropoulos explain why Russia doesn’t need a full-scale invasion of NATO territory to test the alliance, and how even a limited strike could be designed to see whether the alliance responds when Article 5 is put on the line.

The Bulwark

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10,905 次观看 • 7 天前 •via X (Twitter)

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5 条评论

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The Bulwark7 天前

@Mpolymer Watch the full episode of Bulwark Takes:

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dVN7 天前

@michaeldweiss @Mpolymer Weisser hasn't made a @ForeignOffPod in so long that it has actually become foreign.

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Effina7 天前

@michaeldweiss @Mpolymer Trump is the only leader of a NATO country that said he wouldn’t commit to defending NATO allies under Article 5; even though every ally in NATO came to the defence of the U.S. right after the Sept 11 terrorist attack.

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stephen albert7 天前

@michaeldweiss @Mpolymer How can NATO respond when Trump is pro-Putin?

Vincent Cogliano Jr 的头像

Vincent Cogliano Jr7 天前

@michaeldweiss @Mpolymer Once again, a couple of dopes trying to make something out of nothing. If Russia could have taken over Ukraine their combined armies could have posed a real threat to NATO. But now, are you kidding, Russia is a paper tiger. No threat to Poland or anyone. Get real fools.

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'Putin’s new super drones are a serious threat to Nato' Read David Blair's full analysis on why 'A Geran-5 strike within Poland’s borders would be a major test for the strength of the alliance' 👇

'Putin’s new super drones are a serious threat to Nato' Read David Blair's full analysis on why 'A Geran-5 strike within Poland’s borders would be a major test for the strength of the alliance' 👇

The Telegraph

69,456 次观看 • 13 天前

🇺🇸🇷🇺 U.S. intelligence has changed its assessment on Putin. For years the working assumption was that Russia was too bogged down in Ukraine to risk a direct confrontation with NATO. That view is now being revised. New reports detailed by U.S. officials warn that Putin could test the alliance with a limited or hybrid operation, potentially as soon as this fall, and out to 2029. The scenarios on the table are deliberately designed to stay below the threshold of a clear Article 5 trigger: - Major cyberattacks - Sabotage of critical infrastructure - Unmarked or deniable forces - A small-scale land probe along the eastern flank (Baltics or Poland most often mentioned) The goal would be to force NATO into the gray zone; where attribution is murky, the response has to be proportional, and every one of the 32 members has to decide how hard to push back. What’s driving the shift? Mounting pressure inside Russia, Ukrainian strikes deeper into Russian territory, and slower-than-expected battlefield gains. Officials now assess that limited escalation could start looking more attractive to the Kremlin, not less. The real test is political will: Can the alliance stay unified when Moscow deliberately makes the line between “aggression” and “war” hard to define? This is the kind of pressure point that could reshape European security for years. Source: The President's Daily Brief YT / Writer: Val

🇺🇸🇷🇺 U.S. intelligence has changed its assessment on Putin. For years the working assumption was that Russia was too bogged down in Ukraine to risk a direct confrontation with NATO. That view is now being revised. New reports detailed by U.S. officials warn that Putin could test the alliance with a limited or hybrid operation, potentially as soon as this fall, and out to 2029. The scenarios on the table are deliberately designed to stay below the threshold of a clear Article 5 trigger: - Major cyberattacks - Sabotage of critical infrastructure - Unmarked or deniable forces - A small-scale land probe along the eastern flank (Baltics or Poland most often mentioned) The goal would be to force NATO into the gray zone; where attribution is murky, the response has to be proportional, and every one of the 32 members has to decide how hard to push back. What’s driving the shift? Mounting pressure inside Russia, Ukrainian strikes deeper into Russian territory, and slower-than-expected battlefield gains. Officials now assess that limited escalation could start looking more attractive to the Kremlin, not less. The real test is political will: Can the alliance stay unified when Moscow deliberately makes the line between “aggression” and “war” hard to define? This is the kind of pressure point that could reshape European security for years. Source: The President's Daily Brief YT / Writer: Val

Mario Nawfal

103,527 次观看 • 1 个月前

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇷🇺🇪🇺 U.S. Intel Warns Putin Could Test NATO With A Limited Attack New U.S. intelligence warns that Vladimir Putin could attempt a limited attack against a NATO member as early as this autumn, with the risk window extending through 2029. Scenarios range from cyberattacks and sabotage to a small scale military incursion on NATO’s eastern flank. Poland and the Baltic states are reportedly viewed as the most likely targets in related assessments, but no specific country has been officially identified by the U.S. The goal could be to test NATO’s unity and see whether Washington and European allies would actually respond under Article 5. A full scale invasion is NOT what the assessment predicts. The concern is a limited operation designed to stay below the threshold of a major war. If Putin crosses NATO’s border, the world could face its most dangerous military crisis in Europe since the Cold War. 👀

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇷🇺🇪🇺 U.S. Intel Warns Putin Could Test NATO With A Limited Attack New U.S. intelligence warns that Vladimir Putin could attempt a limited attack against a NATO member as early as this autumn, with the risk window extending through 2029. Scenarios range from cyberattacks and sabotage to a small scale military incursion on NATO’s eastern flank. Poland and the Baltic states are reportedly viewed as the most likely targets in related assessments, but no specific country has been officially identified by the U.S. The goal could be to test NATO’s unity and see whether Washington and European allies would actually respond under Article 5. A full scale invasion is NOT what the assessment predicts. The concern is a limited operation designed to stay below the threshold of a major war. If Putin crosses NATO’s border, the world could face its most dangerous military crisis in Europe since the Cold War. 👀

War Radar

11,518 次观看 • 1 个月前

🇺🇸🇱🇻 A small, limited attack on Latvia could be enough to shatter the entire alliance. Fmr. Gen. U.S. Army Ben Hodges just explained how Russia breaks NATO without a full war. "You launch a limited attack, not something on the scale of what they did to Ukraine, but an attack into Latvia or Lithuania, for example, and then stop and say, do you really want to get into a nuclear war over Daugavpils in Latvia?" If we don't respond, Article Five is dead. Ben Hodges

🇺🇸🇱🇻 A small, limited attack on Latvia could be enough to shatter the entire alliance. Fmr. Gen. U.S. Army Ben Hodges just explained how Russia breaks NATO without a full war. "You launch a limited attack, not something on the scale of what they did to Ukraine, but an attack into Latvia or Lithuania, for example, and then stop and say, do you really want to get into a nuclear war over Daugavpils in Latvia?" If we don't respond, Article Five is dead. Ben Hodges

Mario Nawfal

62,598 次观看 • 3 个月前

BREAKING | 🇨🇿🇺🇸🇷🇺‼️‼️ Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš has reportedly met with representatives of the CIA and Czech intelligence services for a high-level briefing on potential threats posed by Russia to Europe. Among the scenarios presented was a possible limited Russian incursion into the Baltic states, potentially conducted under a false flag and designed to test NATO’s unity and collective response. Separately, Babiš has publicly reaffirmed that Czechia would honor NATO’s collective-defense commitments in the event of an attack on a Baltic ally. The scenario is particularly dangerous because a deliberately limited and disguised operation could be intended to create uncertainty over attribution and force NATO governments to make difficult decisions under intense time pressure. In such a situation, Moscow would not necessarily need a large-scale invasion to test whether the Alliance can maintain a unified response. See the latest updates with us: Visioner

BREAKING | 🇨🇿🇺🇸🇷🇺‼️‼️ Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš has reportedly met with representatives of the CIA and Czech intelligence services for a high-level briefing on potential threats posed by Russia to Europe. Among the scenarios presented was a possible limited Russian incursion into the Baltic states, potentially conducted under a false flag and designed to test NATO’s unity and collective response. Separately, Babiš has publicly reaffirmed that Czechia would honor NATO’s collective-defense commitments in the event of an attack on a Baltic ally. The scenario is particularly dangerous because a deliberately limited and disguised operation could be intended to create uncertainty over attribution and force NATO governments to make difficult decisions under intense time pressure. In such a situation, Moscow would not necessarily need a large-scale invasion to test whether the Alliance can maintain a unified response. See the latest updates with us: Visioner

Visioner

24,707 次观看 • 4 天前

"I think the big question on this is why now?...What in the world is Ratcliffe doing there?" Michael Weiss and Marc Polymeropoulos discuss CIA Director John Ratcliffe making a rare, unannounced visit to Moscow as reports emerge that Russia may be planning something provocative.

"I think the big question on this is why now?...What in the world is Ratcliffe doing there?" Michael Weiss and Marc Polymeropoulos discuss CIA Director John Ratcliffe making a rare, unannounced visit to Moscow as reports emerge that Russia may be planning something provocative.

The Bulwark

24,812 次观看 • 1 个月前

BIG | 🇷🇺🇪🇺‼️‼️ NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, General Alexus Grynkewich, has delivered a direct warning to Vladimir Putin, saying the Alliance should remain “calm and confident” because it has the capabilities needed to deal with any threat from Russia. Grynkewich said a limited Russian attack on NATO territory remains unlikely, but acknowledged that such a scenario cannot be completely ruled out. Asked whether Putin might attempt to test the Alliance, the NATO commander responded bluntly: “He better not try it on my watch.” The message combines reassurance with deterrence. NATO’s top military commander is not presenting a limited Russian attack as the most likely scenario, but he is making clear that the Alliance is actively considering the possibility and intends to demonstrate confidence in its ability to defend its territory. See the latest updates with us: Visioner

BIG | 🇷🇺🇪🇺‼️‼️ NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, General Alexus Grynkewich, has delivered a direct warning to Vladimir Putin, saying the Alliance should remain “calm and confident” because it has the capabilities needed to deal with any threat from Russia. Grynkewich said a limited Russian attack on NATO territory remains unlikely, but acknowledged that such a scenario cannot be completely ruled out. Asked whether Putin might attempt to test the Alliance, the NATO commander responded bluntly: “He better not try it on my watch.” The message combines reassurance with deterrence. NATO’s top military commander is not presenting a limited Russian attack as the most likely scenario, but he is making clear that the Alliance is actively considering the possibility and intends to demonstrate confidence in its ability to defend its territory. See the latest updates with us: Visioner

Visioner

36,219 次观看 • 9 天前

BIG | 🇺🇸🇩🇪🇷🇺‼️‼️ Trump is downplaying the risk of a direct Russian attack on NATO even as Germany formally attributes the Leipzig/Halle drone operation to Moscow, exposing a widening gap between Washington’s political messaging and Europe’s growing concern over Russian hybrid warfare. Asked whether the explosive-laden drone incident at a German airport amounted to an attack on NATO territory, Trump repeated his view that Putin is not planning to attack NATO. He made a similar statement last week. Germany, however, has already blamed Russia for the August 4 Leipzig/Halle operation, while NATO officials acknowledge that Russian hybrid activity across Europe is intensifying even though they currently see no imminent conventional attack on the Alliance. The distinction matters: Putin may not be preparing a conventional invasion of NATO, but Russia is already testing the Alliance below that threshold through sabotage, drones and other hybrid operations. Trump is right that there is no current evidence of an imminent full-scale attack, but treating that as reassurance risks missing the actual problem Europe is facing now. Washington and European allies need a clearer collective response to repeated Russian hostile activity before Moscow concludes that operating below Article 5 carries little meaningful cost. See the latest updates with us: Visioner

BIG | 🇺🇸🇩🇪🇷🇺‼️‼️ Trump is downplaying the risk of a direct Russian attack on NATO even as Germany formally attributes the Leipzig/Halle drone operation to Moscow, exposing a widening gap between Washington’s political messaging and Europe’s growing concern over Russian hybrid warfare. Asked whether the explosive-laden drone incident at a German airport amounted to an attack on NATO territory, Trump repeated his view that Putin is not planning to attack NATO. He made a similar statement last week. Germany, however, has already blamed Russia for the August 4 Leipzig/Halle operation, while NATO officials acknowledge that Russian hybrid activity across Europe is intensifying even though they currently see no imminent conventional attack on the Alliance. The distinction matters: Putin may not be preparing a conventional invasion of NATO, but Russia is already testing the Alliance below that threshold through sabotage, drones and other hybrid operations. Trump is right that there is no current evidence of an imminent full-scale attack, but treating that as reassurance risks missing the actual problem Europe is facing now. Washington and European allies need a clearer collective response to repeated Russian hostile activity before Moscow concludes that operating below Article 5 carries little meaningful cost. See the latest updates with us: Visioner

Visioner

26,777 次观看 • 29 天前

BREAKING | 🇨🇿🇪🇺🇷🇺‼️‼️ Czech intelligence chief Michal Koudelka warns that Russia could attempt a limited incursion into NATO territory bordering Russia, with such a scenario potentially developing within “months, not years.” Koudelka said Moscow’s possible actions could include a limited territorial incursion, false-flag provocations and a large-scale influence campaign, while pointing to the growing use of drones as another element of the threat. Asked directly whether a small-scale Russian incursion into NATO territory was possible, he replied: “It is possible,” while stressing that extensive efforts are underway to prevent it. The warning adds to a rapidly growing pattern across Europe, where intelligence and political leaders are increasingly preparing for the possibility that Russia could move beyond sabotage and other hybrid operations toward more dangerous actions designed to test NATO’s response without immediately triggering a full-scale war. See the latest updates with us: Visioner

BREAKING | 🇨🇿🇪🇺🇷🇺‼️‼️ Czech intelligence chief Michal Koudelka warns that Russia could attempt a limited incursion into NATO territory bordering Russia, with such a scenario potentially developing within “months, not years.” Koudelka said Moscow’s possible actions could include a limited territorial incursion, false-flag provocations and a large-scale influence campaign, while pointing to the growing use of drones as another element of the threat. Asked directly whether a small-scale Russian incursion into NATO territory was possible, he replied: “It is possible,” while stressing that extensive efforts are underway to prevent it. The warning adds to a rapidly growing pattern across Europe, where intelligence and political leaders are increasingly preparing for the possibility that Russia could move beyond sabotage and other hybrid operations toward more dangerous actions designed to test NATO’s response without immediately triggering a full-scale war. See the latest updates with us: Visioner

Visioner

151,485 次观看 • 13 天前

Fmr CIA agent Marc Polymeropoulos: "If Trump had actually won the election, think about — Ukraine would be part of Russia, the NATO alliance would be shattered." "With Biden’s trip to Europe, he is welcomed as not only, frankly, the savior of Ukraine, but also the savior of Europe"

Fmr CIA agent Marc Polymeropoulos: "If Trump had actually won the election, think about — Ukraine would be part of Russia, the NATO alliance would be shattered." "With Biden’s trip to Europe, he is welcomed as not only, frankly, the savior of Ukraine, but also the savior of Europe"

Tom Elliott

562,728 次观看 • 3 年前

Putin’s “little green men” could be the next threat facing NATO. Intelligence experts fear Russia could revive the Crimea playbook with a covert incursion into Estonia, using unmarked troops, staged incidents and deniable attacks to test the alliance’s response. The focus is increasingly on Narva, Estonia’s Russian-speaking border city, where fears of a manufactured crisis are growing. Could Moscow use a limited operation to test NATO’s Article 5 without triggering an immediate full-scale war? This video examines the reported warning from Washington, Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics, the Narva scenario, the Suwalki Gap, NATO’s Baltic defenses and the risks of a direct Russia-NATO confrontation. #Putin #NATO #Russia #Ukraine #Crimea #Estonia #Moscow #Washington #Europe #worldnews Aditi Singh

Putin’s “little green men” could be the next threat facing NATO. Intelligence experts fear Russia could revive the Crimea playbook with a covert incursion into Estonia, using unmarked troops, staged incidents and deniable attacks to test the alliance’s response. The focus is increasingly on Narva, Estonia’s Russian-speaking border city, where fears of a manufactured crisis are growing. Could Moscow use a limited operation to test NATO’s Article 5 without triggering an immediate full-scale war? This video examines the reported warning from Washington, Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics, the Narva scenario, the Suwalki Gap, NATO’s Baltic defenses and the risks of a direct Russia-NATO confrontation. #Putin #NATO #Russia #Ukraine #Crimea #Estonia #Moscow #Washington #Europe #worldnews Aditi Singh

The Times Of India

45,511 次观看 • 6 天前

French President Macron on NATO: There is now a doubt on Article 5 — not put on the table by the Europeans, but by the US president — and it’s clearly de facto weakening the strength of the alliance.

French President Macron on NATO: There is now a doubt on Article 5 — not put on the table by the Europeans, but by the US president — and it’s clearly de facto weakening the strength of the alliance.

Clash Report

38,330 次观看 • 5 个月前

Russia is constantly probing and testing us. NATO has always been a defensive alliance – but we are ready to defend every inch of NATO territory if Russia attacks.

Russia is constantly probing and testing us. NATO has always been a defensive alliance – but we are ready to defend every inch of NATO territory if Russia attacks.

Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧

303,745 次观看 • 23 天前

Lavrov said one of the goals of the war against Ukraine is “to keep NATO away from our borders” In 2022, shortly after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Finland applied to join NATO. In 2023, it joined the alliance, adding 1,340 km to Russia’s NATO border. Russia had no objection.

Lavrov said one of the goals of the war against Ukraine is “to keep NATO away from our borders” In 2022, shortly after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Finland applied to join NATO. In 2023, it joined the alliance, adding 1,340 km to Russia’s NATO border. Russia had no objection.

Visegrád 24

65,445 次观看 • 18 天前

I would like to remind you of several interesting factors about how Putin and Russia’s rhetoric about NATO has changed, as well as about Ukraine’s accession to NATO. In 2002, in Rome, when asked by a journalist about how Ukraine’s accession to NATO would affect relations between Russia and Ukraine, Putin replied that Ukraine is a sovereign state. And she herself has the right to freely choose her future, including the future of her security. And that Russia is not against if Ukraine and the Alliance decide that Ukraine will become a member of NATO. Now these liars are using NATO expansion as one of the reasons for their invasion. And this despite the fact that Ukraine has never been a member of this military bloc, and there were no plans to admit it there in the near future. And we all understand that all these reasons for the invasion are manipulation and lies in order to justify their aggression, terror and attempt to occupy Ukraine. Regarding the second part of the video, Putin says that NATO expansion is unacceptable in 2022. Some time later, when he is asked about Finland and Sweden joining NATO. He says he doesn't mind. NATO is the Defense Alliance. Even Article 5 of NATO implies collective security in the event of an attack on one of the Alliance countries. But this in no way obliges all NATO members to fight for a country that is itself an aggressor. Even if he is a member of NATO. Therefore, Putin’s manipulations that if Ukraine had joined NATO, it would have attacked Russia and started a war between NATO and Russia is a complete lie. Article 5 does not oblige one to fight for a side that itself is the aggressor. But only to protect a NATO member from attack and invasion by other countries. Against the backdrop of all this, all these fairy tales and Russian propaganda that Ukraine wanted to attack Russia is a lie. (I remind you that until 2014 Ukraine was not a member of NATO and there were no plans to admit it there, at least in the near future). And if Ukraine wanted to attack, why did it give up nuclear weapons? Why didn’t she carry out a massive militarization of the country, but, on the contrary, reduced the army? Why now, when the war is already going on, does Ukraine not enter Russian territory with its troops? After all, propaganda says that it was Ukraine that wanted to attack.

I would like to remind you of several interesting factors about how Putin and Russia’s rhetoric about NATO has changed, as well as about Ukraine’s accession to NATO. In 2002, in Rome, when asked by a journalist about how Ukraine’s accession to NATO would affect relations between Russia and Ukraine, Putin replied that Ukraine is a sovereign state. And she herself has the right to freely choose her future, including the future of her security. And that Russia is not against if Ukraine and the Alliance decide that Ukraine will become a member of NATO. Now these liars are using NATO expansion as one of the reasons for their invasion. And this despite the fact that Ukraine has never been a member of this military bloc, and there were no plans to admit it there in the near future. And we all understand that all these reasons for the invasion are manipulation and lies in order to justify their aggression, terror and attempt to occupy Ukraine. Regarding the second part of the video, Putin says that NATO expansion is unacceptable in 2022. Some time later, when he is asked about Finland and Sweden joining NATO. He says he doesn't mind. NATO is the Defense Alliance. Even Article 5 of NATO implies collective security in the event of an attack on one of the Alliance countries. But this in no way obliges all NATO members to fight for a country that is itself an aggressor. Even if he is a member of NATO. Therefore, Putin’s manipulations that if Ukraine had joined NATO, it would have attacked Russia and started a war between NATO and Russia is a complete lie. Article 5 does not oblige one to fight for a side that itself is the aggressor. But only to protect a NATO member from attack and invasion by other countries. Against the backdrop of all this, all these fairy tales and Russian propaganda that Ukraine wanted to attack Russia is a lie. (I remind you that until 2014 Ukraine was not a member of NATO and there were no plans to admit it there, at least in the near future). And if Ukraine wanted to attack, why did it give up nuclear weapons? Why didn’t she carry out a massive militarization of the country, but, on the contrary, reduced the army? Why now, when the war is already going on, does Ukraine not enter Russian territory with its troops? After all, propaganda says that it was Ukraine that wanted to attack.

Igor Kyivskyi

226,429 次观看 • 2 年前

Russia claims #Ukraine carried out a missile strike on Okhmatdyt Children’s Hospital to stir support ahead of the NATO summit. The reality is #Russia has been attacking civilians consistently since the first day of its full-scale invasion.

Russia claims #Ukraine carried out a missile strike on Okhmatdyt Children’s Hospital to stir support ahead of the NATO summit. The reality is #Russia has been attacking civilians consistently since the first day of its full-scale invasion.

Foreign Policy CAN

20,377 次观看 • 2 年前

.Marc Polymeropoulos and Michael Weiss on the unanswered questions surrounding the threat to Air Force One, and why everyone else on the plane appears to have been left in the dark: “Why was it that only he was somehow protected and, you know, ferried to safety?”

.Marc Polymeropoulos and Michael Weiss on the unanswered questions surrounding the threat to Air Force One, and why everyone else on the plane appears to have been left in the dark: “Why was it that only he was somehow protected and, you know, ferried to safety?”

The Bulwark

18,850 次观看 • 1 个月前

American lawmakers: If Russia launches a nuclear strike on Ukraine, it will go to war with NATO. U.S. Senators Lindsey Graham, Republican, and Richard Blumenthal, Democrat, registered a draft bipartisan resolution in the Senate declaring Russia's use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine or the bombing of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant as an attack on NATO, requiring the application of Article 5 of the alliance.

American lawmakers: If Russia launches a nuclear strike on Ukraine, it will go to war with NATO. U.S. Senators Lindsey Graham, Republican, and Richard Blumenthal, Democrat, registered a draft bipartisan resolution in the Senate declaring Russia's use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine or the bombing of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant as an attack on NATO, requiring the application of Article 5 of the alliance.

𝕊𝕡𝕣𝕚𝕟𝕥𝕖𝕣 𝕻𝕣𝕖𝕤𝕤

1,523,603 次观看 • 3 年前

Kellogg: NATO may need to be redrawn with countries willing to fight, like Japan, Australia, Germany, Poland, and Ukraine, which has proven to be a good ally. Under Article 13, the US could leave NATO with one year’s notice if the alliance no longer works. 1/

Kellogg: NATO may need to be redrawn with countries willing to fight, like Japan, Australia, Germany, Poland, and Ukraine, which has proven to be a good ally. Under Article 13, the US could leave NATO with one year’s notice if the alliance no longer works. 1/

Tymofiy Mylovanov

265,260 次观看 • 6 个月前