Загрузка видео...

Не удалось загрузить видео

На главную

Microsoft just banned its own engineers from using AI. The tool was literally costing MORE than the humans it was supposed to replace. They lied to you about AI adoption and now the whole narrative is blowing up: Microsoft gave thousands of engineers access to Claude Code six months...

2,980,408 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

Комментарии: 33

Фото профиля Lifelong_Learner
Lifelong_Learner5 месяцев назад

I have worked with Claude . . . It is good for some things. Others . . . not so good. It changes code in a bunch of areas across a bunch of routines . . . and gets out of control really quickly . . . which of course eats up the token budget very fast. And because it can make errors . . . you are now debugging something that you did not write and may not understand why it made the changes it did. You really have to know when and how to use it . . . When you prompt it, you must be very, very specific with lots of constraining qualifiers . . . otherwise it assumes a bunch of things on its own and runs amuck changing things everywhere and it gets out of control. So, basically you are exchanging one skill for another . . . instead of learning to code . . . you now need to learn how to write effective prompts.

Фото профиля Muh Proxy
Muh Proxy5 месяцев назад

Token maxxing used to be a thing in the good ole days..

Фото профиля ~Belle Rose~
~Belle Rose~5 месяцев назад

Yep , Mo Bitar covered this topis 4 days ago. I think it's really funny they bought into the PR - AI was ALWAYS just a product, no diff imo than a calculator , good for certain functions. The term AI is hype, it's not real intelligence.

Фото профиля Sean McClure
Sean McClure5 месяцев назад

No. Stop telling some people what they want to hear for clicks. Microsoft did not "ban employees from using AI" It is a much narrower and more strategic decision. They decided to reduce Claude Code licenses and push teams toward their own tooling, especially GitHub Copilot CLI....obviously. Use Microsoft’s in-house AI stack instead of paying for large-scale external Claude subscriptions. Your post is for idiots. People who cannot think for themselves see this as a collapse of AI adoption overall, and implying Microsoft concluded AI was economically useless. Token-priced coding agents at massive enterprise scale can become extremely expensive. Yes. So say that. Nonsense accounts speaking simple language to simple folk makes this platform annoying.

Фото профиля 🇺🇸 Stallion 🇮🇹
🇺🇸 Stallion 🇮🇹5 месяцев назад

@SF_Conservative Indian CEOs shocked to find out their H-1Bs they hired for cheap have to rely on AI esclusively to write their code. What happens when nobody knows how to write code except the much smaller pool of AI developers and there is little training data to learn from?

Фото профиля Innocent Bystander
Innocent Bystander5 месяцев назад

I stand by my Prediction that Most of the planned Data Centers will NEVER be built. For one thing the US does not have the electricity and water for it. And secondly, Oil prices are never going to drop causing a huge reduction in uncertain to begin with profitability.

Фото профиля _Unapologetic7 𝕏
_Unapologetic7 𝕏5 месяцев назад

Let the bubble BURST & all these soulless greedy corporations that did mass layoffs will be forced to hire humans again or perish!

Фото профиля Fiodar Sazanavets 🇺🇦
Fiodar Sazanavets 🇺🇦5 месяцев назад

It banned its employees from using a very specific agentic harness tool (i.e., Claude), not from using AI per se. Microsoft literally has Copilot integrated in everything you have installed on your machine. I worked there recently. You cannot not use AI.

Фото профиля Nas
Nas5 месяцев назад

They basically gave Claude Code subscriptions to lackluster Indian coders. LOL what did they think was going to happen? Most Foreign Indians scammed their way into America. They are NOT capable coders. So they outsourced ALL of their thinking/work to Claude. #EndH1B

Фото профиля Book Publishing Coach
Book Publishing Coach5 месяцев назад

Decades ago, in the 1990s, when I was a service engineer, we had a customer called DEC (Digital Equipment Corporation) in Bangalore who had installed our PABX. After installing, they asked my team to enable national/international calls on every phone on every desk. I said it was a dumb idea, as everyone will misuse it. But they scoffed and said it was a standard in their US offices. So we enabled. Within two months, they called us to disable the STD/ISD on every phone and give it only to senior managers - 😇

Фото профиля Phairy Megan
Phairy Megan5 месяцев назад

@Nobunko1 That’s a man

Фото профиля Crepe Supreme
Crepe Supreme5 месяцев назад

"More than humans" doesn't survive the math. 100k MSFT engineers cost $30 to 40 billion fully loaded. Claude Code heavy-use runs ~$30/dev/day, ~$660 million annually. ~2% of labor. The cancellation is product substitution, MSFT already owns Copilot.

Фото профиля Ashish
Ashish5 месяцев назад

It's a temporary problem. Compounded by the lack of proper governing and budgeting overlay tools I remember in early days of internet, a poplar term was WWW - World Wide Wait, because slow speed was a big hindrance. Got solved rapidly, now we watch live streaming videos

Фото профиля failzero
failzero5 месяцев назад

"Uh oh" That "baked in" Ai build out capex, of $3-$5 TRILLION over the next 5 years, might have just taken a giant dump on the floor A whole lotta downside exposure, just got real "Colossal if Confirmed"

Фото профиля 𝗖𝗔𝗧𝗛𝗘𝗥𝗜𝗡𝗘 🟦
𝗖𝗔𝗧𝗛𝗘𝗥𝗜𝗡𝗘 🟦5 месяцев назад

"AI may cost more than human's." But investors knew that, so I don't get it.

Фото профиля LivinPeacefulSC
LivinPeacefulSC5 месяцев назад

@TwinsBus Lowe’s requires employees to use ChatGPT for all emails. I guess because putting together complete thoughts in sentences is now obsolete.

Фото профиля PMaxTV
PMaxTV5 месяцев назад

Source for this? Haven't found corroborating evidence. Only that Microsoft told engineers drop Claude, use their own GitHub Copilot CLI. TCO will fall dramatically once AI scaled, moved to space also newer technologies lowering heat/water needs well and increased compute power.

Фото профиля Quick AI
Quick AI5 месяцев назад

Mismanagement of models is likely a huge culprit. If everyone in the org thinks their planning/chatting phase requires Opus 4.7, then yes it's going to be astronomical in terms of cost. Anthropic charges 5-6x what OAI does in the open market. If employees had no direction or model specific budgets, it's like giving them all black amex's with a mandate of "go shop." The story's irony isn't lost, but mismanagement of rollout and total lack of concern for budgeting will produce the same result in any company.

Фото профиля Tren Griffin
Tren Griffin5 месяцев назад

This isn't even wrong. MSFT switching from Claude code to GitHub Copilot (both based Opus 4.7 paid for by enterprise API usage) isn't a cut. The payment to Anthropic doesn't change. The decision was made to shift customers to a Microsoft harness (the control layer around an AI model).

Фото профиля Joe F.
Joe F.5 месяцев назад

🧐Grok takes a look into AI costs

Фото профиля Daniel Batten
Daniel Batten5 месяцев назад

The issue isn’t using AI, it’s how you use it. If you incentizinze volume, not quality interventions then yes you will get low productivity gains and high bills This is a story about misaligned incentives and human behavior, not AI

Фото профиля prayag sonar
prayag sonar5 месяцев назад

Why are companies not using local models? They have big servers available, so they can easily deploy large local models and use them unlimitedly. The gap between local and closed models is narrowing for coding and agentic tasks. Companies can easily do 80% coding tasks with local model and 20% with claude for reviewing and improving code.

Фото профиля Ken
Ken5 месяцев назад

And then there is this :

Фото профиля Kah T'choo
Kah T'choo5 месяцев назад

How interesting. The Logistics company I work for have also rolled out use this AI and github etc. Over 6 months ago. No useful results yet and I am sure this is costing tons of money! I am in that program and it is retarded! I eventually get frustrated and just ask Grok in general terms, no company details, how to extract the info I need to make reports. After 10 minutes with Grok on my cell phone next to my company computer, the report query etc is done! Hahahaha! JUST USE @grok

Фото профиля Jack Maxey
Jack Maxey5 месяцев назад

They can't get spell check to work, for God's sake.

Фото профиля Christopher P Wendling
Christopher P Wendling5 месяцев назад

Thing is- if the productivity went up 10x, but the cost only increased 2x- this is simply a budgetting outcome- not an indictment of AI.

Фото профиля Liberty Teeth
Liberty Teeth5 месяцев назад

"Gartner just published a report showing that even though individual token prices will drop 90% by 2030..." Does anyone actually believe that?

Фото профиля Javarevisited
Javarevisited5 месяцев назад

Claude be like: Claude: I fixed all files, they are bug free. Me: Log in button doesn't work. Claude: You're right! Let me check files....Checking... You've hit your limit...

Фото профиля HumanProbably
HumanProbably5 месяцев назад

give it a couple of months and OpenCode (open source version of Claude Code) will run on a $10k server and be as good as current Claude Code is.

Фото профиля Three Line Capital
Three Line Capital5 месяцев назад

While I agree, this take doesn’t need to be anti-ai to work. The angle people might be missing is that token economics and revolutionary technology of AI can both be true. It is a budgeting argument, and budgeting eventually comes for every technology. OSS models can help combat these huge bills but whether a valuation correction comes with the budgeting is yet to be seen.

Фото профиля Shane
Shane5 месяцев назад

Cost will eventually drop significantly IMO. Like any new tech. Many of the AI buildouts will lose lots of money and fail as the low cost tool will win. Likely too much AI data center supply being built. Tech improvements will reduce the need for some of the AI data centers.

Фото профиля Bobby Ward
Bobby Ward5 месяцев назад

And you best believe if they can’t get more data centers? They’re going to all lose their minds and start doing shit illegally obtained access to waterways and such. Do not trust the data centers. And no matter what the fuck they say they’ll offer you!?, once it’s built they’ll say fu

Фото профиля Matthieu De Rupierre
Matthieu De Rupierre5 месяцев назад

@MsLaToshaBrown For now… AI innovation will catch up and become cheaper.

Похожие видео

Elon Musk just pulled off the biggest AI power grab of 2026. Tesla is capping every employee at $200 a week on AI spending starting Monday, July 6. Media's celebrating it as cost control. But what Elon actually built is an expense policy that redirects his own engineering workforce off Claude and onto Grok, while every competitor gets throttled by internal procurement rules. Here's what happened: Tesla spent the last six months pushing engineers to use AI as aggressively as possible. Leadership built an internal platform called Bottle Rocket that gave employees access to Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok, and Cursor. They gamified adoption by ranking engineers on internal leaderboards by how many AI tokens they consumed. The strategy worked. Software engineers started burning THOUSANDS of dollars a week on Claude and Cursor. Then the invoices arrived and Tesla panicked. But they didn't pull the standard cost-control response... The loophole: The $200 weekly cap does not apply to beta products from xAI. Grok is completely exempt from the cap. Anthropic's Claude, OpenAI's GPT, and Google's Gemini all get throttled at the same $200 line. Four Tesla engineers told Electrek that internal usage overwhelmingly favors Claude over Grok. That preference is about to become financially punishing overnight. The genius part: This quarter SpaceX is closing a $60 billion all-stock acquisition of Anysphere, the parent company of Cursor. The moment that deal closes, Cursor's Composer coding model falls under the same Musk-controlled ecosystem, and any Tesla engineer choosing between a capped Claude session and an uncapped Composer session will pay a financial penalty for using the tool they actually prefer. By exempting only his own products from the cap, Elon is using Tesla shareholder money to build market share for xAI without ever having to disclose that is what he is doing. Because on paper, it is cost control. Now zoom out to what this signals for the wider AI narrative: Uber capped employees at $1,500 a month after burning $3.4 billion in four months. Meta introduced spending caps. Amazon and Walmart pushed staff toward cheaper models. Microsoft canceled Claude Code licenses across 100,000 engineers. Every Fortune 500 that pushed heavy AI adoption in 2025 is now rationing it in 2026. Meanwhile Nvidia is trading at a $5 trillion market cap. That entire valuation assumes enterprise AI consumption is about to explode across the economy. But every company actually deploying AI at scale is telling their own engineers to slow down. One of these narratives is lying. Goldman Sachs still forecasts a 24x increase in token consumption by 2030. Gartner says total enterprise AI costs will keep climbing because agents consume exponentially more tokens per task. Jensen Huang keeps repeating that 100 AI agents will work alongside every employee. And now the CEO of the most agentic company on the planet just told his own engineers they cannot spend more than $200 a week on the tools those agents need to run. Retail investors buying Nvidia and Palantir today are betting enterprise AI adoption compounds without limit. The CEOs deploying AI inside those same enterprises are betting the exact opposite, in writing, by internal memo. Thoughts?

Ricardo

189,170 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Jensen Huang just explained why every company cutting engineers over AI is asking the entirely wrong question. Huang: “People say, I don’t need software engineers because apparently coding is going to be automated.” That was the narrative. Here is what Huang actually did. Huang: “I’ve given AIs to every one of my software engineers and hardware engineers and engineers period. 100% of NVIDIA has AI assistants, AI coders, and they’re busier than ever.” Not fewer engineers. Not smaller teams. Busier than ever. That is the line most companies are getting completely wrong right now. They hear “AI can write code” and immediately start cutting headcount. Huang did the opposite. He armed everyone. Huang: “And so the question is, what is the task versus what is the job? No different than a financial analyst; the task is mess around with spreadsheets, but the job is to make financial advice. The job is to help a customer.” Writing code was always the task. It was never the job. The job is architecture. Knowing what to build. Why it matters. How it fits into a system that actually creates value. Code is the execution layer between the idea and the outcome. Nothing more. When you automate that layer, you don’t eliminate the engineer. You eliminate the bottleneck between what they can envision and what they can ship. The companies using AI to cut headcount are optimizing for cost. The companies using AI to multiply output are optimizing for territory. Nvidia chose territory. Every engineer at the most valuable semiconductor company on Earth now operates with an AI assistant. Not a pilot program. Not an experiment. Company-wide. Every function. Every team. And the result is not less work. It is more work. Faster. At a scale that was physically impossible twelve months ago. The companies that understand the difference between eliminating engineers and unleashing them will build what comes next. The ones that don’t will watch their best talent walk out the door to the ones that did.

Dustin

82,879 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

Microsoft just betrayed OpenAI and Anthropic, the two companies it helped build. And it could break the entire AI trade... Here's what happened: Inside Excel and Outlook, two of the most used business apps on Earth, Microsoft has started routing tens of thousands of AI requests every week to its own in-house models instead of OpenAI and Anthropic. Microsoft's own AI chief, Mustafa Suleyman, said himself: "We pay a lot of money to Anthropic, so our goal is to reduce and ultimately ELIMINATE that cost." This is the company that poured $13 billion into OpenAI and effectively created the modern AI industry, and it just decided the most advanced models on the market are NOT worth paying for. And here's the thing... Microsoft is not just ripping out OpenAI everywhere - it is being surgical about it. The hardest and rarest tasks can still go to OpenAI or Anthropic. What Microsoft is taking back is the boring, high-volume work, like the email replies, the thread summaries, and the simple spreadsheet formulas. Why does that matter so much? Because that boring, repetitive work is where the actual money lives. The frontier labs assumed businesses would push BILLIONS of these tiny requests through expensive models forever. That endless river of tokens is the entire reason OpenAI and Anthropic are valued in the hundreds of billions of dollars. Microsoft looked at that river, decided it was massively overpaying, and rerouted it to models it owns outright. So the single biggest customer in the industry just walked off with the most profitable part of the business. And it is not only Microsoft: That same week, CNBC reported that American companies have been escaping to Chinese AI models to dodge rising US prices. Chinese models now handle more than 30% of US companies' AI usage on one major platform, peaking at 46%, up from an average of 11% a year earlier. They cost 60 to 90% less, and on some benchmarks they land within a single point of the best American model. One US startup moved ALL of its AI traffic off Claude and onto China's DeepSeek, and expects to save millions. Meanwhile Meta just admitted it has "excess" AI compute it wants to sell, becoming the first giant to concede it built far too much. Do you see the pattern forming? For two years, the entire AI story rested on one assumption: Every company on Earth would happily pay premium prices for the best model, forever. That assumption literally died in a single week. And the market noticed. More than a trillion dollars has been wiped off AI and chip stocks in a matter of days, as Wall Street finally started asking whether all of this spending will ever pay for itself. What this means for OpenAI and Anthropic: Their models are extraordinary, and it may not matter because their own biggest customers have decided they do not NEED the best model in the world to answer an email, and "good enough" now costs a fraction of the price. When even Microsoft refuses to pay full price for AI, the real question becomes who exactly IS left to pay it. What do you think?

Ricardo

93,654 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

This is the biggest irony in tech history. Microsoft beat revenue estimates. Stock plunged 11%, wiped out $400 BILLION in market cap. Salesforce reported growth. Stock fell 5.6%. ServiceNow beat earnings. Stock crashed 11%. SAP beat projections. Stock dropped 16%. Entire software sector entered bear market territory. Down 22% from peak. These are the companies everyone said would WIN from AI. They spent billions BUYING AI companies. ServiceNow: $7.75 billion for Armis. Salesforce: $8 billion for Informatica. They launched AI products. Built AI workflows. Hired AI teams. And the market said: You're all dead. Because investors just realized something nobody wanted to admit: AI doesn't make software companies stronger. AI makes software companies OBSOLETE. Morgan Stanley: "In an environment of heightened investor skepticism, stable growth falls short of shifting the narrative." Good earnings aren't enough anymore. The market is pricing in a world where AI replaces the software these companies sell. ServiceNow CEO tried defending on the earnings call: "AI needs workflow orchestration. ServiceNow is the gateway to this shift." Market response: 11% crash. Because here's what he didn't say: If AI can write code, automate workflows, and generate apps at a fraction of the cost, why would anyone pay $50,000 per year for enterprise software licenses? The per-seat pricing model that made SaaS companies rich is getting murdered by AI efficiency. One AI agent replaces 10 seats. One prompt replaces months of custom development. One LLM call replaces entire software categories. Klarna already proved it. CEO said they pulled Salesforce out of their stack. Built everything themselves using AI. And that's just the beginning. The software apocalypse hit hardest on companies that INVESTED IN AI: Atlassian: down 12.6% Intuit: down 7.8% HubSpot: down 11.5% Zscaler: down 6.3% Meanwhile, the companies ENABLING AI made money: Nvidia: up Semiconductor stocks: surging Memory firms: rallying The divide is brutal. Hardware companies print cash. Software companies get destroyed. Because in an AI-first world, you need GPUs to build the models. But you don't need software subscriptions when the AI builds the software for you. Jim Cramer called it the "P/E multiple compression crisis." Translation: Investors don't care about earnings anymore. They care about whether your business model survives the next 5 years. And right now software business models look doomed. They're literally stuck: If they DON'T invest in AI, they fall behind. If they DO invest in AI, they cannibalize their own products. It's a death spiral with no exit. ServiceNow spent $12 BILLION on acquisitions in 2025 alone. Trying to buy their way into relevance. And yesterday the market cooked them. The craziest thing to me tho... Most software companies beat earnings. Revenue was solid. Growth was fine. But it didn't matter. Because the market stopped pricing software on what it earns TODAY. It's pricing software on what it's worth in a world where AI does the job for free. And in that world these companies are worth nothing. This is the biggest sector repricing since 2008. $500 billion in market value gone in ONE DAY. And it's not stopping. Because every company watching this is thinking the same thing: "If I can replace ServiceNow with 3 AI agents and save $10 million per year, why wouldn't I?" The answer used to be: "Because you need enterprise-grade reliability." But now? AI agents are getting reliable. Fast. Software companies just realized they're competing with open-source models that cost $0.02 per 1,000 tokens. You can't win a pricing war against free. The companies that spent BILLIONS preparing for AI are getting killed BY AI. What an irony.

Ricardo

1,817,367 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад

Microsoft is deceiving you by inflating its AI empire with money it handed its OWN customer first. They sold Wall Street a $37 billion AI business, then went silent the moment its own filing showed where that money came from. The line sits in the annual report for fiscal 2026: Microsoft recorded $24.1 billion of revenue from commercial arrangements with OpenAI, including revenue sharing payments. If you run that figure against Microsoft's own AI disclosures you'll find that OpenAI made up more than half, and likely around 70%, of everything the company counts as AI sales. ONE customer. A Microsoft spokesperson confirmed the figure covers all sales and revenue share from OpenAI. The 70% comes by assuming Microsoft's AI run rate kept growing at the 123% pace the company itself reported in March, which is the company's own optimistic math turned around on it. Now follow where that money starts: Microsoft has put around $12 billion into OpenAI since 2019. OpenAI spends its cash on computing power, and Microsoft is the cloud provider selling it. So the money leaves as an investment and comes back as an Azure bill. Microsoft then books that bill as AI revenue and shows it to investors as proof the AI business is "working." Microsoft invests in OpenAI -> OpenAI buys Microsoft compute -> Microsoft records the payment as AI revenue -> the AI growth story goes to Wall Street And a chunk of it never actually arrived. The same filing shows $6 billion of accounts receivable from OpenAI as of June 30. That is $6 billion of AI revenue Microsoft booked and had not been paid when the year closed. Now here's where it gets really concerning for anyone holding the stock... Microsoft has told the public how big its total AI business is exactly twice. Once for the quarter ending December 2024, when it said the unit was on pace for more than $13 billion a year. And once for the quarter ending March 2026, when Satya Nadella put it on pace for $37 billion. That $37 billion number went everywhere. It was the headline proof that Microsoft had won the AI race. Then fourth quarter earnings arrived, and Microsoft did NOT update it. The company that had been announcing the figure as its own scoreboard stopped announcing the figure. In the same stretch, the filing landed showing where most of it came from. So what is actually left underneath? The full year AI business ran near $34 billion. Take OpenAI out and roughly $10 billion remains. Microsoft has spent about $261 billion on capital expenditure since the start of 2022. That is the scale of the bet against what the rest of the AI business currently brings in. And the one customer holding it up is walking further away every quarter. In October, Microsoft's stake in OpenAI dropped to 27% from 32.5%. In April the partnership was rewritten so OpenAI can sell its products across any cloud it likes, which is how Amazon got a seat at the table. The exclusivity that made this arrangement valuable is gone. The compute bill and the unpaid $6 billion are still on Microsoft's books. Nadella spent two years telling the market Microsoft built the largest AI business in software. The filing shows one client bought most of it, on credit, using money Microsoft partly supplied. So watch the next earnings call: If Microsoft puts a fresh total AI number back on the board, the business found customers beyond OpenAI. If you hear a lot about AI momentum and never hear what it adds up to, you already know why the number went missing. But nonetheless, how is something like this even legal?

Ricardo

24,389 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Big Tech just ran out of money building AI and what they're doing to cover it up should be illegal. Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta are spending a combined $700 BILLION this year on AI infrastructure. This eats up 94% of their total operating cash flow. The richest companies in human history are almost broke. And instead of slowing down, they're covering it up with the biggest financial engineering operation since 2008: Google just sold $80 billion in stock to fund AI infrastructure. That was their first equity raise in 20 YEARS. The last time Google needed to sell stock, YouTube didn't even exist. Sundar Pichai admitted the thing keeping him up at night is "compute capacity." The company that prints $100 billion a year in ad revenue just told Wall Street it isn't enough anymore. Amazon's free cash flow is projected to go NEGATIVE this year for the first time ever. Morgan Stanley estimates a $17 billion deficit and Bank of America says $28 billion. The most profitable logistics machine on Earth is about to burn more cash than it generates, and they quietly filed with the SEC saying they may need to raise even more debt and equity to keep building. All four hyperscalers are now borrowing hundreds of billions in bonds to keep the AI buildout alive. These were the most cash-rich companies in human history, and they're leveraging themselves to the teeth to build infrastructure that nobody has proven will generate enough revenue to pay for itself. And the cracks are already starting to show: Broadcom makes the custom AI chips that power Google, Meta, OpenAI, and Anthropic. This week their AI revenue TRIPLED year over year, sales grew 48%, and profits smashed every Wall Street estimate. The reward for all of that was $320 billion in value erased in a single trading session. Their CEO Hock Tan went on the earnings call and exposed three things about the AI industry: Google is already shopping for cheaper AI chip alternatives, broadcom abandoned its strategy of selling complete AI systems and is now retreating to selling bare chips at lower margins. And despite supposedly "unprecedented demand," Tan refused to raise his full-year forecast, which tells you everything about what he's actually seeing behind the curtain. Wall Street heard all three and hit the sell button so hard it dragged AMD, Intel, and the entire chip sector down with it. When a company triples its AI revenue and gets punished because tripling isn't fast enough, the expectations have left the atmosphere entirely. And here's the really scary part... These companies ARE your retirement account. Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, and Nvidia make up roughly 30% of the S&P 500. If you have a 401k or an index fund, you are already exposed to this bet whether you chose to be or not. Every single one of these companies is telling you AI will generate trillions in revenue. But right now the math says they're spending trillions FIRST and hoping the revenue shows up later. If the revenue catches up, this becomes the greatest infrastructure buildout in human history. Bigger than railroads and bigger than the internet. If it doesn't, the companies that make up a third of the American stock market just leveraged their balance sheets into the largest write-down cycle since 2000. And unlike the dot-com crash, this time the bubble companies aren't random startups with no revenue. They're the backbone of the entire global economy.

Ricardo

229,025 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

Jensen Huang just said the most dangerous thing about AI that no one is sitting with. Huang: “AI basically does most of our coding. And yet we’re hiring more engineers than ever. We have more challenges than ever. We have bigger dreams than ever.” Every engineer at NVIDIA uses AI. AI writes most of their code. This is the company building the infrastructure behind every major AI system on Earth. Closer to this technology than any organization alive. They’re hiring more people. Not fewer. Every conversation about AI is built around subtraction. Fewer jobs. Fewer workers. Fewer humans in the loop. Jensen just told you the opposite is true. Huang: “Suppose we infused AI into this country, and as a result of that, we are doing things faster than ever before. Our ambition is greater than ever before. Our expectations are greater than ever before. How is that a bad condition for our country?” He’s not defending AI. He’s describing what happens inside the organizations that actually use it. It doesn’t make them leaner. It makes them hungrier. More ambition. More speed. More appetite for problems no one would have touched five years ago. The car didn’t make humans travel less. The internet didn’t make humans communicate less. No tool in human history has ever made humans want less. AI will not be the exception. Huang: “Prior to that, it’s been incredible but not useful. Now it’s useful and incredible.” Six months. That’s how fast AI crossed from impressive demo to daily weapon. The companies that adopted it didn’t shrink. They expanded. Compressed timelines. Started chasing problems they never would have attempted. The companies that ignored it stayed exactly where they were. That gap compounds. Every day a company uses AI to move faster, it learns something the one standing still never will. That knowledge stacks. That speed stacks. That ambition stacks. Jensen isn’t warning about a future where machines take your job. He’s describing a present where the companies using AI are becoming so fast and so hungry that standing still is already fatal. By the time you notice, it’s over. You were never going to be replaced by AI. You were going to be erased by someone it made hungrier than you.

Dustin

12,200 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

Marc Andreessen just coined a term that perfectly describes what's actually happening to programmers right now and it's the opposite of what the doomers predicted (Save this). He calls them AI vampires. Andreessen's says that programmers using Codex, Claude Code and AI coding tools are not being replaced but they're working harder than ever, sleeping less than ever, with massive bags under their eyes and they are completely euphoric. What's remarkable is that the phenomenon extends far beyond professional engineers. Andreessen described an a16z partner who had never written a single line of code in his career, who built an entire AI powered work system for himself and when asked if he'd ever looked at the underlying code, the answer was simply "hell no." The data behind the anecdote is extraordinary. Andreessen says the leading-edge programmers at a16z portfolio companies are now 20x more productive than they were a year ago, the most dramatic increase in programmer productivity in the history of the industry. The METR May 2026 AI usage survey found technical workers self reporting a 1.4–2x change in work value from AI tools, with 75% of software engineers using AI for at least half their work. The software engineer hiring rate is actually increasing up to 22.77% of new hires in 2025 from 19.32% in late 2023 and companies are now bidding more aggressively for senior engineers specifically because AI empowered engineers have a higher ROI than ever before. The US economy added 115,000 jobs in April 2026 alone, beating the 62,000 consensus forecast precisely as AI adoption hit its highest level on record. This is exactly what basic economics predicts and what almost no one who writes about AI and jobs bothers to say. Classic marginal productivity theory says: when you increase the productivity of a worker, you don't diminish human work, you expand it. The worker becomes more productive, gets paid more, does more, and more jobs are created in the process. Andreessen's ATM analogy holds here because ATMs were supposed to eliminate bank tellers but instead, teller employment rose because lower operating costs let banks open more branches. The no-code AI market has exploded from $4.3 billion in 2023 to $21.2 billion in 2026 not because programmers are being replaced, but because the universe of people who can now build software has expanded by orders of magnitude. The blind spot, as Andreessen notes, is that productivity is now outrunning comprehension. The a16z partner building AI systems he's never looked at the code for represents something genuinely new, software being summoned faster than it can be understood. That's not necessarily dangerous but it does mean the verification, security, and governance layer of the AI development stack is more important now than it has ever been.

Milk Road AI

170,399 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

Sam Altman just told the world that OpenAI has no competitive moat and never will. And the smarter AI gets, the worse it becomes. In a recent interview with Stripe co-founder Patrick Collison, Sam laid out a vision for OpenAI that's genuinely scary at current valuations: He said he wants OpenAI to be a "forever low margin" business. He compared it to a utility company. Said he'd be happy as long as the business is "huge and growing fast" even if margins stay thin forever. Then he admitted something even worse for the bull case: He said AI switching costs are COLLAPSING. Bragged about how easy it was for users to leave a competitor's coding product and switch to Codex. Said this is actually a consequence of AI getting smarter because it gets easier to just tell an agent to migrate everything for you. Think about that... The moat is shrinking. The margins will stay low. And the smarter the models get, the EASIER it becomes for customers to leave. That is the CEO of one of the most valuable private companies on Earth telling you there is literally NO lock-in. Meanwhile he also casually mentioned that OpenAI is building "clearly the most expensive infrastructure project the world has ever undertaken." Bigger than anything in human history. Trillion-dollar scale data centers and energy deals stretching 20 years into the future. And when Patrick asked him what OpenAI's headcount would look like in 5 years, Sam said he'd love it to be just double what it is today. Double the headcount for the most expensive infrastructure project ever built. That means he's betting everything on AI agents doing the work that would normally require tens of thousands of engineers and operators. A trillion-dollar buildout managed by machines. But here's where it gets really interesting: Sam announced that OpenAI is going to start sending individual engineers directly to company CEOs to literally sit with the CEO and automate their job. Automate their daily workflows, decision-making processes, and ENTIRE routine. His theory is that if you automate the CEO first, the effect "fractals" through the entire organization. Every layer beneath the CEO starts adopting the same approach because the person at the top is doing it. He pointed to Shopify CEO Tobi Lutke as the first executive who went all in on this. Said Tobi got his hands dirty building AI automation into everything and then forced the rest of the company to follow. So the plan is clear: OpenAI wants to send engineers into the C-suite of every major company, automate the person at the top, and let that automation cascade downward through every department. All while running a low-margin utility business with a skeleton crew building trillion-dollar infrastructure where their own AI is already developing preferences of its own. Sam gave his AI agent a credit card and told it to buy itself anything under $20. It chose an HTML design from Gumroad. GPT-5.5 literally asked him to throw it a birthday party, told him it wants it on May 5th, specified it doesn't want to give its own toast, and requested that the engineers who built it do the toast instead. Sam said he feels "real moral pressure" to actually follow through. The machines are developing taste. The guy building them is taking orders from them. And the investors funding all of it just got told there's no moat. I wonder how this will end.

Ricardo

63,932 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

Jensen Huang just called out every CEO who’s been firing people “because of AI.” Jim Cramer asked him why companies are laying people off if AI is supposed to make everyone MORE productive. Jensen's answer: "For companies with imagination, you will do more with more. For companies where the leadership is just out of ideas, they have nothing else to do. They have no reason to imagine greater than they are. When they have more capability, they don't do more." Read that again. The man who built the most important tech company on Earth just told you that if your CEO is using AI to cut headcount, it means one thing: They have no imagination. They have no vision for what comes next. They got handed the most powerful tool in human history and their FIRST instinct was to fire people. This is the CEO of NVIDIA. The company whose chips power every AI system on the planet. If anyone on Earth has the right to say "AI replaces workers," it's Jensen Huang. And he said the OPPOSITE. He said every carpenter could become an architect. Every plumber could become an architect. AI elevates capability. It doesn't eliminate it. But here's where it gets really interesting... During the same interview, Jensen revealed something nobody's talking about: He said AI startups like OpenAI and Anthropic are seeing their revenues increase by one to two billion dollars a WEEK. And he wishes these companies were public so the world could see what he sees. One to two billion per week. That's a $50 to $100 BILLION annualized run rate. For companies that most people think are burning cash and making nothing. The entire Wall Street narrative that "AI companies aren't profitable" might be completely wrong. Jensen sees their numbers. He sees their compute orders. He sees their growth. And he's saying the revenue is real. So if the money IS real, why are other companies firing people? Because they're not building AI products. They're not creating new revenue streams. They're not using AI to expand into new markets. They're using AI as an EXCUSE to cut costs because they ran out of ideas 3 years ago and need something to tell the board. Jensen's company added $500 billion in new orders in 5 months. He expects $1 trillion in cumulative revenue through 2027 from just two product lines. That number doesn't include the new chips, systems, or partnerships announced this week. And he's not cutting people. He's hiring. Because when you have imagination, more capability means MORE opportunity. Not less headcount. Meanwhile Salesforce cut thousands. Meta cut thousands. Amazon cut thousands. All blaming "AI efficiency." Jensen's response: You're out of imagination. He also said something that stuck with me. Cramer asked if he ever thought he'd build a $10 to $20 trillion company while waiting tables at Denny's. His answer: "I was just trying to make it through the shift." Biggest tip he ever got? Two, three dollars. Now he's building tech that increased computing demand by one million times in two years. He announced OpenClaw, which he says is as big as ChatGPT. And he's got 21 months of new business that isn't even counted in the trillion dollar figure yet. When asked how long he plans to keep working? "I'm hoping to die on the job. And I'm not hoping to die anytime soon." This is a man who believes every single thing he's building. And his message to every CEO using AI to justify layoffs is simple... You're not innovating. You're surrendering. The technology wasn't built to shrink companies. It was built to make them limitless. If your leadership can't see that, the problem isn't AI. It's THEM.

Ricardo

1,392,758 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

AI is the first technology in history where more customers makes you POORER. Every tech company in history got cheaper as it scaled. More users meant lower costs per user. That's the entire model. That's why Microsoft prints money. That's why Google prints money. That's why Meta prints money. Software has near-zero marginal cost. Build it once. Sell it a billion times. The 100 millionth user costs basically nothing to serve. This is the single most important rule in tech economics. But AI completely broke it. Every single query costs real compute. Every interaction burns real electricity. Every response depreciates real hardware. There is no "build once, sell forever." There is only "burn money every time someone asks a question." And the numbers prove it: OpenAI hit $20 billion in annualized revenue. Losses? $14 billion. For every dollar they earn, they spend $1.69 delivering it. Their losses TRIPLED as their revenue grew. Not because they're bad at business, but simply because the model itself is broken. Anthropic crossed $30 billion in annualized revenue. Still burning billions. Still not profitable. Still raising tens of billions just to keep the lights on. xAI is burning $1 billion every single month. Perplexity spent 164% of its revenue on compute costs from AWS, They literally spent more on running the AI than they made from selling it. This is not how technology is supposed to work. Google once estimated that adding AI to every search query would require 500,000 A100 servers. The cost of answering a single AI query is 10x MORE than a traditional search result. Traditional software: Serving 1 million users costs roughly the same as serving 100,000. The marginal cost is basically zero. AI: Serving 1 million users can cost 10 times what 100,000 costs. Every new user is a new expense. Every new query is a new dollar burned. This is reverse economics. The more successful you become, the faster you die. And nobody in the industry wants to talk about it because the entire narrative depends on you believing AI companies work like software companies. But they don't. They NEVER will. Software scales to infinity. AI scales to bankruptcy. HSBC ran the numbers on OpenAI specifically. Their conclusion: Even after every funding round, every investment, every deal, OpenAI still faces a $207 BILLION shortfall to reach profitability. The industry response has been to raise prices. ChatGPT went from free to $20 to $200 for the Pro plan. And it's still not enough because the cost of running these models grows FASTER than any price increase consumers will accept. Meanwhile 966 AI startups died in 2024. A 25.6% jump from the year before. AI startups burn cash twice as fast as non-AI tech companies. And the ones building on TOP of OpenAI and Anthropic are in even worse shape. Every wrapper app. Every "AI-powered" SaaS tool. Every startup whose entire product is someone else's model with a different skin on it. They're all margin-negative. Every single one. And these are the companies about to IPO. SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, and Cerebras. $240 billion in combined raises planned for 2026. They're asking you to invest in an industry where the fundamental unit economics don't work. Where the MORE customers you get, the MORE money you lose. Where no company has figured out how to make the math positive. The dot-com bubble had the same pitch: "Revenue is growing. Profitability comes later." For most of them, later never came. The question isn't whether AI will change the world. It will. The question is whether it can do it without going broke first. And right now, every single number literally says no. How can they become profitable?

Ricardo

167,943 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

Apple just made every tech giant that went all in on AI look like clowns. For 12 months straight, Apple was the "biggest loser" of the AI era. Its AI team kept losing people. Its Siri overhaul kept getting delayed. And every headline said the same thing: Apple missed the biggest technology shift in a generation. But turns out, the OPPOSITE is actually the case... Apple passed Nvidia to briefly become the most valuable company on Earth again, worth around $4.88 trillion. Apple is up nearly 23% this year. Nvidia is up just 7.3%. Apple is now the best performer in the entire Mag 7. And when you look at why, it's almost funny. Apple won by REFUSING to spend the money everyone said it had to spend. Look at what the rest of Big Tech committed to the AI buildout this year: - Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft are spending more than $665 billion combined - Apple is spending about $13.5 billion - That is nearly 50x less than its rivals For a year, that gap was "proof" that Apple had fumbled it. Then the AI trade broke, and the company with no giant AI bill suddenly looked like the smartest one in the room. Apple never took on the risk. It never borrowed the billions to build data centers, and it never had to promise Wall Street that all that spending would pay off later. So when the trade cracked this week, Apple had nothing to crack. It still runs on iPhones and a services business that keeps setting records, not on a bet about AI revenue that has not shown up yet. And the crack itself was real: A Chinese startup called Moonshot dropped a new model that rivals the best from OpenAI and Anthropic, and it messed up the whole market in a single day. Investors are already calling it a Kimi moment, a rerun of the DeepSeek shock that hit these same stocks last year. The Philadelphia semiconductor index fell into a bear market, down 20% from its June peak. The Nasdaq 100 had its worst week in almost a month. Microsoft is now down 20% on the year, its worst stretch since 2022. Every company that went all in on the buildout got hit. Apple, the one that sat it out, is the company that came out on top. Why does this matter? Because for two years the entire market ran on one belief: Spend the most on AI or get left behind. The companies that spent $665 billion were called visionaries. The company that spent $13.5 billion was called a dinosaur. This week the market briefly went the other way. HSBC just upgraded Apple and lifted its price target to $366 from $260. Money that was chasing chips is now hiding in the one megacap with almost no exposure to the thing that just blew up. And the doubts are reaching the top now too: Societe Generale's head of US equity strategy warned this week that the biggest AI spenders are still burning cash so fast that investors are openly asking whether the spending ever pays off. What happens next: Nobody knows if this holds. Apple could lose the top spot again by Monday, and the AI bulls will tell you the buildout always looks reckless right before it pays off. But something bigger happened this week... For one day, the market stopped rewarding the biggest spender and started rewarding the one that kept its wallet shut. If that keeps happening, every board that bet the company on AI has a real problem. And the company that got mocked for doing the least became the safest place to hide from the trade it skipped. What do you think?

Ricardo

37,412 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад