Video yükleniyor...

Video Yüklenemedi

Ana Sayfaya Dön

$MSTR Saylor’s response to the Bitcoin monetization framework: “I don’t think there’s a conflict between doing the right thing for Bitcoin, doing the right thing for the equity, doing the right thing for the credit. I think those are all in a dynamic harmony with each other.” Strategy has...

13,667 görüntüleme • 11 gün önce •via X (Twitter)

0 Yorum

Yorum bulunmuyor

Orijinal gönderinin yorumları burada görünecek

Benzer Videolar

I joined Laura K. Inamedinova at the Xapo Bank Conference in London on July 1 for a fireside chat on Bitcoin as Digital Capital, the emergence of Digital Credit, and the path to Bitcoin-backed Digital Money. Fix the money, fix the world. $BTC 00:42 — Bitcoin below $60K and the mission: “Fix the money, fix the world” 01:27 — Bitcoin as the dominant Digital Capital network and the next great digital transformation 02:55 — Bitcoin Dominance approaching 69–70% and why “the flippening” debate is over 04:21 — The next layers: Digital Credit and Digital Money built on Bitcoin 06:56 — Strategy as an institutional gateway: attracting $64–65B into Bitcoin across equity, derivatives, credit, and money markets 12:28 — $STRC: bitcoin-backed preferred equity designed to create asset-backed Digital Credit 15:33 — The $STRC breakthrough: potential tax-deferred credit dividends backed by unrealized Bitcoin gains 18:18 — Digital Credit on Digital Capital: the killer app of a $50B bitcoin-backed balance sheet 19:48 — Digital Money: zero-volatility, fiat-pegged, yield-bearing bitcoin-backed assets 22:32 — Stress testing $STRC through deeper Bitcoin drawdowns 25:51 — $STRC vs. Bitcoin in the bear market: stripping ~90% of Bitcoin’s downside volatility 27:04 — Transparent Digital Credit: modeling risk from Bitcoin price and volatility every 15 seconds 30:34 — The builder roadmap: “If you want to make money, make the money” 32:27 — $STRC, $SATA, and the credit layer behind bitcoin-backed Digital Money 36:20 — Wrapping Digital Money as accounts, funds, public products, or tokens 41:27 — Creating Digital Credit on Digital Capital, then Digital Money on Digital Credit 43:00 — 2026 headwinds: geopolitics, the Fed, AI capital rotation, and digital asset regulation 44:54 — Potential catalysts: $STRC returning to par, Digital Credit reaccelerating, and capital flowing back to Digital Capital 46:01 — Why current market conditions may be a strong entry point for Digital Money builders

Michael Saylor

412,271 görüntüleme • 2 gün önce

Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.

Chris Millas

36,835 görüntüleme • 9 ay önce

Bitcoin has already won as Digital Capital. The next wave is Digital Credit, Digital Money, Digital Yield, and Bitcoin-backed capital markets — products that can bring trillions of dollars of traditional credit and money market capital onto Bitcoin. My interview with Cointelegraph at BTC Prague. 00:57 — Bitcoin in a drawdown: five major pullbacks in six years, stronger fundamentals, and rising dominance 02:23 — Digital Credit: from zero to an $11B+ asset class in 12 months 03:35 — Digital Money: bitcoin-backed yieldcoins and the path from 40 vol to 0 vol 04:31 — The opportunity for 8% yield in dollars, euros, yen, pounds, and francs 06:02 — $300T of credit, $30–50T of money markets, and the $10T opportunity for Bitcoin 07:19 — Why Bitcoin is winning economically, technically, and ethically 08:26 — Quantum computing, FUD, and why bear markets amplify Bitcoin debates 10:37 — AI capital rotation, Bitcoin’s current drawdown, and the path to recovery 11:36 — Six years of Strategy: why I would have moved faster into Digital Credit 12:22 — The ideal Bitcoin Treasury Company: common equity plus STRC-style Digital Credit 14:35 — The 32 BTC sale, the $100M bitcoin buyback, and why capital must back credit 17:02 — Defending the equity, credit, and bitcoin-backed capital structure 19:03 — The tradeoff: buy 200,000 BTC and sell 10,000 BTC — or buy and sell zero 20:15 — “Never sell,” Twitter trolls, and Strategy’s fiduciary obligations 22:06 — Bitcoin per share, long-term accretion, and accumulating through bull and bear markets 22:34 — $21B of equity raised in 16 weeks and ~$10B of bitcoin acquired this year 24:18 — The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, US leadership, and supportive regulation 27:18 — Digital Credit, bank credit, and Digital Money bringing trillions onto Bitcoin 28:01 — Why Bitcoin can grow organically without central bank support

Michael Saylor

258,713 görüntüleme • 25 gün önce

What if everyone is measuring $MSTR wrong? In this conversation with Adrian Morris, founding member of True North (True North), we challenge some of the biggest assumptions in the Bitcoin Treasury space: • Why mNAV is really a sentiment metric • Why Bitcoin per share isn't a valuation metric • Why Strategy shouldn't defend its mNAV • The real story behind Strategy selling 32 $BTC • Why $STRC and $SATA may evolve very differently than investors expect • Why AI is attracting some of Bitcoin's capital One of the most thought-provoking $MSTR conversations we've had. If Adrian is right, investors may be looking at $MSTR completely wrong. $MSTR $ASST $MPJPY 00:00 Adrian Morris' Bitcoin Journey & Why He Bought MSTR 05:02 The Real Meaning of mNAV (Market Sentiment) 10:10 Why Bitcoin Treasury mNAVs Eventually Collapse 11:22 Should Bitcoin Treasury Companies Defend Their mNAV? 15:56 The Fatal Flaw in mNAV Buybacks 17:57 Why Strategy Should NOT Sell Bitcoin to Buy Back Shares 20:15 Why Did Strategy Sell 32 Bitcoin? 23:55 MSTR Myths, Margin Calls & X Misinformation 25:38 Why Bitcoin Per Share May Be Misleading Investors 31:09 The Endgame for Bitcoin Treasury Companies 34:42 The Future: REITs, Options & Bitcoin Financial Products 36:46 STRC, SATA & Bitcoin Preferred Shares Explained 41:22 Does STRC Guidance Even Matter? 43:12 Why SATA Outperformed STRC 45:42 Daily Dividends: Innovation or Hype? 48:30 Will STRC & SATA Eventually Cut Dividends? 54:54 Is AI Stealing Capital From Bitcoin? 01:00:51 Can Bitcoin Become AI's Security Layer? 01:03:56 Adrian's Message to Bitcoin Investors Watch the full episode 👇

One Chair

44,606 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

This was the most critical takeaway from the entire interview, yet no one is talking about it. Saylor’s final point was essentially this: you can’t extrapolate into the future based on historical data when the market structure has fundamentally shifted—and continues to do so. Before the approval of the Bitcoin ETFs (and the strategic emergence of Bitcoin accretive derivatives like MicroStrategy), 99% of the capital in the world didn’t have access to Bitcoin. Now, a significant portion of that capital finally has a viable on-ramp to Bitcoin. Take a moment to really consider the implications of that. In other words, the motorcycle has entered the bicycle race. ( Can I request Saylor on a motorcycle entering a bicycle race, please?) And all of your bicycle race data is worthless. Basically, If you're trading #Bitcoin or $MSTR based on historical data (and by extension, the old market structure), you’ll lose. Don’t just take my word for it—listen to Saylor himself: “the fundamental structure of the market is changing.” As a result, the outcomes will inevitably change too. Beyond that, Saylor’s core advice, shaped by his first four years in Bitcoin, is clear: hold through the volatility, stay solvent, and stick to the winning strategy—buy and hold. Bitcoin is intense, unpredictable, and nothing like the traditional markets. Don’t try to predict the beast that is Bitcoin. Prepare yourself for the roller coaster ahead, hold strong, and above all, enjoy the ride.

Mason

141,126 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

Strategy sold 3,588 BTC last week. That's 112x more than the 32 BTC they sold a few weeks ago (which freaked out the market). Here's what's happening and why they are doing this... 1. Last week = Strategy sold Last week, Strategy sold 3,588 BTC and used all of the proceeds ($216m) to fund dividend payments on their suite of preferred equities. Q2 dividend payments for STRF, STRK, STRD, and STRE... and June dividends for STRC. Notably, BTC price opened last week at $59.5k. Strategy sold 3,588 BTC over the course of the week, yet BTC price went up to $63.5k. 2. The bigger picture = Strategy is NET buying Strategy bought 85,296 BTC in Q2. Their combined selling for Q2 was 3,620 BTC (32 + 3,588). In other words, they bought 22.5x more BTC in Q2 than they sold. (For 2026 YTD numbers, Strategy has bought ~175k BTC and sold 3.6k BTC. That's a 48x ratio.) 3. The message in advance Weeks ago, Saylor explained what they are doing, in an interview with Michaël van de Poppe (see clip) "On occasion, we'll buy 20 Bitcoin & we'll sell 1 Bitcoin... Then the credit investors will give us enough to buy 20 more Bitcoin." Saylor further explained the strategic rationale of selling Bitcoin... "Our credit investors expect that we're going to support the credit dividend and pay it (and our asset is BTC)... 'will you sell some Bitcoin to pay us the money?' They expect me to say yes, because if I'm not going to pay the dividend, they're not going to buy the credit & the credit agency won't rate the credit." 4. What Strategy is doing Strategy is showing the market that they can and will sell BTC. They are doing this to gain access to more credit market capital... so that they can buy much more BTC. Saylor has recently asserted that it's important to "buy more Bitcoin than you sell." This is that in action. In Q2, they bought 85k BTC. They then used 3.5k BTC to fund the dividends on the Digital Credit that enabled them to buy 85k BTC. They bought 22.5 and sold 1. 5. What to expect next Saylor said they will "inoculate the market" by selling a little BTC. This is the second dose of inoculation. They will keep doing it until the market expects it and no longer reacts to it. They are not dumping their BTC treasury strategy for dollars. That is the click-bait headline for the uninformed. What they are telling you is that they plan to sell 1 BTC so they can buy 20 BTC. Over and over.

Jesse Myers

166,633 görüntüleme • 5 gün önce