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What if the AI bubble was built on an engineered memory shortage? $MU just crashed over 17% from its recent high right as Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix got hit with a federal lawsuit accusing them of restricting DRAM supply while AI demand sent prices up nearly 700%. The... show more

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🚨 WHAT IF THE MEMORY SHORTAGE WAS MANUFACTURED? Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are being sued for allegedly engineering the DRAM shortage on purpose. The lawsuit claims they used the AI boom as cover to quietly cut normal memory supply. DRAM prices are up 500 to 700%. The damage is now showing up in iPhone and Mac prices. The makers say it's innocent: AI buyers showed up with huge money for HBM. But here's the bigger question. Memory stocks are priced for endless AI demand. If a court rules the scarcity was manufactured, how much of that demand was ever real?

🚨 WHAT IF THE MEMORY SHORTAGE WAS MANUFACTURED? Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are being sued for allegedly engineering the DRAM shortage on purpose. The lawsuit claims they used the AI boom as cover to quietly cut normal memory supply. DRAM prices are up 500 to 700%. The damage is now showing up in iPhone and Mac prices. The makers say it's innocent: AI buyers showed up with huge money for HBM. But here's the bigger question. Memory stocks are priced for endless AI demand. If a court rules the scarcity was manufactured, how much of that demand was ever real?

CryptoGoos

32,262 Aufrufe • vor 17 Tagen

MICRON $MU CEO SAYS THE COMPANY CAN ONLY SUPPLY 50-65% OF WHAT CUSTOMERS NEED RIGHT NOW This isn’t just Micron, Samsung, or SK Hynix. It’s a full-stack constraint that benefits the broader memory and storage ecosystem, including NAND from $SNDK and $WDC, capacity-driven disks from $STX, and system-level storage platforms and arrays from $P. AI demand for DRAM is outpacing supply by an “unprecedented” gap. New fabs take years, and the shortage is expected to persist beyond 2026.

MICRON $MU CEO SAYS THE COMPANY CAN ONLY SUPPLY 50-65% OF WHAT CUSTOMERS NEED RIGHT NOW This isn’t just Micron, Samsung, or SK Hynix. It’s a full-stack constraint that benefits the broader memory and storage ecosystem, including NAND from $SNDK and $WDC, capacity-driven disks from $STX, and system-level storage platforms and arrays from $P. AI demand for DRAM is outpacing supply by an “unprecedented” gap. New fabs take years, and the shortage is expected to persist beyond 2026.

Sam Badawi

385,928 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🇰🇷 SAMSUNG LOSES MEMORY CHIP CROWN - CAN IT CATCH THE AI WAVE? For decades, Samsung sat on the silicon throne. Now SK Hynix - once the scrappy underdog - has edged past it in memory chips, the very hardware fueling the AI boom. The timing stings: AI demand is exploding, and the lead is slipping away. Samsung still has scale, cash, and R&D muscle - but in this race, every quarter counts. Fall too far behind now, and the world’s biggest chipmaker could find itself buying tickets to the future instead of building it. Source: Bloomberg, Bloomberg

🇰🇷 SAMSUNG LOSES MEMORY CHIP CROWN - CAN IT CATCH THE AI WAVE? For decades, Samsung sat on the silicon throne. Now SK Hynix - once the scrappy underdog - has edged past it in memory chips, the very hardware fueling the AI boom. The timing stings: AI demand is exploding, and the lead is slipping away. Samsung still has scale, cash, and R&D muscle - but in this race, every quarter counts. Fall too far behind now, and the world’s biggest chipmaker could find itself buying tickets to the future instead of building it. Source: Bloomberg, Bloomberg

Mario Nawfal

100,471 Aufrufe • vor 11 Monaten

🚨 THIS IS NOT NORMAL 🇺🇸 OVER $400,000,000,000.00 HAS BEEN WIPED OUT FROM THE U.S. STOCK MARKET IN JUST 5 MINUTES! MEMORY CHIP MAKERS SAMSUNG AND SK HYNIX ARE DOWN 10–15% AND CONTINUE TO FALL. LOOKS LIKE THE AI BUBBLE IS OFFICIALLY STARTING TO BURST...

🚨 THIS IS NOT NORMAL 🇺🇸 OVER $400,000,000,000.00 HAS BEEN WIPED OUT FROM THE U.S. STOCK MARKET IN JUST 5 MINUTES! MEMORY CHIP MAKERS SAMSUNG AND SK HYNIX ARE DOWN 10–15% AND CONTINUE TO FALL. LOOKS LIKE THE AI BUBBLE IS OFFICIALLY STARTING TO BURST...

0xNobler

58,847 Aufrufe • vor 4 Tagen

🚨 BREAKING: ABSOLUTE BLOODBATH!! 🇰🇷 OVER ₩300,000,000,000,000.00 HAS BEEN WIPED OUT FROM THE KOREAN STOCK MARKET RIGHT AFTER THE OPEN! MEMORY CHIP MAKERS SAMSUNG AND SK HYNIX DUMPED 10-15% AMID EARLY SIGNS OF AI BUBBLE COLLAPSE. THIS IS NOT LOOKING GOOD FOR THE MARKETS...

🚨 BREAKING: ABSOLUTE BLOODBATH!! 🇰🇷 OVER ₩300,000,000,000,000.00 HAS BEEN WIPED OUT FROM THE KOREAN STOCK MARKET RIGHT AFTER THE OPEN! MEMORY CHIP MAKERS SAMSUNG AND SK HYNIX DUMPED 10-15% AMID EARLY SIGNS OF AI BUBBLE COLLAPSE. THIS IS NOT LOOKING GOOD FOR THE MARKETS...

0xNobler

284,621 Aufrufe • vor 10 Tagen

The AI boom just hit a wall nobody saw coming. And it's not software. It's not regulation. It's not even energy... It's memory chips. Right now, Dell is raising PC prices by 30%. Intel can't ship chips. Nvidia is slashing GPU production by 40%. And almost nobody understands why. Here's the "hidden" crisis the AI industry is trying to hide: AI data centers are hoarding memory. Not GPUs. Not processors. MEMORY. Every AI server needs massive amounts of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to run those models everyone's hyping. One problem: There are only 3 companies in the world that can make it. Samsung. SK Hynix. Micron. That's it. And all 3 just diverted their entire production capacity away from normal RAM to feed AI data centers. The math that breaks everything: 1 gigabyte of HBM takes 4X the manufacturing capacity of regular DRAM. AI will consume 20% of global DRAM production in 2026. But the thing is, consumer demand for RAM didn't disappear. PCs still need memory. Phones still need memory. Cars still need memory. But there's no capacity left to make it. The price explosion: RAM prices are up 246% in the last 6 months. DDR5 contract prices jumped 100% month-over-month in some cases. Dell's CFO said he's "never witnessed costs escalating at this pace." SK Hynix and Micron? Sold out through all of 2026. Micron straight up EXITED the consumer memory market entirely to focus on AI customers. If you're not building an AI data center, you're not getting memory chips. AI data centers pay 3-5X margins compared to consumer products. So memory manufacturers are rationally choosing: Serve Microsoft and Google's AI buildout, or serve Dell's laptop business? Easy choice. Every wafer allocated to an Nvidia H100 GPU is a wafer DENIED to your next laptop. It's a zero-sum game. And consumers are losing. The dangerous cascade effect: Nvidia is cutting RTX 50-series GPU production by 30-40% because they can't get GDDR7 memory. Dell, Lenovo, HP are all raising PC prices 15-30% in early 2026. Xiaomi and other smartphone makers are cutting shipment targets. Even Intel's crash last week? Partially driven by memory shortages limiting chip production. This is a PERMANENT reallocation of the world's silicon capacity. Not a temporary supply hiccup. For decades, consumer electronics (phones, PCs, laptops) drove memory production. Now? AI data centers are the priority customer. And that priority shift is reshaping the entire tech economy. The timeline Is worse than you think: Industry analysts project shortages lasting through 2027, maybe 2028. Why? Because building new memory fabs takes 3-5 YEARS. Micron's new Idaho fab won't meaningfully impact supply until 2028. Samsung and SK Hynix are too busy ramping up HBM4 production to expand consumer DRAM. So we're stuck. AI companies need memory to scale. But producing that memory DESTROYS the supply chain for everything else. My question here: Everyone's betting on AI scaling infinitely. But what if the AI boom STALLS because there's not enough memory to support it? What if we're not in an "AI supercycle" but a "memory shortage that kills the AI buildout"? Intel crashed 17% because they can't manufacture enough chips. The root cause though? Memory shortages limiting what they can even produce. Nvidia is cutting GPU production by 40%. AMD is struggling to get GDDR6 for Radeon cards. This isn't just a consumer problem. It's an AI infrastructure problem. And if memory doesn't scale, AI doesn't scale. The AI industry sold you on infinite scaling. But they forgot to mention the part where there's only 3 companies making the memory chips that power everything. And all 3 just chose AI data centers over you. Even Nvidia can't make enough GPUs to meet demand. Not because of energy. Not because of regulation... But because the memory supply chain is BROKEN. And it won't be fixed until 2028.

The AI boom just hit a wall nobody saw coming. And it's not software. It's not regulation. It's not even energy... It's memory chips. Right now, Dell is raising PC prices by 30%. Intel can't ship chips. Nvidia is slashing GPU production by 40%. And almost nobody understands why. Here's the "hidden" crisis the AI industry is trying to hide: AI data centers are hoarding memory. Not GPUs. Not processors. MEMORY. Every AI server needs massive amounts of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to run those models everyone's hyping. One problem: There are only 3 companies in the world that can make it. Samsung. SK Hynix. Micron. That's it. And all 3 just diverted their entire production capacity away from normal RAM to feed AI data centers. The math that breaks everything: 1 gigabyte of HBM takes 4X the manufacturing capacity of regular DRAM. AI will consume 20% of global DRAM production in 2026. But the thing is, consumer demand for RAM didn't disappear. PCs still need memory. Phones still need memory. Cars still need memory. But there's no capacity left to make it. The price explosion: RAM prices are up 246% in the last 6 months. DDR5 contract prices jumped 100% month-over-month in some cases. Dell's CFO said he's "never witnessed costs escalating at this pace." SK Hynix and Micron? Sold out through all of 2026. Micron straight up EXITED the consumer memory market entirely to focus on AI customers. If you're not building an AI data center, you're not getting memory chips. AI data centers pay 3-5X margins compared to consumer products. So memory manufacturers are rationally choosing: Serve Microsoft and Google's AI buildout, or serve Dell's laptop business? Easy choice. Every wafer allocated to an Nvidia H100 GPU is a wafer DENIED to your next laptop. It's a zero-sum game. And consumers are losing. The dangerous cascade effect: Nvidia is cutting RTX 50-series GPU production by 30-40% because they can't get GDDR7 memory. Dell, Lenovo, HP are all raising PC prices 15-30% in early 2026. Xiaomi and other smartphone makers are cutting shipment targets. Even Intel's crash last week? Partially driven by memory shortages limiting chip production. This is a PERMANENT reallocation of the world's silicon capacity. Not a temporary supply hiccup. For decades, consumer electronics (phones, PCs, laptops) drove memory production. Now? AI data centers are the priority customer. And that priority shift is reshaping the entire tech economy. The timeline Is worse than you think: Industry analysts project shortages lasting through 2027, maybe 2028. Why? Because building new memory fabs takes 3-5 YEARS. Micron's new Idaho fab won't meaningfully impact supply until 2028. Samsung and SK Hynix are too busy ramping up HBM4 production to expand consumer DRAM. So we're stuck. AI companies need memory to scale. But producing that memory DESTROYS the supply chain for everything else. My question here: Everyone's betting on AI scaling infinitely. But what if the AI boom STALLS because there's not enough memory to support it? What if we're not in an "AI supercycle" but a "memory shortage that kills the AI buildout"? Intel crashed 17% because they can't manufacture enough chips. The root cause though? Memory shortages limiting what they can even produce. Nvidia is cutting GPU production by 40%. AMD is struggling to get GDDR6 for Radeon cards. This isn't just a consumer problem. It's an AI infrastructure problem. And if memory doesn't scale, AI doesn't scale. The AI industry sold you on infinite scaling. But they forgot to mention the part where there's only 3 companies making the memory chips that power everything. And all 3 just chose AI data centers over you. Even Nvidia can't make enough GPUs to meet demand. Not because of energy. Not because of regulation... But because the memory supply chain is BROKEN. And it won't be fixed until 2028.

Ricardo

594,453 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

CHINA JUST HIT THE NUMBER THAT BREAKS THE MEMORY CARTEL. 🚨 Cheap Chinese chips are about to flood the global market. CXMT, China's biggest memory chip maker, can now make advanced memory chips with 80% of every batch coming out good. That number matters. Below 80%, you lose money on every chip. Above 80%, you make money on every chip. China just crossed that line. For years, three companies (Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron) controlled the entire memory market. They pushed prices up 414% in three months. They handed out $400,000 bonuses. Goldman Sachs calls it "RAMageddon. They thought they had years before China could catch up. They were wrong. CXMT revenue is up 700% versus last year. They're scaling fast.

CHINA JUST HIT THE NUMBER THAT BREAKS THE MEMORY CARTEL. 🚨 Cheap Chinese chips are about to flood the global market. CXMT, China's biggest memory chip maker, can now make advanced memory chips with 80% of every batch coming out good. That number matters. Below 80%, you lose money on every chip. Above 80%, you make money on every chip. China just crossed that line. For years, three companies (Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron) controlled the entire memory market. They pushed prices up 414% in three months. They handed out $400,000 bonuses. Goldman Sachs calls it "RAMageddon. They thought they had years before China could catch up. They were wrong. CXMT revenue is up 700% versus last year. They're scaling fast.

CryptoGoos

64,377 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Gavin Baker, CIO of Atreides Management made one of the most important and nuanced calls on memory stocks in recent months (Save this). His argument is that based on every memory cycle of the last 25 years, the setup today, prices elevated, sentiment high, supply ramping is textbook time to sell but he adds a critical exception. The one cycle in modern memory history where selling was catastrophically wrong was the mid-1990s, which Baker calls the last true capacity cycle in memory. In that cycle, demand was structurally exploding as the internet era required entirely new computing infrastructure to be built from scratch, and memory had to scale with it in a way that had never happened before. His point is that AI may be that same kind of cycle and not a normal boom bust but a once in a generation capacity buildout where the underlying demand is structural, not cyclical. The reason this argument holds weight is the fundamental shift in what memory is in the AI era. Traditional DRAM was a pure commodity, identical specs, interchangeable suppliers, price determined entirely by supply and demand swings. HBM is the opposite because it is custom engineered to fit a specific customer's chip, co-designed between the memory maker and the GPU designer, with SK Hynix's Vice President literally describing it as shifting from a commodity to a customer-tailored custom business. A single Blackwell Ultra GPU now requires up to 288GB of HBM3E, a 3.6x increase over the H100 and major suppliers like SK Hynix and Micron have already sold out their entire HBM production capacity through the end of the year. Because HBM requires advanced packaging processes like CoWoS that can't be spun up overnight, the bottleneck isn't just wafer capacity but rather runs across the entire manufacturing stack. Bank of America projects the global HBM market grows 58% this year alone to $54.6 billion, and Nomura expects the broader memory sector to nearly double to $445 billion. Long Micron!

Gavin Baker, CIO of Atreides Management made one of the most important and nuanced calls on memory stocks in recent months (Save this). His argument is that based on every memory cycle of the last 25 years, the setup today, prices elevated, sentiment high, supply ramping is textbook time to sell but he adds a critical exception. The one cycle in modern memory history where selling was catastrophically wrong was the mid-1990s, which Baker calls the last true capacity cycle in memory. In that cycle, demand was structurally exploding as the internet era required entirely new computing infrastructure to be built from scratch, and memory had to scale with it in a way that had never happened before. His point is that AI may be that same kind of cycle and not a normal boom bust but a once in a generation capacity buildout where the underlying demand is structural, not cyclical. The reason this argument holds weight is the fundamental shift in what memory is in the AI era. Traditional DRAM was a pure commodity, identical specs, interchangeable suppliers, price determined entirely by supply and demand swings. HBM is the opposite because it is custom engineered to fit a specific customer's chip, co-designed between the memory maker and the GPU designer, with SK Hynix's Vice President literally describing it as shifting from a commodity to a customer-tailored custom business. A single Blackwell Ultra GPU now requires up to 288GB of HBM3E, a 3.6x increase over the H100 and major suppliers like SK Hynix and Micron have already sold out their entire HBM production capacity through the end of the year. Because HBM requires advanced packaging processes like CoWoS that can't be spun up overnight, the bottleneck isn't just wafer capacity but rather runs across the entire manufacturing stack. Bank of America projects the global HBM market grows 58% this year alone to $54.6 billion, and Nomura expects the broader memory sector to nearly double to $445 billion. Long Micron!

Milk Road AI

260,384 Aufrufe • vor 18 Tagen

Elon Musk just described a project so large that most people will assume he is exaggerating (Save this). He is not. In the video, Musk lays out the central problem facing every AI company on earth, the entire global chip industry is on a path to produce roughly 100 gigawatts of AI compute per year. That sounds like a lot until you understand that his companies alone Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI will need orders of magnitude more than that. His answer is the TerraFab. It is a joint chip factory spanning 100 million square feet, ten times the size of Tesla's Gigafactory Texas announced in March 2026, with Grimes County, Texas commissioners approving the full scale facility site just last week. The goal is one full terawatt of AI compute output per year. For context, 1 terawatt is 1,000 gigawatts twice the current total electricity consumption of the United States. SpaceX has already committed an initial $55 billion to the prototype phase, with total investment estimates ranging into the trillions. Here is why this matters for Micron specifically. In the video, Musk named Nvidia's Rubin chips as the reference design for TerraFab's first orbital deployments, and said "You're going to need a lot of memory to go with that." A billion full radical equivalent chips per year, each requiring stacks of high bandwidth memory, that is the demand signal Micron just received from one of the most capital-intensive projects in human history. And Micron already cannot keep up with what exists today. Micron's entire 2026 HBM output is fully sold out contracted before the year began. HBM4 entered volume production ahead of schedule and sold out immediately. The structural reason Micron wins here is simple. Every AI chip ever built Nvidia H100s, Rubin chips, custom ASICs, TPUs is useless without high-bandwidth memory stacked directly on top of it. There are only three companies in the world that supply HBM at scale, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Samsung has had quality issues, SK Hynix is supply constrained. Micron is the only US headquartered HBM manufacturer which matters enormously given CHIPS Act subsidies, domestic procurement requirements, and the political push to keep critical AI memory production on American soil. TerraFab just made the memory deficit permanently larger. Come join Milk Road Pro for our full breakdown of Micron and our entire AI thesis just for $1. Link below!

Elon Musk just described a project so large that most people will assume he is exaggerating (Save this). He is not. In the video, Musk lays out the central problem facing every AI company on earth, the entire global chip industry is on a path to produce roughly 100 gigawatts of AI compute per year. That sounds like a lot until you understand that his companies alone Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI will need orders of magnitude more than that. His answer is the TerraFab. It is a joint chip factory spanning 100 million square feet, ten times the size of Tesla's Gigafactory Texas announced in March 2026, with Grimes County, Texas commissioners approving the full scale facility site just last week. The goal is one full terawatt of AI compute output per year. For context, 1 terawatt is 1,000 gigawatts twice the current total electricity consumption of the United States. SpaceX has already committed an initial $55 billion to the prototype phase, with total investment estimates ranging into the trillions. Here is why this matters for Micron specifically. In the video, Musk named Nvidia's Rubin chips as the reference design for TerraFab's first orbital deployments, and said "You're going to need a lot of memory to go with that." A billion full radical equivalent chips per year, each requiring stacks of high bandwidth memory, that is the demand signal Micron just received from one of the most capital-intensive projects in human history. And Micron already cannot keep up with what exists today. Micron's entire 2026 HBM output is fully sold out contracted before the year began. HBM4 entered volume production ahead of schedule and sold out immediately. The structural reason Micron wins here is simple. Every AI chip ever built Nvidia H100s, Rubin chips, custom ASICs, TPUs is useless without high-bandwidth memory stacked directly on top of it. There are only three companies in the world that supply HBM at scale, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Samsung has had quality issues, SK Hynix is supply constrained. Micron is the only US headquartered HBM manufacturer which matters enormously given CHIPS Act subsidies, domestic procurement requirements, and the political push to keep critical AI memory production on American soil. TerraFab just made the memory deficit permanently larger. Come join Milk Road Pro for our full breakdown of Micron and our entire AI thesis just for $1. Link below!

Milk Road AI

245,900 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Micron is one of the most UNDERVALUED stocks in the entire AI trade right now and everyone should be buying at these prices. (Save this). Jensen laid out the situation in one sentence, the supply chain is lined up, the HBM is lined up with the Grace Blackwell GPUs, the only problem is that demand is much greater than the overall capacity of the world. And Michael Dell said it before Jensen even finished that memory is the single biggest supply constraint in the entire AI buildout right now. Every HBM chip that Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung produce consumes three times the silicon wafer area of standard DRAM. Nvidia's Rubin GPU requires 288GB of HBM per chip, a 260% increase over the H100 in just two generations. Every major hyperscaler has locked up contracts through 2026, and Micron has said publicly it can only fulfill about two-thirds of medium-term demand for some customers. And it's HBM production is sold out entirely for 2026 and HBM4 is also already sold out. The numbers tell the story, DDR4 spot prices surged roughly 15x in eight months. DRAM contract prices rose 90-95% in a single quarter, TrendForce called it "essentially unprecedented" in the history of the memory market. Micron has rallied roughly 68% year to date in 2026, and yet it still trades at a P/E of 37.6x against an industry average of 75.3x. The shortage does not resolve until new fabs come online, Micron's new factories are not producing until 2027 and 2028 at the earliest, and the memory shortage is forecast to run until at least 2027. Milk Road Pro has been covering the HBM memory trade as a core AI infrastructure thesis before it became a consensus Wall Street call and our Pro members are already up massively in $MU. Come join us at the link in bio/below to see our full portfolio and the names we're watching before the rest of the market catches on.

Micron is one of the most UNDERVALUED stocks in the entire AI trade right now and everyone should be buying at these prices. (Save this). Jensen laid out the situation in one sentence, the supply chain is lined up, the HBM is lined up with the Grace Blackwell GPUs, the only problem is that demand is much greater than the overall capacity of the world. And Michael Dell said it before Jensen even finished that memory is the single biggest supply constraint in the entire AI buildout right now. Every HBM chip that Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung produce consumes three times the silicon wafer area of standard DRAM. Nvidia's Rubin GPU requires 288GB of HBM per chip, a 260% increase over the H100 in just two generations. Every major hyperscaler has locked up contracts through 2026, and Micron has said publicly it can only fulfill about two-thirds of medium-term demand for some customers. And it's HBM production is sold out entirely for 2026 and HBM4 is also already sold out. The numbers tell the story, DDR4 spot prices surged roughly 15x in eight months. DRAM contract prices rose 90-95% in a single quarter, TrendForce called it "essentially unprecedented" in the history of the memory market. Micron has rallied roughly 68% year to date in 2026, and yet it still trades at a P/E of 37.6x against an industry average of 75.3x. The shortage does not resolve until new fabs come online, Micron's new factories are not producing until 2027 and 2028 at the earliest, and the memory shortage is forecast to run until at least 2027. Milk Road Pro has been covering the HBM memory trade as a core AI infrastructure thesis before it became a consensus Wall Street call and our Pro members are already up massively in $MU. Come join us at the link in bio/below to see our full portfolio and the names we're watching before the rest of the market catches on.

Milk Road AI

146,805 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

$MU $00060 $00530 $TSM Evolution of the AI Memory Hierarchy: HBM, DRAM, & SRAM Overview and Market Analysis The video outlines the strategic shift of modern computing toward a memory-centric architecture driven by the demands of generative AI. It explains that the industry is moving away from a traditional commodity model to a tightly coupled hierarchy of specialized technologies, where High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and advanced packaging act as primary bottlenecks for performance. Leading manufacturers like SK hynix, Samsung, and Micron are navigating complex transitions to HBM4 and CXL-based expansion to overcome data movement constraints. Beyond the memory producers, the ecosystem relies on integration enablers like TSMC for packaging and specialized equipment providers for high-precision manufacturing. Ultimately, the analysis suggests that memory intensity and power efficiency have become the decisive factors in the success of gigawatt-scale data centers.

$MU $00060 $00530 $TSM Evolution of the AI Memory Hierarchy: HBM, DRAM, & SRAM Overview and Market Analysis The video outlines the strategic shift of modern computing toward a memory-centric architecture driven by the demands of generative AI. It explains that the industry is moving away from a traditional commodity model to a tightly coupled hierarchy of specialized technologies, where High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and advanced packaging act as primary bottlenecks for performance. Leading manufacturers like SK hynix, Samsung, and Micron are navigating complex transitions to HBM4 and CXL-based expansion to overcome data movement constraints. Beyond the memory producers, the ecosystem relies on integration enablers like TSMC for packaging and specialized equipment providers for high-precision manufacturing. Ultimately, the analysis suggests that memory intensity and power efficiency have become the decisive factors in the success of gigawatt-scale data centers.

TheValueist

23,901 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

Micron is going to $4,000 and here is why (Save this). For 25 years, DRAM prices did one thing, they went down. Memory makers overbuilt, supply overwhelmed demand, buyers had all the negotiating leverage and that commodity trap crushed memory stocks every single cycle. What you are watching right now is a complete structural break from that 25 year trend. DRAM contract prices are up 700% year over year and the reason is AI and it is not going away. HBM3 was 12 layers, HBM4 in production and shipping now to Nvidia's latest GPUs is 16 layers. Each generation consumes significantly more wafer to produce than the last, meaning supply structurally tightens as the technology advances. Memory was 8% of hyperscaler capex in 2023 but is 35% in 2026 and is projected to hit 48% in 2027. Nearly half of everything Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta spend on infrastructure will go to memory by next year. Going from the GB300 to the Vera Rubin 200 generation, GPU cost went up 57% while memory cost went up 435%. There are three companies on earth that can make DRAM at scale, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Both Samsung and SK Hynix are converting capacity to HBM which means conventional DRAM supply tightens further for everything else, and Micron captures pricing on both sides. Micron guided to $33.5 billion for Q3 and they reported $41.46 billion, a $7.96 billion beat, the largest earnings beat in the company's history. Gross margins came in at 85% above the 81% they guided. For Q4, they are now guiding to $50 billion in revenue with ~86% gross margins and $31 EPS. At $112 EPS in FY2027, the pre-earnings consensus and a 35x multiple, that is a $3,920 stock but with Q4 guiding to $31 EPS alone in a single quarter, FY2027 estimates will be revised meaningfully higher. Deutsche Bank says the supply-demand gap worsens through all of 2027 and into 2028. The market still thinks this is a cyclical bounce but this is far from it. This is the first chapters of a multi year repricing of the most critical component in the AI economy and Micron is at the center of it. Follow me Melvin for more AI, semis, and the next big market themes.

Micron is going to $4,000 and here is why (Save this). For 25 years, DRAM prices did one thing, they went down. Memory makers overbuilt, supply overwhelmed demand, buyers had all the negotiating leverage and that commodity trap crushed memory stocks every single cycle. What you are watching right now is a complete structural break from that 25 year trend. DRAM contract prices are up 700% year over year and the reason is AI and it is not going away. HBM3 was 12 layers, HBM4 in production and shipping now to Nvidia's latest GPUs is 16 layers. Each generation consumes significantly more wafer to produce than the last, meaning supply structurally tightens as the technology advances. Memory was 8% of hyperscaler capex in 2023 but is 35% in 2026 and is projected to hit 48% in 2027. Nearly half of everything Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta spend on infrastructure will go to memory by next year. Going from the GB300 to the Vera Rubin 200 generation, GPU cost went up 57% while memory cost went up 435%. There are three companies on earth that can make DRAM at scale, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Both Samsung and SK Hynix are converting capacity to HBM which means conventional DRAM supply tightens further for everything else, and Micron captures pricing on both sides. Micron guided to $33.5 billion for Q3 and they reported $41.46 billion, a $7.96 billion beat, the largest earnings beat in the company's history. Gross margins came in at 85% above the 81% they guided. For Q4, they are now guiding to $50 billion in revenue with ~86% gross margins and $31 EPS. At $112 EPS in FY2027, the pre-earnings consensus and a 35x multiple, that is a $3,920 stock but with Q4 guiding to $31 EPS alone in a single quarter, FY2027 estimates will be revised meaningfully higher. Deutsche Bank says the supply-demand gap worsens through all of 2027 and into 2028. The market still thinks this is a cyclical bounce but this is far from it. This is the first chapters of a multi year repricing of the most critical component in the AI economy and Micron is at the center of it. Follow me Melvin for more AI, semis, and the next big market themes.

Melvin

92,821 Aufrufe • vor 21 Tagen

AI companies just BROKE the global supply chain for every piece of technology you own. And the fallout is way worse than anyone predicted... Sony is delaying the next PlayStation to 2028 or 2029. Nintendo is hiking the Switch 2 price mid-cycle. Apple warned investors that iPhone margins are getting crushed. Cisco just posted its worst share loss in 4 years. Oppo is cutting phone shipments by 20%. Lenovo, Dell, HP, Acer, and ASUS are all raising laptop prices 15-20%. Samsung is now reviewing memory contracts QUARTERLY instead of annually because prices change too fast to plan. And Elon Musk just told investors Tesla has to build its own chip factory from scratch because no supplier on the planet can keep up. His exact words: "We've got two choices: hit the chip wall or make a fab." All of this happened in the last 3 weeks. Same cause. Every single time. AI data centers are buying every memory chip on Earth. And there's nothing left for everyone else. Here's how we got here: 3 years ago, ChatGPT launched and the AI arms race began. Since then, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, the only 3 companies that make memory chips, quietly made a decision that's now reshaping the ENTIRE global economy. They stopped prioritizing consumer memory. Every factory. Every production line. Every wafer. All redirected toward one customer: AI data centers Why? Money. AI memory chips sell for 3-5X the margin of regular RAM. When Google calls offering to buy your entire output at premium pricing, you don't say no. So the 3 companies that control 90% of the world's memory supply chose their highest-paying customers and left everyone else fighting over scraps. The numbers from this week are insane: OpenAI's Stargate project ALONE will consume 40% of the entire world's DRAM output. HBM demand is surging 70% year over year in 2026. HBM now takes 23% of total DRAM wafer production, up from 19% last year. Meanwhile, there's a 4% gap between global DRAM supply and demand. And that doesn't even account for depleted inventories across multiple industries. DRAM prices have surged over 170% since early 2025. DDR5 contract prices are still jumping double digits month over month. And the memory makers? They're printing money. Micron's revenue is expected to more than DOUBLE this fiscal year. SK Hynix sales doubled in 2024 and are on pace to double AGAIN. Samsung just reported quarterly profit nearly tripling. 3 companies. $650 billion in AI spending chasing their products. And they get to name their price. But the collateral damage is everywhere: Every industry that uses memory, which is every industry, is getting squeezed. Smartphone manufacturers are getting destroyed. For a mid-range phone, memory now represents up to 30% of the total build cost. Triple what it was in early 2025. Chinese phone makers like Xiaomi, Oppo, and Transsion are cutting shipment forecasts and raising prices because they literally cannot afford the memory to build their phones. Lenovo's CFO called the cost surge "unprecedented" and admitted they stockpiled 50% more inventory than normal just to survive the next few months. The PC market could shrink by up to 9% this year according to IDC. Not because people don't want computers. But because they can't afford the memory that goes inside them. And the gaming industry? Sony is seriously considering pushing the next PlayStation to 2028 or 2029. Their carefully planned console cycle is getting blown up because they can't secure memory at prices that make a new console viable. Nintendo is looking at raising the Switch 2 price. In the middle of a launch cycle. Something console makers almost never do. Nvidia is cutting RTX GPU production because they can't get enough GDDR7 memory. Even the car industry is getting hit... Analysts are warning about a repeat of the pandemic-era chip shortage that shut down auto factories worldwide. All because AI companies decided their chatbots needed the memory more than your car does. And this doesn't get better for YEARS. Building a new memory fab takes 3-5 years minimum. Micron's new factory in Idaho won't meaningfully increase supply until 2027 at the earliest. By then, AI demand will have grown even more. Memory makers are already selling their 2027 AND 2028 capacity to AI customers today. There is no supply relief coming. That's why Elon is planning to build Tesla's own "TeraFab," a massive semiconductor plant that makes logic chips, memory, AND packaging all under one roof. He said existing suppliers including TSMC, Samsung, and Micron simply cannot supply Tesla at the levels the company needs. Think about that. One of the richest men in the world, running one of the largest companies on Earth, can't buy enough memory chips. So he's building his own factory. If ELON can't get supply, what chance does everyone else have? The AI revolution has a tax. And YOU'RE paying it. Every dollar Big Tech spends on AI infrastructure drives up the cost of the memory inside your phone, your laptop, your car, your TV, and your gaming console. $650 billion in AI spending this year. 3 companies controlling 90% of the memory supply. And every wafer they allocate to an Nvidia GPU is a wafer denied to the device in your pocket. The AI boom isn't free. You're subsidizing it every time you buy a piece of technology. And the bill just went up like crazy.

AI companies just BROKE the global supply chain for every piece of technology you own. And the fallout is way worse than anyone predicted... Sony is delaying the next PlayStation to 2028 or 2029. Nintendo is hiking the Switch 2 price mid-cycle. Apple warned investors that iPhone margins are getting crushed. Cisco just posted its worst share loss in 4 years. Oppo is cutting phone shipments by 20%. Lenovo, Dell, HP, Acer, and ASUS are all raising laptop prices 15-20%. Samsung is now reviewing memory contracts QUARTERLY instead of annually because prices change too fast to plan. And Elon Musk just told investors Tesla has to build its own chip factory from scratch because no supplier on the planet can keep up. His exact words: "We've got two choices: hit the chip wall or make a fab." All of this happened in the last 3 weeks. Same cause. Every single time. AI data centers are buying every memory chip on Earth. And there's nothing left for everyone else. Here's how we got here: 3 years ago, ChatGPT launched and the AI arms race began. Since then, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, the only 3 companies that make memory chips, quietly made a decision that's now reshaping the ENTIRE global economy. They stopped prioritizing consumer memory. Every factory. Every production line. Every wafer. All redirected toward one customer: AI data centers Why? Money. AI memory chips sell for 3-5X the margin of regular RAM. When Google calls offering to buy your entire output at premium pricing, you don't say no. So the 3 companies that control 90% of the world's memory supply chose their highest-paying customers and left everyone else fighting over scraps. The numbers from this week are insane: OpenAI's Stargate project ALONE will consume 40% of the entire world's DRAM output. HBM demand is surging 70% year over year in 2026. HBM now takes 23% of total DRAM wafer production, up from 19% last year. Meanwhile, there's a 4% gap between global DRAM supply and demand. And that doesn't even account for depleted inventories across multiple industries. DRAM prices have surged over 170% since early 2025. DDR5 contract prices are still jumping double digits month over month. And the memory makers? They're printing money. Micron's revenue is expected to more than DOUBLE this fiscal year. SK Hynix sales doubled in 2024 and are on pace to double AGAIN. Samsung just reported quarterly profit nearly tripling. 3 companies. $650 billion in AI spending chasing their products. And they get to name their price. But the collateral damage is everywhere: Every industry that uses memory, which is every industry, is getting squeezed. Smartphone manufacturers are getting destroyed. For a mid-range phone, memory now represents up to 30% of the total build cost. Triple what it was in early 2025. Chinese phone makers like Xiaomi, Oppo, and Transsion are cutting shipment forecasts and raising prices because they literally cannot afford the memory to build their phones. Lenovo's CFO called the cost surge "unprecedented" and admitted they stockpiled 50% more inventory than normal just to survive the next few months. The PC market could shrink by up to 9% this year according to IDC. Not because people don't want computers. But because they can't afford the memory that goes inside them. And the gaming industry? Sony is seriously considering pushing the next PlayStation to 2028 or 2029. Their carefully planned console cycle is getting blown up because they can't secure memory at prices that make a new console viable. Nintendo is looking at raising the Switch 2 price. In the middle of a launch cycle. Something console makers almost never do. Nvidia is cutting RTX GPU production because they can't get enough GDDR7 memory. Even the car industry is getting hit... Analysts are warning about a repeat of the pandemic-era chip shortage that shut down auto factories worldwide. All because AI companies decided their chatbots needed the memory more than your car does. And this doesn't get better for YEARS. Building a new memory fab takes 3-5 years minimum. Micron's new factory in Idaho won't meaningfully increase supply until 2027 at the earliest. By then, AI demand will have grown even more. Memory makers are already selling their 2027 AND 2028 capacity to AI customers today. There is no supply relief coming. That's why Elon is planning to build Tesla's own "TeraFab," a massive semiconductor plant that makes logic chips, memory, AND packaging all under one roof. He said existing suppliers including TSMC, Samsung, and Micron simply cannot supply Tesla at the levels the company needs. Think about that. One of the richest men in the world, running one of the largest companies on Earth, can't buy enough memory chips. So he's building his own factory. If ELON can't get supply, what chance does everyone else have? The AI revolution has a tax. And YOU'RE paying it. Every dollar Big Tech spends on AI infrastructure drives up the cost of the memory inside your phone, your laptop, your car, your TV, and your gaming console. $650 billion in AI spending this year. 3 companies controlling 90% of the memory supply. And every wafer they allocate to an Nvidia GPU is a wafer denied to the device in your pocket. The AI boom isn't free. You're subsidizing it every time you buy a piece of technology. And the bill just went up like crazy.

Ricardo

567,053 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

$MU CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said Micron can only supply ~60% of what key customers are requesting as AI demand creates an unprecedented memory shortage. Every wafer shifted into HBM can cost ~3x the standard DRAM output and demand keeps rising because inference, agents, robotics and autonomous systems are all memory-bandwidth-bound. Memory fab capacity takes three to five years to build so the shortage Mehrotra is describing today could define the supply curve for the rest of the decade.

$MU CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said Micron can only supply ~60% of what key customers are requesting as AI demand creates an unprecedented memory shortage. Every wafer shifted into HBM can cost ~3x the standard DRAM output and demand keeps rising because inference, agents, robotics and autonomous systems are all memory-bandwidth-bound. Memory fab capacity takes three to five years to build so the shortage Mehrotra is describing today could define the supply curve for the rest of the decade.

Shay Boloor

124,980 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Micron is going to be a $4,000 stock and the CEO just told you exactly why in one interview (Save this). Micron is no longer a chip company but rather a America's monopoly on the most strategically critical material in the AI buildout. It's the only western company manufacturing memory at advanced nodes, sitting on $200 billion in committed domestic capex, with every unit of its highest value product already sold. let's start with the supply reality, Mehrotra said Micron can currently meet only 50% to two thirds of the demand from its key customers. That shortage will last well beyond 2027, and meaningful new supply from anyone in the industry does not arrive until 2028 at the earliest. Two more years of demand outpacing supply in a market growing 168% year over year and that is the floor on the bull case. Now layer on what makes this cycle structurally different from every one before it. Micron is the only American memory manufacturer on earth, Samsung and SK Hynix are South Korean. In a world where AI infrastructure has become a declared national security priority where Commerce Secretary Lutnick and Trade Ambassador Greer personally showed up to a fab dedication in Manassas, Virginia being the only US memory company is not just a competitive advantage. It is a government backed structural monopoly on the most critical input to the US AI buildout, backed by $6.2 billion in CHIPS Act subsidies across Idaho, New York, and Virginia. The $200 billion buildout spans Manassas for DDR4 defense and industrial memory, Boise for leading-edge DRAM with first wafers out mid 2027, a second Boise HBM fab with first wafers by end of 2028, and the Syracuse megafab, the largest semiconductor facility in US history, breaking ground January 2026 with up to four fabs over time. Combined, these sites take Micron's domestic production from 10% of its total output today to 40% over the next decade, and create 90,000 jobs in the process. The business model transformation is the real story. Come join Milk Road Pro for our full breakdown, our complete Micron valuation model incorporating the $200 billion domestic buildout and our entire AI thesis. Link below.

Micron is going to be a $4,000 stock and the CEO just told you exactly why in one interview (Save this). Micron is no longer a chip company but rather a America's monopoly on the most strategically critical material in the AI buildout. It's the only western company manufacturing memory at advanced nodes, sitting on $200 billion in committed domestic capex, with every unit of its highest value product already sold. let's start with the supply reality, Mehrotra said Micron can currently meet only 50% to two thirds of the demand from its key customers. That shortage will last well beyond 2027, and meaningful new supply from anyone in the industry does not arrive until 2028 at the earliest. Two more years of demand outpacing supply in a market growing 168% year over year and that is the floor on the bull case. Now layer on what makes this cycle structurally different from every one before it. Micron is the only American memory manufacturer on earth, Samsung and SK Hynix are South Korean. In a world where AI infrastructure has become a declared national security priority where Commerce Secretary Lutnick and Trade Ambassador Greer personally showed up to a fab dedication in Manassas, Virginia being the only US memory company is not just a competitive advantage. It is a government backed structural monopoly on the most critical input to the US AI buildout, backed by $6.2 billion in CHIPS Act subsidies across Idaho, New York, and Virginia. The $200 billion buildout spans Manassas for DDR4 defense and industrial memory, Boise for leading-edge DRAM with first wafers out mid 2027, a second Boise HBM fab with first wafers by end of 2028, and the Syracuse megafab, the largest semiconductor facility in US history, breaking ground January 2026 with up to four fabs over time. Combined, these sites take Micron's domestic production from 10% of its total output today to 40% over the next decade, and create 90,000 jobs in the process. The business model transformation is the real story. Come join Milk Road Pro for our full breakdown, our complete Micron valuation model incorporating the $200 billion domestic buildout and our entire AI thesis. Link below.

Milk Road AI

231,528 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨 SOUTH KOREA’S AI BUBBLE IS BREAKING DOWN. The KOSPI just crashed nearly 7%, wiping out roughly ₩580 TRILLION ($350 BILLION) from Korean stocks in a single session. Samsung and SK Hynix, the two companies that helped drive Korea’s AI mania, are now leading the collapse. And the leverage is making it even worse. KORU, the 3x leveraged Korea ETF, is down almost 23%, creating forced selling and accelerating the liquidation spiral across the market.

🚨 SOUTH KOREA’S AI BUBBLE IS BREAKING DOWN. The KOSPI just crashed nearly 7%, wiping out roughly ₩580 TRILLION ($350 BILLION) from Korean stocks in a single session. Samsung and SK Hynix, the two companies that helped drive Korea’s AI mania, are now leading the collapse. And the leverage is making it even worse. KORU, the 3x leveraged Korea ETF, is down almost 23%, creating forced selling and accelerating the liquidation spiral across the market.

Crypto Rover

116,138 Aufrufe • vor 15 Tagen

This investor explains why he holds $MU instead of $SKHY. "These companies are very similar. Their price earnings ratio are similar and their products are similar. They're both benefiting from the AI boom. Everything is fantastic for both companies." So why Micron? As the leading US based memory company, Micron benefits from the CHIPS Act subsidies. This gives Micron direct cash grants of up to $6.1 billion to build new factories. All this subsidy money has supported Micron's big projects in New York, Idaho and Virginia. Along with this, Micron continues to get tax credits and state-level help. Targeting to invest $200B-$250B over the next 10+ years, Micron aims to produce 40% of its DRAM chips inside the US. Another reason is that this investor lives in the United States, invests in US markets and has a direct pulse on American companies. Owning Micron means owning common shares he can vote with direct ownership on a US exchange. There is no geopolitical risk from Korea, no currency exchange risk, and no layers of ADR structure between him and the underlying business. His threshold for switching would be a significant valuation discount in SK Hynix that compensated for those additional risks. It is a simple framework and it is probably the right one for most American investors who are not running a global macro fund. Our analysts at Milk Road PRO hold $MU & SK Hynix. They have been in the memory trade since before the big runs. Get access to their exact portfolios for $1. Link below.

This investor explains why he holds $MU instead of $SKHY. "These companies are very similar. Their price earnings ratio are similar and their products are similar. They're both benefiting from the AI boom. Everything is fantastic for both companies." So why Micron? As the leading US based memory company, Micron benefits from the CHIPS Act subsidies. This gives Micron direct cash grants of up to $6.1 billion to build new factories. All this subsidy money has supported Micron's big projects in New York, Idaho and Virginia. Along with this, Micron continues to get tax credits and state-level help. Targeting to invest $200B-$250B over the next 10+ years, Micron aims to produce 40% of its DRAM chips inside the US. Another reason is that this investor lives in the United States, invests in US markets and has a direct pulse on American companies. Owning Micron means owning common shares he can vote with direct ownership on a US exchange. There is no geopolitical risk from Korea, no currency exchange risk, and no layers of ADR structure between him and the underlying business. His threshold for switching would be a significant valuation discount in SK Hynix that compensated for those additional risks. It is a simple framework and it is probably the right one for most American investors who are not running a global macro fund. Our analysts at Milk Road PRO hold $MU & SK Hynix. They have been in the memory trade since before the big runs. Get access to their exact portfolios for $1. Link below.

Milk Road Macro

22,765 Aufrufe • vor 1 Tag

$MU hit a $1T valuation today because the market is waking up to the idea that memory may actually become one of the core infrastructure layers of the AI economy. The catalyst was SK Hynix unveiling iHBM which is a new cooling technology for next-gen HBM but the bigger point is that token growth, AI factories, inference demand & next-gen accelerators all require more HBM per system. More HBM per accelerator means more memory dollar content & with only three major HBM suppliers in the world the entire memory complex is getting re-rated.

$MU hit a $1T valuation today because the market is waking up to the idea that memory may actually become one of the core infrastructure layers of the AI economy. The catalyst was SK Hynix unveiling iHBM which is a new cooling technology for next-gen HBM but the bigger point is that token growth, AI factories, inference demand & next-gen accelerators all require more HBM per system. More HBM per accelerator means more memory dollar content & with only three major HBM suppliers in the world the entire memory complex is getting re-rated.

Shay Boloor

306,107 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

The semiconductor memory cycle has a timing problem. Sell-side consensus models for the DRAM supply-demand inflection largely ignore yield ramp realities, HBM wafer diversion, and the structural lag between capacity announcements and actual bit output. The gap between when the street expects the turn and when it actually arrives is where the trade lives. That timing gap is precisely what this Play quantifies. It models five supply-demand variables across SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron — producing a probability distribution for when DRAM transitions from shortage to oversupply, not a single date. Here's what the Play covers: Inflection Probability Timeline The model produces a quarter-by-quarter cumulative probability curve for when supply-demand balance tips. Rather than anchoring on one date, it shows the full distribution — helping investors identify where consensus positioning diverges from modeled likelihood. Supplier Capacity Tracker Each of the three major DRAM producers carries different expansion timelines, yield curves, and long-term agreement lock ratios. SK Hynix leads on yield and speed; Samsung carries the largest absolute capacity delta but with slower ramp; Micron's Idaho fab represents a significant future supply addition. The Play tracks each supplier's effective supply contribution quarter by quarter. Scenario Analysis Four distinct scenarios — ranging from aggressive capacity ramp to prolonged supply tightness — allow investors to stress-test positioning under materially different industry conditions. Each scenario adjusts multiple variables simultaneously to capture how correlated shifts in demand and supply interact. Sensitivity Tornado Ten independent variables are ranked by their impact on inflection timing. Initial days-of-inventory dominates the total swing. HBM bit demand growth and wafer diversion ratio follow. The tornado chart makes clear which assumptions to monitor — and which are noise. DRAM Memory Inflection is now live on FUNDA for all subscribers.

The semiconductor memory cycle has a timing problem. Sell-side consensus models for the DRAM supply-demand inflection largely ignore yield ramp realities, HBM wafer diversion, and the structural lag between capacity announcements and actual bit output. The gap between when the street expects the turn and when it actually arrives is where the trade lives. That timing gap is precisely what this Play quantifies. It models five supply-demand variables across SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron — producing a probability distribution for when DRAM transitions from shortage to oversupply, not a single date. Here's what the Play covers: Inflection Probability Timeline The model produces a quarter-by-quarter cumulative probability curve for when supply-demand balance tips. Rather than anchoring on one date, it shows the full distribution — helping investors identify where consensus positioning diverges from modeled likelihood. Supplier Capacity Tracker Each of the three major DRAM producers carries different expansion timelines, yield curves, and long-term agreement lock ratios. SK Hynix leads on yield and speed; Samsung carries the largest absolute capacity delta but with slower ramp; Micron's Idaho fab represents a significant future supply addition. The Play tracks each supplier's effective supply contribution quarter by quarter. Scenario Analysis Four distinct scenarios — ranging from aggressive capacity ramp to prolonged supply tightness — allow investors to stress-test positioning under materially different industry conditions. Each scenario adjusts multiple variables simultaneously to capture how correlated shifts in demand and supply interact. Sensitivity Tornado Ten independent variables are ranked by their impact on inflection timing. Initial days-of-inventory dominates the total swing. HBM bit demand growth and wafer diversion ratio follow. The tornado chart makes clear which assumptions to monitor — and which are noise. DRAM Memory Inflection is now live on FUNDA for all subscribers.

FUNDA

13,076 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

The CEO of the world's largest asset manager just said something that should reframe how every investor thinks about the AI trade. Larry Fink, managing $11.5 trillion at BlackRock, stood at the Milken Institute Global Conference and said four words that matter, "We just don't have enough compute." "The United States is short power. We're short compute. We're short chips. And there's going to be shortages in all three and memory, four things. I actually believe a new asset class will be buying futures of compute." Think about what that means. Fink is predicting that compute becomes a tradable commodity like oil, like grain, like natural gas where investors buy forward contracts on future capacity because the shortage is so structural and so predictable that a derivatives market will emerge to price it. That is not a minor observation from a finance executive but rather the chairman of the most powerful capital allocator on the planet telling you that compute scarcity is a multi-year, investable megatrend. The data backs him up completely. Data centers will consume 70% of all memory chips produced globally in 2026. Advanced HBM production from Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron is sold out through 2026 and into 2027 and a single AI server consumes 10-20x more memory than a conventional workload server. DRAM supply growth is running at just 16% annually while AI infrastructure demand is growing at 80%+. The chip crunch, the power crunch, and the compute crunch are not temporary dislocations, they are structural, and they will get worse before they get better. Fink also said something the bears keep getting wrong: "There is not an AI bubble. There is the opposite. We have supply shortages. Demand is growing much faster than anyone has ever anticipated." This is why the Milk Road Pro portfolio is built the way it is, long the companies producing and supplying the constrained resources: chips, memory, compute infrastructure, and power. Check out Milk Road Pro, link below to access our full thesis and plays.

The CEO of the world's largest asset manager just said something that should reframe how every investor thinks about the AI trade. Larry Fink, managing $11.5 trillion at BlackRock, stood at the Milken Institute Global Conference and said four words that matter, "We just don't have enough compute." "The United States is short power. We're short compute. We're short chips. And there's going to be shortages in all three and memory, four things. I actually believe a new asset class will be buying futures of compute." Think about what that means. Fink is predicting that compute becomes a tradable commodity like oil, like grain, like natural gas where investors buy forward contracts on future capacity because the shortage is so structural and so predictable that a derivatives market will emerge to price it. That is not a minor observation from a finance executive but rather the chairman of the most powerful capital allocator on the planet telling you that compute scarcity is a multi-year, investable megatrend. The data backs him up completely. Data centers will consume 70% of all memory chips produced globally in 2026. Advanced HBM production from Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron is sold out through 2026 and into 2027 and a single AI server consumes 10-20x more memory than a conventional workload server. DRAM supply growth is running at just 16% annually while AI infrastructure demand is growing at 80%+. The chip crunch, the power crunch, and the compute crunch are not temporary dislocations, they are structural, and they will get worse before they get better. Fink also said something the bears keep getting wrong: "There is not an AI bubble. There is the opposite. We have supply shortages. Demand is growing much faster than anyone has ever anticipated." This is why the Milk Road Pro portfolio is built the way it is, long the companies producing and supplying the constrained resources: chips, memory, compute infrastructure, and power. Check out Milk Road Pro, link below to access our full thesis and plays.

Milk Road AI

419,062 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten