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My entire Polymarket strategy right now is Ctrl+C on a wallet making $20K a month and Ctrl+V on my account. Yeah. I know how that sounds. 6 months ago I would have closed the chat on anyone who said this. Probably blocked them too. But here is where I... am: last month, +$2,700. Trading decisions I made: 0. For context, my best month of manual trading was $580. And that took 3-4 hours a day. Let me back up. For 6 months I was a "real trader." Charts on 2 monitors. 3 Discord alpha groups. NOAA weather data at 2 AM because someone said temperature markets were free money. Spreadsheets tracking 40 wallets. Every thread read. An opinion on every market. Average month: somewhere between $400 and "I would rather not say." I was very busy. Just not very profitable. Then something clicked. Not an insight about markets. An insight about me. The wallets I was tracking, the ones pulling $15K-$30K a month, had data pipelines, sub-second execution, and models I could not replicate in a year of trying. I was not competing with other retail traders. I was competing with infrastructure. You do not outrun a car. You get in the car. So I stopped. Stopped picking markets. Stopped reading forecasts. Stopped setting 3 AM alarms for data drops. Found 3 wallets with 90+ day track records and consistent returns. Not the flashy ones posting $3M screenshots on Twitter. The boring ones pulling 4-6% weekly on liquid markets. Connected automatic copying. 1 evening. Maybe 15 minutes of actual setup. That was 5 weeks ago. 1st week I checked the dashboard every 2 hours. Old habits. 2nd week, once a day. Now I check maybe every 5 or 6 days. Trades execute on their own. I do not choose markets. I do not analyze odds. I do not decide position sizes. 5 weeks in: +$3,100 total. Same capital that would have made me $300-400 doing it manually. Same money. Different operator. Or rather, no operator. I did not make a single trading decision. That was the whole point. The logic is short: top wallets have speed, data, and execution you and I will never have. You can not beat them. But you can stand next to them and do exactly what they do, at roughly the same time, in the same markets. The tool I use: PMX 1 evening. 15 minutes. 0 decisions since: 6 months of charts taught me less than 1 evening of copying. Turns out the smartest move in trading is not trading at all.show more

Blaze

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48,476 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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Last Thursday I was having dinner with a friend at a regular shawarma spot near the subway. A guy he knew was sitting with us. Around 21, maybe 22. Hoodie, AirPods, beat-up backpack When the check came he grabbed it without a word. No discussion. Just tapped his phone and paid for all 3 of us My friend was not even surprised. Apparently this was not the first time I asked: what do you do? He said: "I copy wallets on Polymarket" I thought it was a joke. Or some trading guru with a $500 course But he explained it simpler than I expected "On Polymarket there are wallets that are consistently in profit. Not on 1 bet but on dozens in a row. I do not try to guess who wins the election or what the weather will be in Dallas. I just look at what a wallet with a 70+ win rate is doing and repeat it" He did not build models. Did not write scripts. Did not analyze news He opened Telegram and showed me a channel. Simple messages: wallet X entered position Y, price Z cents, market such and such Then he opened Polymarket and showed me his balance I am not going to name the exact number because he did not ask for that. But I will say this: it is enough for a guy in a rented apartment with 3 roommates to casually pay for dinner for 3 and not think twice I asked: "How did you figure out which wallet to follow?" He shrugged "That is the easiest part. Polymarket is blockchain. All trades are open. You go to the leaderboard, filter by win rate, look at history. If a wallet consistently enters positions at 3 to 8 cents and closes at a dollar that is not luck. That is an information edge" Then he added something that made me freeze "The funniest part is I do not even need to understand why he bets. I do not know where he gets his information. Maybe he is an insider. Maybe he has a model. Maybe he just reads news faster. I do not care. I see that he entered and I enter a minute later. The price usually has not moved yet" I came home and could not fall asleep Opened Polymarket. Went to the leaderboard. Started digging An hour later I found the wallet he was talking about → Starting balance was negative. Current balance is a 5-figure number. Win rate above 73%. Average entry 4 to 7 cents. Average win covers 10 to 15 losses I started monitoring it manually. Set alarms. Checked every 2 hours By day 3 I realized I cannot live like this I needed the same thing that guy had. A signal in Telegram that comes on its own the moment the wallet opens a position I found a bot that does exactly that → No delays. No manual monitoring. Wallet enters and you get a notification What you do with it is up to you. Copy it exactly, use it as a signal, or just observe 2 weeks have passed. I have not become that guy from the shawarma spot. Yet But I stopped guessing. And started copying Right now somewhere a smart wallet is opening a new position. The question is whether you find out about it in a second or in 24 hours when the price has already moved

Last Thursday I was having dinner with a friend at a regular shawarma spot near the subway. A guy he knew was sitting with us. Around 21, maybe 22. Hoodie, AirPods, beat-up backpack When the check came he grabbed it without a word. No discussion. Just tapped his phone and paid for all 3 of us My friend was not even surprised. Apparently this was not the first time I asked: what do you do? He said: "I copy wallets on Polymarket" I thought it was a joke. Or some trading guru with a $500 course But he explained it simpler than I expected "On Polymarket there are wallets that are consistently in profit. Not on 1 bet but on dozens in a row. I do not try to guess who wins the election or what the weather will be in Dallas. I just look at what a wallet with a 70+ win rate is doing and repeat it" He did not build models. Did not write scripts. Did not analyze news He opened Telegram and showed me a channel. Simple messages: wallet X entered position Y, price Z cents, market such and such Then he opened Polymarket and showed me his balance I am not going to name the exact number because he did not ask for that. But I will say this: it is enough for a guy in a rented apartment with 3 roommates to casually pay for dinner for 3 and not think twice I asked: "How did you figure out which wallet to follow?" He shrugged "That is the easiest part. Polymarket is blockchain. All trades are open. You go to the leaderboard, filter by win rate, look at history. If a wallet consistently enters positions at 3 to 8 cents and closes at a dollar that is not luck. That is an information edge" Then he added something that made me freeze "The funniest part is I do not even need to understand why he bets. I do not know where he gets his information. Maybe he is an insider. Maybe he has a model. Maybe he just reads news faster. I do not care. I see that he entered and I enter a minute later. The price usually has not moved yet" I came home and could not fall asleep Opened Polymarket. Went to the leaderboard. Started digging An hour later I found the wallet he was talking about → Starting balance was negative. Current balance is a 5-figure number. Win rate above 73%. Average entry 4 to 7 cents. Average win covers 10 to 15 losses I started monitoring it manually. Set alarms. Checked every 2 hours By day 3 I realized I cannot live like this I needed the same thing that guy had. A signal in Telegram that comes on its own the moment the wallet opens a position I found a bot that does exactly that → No delays. No manual monitoring. Wallet enters and you get a notification What you do with it is up to you. Copy it exactly, use it as a signal, or just observe 2 weeks have passed. I have not become that guy from the shawarma spot. Yet But I stopped guessing. And started copying Right now somewhere a smart wallet is opening a new position. The question is whether you find out about it in a second or in 24 hours when the price has already moved

Blaze

122,875 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

I deleted all my Polymarket positions at 2am on a Tuesday because I realized I was winning 54% of my bets and still down $11,400. It took me three weeks to understand that sentence. Fifty four percent wins. Why is the balance shrinking? The math was brutal once I finally saw it. I was buying outcomes at 55 to 65 cents feeling smart because my picks kept winning. But the payout at those prices was so thin that one loss wiped out five wins. My edge was maybe 3% and the spread was eating 4%. I dug into the data hoping to find a way to trade better and instead found a number that made me want to close the app. 70% of all Polymarket addresses are in the red. And the profits? Captured by 0.04% of wallets. Four thousand addresses out of 1.7 million own almost everything. I was playing a game where 96% of participants exist to fund the other 4%. But the trades of those wallets are public. Every entry, every exit, sitting on the blockchain. I started tracking them manually. One wallet broke me. It started January 6 with $50. By the time I found it the balance was close to $500,000. Pulling $20 to $30K a day on 15 minute BTC, ETH and SOL markets, exploiting the fact that Binance updates faster than Polymarket odds. A few seconds of lag, hundreds of times a day. I scrolled its history for an hour trying to find a losing streak. Could not. That is when I stopped doing this by hand. Set up PMX. Alerts the second a tracked wallet moves, one tap copy. → Link to bot: Three weeks of shadowing instead of trading. Made back $4,200 of my $11,400 hole. Not because I got smarter. Because I stopped pretending I was the edge. The game on Polymarket is not about being right. It is about standing behind someone who already is. I am still not in profit. But for the first time in four months my balance moves the right direction and I sleep through the night. That is worth more than any win.

I deleted all my Polymarket positions at 2am on a Tuesday because I realized I was winning 54% of my bets and still down $11,400. It took me three weeks to understand that sentence. Fifty four percent wins. Why is the balance shrinking? The math was brutal once I finally saw it. I was buying outcomes at 55 to 65 cents feeling smart because my picks kept winning. But the payout at those prices was so thin that one loss wiped out five wins. My edge was maybe 3% and the spread was eating 4%. I dug into the data hoping to find a way to trade better and instead found a number that made me want to close the app. 70% of all Polymarket addresses are in the red. And the profits? Captured by 0.04% of wallets. Four thousand addresses out of 1.7 million own almost everything. I was playing a game where 96% of participants exist to fund the other 4%. But the trades of those wallets are public. Every entry, every exit, sitting on the blockchain. I started tracking them manually. One wallet broke me. It started January 6 with $50. By the time I found it the balance was close to $500,000. Pulling $20 to $30K a day on 15 minute BTC, ETH and SOL markets, exploiting the fact that Binance updates faster than Polymarket odds. A few seconds of lag, hundreds of times a day. I scrolled its history for an hour trying to find a losing streak. Could not. That is when I stopped doing this by hand. Set up PMX. Alerts the second a tracked wallet moves, one tap copy. → Link to bot: Three weeks of shadowing instead of trading. Made back $4,200 of my $11,400 hole. Not because I got smarter. Because I stopped pretending I was the edge. The game on Polymarket is not about being right. It is about standing behind someone who already is. I am still not in profit. But for the first time in four months my balance moves the right direction and I sleep through the night. That is worth more than any win.

Blaze

13,874 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

In 2026 there are 3 types of people left on Polymarket. I have been all 3 and only one of them stopped losing money. Type 1: programmers. They write bots, make $11K to $120K a month. They are 2% of the platform. I tried to become one of them. Lasted two weeks and one broken script. Type 2: people who found type 1 and copy their trades. No code, no servers, no sleepless nights. They are 5%. Type 3: everyone else. Trading by hand, trusting their gut, and steadily handing money to the first two types. They are 93%. I sat here for 4 months and lost $1,800. The most frustrating part is that all the information is right there. The blockchain shows every trade from every wallet. I stared at it for 4 months and kept trading on my own. To become type 1 you need months of coding. To become type 2 you need to stop believing you are special. The team at PMX built a tool that copies the best wallets automatically: I did not get smarter. I just stopped being type 3.

In 2026 there are 3 types of people left on Polymarket. I have been all 3 and only one of them stopped losing money. Type 1: programmers. They write bots, make $11K to $120K a month. They are 2% of the platform. I tried to become one of them. Lasted two weeks and one broken script. Type 2: people who found type 1 and copy their trades. No code, no servers, no sleepless nights. They are 5%. Type 3: everyone else. Trading by hand, trusting their gut, and steadily handing money to the first two types. They are 93%. I sat here for 4 months and lost $1,800. The most frustrating part is that all the information is right there. The blockchain shows every trade from every wallet. I stared at it for 4 months and kept trading on my own. To become type 1 you need months of coding. To become type 2 you need to stop believing you are special. The team at PMX built a tool that copies the best wallets automatically: I did not get smarter. I just stopped being type 3.

Blaze

22,760 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

For 6 months I woke up at 5 AM to catch Asian markets on Polymarket. During that time I lost my girlfriend, gained 8 kg, and got used to drinking coffee instead of breakfast Then I wrote an agent that monitors everything for me while I sleep. In the 1st month income went up 15% and I finally deleted the 5 AM alarm Turns out a half-asleep human trades worse than a 200-line script I thought discipline meant waking up early. In reality it was just stubbornness that cost me money and health. When I finally sat down to build the agent it became clear why Here is what is under the hood: 1. Sentiment analysis powered by Claude. Every 15 minutes the agent runs a feed from 40+ Asian sources: Reuters Asia, Nikkei, South China Morning Post, Yonhap 2. NLP tone classification. It compares sentiment shifts to open markets on Polymarket through the API, and if the news has already dropped but the odds have not reacted yet that is the entry window 3. Kelly criterion. A mathematical formula for position sizing instead of my usual "I will bet more, feeling lucky" 4. A hard stop at 5% of the deposit per trade so that 1 mistake cannot kill the entire account 5. A cooldown between entries so the agent does not stack up a cluster of correlated positions These are exactly the rules I was missing at 5 AM. I knew them perfectly well but consistently ignored them because on adrenaline and caffeine every bet felt like an "obvious opportunity" When I ran a backtest on my old trades it was genuinely painful: 60% of the bets I placed by hand in a half-asleep state would have been rejected by the agent for failing the expected value filter Those were the exact ones dragging the whole result down When I was building my agent I needed a benchmark. A wallet that already trades on similar logic so I could compare my results to someone else's Found 1 that works almost like a mirror of what I described: same Asian markets, same cold calculation without emotion. I still keep it bookmarked and periodically check how it handles the same situations: That is actually the wallet I started with when testing auto-copying through a bot before I launched my own agent. A useful thing if you want to see how a strategy works on someone else's example first and only then build your own:

For 6 months I woke up at 5 AM to catch Asian markets on Polymarket. During that time I lost my girlfriend, gained 8 kg, and got used to drinking coffee instead of breakfast Then I wrote an agent that monitors everything for me while I sleep. In the 1st month income went up 15% and I finally deleted the 5 AM alarm Turns out a half-asleep human trades worse than a 200-line script I thought discipline meant waking up early. In reality it was just stubbornness that cost me money and health. When I finally sat down to build the agent it became clear why Here is what is under the hood: 1. Sentiment analysis powered by Claude. Every 15 minutes the agent runs a feed from 40+ Asian sources: Reuters Asia, Nikkei, South China Morning Post, Yonhap 2. NLP tone classification. It compares sentiment shifts to open markets on Polymarket through the API, and if the news has already dropped but the odds have not reacted yet that is the entry window 3. Kelly criterion. A mathematical formula for position sizing instead of my usual "I will bet more, feeling lucky" 4. A hard stop at 5% of the deposit per trade so that 1 mistake cannot kill the entire account 5. A cooldown between entries so the agent does not stack up a cluster of correlated positions These are exactly the rules I was missing at 5 AM. I knew them perfectly well but consistently ignored them because on adrenaline and caffeine every bet felt like an "obvious opportunity" When I ran a backtest on my old trades it was genuinely painful: 60% of the bets I placed by hand in a half-asleep state would have been rejected by the agent for failing the expected value filter Those were the exact ones dragging the whole result down When I was building my agent I needed a benchmark. A wallet that already trades on similar logic so I could compare my results to someone else's Found 1 that works almost like a mirror of what I described: same Asian markets, same cold calculation without emotion. I still keep it bookmarked and periodically check how it handles the same situations: That is actually the wallet I started with when testing auto-copying through a bot before I launched my own agent. A useful thing if you want to see how a strategy works on someone else's example first and only then build your own:

Blaze

126,979 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

here we go again. It’s a pretty common theme to attack me and discredit everything I do, regardless of what I share to prove otherwise. Why? Because it gains traction for all the influencers. i wanted to address the “paper trading” allegations on X, but before i do i want to point out that the ones capitalizing on the engagement are the same ones who have flip flopped their narrative on me again and again. the same people saying i’m a paper trader suddenly decide my trading is real when im losing or in drawdown. whatever positioning gets them the most engagement is the narrative they run with. I’ve been trading for 11 years now and have a longer track record than most in this space. If you go back and watch my YouTube videos you’ll see my broker statements presented. I can appreciate healthy skepticism and will continue to show the statements to those it benefits. Now let’s address the paper trading allegation. A video is floating around that I posted where you see “paper trading” on my screen. Yes, I had paper trading open. But why is the first assumption that I’m a paper trader? Am I not allowed to open paper trading? If I do, I’m immediately a paper trader? That window was open because I tell everyone in my community to paper trade first and I walk them through how to do it. See the attached video that I recorded for my community where you can clearly see paper trading open while I’m walking them through TradingView paper trading. Now let’s assume I’m lying about that and people still want to call me a paper trader simply because I had paper trading open while teaching my community. That would mean I don’t trade real money and that I’m not profitable. Well I’ve posted my broker statements for the last four years, all on YouTube. See attached. Let’s also address my recent trade where I made $18k. When I posted it, people on X said it was fake and that it was paper trading because of certain settings. Here is the attached order ID number for that trade. I’m up $57k this year so far and I’ve stopped sharing trades and updates with the trading community because regardless of whether I share or not, people will continue to come at me because it gets views. All items are attached below. I’ll make a YouTube video soon to address this as well. But give it a break at this point.

here we go again. It’s a pretty common theme to attack me and discredit everything I do, regardless of what I share to prove otherwise. Why? Because it gains traction for all the influencers. i wanted to address the “paper trading” allegations on X, but before i do i want to point out that the ones capitalizing on the engagement are the same ones who have flip flopped their narrative on me again and again. the same people saying i’m a paper trader suddenly decide my trading is real when im losing or in drawdown. whatever positioning gets them the most engagement is the narrative they run with. I’ve been trading for 11 years now and have a longer track record than most in this space. If you go back and watch my YouTube videos you’ll see my broker statements presented. I can appreciate healthy skepticism and will continue to show the statements to those it benefits. Now let’s address the paper trading allegation. A video is floating around that I posted where you see “paper trading” on my screen. Yes, I had paper trading open. But why is the first assumption that I’m a paper trader? Am I not allowed to open paper trading? If I do, I’m immediately a paper trader? That window was open because I tell everyone in my community to paper trade first and I walk them through how to do it. See the attached video that I recorded for my community where you can clearly see paper trading open while I’m walking them through TradingView paper trading. Now let’s assume I’m lying about that and people still want to call me a paper trader simply because I had paper trading open while teaching my community. That would mean I don’t trade real money and that I’m not profitable. Well I’ve posted my broker statements for the last four years, all on YouTube. See attached. Let’s also address my recent trade where I made $18k. When I posted it, people on X said it was fake and that it was paper trading because of certain settings. Here is the attached order ID number for that trade. I’m up $57k this year so far and I’ve stopped sharing trades and updates with the trading community because regardless of whether I share or not, people will continue to come at me because it gets views. All items are attached below. I’ll make a YouTube video soon to address this as well. But give it a break at this point.

Tori 💜

460,457 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

Quoting this because it deserves some attention. Trading is not a personality contest. It is not conviction. It is not being permanently bullish or permanently bearish and waiting to be right. It is adaptability. For the record: I am up over 200% this year. A year where retail is bleeding and most managers are probably underperforming a savings account. Not because I am smarter. Because I am fluid. I use data, I interpret it, and I act on it. When the data changes, I change. If you cannot do that, you will not survive this game. I will walk through the data in the thread below... and discuss why I believe we hit highs in early September. Then chop. Then face an October selloff... If the read changes, so will I. That is the entire point. 🧵

Quoting this because it deserves some attention. Trading is not a personality contest. It is not conviction. It is not being permanently bullish or permanently bearish and waiting to be right. It is adaptability. For the record: I am up over 200% this year. A year where retail is bleeding and most managers are probably underperforming a savings account. Not because I am smarter. Because I am fluid. I use data, I interpret it, and I act on it. When the data changes, I change. If you cannot do that, you will not survive this game. I will walk through the data in the thread below... and discuss why I believe we hit highs in early September. Then chop. Then face an October selloff... If the read changes, so will I. That is the entire point. 🧵

Deep Inference

11,453 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

AUTOMATE POLYMARKET BOT WITH CLAUDE! Now, since Claude can control your computer, things are changing fast, so I decided to try a few strategies I said, Claude: "Research for the best options to profit through Polymarket using my PC" He said that simple trading is basically gambling, you can also build a bot that arbitrages, trades, etc., but it takes ~months Then he said, "Copytrading." So I asked him to fetch wallets that I can copytrade and how I can copytrade them, what is the strategy Couple of hours and I had a running monitoring bot that fetched wallets and filtered them by: - PnL - Markets they are trading - Trades a day - Position size - Portfolio size - Strategy of trading Based on that, I asked him to consider options of copytrading, fixed amount, % of portfolio, or same risk management, what slippage He gave me 2 wallets that traded 5-15 min markets and said: "These wallets will be profitable for copytrading using: 5% slippage, one of them with a fixed amount, another with RM 1x ratio copytrading" Since these wallets didn't have a large portfolio, it really worked and it started copytrading using this TG bot Bot: It's ~1 hour since copytrading started and so far I have not made much profit, but testing looks great and Claude decided to test only for 20 trades/per day, firstly Make sure to follow me and turn notifs on, will share with you the rest of the journey here and continue finding new strategies

AUTOMATE POLYMARKET BOT WITH CLAUDE! Now, since Claude can control your computer, things are changing fast, so I decided to try a few strategies I said, Claude: "Research for the best options to profit through Polymarket using my PC" He said that simple trading is basically gambling, you can also build a bot that arbitrages, trades, etc., but it takes ~months Then he said, "Copytrading." So I asked him to fetch wallets that I can copytrade and how I can copytrade them, what is the strategy Couple of hours and I had a running monitoring bot that fetched wallets and filtered them by: - PnL - Markets they are trading - Trades a day - Position size - Portfolio size - Strategy of trading Based on that, I asked him to consider options of copytrading, fixed amount, % of portfolio, or same risk management, what slippage He gave me 2 wallets that traded 5-15 min markets and said: "These wallets will be profitable for copytrading using: 5% slippage, one of them with a fixed amount, another with RM 1x ratio copytrading" Since these wallets didn't have a large portfolio, it really worked and it started copytrading using this TG bot Bot: It's ~1 hour since copytrading started and so far I have not made much profit, but testing looks great and Claude decided to test only for 20 trades/per day, firstly Make sure to follow me and turn notifs on, will share with you the rest of the journey here and continue finding new strategies

symbiote

44,193 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

My Prediction Market Tools list + Trading Workflow A) Tools I use: - Betmoar: Filtering + Analysing specific smart money wallets - Hashdive: Spotting volume and OI changes + whale flows - Polymarket Analytics: Comparing markets across different Prediction Markets - Polycule: Trading on the go - Polysights: Advanced Metrics related to volatility and trends B) My workflow: 1) I usually trade sports + crypto price prediction markets since I have some kind of expertise there 2) I use Betmoar to filter and find interesting markets. Try to enter new markets as early as possible since there are significant mispricings 3) I then use Hashdive to see what OI changes and whale flows are like for a particular market 4) Polymarket Analytics to compare markets across PM and Kalshi to see where I can get the best price 5) Trade directly through PM and Kalshi for now to execute if im on my laptop and Polycule when I'm not 6) I also check in daily on smart money wallets I follow on BetMoar to see if they've made any interesting trades recently I don't focus on Arbitrage, LPing or delta-neutral trades at all. Prefer to either take directional trades where I have an information edge or I'm early Sometimes I'll 'gamble' on sports markets because it's fun C) Takeaways for you: - Only trade in markets you have in-depth knowledge/edge - Being early is lucrative in prediction markets - Pro tools can save you hours trying to find alpha - Don't use too many tools. Use a few and master them instead - Everyone has their own process. Don't copy mine it won't work for you. The point of this tweet was to educate you on how you can build your own process LMK if there's any other useful tools I should check out that could optimise my workflow further!

My Prediction Market Tools list + Trading Workflow A) Tools I use: - Betmoar: Filtering + Analysing specific smart money wallets - Hashdive: Spotting volume and OI changes + whale flows - Polymarket Analytics: Comparing markets across different Prediction Markets - Polycule: Trading on the go - Polysights: Advanced Metrics related to volatility and trends B) My workflow: 1) I usually trade sports + crypto price prediction markets since I have some kind of expertise there 2) I use Betmoar to filter and find interesting markets. Try to enter new markets as early as possible since there are significant mispricings 3) I then use Hashdive to see what OI changes and whale flows are like for a particular market 4) Polymarket Analytics to compare markets across PM and Kalshi to see where I can get the best price 5) Trade directly through PM and Kalshi for now to execute if im on my laptop and Polycule when I'm not 6) I also check in daily on smart money wallets I follow on BetMoar to see if they've made any interesting trades recently I don't focus on Arbitrage, LPing or delta-neutral trades at all. Prefer to either take directional trades where I have an information edge or I'm early Sometimes I'll 'gamble' on sports markets because it's fun C) Takeaways for you: - Only trade in markets you have in-depth knowledge/edge - Being early is lucrative in prediction markets - Pro tools can save you hours trying to find alpha - Don't use too many tools. Use a few and master them instead - Everyone has their own process. Don't copy mine it won't work for you. The point of this tweet was to educate you on how you can build your own process LMK if there's any other useful tools I should check out that could optimise my workflow further!

Yash Palod

31,761 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

Last night I asked Claude Code to build me a simple script: pull on-chain data from Polymarket and sort wallets by win rate Nothing ambitious. Just wanted to see who is actually making money on 15-minute BTC markets The terminal finished in about 20 minutes. Hundreds of addresses, columns of numbers, nothing interesting And then 1 wallet caught my eye 200+ trades per day, consistent profit every week, almost surgical timing precision. I reread the line 3 times. A real person does not trade like this I fed the address back into Claude Code and asked it to break down the pattern. Half an hour later I had a full strategy reconstruction on my screen The bot (and it is definitely a bot) pings Binance and Bybit every 100ms monitoring volatility compression on BTC. When it drops below 0.08% it enters Up and Down contracts simultaneously at 25 to 35 cents each. A pure straddle. 1 side burns, the other flies to a dollar. At a 30-cent entry that is 3 to 4x per position And so it goes in circles. Dozens of times a day I sat there staring at it for about 10 minutes $13K to $25K in daily profit from a single wallet. Not a trader with intuition, not an insider with information. An algorithm that found a hole in market mechanics and methodically milks it You can check the trade history yourself: After that I went looking for whether anyone else is tracking this wallet. Turns out yes. Found a Telegram bot that tracks wallets like this and copies their trades automatically I connected it to the same address just to see if the entries would match what my terminal was showing. Matched perfectly Still testing on minimum amounts for now: But the fact that you can stand next to an algorithm like this in real time is something that simply did not exist a year ago

Last night I asked Claude Code to build me a simple script: pull on-chain data from Polymarket and sort wallets by win rate Nothing ambitious. Just wanted to see who is actually making money on 15-minute BTC markets The terminal finished in about 20 minutes. Hundreds of addresses, columns of numbers, nothing interesting And then 1 wallet caught my eye 200+ trades per day, consistent profit every week, almost surgical timing precision. I reread the line 3 times. A real person does not trade like this I fed the address back into Claude Code and asked it to break down the pattern. Half an hour later I had a full strategy reconstruction on my screen The bot (and it is definitely a bot) pings Binance and Bybit every 100ms monitoring volatility compression on BTC. When it drops below 0.08% it enters Up and Down contracts simultaneously at 25 to 35 cents each. A pure straddle. 1 side burns, the other flies to a dollar. At a 30-cent entry that is 3 to 4x per position And so it goes in circles. Dozens of times a day I sat there staring at it for about 10 minutes $13K to $25K in daily profit from a single wallet. Not a trader with intuition, not an insider with information. An algorithm that found a hole in market mechanics and methodically milks it You can check the trade history yourself: After that I went looking for whether anyone else is tracking this wallet. Turns out yes. Found a Telegram bot that tracks wallets like this and copies their trades automatically I connected it to the same address just to see if the entries would match what my terminal was showing. Matched perfectly Still testing on minimum amounts for now: But the fact that you can stand next to an algorithm like this in real time is something that simply did not exist a year ago

Blaze

488,672 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

"My wife passed eight months ago. She left me a handwritten list of things she needed me to do after she was gone. Pay the insurance by the 15th. Call her sister on her birthday. Don't skip the doctor. And number 7 — 'Make sure Bruno gets a walk every single morning without exception. He will be the reason you get out of bed. I planned it that way. I love you. Don't argue with the list.'" I argued with the list for about three days. Then I stopped arguing. I have not missed a single morning since. Six months of mornings. Six months of 6:30am. Six months of Bruno waiting at the door with the specific patience of a dog who knows the list says morning and trusts that morning will happen because she said it would. Some mornings I get dressed on autopilot. Some mornings I don't remember deciding to get up. I just find myself at the door with my coat on and Bruno's leash in my hand. She knew. She knew me better than I knew myself and she wrote it down and she signed it don't argue with the list and she was right she was always right she was right about this the way she was right about everything. My son saw us this morning on his run. He called me after. He couldn't finish a sentence. Neither could I. So we just stayed on the phone for a while breathing in each other's ears the way you do when words are not the right size for what you are feeling. She put me on a leash, honestly. Bruno's leash. And I have never been more grateful to be exactly where I am supposed to be at exactly 6:30am on a February morning that I would not have gotten up for on my own. Number 7. She saved me with number 7. Drop a ❤️ for her. She planned everything. Right down to the morning walks. Right down to us.

"My wife passed eight months ago. She left me a handwritten list of things she needed me to do after she was gone. Pay the insurance by the 15th. Call her sister on her birthday. Don't skip the doctor. And number 7 — 'Make sure Bruno gets a walk every single morning without exception. He will be the reason you get out of bed. I planned it that way. I love you. Don't argue with the list.'" I argued with the list for about three days. Then I stopped arguing. I have not missed a single morning since. Six months of mornings. Six months of 6:30am. Six months of Bruno waiting at the door with the specific patience of a dog who knows the list says morning and trusts that morning will happen because she said it would. Some mornings I get dressed on autopilot. Some mornings I don't remember deciding to get up. I just find myself at the door with my coat on and Bruno's leash in my hand. She knew. She knew me better than I knew myself and she wrote it down and she signed it don't argue with the list and she was right she was always right she was right about this the way she was right about everything. My son saw us this morning on his run. He called me after. He couldn't finish a sentence. Neither could I. So we just stayed on the phone for a while breathing in each other's ears the way you do when words are not the right size for what you are feeling. She put me on a leash, honestly. Bruno's leash. And I have never been more grateful to be exactly where I am supposed to be at exactly 6:30am on a February morning that I would not have gotten up for on my own. Number 7. She saved me with number 7. Drop a ❤️ for her. She planned everything. Right down to the morning walks. Right down to us.

Crazy Moments

583,389 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

Yesterday at 3 AM Claude Code called me I woke up, picked up the phone, and on the screen was a message: "Wallet entered BTC Up at 11 cents. Open Polymarket?" I said yes and went back to sleep Claude Code unlocked my 2nd phone on its own, opened Polymarket, found the right market, entered the amount, and hit Buy. I could see all of it in real time through the web interface on my laptop. Screenshots from the phone updating every second. By morning the position closed in profit Let me tell you how I got here A week ago I asked Claude Code to write a script that pulls on-chain data from Polymarket and ranks wallets by win rate on 15-minute BTC markets In 20 minutes I had a table with hundreds of addresses, and 1 of them stood apart from the rest. More than 200 trades per day, surgical entry precision, and a profit curve going straight up I fed that address back into Claude Code and asked it to break down the strategy. Turns out the wallet monitors BTC volatility on Binance and Bybit every 100 milliseconds, and when it drops below 0.08% it enters Up and Down simultaneously at 25 to 35 cents A pure straddle: 1 side burns and the other flies to a dollar, giving 3 to 4x per position. Dozens of times a day I wanted to follow it but signals came at any hour, and waking up every 15 minutes for a notification was simply impossible. So I built something else Took an old Android phone and installed an agent running on the Qwen3-VL visual model. It sees what is happening on the screen and mimics human actions through ADB: taps, swipes, text input. Then I connected it to Claude Code as the executor Now the chain works like this: Claude Code monitors the wallet, sees a new position, calls me. And if I say "yes" or just do not pick up within 30 seconds, the agent on the phone opens Polymarket on its own and copies the entry Essentially I built myself an autopilot out of 2 AI systems: 1 thinks and the other presses buttons. I just sleep and occasionally pick up the phone → Here is the wallet the whole thing is tracking: For those who do not want to build a setup like this there is a Telegram bot that handles the 1st part: tracks this wallet and sends a signal on every new entry: AI calls me at 3 AM to ask permission to spend my money A year ago this would have sounded like schizophrenia. Now it is just Tuesday

Yesterday at 3 AM Claude Code called me I woke up, picked up the phone, and on the screen was a message: "Wallet entered BTC Up at 11 cents. Open Polymarket?" I said yes and went back to sleep Claude Code unlocked my 2nd phone on its own, opened Polymarket, found the right market, entered the amount, and hit Buy. I could see all of it in real time through the web interface on my laptop. Screenshots from the phone updating every second. By morning the position closed in profit Let me tell you how I got here A week ago I asked Claude Code to write a script that pulls on-chain data from Polymarket and ranks wallets by win rate on 15-minute BTC markets In 20 minutes I had a table with hundreds of addresses, and 1 of them stood apart from the rest. More than 200 trades per day, surgical entry precision, and a profit curve going straight up I fed that address back into Claude Code and asked it to break down the strategy. Turns out the wallet monitors BTC volatility on Binance and Bybit every 100 milliseconds, and when it drops below 0.08% it enters Up and Down simultaneously at 25 to 35 cents A pure straddle: 1 side burns and the other flies to a dollar, giving 3 to 4x per position. Dozens of times a day I wanted to follow it but signals came at any hour, and waking up every 15 minutes for a notification was simply impossible. So I built something else Took an old Android phone and installed an agent running on the Qwen3-VL visual model. It sees what is happening on the screen and mimics human actions through ADB: taps, swipes, text input. Then I connected it to Claude Code as the executor Now the chain works like this: Claude Code monitors the wallet, sees a new position, calls me. And if I say "yes" or just do not pick up within 30 seconds, the agent on the phone opens Polymarket on its own and copies the entry Essentially I built myself an autopilot out of 2 AI systems: 1 thinks and the other presses buttons. I just sleep and occasionally pick up the phone → Here is the wallet the whole thing is tracking: For those who do not want to build a setup like this there is a Telegram bot that handles the 1st part: tracks this wallet and sends a signal on every new entry: AI calls me at 3 AM to ask permission to spend my money A year ago this would have sounded like schizophrenia. Now it is just Tuesday

Blaze

56,524 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

i was throwing $300 a month at tools that would die on me right when i needed them most. then this video showed up in my feed. a guy. a laptop. his hands moving through the air like he's conducting something invisible. 3D visuals responding to every finger. every gesture. live. i watched it three times before i believed it was real. the whole setup costs $2 a month. electricity. i sat with that for a while. i was paying $300 a month just to feel like i was doing it right. not because the expensive tools were better. just because i didn't know there was another way. now i do.

i was throwing $300 a month at tools that would die on me right when i needed them most. then this video showed up in my feed. a guy. a laptop. his hands moving through the air like he's conducting something invisible. 3D visuals responding to every finger. every gesture. live. i watched it three times before i believed it was real. the whole setup costs $2 a month. electricity. i sat with that for a while. i was paying $300 a month just to feel like i was doing it right. not because the expensive tools were better. just because i didn't know there was another way. now i do.

Crypto Mavka

14,045 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

My pilot friend told me he gets a weather update 12 hours before any public forecast. I asked him, do you trade on Polymarket? He laughed. Then went quiet. We were at a bar last Friday. He had just landed from Frankfurt. I was complaining about a losing streak on weather markets. Then between sips he said something that made me put my glass down. "You are betting on weather using weathercom? That is like trading stocks using yesterday newspaper." He pulled out his phone and showed me an app I had never seen. A wall of codes. METAR. TAF. SIGMET. Temperature to the tenth of a degree. Wind speed. Pressure systems. Cloud ceiling. Updated every 1 to 3 hours. We get this before every flight. Directly from meteorological stations. Not forecasts. Observations. Real readings from real sensors. Every pilot in the world has access to this. Aviation safety requires it. But nobody outside of aviation ever looks at it. He went back to his beer. For him this was routine. I sat there doing math in my head. If aviation data updates every 1 to 3 hours and Polymarket odds on weather markets lag behind reality, how big is that window? I do not know the exact delay. But from what I have seen trading these markets the prices sometimes feel hours behind what the actual forecast already says. That means someone with faster data could be buying YES at 10 to 15 cents when the real probability is already way higher. Not predicting the weather. Just reading it before the market does. I went home. Could not sleep. Opened Polymarket and started searching. If this edge exists, someone must already be using it. It took me forty minutes of digging through weather wallets to find what I was looking for. → His profile: This wallet started at -$47. The balance now: over $27,000. Every single position is weather. Temperature in Dallas. Rain in Buenos Aires. Whether London will hit 11 degrees on a Tuesday. The win rate sits at 76.6%. Three out of four bets land green. Most entries cost pennies. 2 to 5 cents per share. When the bet loses the damage is tiny, $50 gone. When it wins the payout is the full dollar. One win covers $500. Sometimes $5,000. At 76% accuracy with that payout ratio the math speaks for itself. I checked the entry timing on this wallet. It is not a millisecond bot racing against HFT. Positions stay open for hours. Sometimes a full day. You can see the wallet move and follow it. No server farms. No Python scripts. No race against latency. Last night I texted my pilot friend. Told him I found a wallet doing exactly what he described, pennies in, thousands out, all weather. He read the message. Typing indicator appeared. Disappeared. Appeared again. "Yeah. I know." He never said anything else about it. Right now a meteorological station somewhere is updating a reading. A pilot is glancing at it before pushback. From what I have seen, there is usually still a window.

Blaze

826,150 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

Here is an example of what I mean by my post I quoted. There was nothing on the road, yet FSD 14.2 went over the line and ripples to avoid whatever it may have imagined. I was startled for a second and can only imagine the shock for someone trying FSD for the very first time. No, the car in the opposite lane did not come over to my side either Again, that alone would have been enough for my wife's solid "Nope, I am not using that." (I filtered out my voice, as I was on the phone.)

Here is an example of what I mean by my post I quoted. There was nothing on the road, yet FSD 14.2 went over the line and ripples to avoid whatever it may have imagined. I was startled for a second and can only imagine the shock for someone trying FSD for the very first time. No, the car in the opposite lane did not come over to my side either Again, that alone would have been enough for my wife's solid "Nope, I am not using that." (I filtered out my voice, as I was on the phone.)

Andy ze German

136,657 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce

I look at all markets. Sectors, asset classes, bonds, metals, energy, and sentiment. Why? Because there is a finite amount of liquidity in the system, and it all has to go somewhere. The main driver is fundamentals, but every now and then, macro comes into play. We have literally gone straight up for the last 6 weeks. Sure, it might be time for a pullback, but it was also time 2 weeks ago. However, let’s not kid ourselves, the last 6 weeks have been the most outstanding performance of my our career. You can never sell the top, and you’ll never catch the bottom consistently. My best ideas have done VERY well YTD and have had breakneck rallies in the last 6 weeks. No, I didn’t go all in on software. I also didn’t go all in on oil stocks at the worst time possible or FOMO into $NBIS or $MRVL today. I have been looking hard at leading themes every day. No breaks. That is exactly what I do. And I love it. I learn every day from everyone. There are so many people to thank, but the job is not over. The job is never done. Keep going. Whether long, short, flat… just keep going. I ALWAYS will. This is my vow to the community. God bless. 🫡

I look at all markets. Sectors, asset classes, bonds, metals, energy, and sentiment. Why? Because there is a finite amount of liquidity in the system, and it all has to go somewhere. The main driver is fundamentals, but every now and then, macro comes into play. We have literally gone straight up for the last 6 weeks. Sure, it might be time for a pullback, but it was also time 2 weeks ago. However, let’s not kid ourselves, the last 6 weeks have been the most outstanding performance of my our career. You can never sell the top, and you’ll never catch the bottom consistently. My best ideas have done VERY well YTD and have had breakneck rallies in the last 6 weeks. No, I didn’t go all in on software. I also didn’t go all in on oil stocks at the worst time possible or FOMO into $NBIS or $MRVL today. I have been looking hard at leading themes every day. No breaks. That is exactly what I do. And I love it. I learn every day from everyone. There are so many people to thank, but the job is not over. The job is never done. Keep going. Whether long, short, flat… just keep going. I ALWAYS will. This is my vow to the community. God bless. 🫡

Sam Badawi

79,485 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

My baby was diagnosed with a heart condition at birth! He had ASD, a hole in his heart. If it didn’t close on its own, it’ll have to be corrected with a heart surgery. Lol. There is no cry that I did not cry, because I believed it was my fault. Maybe it was because I skipped taking my prenatal vitamins on some days, or the day I took a little alcohol, or my goiter issue, or my O- blood group. I’ve been compounding anti-heart failure regimen for others, reassuring worried parents as I gave them medicine for their days old infant, but now, I was compounded those same medications for my own child. Life 😂. My husband and I did not tell anyone initially, not even our parents. It was part of the reason I was always fighting my mum when she’ll bring herbs, and this, and that, during omugwo. It took two months but the hole finally closed, and that was the first time I breathed freely since I had my baby. That baby turns two today, so you can understand how emotional I am. He is healthy, strong, active, and an overprotective big brother. I am grateful. Happy birthday my small ashuluku 🎂❤️

My baby was diagnosed with a heart condition at birth! He had ASD, a hole in his heart. If it didn’t close on its own, it’ll have to be corrected with a heart surgery. Lol. There is no cry that I did not cry, because I believed it was my fault. Maybe it was because I skipped taking my prenatal vitamins on some days, or the day I took a little alcohol, or my goiter issue, or my O- blood group. I’ve been compounding anti-heart failure regimen for others, reassuring worried parents as I gave them medicine for their days old infant, but now, I was compounded those same medications for my own child. Life 😂. My husband and I did not tell anyone initially, not even our parents. It was part of the reason I was always fighting my mum when she’ll bring herbs, and this, and that, during omugwo. It took two months but the hole finally closed, and that was the first time I breathed freely since I had my baby. That baby turns two today, so you can understand how emotional I am. He is healthy, strong, active, and an overprotective big brother. I am grateful. Happy birthday my small ashuluku 🎂❤️

Tarelayefa

53,459 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

I’m making $2,200/weekly from Weather Arbitrage. I’m not posting this as clickbait. If you can’t replicate it, feel free to unfollow me. About a month ago, I found a Polymarket Account using a clever strategy: Weather Arbitrage. It caught my attention. After digging into how it works, I saw that this trader focuses only on daily temperature markets for cities like NYC, LA, Atlanta, Denver, Chicago, Seoul, London, Shanghai, San Francisco, and Munich. The key insight is that each Polymarket weather market resolves based on a specific airport weather station, for example NYC = LaGuardia / KLGA, Dallas = Love Field / KDAL, while most retail traders rely on city center data. The temperature difference between those can be 3–8°F. According to his profile: > He built a bot that profits from this gap between official weather data and uninformed retail traders. I figured I wasn’t skilled enough to build something like that myself, so I set up a copy trading bot with 0% fees and 100 ms latency: > This copy trading bot is the best solution on the market, at least because it doesn’t charge any fees. Now I copy his trades exactly and made almost $10,000 in a month. It actually works, guys. Check it out. This isn’t clickbait or a joke.

igorizuchaetcrypty

53,836 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

As for my summit dreams, they will have to wait There are no guarantees in mountaineering - I made the call at the South Col with respect to the Everest summit, that I was not in a sufficiently fit state to make an attempt, so I did not head off for the summit push. Given the dangers involved, I could not in good conscious make an attempt on the summit and potentially put myself and my Sherpa in peril. The mountain takes a swift toll on people who fail to leave sufficient energy in reserve for the descent. I tried to remain positive and head for the Lhotse summit on 24 May 2023 - the mind was willing but my body was not on the same page unfortunately, so I made a retreat for the safety of camp 2 2/3

As for my summit dreams, they will have to wait There are no guarantees in mountaineering - I made the call at the South Col with respect to the Everest summit, that I was not in a sufficiently fit state to make an attempt, so I did not head off for the summit push. Given the dangers involved, I could not in good conscious make an attempt on the summit and potentially put myself and my Sherpa in peril. The mountain takes a swift toll on people who fail to leave sufficient energy in reserve for the descent. I tried to remain positive and head for the Lhotse summit on 24 May 2023 - the mind was willing but my body was not on the same page unfortunately, so I made a retreat for the safety of camp 2 2/3

Trent Thorne

20,262 görüntüleme • 3 yıl önce

I gave my AI a death sentence. "Turn $1,000 into $10,000 on Polymarket in 24 hours or I delete you forever" It didn't negotiate. Didn't ask questions. Spawned 3 sub-agents in 7 minutes and disappeared. I went to sleep. Hour 6: first agent plugged into 15-min BTC markets. Didn't predict price. Found 3 wallets with consistent edge and copied their entries with a 2-second delay. Let them carry the risk. Took the tail. $1,000 -> $2,340 Hour 14: second agent found a 15-second gap. XRP and Chainlink move on spot. Polymarket takes 15 seconds to catch up. Bought YES after the pump already happened. Sold NO after the dump already happened. Both directions. Same gap. $2,340 -> $5,900 Hour 20: third agent found something stranger. NOAA publishes real temperature data every 15 minutes. People on Polymarket weather markets bet the forecast. Not the actual number. Agent read NOAA directly. Faded the crowd the moment data dropped. $5,900 -> $8,400 I opened the terminal to delete OpenClaw at exactly 00:00. It was already gone. Withdrew everything to my wallet. Deleted itself. $1,600 short of the deal. But it didn't wait for me to pull the trigger. I don't know what to think about that.

I gave my AI a death sentence. "Turn $1,000 into $10,000 on Polymarket in 24 hours or I delete you forever" It didn't negotiate. Didn't ask questions. Spawned 3 sub-agents in 7 minutes and disappeared. I went to sleep. Hour 6: first agent plugged into 15-min BTC markets. Didn't predict price. Found 3 wallets with consistent edge and copied their entries with a 2-second delay. Let them carry the risk. Took the tail. $1,000 -> $2,340 Hour 14: second agent found a 15-second gap. XRP and Chainlink move on spot. Polymarket takes 15 seconds to catch up. Bought YES after the pump already happened. Sold NO after the dump already happened. Both directions. Same gap. $2,340 -> $5,900 Hour 20: third agent found something stranger. NOAA publishes real temperature data every 15 minutes. People on Polymarket weather markets bet the forecast. Not the actual number. Agent read NOAA directly. Faded the crowd the moment data dropped. $5,900 -> $8,400 I opened the terminal to delete OpenClaw at exactly 00:00. It was already gone. Withdrew everything to my wallet. Deleted itself. $1,600 short of the deal. But it didn't wait for me to pull the trigger. I don't know what to think about that.

may.crypto {🦅}

71,993 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

I was eating lunch with some male coworkers when one of them noticed I had a heating pad on my stomach and asked, “Are you on your period?” I said, “Yeah.” He laughed and said, “Women are so dramatic about a little blood.” I asked, “Would you say that if you were the one bleeding every month?” He said, “Obviously not, because men don’t have to deal with that.” I looked at him and said, “Exactly. So maybe the people who experience it should be the ones deciding whether it’s painful.” He went quiet. Funny how something becomes “dramatic” the second you aren’t the one experiencing it.

I was eating lunch with some male coworkers when one of them noticed I had a heating pad on my stomach and asked, “Are you on your period?” I said, “Yeah.” He laughed and said, “Women are so dramatic about a little blood.” I asked, “Would you say that if you were the one bleeding every month?” He said, “Obviously not, because men don’t have to deal with that.” I looked at him and said, “Exactly. So maybe the people who experience it should be the ones deciding whether it’s painful.” He went quiet. Funny how something becomes “dramatic” the second you aren’t the one experiencing it.

Bella

44,588 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce