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My ex laughed when she saw me writing Python scripts instead of going to interviews. "You're calculating… weather probabilities?" I was. Every market on Polymarket runs on one equation: C(q) = b · ln Σ e^(qi/b) It's called LMSR. The same math that GPT uses to pick the next...

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Lunar

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190,474 views • 3 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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My dad asked me why I stare at Python scripts at 3am instead of sleeping. "I'm not trading. I'm calculating." Every price on Polymarket comes from one equation: P(i) = exp(qᵢ / b) / Σ exp(qⱼ / b) This is the softmax function. The same math that GPT uses to pick the next word - Polymarket uses to price every contract. Most traders see 40¢ and think "cheap." I see 40¢ and check the liquidity parameter. b = 50 → one whale swings the market 20% b = 100,000 → barely moves I'm use for copytrade bots Gluon: Half my old trades were in thin pools. One order wrecked my fill. I was losing money to the formula I didn't know existed. So I learned it. Then I built a bot around it. EV = true_prob × (1 - market_price) - (1 - true_prob) × market_price The bot checks b, calculates EV, sizes with Kelly: f* = (p × b - q) / b And executes before my morning coffee gets cold. $200 starting bankroll. 6 weeks later: $18,700. I didn't predict a single outcome. The bot just reads the math that 93% of traders ignore. Full breakdown - LMSR, expected value, Kelly sizing, 5 cognitive traps
0:20

My dad asked me why I stare at Python scripts at 3am instead of sleeping. "I'm not trading. I'm calculating." Every price on Polymarket comes from one equation: P(i) = exp(qᵢ / b) / Σ exp(qⱼ / b) This is the softmax function. The same math that GPT uses to pick the next word - Polymarket uses to price every contract. Most traders see 40¢ and think "cheap." I see 40¢ and check the liquidity parameter. b = 50 → one whale swings the market 20% b = 100,000 → barely moves I'm use for copytrade bots Gluon: Half my old trades were in thin pools. One order wrecked my fill. I was losing money to the formula I didn't know existed. So I learned it. Then I built a bot around it. EV = true_prob × (1 - market_price) - (1 - true_prob) × market_price The bot checks b, calculates EV, sizes with Kelly: f* = (p × b - q) / b And executes before my morning coffee gets cold. $200 starting bankroll. 6 weeks later: $18,700. I didn't predict a single outcome. The bot just reads the math that 93% of traders ignore. Full breakdown - LMSR, expected value, Kelly sizing, 5 cognitive traps

Lunar

217,298 views • 3 months ago

My dad looked at my screen and said "what is this, a hacker game?" It was a Polymarket bot making $400 while he was standing behind me He sat down. I explained Polymarket runs on one equation - softmax. The same math Claude uses to pick the next word C(q) = b · ln Σ e^(qi/b) 93% of traders don't know this formula exists They look at 40¢ and think "cheap" My bot looks at 40¢ and calculates the theoretical price is 58¢ I'm use for copytrade bots: That's an 18-cent edge per share Two more formulas do the rest: f* = (p·b − q) / b - Kelly Criterion. P(H|E) = P(E|H)·P(H) / P(E) - Bayes. I gave Claude all 4 and said "find every contract the market has wrong" $600 → $10,190. 425 trades. Still running 61.2% win rate - wrong 39% of the time. Doesn't matter. The sizing formula makes sure wins pay more than losses cost 87% of wallets lose money trading against this math The 4 formulas are on Wikipedia. The code fits in one file The only edge: my bot reads them at 3 AM when the market is mispriced and nobody's looking My dad still calls it a hacker game. But he stopped asking when I'm getting a "real job" Only math + code, no more
0:43

My dad looked at my screen and said "what is this, a hacker game?" It was a Polymarket bot making $400 while he was standing behind me He sat down. I explained Polymarket runs on one equation - softmax. The same math Claude uses to pick the next word C(q) = b · ln Σ e^(qi/b) 93% of traders don't know this formula exists They look at 40¢ and think "cheap" My bot looks at 40¢ and calculates the theoretical price is 58¢ I'm use for copytrade bots: That's an 18-cent edge per share Two more formulas do the rest: f* = (p·b − q) / b - Kelly Criterion. P(H|E) = P(E|H)·P(H) / P(E) - Bayes. I gave Claude all 4 and said "find every contract the market has wrong" $600 → $10,190. 425 trades. Still running 61.2% win rate - wrong 39% of the time. Doesn't matter. The sizing formula makes sure wins pay more than losses cost 87% of wallets lose money trading against this math The 4 formulas are on Wikipedia. The code fits in one file The only edge: my bot reads them at 3 AM when the market is mispriced and nobody's looking My dad still calls it a hacker game. But he stopped asking when I'm getting a "real job" Only math + code, no more

Lunar

108,420 views • 3 months ago

I gave Claude one Polymarket equation and told it to find every mispriced contract It hasn't stopped running in 4 months $600 → $14,190 Every Polymarket contract is priced by one formula: C(q) = b × ln(Σ e^(qi / b)) The pricing function inside it is softmax - the same math Claude uses to pick its next token Claude doesn't just understand this equation, it thinks in it So I gave it a task: "Scan every open contract, compute fair value, flag anything the market has wrong 24/7" It finds the gap, sizes the position by Kelly, enters before the crowd corrects Market shows 0.38, math shows 0.57, bot buys Resolution hits, bot collects 120 days 61.2% win rate 2.31 sharpe -3.8% max drawdown 425 trades 87% of Polymarket wallets are underwater They trade feelings against a formula that doesn't bluff, doesn't tilt, doesn't chase losses The edge is having something that reads the math faster than any human - and never stops looking
0:28

I gave Claude one Polymarket equation and told it to find every mispriced contract It hasn't stopped running in 4 months $600 → $14,190 Every Polymarket contract is priced by one formula: C(q) = b × ln(Σ e^(qi / b)) The pricing function inside it is softmax - the same math Claude uses to pick its next token Claude doesn't just understand this equation, it thinks in it So I gave it a task: "Scan every open contract, compute fair value, flag anything the market has wrong 24/7" It finds the gap, sizes the position by Kelly, enters before the crowd corrects Market shows 0.38, math shows 0.57, bot buys Resolution hits, bot collects 120 days 61.2% win rate 2.31 sharpe -3.8% max drawdown 425 trades 87% of Polymarket wallets are underwater They trade feelings against a formula that doesn't bluff, doesn't tilt, doesn't chase losses The edge is having something that reads the math faster than any human - and never stops looking

rari

311,650 views • 3 months ago

every polymarket bot is based on this formula the kelly criterion f = (p - m) / (1 - m) p = your true probability m = current market price simple rule, but it works on distance you think edge is about picking winners but the real game is position sizing here's how it works: bot identifies edge: calculates true probability vs market price example flow: bot sees market at 50c (m), calculates real probability at 60% (p) math is simple: edge / remaining upside (0.60 - 0.50) / (1.00 - 0.50) 0.10 / 0.50 = 0.20 kelly says allocate 20% of current capital bot uses quarter kelly for safety = 5% allocation position opens automatically at optimal size as bankroll grows, position sizes scale up proportionally as bankroll shrinks, positions scale down to preserve capital bots are actually destroying manual traders humans can't make calculations instantly bots can the formula ensures maximum growth without risking ruin position sizing adjusts dynamically to current capital this is the foundation of every serious automated strategy
0:31

every polymarket bot is based on this formula the kelly criterion f = (p - m) / (1 - m) p = your true probability m = current market price simple rule, but it works on distance you think edge is about picking winners but the real game is position sizing here's how it works: bot identifies edge: calculates true probability vs market price example flow: bot sees market at 50c (m), calculates real probability at 60% (p) math is simple: edge / remaining upside (0.60 - 0.50) / (1.00 - 0.50) 0.10 / 0.50 = 0.20 kelly says allocate 20% of current capital bot uses quarter kelly for safety = 5% allocation position opens automatically at optimal size as bankroll grows, position sizes scale up proportionally as bankroll shrinks, positions scale down to preserve capital bots are actually destroying manual traders humans can't make calculations instantly bots can the formula ensures maximum growth without risking ruin position sizing adjusts dynamically to current capital this is the foundation of every serious automated strategy

ramper

68,794 views • 4 months ago

$120K on a math degree to work at Starbucks then I found the one equation they should've taught first day: p(q) = e^(q/b) / Σ e^(qi/b) it's the softmax function > GPT uses it to predict words > Polymarket uses it to price beliefs I use it to make $8K/week bookmark this before student loans are due turns out differential equations were a scam
0:22

$120K on a math degree to work at Starbucks then I found the one equation they should've taught first day: p(q) = e^(q/b) / Σ e^(qi/b) it's the softmax function > GPT uses it to predict words > Polymarket uses it to price beliefs I use it to make $8K/week bookmark this before student loans are due turns out differential equations were a scam

bl888m

233,328 views • 3 months ago

Last semester a professor pulled me aside after class. "You trade prediction markets?" - he asked. I said yeah, mostly vibes. He laughed and said that's why you're losing. He spent 20 minutes on a whiteboard showing me Bayes' Theorem, Kelly Criterion, and LMSR pricing. Said this is literally how quant funds approach binary markets. I took photos of everything. Went home, opened Claude, pasted my notes and said: “build me a bot that does exactly this 3 hours later I had a working Bayesian trading bot for Polymarket BTC markets. Here's the math it runs on every single trade: - Bayesian update update beliefs before entering P(H|D) = P(D|H) · P(H) / P(D) - Edge detection -only trade if you have an edge EV = p̂ − p_market - Kelly sizing-bet exactly the right amount f* = EV / p̂(1−p̂) - LMSR pricing how Polymarket actually prices markets p(q) = e^{q/b} / Σe^{qⱼ/b} (it's literally the softmax function from neural networks) 65% win rate. Losses happen. Kelly keeps them from blowing the account. Compounding does the rest. My CLAWD BOT turned $100 into $1000 in 30min The professor was right. Vibes don't compound. Math does.
0:29

Last semester a professor pulled me aside after class. "You trade prediction markets?" - he asked. I said yeah, mostly vibes. He laughed and said that's why you're losing. He spent 20 minutes on a whiteboard showing me Bayes' Theorem, Kelly Criterion, and LMSR pricing. Said this is literally how quant funds approach binary markets. I took photos of everything. Went home, opened Claude, pasted my notes and said: “build me a bot that does exactly this 3 hours later I had a working Bayesian trading bot for Polymarket BTC markets. Here's the math it runs on every single trade: - Bayesian update update beliefs before entering P(H|D) = P(D|H) · P(H) / P(D) - Edge detection -only trade if you have an edge EV = p̂ − p_market - Kelly sizing-bet exactly the right amount f* = EV / p̂(1−p̂) - LMSR pricing how Polymarket actually prices markets p(q) = e^{q/b} / Σe^{qⱼ/b} (it's literally the softmax function from neural networks) 65% win rate. Losses happen. Kelly keeps them from blowing the account. Compounding does the rest. My CLAWD BOT turned $100 into $1000 in 30min The professor was right. Vibes don't compound. Math does.

AdiiX

173,455 views • 3 months ago

Traders need 2 levels of belief. ... “If I win 80% of the time and lose 20% of the time, I wouldn't know if the next trade is one of the 80 or one of the 20.” “It's my conclusion, after 40 years, that we don't really trade any market at all, we trade our beliefs about the market. Dr David Paul
7:56

Traders need 2 levels of belief. ... “If I win 80% of the time and lose 20% of the time, I wouldn't know if the next trade is one of the 80 or one of the 20.” “It's my conclusion, after 40 years, that we don't really trade any market at all, we trade our beliefs about the market. Dr David Paul

Market Rebellion

77,971 views • 3 months ago

Chinese student used AI from Anthropic to turn $1,000 into $1,500,000 He studies at Tsinghua University in Beijing. His account is k9Q2m In such a young age he already make a million simply knowing the right formulas and being able to use Claude Result: $1,430 → $1,550,750 44,364 trades Win rate 100% The biggest win $23,600 on a single bet k9Q2m profile: How it bots work: The bot runs 6 formulas hedge funds use simultaneously, every tick. Most traders guess. This bot calculates. Formula 1 - LMSR Pricing Polymarket prices move on a logarithmic curve. The bot knows the exact price impact before entering. Market says 31¢ for BTC up in 5 minutes. The model sees the curve is mispriced. The bot enters before the correction. Formula 2 - Kelly Criterion Renaissance Capital uses it. Two Sigma uses it. Now your bot uses it. Every bet is sized exactly right. Never too big to blow the account. Never too small to matter. $1,000 bankroll. Consistent edge. Kelly compounds it into something real. Formula 3 - EV Gap Detection The bot scans every BTC market looking for one thing: - Where is the market price wrong by more than 5%? - Market says 30¢. Real probability is 55¢. EV = +0.52. The bot enters. Most people never see this gap. The bot never misses it. Formula 4 - KL-Divergence BTC 5-minute and 15-minute markets are correlated. When they drift apart - that's an arb. The bot measures the statistical distance between them every second. When it crosses 0.2, it flags the trade. This is how hedge funds extracted $100K+ on correlated election markets. The same logic runs here. Formula 5 - Bayesian Updates New block confirmed. Volume spike. Price movement. The bot doesn't ignore signals - it updates. Prior probability was 54%. New data comes in. Posterior jumps to 71%. The bot re-prices in real time while the market is still asleep. Formula 6 - Stoikov Execution Entering at the wrong moment kills the edge. The bot calculates the reservation price-the exact point where the risk-adjusted entry makes sense. It doesn't chase. It doesn't panic. It waits for the right tick, then fills What this means in practice: - Every few seconds the bot runs all six formulas in parallel. - If LMSR confirms mispricing - EV gap is above 5% - Kelly says the bet size is justified - Bayesian posterior agrees - KL-divergence flags the correlated drift - Stoikov clears the execution price Only then does the bot enter. Six filters. One trade. This isn't a trading bot. It's a hedge fund strategy running on a prediction market. The edge is real. The math is public. The difference is most people never build it. Just insert all these formulas into Claude and create your own bot Add this post to bookmarks so you don’t lose it Soon I will publish another bot with working formulas
0:38

Chinese student used AI from Anthropic to turn $1,000 into $1,500,000 He studies at Tsinghua University in Beijing. His account is k9Q2m In such a young age he already make a million simply knowing the right formulas and being able to use Claude Result: $1,430 → $1,550,750 44,364 trades Win rate 100% The biggest win $23,600 on a single bet k9Q2m profile: How it bots work: The bot runs 6 formulas hedge funds use simultaneously, every tick. Most traders guess. This bot calculates. Formula 1 - LMSR Pricing Polymarket prices move on a logarithmic curve. The bot knows the exact price impact before entering. Market says 31¢ for BTC up in 5 minutes. The model sees the curve is mispriced. The bot enters before the correction. Formula 2 - Kelly Criterion Renaissance Capital uses it. Two Sigma uses it. Now your bot uses it. Every bet is sized exactly right. Never too big to blow the account. Never too small to matter. $1,000 bankroll. Consistent edge. Kelly compounds it into something real. Formula 3 - EV Gap Detection The bot scans every BTC market looking for one thing: - Where is the market price wrong by more than 5%? - Market says 30¢. Real probability is 55¢. EV = +0.52. The bot enters. Most people never see this gap. The bot never misses it. Formula 4 - KL-Divergence BTC 5-minute and 15-minute markets are correlated. When they drift apart - that's an arb. The bot measures the statistical distance between them every second. When it crosses 0.2, it flags the trade. This is how hedge funds extracted $100K+ on correlated election markets. The same logic runs here. Formula 5 - Bayesian Updates New block confirmed. Volume spike. Price movement. The bot doesn't ignore signals - it updates. Prior probability was 54%. New data comes in. Posterior jumps to 71%. The bot re-prices in real time while the market is still asleep. Formula 6 - Stoikov Execution Entering at the wrong moment kills the edge. The bot calculates the reservation price-the exact point where the risk-adjusted entry makes sense. It doesn't chase. It doesn't panic. It waits for the right tick, then fills What this means in practice: - Every few seconds the bot runs all six formulas in parallel. - If LMSR confirms mispricing - EV gap is above 5% - Kelly says the bet size is justified - Bayesian posterior agrees - KL-divergence flags the correlated drift - Stoikov clears the execution price Only then does the bot enter. Six filters. One trade. This isn't a trading bot. It's a hedge fund strategy running on a prediction market. The edge is real. The math is public. The difference is most people never build it. Just insert all these formulas into Claude and create your own bot Add this post to bookmarks so you don’t lose it Soon I will publish another bot with working formulas

AdiiX

716,965 views • 3 months ago

Polymarket just got mathematically robbed. Top 0.04% already took 70% of all the money ($3.7B) thanks to 4 formulas from this article below. Open the leaderboard and there he is. [0x8dxd]: $2,285,751 ALL-TIME profit. Joined Dec 2025. $41.2K biggest win. 31,570 predictions. Not luck. Not "feeling the market". This is a bot running strictly on Lunar’s formulas on autopilot: Formula 1 - Expected Value (When to Enter) Contract at 40¢, but your real probability assessment is 60% -> +20¢ edge per dollar. Claude calculates this in seconds. Formula 2 - Kelly Criterion (How Much to Bet) f = (p·b − q)/b* (Quarter Kelly - that's why he doesn't blow up and compounds without any emotion) Formula 3 - Bayesian Updating (How to Change Your Mind) P(H|E) = [P(E|H) × P(H)] / P(E) Instantly rebuilds probability on any news. Formula 4 - Log Returns (Real Profit Calculation) Regular arithmetic lies. Only log returns show the real picture. Scans 50+ markets at once, enters only 15-min BTC Up/Down with real edge (where [0x8dxd] prints +157%, +207%, +181%), sleeps the rest of the time. 87% of wallets are in the red. A few such bots take everything. And this guy didn't just write an article - he handed out the blueprint that's already working for [0x8dxd]. Don't want to code it yourself? Just copy this trader with You can runs exactly this system: the same 4 formulas + Claude + auto-copying top math. Add his wallet: 0x63ce342161250d705dc0b16df89036c8e5f9ba9a to [ and start track/copy him right now. 4 formulas from Wikipedia + Claude brain + Kreo execution = meta 2026. The math doesn't sleep. Your FOMO does. Save and use this.
0:24

Polymarket just got mathematically robbed. Top 0.04% already took 70% of all the money ($3.7B) thanks to 4 formulas from this article below. Open the leaderboard and there he is. [0x8dxd]: $2,285,751 ALL-TIME profit. Joined Dec 2025. $41.2K biggest win. 31,570 predictions. Not luck. Not "feeling the market". This is a bot running strictly on Lunar’s formulas on autopilot: Formula 1 - Expected Value (When to Enter) Contract at 40¢, but your real probability assessment is 60% -> +20¢ edge per dollar. Claude calculates this in seconds. Formula 2 - Kelly Criterion (How Much to Bet) f = (p·b − q)/b* (Quarter Kelly - that's why he doesn't blow up and compounds without any emotion) Formula 3 - Bayesian Updating (How to Change Your Mind) P(H|E) = [P(E|H) × P(H)] / P(E) Instantly rebuilds probability on any news. Formula 4 - Log Returns (Real Profit Calculation) Regular arithmetic lies. Only log returns show the real picture. Scans 50+ markets at once, enters only 15-min BTC Up/Down with real edge (where [0x8dxd] prints +157%, +207%, +181%), sleeps the rest of the time. 87% of wallets are in the red. A few such bots take everything. And this guy didn't just write an article - he handed out the blueprint that's already working for [0x8dxd]. Don't want to code it yourself? Just copy this trader with You can runs exactly this system: the same 4 formulas + Claude + auto-copying top math. Add his wallet: 0x63ce342161250d705dc0b16df89036c8e5f9ba9a to [ and start track/copy him right now. 4 formulas from Wikipedia + Claude brain + Kreo execution = meta 2026. The math doesn't sleep. Your FOMO does. Save and use this.

slash1s

19,433 views • 3 months ago

My friend lost a Mac Mini M4 and $50,000 to me because of one tweet. "Twitter Polymarket strategies don't work" he said. I took $5 - price of a beer - and went to prove him wrong. Found a tweet about 5-minute BTC markets on Polymarket. The strategy: enter 30-60 sec before close, bet on 85%+ odds, collect +1-5% per trade. Sounded too easy. I almost scrolled past. But I tried it. First bet - won. Second - won. Third - won. Then I stopped copying and made it better. Enter 20 sec before expiry, not 60. Less time = less reversal risk. Only enter when current price vs price to beat gap is 40+ points. The real edge: price near the beat line but odds skewed 92c vs 8c? Size down, play the opposite side. Risk/reward is insane. No clean entry? Wait 5 minutes. Greed kills this strategy. 8 out of 8 bets - won. $5 turned into $30 in 2 hours. My friend shipped me the Mac Mini M4 the same day. Then he sent $50k. Not because he lost it - because he wants me to trade it for him. While you're reading this, the next 5-minute market closes in a few minutes. Try it: Drop your results below 👇
0:22

My friend lost a Mac Mini M4 and $50,000 to me because of one tweet. "Twitter Polymarket strategies don't work" he said. I took $5 - price of a beer - and went to prove him wrong. Found a tweet about 5-minute BTC markets on Polymarket. The strategy: enter 30-60 sec before close, bet on 85%+ odds, collect +1-5% per trade. Sounded too easy. I almost scrolled past. But I tried it. First bet - won. Second - won. Third - won. Then I stopped copying and made it better. Enter 20 sec before expiry, not 60. Less time = less reversal risk. Only enter when current price vs price to beat gap is 40+ points. The real edge: price near the beat line but odds skewed 92c vs 8c? Size down, play the opposite side. Risk/reward is insane. No clean entry? Wait 5 minutes. Greed kills this strategy. 8 out of 8 bets - won. $5 turned into $30 in 2 hours. My friend shipped me the Mac Mini M4 the same day. Then he sent $50k. Not because he lost it - because he wants me to trade it for him. While you're reading this, the next 5-minute market closes in a few minutes. Try it: Drop your results below 👇

may.crypto {🦅}

42,279 views • 4 months ago

Polymarket vs Sportsbooks: Why Betting Apps are Toast On E248, Chamath and Friedberg discussed why prediction markets like Polymarket are killing traditional sportsbooks. Friedberg: “I think gambling generally, as we call it, should be decriminalized.” “And I don't like this state-by-state set up with gambling.” “I think we should have a federal regulatory body.” “This is not going away. People love to bet on stuff. This is part of sports, this is part of the culture.” Chamath: “ Look at Polymarket.” “Polymarket raised at, whatever it was, $1-2B at $9B. Then the next weekend they announced sports betting and now they're raising money 30 days later at, allegedly, $12-15B.” “And you can see, by the way, the way that DraftKings and FanDuel stock have reacted to this, those companies are toast.” Friedberg: “ The Polymarket model is the best model because it creates a market.” “And so as information flows in, that market will dynamically adjust and everyone will get a more fair price.” “Polymarket actually has the news before the news does.” “And this is one of the most powerful outputs of Polymarket, is they're actually getting a read on what's going on in the world before the media recognizes it, before the public recognizes it.” “When you put money up, it actually turns out that when people have incentives, that market will find the truth.”
1:04

Polymarket vs Sportsbooks: Why Betting Apps are Toast On E248, Chamath and Friedberg discussed why prediction markets like Polymarket are killing traditional sportsbooks. Friedberg: “I think gambling generally, as we call it, should be decriminalized.” “And I don't like this state-by-state set up with gambling.” “I think we should have a federal regulatory body.” “This is not going away. People love to bet on stuff. This is part of sports, this is part of the culture.” Chamath: “ Look at Polymarket.” “Polymarket raised at, whatever it was, $1-2B at $9B. Then the next weekend they announced sports betting and now they're raising money 30 days later at, allegedly, $12-15B.” “And you can see, by the way, the way that DraftKings and FanDuel stock have reacted to this, those companies are toast.” Friedberg: “ The Polymarket model is the best model because it creates a market.” “And so as information flows in, that market will dynamically adjust and everyone will get a more fair price.” “Polymarket actually has the news before the news does.” “And this is one of the most powerful outputs of Polymarket, is they're actually getting a read on what's going on in the world before the media recognizes it, before the public recognizes it.” “When you put money up, it actually turns out that when people have incentives, that market will find the truth.”

The All-In Podcast

347,566 views • 8 months ago

I just found one of the biggest platform bug on Polymarket that cost me my $8.5k portfolio today. Please watch this video. I opened the exact same BTC 5m market on two different devices right next to each other. My computer monitor shows 2 minutes and 50 seconds remaining. My MacBook shows 4 minutes and 02 seconds remaining. There is more than a full minute of time difference on the exact same live market. This video is undeniable proof of exactly why I lost my money today. I was trading on my computer earlier and I waited until the 5m time frame end. When Polymarket UI showed me on my computer the timeframe was completely over and the price was safely above the target, I placed a market up order to provide liquidity. I was 100 percent sure it was a zero risk move because your platform timer showed me the market was already finished and BTC price is up from the beat price. But because of this bug my computer timer was closing 1 minute earlier than the real market time. So after I placed my order believing the market was settled as Up, the actual market was still open. It kept counting the Bitcoin price movements for the next full minute after I placed my trade. During that hidden extra minute the price of BTC dropped and the market finally settled Down, instantly wiping out my entire portfolio. When people told me it might be a UI delay I was shocked, but now I have it on video. The Polymarket timer is completely broken and out of sync across devices. My Polymarket wallet address is: 0xf0AD2eeb8F898619460a38c015a7897a4E797651 Trade URL 1: Trade URL 2: On those above two trade i lost total $8500 The first video I just recorded now when i noticed this bugs and the second video i made when my trade lost and i didn’t have any reason how its happened. I am begging Shayne Coplan 🦅 and the Polymarket support team to review this video. I did not make a trading mistake. I trusted a broken platform timer that showed completely wrong data and forced me into an active market I thought was closed. Please fix this massive bug protect your user and refund my loses.
0:34

I just found one of the biggest platform bug on Polymarket that cost me my $8.5k portfolio today. Please watch this video. I opened the exact same BTC 5m market on two different devices right next to each other. My computer monitor shows 2 minutes and 50 seconds remaining. My MacBook shows 4 minutes and 02 seconds remaining. There is more than a full minute of time difference on the exact same live market. This video is undeniable proof of exactly why I lost my money today. I was trading on my computer earlier and I waited until the 5m time frame end. When Polymarket UI showed me on my computer the timeframe was completely over and the price was safely above the target, I placed a market up order to provide liquidity. I was 100 percent sure it was a zero risk move because your platform timer showed me the market was already finished and BTC price is up from the beat price. But because of this bug my computer timer was closing 1 minute earlier than the real market time. So after I placed my order believing the market was settled as Up, the actual market was still open. It kept counting the Bitcoin price movements for the next full minute after I placed my trade. During that hidden extra minute the price of BTC dropped and the market finally settled Down, instantly wiping out my entire portfolio. When people told me it might be a UI delay I was shocked, but now I have it on video. The Polymarket timer is completely broken and out of sync across devices. My Polymarket wallet address is: 0xf0AD2eeb8F898619460a38c015a7897a4E797651 Trade URL 1: Trade URL 2: On those above two trade i lost total $8500 The first video I just recorded now when i noticed this bugs and the second video i made when my trade lost and i didn’t have any reason how its happened. I am begging Shayne Coplan 🦅 and the Polymarket support team to review this video. I did not make a trading mistake. I trusted a broken platform timer that showed completely wrong data and forced me into an active market I thought was closed. Please fix this massive bug protect your user and refund my loses.

Sheikh Silicon

76,105 views • 2 months ago

$50 → $1,000/day OpenClaw has been running for 72 hours straight no breaks. no sleep. no mercy. it uses Claude Sonnet to read the market like a chess engine - every 5 minutes it scans thousands of Polymarket contracts Calculates true probability, and only bets when the edge is real here's what happens every 5 minutes: - Claude Sonnet builds a fair value model - scans 9,900+ live markets - ignores anything under 5% edge - sizes the bet (Kelly criterion, capped at 8% bankroll) - fires the order via CLOB - profits pay for their own API costs the agent has one rule: don't die if balance hits $0 - it's over forever
0:24

$50 → $1,000/day OpenClaw has been running for 72 hours straight no breaks. no sleep. no mercy. it uses Claude Sonnet to read the market like a chess engine - every 5 minutes it scans thousands of Polymarket contracts Calculates true probability, and only bets when the edge is real here's what happens every 5 minutes: - Claude Sonnet builds a fair value model - scans 9,900+ live markets - ignores anything under 5% edge - sizes the bet (Kelly criterion, capped at 8% bankroll) - fires the order via CLOB - profits pay for their own API costs the agent has one rule: don't die if balance hits $0 - it's over forever

BuBBliK

61,348 views • 3 months ago

My ex asked what I do for a living. I said "I argue with an AI about probability at 2AM" She thought I was joking I wasn't. That AI is Claude. And those arguments turned into a Polymarket bot that runs 24/7 Every cycle it pulls 50+ markets, feeds each one to Claude with structured prompts, and gets back a probability + confidence level. If EV > 5% - it trades. If not - it waits Took me 7 prompt rewrites to get Claude from 40% accuracy to 75%. v1 was garbage. v7 is what runs now Position sizing: Quarter Kelly. The formula is on Wikipedia. The discipline to actually use it - that's the hard part 847 trades so far. GTC orders, not FOK. Fill rate went from 60% to 95% after that one switch The whole thing runs on a $5 VPS. systemd restarts it if it crashes. Telegram pings me on every fill She asked "so the computer just makes money?" Basically yes. But it took 2 weeks of building and 30+ tools to get here Now you can skip those 2 weeks via Pretracer:
0:48

My ex asked what I do for a living. I said "I argue with an AI about probability at 2AM" She thought I was joking I wasn't. That AI is Claude. And those arguments turned into a Polymarket bot that runs 24/7 Every cycle it pulls 50+ markets, feeds each one to Claude with structured prompts, and gets back a probability + confidence level. If EV > 5% - it trades. If not - it waits Took me 7 prompt rewrites to get Claude from 40% accuracy to 75%. v1 was garbage. v7 is what runs now Position sizing: Quarter Kelly. The formula is on Wikipedia. The discipline to actually use it - that's the hard part 847 trades so far. GTC orders, not FOK. Fill rate went from 60% to 95% after that one switch The whole thing runs on a $5 VPS. systemd restarts it if it crashes. Telegram pings me on every fill She asked "so the computer just makes money?" Basically yes. But it took 2 weeks of building and 30+ tools to get here Now you can skip those 2 weeks via Pretracer:

Lunar

10,345 views • 3 months ago

i fed Claude 5 PhD formulas and asked him to build me a terminal he didn't ask questions. he built MiroFish 274 agents. 4 quant formulas running live each one doing what 87% of polymarket traders can't every 5 seconds the terminal does this: > scans polymarket contracts > runs bayes update on every new signal > calculates EV against market price > sizes position through ¼ kelly > checks KL-divergence across correlated markets for arbitrage no opinions. no "i feel like YES is underpriced" just math that PhD students publish and hedge funds lock behind NDAs here's what happened in 14 days: > day 2: bayes picked up OSINT chatter on iran negotiations prior 0.31 → posterior 0.58 in three updates bot bought YES on "ceasefire by Q3" at $0.33 kelly sized it at 6% of bankroll contract moved to $0.61 by day 5 +$2,180 > day 6: KL-divergence flagged a gap "candidate X wins primary" priced at $0.70 "candidate X wins general" priced at $0.48 historical base rate says general should track at ~62% of primary bot bought general, hedged with primary convergence hit by day 9 +$3,740 > day 9: EV scanner found a weather contract market priced hurricane landfall at $0.22 model said 41% based on NOAA data EV = +$0.86 per dollar risked kelly said 11% allocation landfall confirmed day 12 +$4,890 > day 11-14: base rate engine running quiet fed meeting contract at $0.65 for "hold rates" base rate: fed holds when unemployment < 4% → 74% of the time unemployment at 3.8%. market underpriced by 9 points bought at $0.65. settled at $0.98 +$4,663 total: $15,473 in 14 days not from predictions. from formulas 87% of polymarket wallets lose money because they trade what feels right the top 1.2% trade what the math says MiroFish doesn't read twitter threads it reads probability distributions 274 agents don't have opinions they have bayesian priors every 15 seconds the NEXUS core sends a pulse to all agents they recalculate. reposition. repeat i just watch the profit tick copy the bot here: you don't need to be a quant you need a quant's formulas running 24/7
0:28

i fed Claude 5 PhD formulas and asked him to build me a terminal he didn't ask questions. he built MiroFish 274 agents. 4 quant formulas running live each one doing what 87% of polymarket traders can't every 5 seconds the terminal does this: > scans polymarket contracts > runs bayes update on every new signal > calculates EV against market price > sizes position through ¼ kelly > checks KL-divergence across correlated markets for arbitrage no opinions. no "i feel like YES is underpriced" just math that PhD students publish and hedge funds lock behind NDAs here's what happened in 14 days: > day 2: bayes picked up OSINT chatter on iran negotiations prior 0.31 → posterior 0.58 in three updates bot bought YES on "ceasefire by Q3" at $0.33 kelly sized it at 6% of bankroll contract moved to $0.61 by day 5 +$2,180 > day 6: KL-divergence flagged a gap "candidate X wins primary" priced at $0.70 "candidate X wins general" priced at $0.48 historical base rate says general should track at ~62% of primary bot bought general, hedged with primary convergence hit by day 9 +$3,740 > day 9: EV scanner found a weather contract market priced hurricane landfall at $0.22 model said 41% based on NOAA data EV = +$0.86 per dollar risked kelly said 11% allocation landfall confirmed day 12 +$4,890 > day 11-14: base rate engine running quiet fed meeting contract at $0.65 for "hold rates" base rate: fed holds when unemployment < 4% → 74% of the time unemployment at 3.8%. market underpriced by 9 points bought at $0.65. settled at $0.98 +$4,663 total: $15,473 in 14 days not from predictions. from formulas 87% of polymarket wallets lose money because they trade what feels right the top 1.2% trade what the math says MiroFish doesn't read twitter threads it reads probability distributions 274 agents don't have opinions they have bayesian priors every 15 seconds the NEXUS core sends a pulse to all agents they recalculate. reposition. repeat i just watch the profit tick copy the bot here: you don't need to be a quant you need a quant's formulas running 24/7

Hanako

158,767 views • 3 months ago

this is legitimately brilliant trying it today because if this actually works the way he describes I'm completely changing how I trade on prediction markets like Polymarket i just gone through The Smart Ape 🔥's bot, he just spent weeks building a free tool that connects Polymarket odds to real-time news because he was tired of manually tracking everything. the insight here gathered is perfect: - top traders on Polymarket aren't running sophisticated bots. - they're just faster at spotting when the market price diverges from reality. - markets stay mispriced for HOURS after major news drops. 10-30% off sometimes he built polymarketnews(dot)xyz and it's actually insane: - AI scrapes every major publisher - flags bullish/bearish news with green/red markers directly on the price chart - updates in minutes. for instance, the Iran Khamenei market example, the news drops suggesting power consolidation, market doesn't react for hours, then crashes 40% I've been saying this forever, information asymmetry is the only real edge in prediction markets and he just made it for free absolute gold here i genuinely think this is one of those tools that becomes essential infrastructure for anyone serious about prediction markets. the edge isn't the bot it's the speed of information and he just leveled the playing field
0:48

this is legitimately brilliant trying it today because if this actually works the way he describes I'm completely changing how I trade on prediction markets like Polymarket i just gone through The Smart Ape 🔥's bot, he just spent weeks building a free tool that connects Polymarket odds to real-time news because he was tired of manually tracking everything. the insight here gathered is perfect: - top traders on Polymarket aren't running sophisticated bots. - they're just faster at spotting when the market price diverges from reality. - markets stay mispriced for HOURS after major news drops. 10-30% off sometimes he built polymarketnews(dot)xyz and it's actually insane: - AI scrapes every major publisher - flags bullish/bearish news with green/red markers directly on the price chart - updates in minutes. for instance, the Iran Khamenei market example, the news drops suggesting power consolidation, market doesn't react for hours, then crashes 40% I've been saying this forever, information asymmetry is the only real edge in prediction markets and he just made it for free absolute gold here i genuinely think this is one of those tools that becomes essential infrastructure for anyone serious about prediction markets. the edge isn't the bot it's the speed of information and he just leveled the playing field

arndxt

104,445 views • 5 months ago

$1,331,821 IN 30 DAYS. 3 BOTS. 48,061 TRADES. ONE FORMULA. They don't predict price. They measure what state the market is in right now. Markov chains, transition matrix, each cell - the probability of transitioning from state A to state B. The matrix diagonal - the probability that the market stays where it is. Entry only when the diagonal is above 0.87. Two conditions: the gap between model and market is greater than 5%, and the state is stable. Both must be true. One function, runs every minute. Bot 1 - Bonereaper. BTC and ETH, hourly windows, entry at 83-97¢. The market agrees with the direction but underestimates the confidence. 4-19% on every resolution. Low variance. Bot 2 - 0xe1D6. Dual mode, directional scalps at 64-83¢ deliver 20-54% per trade. In parallel, locks at 99.5-99.8¢. Best trade: entry at 64.7¢, return 54.6%. Bot 3 - 0xB27BC. Five assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP. Five-minute windows. One trade every 1.7 minutes. Variance 55% lower at the same expected return. The real edge - 3:00 AM. People are asleep. The market posts lazy, stale prices. The gap between model and market is maximal when no one is watching. 0.034% per trade sounds like nothing. Over 16,000 trades that's *240. The law of large numbers turns noise into an exponent. Kelly criterion f* ≈ 0.71 - aggressive enough to grow, conservative enough not to go to zero. As long as people misprice short windows - the edge exists. You don't need to predict. You need to measure. The market rewards those who understand probability. The rest just provide liquidity.
0:55

$1,331,821 IN 30 DAYS. 3 BOTS. 48,061 TRADES. ONE FORMULA. They don't predict price. They measure what state the market is in right now. Markov chains, transition matrix, each cell - the probability of transitioning from state A to state B. The matrix diagonal - the probability that the market stays where it is. Entry only when the diagonal is above 0.87. Two conditions: the gap between model and market is greater than 5%, and the state is stable. Both must be true. One function, runs every minute. Bot 1 - Bonereaper. BTC and ETH, hourly windows, entry at 83-97¢. The market agrees with the direction but underestimates the confidence. 4-19% on every resolution. Low variance. Bot 2 - 0xe1D6. Dual mode, directional scalps at 64-83¢ deliver 20-54% per trade. In parallel, locks at 99.5-99.8¢. Best trade: entry at 64.7¢, return 54.6%. Bot 3 - 0xB27BC. Five assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP. Five-minute windows. One trade every 1.7 minutes. Variance 55% lower at the same expected return. The real edge - 3:00 AM. People are asleep. The market posts lazy, stale prices. The gap between model and market is maximal when no one is watching. 0.034% per trade sounds like nothing. Over 16,000 trades that's *240. The law of large numbers turns noise into an exponent. Kelly criterion f* ≈ 0.71 - aggressive enough to grow, conservative enough not to go to zero. As long as people misprice short windows - the edge exists. You don't need to predict. You need to measure. The market rewards those who understand probability. The rest just provide liquidity.

zostaff

61,629 views • 2 months ago

Shayne Coplan (Shayne Coplan 🦅), CEO of Polymarket on Brian Armstrong's legendary Coinbase earnings call performance - and why people increasingly rely on Polymarket as a source of truth: "He said it, I went to Polymarket and looked at the mention market. I was like, 'Oh, okay.' I went in order and was like, 'Damn. Wow, he really went for it.' '' 'Just before this, one of the professors they introduced me to was like, 'I was in Israel, and I needed to leave because the Polymarket odds were going up for an escalation.' And I've heard that now almost a dozen times on separate occasions.''
5:11

Shayne Coplan (Shayne Coplan 🦅), CEO of Polymarket on Brian Armstrong's legendary Coinbase earnings call performance - and why people increasingly rely on Polymarket as a source of truth: "He said it, I went to Polymarket and looked at the mention market. I was like, 'Oh, okay.' I went in order and was like, 'Damn. Wow, he really went for it.' '' 'Just before this, one of the professors they introduced me to was like, 'I was in Israel, and I needed to leave because the Polymarket odds were going up for an escalation.' And I've heard that now almost a dozen times on separate occasions.''

ascetic

119,654 views • 1 month ago

THE FORMULA BEHIND EVERY BAYESIAN TRADE ON POLYMARKET - FREE STANFORD LECTURE Stanford teaches Bayes' Theorem in a free 1-hour lecture this is the exact math behind the 5 formulas in that article save this 👇
1:14:36

THE FORMULA BEHIND EVERY BAYESIAN TRADE ON POLYMARKET - FREE STANFORD LECTURE Stanford teaches Bayes' Theorem in a free 1-hour lecture this is the exact math behind the 5 formulas in that article save this 👇

Mr. Buzzoni

104,389 views • 2 months ago

It takes just 9 minutes of this lecture from the MIT to understand how a 273-year-old formula continues to generate profits Bayes' theorem is one of the best formulas for trading on the basis of market sentiment Save this video and watch it to apply the formula on the Polymarket then, read the article
8:50

It takes just 9 minutes of this lecture from the MIT to understand how a 273-year-old formula continues to generate profits Bayes' theorem is one of the best formulas for trading on the basis of market sentiment Save this video and watch it to apply the formula on the Polymarket then, read the article

bodila

43,135 views • 2 months ago