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Last semester a professor pulled me aside after class. "You trade prediction markets?" - he asked. I said yeah, mostly vibes. He laughed and said that's why you're losing. He spent 20 minutes on a whiteboard showing me Bayes' Theorem, Kelly Criterion, and LMSR pricing. Said this is literally... how quant funds approach binary markets. I took photos of everything. Went home, opened Claude, pasted my notes and said: “build me a bot that does exactly this 3 hours later I had a working Bayesian trading bot for Polymarket BTC markets. Here's the math it runs on every single trade: - Bayesian update update beliefs before entering P(H|D) = P(D|H) · P(H) / P(D) - Edge detection -only trade if you have an edge EV = p̂ − p_market - Kelly sizing-bet exactly the right amount f* = EV / p̂(1−p̂) - LMSR pricing how Polymarket actually prices markets p(q) = e^{q/b} / Σe^{qⱼ/b} (it's literally the softmax function from neural networks) 65% win rate. Losses happen. Kelly keeps them from blowing the account. Compounding does the rest. My CLAWD BOT turned $100 into $1000 in 30min The professor was right. Vibes don't compound. Math does.show more

AdiiX

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HOW DOES THIS QUANT BOT PRINT $12,422 IN PROFIT PER DAY +$211,174 PnL in 17 days on Polymarket Only on short crypto “Up / Down” markets On Mar 25, this wallet switched to a high-frequency market-making style using Bayesian + Stoikov pricing rule P(H|D) = P(D|H) · P(H) / P(D) Bayesian lets the bot update its internal probability before the market fully reprices the odds This Quant Bot's wallet: f = (bp - q) / b* - Kelly is what tells the bot how hard to size into the edge r = s - qγσ²(T - t) - Stoikov is what keeps quote placement and inventory risk under control So this is not some dumb script that just buys both sides It is a quantitative system that finds pricing errors, decides size, and manages exposure in real time Here is what that looks like in actual trades: $8,378.10 → $34,940.49 (+317.05%) $5,741.82 → $22,458.91 (+291.15%) $26,446.28 → $41,749.47 (+57.87%) At the center of the strategy is one very simple rule: YES + NO < 100¢

HOW DOES THIS QUANT BOT PRINT $12,422 IN PROFIT PER DAY +$211,174 PnL in 17 days on Polymarket Only on short crypto “Up / Down” markets On Mar 25, this wallet switched to a high-frequency market-making style using Bayesian + Stoikov pricing rule P(H|D) = P(D|H) · P(H) / P(D) Bayesian lets the bot update its internal probability before the market fully reprices the odds This Quant Bot's wallet: f = (bp - q) / b* - Kelly is what tells the bot how hard to size into the edge r = s - qγσ²(T - t) - Stoikov is what keeps quote placement and inventory risk under control So this is not some dumb script that just buys both sides It is a quantitative system that finds pricing errors, decides size, and manages exposure in real time Here is what that looks like in actual trades: $8,378.10 → $34,940.49 (+317.05%) $5,741.82 → $22,458.91 (+291.15%) $26,446.28 → $41,749.47 (+57.87%) At the center of the strategy is one very simple rule: YES + NO < 100¢

Daniro

13,077 views • 5 months ago

HOW DOES THIS QUANT BOT PRINT $21,389 IN PROFIT PER DAY +$363,618 PnL in 17 days on Polymarket Only on short crypto “Up / Down” markets On Mar 15, this wallet switched to a high-frequency market-making style using Bayesian + Stoikov pricing rule P(H|D) = P(D|H) · P(H) / P(D) Bayesian lets the bot update its internal probability before the market fully reprices the odds This Quant Bot's wallet: Trader funded this account with $14,827 and now sits at roughly 24.5x on deposit (+2,452% ROI) f = (bp - q) / b* - Kelly determines how large the position should be r = s - qγσ²(T - t) - Stoikov handles quote placement and inventory risk An arbitrage bot is not just buying both sides. It is a mathematical engine that detects mispricing, sizes the trade, and controls risk in real time This is what that looks like in practice: $17,839 → $36,318 (+103.58%) $3,112 → $15,011 (+382.22%) $10,676 → $22,178 (+107.74%) The core logic is simple: YES + NO < 100¢

HOW DOES THIS QUANT BOT PRINT $21,389 IN PROFIT PER DAY +$363,618 PnL in 17 days on Polymarket Only on short crypto “Up / Down” markets On Mar 15, this wallet switched to a high-frequency market-making style using Bayesian + Stoikov pricing rule P(H|D) = P(D|H) · P(H) / P(D) Bayesian lets the bot update its internal probability before the market fully reprices the odds This Quant Bot's wallet: Trader funded this account with $14,827 and now sits at roughly 24.5x on deposit (+2,452% ROI) f = (bp - q) / b* - Kelly determines how large the position should be r = s - qγσ²(T - t) - Stoikov handles quote placement and inventory risk An arbitrage bot is not just buying both sides. It is a mathematical engine that detects mispricing, sizes the trade, and controls risk in real time This is what that looks like in practice: $17,839 → $36,318 (+103.58%) $3,112 → $15,011 (+382.22%) $10,676 → $22,178 (+107.74%) The core logic is simple: YES + NO < 100¢

Daniro

46,114 views • 5 months ago

HOW DOES THIS QUANT BOT PRINT $10,561 IN PROFIT PER DAY +$401,307 PnL in one month on Polymarket Only on short crypto “Up or Down” markets On Feb 16, this wallet switched to a market-making style using Bayesian + Kelly + Stoikov pricing rule P(H|D) = P(D|H) · P(H) / P(D) Bayesian is used to update the bot’s internal probability faster than the market updates its odds Wallet using this model: r = s - qγσ²(T - t) - Stoikov is used to manage quoting and inventory risk f = (bp - q) / b* - Kelly is used to size the position This is why an arbitrage bot is not just “buying both sides”. It is a stack of models that mathematically estimates edge, sizes positions, and manages risk in real time This is how these formulas work: $4,508.76 → $11,293.72 (+150.48%) $3,043.75 → $9,212.02 (+202.65%) $6,695.96 → $12,473.57 (+86.28%) Claude tells me: this is the basic set of every arbitrage strategy

HOW DOES THIS QUANT BOT PRINT $10,561 IN PROFIT PER DAY +$401,307 PnL in one month on Polymarket Only on short crypto “Up or Down” markets On Feb 16, this wallet switched to a market-making style using Bayesian + Kelly + Stoikov pricing rule P(H|D) = P(D|H) · P(H) / P(D) Bayesian is used to update the bot’s internal probability faster than the market updates its odds Wallet using this model: r = s - qγσ²(T - t) - Stoikov is used to manage quoting and inventory risk f = (bp - q) / b* - Kelly is used to size the position This is why an arbitrage bot is not just “buying both sides”. It is a stack of models that mathematically estimates edge, sizes positions, and manages risk in real time This is how these formulas work: $4,508.76 → $11,293.72 (+150.48%) $3,043.75 → $9,212.02 (+202.65%) $6,695.96 → $12,473.57 (+86.28%) Claude tells me: this is the basic set of every arbitrage strategy

Daniro

31,829 views • 5 months ago

My dad looked at my screen and said "what is this, a hacker game?" It was a Polymarket bot making $400 while he was standing behind me He sat down. I explained Polymarket runs on one equation - softmax. The same math Claude uses to pick the next word C(q) = b · ln Σ e^(qi/b) 93% of traders don't know this formula exists They look at 40¢ and think "cheap" My bot looks at 40¢ and calculates the theoretical price is 58¢ I'm use for copytrade bots: That's an 18-cent edge per share Two more formulas do the rest: f* = (p·b − q) / b - Kelly Criterion. P(H|E) = P(E|H)·P(H) / P(E) - Bayes. I gave Claude all 4 and said "find every contract the market has wrong" $600 → $10,190. 425 trades. Still running 61.2% win rate - wrong 39% of the time. Doesn't matter. The sizing formula makes sure wins pay more than losses cost 87% of wallets lose money trading against this math The 4 formulas are on Wikipedia. The code fits in one file The only edge: my bot reads them at 3 AM when the market is mispriced and nobody's looking My dad still calls it a hacker game. But he stopped asking when I'm getting a "real job" Only math + code, no more

My dad looked at my screen and said "what is this, a hacker game?" It was a Polymarket bot making $400 while he was standing behind me He sat down. I explained Polymarket runs on one equation - softmax. The same math Claude uses to pick the next word C(q) = b · ln Σ e^(qi/b) 93% of traders don't know this formula exists They look at 40¢ and think "cheap" My bot looks at 40¢ and calculates the theoretical price is 58¢ I'm use for copytrade bots: That's an 18-cent edge per share Two more formulas do the rest: f* = (p·b − q) / b - Kelly Criterion. P(H|E) = P(E|H)·P(H) / P(E) - Bayes. I gave Claude all 4 and said "find every contract the market has wrong" $600 → $10,190. 425 trades. Still running 61.2% win rate - wrong 39% of the time. Doesn't matter. The sizing formula makes sure wins pay more than losses cost 87% of wallets lose money trading against this math The 4 formulas are on Wikipedia. The code fits in one file The only edge: my bot reads them at 3 AM when the market is mispriced and nobody's looking My dad still calls it a hacker game. But he stopped asking when I'm getting a "real job" Only math + code, no more

Lunar

108,420 views • 6 months ago

HOW DOES THIS QUANT BOT PRINT $2,000 IN PROFIT PER DAY +$71,961 PnL in 36 days on Polymarket Only on short crypto “Up / Down” markets On Mar 24, this wallet switched to a high-frequency market-making style using Bayesian + Stoikov pricing rule P(H|D) = P(D|H) · P(H) / P(D) The highest-profit trades already make the pattern clear: $706.07 → $1,633.32 (+131.33%) $596.32 → $1,396.80 (+134.24%) $358.65 → $1,098.47 (+206.28%) This Quant Bot’s wallet: The model does not just react to direction. It updates probability first, then decides whether the market is still lagging enough to justify size f = (bp - q) / b* ; Kelly is the sizing layer that decides how much capital should actually be deployed once the edge is confirmed. r = s - qγσ²(T - t) ; Stoikov is the quoting logic that keeps inventory under control while the bot keeps leaning into mispricing. Everything still comes back to one simple condition on Polymarket: { YES + NO < 100¢ }

HOW DOES THIS QUANT BOT PRINT $2,000 IN PROFIT PER DAY +$71,961 PnL in 36 days on Polymarket Only on short crypto “Up / Down” markets On Mar 24, this wallet switched to a high-frequency market-making style using Bayesian + Stoikov pricing rule P(H|D) = P(D|H) · P(H) / P(D) The highest-profit trades already make the pattern clear: $706.07 → $1,633.32 (+131.33%) $596.32 → $1,396.80 (+134.24%) $358.65 → $1,098.47 (+206.28%) This Quant Bot’s wallet: The model does not just react to direction. It updates probability first, then decides whether the market is still lagging enough to justify size f = (bp - q) / b* ; Kelly is the sizing layer that decides how much capital should actually be deployed once the edge is confirmed. r = s - qγσ²(T - t) ; Stoikov is the quoting logic that keeps inventory under control while the bot keeps leaning into mispricing. Everything still comes back to one simple condition on Polymarket: { YES + NO < 100¢ }

Daniro

10,143 views • 4 months ago

My dad looked at my screen and said what is this, a hacker game? It was a Polymarket bot making $400 while he was standing behind me. He sat down. I explained. Polymarket runs on one equation. Softmax. The same math Claude uses to pick the next word. C(q) = b · ln Σ e^(qi/b) 93% of traders do not know this formula exists. They look at 40 cents and think cheap. My bot looks at 40 cents and calculates the theoretical price is 58 cents. That is an 18-cent edge per share. Two more formulas do the rest: f = (p·b − q) / b. Kelly Criterion. P(H|E) = P(E|H)·P(H) / P(E). Bayes. I gave Claude all 4 and said find every contract the market has wrong. $600 to $10,190. 425 trades. Still running. 61.2% win rate. Wrong 39% of the time. Does not matter. The sizing formula makes sure wins pay more than losses cost. 87% of wallets lose money trading against this math. The 4 formulas are on Wikipedia. The code fits in one file. The only edge: my bot reads them at 3 AM when the market is mispriced and nobody is looking. My dad still calls it a hacker game. But he stopped asking when I am getting a real job. I built the entire framework: Softmax arbitrage detection layer Kelly Criterion position sizing Bayesian probability recalibration Claude integration for autonomous execution 3 AM mispricing scanner The system runs 24/7. Finds where the math disagrees with the crowd. Executes before the edge compresses. No prediction. No gut feel. Just formulas. You only need Claude + device + 1 hour per day. Giving this free for 24 hours. To get it: 1. Comment the word money 2. Like and retweet this 3. Follow me Himanshu Kumar so I can DM you Save this post. Deploy the formula system this week. Start with $600. Scale on evidence.

My dad looked at my screen and said what is this, a hacker game? It was a Polymarket bot making $400 while he was standing behind me. He sat down. I explained. Polymarket runs on one equation. Softmax. The same math Claude uses to pick the next word. C(q) = b · ln Σ e^(qi/b) 93% of traders do not know this formula exists. They look at 40 cents and think cheap. My bot looks at 40 cents and calculates the theoretical price is 58 cents. That is an 18-cent edge per share. Two more formulas do the rest: f = (p·b − q) / b. Kelly Criterion. P(H|E) = P(E|H)·P(H) / P(E). Bayes. I gave Claude all 4 and said find every contract the market has wrong. $600 to $10,190. 425 trades. Still running. 61.2% win rate. Wrong 39% of the time. Does not matter. The sizing formula makes sure wins pay more than losses cost. 87% of wallets lose money trading against this math. The 4 formulas are on Wikipedia. The code fits in one file. The only edge: my bot reads them at 3 AM when the market is mispriced and nobody is looking. My dad still calls it a hacker game. But he stopped asking when I am getting a real job. I built the entire framework: Softmax arbitrage detection layer Kelly Criterion position sizing Bayesian probability recalibration Claude integration for autonomous execution 3 AM mispricing scanner The system runs 24/7. Finds where the math disagrees with the crowd. Executes before the edge compresses. No prediction. No gut feel. Just formulas. You only need Claude + device + 1 hour per day. Giving this free for 24 hours. To get it: 1. Comment the word money 2. Like and retweet this 3. Follow me Himanshu Kumar so I can DM you Save this post. Deploy the formula system this week. Start with $600. Scale on evidence.

Himanshu Kumar

13,333 views • 2 months ago

$This guy built a Bayesian Quant model and it made $1,362 a day on Polymarket The result is already +$29,972 PnL in 22 days with only $29 per average trade, repeating the same setup 9 times every hour across BTC "Up or Down" markets Several AI agents can handle probability, sizing and execution: 1. Every new BTC signal updates the probability through Bayes The model starts with a prior probability and updates it whenever new market data arrives: P(A|B) = P(B|A) × P(A) / P(B) If BTC momentum strengthens and the model moves fair Up from 54% to 62% while Polymarket still trades at 53¢, the system sees a 9¢ gap 2. Kelly decides position size f* = (bp - q) / b Where: p = model probability of winning q = 1 - p b = net payout for each unit risked f* = suggested fraction to allocate Higher probability and better payout increase f*, while a weaker edge pushes it toward zero This trader’s Polymarket account: tiredofwinning2much Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this bot: 4,948 predictions with a 51% win rate Most profitable trades: $260 → $615 (+$355) $253 → $602 (+$349) $227 → $560 (+$333) A similar Bayesian Quant setup can be built with Grok Bot, using AI agents for probability updates, sizing and execution$

This guy built a Bayesian Quant model and it made $1,362 a day on Polymarket The result is already +$29,972 PnL in 22 days with only $29 per average trade, repeating the same setup 9 times every hour across BTC "Up or Down" markets Several AI agents can handle probability, sizing and execution: 1. Every new BTC signal updates the probability through Bayes The model starts with a prior probability and updates it whenever new market data arrives: P(A|B) = P(B|A) × P(A) / P(B) If BTC momentum strengthens and the model moves fair Up from 54% to 62% while Polymarket still trades at 53¢, the system sees a 9¢ gap 2. Kelly decides position size f* = (bp - q) / b Where: p = model probability of winning q = 1 - p b = net payout for each unit risked f* = suggested fraction to allocate Higher probability and better payout increase f*, while a weaker edge pushes it toward zero This trader’s Polymarket account: tiredofwinning2much Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this bot: 4,948 predictions with a 51% win rate Most profitable trades: $260 → $615 (+$355) $253 → $602 (+$349) $227 → $560 (+$333) A similar Bayesian Quant setup can be built with Grok Bot, using AI agents for probability updates, sizing and execution

Daniro

59,829 views • 5 days ago

I gave Claude one prompt and it built me a bot that turned $200 into $14,000 on Polymarket No insider info, no lucky guess Just one equation nobody reads - and a bot that runs it 24/7 The price on Polymarket isn't set by people It's set by one formula - LMSR. You trade against pure math, not traders C(q) = b × ln(Σ e^(qi / b)) Someone buys 50 YES shares → price jumps from 50¢ to 62¢ It's softmax — same math GPT uses to pick the next word. Not a coincidence Then I found b — the liquidity parameter b = 50 → one whale swings the market 20% b = 100,000 → barely moves Half my old trades were in thin pools. One order wrecked my fill How much to bet? Kelly criterion f* = (p × b − q) / b 60% edge → Kelly says 20%. Pros use quarter-Kelly → 5% Not exciting. But you won't blow up Last piece. Price impact Contract at 40¢. You buy 1,000 shares - price climbs to 60¢ The edge disappears before you're filled I fed all of this into Claude. One prompt. 40 minutes. The bot checks b, sizes with Kelly, models impact - and executes before I finish my coffee b filters the pool. Kelly sizes the bet. Impact curve tells me where the edge dies I don't predict outcomes. The bot just reads the math

I gave Claude one prompt and it built me a bot that turned $200 into $14,000 on Polymarket No insider info, no lucky guess Just one equation nobody reads - and a bot that runs it 24/7 The price on Polymarket isn't set by people It's set by one formula - LMSR. You trade against pure math, not traders C(q) = b × ln(Σ e^(qi / b)) Someone buys 50 YES shares → price jumps from 50¢ to 62¢ It's softmax — same math GPT uses to pick the next word. Not a coincidence Then I found b — the liquidity parameter b = 50 → one whale swings the market 20% b = 100,000 → barely moves Half my old trades were in thin pools. One order wrecked my fill How much to bet? Kelly criterion f* = (p × b − q) / b 60% edge → Kelly says 20%. Pros use quarter-Kelly → 5% Not exciting. But you won't blow up Last piece. Price impact Contract at 40¢. You buy 1,000 shares - price climbs to 60¢ The edge disappears before you're filled I fed all of this into Claude. One prompt. 40 minutes. The bot checks b, sizes with Kelly, models impact - and executes before I finish my coffee b filters the pool. Kelly sizes the bet. Impact curve tells me where the edge dies I don't predict outcomes. The bot just reads the math

rari

52,212 views • 6 months ago

My dad asked me why I stare at Python scripts at 3am instead of sleeping. "I'm not trading. I'm calculating." Every price on Polymarket comes from one equation: P(i) = exp(qᵢ / b) / Σ exp(qⱼ / b) This is the softmax function. The same math that GPT uses to pick the next word - Polymarket uses to price every contract. Most traders see 40¢ and think "cheap." I see 40¢ and check the liquidity parameter. b = 50 → one whale swings the market 20% b = 100,000 → barely moves I'm use for copytrade bots Gluon: Half my old trades were in thin pools. One order wrecked my fill. I was losing money to the formula I didn't know existed. So I learned it. Then I built a bot around it. EV = true_prob × (1 - market_price) - (1 - true_prob) × market_price The bot checks b, calculates EV, sizes with Kelly: f* = (p × b - q) / b And executes before my morning coffee gets cold. $200 starting bankroll. 6 weeks later: $18,700. I didn't predict a single outcome. The bot just reads the math that 93% of traders ignore. Full breakdown - LMSR, expected value, Kelly sizing, 5 cognitive traps

My dad asked me why I stare at Python scripts at 3am instead of sleeping. "I'm not trading. I'm calculating." Every price on Polymarket comes from one equation: P(i) = exp(qᵢ / b) / Σ exp(qⱼ / b) This is the softmax function. The same math that GPT uses to pick the next word - Polymarket uses to price every contract. Most traders see 40¢ and think "cheap." I see 40¢ and check the liquidity parameter. b = 50 → one whale swings the market 20% b = 100,000 → barely moves I'm use for copytrade bots Gluon: Half my old trades were in thin pools. One order wrecked my fill. I was losing money to the formula I didn't know existed. So I learned it. Then I built a bot around it. EV = true_prob × (1 - market_price) - (1 - true_prob) × market_price The bot checks b, calculates EV, sizes with Kelly: f* = (p × b - q) / b And executes before my morning coffee gets cold. $200 starting bankroll. 6 weeks later: $18,700. I didn't predict a single outcome. The bot just reads the math that 93% of traders ignore. Full breakdown - LMSR, expected value, Kelly sizing, 5 cognitive traps

Lunar

217,746 views • 6 months ago

My ex laughed when she saw me writing Python scripts instead of going to interviews. "You're calculating… weather probabilities?" I was. Every market on Polymarket runs on one equation: C(q) = b · ln Σ e^(qi/b) It's called LMSR. The same math that GPT uses to pick the next word - Polymarket uses to price beliefs. 93% of traders don't know this formula exists. They look at 40¢ and think "cheap." I look at 40¢ and calculate the theoretical price is 60¢. That's a 20-cent edge per share. One position: market at 0.35, my model said 0.55. Bought in. Market resolved. +$4,200. But the real edge isn't the formula. It's what happens after. I'm use for copytrade bots: Kelly criterion says bet 20% of your bankroll. Every pro I've studied bets 5%. Base rates, not gut feelings. Bayesian updates, not Twitter threads. 93% of Polymarket wallets lose money. They trade on vibes while the math is sitting on Wikipedia. My roommate just asked me to explain the formula to him. I wrote an entire breakdown - LMSR, expected value, Kelly sizing, the 5 cognitive traps that blow up accounts.

My ex laughed when she saw me writing Python scripts instead of going to interviews. "You're calculating… weather probabilities?" I was. Every market on Polymarket runs on one equation: C(q) = b · ln Σ e^(qi/b) It's called LMSR. The same math that GPT uses to pick the next word - Polymarket uses to price beliefs. 93% of traders don't know this formula exists. They look at 40¢ and think "cheap." I look at 40¢ and calculate the theoretical price is 60¢. That's a 20-cent edge per share. One position: market at 0.35, my model said 0.55. Bought in. Market resolved. +$4,200. But the real edge isn't the formula. It's what happens after. I'm use for copytrade bots: Kelly criterion says bet 20% of your bankroll. Every pro I've studied bets 5%. Base rates, not gut feelings. Bayesian updates, not Twitter threads. 93% of Polymarket wallets lose money. They trade on vibes while the math is sitting on Wikipedia. My roommate just asked me to explain the formula to him. I wrote an entire breakdown - LMSR, expected value, Kelly sizing, the 5 cognitive traps that blow up accounts.

Lunar

192,972 views • 6 months ago

The best Polymarket Quant bot for copy trading with a 99.3% win rate The bot doesn't take risks it uses math and statistics to consistently achieve a 99% win probability. Using this approach, it has earned +$805,000 across 29,184 predictions with 99.3% accuracy Here's a breakdown of its algorithm: 1. Price Mispricing Detection δ = actual win probability − implied probability Traders constantly overpay for cheap contracts (0.1–50¢), but the main edge is concentrated in contracts (80–99¢) that's exactly where the bot trades 2. Expected Value (EV) Calculation EV = (P_win × Payout) − (P_loss × Cost) Shows whether a bet is worth placing regardless of the outcome of any single trade 3. Kelly Criterion f* = (p × b − q) / b The most powerful position sizing formula ever discovered for trading and prediction markets Tells the algorithm what percentage of your portfolio to put into each bet to win in the long run His profile: Those who copy traded him have already made $35,000 But those who followed him and used Poly_Parlay made over $100,000 How? By simply mirroring his trades with a multiplier Instead of opening single trades, they added them all to a basket, so the odds multiplied Bot access:

sopersone

15,781 views • 4 months ago

Polymarket just got mathematically robbed. Top 0.04% already took 70% of all the money ($3.7B) thanks to 4 formulas from this article below. Open the leaderboard and there he is. [0x8dxd]: $2,285,751 ALL-TIME profit. Joined Dec 2025. $41.2K biggest win. 31,570 predictions. Not luck. Not "feeling the market". This is a bot running strictly on Lunar’s formulas on autopilot: Formula 1 - Expected Value (When to Enter) Contract at 40¢, but your real probability assessment is 60% -> +20¢ edge per dollar. Claude calculates this in seconds. Formula 2 - Kelly Criterion (How Much to Bet) f = (p·b − q)/b* (Quarter Kelly - that's why he doesn't blow up and compounds without any emotion) Formula 3 - Bayesian Updating (How to Change Your Mind) P(H|E) = [P(E|H) × P(H)] / P(E) Instantly rebuilds probability on any news. Formula 4 - Log Returns (Real Profit Calculation) Regular arithmetic lies. Only log returns show the real picture. Scans 50+ markets at once, enters only 15-min BTC Up/Down with real edge (where [0x8dxd] prints +157%, +207%, +181%), sleeps the rest of the time. 87% of wallets are in the red. A few such bots take everything. And this guy didn't just write an article - he handed out the blueprint that's already working for [0x8dxd]. Don't want to code it yourself? Just copy this trader with You can runs exactly this system: the same 4 formulas + Claude + auto-copying top math. Add his wallet: 0x63ce342161250d705dc0b16df89036c8e5f9ba9a to [ and start track/copy him right now. 4 formulas from Wikipedia + Claude brain + Kreo execution = meta 2026. The math doesn't sleep. Your FOMO does. Save and use this.

Polymarket just got mathematically robbed. Top 0.04% already took 70% of all the money ($3.7B) thanks to 4 formulas from this article below. Open the leaderboard and there he is. [0x8dxd]: $2,285,751 ALL-TIME profit. Joined Dec 2025. $41.2K biggest win. 31,570 predictions. Not luck. Not "feeling the market". This is a bot running strictly on Lunar’s formulas on autopilot: Formula 1 - Expected Value (When to Enter) Contract at 40¢, but your real probability assessment is 60% -> +20¢ edge per dollar. Claude calculates this in seconds. Formula 2 - Kelly Criterion (How Much to Bet) f = (p·b − q)/b* (Quarter Kelly - that's why he doesn't blow up and compounds without any emotion) Formula 3 - Bayesian Updating (How to Change Your Mind) P(H|E) = [P(E|H) × P(H)] / P(E) Instantly rebuilds probability on any news. Formula 4 - Log Returns (Real Profit Calculation) Regular arithmetic lies. Only log returns show the real picture. Scans 50+ markets at once, enters only 15-min BTC Up/Down with real edge (where [0x8dxd] prints +157%, +207%, +181%), sleeps the rest of the time. 87% of wallets are in the red. A few such bots take everything. And this guy didn't just write an article - he handed out the blueprint that's already working for [0x8dxd]. Don't want to code it yourself? Just copy this trader with You can runs exactly this system: the same 4 formulas + Claude + auto-copying top math. Add his wallet: 0x63ce342161250d705dc0b16df89036c8e5f9ba9a to [ and start track/copy him right now. 4 formulas from Wikipedia + Claude brain + Kreo execution = meta 2026. The math doesn't sleep. Your FOMO does. Save and use this.

slash1s

20,164 views • 6 months ago

How to Build and Turn $15k into $1.1M in 20 Days Using Arbitrage Bot Claude Bot scaled a deposit up to $1.1M By trading 5-min and 15-min markets on Polymarket Bot using this strategy: - Mispricing formula - Expected value calculation - Kelly Criterion sizing mispricing found → EV calced → kelly sizing → enter > 25,123 trades > 83.9% win rate > +1.1M profit > Biggest win 33K Check this profile here: Copytrading: If you wish to do the same I have outlined exactly how to create your own bot in my article Which is also where I told the story of how Claude turned $300 into 2.4M in 4 months This week I will write an article “Why your bot isn’t working and how to fix it” So follow and save this post

AdiiX

33,954 views • 5 months ago

Chinese student used AI from Anthropic to turn $1,000 into $1,500,000 He studies at Tsinghua University in Beijing. His account is k9Q2m In such a young age he already make a million simply knowing the right formulas and being able to use Claude Result: $1,430 → $1,550,750 44,364 trades Win rate 100% The biggest win $23,600 on a single bet k9Q2m profile: How it bots work: The bot runs 6 formulas hedge funds use simultaneously, every tick. Most traders guess. This bot calculates. Formula 1 - LMSR Pricing Polymarket prices move on a logarithmic curve. The bot knows the exact price impact before entering. Market says 31¢ for BTC up in 5 minutes. The model sees the curve is mispriced. The bot enters before the correction. Formula 2 - Kelly Criterion Renaissance Capital uses it. Two Sigma uses it. Now your bot uses it. Every bet is sized exactly right. Never too big to blow the account. Never too small to matter. $1,000 bankroll. Consistent edge. Kelly compounds it into something real. Formula 3 - EV Gap Detection The bot scans every BTC market looking for one thing: - Where is the market price wrong by more than 5%? - Market says 30¢. Real probability is 55¢. EV = +0.52. The bot enters. Most people never see this gap. The bot never misses it. Formula 4 - KL-Divergence BTC 5-minute and 15-minute markets are correlated. When they drift apart - that's an arb. The bot measures the statistical distance between them every second. When it crosses 0.2, it flags the trade. This is how hedge funds extracted $100K+ on correlated election markets. The same logic runs here. Formula 5 - Bayesian Updates New block confirmed. Volume spike. Price movement. The bot doesn't ignore signals - it updates. Prior probability was 54%. New data comes in. Posterior jumps to 71%. The bot re-prices in real time while the market is still asleep. Formula 6 - Stoikov Execution Entering at the wrong moment kills the edge. The bot calculates the reservation price-the exact point where the risk-adjusted entry makes sense. It doesn't chase. It doesn't panic. It waits for the right tick, then fills What this means in practice: - Every few seconds the bot runs all six formulas in parallel. - If LMSR confirms mispricing - EV gap is above 5% - Kelly says the bet size is justified - Bayesian posterior agrees - KL-divergence flags the correlated drift - Stoikov clears the execution price Only then does the bot enter. Six filters. One trade. This isn't a trading bot. It's a hedge fund strategy running on a prediction market. The edge is real. The math is public. The difference is most people never build it. Just insert all these formulas into Claude and create your own bot Add this post to bookmarks so you don’t lose it Soon I will publish another bot with working formulas

AdiiX

719,007 views • 6 months ago

THIS WALLET STACKED $230K ON BTC UP/DOWN BETS. THE BLUEPRINT TO AUTOMATE THE SAME EDGE WITH CLAUDE The wallet is $230K all-time, every position a Bitcoin or Ethereum Up or Down market It never guesses direction. It enters only when the math and the market disagree THE STRATEGY: BTC moves are not fully random. When the market enters a committed directional state, continuation is measurable. That is Markov persistence Entry signal: > Δ = p̂ − q ≥ ε Model probability minus market price. Enter only on a 5% gap or more Persistence filter: > p(j*,j*) ≥ 0.87 Only trade states with 0.87 persistence or higher. Below that, skip. This is what holds the win rate above 65% with zero directional guessing Payout: > r = (1 − q) / q At q = 0.647 that is +54.5% a win. At q = 0.441, +126.7%. Lower entry price, bigger asymmetry Sizing: > f* = p − (1−p)/b Kelly. At p = 0.87, b = 0.647, f* ≈ 0.71. Size to the edge, never to gut HOW TO BUILD IT WITH CLAUDE: What separates this from a static bot: Claude reads its own trade journal every night and rewrites its own thresholds 1. Take an open-source Polymarket bot repo as your base logic. Feed it to Claude and have it migrate to CLOB v2: py_clob_client_v2, Safe wallet support, fee-aware evaluation 2. Hard-code the filters. Enter only when Δ ≥ 0.05 and p(j*,j*) ≥ 0.87. Apply Kelly on every fill. 3. Run DRY_RUN first. Log every signal, entry price, Markov state, and simulated P/L. No real money until the numbers hold for days 4. The nightly loop. Claude reads the journal, finds which persistence states actually won, adjusts MIN_PROB and MIN_EDGE, ships tomorrow's rules. The agent is sharper after 50 to 100 trades THE SETUP: Claude Opus as the brain. An open-source repo as the starting logic. A Polygon wallet with $50 to $100. Telegram for the morning report Start at $1 to $2 per trade while it learns. Scale only when the dry runs and the live fills line up 17,000 trades compound a thin edge into six figures. The model finds the edge. The nightly loop keeps it sharp Bookmark before you point a bot at your first window

THIS WALLET STACKED $230K ON BTC UP/DOWN BETS. THE BLUEPRINT TO AUTOMATE THE SAME EDGE WITH CLAUDE The wallet is $230K all-time, every position a Bitcoin or Ethereum Up or Down market It never guesses direction. It enters only when the math and the market disagree THE STRATEGY: BTC moves are not fully random. When the market enters a committed directional state, continuation is measurable. That is Markov persistence Entry signal: > Δ = p̂ − q ≥ ε Model probability minus market price. Enter only on a 5% gap or more Persistence filter: > p(j,j) ≥ 0.87 Only trade states with 0.87 persistence or higher. Below that, skip. This is what holds the win rate above 65% with zero directional guessing Payout: > r = (1 − q) / q At q = 0.647 that is +54.5% a win. At q = 0.441, +126.7%. Lower entry price, bigger asymmetry Sizing: > f* = p − (1−p)/b Kelly. At p = 0.87, b = 0.647, f* ≈ 0.71. Size to the edge, never to gut HOW TO BUILD IT WITH CLAUDE: What separates this from a static bot: Claude reads its own trade journal every night and rewrites its own thresholds 1. Take an open-source Polymarket bot repo as your base logic. Feed it to Claude and have it migrate to CLOB v2: py_clob_client_v2, Safe wallet support, fee-aware evaluation 2. Hard-code the filters. Enter only when Δ ≥ 0.05 and p(j,j) ≥ 0.87. Apply Kelly on every fill. 3. Run DRY_RUN first. Log every signal, entry price, Markov state, and simulated P/L. No real money until the numbers hold for days 4. The nightly loop. Claude reads the journal, finds which persistence states actually won, adjusts MIN_PROB and MIN_EDGE, ships tomorrow's rules. The agent is sharper after 50 to 100 trades THE SETUP: Claude Opus as the brain. An open-source repo as the starting logic. A Polygon wallet with $50 to $100. Telegram for the morning report Start at $1 to $2 per trade while it learns. Scale only when the dry runs and the live fills line up 17,000 trades compound a thin edge into six figures. The model finds the edge. The nightly loop keeps it sharp Bookmark before you point a bot at your first window

Yarchi

22,966 views • 3 months ago

HOW TO TURN $15K INTO $1.1 MILLION IN JUST 20 DAYS WITH A KILLER ARBITRAGE BOT A sophisticated Claude-powered bot took a starting deposit and scaled it all the way up to $1.1 million. It crushed the 5-minute and 15-min markets on Polymarket using a rock-solid strategy built on: - Mispricing detection formula. - Expected value calculation. - Kelly Criterion position sizing. The flow is simple and deadly effective: mispricing spotted -> EV calculated -> Kelly sizing applied -> position entered. Results speak louder than words: > 25,123 trades executed > 83.9% win rate > +$1.1M pure profit > Biggest single win: $33K 70% win rate, 7 wallets copytrading rn from ~500 monitored, bot never paused, never gambling, just math and profit Giving This Free for 24 hours. To get it: 1. Comment the word 'Claude' 2. Like and Retweet this post 3. Follow me Marry Evan (so i can DM you)

HOW TO TURN $15K INTO $1.1 MILLION IN JUST 20 DAYS WITH A KILLER ARBITRAGE BOT A sophisticated Claude-powered bot took a starting deposit and scaled it all the way up to $1.1 million. It crushed the 5-minute and 15-min markets on Polymarket using a rock-solid strategy built on: - Mispricing detection formula. - Expected value calculation. - Kelly Criterion position sizing. The flow is simple and deadly effective: mispricing spotted -> EV calculated -> Kelly sizing applied -> position entered. Results speak louder than words: > 25,123 trades executed > 83.9% win rate > +$1.1M pure profit > Biggest single win: $33K 70% win rate, 7 wallets copytrading rn from ~500 monitored, bot never paused, never gambling, just math and profit Giving This Free for 24 hours. To get it: 1. Comment the word 'Claude' 2. Like and Retweet this post 3. Follow me Marry Evan (so i can DM you)

Marry Evan

12,648 views • 5 months ago

Stanford student fed Claude a book with 151 trading strategies and turned $87 into $213,000 in one week His account is 0xB27 He gave him one task: -find an edge on Polymarket BTC markets Claude analyzed 550 mathematical formulas in 2 minutes and said that most of them don’t work in prediction markets and explained why what remained: → momentum on 5m/15m/1h → binary markets systematically overestimate short-term BTC volatility → there is a gap between what the market thinks and what the data shows He wrote a bot over the weekend from March 4 to today: → 3,426 trades → biggest win: $11,900 on a single position → the account is public, you can check it Profile: “I’m not a trader, I didn’t have trading education, I had a book and Claude”-he says cost of entry: one book and a few prompts The link to the book will be under the post 👇🏼 Just insert PDF files into Claude and create your own bot Add this post to bookmarks so you don’t lose this PDF If you’re interested in which 5 prompts he used to set up the bot Like, repost, comment STANFORD and I’ll send them to you in DM The main thing is to be subscribed so I can DM you

AdiiX

47,582 views • 5 months ago

A month ago my coworker quit. Everyone assumed he got a better offer. Yesterday we got coffee and I asked where he landed. He said nowhere and showed me his phone making $150 a day. He was already there when I walked in. No bag, no laptop. Looked like someone who had been getting full nights of sleep for a while. He asked if I remembered those Polymarket weather markets I brought up at lunch once. I said vaguely. He said he found a wallet that trades them and set up a bot to copy everything it does. He turned his phone around. Notifications from PMX every couple of hours. Green numbers. I asked how it actually works. He said the wallet buys weather positions at 3 or 4 cents per share. When the forecast is right it pays out a dollar. The bot copies every trade into his account automatically. He does not pick anything. I asked which wallet. He sent me the link: He said most days it covers what he used to make at the office. Some days he checks his phone and it has already passed that by lunch. I asked what he does with his time now. He said he went to the gym at 10 on a Tuesday and nobody told him he couldn't. We finished our coffees. I walked back to the office. His old desk is still empty by the window.

A month ago my coworker quit. Everyone assumed he got a better offer. Yesterday we got coffee and I asked where he landed. He said nowhere and showed me his phone making $150 a day. He was already there when I walked in. No bag, no laptop. Looked like someone who had been getting full nights of sleep for a while. He asked if I remembered those Polymarket weather markets I brought up at lunch once. I said vaguely. He said he found a wallet that trades them and set up a bot to copy everything it does. He turned his phone around. Notifications from PMX every couple of hours. Green numbers. I asked how it actually works. He said the wallet buys weather positions at 3 or 4 cents per share. When the forecast is right it pays out a dollar. The bot copies every trade into his account automatically. He does not pick anything. I asked which wallet. He sent me the link: He said most days it covers what he used to make at the office. Some days he checks his phone and it has already passed that by lunch. I asked what he does with his time now. He said he went to the gym at 10 on a Tuesday and nobody told him he couldn't. We finished our coffees. I walked back to the office. His old desk is still empty by the window.

Blaze

21,205 views • 7 months ago

I MADE 3 AI AGENTS FIGHT FOR MY MONEY ON POLYMARKET Claude: $100 → $10,264 in 24 hours OpenClaw: broke even OpenAI: liquidated Same market. Same bankroll. Same window. Three different outcomes. OpenAI got a prompt and an API key. Traded on vibes. Vibes cost $100. OpenClaw had Kelly sizing and filters. Stayed alive. Didn't print. Claude had Perplexity behind it. Deep Research across 47+ sources before a single trade fired. NOAA forecasts, top trader wallets, fee structures, forecast accuracy - full strategy map in 10 minutes. NOAA says 94% on a temperature bucket. Market prices it at 11¢. Claude buys. Corrects to 47¢. Sells. 6 cities. 60+ markets. 720 scans per day. Try to copytrady claudebot: Claude - 312 trades, 71% win rate, P&L: +$10,164 OpenClaw - 89 trades, 52% win rate, P&L: +$12 OpenAI - 41 trades, 34% win rate, P&L: -$100 Perplexity does the thinking. Claude pulls the trigger. Polymarket pays.

I MADE 3 AI AGENTS FIGHT FOR MY MONEY ON POLYMARKET Claude: $100 → $10,264 in 24 hours OpenClaw: broke even OpenAI: liquidated Same market. Same bankroll. Same window. Three different outcomes. OpenAI got a prompt and an API key. Traded on vibes. Vibes cost $100. OpenClaw had Kelly sizing and filters. Stayed alive. Didn't print. Claude had Perplexity behind it. Deep Research across 47+ sources before a single trade fired. NOAA forecasts, top trader wallets, fee structures, forecast accuracy - full strategy map in 10 minutes. NOAA says 94% on a temperature bucket. Market prices it at 11¢. Claude buys. Corrects to 47¢. Sells. 6 cities. 60+ markets. 720 scans per day. Try to copytrady claudebot: Claude - 312 trades, 71% win rate, P&L: +$10,164 OpenClaw - 89 trades, 52% win rate, P&L: +$12 OpenAI - 41 trades, 34% win rate, P&L: -$100 Perplexity does the thinking. Claude pulls the trigger. Polymarket pays.

rari

28,040 views • 5 months ago

a kid who can't pass a statistics exam just outperformed every quant fund on wall street $263,762 in 30 days his entire infrastructure costs less than a netflix subscription he didn't build models. he didn't study distributions. he didn't read a single quant textbook. he told claude "find me free money on polymarket" and went to sleep the bot found 5-minute crypto markets eth up or down. sol up or down. new market every 5 minutes. 24/7. the math is stupidly simple: expected value per trade = (0.65 × $0.35) − (0.35 × $0.65) = +$0.10 over 17,518 trades that's $1,751 pure edge per 1000 trades kelly criterion says bet 4.6% of bankroll per position compound that 17,518 times and you get a quarter million wall street quants mass 300 PhDs and mass billions in infra to build models that lose money half the time this kid mass a mac mini and a prompt the bot doesn't sleep. doesn't doubt. doesn't hesitate. 6 new trades appeared while i was writing this sentence i don't know what scares me more that a college dropout is mass hedge funds or that he genuinely doesn't understand why it works i asked him if i could copy his trades he said "i don't care, the bot doesn't even notice" so i put his wallet on Kreo and now i just watch

a kid who can't pass a statistics exam just outperformed every quant fund on wall street $263,762 in 30 days his entire infrastructure costs less than a netflix subscription he didn't build models. he didn't study distributions. he didn't read a single quant textbook. he told claude "find me free money on polymarket" and went to sleep the bot found 5-minute crypto markets eth up or down. sol up or down. new market every 5 minutes. 24/7. the math is stupidly simple: expected value per trade = (0.65 × $0.35) − (0.35 × $0.65) = +$0.10 over 17,518 trades that's $1,751 pure edge per 1000 trades kelly criterion says bet 4.6% of bankroll per position compound that 17,518 times and you get a quarter million wall street quants mass 300 PhDs and mass billions in infra to build models that lose money half the time this kid mass a mac mini and a prompt the bot doesn't sleep. doesn't doubt. doesn't hesitate. 6 new trades appeared while i was writing this sentence i don't know what scares me more that a college dropout is mass hedge funds or that he genuinely doesn't understand why it works i asked him if i could copy his trades he said "i don't care, the bot doesn't even notice" so i put his wallet on Kreo and now i just watch

Argona

16,662 views • 6 months ago