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My interview CNN International Despite the significant damage inflicted on Iran's nuclear program, it has not been eliminated. Tehran retains important elements of its nuclear capability, and the current absence of IAEA inspectors combined with satellite imagery that appears to show renewed activity at sites such as Mount the...

16,171 views • 29 days ago •via X (Twitter)

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Military and political analyst Elijah Magnier says the clearest sign the U.S lost the Iran war is that nobody is talking about Tehran's nuclear program anymore; they're fighting over the Strait of Hormuz. America went into this focused on Iran's nuclear program, its ballistic missiles, and regional proxies. Now Trump is arguing about who gets to control Hormuz, and Elijah thinks that tells you everything about how badly the original strategy failed. Iran's missile programme is still operational, its nuclear programme has been pushed into future negotiations, and its regional proxies remain part of Tehran's strategic calculations. Yet Washington's attention is now almost entirely consumed by a source of Iranian leverage that barely existed before the war: Hormuz. Elijah says Iran has effectively pulled off a strategic sleight of hand. For years, the world obsessed over Tehran's nuclear programme while Iran quietly built an enormous missile arsenal. Those missiles eventually gave Iran the ability to absorb American and Israeli attacks and continue retaliating across the region. Now he thinks they're doing it again. Everyone is staring at the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Iran is rebuilding missiles, maintaining its regional relationships, and buying time on the nuclear issue. Trump even briefly proposed charging ships a 20% fee to pass through the Strait. That lasted barely 24 hours before he replaced it with demands for massive Gulf investment in America. To Elijah, the whole episode exposed something much deeper. Washington says this is about freedom of navigation. But Trump accused Iran of monetizing Hormuz, then immediately tried to monetize it himself. Suddenly, the argument wasn't whether the Strait should be used as leverage; it was who gets to control it and collect the money, and Iran jumped on the contradiction immediately. Elijah's argument is that Trump has trapped himself. He entered the war determined to strip Iran of its leverage, but instead, he's handed Tehran a weapon it didn't have before. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

315,624 views • 26 days ago

Mu interview BBC News (World) regarding the situation at Hormuz Straits: The renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz should not come as a surprise. While President Trump argues that the United States emerged victorious from the conflict, Tehran appears to believe that it also achieved its core strategic objectives. From Iran's perspective, maintaining leverage in the Strait of Hormuz is essential. Iranian leaders understand that U.S. sanctions can be imposed or lifted at Washington's discretion, making control over or the ability to threaten maritime traffic one of the few enduring sources of strategic leverage available to Tehran. The current situation also reflects the limitations of a hastily negotiated understanding that, did not fully address two of the most significant potential spoilers: Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz. The fundamental question is what the administration's long-term strategy toward Iran actually is. Washington may ultimately face difficult tradeoffs between pursuing a durable diplomatic agreement and seeking to fundamentally alter the balance of power in the Strait of Hormuz. If the objective is merely to conduct limited punitive strikes, they may have only a temporary effect on Iranian behavior while increasing the risk of undermining diplomacy. If, however, the objective is to fundamentally change the strategic reality in the Strait, that would likely require a far larger and more sustained military commitment, with significant costs and risks. The administration will therefore need to determine which objective it prioritizes most, because these different approaches may not be fully compatible. #IranWar‌

Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش

17,349 views • 1 month ago

My interview CNN International: A. The negotiations were never expected to be easy. However, at a fundamental level, both sides have an interest in reaching some form of agreement. The mediators will have to work very hard to bridge the significant gaps that remain. Still, as President Trump himself acknowledged, diplomacy remains the best available option for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and addressing concerns regarding Iran's enriched uranium stockpile. B. The Lebanese issue remains a major potential spoiler. Israel, which is not a party to any potential agreement, is not necessarily enthusiastic about a deal that could undermine its broader strategy of maintaining maximum pressure on Iran. While Israel continues to conduct operations in Lebanon to address legitimate security concerns, its long-term strategy is not entirely clear. From Israel's perspective, and with encouragement from Washington, the most constructive path forward would be to accelerate negotiations with the Lebanese government, withdraw where possible, and allow the Lebanese Armed Forces to assume control over the relevant areas in accordance with existing understandings. C. Iran may be prepared to offer limited concessions on its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, particularly given the severe economic damage it has suffered following the war. However, if policymakers in Washington believe they can leverage Iran's economic weakness to secure major concessions on its regional power projection, support for proxy groups, or far-reaching additional nuclear restrictions, they are likely to be disappointed. These issues are deeply rooted in the ideological foundations of the Islamic Republic and are viewed by the leadership as core national security interests rather than negotiable bargaining chips.

Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش

27,376 views • 1 month ago

Iran has proposed a deal to the U.S. to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, while deferring nuclear talks to a later stage. President Trump has summoned a Situation Room meeting today to decide Washington’s response. Why accepting this deal by the U.S. would be a defeat for the United States and a big victory for Iran, let’s understand in simple language: The Strait of Hormuz was open before the war, and it will be open after the war once peace is restored. Then what was the objective of this war? This will remain a big question. The initial objectives of the U.S. and Israel were regime change, seizing enriched uranium, and destroying Iran’s nuclear and long-range missile programs. Have they achieved any of these? No. Rather, after this deal, the Islamic regime will intensify its nuclear weapons and long-range missile programs without hesitation because they now know the weakness of the United States. Postponing discussions on the nuclear program indirectly means that Iran is not going to stop. What are the future repercussions of this deal? Many independent journalists have reported that the current IRGC chief, Ahmad Wahidi, has ordered an intensification of the nuclear weapons development program. After a few months or years, Iran may have a nuclear bomb. Once Iran acquires nuclear weapons and long-range missiles, neither the United States nor any other country will be able to save Israel. The Islamic regime has the intent but not the capability to target the U.S. mainland; the day they gain that capability, they will target the U.S. mainland. In short, we can say that this is a trap for the U.S.

Baba Banaras™

36,866 views • 3 months ago