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MY MOM wanted to know why I wasn't sleeping at 3am, but was stuck in Python files I'm not gambling. I'm doing the pricing Every Polymarket number is basically one line of math: P(i) = exp(qᵢ / b) / Σ exp(qⱼ / b) Yep, softmax. Same mechanism GPT uses...

26,384 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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I deleted all my Polymarket positions at 2am on a Tuesday because I realized I was winning 54% of my bets and still down $11,400. It took me three weeks to understand that sentence. Fifty four percent wins. Why is the balance shrinking? The math was brutal once I finally saw it. I was buying outcomes at 55 to 65 cents feeling smart because my picks kept winning. But the payout at those prices was so thin that one loss wiped out five wins. My edge was maybe 3% and the spread was eating 4%. I dug into the data hoping to find a way to trade better and instead found a number that made me want to close the app. 70% of all Polymarket addresses are in the red. And the profits? Captured by 0.04% of wallets. Four thousand addresses out of 1.7 million own almost everything. I was playing a game where 96% of participants exist to fund the other 4%. But the trades of those wallets are public. Every entry, every exit, sitting on the blockchain. I started tracking them manually. One wallet broke me. It started January 6 with $50. By the time I found it the balance was close to $500,000. Pulling $20 to $30K a day on 15 minute BTC, ETH and SOL markets, exploiting the fact that Binance updates faster than Polymarket odds. A few seconds of lag, hundreds of times a day. I scrolled its history for an hour trying to find a losing streak. Could not. That is when I stopped doing this by hand. Set up PMX. Alerts the second a tracked wallet moves, one tap copy. → Link to bot: Three weeks of shadowing instead of trading. Made back $4,200 of my $11,400 hole. Not because I got smarter. Because I stopped pretending I was the edge. The game on Polymarket is not about being right. It is about standing behind someone who already is. I am still not in profit. But for the first time in four months my balance moves the right direction and I sleep through the night. That is worth more than any win.

Blaze

13,874 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

I rebuilt my Polymarket weather bot Launched a simulation with $1,000 An hour later, it was already $1,250. Another hour later - $680 The problem was simple: the forecast changed, but the bot didn't know about it and continued to hold its position That's exactly what I'm fixing in version v2 What I'm adding: 1. Expected Value EV = (p · b) − (1 − p) Before every entry the bot calculates expected value. Negative EV - no trade. But EV is useless if p comes from nowhere 2. Kelly Criterion f* = (p · b − q) / b Determines exactly how much to bet based on real edge Small edge → small position. Large edge → larger. Fixed sizing can't do this 3. Brier Score BS = (1/n) · Σ(fₜ − oₜ)² Measures how accurate our probabilities actually are. If the bot assigned 80% but the outcome won 40% of the time - Brier Score catches that 4. Calibration on own data After each trade the bot saves city, month, bucket, forecast at entry, final result History accumulates → bot calculates Brier Score on its own trades → if Chicago in March is consistently off - p for that city and month gets adjusted automatically 5. Adding new data sources Instead of relying on a single source, the bot will draw on several sources at once, and if the forecasts match, it will enter into a trade Every cycle of v2: - scan markets - check station forecast - apply calibration - calculate EV - apply Kelly - enter or skip - monitor every minute - close if forecast changes Btw, here's a short video clip showing the terminal in action A major update is coming soon

Alter Ego

50,642 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

Yesterday at 3 AM Claude Code called me I woke up, picked up the phone, and on the screen was a message: "Wallet entered BTC Up at 11 cents. Open Polymarket?" I said yes and went back to sleep Claude Code unlocked my 2nd phone on its own, opened Polymarket, found the right market, entered the amount, and hit Buy. I could see all of it in real time through the web interface on my laptop. Screenshots from the phone updating every second. By morning the position closed in profit Let me tell you how I got here A week ago I asked Claude Code to write a script that pulls on-chain data from Polymarket and ranks wallets by win rate on 15-minute BTC markets In 20 minutes I had a table with hundreds of addresses, and 1 of them stood apart from the rest. More than 200 trades per day, surgical entry precision, and a profit curve going straight up I fed that address back into Claude Code and asked it to break down the strategy. Turns out the wallet monitors BTC volatility on Binance and Bybit every 100 milliseconds, and when it drops below 0.08% it enters Up and Down simultaneously at 25 to 35 cents A pure straddle: 1 side burns and the other flies to a dollar, giving 3 to 4x per position. Dozens of times a day I wanted to follow it but signals came at any hour, and waking up every 15 minutes for a notification was simply impossible. So I built something else Took an old Android phone and installed an agent running on the Qwen3-VL visual model. It sees what is happening on the screen and mimics human actions through ADB: taps, swipes, text input. Then I connected it to Claude Code as the executor Now the chain works like this: Claude Code monitors the wallet, sees a new position, calls me. And if I say "yes" or just do not pick up within 30 seconds, the agent on the phone opens Polymarket on its own and copies the entry Essentially I built myself an autopilot out of 2 AI systems: 1 thinks and the other presses buttons. I just sleep and occasionally pick up the phone → Here is the wallet the whole thing is tracking: For those who do not want to build a setup like this there is a Telegram bot that handles the 1st part: tracks this wallet and sends a signal on every new entry: AI calls me at 3 AM to ask permission to spend my money A year ago this would have sounded like schizophrenia. Now it is just Tuesday

Blaze

56,524 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

For 6 months I woke up at 5 AM to catch Asian markets on Polymarket. During that time I lost my girlfriend, gained 8 kg, and got used to drinking coffee instead of breakfast Then I wrote an agent that monitors everything for me while I sleep. In the 1st month income went up 15% and I finally deleted the 5 AM alarm Turns out a half-asleep human trades worse than a 200-line script I thought discipline meant waking up early. In reality it was just stubbornness that cost me money and health. When I finally sat down to build the agent it became clear why Here is what is under the hood: 1. Sentiment analysis powered by Claude. Every 15 minutes the agent runs a feed from 40+ Asian sources: Reuters Asia, Nikkei, South China Morning Post, Yonhap 2. NLP tone classification. It compares sentiment shifts to open markets on Polymarket through the API, and if the news has already dropped but the odds have not reacted yet that is the entry window 3. Kelly criterion. A mathematical formula for position sizing instead of my usual "I will bet more, feeling lucky" 4. A hard stop at 5% of the deposit per trade so that 1 mistake cannot kill the entire account 5. A cooldown between entries so the agent does not stack up a cluster of correlated positions These are exactly the rules I was missing at 5 AM. I knew them perfectly well but consistently ignored them because on adrenaline and caffeine every bet felt like an "obvious opportunity" When I ran a backtest on my old trades it was genuinely painful: 60% of the bets I placed by hand in a half-asleep state would have been rejected by the agent for failing the expected value filter Those were the exact ones dragging the whole result down When I was building my agent I needed a benchmark. A wallet that already trades on similar logic so I could compare my results to someone else's Found 1 that works almost like a mirror of what I described: same Asian markets, same cold calculation without emotion. I still keep it bookmarked and periodically check how it handles the same situations: That is actually the wallet I started with when testing auto-copying through a bot before I launched my own agent. A useful thing if you want to see how a strategy works on someone else's example first and only then build your own:

Blaze

126,979 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

behind of yesterday’s tiktok ⭐️ 🐰 the ‘tree’ challenge that i did yesterday…i did it because i wanted to 🐰 as soon i saw it, i was like “i need to do this” it’s so funny 🐰 that’s actually not what i was going to film that day, it was supposed to be a sexy challenge but i’m not really good at those kind of challenges where you have to be like “look at my sexiness”, even with performances i prefer doing something that’s more light so i told them that there was something else i wanted to do instead of that one and they asked me what i wanted to do so i showed them the ‘tree’ challenge and said that that’s what i wanted to do 🐰 we actually save the ones that we’d like to do and bring it with us so we can show it to them 🐰 when i showed it to them, they loved it and were like the “let’s do this! let’s do it right away!” 🐰 i wasn’t going to film a challenge that day so it was a very sudden filming and i was wearing sandals…something like slippers with nothing covering my heels so they kept coming off my feet when i was doing the step 🐰 i think i filmed it about 5 times, i filmed it many times 🐰 “you should’ve done the sexy one” i mean…i can do it if i have to but i’m not good at it…doing something sexy on stage is fine but being like “wow look at me 😏” is not something i particularly like either 🐰 i like doing light performances and i think that’s what suits me as well 🐰 each person has something that suits them 🐰 yeonjun hyung & beomgyu are excessively coy when they’re on stage and they’re people that suit that kind of thing but i feel like i’m not someone that suits it 🐰 i think i suit light concepts better 🐰 i don’t know about suiting because everyone will have a different opinion but i personally like that better!

💬

40,919 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

Grok Bot is officially available in Tesla vehicles! I had early access for my Grok Bot team to be integrated directly inside my Cybertruck with the help of the SpaceXAI and Cursor team. And this is truly one of those things that’s hard to fully understand the power of it until you actually lived with it. It’s the same Grok Voice experience you already know in your Tesla… no separate app is needed. When you’re signed into Grok, your Grok Bots are right there and you can talk directly with all of them with just your voice. So today, Tesla FSD was driving me. I said, “Hey Grok.” Then I talked to my CEO bot like I would talk to someone working for me. I told it what I wanted for dinner tonight: 1/ Blueberries 2/ Strawberries 3/ Ribeye 4/ Shrimp 5/ And taco night for my family of four. That was it. I didn’t sit there searching for every single ingredient. I didn’t open Amazon and start building a cart item by item. I just explained what I wanted. Then, my CEO bot routed the job. My Chef bot figured out what we needed for taco night. Then my Amazon Cart Builder bot started putting the cart together and choosing the best items based on my purchase history. And while all of that was happening… FSD drove me to the gym and parked itself. I went inside and worked out. My bots kept working. And by the time I was finished, the cart was ready for me. I opened it. Looked everything over. Then I just clicked Order. Grok Bot + Tesla FSD completely removed all the manual work in between that would have wasted part of my day researching building a grocery list, getting the Amazon cart ready, and manually driving to my destination. And THAT was the wow moment for me… I just talked to Grok. FSD drove. I worked out. My Grok Bot team handled the busy work. When I finished the gym, the cart was simply just waiting for my approval. And all I had to do was click order. (btw you can make your Grok Bot place the order automatically as well, but I’m super picky with my food so mine are specifically built so I review it at the end). With this technology, you’re no longer opening five different apps and doing every tiny step yourself. You just tell your team what you want with your voice. They go work on it. You go live your life. The biggest upgrade here is that Grok Bot + Tesla FSD is giving us back the one thing we can never make more of… TIME. Grok Bot handles the work. Tesla FSD handles the drive. I get my time back. This is really the future… I’m glad people will be able to try out Grok Bot integrated with their Teslas today… this is truly life-changing technology.

Teslaconomics

552,270 görüntüleme • 7 gün önce

My dad told me I was wasting my life using Claude to analyze Polymarket wallets instead of "learning real trading" 2 weeks later he asked me why one weather market suddenly made someone $11,000 overnight. I didn’t know how to explain to him that half the market is now bots reacting to each other. So I started digging through GitHub trying to understand how deep this rabbit hole actually goes. The first repo that caught my attention was: A few hours later I found people building autonomous agents for Polymarket: That’s when the entire platform started looking different to me. One wallet made $87k trading weather markets. Another was making hundreds of trades a day while barely holding positions longer than 90 minutes. The highest-performing wallets didn’t even look human anymore. No emotional entries. No hesitation. No scrolling Twitter waiting for opinions. Just instant reactions to forecast changes, liquidity shifts and crowd behavior. Then I found this: And suddenly it clicked. Most people on Polymarket still think they’re trading events. They’re not. They’re trading how millions of emotional humans react to events in real time. Huge difference. One wallet I tracked kept entering positions BEFORE major sentiment swings happened. At first I thought it was luck. Then I realized the bot was monitoring forecast disagreements, Twitter activity and liquidity changes simultaneously. Humans physically cannot process information that fast anymore. Here wallet: The scary part is that almost all of this infrastructure is public. Most people just never open GitHub long enough to notice what's happening.

Lunar

54,853 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

$25K+ profit daily from 1 wallet, with OpenClaw. I have the exact step-by-step guide, giving it free for 24 hours. To get it: 1. Comment "OpenClaw" 2. Like and Retweet. 3. Follow me Himanshu Kumar ( So, i can send you DM) I ran a simple script last night with Claude Code. Pull on-chain data from Polymarket, sort by win rate on 15 minute BTC markets. 20 minutes later, 100s of wallets showed up. Most were losing money or barely breaking even. Then I spotted 1 address. 200+ trades daily, every single week profitable, timing so precise it looked robotic. Because it is. I fed the wallet address back into Claude Code. Asked it to reverse engineer the strategy. 20 mins later the full breakdown appeared on my screen. Here is how it works: Bot monitors Binance and Bybit every 100ms. Waiting for BTC volatility compression to drop below 0.08%. When it hits that level, it buys both Up and Down contracts at 25 to 35 cents each. Classic straddle play. 1 contract loses, the other rockets to a dollar. Entry at 30 cents means 3x to 4x return every time. Repeats dozens of times per day. Result: $13K to $25K profit daily from 1 wallet. No human intuition, no insider tips. Just an algorithm exploiting a gap in market mechanics. I searched to see if anyone else found this wallet. Turns out yes. There is a Telegram bot that auto-copies trades from wallets like this. I connected it to the same address. Every entry matched what my terminal showed. You can now copy-trade an algorithm in real time. That capability did not exist 12 months ago. Comment "OpenClaw" and I will send you everything. Must Follow me Himanshu Kumar to get the DM.

Himanshu Kumar

13,218 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

This is the account given by the woman featured in the video: A neighbor's Pit Bull kept escaping just to come sit on my porch. When I finally figured out why, I laughed before doing anything else. Not exactly the reaction my son - or even I - was expecting. For months, no one could make sense of it. He belonged to the family across the street. Young couple, two boys, the kind of household that refreshed their yard every spring and treated painting trim like a weekend project. And still... their dog kept leaving. Not to chase anything. Not to get into trouble. Not even to explore. He would cross the street, climb up my steps, and sit right at my front door like he had somewhere to be. The tirst time, I assumed he was lost. The second time, I figured their gate wasn't secure. By the third time, even his owners looked a little embarrassed — like this wasn't misbehavior anymore, it was determination. "I'm so sorry," the wife said one day, standing in my yard with an empty leash, slightly out of breath. "He got out again... and came straight here." I looked at him. Big head. White chest. Soft amber eyes beneath a face that would usually make people hesitate. There he was, sitting calmly on my porch in the quiet mountain sun, as steady as if he belonged there. When I opened the door, he didn't run. Didn't bark. He just leaned his warm body against my leg and let out a long, contented sigh. That was six years after my husband passed. Six years of living alone in Flagstaff. Six years of one cup, one plate, one empty side of the bed. People kept telling me I should get a dog, like love was something you could just pick back up when you felt ready. But I had already lost one great love. I wasn't looking for another bond that would one day leave me counting the silence again. So when that dog kept choosing my porch instead of his own home... I didn't feel chosen. I telt trapped. I just didn't know by what. It took time to understand. It wasn't pressure. It wasn't loss waiting to happen. It was something gentler. He wasn't replacing anything. He wasn't asking for anything I couldn't give. He just showed up. Again and again. Until the quiet didn't feel so heavy anymore. Eventually, his family and I stopped apologizing back and forth and started laughing about it instead. We worked out a rhythm — he'd visit, I'd keep the door open, and somehow, it all just fit. Now, he still comes by. Not because he's escaping. But because he has two homes. And for the first time in years, mine doesn't feel empty anymore.

Gabriele Corno

112,500 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

Back when I had nothing… I was a nobody to most people. TBH, my parents didn't even see me getting to where I am today. It's just the truth, the chips were stacked for my sister. Not me. But it's just not the reality today. However, there was ONE person in my life that didn’t see me that way. My significant other saw something in me before a lot of things. Before all my wins. Before the $. Before any proof. And honestly… that means a lot to me, if not the most of all. I’ve always been wired a little different. I’m a mix of finance, engineering, and tech, with a sprinkle of obsession. I learned and studied from the best. Warren Buffett for how to invest. Elon Musk for work ethic and where the future is going. And once I saw it… I went all in. Bc when you truly understand what you own… you don’t need 20 bets. What you really need is conviction and just a few bets. That’s how I approached everything in my life. All the way from Apple… to Tesla… to 𝕏… to xAI… and now SpaceX. I believe I have an eye for spotting the best entrepreneurs and companies early, before it becomes obvious to everyone. And when I see it, I back it 100%. That’s just who I am. I don’t need a big circle. I’ve already got my day ones. I don’t need approval. I grew up my whole life with doubt and hate, so what’s one more? At this point, the levels are just too different. And yeah… it's true, it actually gets harder to make new friends when you’re moving like this. So I stay loyal to the ones who were there when I had nothing. I made it with Apple - youngest in, youngest out. Then I made it with Tesla… while people were laughing, doubting, calling me crazy, telling me I was going to go bankrupt with Elon. Fast forward to today, now I'm heading into something even bigger. If the story plays out the way it’s shaping up… SpaceX could have the largest IPO in history this year. The company is talking about raising over $75B… at a $1.75-$2 trillion valuation. For context… the biggest IPO ever - Saudi Aramco - raised about $29B. This would be more than double that. Let that sink in deep. To me this is more than just an investment. This is owning a piece of the future of space, energy, AI... extending the light of consciousness forward in case something happens to Earth. People can call me crazy. People can call me cocky. Arrogant. But the people that actually know me know the truth - I’m just real AF. I say what I believe, and I stand on it. And I genuinely don’t care what people think. I have two middle fingers always held high for those kind of people. That’s probably why I’ve been able to win the way I have. My significant other tells me to slow down sometimes. And I get it. But for me… What’s the point of life if you play it safe? If you see an opportunity that can change everything… and you just sit back? That’s not me. I’d rather go all in on something I believe in… live with intensity… take the hits… and actually feel alive and live life with fulfillment. Laugh if you want, doubt if you want. Some play it safe, a few go all in. You can call it risky. You can call it stupid. You can call it crazy. I call it living. Bc at the end of the day, I'd rather go all in on something I believe in and fail... than spend my life wondering "what if."

Teslaconomics

29,404 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce