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Narrative violation from Dylan on Dwarkesh: H100s are worth more today than they were 3 years ago. There's a sentiment that data center buildouts are priced into the risk of rapidly depreciating GPUs. But the models want to learn. Token prices are falling so fast that you can get... show more

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The value produced by models is getting so much better so fast that old hardware is actually getting *more* expensive to rent. 3 years ago, the best model you could run on a H100 chip was GPT-4. Now, you can run GPT-5.4 on it, which is smaller and cheaper to run while producing much more valuable tokens. w. Dylan Patel

The value produced by models is getting so much better so fast that old hardware is actually getting more expensive to rent. 3 years ago, the best model you could run on a H100 chip was GPT-4. Now, you can run GPT-5.4 on it, which is smaller and cheaper to run while producing much more valuable tokens. w. Dylan Patel

Dwarkesh Patel

78,277 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

SemiAnalysis's Dylan Patel says AI models will improve faster in the next 6 month to a year than we saw in the past year because there's a new axis of scale that has been unlocked in the form of synthetic data generation, that we are still very early in scaling up

SemiAnalysis's Dylan Patel says AI models will improve faster in the next 6 month to a year than we saw in the past year because there's a new axis of scale that has been unlocked in the form of synthetic data generation, that we are still very early in scaling up

Tsarathustra

174,883 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Today, we expose Old World Maps and you don't want to miss the Old World UNDERGROUND Cities that we are going to expose today. A place that will change the way that we all think about the ground that we stand on. We find out that these Tunnel Systems are much more than we were ever told. They are not just hallways, and we expose this to the world today. We are told that these are found by a chicken… Let’s show the world that this place that we live, is so much more than we are taught.

Today, we expose Old World Maps and you don't want to miss the Old World UNDERGROUND Cities that we are going to expose today. A place that will change the way that we all think about the ground that we stand on. We find out that these Tunnel Systems are much more than we were ever told. They are not just hallways, and we expose this to the world today. We are told that these are found by a chicken… Let’s show the world that this place that we live, is so much more than we are taught.

MY LUNCH BREAK

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This is a reminder that Indigenous homelands are more than just a weekend trip this #LaborDay, they're the homes of our ancestors & the Native peoples that are still here today. We encourage you to learn more & find out whose lands you’re on:

This is a reminder that Indigenous homelands are more than just a weekend trip this #LaborDay, they're the homes of our ancestors & the Native peoples that are still here today. We encourage you to learn more & find out whose lands you’re on:

IllumiNative

11,217 Aufrufe • vor 3 Jahren

How does GPT-5 become GPT-6? Everything on the internet was already trained on a year, year and a half ago. New data is being added but it's marginal and a lot of it is AI slop. There is interesting private data (like JP Morgan's data) but nobody is opening that up. You don't go from GPT-5 to GPT-6 in isolation because that's not how learning works. Every learning that has ever occurred comes from having information to learn. You can't learn no information. cc Ground Zero / pod with Curtis from Handshake AI.

How does GPT-5 become GPT-6? Everything on the internet was already trained on a year, year and a half ago. New data is being added but it's marginal and a lot of it is AI slop. There is interesting private data (like JP Morgan's data) but nobody is opening that up. You don't go from GPT-5 to GPT-6 in isolation because that's not how learning works. Every learning that has ever occurred comes from having information to learn. You can't learn no information. cc Ground Zero / pod with Curtis from Handshake AI.

himanshu

10,684 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

CoreWeave co-founder brannin mcbee reveals the A100 demand through 2029 is a big narrative violation for a market that thought GPUs would only have 2 to 3 years of useful life: "You don't need the latest generation GPU for every workload. You can think about it as a matrix of different sizes of models versus different sizes of GPUs, and it all just gets filled in volumetrically and economically." "That A100 GPU will cost less on a dollar per hour basis than a brand-new GB300 GPU. But the workload fits most efficiently on that A100, and it ultimately comes down to the engineering organizations making those requests." "It's been a pretty big narrative violation for the market that thought that these GPUs would only have two to three years of useful life, and instead we're contracting GPUs out through its ninth year of life. We expect to see that repeated across subsequent SKUs as well." CoreWeave

MTS

11,699 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

At Every, all employees use agents + have unlimited token budgets. Since GPT-3, they've increased headcount from 4 to 30. "If you're actually on the frontier like we are," Dan Shipper 📧 said, "it seems like there's more human work to do than ever."

At Every, all employees use agents + have unlimited token budgets. Since GPT-3, they've increased headcount from 4 to 30. "If you're actually on the frontier like we are," Dan Shipper 📧 said, "it seems like there's more human work to do than ever."

TBPN

55,494 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Every year someone names a new bottleneck for AI compute scaling. Dylan Patel on why power isn't gonna be the big one over the next few years: fundamentally there's many different ways to generate power (rather than just one company that can produce the EUV tools needed for the chips themselves) and the supply chains are simpler and easier to ramp. You can do jet engines bolted to the ground. Ship engines. Diesel recips from auto manufacturers with declining volumes. Fuel cells. Each category alone delivers tens of gigawatts by end of decade. Combined, hundreds. Even if energy costs double, a GPU goes from $1.40/hr to $1.50/hr. Nobody notices a dime when the models are improving so fast the value dwarfs the cost. Even if you don't add more power, but simply add more batteries, you can unlock 20% more of the US's terawatt scale power grid. This is because grid utilities want to make sure they're sized for peak summer load that hits a few hours a year. With enough batteries, you can make this guarantee, even without turning on more power plants! Fundamentally, there's a lot of different ways to bring power online over the next few years. Building more logic and memory is far more difficult and centralized, so that's where Dylan thinks the bottleneck will be.

Every year someone names a new bottleneck for AI compute scaling. Dylan Patel on why power isn't gonna be the big one over the next few years: fundamentally there's many different ways to generate power (rather than just one company that can produce the EUV tools needed for the chips themselves) and the supply chains are simpler and easier to ramp. You can do jet engines bolted to the ground. Ship engines. Diesel recips from auto manufacturers with declining volumes. Fuel cells. Each category alone delivers tens of gigawatts by end of decade. Combined, hundreds. Even if energy costs double, a GPU goes from $1.40/hr to $1.50/hr. Nobody notices a dime when the models are improving so fast the value dwarfs the cost. Even if you don't add more power, but simply add more batteries, you can unlock 20% more of the US's terawatt scale power grid. This is because grid utilities want to make sure they're sized for peak summer load that hits a few hours a year. With enough batteries, you can make this guarantee, even without turning on more power plants! Fundamentally, there's a lot of different ways to bring power online over the next few years. Building more logic and memory is far more difficult and centralized, so that's where Dylan thinks the bottleneck will be.

Dwarkesh Patel

214,172 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

"Compute is the currency of the future." "Compute is the new OIL." Great, so how do I invest? You can play with the NVIDIA stock, or spin up an AI-Ready Data Center. Challenges of Spinning up AI-Ready Compute: Cost: Even a small cluster of H100 machines is upward to $10M GPU Scarcity: Unallocated or “underutilized” H100, A100, and RTX4090 GPUs are almost non-existent. Very Specific Physical & Technical Requirements: A data center with the right infrastructure is also very rare. There are only 10 in North America that deploy thousands of GPUs, in the open market. Domain Expertise: Teams of experts with the years of experience required to operate, deploy, and manage AI compute at scale are as rare as the GPUs they deploy. Exabits checks all of these boxes and we are the premier Compute Tokenization Platform. We are backed by REAL COMPUTE used by REAL CUSTOMERS.

"Compute is the currency of the future." "Compute is the new OIL." Great, so how do I invest? You can play with the NVIDIA stock, or spin up an AI-Ready Data Center. Challenges of Spinning up AI-Ready Compute: Cost: Even a small cluster of H100 machines is upward to $10M GPU Scarcity: Unallocated or “underutilized” H100, A100, and RTX4090 GPUs are almost non-existent. Very Specific Physical & Technical Requirements: A data center with the right infrastructure is also very rare. There are only 10 in North America that deploy thousands of GPUs, in the open market. Domain Expertise: Teams of experts with the years of experience required to operate, deploy, and manage AI compute at scale are as rare as the GPUs they deploy. Exabits checks all of these boxes and we are the premier Compute Tokenization Platform. We are backed by REAL COMPUTE used by REAL CUSTOMERS.

Exabits

13,896 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

Interesting that in three of my recent conversations with Krishna at Anthropic, Dylan Patel, and Gavin Baker, each said that frontier tokens are capturing the majority of the economic value. Gavin: "An overwhelming amount of the economic returns to AI at the model layer have been at the frontier. That's surprising to me, and I think it's been surprising to a lot of people. This is one of the most important questions to be answered, and you need to have a hypothesis on it as an investor." Krishna: "We think the returns to frontier intelligence are extremely high. Customers invest really heavily in more tokens with the newer models. The ones at the frontier clearly are capturing this economic value, driving meaningful ROI for customers. The returns to frontier intelligence are not slowing down." Dylan: "No one gives a crap about GPT-4 class models. They want the frontier because the frontier lets them create the economically valuable things."

Interesting that in three of my recent conversations with Krishna at Anthropic, Dylan Patel, and Gavin Baker, each said that frontier tokens are capturing the majority of the economic value. Gavin: "An overwhelming amount of the economic returns to AI at the model layer have been at the frontier. That's surprising to me, and I think it's been surprising to a lot of people. This is one of the most important questions to be answered, and you need to have a hypothesis on it as an investor." Krishna: "We think the returns to frontier intelligence are extremely high. Customers invest really heavily in more tokens with the newer models. The ones at the frontier clearly are capturing this economic value, driving meaningful ROI for customers. The returns to frontier intelligence are not slowing down." Dylan: "No one gives a crap about GPT-4 class models. They want the frontier because the frontier lets them create the economically valuable things."

Patrick OShaughnessy

121,392 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

20 years ago Jane Street's entire compute cluster was six Dell boxes stacked on the floor at the end of an office row. They called it the Hive. Last week they let Dwarkesh Patel walk through their new Texas data center. 4,032 GPUs. Each rack pulls 140 kilowatts. A normal data center rack pulls 10. 8,000 kilometers of fiber inside one building, and the fastest links are still copper because light moves more slowly through glass than electrons through metal. Bookmark it tonight. Then read the article below.

20 years ago Jane Street's entire compute cluster was six Dell boxes stacked on the floor at the end of an office row. They called it the Hive. Last week they let Dwarkesh Patel walk through their new Texas data center. 4,032 GPUs. Each rack pulls 140 kilowatts. A normal data center rack pulls 10. 8,000 kilometers of fiber inside one building, and the fastest links are still copper because light moves more slowly through glass than electrons through metal. Bookmark it tonight. Then read the article below.

zostaff

236,481 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

Californians across the state are being priced out of homeownership, rents are skyrocketing, and more than 170,000 Californians are living on our streets. It’s unacceptable. Two years ago today, I launched CA DOJ’s Housing Justice Team to tackle this crisis from all angles. 🧵

Californians across the state are being priced out of homeownership, rents are skyrocketing, and more than 170,000 Californians are living on our streets. It’s unacceptable. Two years ago today, I launched CA DOJ’s Housing Justice Team to tackle this crisis from all angles. 🧵

Rob Bonta

40,583 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal observes the scary double bind that compute prices 10xing puts hyperscalers in: "One of the stylized facts in recent years has been the extraordinary drop in token prices." "If you go back to GPT-3, token prices are down like 99.9%." "We think there's some iron law that token prices will get cheaper over time." "But maybe not. We thought there was an iron law that memory prices would drop over time. Or that any sort of hardware would drop over time." "But the story of the last two years is that that law can reverse." "It's not impossible to imagine that compute prices get significantly more expensive." "But that doesn't mean you can stop spending on it. Because you have to worry about hardening yourself for cybersecurity." "There's no, 'This is not economical for me anymore. I want to tap out of the whole AI race.'" "Well then, your competitor develops a stronger model. And then you're done. You're really done." "This is the scary thing. What if the situation is, you're bleeding free cash flow, but you also don't have the option to opt out of the game?"

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal observes the scary double bind that compute prices 10xing puts hyperscalers in: "One of the stylized facts in recent years has been the extraordinary drop in token prices." "If you go back to GPT-3, token prices are down like 99.9%." "We think there's some iron law that token prices will get cheaper over time." "But maybe not. We thought there was an iron law that memory prices would drop over time. Or that any sort of hardware would drop over time." "But the story of the last two years is that that law can reverse." "It's not impossible to imagine that compute prices get significantly more expensive." "But that doesn't mean you can stop spending on it. Because you have to worry about hardening yourself for cybersecurity." "There's no, 'This is not economical for me anymore. I want to tap out of the whole AI race.'" "Well then, your competitor develops a stronger model. And then you're done. You're really done." "This is the scary thing. What if the situation is, you're bleeding free cash flow, but you also don't have the option to opt out of the game?"

TBPN

92,708 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

The water main burst on Sunset was dramatic & unfortunate, but it’s a fairly frequent occurrence in L.A., where some of the pipes are more than 120 years old. So what are L.A. and LADWP doing to prevent more water main bursts? Let's get into it.

The water main burst on Sunset was dramatic & unfortunate, but it’s a fairly frequent occurrence in L.A., where some of the pipes are more than 120 years old. So what are L.A. and LADWP doing to prevent more water main bursts? Let's get into it.

L.A. in a Minute

13,317 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Trump is wrong that the US is ''totally independent of the Middle East'' — nobody is. "It's true that most of the oil that passes through the Strait of Hormuz heads to Asia, but the effects are rising prices everywhere. Americans are now paying more than $1 more at the pump than they were paying a month ago. The latest tally from AAA is $4.08," Ben Werschkul explains.

Trump is wrong that the US is ''totally independent of the Middle East'' — nobody is. "It's true that most of the oil that passes through the Strait of Hormuz heads to Asia, but the effects are rising prices everywhere. Americans are now paying more than $1 more at the pump than they were paying a month ago. The latest tally from AAA is $4.08," Ben Werschkul explains.

Yahoo Finance

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