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Nassim Taleb sat down with Daniel Kahneman - two of the sharpest minds on risk ever - and the takeaway was blunt: stop trying to be smart Kahneman's prospect theory explains why almost nobody can do what Taleb does We're wired to hate the steady trickle of small losses...

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0xDipper

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Qullamaggie on Why You Shouldn’t Take Low Quality Trades With Smaller Size “One more thing that’s really important: why you shouldn’t size down. You know, just to trade some good setup on an illiquid stock or a stock that is too illiquid for your account size. What you do is condition your brain to trade with smaller positions and smaller risk numbers. And when you get a good opportunity, like a big opportunity on a more liquid stock, you won’t have the confidence to take the correct size because you’ve spent a bunch of time conditioning your brain to trade smaller for no reason other reason than you can sit on your two hands and wait for a more liquid opportunity. You need to get out of the game and out of this mentality. You have to trade everything all the time; that’s not how trading works. Yes, in the past 12 months, it has worked like that, but once this main trend ends, you don’t know when it will end. It is going to end, and there are going to be slimmer opportunities.”

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A 50% reduction in hip fractures sounds like a miracle drug. Until you look at what 50% actually means. The drug was Fosamax. Alan Cassels, a health policy researcher who has spent 30 years auditing how drugs get sold, kept the ads. He still uses them in his lectures. More than 3,000 women were in the trial. All of them high risk: low bone density, previous fractures, all defined as having osteoporosis. Researchers followed them for four years. Two out of every hundred broke a hip. On the drug, one out of every hundred did. CASSELS: "When you go from 2 out of 100 down to 1 out of 100, that's a 50% drop." That was the number sold to patients, to doctors, to specialists. "And people went away thinking, this drug is miraculous." Cassels' question is what one broken hip per hundred women is worth against what the drug does to the other ninety-nine. "How does that compare to the rate of adverse effects? And we know that the rate of adverse effects are much greater than 1%." "So you're promoting this drug on the basis of a misleading reduction. And this happens all the time." We saw the same trick in 2021 when Pfizer and Moderna claimed the COVID vaccine was "95% effective." JAN JEKIELEK: "It's the difference between relative risk and absolute risk."
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13,722 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr