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Nassim Taleb ran a simple test: take two completely random, unrelated columns of numbers - noise, nothing else - and measure their correlation. with a small sample, you'll routinely see correlations of 0.4, 0.6, even higher. from pure randomness. now the trap. give a researcher many variables and few... data points - say 38 variables, 18 points each, which he says is far more common than you'd think - and let them hunt for the highest correlation. they'll always find a "strong" one. it means nothing. it's just the max of a pile of noise. "when you hear the word correlation, be suspicious." by his estimate, about half of published research is nonsense for exactly this reason. ~14-min talk, free. Taleb on the number that fools almost everyone ↓show more

0xDipper

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Nassim Taleb sat down with Daniel Kahneman - two of the sharpest minds on risk ever - and the takeaway was blunt: stop trying to be smart Kahneman's prospect theory explains why almost nobody can do what Taleb does We're wired to hate the steady trickle of small losses his strategy needs - even when one huge win more than pays for all of them So you structure it the other way: tiny safe bets plus a few wild ones, never the comfortable middle. "You'd rather be antifragile than intelligent - any time." "Trial and error is really just trial with small error." "Make your gains in small bites. Take your losses all at once." ~1 hr, free. two legends on risk, prediction, and how to win without forecasting ↓

Nassim Taleb sat down with Daniel Kahneman - two of the sharpest minds on risk ever - and the takeaway was blunt: stop trying to be smart Kahneman's prospect theory explains why almost nobody can do what Taleb does We're wired to hate the steady trickle of small losses his strategy needs - even when one huge win more than pays for all of them So you structure it the other way: tiny safe bets plus a few wild ones, never the comfortable middle. "You'd rather be antifragile than intelligent - any time." "Trial and error is really just trial with small error." "Make your gains in small bites. Take your losses all at once." ~1 hr, free. two legends on risk, prediction, and how to win without forecasting ↓

0xDipper

1,405,886 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Nassim Taleb asked a room full of quants: to trust an average, a normal bell curve needs ~30 data points. how many does an 80/20 "fat-tailed" world need? people guessed 200. 1,000. the real answer: 100 trillion. that's 10¹⁴ - because in fat-tailed data, one rare event dwarfs everything else, and until it shows up your sample is a lie. "you observe, you observe, you observe… until the crash." worse, the deception only runs one way. a wild distribution can disguise itself as calm - a calm one can't fake being wild. so the data almost always fools you downward, into thinking there's less risk than there is. the fix: stop estimating the average from the average. it doesn't work where it matters. ~25-min talk, free. Taleb on why your data is quietly lying about risk ↓

Nassim Taleb asked a room full of quants: to trust an average, a normal bell curve needs ~30 data points. how many does an 80/20 "fat-tailed" world need? people guessed 200. 1,000. the real answer: 100 trillion. that's 10¹⁴ - because in fat-tailed data, one rare event dwarfs everything else, and until it shows up your sample is a lie. "you observe, you observe, you observe… until the crash." worse, the deception only runs one way. a wild distribution can disguise itself as calm - a calm one can't fake being wild. so the data almost always fools you downward, into thinking there's less risk than there is. the fix: stop estimating the average from the average. it doesn't work where it matters. ~25-min talk, free. Taleb on why your data is quietly lying about risk ↓

0xDipper

202,314 Aufrufe • vor 12 Tagen

Nassim Taleb: pick two people at random If their combined height is 4.1m, it's basically 2.05 + 2.05. If their combined wealth is $36M, it's almost never 18 + 18 - it's ~$1,000 and ~$36M. Height lives in "Mediocristan," where the average tells you everything. Wealth - and markets - live in "Extremistan," where one event dominates the whole picture. Ruin there never comes from a string of bad days. It comes from a single one. ~1hr lecture, free. The Black Swan author at Cambridge on why the statistics you were taught break exactly where it matters. Being right on average means nothing if one tail empties the account.

Nassim Taleb: pick two people at random If their combined height is 4.1m, it's basically 2.05 + 2.05. If their combined wealth is $36M, it's almost never 18 + 18 - it's ~$1,000 and ~$36M. Height lives in "Mediocristan," where the average tells you everything. Wealth - and markets - live in "Extremistan," where one event dominates the whole picture. Ruin there never comes from a string of bad days. It comes from a single one. ~1hr lecture, free. The Black Swan author at Cambridge on why the statistics you were taught break exactly where it matters. Being right on average means nothing if one tail empties the account.

0xDipper

725,684 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Taleb: the worst single-day loss in market history was "a small setback." Nvidia shed $589B in a day on the DeepSeek scare - the biggest one-day wipeout ever. his take: that's noise. the stock was up an order of magnitude. giving back 17% means nothing. the real lesson - the whole AI trade leaned on one chip, one story. and people only notice the falls, never the rises. "Something goes from 1 to 10, goes back to 9, people freak out." "now it's no longer flawless. You have a small little chip on the glass." "Google came out of nowhere and displaced Alta Vista." ~4 min, Taleb on why the crash is "the beginning," not the bottom ↓

Taleb: the worst single-day loss in market history was "a small setback." Nvidia shed $589B in a day on the DeepSeek scare - the biggest one-day wipeout ever. his take: that's noise. the stock was up an order of magnitude. giving back 17% means nothing. the real lesson - the whole AI trade leaned on one chip, one story. and people only notice the falls, never the rises. "Something goes from 1 to 10, goes back to 9, people freak out." "now it's no longer flawless. You have a small little chip on the glass." "Google came out of nowhere and displaced Alta Vista." ~4 min, Taleb on why the crash is "the beginning," not the bottom ↓

0xDipper

441,585 Aufrufe • vor 22 Tagen

Dave Ramsey reveals why 0 out of 10,167 millionaires got wealthy using credit card points Hala Taha: "A lot of people are really interested in points, especially Gen Z, millennials. We're all about our points, getting free travel, free hotel, free flights. Why is that still a hard line for you?" Dave Ramsey: "The data doesn't say that it works. There's two major problems with that. 78% of the airline miles are never redeemed." "There's tons of data out there that show that a credit card versus cash is 12 to 21% more spending. And if you add to it, 'Oh, I'm getting points'... I'll even increase my spending yet more." "You gave up a dollar to get a penny? How's that increase wealth?" "We did the largest study of millionaires ever done at Ramsey Research, 10,167 of them, and the number of them that said, 'I became a millionaire because of my points' is zero." "It's a game, and you're playing with a multi-billion dollar company who has more algorithms tracking your behavior patterns than you can even imagine, and believe me, they're not coming out on the short end of this."

Dave Ramsey reveals why 0 out of 10,167 millionaires got wealthy using credit card points Hala Taha: "A lot of people are really interested in points, especially Gen Z, millennials. We're all about our points, getting free travel, free hotel, free flights. Why is that still a hard line for you?" Dave Ramsey: "The data doesn't say that it works. There's two major problems with that. 78% of the airline miles are never redeemed." "There's tons of data out there that show that a credit card versus cash is 12 to 21% more spending. And if you add to it, 'Oh, I'm getting points'... I'll even increase my spending yet more." "You gave up a dollar to get a penny? How's that increase wealth?" "We did the largest study of millionaires ever done at Ramsey Research, 10,167 of them, and the number of them that said, 'I became a millionaire because of my points' is zero." "It's a game, and you're playing with a multi-billion dollar company who has more algorithms tracking your behavior patterns than you can even imagine, and believe me, they're not coming out on the short end of this."

Hala Taha

73,371 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

On Friday, Bill Maher asked me if what happened with Biden at the disastrous debate with Trump was the same story as the Emperor's New Clothes. Me: The story of the Emperor's New Clothes is a story about common knowledge, because when the kid blurted it out, he actually wasn't telling anyone anything they didn't already know. They could see the Emperor was naked. But he still changed their knowledge, because by blurting it out with an earshot of the others, now everyone knew that everyone else knew that everyone else knew that everyone else knew. And what that allowed them to do is change their relationship with the Emperor, from obsequious deference to ridicule and scorn. And the thing about common knowledge in the social realm is that it's what props up our social relationships. And so when something is blurted out, then it can change everything. It changes the nature of your relationship with someone. Maher: And we do have sort of a modern version of the Emperor parable, which is Joe Biden. I mean, he was the Emperor who everyone wouldn't say had lost his marbles. I mean, is that not really the same story? Me: It is the same story, because opinion polls showed that after that disastrous debate with Trump, the number of people who thought that he was cognitively impaired didn't go up by that much. It went up by a few percentage points. But before, a majority of people thought that he was cognitively impaired. The difference is, when it's on TV, where you're watching it, you know that the rest of the country is watching it, you know the rest of the country knows the rest of the country, it's no longer private. It's common. And that's when he was challenged. That was the end. Bill Maher Real Time with Bill Maher

On Friday, Bill Maher asked me if what happened with Biden at the disastrous debate with Trump was the same story as the Emperor's New Clothes. Me: The story of the Emperor's New Clothes is a story about common knowledge, because when the kid blurted it out, he actually wasn't telling anyone anything they didn't already know. They could see the Emperor was naked. But he still changed their knowledge, because by blurting it out with an earshot of the others, now everyone knew that everyone else knew that everyone else knew that everyone else knew. And what that allowed them to do is change their relationship with the Emperor, from obsequious deference to ridicule and scorn. And the thing about common knowledge in the social realm is that it's what props up our social relationships. And so when something is blurted out, then it can change everything. It changes the nature of your relationship with someone. Maher: And we do have sort of a modern version of the Emperor parable, which is Joe Biden. I mean, he was the Emperor who everyone wouldn't say had lost his marbles. I mean, is that not really the same story? Me: It is the same story, because opinion polls showed that after that disastrous debate with Trump, the number of people who thought that he was cognitively impaired didn't go up by that much. It went up by a few percentage points. But before, a majority of people thought that he was cognitively impaired. The difference is, when it's on TV, where you're watching it, you know that the rest of the country is watching it, you know the rest of the country knows the rest of the country, it's no longer private. It's common. And that's when he was challenged. That was the end. Bill Maher Real Time with Bill Maher

Steven Pinker

272,948 Aufrufe • vor 10 Monaten

the camera being in a tight close up on both ilya and shane for the entirety of this scene, except for the moment when ilya is working up the courage to say he’s in love. it’s like for the whole conversation it’s just the two of them, there’s nobody else who matters, and then for a brief moment the shot widens as ilya considers the implications of the fact he’s in love with shane. the fact that the rest of the world DOES matter and will always be a presence in their relationship. we’ve been held in this moment between the two of them and by widening the shot, that intimacy is broken just for a second as we’re reminded that there is a world beyond the two of them and ilya is still in russia. what he’s doing is incredibly dangerous. then the camera tightens back into a close up as he realises he needs to say it anyway because all that matters is that he’s on the phone with shane and he’s in love with him. it really is just the two of them in this moment and he doesn’t want to let anyone else in.

the camera being in a tight close up on both ilya and shane for the entirety of this scene, except for the moment when ilya is working up the courage to say he’s in love. it’s like for the whole conversation it’s just the two of them, there’s nobody else who matters, and then for a brief moment the shot widens as ilya considers the implications of the fact he’s in love with shane. the fact that the rest of the world DOES matter and will always be a presence in their relationship. we’ve been held in this moment between the two of them and by widening the shot, that intimacy is broken just for a second as we’re reminded that there is a world beyond the two of them and ilya is still in russia. what he’s doing is incredibly dangerous. then the camera tightens back into a close up as he realises he needs to say it anyway because all that matters is that he’s on the phone with shane and he’s in love with him. it really is just the two of them in this moment and he doesn’t want to let anyone else in.

frances 🏒

293,756 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

before Nassim Taleb made his fortune shorting the 2008 collapse, an old veteran on the trading floor gave him a terrifying warning "he grabbed me, pointed to a guy across the room and said: 'you see ed over there? he made $7 million in 7 years... and he just lost it all in exactly 7 seconds'" that was the exact moment Taleb realized that 99% of wall street was playing a rigged game of russian roulette "average funds hide their risk to look smart - they make small, steady profits every single day, completely blind to the fact that one rare event will eventually wipe out their entire existence" "we do the exact opposite - we take tiny, calculated losses every day, and position our entire portfolio to make billions the second the system completely breaks" Taleb didn't build his empire by trying to predict the market. he built it by assuming everyone else is fragile, and waiting for the inevitable hurricane to destroy them watch his legendary stanford masterclass where he breaks down this exact realization

before Nassim Taleb made his fortune shorting the 2008 collapse, an old veteran on the trading floor gave him a terrifying warning "he grabbed me, pointed to a guy across the room and said: 'you see ed over there? he made $7 million in 7 years... and he just lost it all in exactly 7 seconds'" that was the exact moment Taleb realized that 99% of wall street was playing a rigged game of russian roulette "average funds hide their risk to look smart - they make small, steady profits every single day, completely blind to the fact that one rare event will eventually wipe out their entire existence" "we do the exact opposite - we take tiny, calculated losses every day, and position our entire portfolio to make billions the second the system completely breaks" Taleb didn't build his empire by trying to predict the market. he built it by assuming everyone else is fragile, and waiting for the inevitable hurricane to destroy them watch his legendary stanford masterclass where he breaks down this exact realization

ludoonchart

139,281 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Registered nurse/whistleblower Michelle Spencer: "I know a sonographer who's been a sonographer for 40 years. She can look at an ultrasound of a mother, [her] placenta, and she can tell them, you got Pfizer, you got Moderna... it's in the placenta... even if the father got it, the baby is affected." This clip of Spencer (Michelle Spencer) is taken from an interview with Jodi O'Malley (Jodi O'Malley) posted to the NursesOutLoud (Nurses Out Loud) Rumble channel on November 1, 2025. ----------------Partial transcription of clip--------------- "They have not investigated the dead babies. They— They did investigate briefly after my investigation, when I said, you have an obligation to investigate. They went back and they checked, and they found that all of the fetal demises, 95% of them had Covid-vaccinated mothers. So that is a huge amount. "And the other little percent, maybe the record of the mother wasn't in there, because over here in California, they're highly vaxxed. Yes, most of them did get vaccinated because the OB doctor pushes it on them every single time. So they're highly vaxxed. "And then also I know a sonographer who's been a sonographer for 40 years. She can look at an ultrasound of a mother, a placenta, and she can tell them, you got Pfizer, you got Moderna. And if that's crazy, to be able to see that in an ultrasound. And if that patient, the mother, did not get COVID vaccine. The COVID vaccine, that means the father did, and it's in the placenta. So even if the father got it, the baby is affected. "And so there was— There's a huge correlation, it's like an obvious correlation between the COVID vaccine and these dead babies... One of my nursing friends told me a couple weeks after my investigation. She said, yeah, they went back and checked, and they found this correlation. And, she just told me to— Just by by mouth. By word of mouth. And so, now that I've been working with Greg, I've told him that. So he's gonna try to get an order for discovery to go back and check the fetal demises and the COVID-vaxxed mothers, to find the correlation, which is clearly there."

Registered nurse/whistleblower Michelle Spencer: "I know a sonographer who's been a sonographer for 40 years. She can look at an ultrasound of a mother, [her] placenta, and she can tell them, you got Pfizer, you got Moderna... it's in the placenta... even if the father got it, the baby is affected." This clip of Spencer (Michelle Spencer) is taken from an interview with Jodi O'Malley (Jodi O'Malley) posted to the NursesOutLoud (Nurses Out Loud) Rumble channel on November 1, 2025. ----------------Partial transcription of clip--------------- "They have not investigated the dead babies. They— They did investigate briefly after my investigation, when I said, you have an obligation to investigate. They went back and they checked, and they found that all of the fetal demises, 95% of them had Covid-vaccinated mothers. So that is a huge amount. "And the other little percent, maybe the record of the mother wasn't in there, because over here in California, they're highly vaxxed. Yes, most of them did get vaccinated because the OB doctor pushes it on them every single time. So they're highly vaxxed. "And then also I know a sonographer who's been a sonographer for 40 years. She can look at an ultrasound of a mother, a placenta, and she can tell them, you got Pfizer, you got Moderna. And if that's crazy, to be able to see that in an ultrasound. And if that patient, the mother, did not get COVID vaccine. The COVID vaccine, that means the father did, and it's in the placenta. So even if the father got it, the baby is affected. "And so there was— There's a huge correlation, it's like an obvious correlation between the COVID vaccine and these dead babies... One of my nursing friends told me a couple weeks after my investigation. She said, yeah, they went back and checked, and they found this correlation. And, she just told me to— Just by by mouth. By word of mouth. And so, now that I've been working with Greg, I've told him that. So he's gonna try to get an order for discovery to go back and check the fetal demises and the COVID-vaxxed mothers, to find the correlation, which is clearly there."

Sense Receptor

61,416 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

🚨Dr. Beatriz Villarroel Interview With Peter Skafish for the Sol Foundation The conversation turned from astronomy to something much stranger, and potentially historic. Villarroel’s team, working through the VASCO Project, had already published peer reviewed evidence of artificial reflective objects in Earth orbit before Sputnik. But she and collaborator Steven Bruehl have uncovered something else, a triangle of correlations linking transient sky events, above ground nuclear test detonations and well documented UAP sightings. “Steven Bruehl took the samples of nuclear tests, the VASCO transients, and the UFO catalog,” Villarroel explained. “He asked whether these coincidences during events like the 1952 Washington D.C. flap were statistically connected.” The result was a measurable correlation around 3 sigma between UFO events and nuclear tests, and similar correlations linking transients, UAPs and transients and nuclear detonations. That may sound subtle, but statistically, a 3 sigma signal means it’s very unlikely to be random noise, and it directly contradicts the claim that these photographic transients were simply plate defects. “If it were just plate defects, you wouldn’t see correlations appear in time with nuclear tests or UFO flaps,” she said. “This defies that hypothesis.” The idea that nuclear activity attracts non human observation has been part of UFO lore since the 1940s. Now, for the first time, there’s a data driven bridge between the legends and empirical evidence, connecting transient light events, nuclear detonations, and UAP activity. Skafish summed it up: “You don’t just have a correlation between two things, you’ve got a correlation between three, and in all directions.” Whether that means surveillance, energy resonance, or a reactive phenomenon isn’t yet clear. But Villarroel’s work gives future scientists a map of places and times where something, perhaps watching, perhaps responding, seems to manifest when humanity tampers with atomic fire. Watch The Full Interview Here: #BeatrizVillarroel #SolFoundation #VASCOProject #UAP #NuclearCorrelation #Disclosure #SkywatchSignal

🚨Dr. Beatriz Villarroel Interview With Peter Skafish for the Sol Foundation The conversation turned from astronomy to something much stranger, and potentially historic. Villarroel’s team, working through the VASCO Project, had already published peer reviewed evidence of artificial reflective objects in Earth orbit before Sputnik. But she and collaborator Steven Bruehl have uncovered something else, a triangle of correlations linking transient sky events, above ground nuclear test detonations and well documented UAP sightings. “Steven Bruehl took the samples of nuclear tests, the VASCO transients, and the UFO catalog,” Villarroel explained. “He asked whether these coincidences during events like the 1952 Washington D.C. flap were statistically connected.” The result was a measurable correlation around 3 sigma between UFO events and nuclear tests, and similar correlations linking transients, UAPs and transients and nuclear detonations. That may sound subtle, but statistically, a 3 sigma signal means it’s very unlikely to be random noise, and it directly contradicts the claim that these photographic transients were simply plate defects. “If it were just plate defects, you wouldn’t see correlations appear in time with nuclear tests or UFO flaps,” she said. “This defies that hypothesis.” The idea that nuclear activity attracts non human observation has been part of UFO lore since the 1940s. Now, for the first time, there’s a data driven bridge between the legends and empirical evidence, connecting transient light events, nuclear detonations, and UAP activity. Skafish summed it up: “You don’t just have a correlation between two things, you’ve got a correlation between three, and in all directions.” Whether that means surveillance, energy resonance, or a reactive phenomenon isn’t yet clear. But Villarroel’s work gives future scientists a map of places and times where something, perhaps watching, perhaps responding, seems to manifest when humanity tampers with atomic fire. Watch The Full Interview Here: #BeatrizVillarroel #SolFoundation #VASCOProject #UAP #NuclearCorrelation #Disclosure #SkywatchSignal

Skywatch Signal

16,527 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

Chamath: Fraud at this scale will end the American Empire if nothing is done “It is a crucible moment for American society.” “If nothing happens and we deem this kind of theft acceptable, it is the beginning of the end of the American Empire.” “It's just a level of disrespect and lack of care for this country.” “I will be waiting and observing how important it is to root this out, that's number one.” “The second, which is more tactical political calculus, this is an enormous opportunity for the Republican Party if they take this and run with this.” “Is there waste, fraud and abuse in every state? Absolutely. I don't think this is endemically a Democratic problem, but the scale of it is so gargantuan in these Democratic states that if the Republicans don't take advantage of it, I think it is a huge political miscalculation.” “So there is this tactical opportunity, which I think if you want to have a chance in the midterms and if you generally wanna have a chance to level-set the country, you must take this and run with it.” “And then separately, if as Friedberg says, it does die on the vine, it is the beginning of the end of the American Empire, unfortunately.”

Chamath: Fraud at this scale will end the American Empire if nothing is done “It is a crucible moment for American society.” “If nothing happens and we deem this kind of theft acceptable, it is the beginning of the end of the American Empire.” “It's just a level of disrespect and lack of care for this country.” “I will be waiting and observing how important it is to root this out, that's number one.” “The second, which is more tactical political calculus, this is an enormous opportunity for the Republican Party if they take this and run with this.” “Is there waste, fraud and abuse in every state? Absolutely. I don't think this is endemically a Democratic problem, but the scale of it is so gargantuan in these Democratic states that if the Republicans don't take advantage of it, I think it is a huge political miscalculation.” “So there is this tactical opportunity, which I think if you want to have a chance in the midterms and if you generally wanna have a chance to level-set the country, you must take this and run with it.” “And then separately, if as Friedberg says, it does die on the vine, it is the beginning of the end of the American Empire, unfortunately.”

The All-In Podcast

10,555,930 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

A PHYSICS PROFESSOR GAVE THE SAME LECTURE 1,742 TIMES TO WARN ABOUT ONE IDEA QUIETLY BREAKING THE HUMAN RACE. IT IS THE WORD EVERY AI LAB THROWS AROUND TODAY AND ALMOST NONE OF THEM ACTUALLY UNDERSTAND IT. 72 minutes from Albert Bartlett, a University of Colorado physicist, on the one piece of math he called humanity's greatest blind spot. -> The idea that lands: a small steady percentage is never small. 7% a year sounds calm, but it doubles in a decade, doubles again in the next, and quietly runs away from you. He shows it with bacteria in a bottle, with money, with whole cities -- the same curve that looks flat for ages and then explodes almost overnight. Everyone calls that curve "Exponential". He proves most people hear it as "Fast" when it actually means something far more violent. Right now every lab and every headline calls AI exponential. This is the talk that shows you what the word truly does -- so you see both the hype and the real danger the way the math demands. You thought it was a boring math word. It was the whole story the entire time. Save this one. You'll never hear "Exponential" the same way ↓

A PHYSICS PROFESSOR GAVE THE SAME LECTURE 1,742 TIMES TO WARN ABOUT ONE IDEA QUIETLY BREAKING THE HUMAN RACE. IT IS THE WORD EVERY AI LAB THROWS AROUND TODAY AND ALMOST NONE OF THEM ACTUALLY UNDERSTAND IT. 72 minutes from Albert Bartlett, a University of Colorado physicist, on the one piece of math he called humanity's greatest blind spot. -> The idea that lands: a small steady percentage is never small. 7% a year sounds calm, but it doubles in a decade, doubles again in the next, and quietly runs away from you. He shows it with bacteria in a bottle, with money, with whole cities -- the same curve that looks flat for ages and then explodes almost overnight. Everyone calls that curve "Exponential". He proves most people hear it as "Fast" when it actually means something far more violent. Right now every lab and every headline calls AI exponential. This is the talk that shows you what the word truly does -- so you see both the hype and the real danger the way the math demands. You thought it was a boring math word. It was the whole story the entire time. Save this one. You'll never hear "Exponential" the same way ↓

slash1s

99,066 Aufrufe • vor 16 Tagen

Union Square Ventures' Michael Mignano says that when he was at Spotify, Gustav Söderström had a famous saying: "Talk is cheap, so you should talk a lot." "And what he means by that is the cost of getting something wrong is actually way more expensive than the time it takes to talk, align, and earn the right to go invest, spend, or bet on something." "And what I've always loved about USV is that they have a similar philosophy — they talk a lot. It's a small team, but they spend a lot of time together forming their point of view on the world. And I think that's what's given them the edge."

Union Square Ventures' Michael Mignano says that when he was at Spotify, Gustav Söderström had a famous saying: "Talk is cheap, so you should talk a lot." "And what he means by that is the cost of getting something wrong is actually way more expensive than the time it takes to talk, align, and earn the right to go invest, spend, or bet on something." "And what I've always loved about USV is that they have a similar philosophy — they talk a lot. It's a small team, but they spend a lot of time together forming their point of view on the world. And I think that's what's given them the edge."

TBPN

19,636 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Alan Oppenheim, MIT professor: "Jump Trading pays quants $650K to pull one real signal out of market noise. I wrote the textbook on that exact math and taught it for free." this free MIT lecture is the math the whole "quant edge" is built on, and almost nobody selling you a course will name it. the man teaching it wrote the signal-processing textbook every engineer on earth learned from, and he put the lectures online for nothing. here is the idea. a price chart is a signal buried in noise. most of what you see is random static, and hidden inside is a faint, repeating pattern with real mathematics for pulling it out. that is not a metaphor. jim simons was a codebreaker who did exactly this to enemy transmissions, then pointed the same math at the market and made a hundred billion dollars. none of it is new. oppenheim taught this in 1987, the math is older, and every lecture is free. same story i told in the article above. the edge was never a secret formula. it was knowing a market is a noisy signal, and having the tools to read it. here is what the gurus skip. the math to separate signal from noise is free and everyone has it. the edge is cleaner data than the next desk, and the discipline to trust a faint signal across thousands of trades instead of chasing the static. the filter is free. the patience to use it is not.

Alan Oppenheim, MIT professor: "Jump Trading pays quants $650K to pull one real signal out of market noise. I wrote the textbook on that exact math and taught it for free." this free MIT lecture is the math the whole "quant edge" is built on, and almost nobody selling you a course will name it. the man teaching it wrote the signal-processing textbook every engineer on earth learned from, and he put the lectures online for nothing. here is the idea. a price chart is a signal buried in noise. most of what you see is random static, and hidden inside is a faint, repeating pattern with real mathematics for pulling it out. that is not a metaphor. jim simons was a codebreaker who did exactly this to enemy transmissions, then pointed the same math at the market and made a hundred billion dollars. none of it is new. oppenheim taught this in 1987, the math is older, and every lecture is free. same story i told in the article above. the edge was never a secret formula. it was knowing a market is a noisy signal, and having the tools to read it. here is what the gurus skip. the math to separate signal from noise is free and everyone has it. the edge is cleaner data than the next desk, and the discipline to trust a faint signal across thousands of trades instead of chasing the static. the filter is free. the patience to use it is not.

Rossst.03

269,381 Aufrufe • vor 9 Tagen

Sam Altman on why you shouldn’t track absolute user growth in the early days of a startup “Nothing but a great product will save you; you can get everything else right and it still won’t work.” He points out that almost all startup founders get the following wrong: “It is more important to have a small number of users that love you than a lot of users that like you… Eventually what you want of course is a lot of users that really love your product, but that’s almost impossible to do.” In practice, you have two choices: Deep and Narrow: “You have a small number of users that really love you and then find out how to find more and more of those users and broaden the appeal of the product.” Shallow and Wide: “You can have a lot of people that sort of use the product once or twice and kind of like it and try to figure out how to get them more engaged over time.” “With high confidence, I can say that you want to start with a small number of users that really love you. Almost all great companies have products that start this way.” He argues that a good indicator of users loving your product is retention and frequency of use: “In fact, I think this is so important that you actually shouldn’t track absolute growth in number of users in the early days of a startup. You should just track how often they’re using it… That’s a good early indicator of users that love you—better still is them spontaneously telling their friends to buy your product.” Follow Startup Archive for more tactical startup advice!

Sam Altman on why you shouldn’t track absolute user growth in the early days of a startup “Nothing but a great product will save you; you can get everything else right and it still won’t work.” He points out that almost all startup founders get the following wrong: “It is more important to have a small number of users that love you than a lot of users that like you… Eventually what you want of course is a lot of users that really love your product, but that’s almost impossible to do.” In practice, you have two choices: Deep and Narrow: “You have a small number of users that really love you and then find out how to find more and more of those users and broaden the appeal of the product.” Shallow and Wide: “You can have a lot of people that sort of use the product once or twice and kind of like it and try to figure out how to get them more engaged over time.” “With high confidence, I can say that you want to start with a small number of users that really love you. Almost all great companies have products that start this way.” He argues that a good indicator of users loving your product is retention and frequency of use: “In fact, I think this is so important that you actually shouldn’t track absolute growth in number of users in the early days of a startup. You should just track how often they’re using it… That’s a good early indicator of users that love you—better still is them spontaneously telling their friends to buy your product.” Follow Startup Archive for more tactical startup advice!

Startup Archive

565,774 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

"The whole problem of this global warming is a complete nothing," Dr. Willie Soon told Tucker Carlson. He says he's 90% sure the sun, not carbon dioxide, is causing climate change and that the climate czars are so out of their minds that they are misleading the public. "I really find that the whole problem of this global warming is a complete nothing, which means we should do nothing about it. Just go on and live life and adapt to it." This message will never make the TV news. You should probably share it for others to see.

"The whole problem of this global warming is a complete nothing," Dr. Willie Soon told Tucker Carlson. He says he's 90% sure the sun, not carbon dioxide, is causing climate change and that the climate czars are so out of their minds that they are misleading the public. "I really find that the whole problem of this global warming is a complete nothing, which means we should do nothing about it. Just go on and live life and adapt to it." This message will never make the TV news. You should probably share it for others to see.

The Vigilant Fox 🦊

776,426 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

Naval Ravikant: “Human creativity is non-linear” “The right idea can be worth almost infinitely more than the wrong idea. And so it’s only a small number of innovators that are needed to really drive any endeavor you can imagine…. Assembling a small number of the right people to interact with each other will drive everything.” Naval continues: “Every revolution - whether it’s scientific, political, technological, or physical - is driven by a small number of like-minded people who are at the cutting edge of thought, getting together and brainstorming with each other.” This is as true of the Founding Founders as it is of many of the great companies in Silicon Valley. Naval argues: “You just need to figure out how to get a small number of very innovative people in the same idea space together and cooperating with each other to create the next round of institutions… A few dozen, a few hundred, a few thousand people can come up with the right ideas that will completely change things for everybody.” Video source: Balaji Naval (2024)

Naval Ravikant: “Human creativity is non-linear” “The right idea can be worth almost infinitely more than the wrong idea. And so it’s only a small number of innovators that are needed to really drive any endeavor you can imagine…. Assembling a small number of the right people to interact with each other will drive everything.” Naval continues: “Every revolution - whether it’s scientific, political, technological, or physical - is driven by a small number of like-minded people who are at the cutting edge of thought, getting together and brainstorming with each other.” This is as true of the Founding Founders as it is of many of the great companies in Silicon Valley. Naval argues: “You just need to figure out how to get a small number of very innovative people in the same idea space together and cooperating with each other to create the next round of institutions… A few dozen, a few hundred, a few thousand people can come up with the right ideas that will completely change things for everybody.” Video source: Balaji Naval (2024)

Startup Archive

13,709 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Elon Musk :The biggest source of energy by far is the sun. So nothing even comes close to the sun in terms of energy output The sun converts over 4 million tons of mass to energy per second. And it’s been doing that for a very long time, and will do that for many billions of years to come So, one of the ways you can think of the progress of any given civilization is on the Kardashev scale. And so, just a simple way of thinking about it is: ➝ You’re a Kardashev Level One if you’ve harnessed all the power of a planet ➝ You’re Two if you’ve harnessed all the power of a solar system ➝ And you’re Three if you’ve harnessed the power of a galaxy. We’re very far from Three, it’s safe to say. But even from One So when you think in Kardashev terms, it becomes very obvious that the sun is overwhelmingly the source of energy and everything else is tiny potatoes. Tiny potatoes are fine for now, but the sun is overwhelmingly the big potato. The humongous potato So it’s really harnessing the power of the sun that will lead us to the stars

Elon Musk :The biggest source of energy by far is the sun. So nothing even comes close to the sun in terms of energy output The sun converts over 4 million tons of mass to energy per second. And it’s been doing that for a very long time, and will do that for many billions of years to come So, one of the ways you can think of the progress of any given civilization is on the Kardashev scale. And so, just a simple way of thinking about it is: ➝ You’re a Kardashev Level One if you’ve harnessed all the power of a planet ➝ You’re Two if you’ve harnessed all the power of a solar system ➝ And you’re Three if you’ve harnessed the power of a galaxy. We’re very far from Three, it’s safe to say. But even from One So when you think in Kardashev terms, it becomes very obvious that the sun is overwhelmingly the source of energy and everything else is tiny potatoes. Tiny potatoes are fine for now, but the sun is overwhelmingly the big potato. The humongous potato So it’s really harnessing the power of the sun that will lead us to the stars

X Freeze

69,603 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

This is the best webcam I've ever tried (and I've tried a bunch!) I've been using the first Insta360 Link for about two years, and they sent me a preproduction version of the new Insta360 Link 2 so I could test it. Three weeks later, and I love it! Highlights: • 4K HDR • AI Noise Cancelling (with three modes) • AI tracking • Desk view • Smart whiteboard mode • Virtual backgrounds The webcam is probably 100x times better than the built-in Macbook Pro webcam. Honestly, it's not even fair to mention this. Pro tip: when on a call, set the webcam's microphone to isolate your voice, and the people on the other side of the call will hear you and nothing else. The video will show you a bit more. Check out the smart whiteboard mode because it's one of my favorite features. Webcams are a big deal for me because I teach a class online. I've tried *everything*, and so far, nothing compares. Here is a link: Thanks to Insta360 for sending me a free webcam and sponsoring this post!

This is the best webcam I've ever tried (and I've tried a bunch!) I've been using the first Insta360 Link for about two years, and they sent me a preproduction version of the new Insta360 Link 2 so I could test it. Three weeks later, and I love it! Highlights: • 4K HDR • AI Noise Cancelling (with three modes) • AI tracking • Desk view • Smart whiteboard mode • Virtual backgrounds The webcam is probably 100x times better than the built-in Macbook Pro webcam. Honestly, it's not even fair to mention this. Pro tip: when on a call, set the webcam's microphone to isolate your voice, and the people on the other side of the call will hear you and nothing else. The video will show you a bit more. Check out the smart whiteboard mode because it's one of my favorite features. Webcams are a big deal for me because I teach a class online. I've tried everything, and so far, nothing compares. Here is a link: Thanks to Insta360 for sending me a free webcam and sponsoring this post!

Santiago

27,304 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr