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NEWS: New Texas EDGE commit Jabarrius Garror is already doing some recruiting 👀 He told Saraland 2028 4-star EDGE Keoni “Peek-A-Boo” Snipes where home is 😅 #Hookem🤘🏾 Keoni “Peek-A-Boo“ Snipes 4⭐️ EDGE

59,134 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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🚨 BREAKING: The sports 5m & 15m Polymarket Clawdbot configuration with the strongest results just went public. This is NOT engagement farming. And it’s NOT fiction.If you’re trading on Polymarket, read this carefully. He reportedly started with around $100–200 and scaled it to roughly $2M.No insider access. No political backchannels. Just a developer who built his own script. Profile - Copytrade - Right now, it’s being called the fastest Polymarket copy-trading bot available. I went through the framework. No massive data pipelines. No absurd infrastructure. Nothing resembling rocket science. I spent 4–6 hours dissecting the full logic. The core strategy breaks down like this: “Free money” via NO positions The bot targets near-zero probability outcomes and accumulates a large number of small, high-probability wins. Not random betting — systematic risk harvesting. Logic arbitrage When outcome A logically guarantees outcome B but pricing hasn’t adjusted, it executes instantly. By the time a human reacts to the headline, the edge is gone. Humans can’t compete with that execution speed. The real edge — sports and politics These markets are dominated by retail flow and delayed emotional reactions. The bot clips small gains from repeated micro-mispricings. Scale is the edge. 2,958 trades on their own mean nothing. Combined, they compounded into roughly ~$2M in profit. Largest single gain: $1,464,152. Equity curve: nearly vertical. Bottom line: A silent bot arms race may already be unfolding on Polymarket. Crypto markets are saturated, slower, and fee-heavy. Sports and political prediction markets remain fragmented and inefficient — fertile ground for automation.

Discover

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I rebuilt my Polymarket weather bot Launched a simulation with $1,000 An hour later, it was already $1,250. Another hour later - $680 The problem was simple: the forecast changed, but the bot didn't know about it and continued to hold its position That's exactly what I'm fixing in version v2 What I'm adding: 1. Expected Value EV = (p · b) − (1 − p) Before every entry the bot calculates expected value. Negative EV - no trade. But EV is useless if p comes from nowhere 2. Kelly Criterion f* = (p · b − q) / b Determines exactly how much to bet based on real edge Small edge → small position. Large edge → larger. Fixed sizing can't do this 3. Brier Score BS = (1/n) · Σ(fₜ − oₜ)² Measures how accurate our probabilities actually are. If the bot assigned 80% but the outcome won 40% of the time - Brier Score catches that 4. Calibration on own data After each trade the bot saves city, month, bucket, forecast at entry, final result History accumulates → bot calculates Brier Score on its own trades → if Chicago in March is consistently off - p for that city and month gets adjusted automatically 5. Adding new data sources Instead of relying on a single source, the bot will draw on several sources at once, and if the forecasts match, it will enter into a trade Every cycle of v2: - scan markets - check station forecast - apply calibration - calculate EV - apply Kelly - enter or skip - monitor every minute - close if forecast changes Btw, here's a short video clip showing the terminal in action A major update is coming soon

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50,642 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

Last Thursday I was having dinner with a friend at a regular shawarma spot near the subway. A guy he knew was sitting with us. Around 21, maybe 22. Hoodie, AirPods, beat-up backpack When the check came he grabbed it without a word. No discussion. Just tapped his phone and paid for all 3 of us My friend was not even surprised. Apparently this was not the first time I asked: what do you do? He said: "I copy wallets on Polymarket" I thought it was a joke. Or some trading guru with a $500 course But he explained it simpler than I expected "On Polymarket there are wallets that are consistently in profit. Not on 1 bet but on dozens in a row. I do not try to guess who wins the election or what the weather will be in Dallas. I just look at what a wallet with a 70+ win rate is doing and repeat it" He did not build models. Did not write scripts. Did not analyze news He opened Telegram and showed me a channel. Simple messages: wallet X entered position Y, price Z cents, market such and such Then he opened Polymarket and showed me his balance I am not going to name the exact number because he did not ask for that. But I will say this: it is enough for a guy in a rented apartment with 3 roommates to casually pay for dinner for 3 and not think twice I asked: "How did you figure out which wallet to follow?" He shrugged "That is the easiest part. Polymarket is blockchain. All trades are open. You go to the leaderboard, filter by win rate, look at history. If a wallet consistently enters positions at 3 to 8 cents and closes at a dollar that is not luck. That is an information edge" Then he added something that made me freeze "The funniest part is I do not even need to understand why he bets. I do not know where he gets his information. Maybe he is an insider. Maybe he has a model. Maybe he just reads news faster. I do not care. I see that he entered and I enter a minute later. The price usually has not moved yet" I came home and could not fall asleep Opened Polymarket. Went to the leaderboard. Started digging An hour later I found the wallet he was talking about → Starting balance was negative. Current balance is a 5-figure number. Win rate above 73%. Average entry 4 to 7 cents. Average win covers 10 to 15 losses I started monitoring it manually. Set alarms. Checked every 2 hours By day 3 I realized I cannot live like this I needed the same thing that guy had. A signal in Telegram that comes on its own the moment the wallet opens a position I found a bot that does exactly that → No delays. No manual monitoring. Wallet enters and you get a notification What you do with it is up to you. Copy it exactly, use it as a signal, or just observe 2 weeks have passed. I have not become that guy from the shawarma spot. Yet But I stopped guessing. And started copying Right now somewhere a smart wallet is opening a new position. The question is whether you find out about it in a second or in 24 hours when the price has already moved

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122,780 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

A Citadel quant sat down next to me at Verve on Gough and asked why my laptop had four terminals open I was scanning Polymarket. Four panes. Each one a different agent. He was killing time before a flight. Saw the screens. "Is that a multi-agent setup on prediction markets. Who's orchestrating" Claude. One prompt per agent. They don't share memory. Only a queue file. He pulled up a chair. "Walk me through. I do this for equities at work. I want to see your agent separation" Agent 1 is the scanner. I piped raw JSON from the official Polymarket CLI straight into Claude and told it to score every live market on three things. Edge against my probability estimate. Book depth on both sides. Hours to resolution. Thresholds kill 93% of markets before the brain ever sees them. Edge under 7 cents gone. Depth under $500 gone. Under 4 hours to resolution gone. Over 168 gone. 487 live markets collapse to 35. "Seven cents is your transaction cost buffer" Yes. Below that the gas and spread eat the trade. A green fill popped. +$52 on a BTC dominance market. "And the brain" Agent 2. Runs four checks on every survivor. Base rate from history. News in the last six hours. Whether any of the 47 top wallets are currently holding. And a disposition check - is the crowd making a known cognitive error. Three out of four must agree. Otherwise drop it. 86 million trades. I let Claude rank every wallet with 100+ fills and a 70%+ win rate. It returned 47 names in four minutes. Top 20 wallets made more than the bottom 13,000 combined. "Concentration like that means the signal is there. Most retail books look like a normal curve. Yours looks like power law" Kelly sizing does the rest. Capped at quarter Kelly. If f-star goes negative the trade dies no matter how confident I feel. "Overbet once and the bankroll is gone. You respect that. Good" Agent 3 is execution. Three strategies pulled out of a 53k line Typescript repo. Arbitrage across related markets. Convergence when price moves toward my estimate. Whale copy with a 60 second delay on the 47 wallets. Two agents agree full position. One agent only half. Disagreement no trade. "What did you cut" Sports. 52% win rate. Already priced in before the scanner flags it. Markets under $50k in depth. Slippage makes every edge a coin flip. Holding to settlement. The top wallets exit at 73% of max profit every time. I copied that. Agent 4 watches exits. Three triggers. Target hit at 85% of expected move. Volume spike 3x the ten minute average. Thesis stale 24 hours with no movement. "91% of the smart wallets exit before resolution. That's the trade" Yeah. Being right is not the same as being profitable. Setup: Claude API $20 Hetzner VPS $5 Four repos free Total $25 a month $200 seed. 27 days ago. $14,300 now. 271 trades. 74% win rate. Sharpe 2.47. Copy here: "How long did the build take" Two weekends. One to wire the scanner and the CLI. One to get the agents talking through the queue file. He watched the volume exit trigger fire on a Fed cut market. Position closed at 0.71. +$184. "Nobody at my shop runs four agents on their own money. We run eight on the firm's. You got the same structure on a laptop for the price of a sandwich a month" He asked for the repos. I sent them. He messaged me from the gate. "Publishing this tomorrow. My PM is going to ask me why I didn't do it first" I told him his PM already has a Bloomberg. That's the problem.

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